All Star Market Timing

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - November 12, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The bulls had a great day on Friday and the SPX closed above SPX 4400 and closed above the weekly downtrend line from from July. The $TRIN-5 also closed above 6.0 (oversold) on Thursday and Friday which is short-term bullish. The bulls are looking to extend the highs on Monday/Tuesday. On the bearish side, the SPX looks to have traced out an EW 5-wave higher on the daily chart from 10/27 which argues for a pullback on Monday - just a 3-wave pullback into Monday/Tuesday would be bullish for higher SPX highs. We believe that the bond technicals are more important than the stock technicals at this point. The bad 10-yr US bond auction and the bad 30-yr US bond auction last week argue for higher 10-yr US rates in the short term. Tuesday was a 3-star critical reversal day and we may have seen the short-term high on Friday. The markets bulls believe that a year-end stock rally has begun, however, we believe that the rally is corrective and we will see lower SPX lows by late November/early December as the US economy continues to weaken. The big stock rally the last two weeks was ignited by a vicious short covering rally in the bond futures which may have ended on Friday. The SPX traced out a 5-wave from 10/27 to 11/10 and that could be a Wave A of a large EW a-b-c correction into late November.  In the short-term, we are now looking for at least a 3-wave pullback in the SPX into Wednesday. The time spiral that caused the damage into 10/27/23 was from the 9/11/01 panic down day, but the stock market was actually shut down from 9/11-9/21 so that actually gave us some uncertainty in the timing of the next down leg - it could start Monday/Tuesday on the two trading days after the 3-star critical reversal day for the SPX on Friday. We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We've added shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA on rallies - we're hanging on to these shares for more selling in late November/December. If we get a retest of the 10/27 low at SPX 4103 by late November, selling these shares would be optimal. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

11/12/23 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX corrected after the poor 30-yr bond auction on Thursday but we rallied late Friday and closed above SPX 4400 which had the bulls salivating into the weekend. The close above the weekly downtrend line from July also looks short-term bullish. The Option Premium Ratio gave us three Sell Signals on 11/2, 11/3 and 11/7 which argue for a pullback on Monday/Tuesday. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA shares on a retest of SPX 4260 if they are in profit territory or on a retest of SPX 4103 in late November early December. It will take an impulsive leg down below SPX 4100 to get us really short-term bearish in late November.  We are looking for a pullback in the SPX by Monday/Tuesday. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade by Moody Friday after the close and global rise in long rates should stretch the SPX and NDX decline into late November/early December despite the recent rally in the bonds. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold tested $1937 on Friday and is bouncing to $1943 Sunday evening. We are looking for a better time for gold this week.

Stocks –  The SPX blasted off late Friday and closed above 4400 which is short-term bullish. 

Gold – The COTS came in negative for gold again on 11/7 and we saw that play out into Friday's test of $1936. Still, the Israeli-Hamas war could be the catalyst that drives gold to an ATH but trading gold in the short-term has been difficult.   

Silver – Silver stocks have been weaker than silver and that held the PM sector back last week. 

Bonds – Bonds are testing 113'05 Sunday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding up around 105.74 Sunday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/13-11/14.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 9, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: After three Option Premium sell signals, finally gave us a down day. - The ES gave us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart just after the close. A look at our solar-lunar table shows 5-days down of very low volatility for the NDX which we saw this week and a pickup for volatility starting tomorrow which we interpret as more downside. The bad US 30-yr bond auction was the catalyst for today's selloff and Chairman Powell's remarks seemed more hawkish than his remarks on Fed Wednesday last week.  Tuesday was a 3-star critical reversal day and we may have seen a short-term high today. The markets bulls believe that a year-end stock rally has begun, however, we believe that the rally is corrective and we will see lower SPX lows by late November/December as the US economy continues to weaken. The big stock rally last week was ignited by a vicious short covering rally in the bond futures which may have ended today. Three Option Premium Sell Signals on 11/2, 11/3 and 11/7:  an "island reversal pattern" (0.69,.94,.64) on 11/2 and a back-to-back value of 0.61 on 11/3 and 4 consecutive declining values ending on 11/7, which argued for a down day by mid-week. The SPX has just traced out a 3-wave corrective pattern from 10/27 and that could be a Wave A of a large EW a-b-c correction into 11/17 -  in the short-term, we are now looking for at least a SPX pullback to 4250-4260 for a Wave B down. The time spiral that caused the damage into 10/27/23 was from the 9/11/01 panic down day, but the stock market was actually shut down from 9/11-9/21 so that actually gave us some uncertainty in the timing of the next down leg - it could start Wednesday/Thursday on the two days after the 3-star critical reversal day for the SPX. We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We've added shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA on rallies - we're hanging on to these shares for more selling in late November/December. If we get a retest of the 10/27 low at SPX 4103 this week or next, selling these shares would be optimal. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups and accumulate SQQQ and SPXS on market rallies on a downtrend from late July. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

11/09/23 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX corrected after the poor 30-yr bond auction and we appear poised for more decline on 11/10-11/13. SPX 4400 provides stiff resistance this week and we see this as a sign of weakness. The ES finished 5-waves down on the hourly after the close and this is a Sell Signal that should give us more selling on Friday/Monday. The Option Premium Ratio gave us three Sell Signals on Thursday, Friday and Tuesday which argue for a pullback on Wednesday/Thursday. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA shares on a retest of SPX 4260 if they are in profit territory or on a retest of SPX 4103 in late November early December. It will take an impulsive leg down below SPX 4100 to get us really short-term bearish in November. The time spiral from 9/11/2001 pressured the SPX down into 10/27 and the timing of the next down move could be Wednesday/Thursday. We were looking for a pullback in the SPX by mid-week week and potentially a hard down by 11/10-11/13.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should stretch the SPX and NDX decline into November/December despite the recent bounce in the bonds. The SPX held up into early Thursday but the bad 30-yr bond auction and hawkish comments from Powell gave us a bearish engulfing candle in the SPX today.  

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold pulled back to $1948 early Thursday before rebounding to $1962. A move down to the $1930s is still possible by Friday.

Stocks –  The SPX held up into Thursday before a bad 30-yr bond auction and hawkish comments from Powell gave us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart and a Sell Signal. The SPX should at least retest the gap at SPX 4260 by Friday/Monday. 

Gold – The COTS came in negative for gold after the close on 11/3 and we saw that play out into early Thursday on a pullback to $1948. Still, the Israeli-Hamas war could be the catalyst that drives gold to an ATH but trading gold in the short-term has been difficult.   

Silver – Silver stocks have been weaker than silver and that has held the PM sector back this week. 

Bonds – Bonds pulled back to 113'06 Thursday evening as the 10-yr rate rebounded.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding up around 105.89 Thursday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/6-11/7 and 11/10.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 8, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX continue to consolidate sideways and are being held up by the Magnificent 7 tech stocks. The SPX could still spike above 4400 before reversing in a B-Wave of a 3-wave correction. The IWM, without the Mag 7 weighting, has declined in an EW 5-waves on the hourly chart - this is a Sell Signal. The SPX could hold up into Friday and we are playing it close to the chest. We are short-term bullish on the SPX and NDX but intermediate bearish as we are looking for lower SPX lows into late November and December as the US economy slows. We've added shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA on rallies - we're hanging on to these shares for more selling in late November/December. If we get a retest of the 10/27 low at SPX 4103 this week or next, selling these shares would be optimal. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups and accumulate SQQQ and SPXS on market rallies on a downtrend from late July. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week is 11/6-11/7 and 11/10.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 7, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX held up on Tuesday as the stock market continued its consolidation from last week's big rally. - it just did a sideways correction which argues for another rally attempt above SPX 4400 early Wednesday. Today was a 3-star critical reversal day and  we could see a short-term high by tomorrow. The markets bulls believe that a year-end stock rally has begun, however, we believe that the rally is corrective and we will see lower SPX lows by December as the US economy continues to weaken. The big stock rally last week was started by US bond volatility driven by highly-leveraged bond futures trading - this bond rally was not driven by cash buying of US bonds but by the levered hands of bond futures traders who could reverse the bond futures back down on one surprise economic report.  The Option Premium Ratio gave us three Sell  Signals on Thursday, Friday and Tuesday:  an "island reversal pattern" (0.69,.94,.64) on Thursday and a back-to-back value of 0.61 on Thursday/Friday and 4 consecutive declining values on Tuesday, which argues for a down day by Wednesday. The SPX has just traced out a 3-wave corrective pattern from 10/27 and that could be a Wave A of a large EW a-b-c correction into 11/17 -  in the short-term, we are now looking for at least a SPX pullback to 4250-4260 for a Wave B down. The time spiral that caused the damage into 10/27/23 was from the 9/11/01 panic down day, but the stock market was actually shut down from 9/11-9/21 so that actually gave us some uncertainty in the timing of the next down leg - it could start Wednesday on the day after the 3-star critical reversal day for the SPX. We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We've added shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA on rallies - we're hanging on to these shares for more selling in late November/December. If we get a retest of the 10/27 low at SPX 4103 this week or next, selling these shares would be optimal. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups and accumulate SQQQ and SPXS on market rallies on a downtrend from late July. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

11/07/23 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX continued to hold up after the NFP jobs report on Friday but the pattern still looks corrective. Even so, we saw more consolidation in the SPX pattern which suggests a thrust above SPX 4400 before we get a real retracement. We got a Zweig breadth thrust buy signal on Thursday that argues for a 3-wave SPX rally pattern into 11/17. The SPX gapped over its previous 4th wave at SPX 4260 early Thursday and continued higher in a gap-and-go day. However, the Option Premium Ratio has given us three Sell Signals on Thursday, Friday and Tuesday which argue for a pullback on Wednesday.  We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA shares on a retest of SPX 4260 if they are in profit territory or on a retest of SPX 4103 in late November early December. It will take an impulsive leg down below SPX 4100 to get us really short-term bearish in November. The time spiral from 9/11/2001 pressured the SPX down into 10/27 and the timing of the next down move could be Wednesday. We are looking for a pullback in the SPX sometime this week. Gold tested $1962 on Tuesday before a rebound to $1974 Tuesday evening.  The market built up  "put hedges" over several weekends in October in case of a flare up in the Israel-Hamas war - we didn't see that happen on Friday, Nov. 3.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should stretch the SPX and NDX decline into November/December despite the recent bounce in the bonds. The SPX rallied after the NFP report on Friday and held up into Tuesday - but we may see a pullback start on Wednesday.  

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold closed at $1999 Friday but continued to pullback to $1962 on Tuesday before a rebound to $1974 evening. The weekly close above the downtrend line on 10/27 was bullish for gold. We could see a major breakout for gold by late November.

Stocks –  The SPX held up again on Tuesday in what we count as Wave A of a large EW a-b-c correction. Tuesday was a 3-star critical reversal day which may turn the SPX down in a Wave B by tomorrow. The SPX should at least retest the gap at SPX 4260 Wednesday/Thursday. 

Gold – The COTS came in negative for gold after the close on Friday and we pulled back to $1962 Tuesday before bouncing to $1974. The Israeli-Hamas war could be the catalyst that drives gold to an ATH but trading gold in the short-term has been difficult.   

Silver – After early weakness, silver is bouncing to $22.56 Tuesday evening.

Bonds – Bonds are testing 113'130 Tuesday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding up around 105.60 Tuesday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/6-11/7.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 6, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX did not pull back on Monday - it just did a sideways correction which argues for another rally attempt early Tuesday. Tuesday is a 3-star critical reversal day and  we could see a short-term high. The markets bulls believe that a year-end stock rally has begun, however, we believe that the rally is corrective and we will see lower SPX lows by December as the US economy continues to weaken. In addition, the Option Premium Ratio gave us two Sell Signals on Thursday and Friday:  an "island reversal pattern" (0.69,.94,.64) on Thursday and a back-to-back value of 0.61 on Thursday and Friday  which argues for a down day by Tuesday. The SPX has just traced out a 3-wave corrective pattern from 10/27 and that could be a Wave A of a large EW a-b-c correction into 11/17 - however, in the short-term, we are now looking for at least a SPX pullback to 4250-4260. The time spiral that caused the damage into 10/27/23 was from the 9/11/01 panic down day, but the stock market was actually shut down from 9/11-9/21 so that actually gave us some uncertainty in the timing of the next down leg - it could start Tuesday on the 3-star critical reversal day for the SPX. We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We've added shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA on rallies - we're hanging on to these shares for more selling in late November/December. If we get a retest of the 10/27 low at SPX 4103 this week or next, selling these shares would be optimal. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups and accumulate SQQQ and SPXS on market rallies on a downtrend from late July. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

11/06/23 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX continued to hold up after the NFP jobs report on Friday but the pattern still looks corrective. We got a Zweig breadth thrust buy signal on Thursday that argues for a 3-wave SPX rally pattern into 11/17. The SPX gapped over its previous 4th wave at SPX 4260 early Thursday and continued higher in a gap-and-go day. However, the Option Premium Ratio has given us two Sell Signals on Thursday and Friday - an "island reversal pattern" on Thursday's close and a back-to-back value of 0.61 sell signal on Friday's close which argues for a down day on Monday. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA shares on a retest of SPX 4260 if they are in profit territory or on a retest of SPX 4103 in late November early December. It will take an impulsive leg down below SPX 4100 to get us really short-term bearish in November. The time spiral from 9/11/2001 pressured the SPX down into 10/27 and the timing of the next down move could be Monday/Tuesday. We are looking for a pullback in the SPX early this week. Gold is trading at $1975 Monday evening as the COTS once again came in negative for gold. The last several Fridays have seen the market build in "put hedges" over the weekend in case of a flare up in the Israel-Hamas war - we didn't see that much on Friday, Nov. 3.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should stretch the SPX and NDX decline into November/December despite the recent bounce in the bonds. The SPX rallied after the NFP report on Friday and held up on Monday - but we may see a pullback start on Tuesday.  

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold closed at $1999 Friday but continued to pullback to $1975 Monday evening. The weekly close above the downtrend line on 10/27 was bullish for gold. We could see a major breakout for gold by late November.

Stocks –  The SPX held up Monday in what we count as Wave A of a large EW a-b-c correction. Tuesday is a 3-star critical reversal day which may turn the SPX down in a Wave B. The SPX should at least retest the gap at SPX 4260 Tuesday/Wednesday. 

Gold – The COTS came in negative for gold after the close on Friday and we pulled back to $1975 Monday evening. The Israeli-Hamas war could be the catalyst that drives gold to an ATH but trading gold in the short-term has been difficult.   

Silver – Silver is pulling back to $22.83 Monday evening.

Bonds – Bonds pulled back into Monday and tested 112'19 Monday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD declined to 104.85 early Monday and bounced to 105.53 Monday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/6-11/7.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - November 5, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX continued its rally after a weaker-than-expected NFP jobs report early Friday that implies a weakening economy. Last weak, we saw a perfect storm for the stock market bulls - Janet Yellen opted for more T-bills instead of more 10-yr, 30-yr bonds for in the US Treasury funding announcement and that knocked the 10-yr rate back down to 4.56% by Friday's close. Chairman Powell gave us no rate hike on Fed Wednesday and set a "dovish tone" which excited the bulls. Also, both the ADP jobs report on Wednesday and the NFP jobs report on Friday came in weaker than expected and suggested a weakening economy that helped lower the 10-yr US rate into Friday. The markets bulls believe that a year-end stock rally has begun. However, we believe that the rally is corrective and we will see lower SPX lows in December/January as the US economy continues to weaken. In addition, the Option Premium Ratio gave us two Sells Signal on Thursday and Friday:  an "island reversal pattern" (0.69,.94,.64) on Thursday and a back-to-back value of 0.61 on Thursday and Friday  which argues for a down day on Monday. The SPX has just traced out a 3-wave corrective pattern from 10/27 and that could be a Wave A of a large EW a-b-c correction into 11/17 - however, in the short-term, we are now looking for at least a SPX pullback to 4250-4260. The market got what it wanted from the Fed. The time spiral that caused the damage into 10/27/23 was from the 9/11/01 panic down day, but the stock market was actually shut down from 9/11-9/21 so that actually gave us some uncertainty in the timing of the next down leg - it could start Monday after the NFP jobs report. We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We've added shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA on rallies - we're hanging on to these shares for more selling in late November/December. If we get a retest of the 10/27 low at SPX 4103 on Monday/Tuesday, selling these shares would be optimal. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups and accumulate SQQQ and SPXS on market rallies on a downtrend from late July. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

11/05/23 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX continued its rally after the NFP jobs report on Friday but the pattern still looks corrective. We got a Zweig breadth thrust buy signal on Thursday that argues for a 3-wave SPX rally pattern into 11/17. The SPX gapped over its previous 4th wave at SPX 4260 early Thursday and continued higher in a gap-and-go day. However, the Option Premium Ratio has given us two Sell Signals on Thursday and Friday - an "island reversal pattern" on Thursday's close and a back-to-back value of 0.61 sell signal on Friday's close which argues for a down day on Monday. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA shares on a retest of SPX 4260 if they are in profit territory or on a retest of SPX 4103 in late November early December. It will take an impulsive leg down below SPX 4100 to get us really short-term bearish in November. The time spiral from 9/11/2001 pressured the SPX down into 10/27 and the timing of the next down move could be Monday/Tuesday. We are looking for a pullback in the SPX early this week. Gold is trading at $1999 Sunday evening as the COTS once again came in negative for gold. The last several Fridays have seen the market build in "put hedges" over the weekend in case of a flare up in the Israel-Hamas war - we didn't see that much on Friday, Nov. 3.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should stretch the SPX and NDX decline into November/December despite the recent bounce in the bonds. The SPX rallied on after the NFP report on Friday - but we may see a pullback start on Monday.  

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold closed at $1999 Friday but is not getting that much of a bounce with the 10-yr US rate pulling back. The weekly close above the downtrend line on 10/27 was bullish for gold. We could see a major breakout for gold by late November.

Stocks –  The SPX closed higher again on Friday which we count as Wave A of a large EW a-b-c correction. The SPX should at least retest the gap at SPX 4260 Monday/Tuesday and we could see a B-Wave low this week. We need to see an impulsive leg below SPX 4100 to get really bearish in the short term.

Gold – Gold closed above its downtrend line on 10/27 and that is bullish. Gold is hanging around $1999 Sunday night as the COTs came in bearish after the close on Friday. The Israeli-Hamas war could be the catalyst that drives gold to an ATH.   

Silver – Silver is holding above its Person's pivot at $23.16 Sunday evening.

Bonds – Bonds are pulling back to 113'10 Sunday evening after its post-NFP jobs report spike to 114'27 early Friday.

Dollar Index – The USD declined to 104.94 early Friday and have only gotten a minimal bounce to 105.10 Sunday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/6-11/7.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 2, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX had a big rally day which started as a gap up over the previous 4th wave at 4260 and then gave us a gap-and-go day. The VIX and VXX continued to melt down and encourage the bulls. However, the Option Premium Ratio gave us an "island reversal pattern" (0.69,.94,.64) the last three market days which argues for a big down day on Friday. We have the NFP jobs report early Friday which should set the short-term market tone. The SPX has just traced out a 3-wave corrective pattern from 10/27 and we are now looking for at least a retest of the 10/27 low at 4103. The market got wanted it wanted from the Fed - a dovish "no more rate hike" hint from Chairman Powell on Wednesday and that launched the big rally today. The NFP jobs report on Friday should also be a market mover. The time spiral that caused the damage into 10/27/23 was from the 9/11/01 panic down day, but the stock market was actually shut down from 9/11-9/21 so that actually gave us some uncertainty in the timing of the next down leg - it could start Friday after the NFP jobs report. The earnings from AAPL have not been received well after hours and could contribute to a down day on Friday. The SPX was oversold by many measures last Friday, but closing above SPX 4200 on a Fed Wednesday was bullish - if we just get a 3-wave correction on Friday/Monday, that could argue for another leg higher. We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We've added shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA on rallies for quick trades. If we get a retest of the 10/27 low at SPX 4103 on Friday/Monday, selling these shares would be optimal. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups and accumulate SQQQ and SPXS on market rallies. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

11/02/23 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX continued its rally on Thursday but the pattern from Friday still looks corrective. The SPX gapped over its previous 4th wave at SPX 4260 and continued higher in a gap-and-go day. However, the Option Premium Ratio has given us an "island reversal pattern" the past three trading days and that argues for a big down day on Friday. The NFP report on Friday should be a market mover and set the short-term trend into next week. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA shares on a retest of SPX 4103. It will take an impulsive leg down below SPX 4100 to get us  really bearish in the short term. The time spiral from 9/11/2001 pressured the SPX down into 10/27 and the timing of the next down move could be Friday/Monday. We are looking for an important SPX low next week. Gold is trading at $1994 Thursday evening as the Israeli invasion of Gaza is so far proceeding without additional geo-political damage. The last several Fridays have seen the market build in "put hedges" over the weekend in case of a flare up in the Israel-Hamas war.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should stretch the SPX and NDX decline into November/December. The SPX rallied on Fed Wednesday but a retest of the SPX 4103 low may start on Friday.  

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold closed above $2000 Friday but is trading around $1994 Thursday evening. The weekly close above the downtrend line is bullish for gold. We could see a major breakout for gold by mid-November.

Stocks –  The SPX closed much higher on Thursday, but the EW pattern still looks corrective to us. The SPX should at least retest the low at SPX 4103 on Friday/Monday and we could see a low next week. We need to see an impulsive leg below SPX 4100 to get really bearish in the short term.

Gold – Gold closed above its downtrend line on 10/27 and that is bullish. Gold is hanging around $1994 Thursday night. The Israeli-Hamas war could be the catalyst that drives gold to an ATH.   

Silver – Silver is holding above its S1-support pivot at $22.76 Thursday evening.

Bonds – Bonds are bouncing to 112'017 Thursday evening and holding above its Person's pivot.

Dollar Index – The USD declined to 105.85 on Thursday before bouncing.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week is 10/30-10/31, and 11/3.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 1, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX rallied again on Fed Wednesday as Chairman Powell hinted that we may have seen the last rate hike from the Fed. The current rally from Friday may still be a Wave 2 of 3 of C but we still need a down day Thursday to maintain a bearish view. The SPX may have just given us just a 3-wave rally so far from Friday. The market thinks that it got a  "no more rate hike" hint from Chairman Powell on Wednesday and finished higher but the 10-yr US rate may have just have finished an EW a-b-c correction. The NFP jobs report on Friday should also be a market mover. At this point a retest of the SPX 4103 low may be in order. The time spiral that caused the damage into 10/27/23 was from the 9/11/01 panic down day, but the stock market was actually shut down from 9/11-9/21 so that actually gives us some uncertainty in the crash pattern time pattern this week. The SPX was oversold by many measures,  but closing above SPX 4200 on a Fed Wednesday is bullish. We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We've added shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA on rallies for quick trades. If we get a retest of the 10/27 low at SPX 4103 after Fed Wednesday, selling these shares would be optimal. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups and accumulate SQQQ and SPXS on market rallies. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

11/01/23 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX continued its rally on Fed Wednesday but the pattern from Friday looks corrective. The SPX filled a gap Wednesday, tested its 200-dma, and tested a supply zone - we could be set for a reversal down. The SPX rallied on the QRA report Monday and on the Fed Wednesday - the NFP report on Friday should be a market mover. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA shares on a retest of SPX 4103. It will take an impulsive leg down below SPX 4100 to get us  really bearish in the short term. The time spiral from 9/11/2001 pressured the SPX down into 10/27 and the timing of the next move down could be Thursday/Friday. We are looking for an important SPX low next week. Gold is trading at $1993 Wednesday evening as the Israeli invasion of Gaza is so far proceeding without additional geo-political damage. The arrival of several US military transports last weekend in israel argued that the Israeli attack would start sometime this week.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should stretch the SPX and NDX decline into November/December. The SPX rallied on Fed Wednesday but a retest of the SPX 4103 low may start on Thursday.  

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold closed above $2000 Friday but is trading around $1993 Thursday evening. The weekly close above the downtrend line is bullish for gold. We could see a major breakout for gold by mid-November.

Stocks –  The SPX closed higher on Fed Wednesday, but the EW pattern still looks corrective to us. The SPX should at least retest the low at SPX 4103 on Thursday/Friday and we could see a low next week. We need to see an impulsive leg below SPX 4100 to get really bearish in the short term.

Gold – Gold closed above its downtrend line on Friday and that is bullish. Gold is hanging around $1993 Wednesday night. The Israeli-Hamas war could be the catalyst that drives gold to an ATH.  We have stink bids in for some of our favorite junior gold/silver miners which may make multi-year lows 

Silver – Silver is holding above its Person's pivot at $23.09 Wednesday evening.

Bonds – Bonds are bouncing to 111'07 Wednesday evening and TLT looks like a buy on dips.

Dollar Index – The USD spiked to 107.11 on Wednesday before retracing.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week is 10/30-10/31, and 11/3.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - October 31, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX rallied on Tuesday but the shape of the rally from Friday looks corrective. The length of the rally in time has gone about the maximum allowed for for in our bearish EW 1-2, i-ii count for the SPX and we need to see a big down day on Fed Wednesday to maintain this interpretation. The SPX rallied into Fed Wednesday in a corrective-looking pattern and this looks bearish to us. The bounce from Friday could be a Wave 2 of 3 of 3 of C if we are doing the bearish 1-2, i-ii count down from 9/1, but if the SPX rallies past Fed Wednesday, we need to consider a more bullish wave count. The market is hoping for the "no more rate hike" message from Chairman Powell on Wednesday, but Fed Day on Wednesday should reconfirm the "higher for longer" rate scenario and the NFP jobs report on Friday could also be a market mover. We do have mini-crash potential for sometime this week, but we need to see an impulsive leg down below SPX 4100 for confirmation. The time spiral that is causing the damage here originates from the 9/11/01 panic down day, but the stock market was actually shut down from 9/11-9/21 so that actually gives us some uncertainty in the crash pattern time pattern this week. The SPX is oversold by many measures,  but a relief rally should not last past Tuesday if the bearish wave count is in force.  We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We've added shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA on rallies for quick trades. If we get a mini-crash after Fed Wednesday, selling these shares would be optimal. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups and accumulate SQQQ and SPXS on market rallies. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

10/31/23 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX continued its rally on Tuesday but the pattern from Friday looks corrective. The QRA report Monday, the Fed speak on Wednesday, and the NFP jobs report on Friday could all be a catalyst for a strong move down in the SPX.  We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA shares on a test of SPX 4000. If we don't get an impulsive leg down below SPX 4100 this week, then our bearish short-term count is wrong. The time spiral from 9/11/2001 is currently pressuring the SPX down but the timing of the next move down could run from Wednesday-Friday. We are looking for an important SPX low around 11/17. Gold is pulling back to $1987 Tuesday evening as the Israeli invasion of Gaza is so far proceeding without additional geo-political damage. The arrival of several US military transports last weekend in israel argued that the Israeli attack would start sometime this week.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should stretch the SPX and NDX decline into November/December. The SPX should not rally past Tuesday if our bearish count is correct, but the war news from Gaza could drive the market action and extreme volatility down is a possibility after the Fed speak on Wednesday. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold closed above $2000 Friday but is declining to $1987 Tuesday evening. The weekly close above the downtrend line is bullish for gold. We could see a major breakout for gold by mid-November.

Stocks –  The SPX continued its rally from Friday, but the EW pattern looks corrective. The SPX should not rally past Tuesday if our bearish count is correct. We need to see an impulsive leg below SPX 4100 start on Fed Wednesday to confirm bearish EW count this week.

Gold – Gold closed above its downtrend line on Friday and that is bullish. Gold is declining to $1987 Tuesday evening. The Israeli-Hamas war could be the catalyst that drives gold to an ATH.  We have stink bids in for some of our favorite junior gold/silver miners which may make multi-year lows 

Silver – Silver is testing its S1-support pivot at $22.56 Tuesday evening.

Bonds – Bonds tested its S1-support pivot at 108'15 Tuesday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil may have given us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart to $80.74 Tuesday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding above its Person's Pivot at 106.72 Tuesday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week is 10/30-10/31, and 11/3.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - October 30, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX rebounded on Monday. Traders loaded up on short hedges on Friday(SPY puts, gold and VIX calls) and then unloaded those positions on Monday giving us a short-covering rally. Also, according to monthly Fed meeting seasonality, the SPX typically rallies on Monday before it declines into the Fed minutes release on Wednesday. We interpret the EW corrective price action on 10/23-10/24 as a Wave 2 of 3 of C down which has turned hard down into a Wave 3 of 3 of C which could do some damage in the coming two weeks. The bounce from Friday could be a Wave 2 of 3 of 3 of C if we are doing the bearish 1-2, i-ii count down from 9/1, but if the SPX rallies past Fed Wednesday, we need to consider a more bullish wave count. The market is hoping for the "no more rate hike" message from Chairman Powell on Wednesday, but Fed Day on Wednesday should reconfirm the "higher for longer" rate scenario and the NFP jobs report on Friday could also be a market mover.  However,  we do have a mini-crash risk for sometime this week - we need to see an impulsive leg down below SPX 4100 for confirmation. The time spiral that is causing the damage here originates from the 9/11/01 panic down day, but the stock market was actually shut down from 9/11-9/21 so that actually gives us some uncertainty in the crash pattern this week. The SPX is oversold by many measures,  but a relief rally should not last past Tuesday if the bearish wave count is in force.  We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We've added shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA on rallies for quick trades. If we get a mini-crash after Fed Wednesday, selling these shares would be optimal. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups and accumulate SQQQ and SPXS on market rallies. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

10/30/23 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX got a short-covering rally Monday after traders unloaded their put hedges on Monday. The QRA report Monday, the Fed speak on Wednesday, and the NFP jobs report on Friday could all be a catalyst for a strong move down in the SPX.  We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA shares on a test of SPX 4000. If we don't get an impulsive leg down below SPX 4100 this week, then our bearish count is wrong. The time spiral from 9/11/2001 is currently pressuring the SPX down but the timing of the next move down could run from Tuesday-Friday. We are looking for an important SPX low around 11/17. Gold is pulling back to $2002 Monday evening. The arrival of several US military transports this weekend in israel argue that the Israeli attack could start sometime this week.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should stretch the SPX and NDX decline into November/December. The SPX should not rally past Tuesday if our bearish count is correct, but the war news from Gaza could drive the market action and extreme volatility down is a possibility this week. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold closed above $2000 Friday and is holding at $2002 Monday evening. The weekly close above the downtrend line is bullish for gold. We could see a major breakout for gold by mid-November.

Stocks –  The SPX bounced today in a short-covering rally after traders sold their weekend put hedges acquired Friday. The SPX should not rally past Tuesday if our bearish count is correct. We need to see an impulsive leg below SPX 4100 for confirmation of our bearish EW count this week.

Gold – Gold closed above its downtrend line on Friday and that is bullish. Gold is holding at $2002 Monday evening. The Israeli-Hamas war could be the catalyst that drives gold to an ATH.  We have stink bids in for some of our favorite junior gold/silver miners which may make multi-year lows into November/December.

Silver – Silver is holding at $23.24 Monday evening.

Bonds – Bonds are down to 109'07 Monday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is pulling back to $82.92 Monday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding above its Person's Pivot at 106.32 Monday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week is 10/30-10/31, and 11/3.