All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 6, 2015

Market Observations for the Coming Week:  Like it always does, the US bond market is rising rates ahead of the Fed. Because of historic bond market overvaluation and the global illiquidity in sovereign debt markets because of the manic use of QE, we feel that that US bonds are vulnerable to a rapid decline that could turn chaotic in the near term.

 

05/06/15 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX sold off on the open and may have finished a EW 5-wave decline pattern before a late reversal up. Rising interest rates, weak economic numbers, and "overvaluation comments" from Janet Yellen are plaguing the market here. Rising global bond interest rates, bond illiquidity and a broken parabolic run in the USD is a "ringing bell" that a historic top has been made in sovereign bonds. Bonds must be shorted on bounces since the chance of a rapid and disorderly decline into June is high. The Fed is reticent to raise rates anytime soon, especially after the almost zero GDP growth in Q1, but the market is doing it anyway. We saw 5th wave blow offs on the hourly charts for the NDX and SPX into 4/27 and we pulled back into the Full Moon Timing Window before bouncing on Monday. Today's selloff took out last week's low and opens the door for an eventual test of the SPX 200-day MA, but we're looking for a rally into Thursday first. The decline in the USD is giving life to the downtrodden commodity sector with oil and copper. We saw 5th wave blow offs on the hourly charts for the NDX and SPX into 4/27 and we pulled back into the Full Moon Timing Window before bouncing on Monday. The bonds made an important secondary peak on 4/3 and are sub-dividing down aggressively - we would like to add to shorts on a bounce. Gold and silver bounced into the Full Moon but have only declined correctively into today - however, weakness in the gold stocks are holding gold and silver back here. We expect that intense volatility in stocks, bonds and gold is right around the corner. Crude oil spiked to $62 making highs for the year again, but we reversed down after the NYSE open. The market is reacting to a number of economic indicators that are portraying a big slowdown in global trade and a slowing US economy - of course a bad winter accounts for some of the weakness but bigger factors may be at work which the market may try to discount in the May/June time window. US shale oil production appears to be leveling off which may give fundamental support as we enter spring but the Saudis have ramped their production to all-time highs and the market does not seem to be paying attention to this. The USD appears to be declining impulsively which is sparking a rally in commodities.

 

 

 

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) -  The NDX and SPX made marginal new highs last week but the decline in the bonds threaten to kick off a 10% decline in the SPX and NDX.

 

   

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold bounced into the Full Moon but has just pulled back correctively - gold may be starting a rally into June.

    

• Stocks – The NDX and SPX took out last week's low and that could usher in a retest of the 200-day MA for the SPX but first we should rally tomorrow as we go into the NFP jobs report on Friday morning.
• Gold - Gold pulled back on Wednesday after the gold stocks reversed down near the open.
• Silver – Silver is looking stronger than gold and SLW reversed up late - looking for a bounce on Thursday.
• Bonds - Bonds are declining impulsively in a seasonally negative period - sell bounces.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil spiked to $62 before a big reversal late in the day.
• Dollar Index – The USD is sub-dividing down impulsively on the hourly chart - looking for more rally in commodities.

TURNING POINT DAY:

Our turn window for this week is 5/3, the Full Moon - looking for a trading low in stocks and a high in oil.

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

WEEKLY COMMENTS: Update for 2/14/14: On the CDNX, the 50-day MA has crossed up through the 200-day MA giving us a buy signal on the junior resource sector. At this stage we would only focus on those stocks that were washed out in 2013 and have adequate financing to carry them through 2014 drilling activity.

• Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.040 -0.010) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit. Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVGD.TO, C$0.024 +.001) - UPDATE: This stock has two world-class finds in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV. The problem is that the company needs a financing and could be forced to sell a world-class asset for pennies on the dollar.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.35 -.14) - UPDATE: Uranium prices are recovering and the fundamentals are getting a perfect storm. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer.
• Energy Fuels (EFR.TO, C$5.75 -.21) – Finished acquisition of STM.TO in early September - building up a position as a strong US producer of uranium in a tight market.
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.0350 -.0000) – UPDATE: This stock needs to get its Mongolian coal mine into a positive cash-flow situation to support its power plant project and other endeavors without diluting the common shareholder to zero.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPHQ, $.029 -.000) - UPDATE: De-listed stock. Good asset but needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 30% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 5, 2015

Market Observations for the Coming Week:  Like it always does, the US bond market is rising rates ahead of the Fed. Because of historic bond market overvaluation and the global illiquidity in sovereign debt markets because of the manic use of QE, we feel that that US bonds are vulnerable to a rapid decline that could turn chaotic in the near term.

 

05/05/15 (Commentary for Tuesday) Interest rates were pushed up today as crude oil made highs for the year and the SPX sold off. Negative global bond interest rates, bond illiquidity and a broken parabolic run in the USD is a "ringing bell" that a historic top has been made in sovereign bonds. Bonds must be shorted on bounces since the chance of a rapid and disorderly decline into June is high. Stocks bottomed late Friday and bounced Monday but the rally was low volume and did not look convincing - a Large Divergent Decline in the Option Premium Ratio argues for early weakness tomorrow in the SPX. The Fed is reticent to raise rates anytime soon, especially after the almost zero GDP growth in Q1, but the market is doing it anyway. Stocks bottomed late Friday and bounced Monday but the rally was low volume and did not look convincing. Today's selloff generated a high put/call ratio and may be corrective - we will need to see the SPX rally impulsively on Wednesday to confirm a low. The decline in the USD is giving life to downtrodden commodity sector stocks. We saw 5th wave blow offs on the hourly charts for the NDX and SPX into 4/27 and we pulled back into the Full Moon Timing Window before bouncing on Monday. It's important for the bullish case for the SPX to hold Friday's low. The bonds made an important secondary peak on 4/3 and are sub-dividing down aggressively - we would like to add to shorts on a bounce. Gold and silver bounced into the Full Moon but have only declined correctively into today - they appear bullish. We expect that intense volatility in stocks, bonds and gold is right around the corner. Crude oil broke $60 making highs for the year - we expect a pullback on Wednesday's inventory report. The market is reacting to a number of economic indicators that are portraying a big slowdown in global trade and a slowing US economy - of course a bad winter accounts for some of the weakness but bigger factors may be at work which the market may try to discount in the May/June time window. US shale oil production appears to be leveling off which may give fundamental support as we enter spring but the Saudis have ramped their production to all-time highs and the market does not seem to be paying attention to this. The USD appears to be declining impulsively which is sparking a rally in commodities.

 

 

 

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) -  The NDX and SPX made marginal new highs last week but the decline in the bonds threaten to kick off a 10% decline in the SPX and NDX.

 

   

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold bounced into the Full Moon but has just pulled back correctively - gold may be starting a rally into June.

    

• Stocks – The NDX and SPX pulled back today - we must hold Friday's low to keep the short-term bullish case alive.
• Gold - Gold took out Monday's high and looks short-term bullish.
• Silver – Silver appears to be making a high-range correction after the Full Moon - this is bullish.
• Bonds - Bonds are declining impulsively in a seasonally negative period - sell bounces.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil took out $60 to make highs for the year - looking for a pullback on Wednesday.
• Dollar Index – The USD is sub-dividing down impulsively on the hourly chart - looking for more rally in commodities.

TURNING POINT DAY:

Our turn window for this week is 5/3, the Full Moon - looking for a trading low in stocks and a high in oil.

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

WEEKLY COMMENTS: Update for 2/14/14: On the CDNX, the 50-day MA has crossed up through the 200-day MA giving us a buy signal on the junior resource sector. At this stage we would only focus on those stocks that were washed out in 2013 and have adequate financing to carry them through 2014 drilling activity.

• Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.045 +0.000) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit. Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVGD.TO, C$0.0291 -.0009) - UPDATE: This stock has two world-class finds in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV. The problem is that the company needs a financing and could be forced to sell a world-class asset for pennies on the dollar.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.49 +.00) - UPDATE: Uranium prices are recovering and the fundamentals are getting a perfect storm. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer.
• Energy Fuels (EFR.TO, C$5.96 -.03) – Finished acquisition of STM.TO in early September - building up a position as a strong US producer of uranium in a tight market.
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.0350 -.0000) – UPDATE: This stock needs to get its Mongolian coal mine into a positive cash-flow situation to support its power plant project and other endeavors without diluting the common shareholder to zero.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPHQ, $.021 -.009) - UPDATE: De-listed stock. Good asset but needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 30% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The JDV Market Timer - May 4, 2015

Market Observations for the Coming Week:  Like it always does, the US bond market is rising rates ahead of the Fed. Because of historic bond market overvaluation and the global illiquidity in sovereign debt markets because of the manic use of QE, we feel that that US bonds are vulnerable to a rapid decline that could turn chaotic in the near term.

 

05/04/15 (Commentary for Monday)  The US government bond market blew off into March and April and set generational lows in interest rates. We now have the "short sale of the century" on our hands and the US bond market is raising the rates before the Fed even moves. Negative global bond interest rates, bond illiquidity and a broken parabolic run in the USD is a "ringing bell" that a historic top has been made. Bonds must be shorted on bounces since the chance of a rapid and disorderly decline into June is high.  Stocks bottomed late Friday and bounce today but the rally was low volume and did not look convincing - a Large Divergent Decline in the Option Premium Ratio argues for early weakness tomorrow in the SPX. The Fed is reticent to raise rates anytime soon, especially after the almost zero GDP growth in Q1, but the market is doing it anyway.  The decline in the USD is giving life to downtrodden commodity sector stocks.  We saw 5th wave blow offs on the hourly charts for the NDX and SPX into 4/27 and we pulled back into the Full Moon Timing Window before bouncing today. It wouldn`t surprise us if the SPX takes out Friday`s low on Tuesday. The bonds made an important secondary peak on 4/3 and are sub-dividing down aggressively - we would like to add to shorts on a bounce. Gold and silver rallied into the Full Moon but the move looked corrective and we expect the PMs to roll over. We expect that intense volatility in stocks, bonds and gold is right around the corner. Crude oil reversed down early today after oil made a high near the open.  The market is reacting to a number of economic indicators that are portraying a big slowdown in global trade and a slowing US economy - of course a bad winter accounts for some of the weakness but bigger factors may be at work which the market may try to discount in the May/June time window. US shale oil production appears to be leveling off which may give fundamental support as we enter spring but the Saudis have ramped their production to all-time highs and the market does not seem to be paying attention to this.  The USD appears to be declining impulsively which is sparking a rally in commodities.

 

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) -  The NDX and SPX made marginal new highs last week but the decline in the bonds threaten to kick off a 10% decline in the SPX and NDX.

 

   

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold was raided on Thursday morning and the bounce into the Full Moon looks corrective - we're looking for a pullback on Monday.

    

• Stocks – The NDX and SPX bounced today but the volume was low - a Large Divergent Decline in the Option Premium Ratio argues for early weakness on Tuesday.
• Gold – Gold peaked Wednesday before the FOMC minutes and pulled back into Friday to test the $1174 lows from last week - we're getting a reversal up Sunday night but the bounce looks corrective.
• Silver – Silver spiked higher into the Full Moon - looking for a pullback on Tuesday.
• Bonds - Bonds are declining impulsively in a seasonally negative period - sell bounces.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is breaking out of a bullish flag pattern- looking for a 5th wave higher on Tuesday.
• Dollar Index – The USD is sub-dividing down impulsively on the hourly chart - looking for more rally in commodities.

TURNING POINT DAY:

Our turn window for this week is 5/3, the Full Moon - looking for a trading low in stocks and a high in oil.

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

WEEKLY COMMENTS: Update for 2/14/14: On the CDNX, the 50-day MA has crossed up through the 200-day MA giving us a buy signal on the junior resource sector. At this stage we would only focus on those stocks that were washed out in 2013 and have adequate financing to carry them through 2014 drilling activity.

• Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.045 +0.000) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit. Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVGD.TO, C$0.0230 +.0000) - UPDATE: This stock has two world-class finds in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV. The problem is that the company needs a financing and could be forced to sell a world-class asset for pennies on the dollar.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.49 +.01) - UPDATE: Uranium prices are recovering and the fundamentals are getting a perfect storm. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer.
• Energy Fuels (EFR.TO, C$5.99 +.01) – Finished acquisition of STM.TO in early September - building up a position as a strong US producer of uranium in a tight market.
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.0350 -.0000) – UPDATE: This stock needs to get its Mongolian coal mine into a positive cash-flow situation to support its power plant project and other endeavors without diluting the common shareholder to zero.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPHQ, $.0315 +.000) - UPDATE: De-listed stock. Good asset but needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 30% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 12, 2013

Market Observations for the Coming Week: The reversals up in crude oil, PMs, and natural gas this week argue that a new commodity rally may be gaining momentum in the face of massive money printing by world central banks. The great 60 year cycle does forecast an inflationary cycle that is due in late 2013- early 2014.

8/12/13 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX looks tired and is showing technical divergences in many charts but this is a dull market and we are following the old market saying - "Never short a dull market". The market negated a potentially bearish EW pattern on the 5-min chart late in the day - we still are looking for one more rally to new highs in the SPX by 8/21. We got stopped out of our OEX call position as the ES fell below 1684 but we held on to our IBM Aug 190 call position and avoided initiating any short positions. Our bias is that the ES could reach a target of 1721+ by 8/21 or so and then set us up for a substantial correction into Sept-Oct. Gold and silver gave us a 5th wave rally on the hourly chart into Monday - looks like we may make a short-term peak in the 8/12-8/13 time window. Still, a short squeeze in the PMs is underway and we are looking to buy dips into mid-September. Crude oil completed a large "flat correction" on the hourly chart and reversed up - we need to see a take out of $110 to get a commodity rally going - natural gas gave us a buy signal on Wednesday and we may be at seasonal lows. However, the "bearish swing in the crude oil COTs" may be suggesting that we are getting close to a top - perhaps by 8/21. Bonds gave us a sharp impulse leg down on the hourly perhaps ending the large corrective bounce - just a 3-wave corrective rally chart will have us shorting. The rally in the USD hourly looks corrective on the hourly - looking for a test of 81.39.

              

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX corrected into the 8/6-8/7 turn window and reversed up - we need to take out 1700 early Monday to get a run into through August expiration.

     

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold and silver reversed up impulsively in the 8/6-8/7 turn window - looking for gold to test $1500 by mid-September. Should get a pullback into the 8/12-8/13 turn window before a reversal up.

     

  • Stocks – The ES took out 1684 and stopped us out of our OEX call position. However, this is a dull market and we are not inclined to short here. We are still holding some Aug 190 IBM calls and looking for a rally into 8/21.
  • Gold – Gold is giving us a 5th wave higher on the hourly chart - looking for a run to $1500 by mid-September. Gold may try to test $1350 in the 8/12-8/13 time window. The COTs indicate a MAJOR SHORT SQUEEZE has started.
  • Silver – Silver is giving us 5-waves up on the hourly chart into the 8/12-8/13 turn window - we are looking to buy dips into mid-September. The COTs indicate a MAJOR SHORT SQUEEZE has started.
  • Bonds - Bonds gave us a sharp impulse leg down - looking for a 3-wave bounce to get us short.
  • Crude Oil – Crude oil finished an "EW flat correction" on the hourly chart and started to reverse up - a run into 8/21 is underway. Natural gas gave us a BUY signal on Wednesday - maybe at seasonal lows - looking to add BOIL or UNG.
  • Dollar Index – The USD is giving us a corrective bounce on the hourly chart - looking for a test of 81.39.

TURNING POINT DAY:

August 12-13 is a turn window for gold and silver.

Depression Beater Portfolio: (This portfolio this week is just a sample of my own portfolio - no recommendation to others is implied or intended)

WEEKLY COMMENTS: The junior PM sector is a WASTELAND in 2013 and the metal of PM junior investors has been sorely tested in the past year ….. BUT …. as Deep Contrarian Investors we will continue to hold our PM juniors (the Hulbert sentiment readings from PM newsletter writers are giving a Major Contrarian Buy Signal in June 2013) but we will not add anymore until the 50 day MA crosses decisively up through the 200 day MA on the CDNX chart. TAKE HEART - the CDNX bottomed on 6/28 and is giving us an EW 5-wave advance on the daily chart.

• NEW PICK – Aroway Energy (ARW.V, C$0.305 -.00) – This western Canadian junior is part of a very sweet JV deal with a private partner in the Peace River basin – it's production share should climb from 669 BOE/day (75% black oil) to over 1200 BOE/day later in 2012 – management has selected a good slate of properties for drilling and it is bearing fruit. Buy on dips. Use a 20% stop from purchase price.
• Evolving Gold (EVG.TO, C$0.060 +.005) A world-class deposit in Wyoming (Rattlesnake) and a potentially huge find on the Carlin Trend in NV argue that this stock will be a big winner. Goldcorp took a 15% interest and that says it all.
• Uranium Energy (UEC, $2.31 +.01) - The uranium supply/demand story still has legs despite the Japanese disaster. Favoring the near-term producers here like UEC - the fundamentals are much more dramatic that the typical emerging gold producer. Adding on weakness.
• Strathmore Mining (STM.TO, C$.290 +.01) – Very undervalued uranium stock with huge reserves (+100 M lbs of relatively high grade), lots of cash and production prospects by 2013.
• Prophecy Coal (PRPCF, $0.1239 -.0001) – John Lee is determined to drive this emerging coal producer in Mongolia into an international mining powerhouse. Started production last fall with a favorable off-take agreement. Very aggressive business plan in place to make it a billion dollar company. Following the path that Robert Friedland took with South Gobi. This stock has obvious 10-20 bagger potential.
• Gryphon Gold (GYPH, $.0085 -.0000) - Got plan from management to begin phased production by early 2011 - financing details have yet to be announced. Has >1M oz AU proven, mining permits and a highly prospective land package. Needs a cash infusion and maybe a partner. Good leverage to gold.

JUNIOR MINING FAVORITES:

(These companies are speculative - best to keep them to 10% of a portfolio with 50% stops based on purchase price. Buy a basket to diversify risk)

RULES FOR JUNIOR MINING INVESTING:



1) Keep to 10% of a portfolio.



2) Due your own Due Diligence.



3) Maintain a price stop of 30% of purchase price or whatever your Technical Analysis suggests is prudent.