All Star Market Timing

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - April 20, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX sold off hard Wednesday after the SPX gave us an inside-day Doji candle and our TRIN-5 indicator gave us its first "overbought" SELL SIGNAL (< 4.0) since mid-March. The market seemed to sell off harder after Chairman Powell's comments which remained resolute in fighting inflation. The Fibonacci 55-day step out from the SPX ATH on 2/19 appears to have inverted and landed on 4/15 as a high. Our short-term bias is now for a SPX low in the 4/17-4/21 turn window around 5200.  Gold is surging higher overnight Wednesday making a new ATH at $3377.2 and the GDX is also spiking to 53.06 in overnight trading. We will be watching the SPX, TLT, or GDX for possible trade setups this week but will be patient. Our current investment positions positions remain 30% cash, 25% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated Friday to 75% cash, 25% SLV, 0% GLD, and 0% GDX.

TURNING POINT DAY

We have a turn window for this week from 4/14-4/17.

 

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us an inside-day Doji candle and our TRIN-5 indicator gave us its first "overbought" SELL SIGNAL (< 4.0) since mid-March. The Fibonacci 55-day step out from the SPX ATH on 2/19 lands on 4/16 and this could could be an important high instead of a low. Our short-term bias is now for a SPX high near 4/16 (maybe today) followed by pullback into the 4/17-4/21 turn window. Gold is surging higher overnight Tuesday making a new ATH at $3311.7 and the GDX is also spiking to 53.06 in overnight trading. We will be watching the SPX, TLT, or GDX for possible trade setups this week but will be patient. Our current investment positions positions remain 30% cash, 25% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated Friday to 75% cash, 25% SLV, 0% GLD, and 0% GDX.

4/15/25 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX gave us an inside-day Doji and could be close to a turn down. Our TRIN-5 indicator gave us its first "overbought" SELL SIGNAL (< 4.0) since mid-March. The Fibonacci 55-day step out from the 2/19 high lands tomorrow and looks to come in as a high - we also have a 3-star critical reversal day for the SPX on 4/14-4/15. Bonds are still not trading that well and could see more volatility to trip up stocks this week. Gold is making a new ATH at $3311.7 overnight Tuesday and is also peaking into a 3-star critical reversal turn window on 4/14-4/15. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  Will the Fibonacci 55-day step out into 4/16 peak the SPX rally?  A 3-star critical reversal turn window is coming in on 4/14-4/15.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold is making a new ATH at $3311.7 into the 4/14-4/15 3-star critical reversal day.

Stocks – Our TRIN-5 SELL SIGNAL from Tuesday's close has us looking for a short-term high by early Wednesday.

Gold - Gold is making a new ATH at $3311.7 going into its 4/14-4/15 3-star critical reversal day.

Silver – Silver is testing $32.71 overnight Tuesday.

Bonds – Bonds continue looking technically weak and could push lower soon which would raise rates..

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $60.86 overnight Tuesday.

Dollar Index – The USD is falling to 99.43 overnight Tuesday and is boosting gold.

TURNING POINT DAY

We have a turn window for this week from 4/14-4/17.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 16, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX sold off hard Wednesday after the SPX gave us an inside-day Doji candle and our TRIN-5 indicator gave us its first "overbought" SELL SIGNAL (< 4.0) since mid-March. The market seemed to sell off harder after Chairman Powell's comments which remained resolute in fighting inflation. The Fibonacci 55-day step out from the SPX ATH on 2/19 appears to have inverted and landed on 4/15 as a high. Our short-term bias is now for a SPX low in the 4/17-4/21 turn window around 5200.  Gold is surging higher overnight Wednesday making a new ATH at $3377.2 and the GDX is also spiking to 53.06 in overnight trading. We will be watching the SPX, TLT, or GDX for possible trade setups this week but will be patient. Our current investment positions positions remain 30% cash, 25% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated Friday to 75% cash, 25% SLV, 0% GLD, and 0% GDX.

TURNING POINT DAY

We have a turn window for this week from 4/14-4/17.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 15, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us an inside-day Doji candle and our TRIN-5 indicator gave us its first "overbought" SELL SIGNAL (< 4.0) since mid-March. The Fibonacci 55-day step out from the SPX ATH on 2/19 lands on 4/16 and this could could be an important high instead of a low. Our short-term bias is now for a SPX high near 4/16 (maybe today) followed by pullback into the 4/17-4/21 turn window. Gold is surging higher overnight Tuesday making a new ATH at $3311.7 and the GDX is also spiking to 53.06 in overnight trading. We will be watching the SPX, TLT, or GDX for possible trade setups this week but will be patient. Our current investment positions positions remain 30% cash, 25% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated Friday to 75% cash, 25% SLV, 0% GLD, and 0% GDX.

4/15/25 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX gave us an inside-day Doji and could be close to a turn down. Our TRIN-5 indicator gave us its first "overbought" SELL SIGNAL (< 4.0) since mid-March. The Fibonacci 55-day step out from the 2/19 high lands tomorrow and looks to come in as a high - we also have a 3-star critical reversal day for the SPX on 4/14-4/15. Bonds are still not trading that well and could see more volatility to trip up stocks this week. Gold is making a new ATH at $3311.7 overnight Tuesday and is also peaking into a 3-star critical reversal turn window on 4/14-4/15. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  Will the Fibonacci 55-day step out into 4/16 peak the SPX rally?  A 3-star critical reversal turn window is coming in on 4/14-4/15.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold is making a new ATH at $3311.7 into the 4/14-4/15 3-star critical reversal day.

Stocks – Our TRIN-5 SELL SIGNAL from Tuesday's close has us looking for a short-term high by early Wednesday.

Gold - Gold is making a new ATH at $3311.7 going into its 4/14-4/15 3-star critical reversal day.

Silver – Silver is testing $32.71 overnight Tuesday.

Bonds – Bonds continue looking technically weak and could push lower soon which would raise rates..

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $60.86 overnight Tuesday.

Dollar Index – The USD is falling to 99.43 overnight Tuesday and is boosting gold.

TURNING POINT DAY

We have a turn window for this week from 4/14-4/17.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 14, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: From Wednesday, the SPX appears to be doing an EW  flat correction and today's rally looks like a B-wave test of the 4/9 high at 5481. The B-wave rally could continue into Tuesday. This week has a weekly turning point window and it appears to be a high. The Fibonacci 55-day step out from the SPX ATH on 2/19 lands on 4/16 and this could could be an important high instead of a low. Our short-term bias is now for a SPX high near 4/16 followed by pullback into the 4/17-4/21 turn window. From the latest ATH for gold at $3263 on Friday - we have only seen a sideways 3-wave correction which argues for a higher high. We will be watching the SPX, TLT, or SLV for possible trade setups this week but will be patient. Our current investment positions positions remain 30% cash, 25% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated Friday to 75% cash, 25% SLV, 0% GLD, and 0% GDX.

TURNING POINT DAY

The next turn window is 4/13-4/16 which includes the Full Moon Timing Window + Venus Direct Station.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - April 13, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: We could see another week of volatility in the financial markets. The US bond market is trading bearishly and bond market volatility could drive more stock volatility. Last week the SPX found support at 4835 which is the confluence of a horizontal line going through the 1/4/22 SPX high and a diagonal trend line connecting the 3/23/20 Covid low and the 9/22 low. The SPX found support and bounced up to 5481 on Wednesday before correcting. The SPX rally on Friday looks corrective, however, and we could see another retest of the lows from last week at 5119 or so. The Fibonacci 55-day step out from the SPX ATH on 2/19 lands on 4/16 and this could see an important low. Gold made a new ATH at $3263 into the 4/11-4/13 Full Moon Timing Window and is just correcting sideways overnight Sunday which is bullish. We will be watching the SPX, TLT, or SLV for possible trade setups this week but will be patient. Our current investment positions positions remain 30% cash, 25% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated Friday to 75% cash, 25% SLV, 0% GLD, and 0% GDX.

TURNING POINT DAY

The next turn window is 4/13-4/16 which includes the Full Moon Timing Window + Venus Direct Station.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 10, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Wednesday gave us a 10% gain in the SPX after Trump postponed his tariff rollout for 90-days. On Thursday, the SPX and NDX corrected their large gain and traced out "inside days" after a much cooler-than-expected CPI inflation report. However, the key market that the Trump administration is focused on is the US bond market which has only managed to retrace a small 0.382 of the move down from 122'05 to 111'17 and a subsequent rise in interest rates over the last week - there is more bond volatility to come. Friday will bring us the early PPI inflation report and the latest consumer sentiment survey which could be a volatility trigger. In the bear market of 2008, the SPX gained 10% on 10/8/2008 but then proceeded to give it all back in the next two trading days - can this happen again by Friday/Monday which will form a powerful turn window from 4/11-4/16 that includes the Full Moon Timing Window + Venus Direct Station? Our short-term view is that the SPX may need to make a "low volume" retest of the lows this week. Gold and the GDX are rallying into the 4/12 Full Moon and gold is making a new ATH at $3241 overnight Thursday. We will be watching the SPX, TLT, or GLD for possible trade setups on 4/11-4/15. Our current investment positions positions remain 30% cash, 25% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated Tuesday to 100% cash, 0% SLV, 0% GLD, and 0% GDX.

TURNING POINT DAY

The next turn window is 4/11-4/15 which includes the Full Moon + VENUS Direct Station.

The Daily JDV Market TImer - April 9, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Wednesday gave us a "rip your face off rally" around 12:30 EDT as Trump postponed his tariff implementation plan by 90 days and set all tariff level outside of China to 10%. The clarity on tariffs outside of China brought a needed relief to the business community. On Tuesday's close, the combination of a closing $TRIN of 2.42 and a closing $TICK of -609 showed PANIC and argued for a strong rally on Wednesday - normally, we would have added a long TQQQ position but we were sticking to our post of "avoiding long positions until we got past the 4/15 turn window". Also, our TRIN-5 indicator finally hit the oversold level (> 6.0) on Tuesday's close for the first time since the 2/19 SPX ATH at 6149 - this was a BUY SIGNAL. Was today's rally the start of a rally back to test the highs or just a "bear market rally"? - how we trade on Thursday/Friday will enlighten us. Our current investment positions positions remain 30% cash, 25% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was updated Tuesday to 100% cash, 0% SLV, 0% GLD, and 0% GDX.

4/9/25 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX delivered on the expected "rip your face off rally" after Trump postponed the his tariff plan by 90 days. Our TRIN-5 indicator The Trump announcement dominated the stock market volatility for the day and the Fed minutes passed without much much comment or market reaction. Did today's 10% SPX rally negate the "possible SPX mini-crash pattern into 4/15"? - maybe, how we trade on Thursday/Friday will enlighten us. The stock market gained some clarity on the on the Trump trade war - a 90 day pause and just a 10% reciprocal tariff on all non-Chinese countries during the pause. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) Was the "potential Fibonacci 55-day crash pattern into 4/15 negated after Wednesday's 10% SPX rally?  We're looking for the trade on Thursday/Friday for enlightenment.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold tested its 0.782 retrace overnight Wednesday and could retest $3200.

Stocks – The CPI inflation report should be a catalyst early Thursday. 

Gold - Gold tested the 0.782 retrace overnight Wednesday - the decline into Monday may have been just a 3-wave corrective pullback.

Silver – Silver bounced to $31.25 overnight Wednesday.

Bonds – Bonds declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart and tagged 111'17 overnight Tuesday before bouncing correctively on Wednesday - still looks bearish.

Crude Oil – Crude oil bounced to test $63 after Trump's 90-day tariff postponement.

Dollar Index – The USD bounced to 103.37 Wednesday before correcting overnight.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window  for this week is 4/7-4/8.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 8, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us a gap-up open early Tuesday but peaked out in the morning and revered down in 5-waves by the close. We may have finished a 4th wave bounce or a Wave A of 4 bounce that retraced 50% of the decline from Wednesday's close at 5671. Trump plans to further increase tariffs on Chinese goods at midnight EDT on Wednesday. The US trade war is getting out of hand and there is no clarity when it will end. IMPORTANT - from the 2/19 ATH in the SPX, we may be tracing out a Fibonacci 55-day crash pattern with an end date on 4/15 - this is something to watch closely. We DO NOT PLAN TO ADD TO ANY LONG POSITIONS UNTIL WE GET PAST 4/15. We are CAUTIOUS here and raising cash when we have short-term trading profits and maintaining a good level of buying power in our trading accounts for after 4/15. Gold is testing $3048 overnight Tuesday though we view the technical pattern from the $3200 ATH last week as short-term bearish. Our current investment positions positions remain 30% cash, 25% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was updated Tuesday to 100% cash, 0% SLV, 0% GLD, and 0% GDX.

4/8/25 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX may have topped out a two-day 4th wave corrective bounce on Tuesday and turned down. We have Fed minutes tomorrow which should echo Chairman Powell's remarks from noon last Friday - "staying the course on rates". The Trump tariff announcement has added downside fuel to a stock market already in correction mode and the results could get EXTREME by 4/15. The stock market lacks clarity on the outcome of the Trump trade war and this will create even more volatility into next week. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) A potential Fibonacci 55-day crash pattern has an end date on 4/15 - WE DO NOT PLAN TO GET LONG ANYTHING BEFORE 4/15.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold looks short-term bearish to us and could test $2800-$2835 by 4/15.

Stocks – After a gap-up open, the SPX reversed down before noon and closed hard. We could make undercut lows below SPX 4835 by Thursday/Friday as the market discounts a Q2 recession.

Gold - Gold looks short-term bearish to us and could undercut $2900 by Thursday/Friday. 

Silver – Silver looks short-term bearish and could undercut $27.50 by Thursday/Friday.

Bonds – Bonds declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart and tagged 111'17 overnight Tuesday before bouncing.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $56.7 overnight Tuesday and is weakly bouncing.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 102 overnight Tuesday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window  for this week is 4/7-4/8.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 7, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: We were looking for a reversal day by early Monday and we got it overnight Sunday on the E-mini which tagged 4832 before rallying. Early Monday, the SPX gave us a gap-down open but reversed higher when an unconfirmed rumor sent the SPX briefly soaring to positive territory before reversing down sharply to create a 415 point range for the day. Our bias is that the SPX is working on a 4th wave correction that could last for a few days but a divergent lower low is still possible into next week.  From the 2/19 ATH in the SPX, we may be tracing out a Fibonacci 55-day crash pattern with an end date on 4/15 - this is something to watch.  We are  CAUTIOUS here and maintaining a good level of cash in our trading accounts. Gold declined to $2970 in Monday's afternoon session and started to rally overnight Monday and is testing $3029 - we continue to hold some Barrick Gold stock for a trade. If we get a strong Wave 4 reversal up in the SPX early Tuesday, we may use that bounce to raise our cash position. Our current investment positions positions remain 30% cash, 25% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was updated Friday to 75% cash, 0% SLV, 0% GLD, and 25% GOLD (Barrick Gold).

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window  for this week is 4/7-4/8.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - April 6, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The stock market completed a massive rolling top from mid-2024 until the SPX made it's last ATH on 2/19 at 6147.43. The SPX made a B-Wave high at 5786.95 on 3/27 - the midpoint of the current Mercury retrograde cycle and started a Wave C down. The SPX entered a Wave 3 of C down on 4/2 and we may be close to the start of a Wave 4 correction on Monday or Tuesday.  From the 2/19 ATH in the SPX, we may be tracing out a Fibonacci 55-day crash pattern with a due date on 4/15. The severity of the Trump Tariff rollout at 4:00 PM EDT on 4/2 surprised many traders (including ourselves) and brought about a global stock selloff. Until recently, we have strived to hold 50% cash in our stock account because of the imminent end of a 16-yr secular bull market from March 2009. Chairman Powell failed to reassure the stock market on Friday in his mid-day address, however, with global markets in crash mode overnight Sunday and pressure coming from Trump, Fed officials may be huddling overnight Sunday to try to address the potential liquidity concerns coming from the big hedge funds on Wall Street. We are  CAUTIOUS here and maintaining a good level of cash in our trading accounts. Gold touched $2985 early Sunday evening and has a potential target (Wave C=1.618 x Wave A) at $2967, however, hedge funds may use gold to meet their margin calls as Monday wears on. Crude oil tagged $59.38 overnight Sunday and is giving a strong deflationary signal to the global economy. If we get a strong Wave 4 reversal up in the SPX, we may use that bounce to raise our cash position as we did early Friday. Our current investment positions positions remain 30% cash, 25% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was updated Friday to 75% cash, 0% SLV, 0% GLD, and 25% NEM.

The turn window  for this week is 4/7-4/8.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 4, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  A global stock market mini-crash started after the Trump tariff rollout on Thursday after 4:00 PM EDT - after an overnight decline in global markets, the SPX gave us a "gap and go" day down on Thursday. Our bias is for an important "trading low" by Monday and we could see it after the NFP jobs report early Friday. A weak NFP jobs report could further spook the market early Friday until Chairman Powell speaks at 11:25 AM EDT. In case this scenario plays out, it may be possible to catch a violent "dead cat bounce" into next week and possibly into mid-April. We are trading cautiously here, however, and maintaining a good level of cash in our trading accounts. We did add Barrick Gold (GOLD) early Thursday as the senior gold stocks opened lower but caught a bid. Gold made another ATH afterhours on Wednesday at $3201.6 but only gave us a 3-wave correction to $3072 early Thursday before rebounding. Silver is declining in a fierce 5-waves down from $35.17 that could target $31 early Friday. Crude oil made a higher high at $72.28 afterhours Wednesday before declining to test $66 overnight Thursday. Our current investment positions positions remain 25% cash, 30% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation in our short-term trading account which was updated Thursday day to 50% cash, 0% SLV, 0% GLD, 25% XOM, and 25% GOLD.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 4/1 and 4/4, the NFP jobs report.