All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 9, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX made a first hour high today and sold off into the close. More important, the AAII Sentiment Survey showed a huge shift in bull/bear sentiment. The AAII bullish sentiment came out the highest since December 2021 at 37.5% and the bearish sentiment came in the lowest in many weeks at 25.0%.Courtesy of the recent AI bubble, the excess bearish sentiment in early January has been reversed to the bullish side. Since 2/2, the US 10-yr govt rate has risen from 3.34% to 3.85% and today a bad 30-yr Treasury auction sent the 10-yr US rate back up to test the highs. The tech stocks have barely noticed so far. Our short-term bias is that the SPX can hold up into the CPI report on 2/14 but will get a negative surprise which will knock both the SPX and gold down hard. In our view the SPX has already priced in a "soft economic landing" and we continue to remain cautious and continue to raise our cash levels - there will be a much better opportunity to buy the SPX in May/June based on our cycle count.  Monthly and weekly Fibonacci step outs from the 1/4/22 SPX high point to the first half of February as a reversal time window and WE ARE THERE. However, the chart of the SPX still has the possibility of making a higher high into next week. Our intermediate-term bias is that the SPX rally from 10/13 is a Bear Market Rally and our Time Window target is now into the first half of February. One price target for this Bear Market rally was the 50% retracement area around 4150 (achieved 2/2) or the 61.8% retracement around 4300. The NDX has been leading the market higher and has outperformed both the SPX and DJIA - investors have moved from the industrial stocks back to chasing technology stocks again like the AI stocks.  Crude oil pulled back to its S1-pivot support at $76.51 before bouncing back to its Person's pivot at $77.72. The USD finished its EW a-b-c correction and spiked higher knocking gold down to $1865. 

2/09/23 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX is in the Time Window - the first half of February - for a major turn and we have a SELL SIGNAL in our Option Premium Ratio and now after today, we have an important bull/bear sentiment inversion from the AAII sentiment survey. We have turned cautious and started raising more cash - our cycle work is calling the SPX much lower by May/June and we plan to take advantage then. The bearish market sentiment seen in early January has been converted to the bullish side and the AI-technology bubble has traders chasing tech stocks again despite their near-term challenges. The tech stocks have ignored the move up in the 10-yr US rate the past five trading days and is vulnerable to a hotter than expected CPI report next Tuesday that could slam down the SPX and gold.  We still contend that the market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that will make new lows in Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp". Our Bear Market Time Window target is the first half of February which included a Fed Day on 2/1, AAPL and AMZN earnings on 2/2, a NFP jobs report on 2/3 and a Full Moon on 2/5.  We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown should be bullish for crude oil at some point – we like buying pullbacks below $70 if seen. The USD made a low at 100.8 on 2/1 and then rallied in 5-waves to test 103.96 before correcting in an EW a-b-c correction that ended today with a spike higher. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% uranium stocks and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX rallied in an EW 5-wave pattern from 12/22 into 1/23 - the 3-wave pullback into 1/25 was bullish for a rally to 4195 during  Fed Week. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to the first half of February for an important turn - this should be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that should peak in the first half of February. However, we still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX made a first hour high today before selling off into the close. Still, the SPX could still mount another rally attempt that could eclipse 4195.

Gold – Gold tested $1900 before dropping hard on a USD spike to $1864.

Silver – Silver is testing $21.85 Thursday evening.

Bonds - Bonds tested a lower low today at 127'25.

Crude Oil – Crude oil pulled back to test its S1-oivot at $76.51 before bouncing to test its Person's pivot.

Dollar Index – The USD finished its EW a-b-c correction early Thursday and spiked higher to derail the PM sector.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 2/6-2/7 Full Moon Timing Window.

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The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 7, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: AAPL pulled the QQQ down to a potential C-wave low at 348.19 as money rotated from the $NDX to the IWM. The QQQ may have finished an EW a-b-c correction with a C-Wave down near 350. Money also rotated into the XLE with both XOM and CVX pushing higher to highs for the week. We were focusing on a pullback into Tuesday/Wednesday for the QQQ and SPY and expect a retest of highs in the SPY and QQQ by Friday. The XLE outperformed crude oil on Wednesday and may be trying to rotate into a leadership position. Crude oil needs to take out $75.06 to give us an EW 5-wave impulsive rally - this will argue that energy stocks could lead on the final move up into the 6/18 New Moon. The USD is coiling for a possible retest of 104.7 by Wednesday/Thursday.

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 6, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The stock market blew off into the Full Moon Timing Window which by our work allows us more rally potential into the next New Moon on 6/18. Most impressive to us was the large Positive Reversal Day in the IWM - money appeared to be rotating out of tech stocks into KRE (regional banks) and the KBE - this could be a fake out move.  The QQQ appears to be tracing out an EW a-b-c correction with a C-Wave down to 350.5 or so a potential target. We had expected more money rotation into energy stocks (XLE) but today we observed Negative Volume Reversal Days in both XOM and CVX and this has kept us from chasing the oil stocks - the uranium stocks may be a different matter. We are now focusing on a pullback into Tuesday/Wednesday for the QQQ and SPY and expect a retest of highs in the SPY AND QQQ by Friday. Crude oil spiked to $75 on the back of the OPEC news Sunday evening but then proceeded to give up the gains during Monday's session - we are skeptical of the energy sector here. Crude oil only gave us a 3-wave rally into the Full Moon Timing Window - this argues for an undercut of $67. Gold bounced to $1980 on Tuesday after making a low on the weekend Full Moon. With just a 3-wave pullback, we are looking for a possible retest of 104.7 by Wednesday/Thursday.

6/6/23 (Commentary for Tuesday) We got a clean 5-waves down from AAPL after it announced it's pricy  new headset on Monday, got a weak corrective bounce on Tuesday and now expect AAPL to lead us in a C-Wave down into Wednesday. Larry Williams cycle work has the SPX peaking in the first 5 days of June  and then selling off into August - Jim Cramer is telling his followers to lighten up on their holdings.  A blow off into a Full Moon usually gives us a pullback in a day or so but keeps the market bullish into the following New Moon in mid-June. Our "Sell in May and walk away" idea did not work out but the current market action feels like a final blow off that has more to go. We do believe that NVDA and AAPL are at crazy valuations but we do not believe in shorting those stocks with a religious following unless there is a compelling setup. Our Bear Market Time Window target in Q2 for the 20-yr cycle which could take us for a test of SPX 3500 by late June seems to be too early  - this week's trade will help to clarify it. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due by Q3 of 2023 for the stock market. Crude oil gave us a test of $75 Sunday evening but gave up its post-OPEC gains on Monday - this is a sign of weakness. The USD made multi-week highs Wednesday at 104.7 before a 3-wave correction into Friday which has us looking for a retest of 104.7 this week. Our current positions are 5% natural gas and wheat, 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The latest black swan of bank failures could drive the 20-yr cycle to a test of SPX 3500 by August - the plunging money supply has us looking for a sharp turn down soon. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction in 2023 as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold is holding at $1981Tuesday evening - a break below $1955 would be bearish. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into late Q2 2023.

Stocks – AAPL's product announcement was a "sell the news" event on Monday and the markets sold off into the close. We are looking for AAPL to lead the QQQ into a C-Wave down into Wednesday with a symmetry target of QQQ 350.5.

Gold – Gold pulled back to $1961 early Monday but then bounced to $1981 Tuesday evening. 

Silver – Silver stocks are trying to lead silver higher.

Bonds – Bonds bounced to 128'10.

Crude Oil – Crude oil spiked into Sunday evening and  tested $75 - however, the gains were given up during Monday's session - this is bearish to us.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 104.7 Wednesday and gave us a 3-wave correction into early Friday - looking for a retest of 104.7 this week.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/5-6/6. 

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The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 5, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The markets rallied Monday until AAPL unveiled its newest product in years - the $3500 price tag for the virtual reality headset sold the market off - a product for the wealthy, not the average user. Still, the market rallied into the 6/2-6/5 Full Moon Timing Window and that argues for more strength into the 6/18 New Moon, at least for the $NDX. Was the IWM rally of Thursday/Friday a false breakout?  We are now looking for a pullback into Tuesday/Wednesday. Crude oil spiked to $75 on the back of the OPEC news Sunday evening but then proceeded to give up the gains during Monday's session. Crude oil only gave us a 3-wave rally into the Full Moon Timing Window - this argues for an undercut of $67. Gold bounced to $1976 on Monday after making a low on the weekend Full Moon. The USD rallied to 104.36 Monday before correcting.

6/5/23 (Commentary for Monday) We got a clean 5-waves down from AAPL after it announced it's pricy  new headset - not a tool for the masses. Larry Williams cycle work has the SPX peaking about right now and then selling off into August - Jim Cramer is telling his followers to lighten up on their holdings.  A blow off into a Full Moon usually gives us a pullback in a day or so but keeps the market bullish into the following New Moon in mid-June. Our "Sell in May and walk away" idea did not work out but the current market action feels like a final blow off. We do believe that NVDA and AAPL are at crazy valuations but we do not believe in shorting those stocks with a religious following unless there is a compelling setup.    Our Bear Market Time Window target in Q2 for the 20-yr cycle which could take us for a test of SPX 3500 by late June seems to be early  - this week's trade will help to clarify it. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due by Q3 of 2023 for the stock market. Crude oil gave us a test of $75 Sunday evening but gave up its post-OPEC gains on Monday. The USD made multi-week highs Wednesday at 104.7 before a 3-wave correction into Friday which has us looking for a retest of 104.7 this week. Our current positions are 5% natural gas and wheat, 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The latest black swan of bank failures could drive the 20-yr cycle to a test of SPX 3500 by late June - the plunging money supply has us looking for a sharp turn down soon. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction in 2023 as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold is testing $1979 Monday evening. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into late Q2 2023.

Stocks – AAPL's product announcement was a "sell the news" event and the markets sold off into the close.

Gold – Gold pulled back to $1961 early Monday but then bounced to $1980 Monday evening. 

Silver – Silver pulled back to $23.34 into early Monday and is correcting sideways into Monday evening.

Bonds – Bonds pulling back to 127'24 Sunday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil spiked into Sunday evening and  tested $75 - however, the gains were given up during Monday's session.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 104.7 Wednesday and gave us a 3-wave correction into early Friday - looking for a retest of 104.7 this week.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/5-6/6. 

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The Weekly JDV Market Timer - June 4, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The stronger than expected NFP jobs report was balanced by the "skip" rhetoric from Fed officials who may be signaling a pause in rate hikes from the FOMC in June. Once again, Big Money tried to sell the open ($TRIN >2) as some large funds are trying to sell on the debt-limit passage. Even so, the market gave us a large breadth day into the close with sectors like banking(KRE, KBE), energy(XLE) and materials(XME) joining in. The market is still in a blow off reminiscent of late 2021 when stocks were making a bull market high. The SPX and NDX are blowing off into the 6/2-6/5 Full Moon Timing Window which to us argues for mor rally into mid-June.  Crude oil rallied to $71.87 late Friday and could still give us a higher spike into Sunday evening or Monday morning. Gold and the GDX sold off into the 6/3 Full Moon and could be close to a trading low. The USD made a low at 103.38 Friday morning and could still test its high at 104.7 early this week.

6/4/23 (Commentary for Sunday) The NFP jobs report came in hotter than expected but the Fedspeak appeared to be guiding the market for a pause in June. Some big money interests tried to sell the market at the open on Friday ($TRIN>2), but the bulls took control and drove the market higher into the close. A blow off into a Full Moon usually gives us a pullback in a day or so but keeps the market bullish into the following New Moon in mid-June. Our "Sell in May and walk away" idea did not work out but the current market action feels like a final blow off. We do believe that NVDA and AAPL are at crazy valuations but we do not believe in shorting those stocks with a religious following unless there is a compelling setup.    However, since the NDX continued to blow off into the Full Moon weekend, this argues for more rally into mid-June after a pullback early in the week. Our Bear Market Time Window target in Q2 for the 20-yr cycle which could take us for a test of SPX 3500 by late June seems to be off - this week's trade will help to clarify it. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due by Q3 of 2023 for the stock market. Crude oil spiked to test $72 on Friday and this may have started a spike into the weekend Full Moon - we saw crude oil test $75 Sunday evening. The USD made multi-week highs Wednesday at 104.7 before a 3-wave correction into Friday which has us looking for a retest of 104.7 in the coming week. Our current positions are 5% natural gas and wheat, 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The latest black swan of bank failures could drive the 20-yr cycle to a test of SPX 3500 by late June - the plunging money supply has us looking for a sharp turn down soon. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction in 2023 as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) On a strengthening USD, gold sold off to under $1940 support before recovering to test $2001 on Thursday. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into late Q2 2023.

Stocks – The market blow off into the weekend Full Moon argues for more market strength into mid-June after a pullback on Monday/Tuesday.

Gold – Gold gave us a 3-wave rally to $2001 before dropping hard on Friday - gold declined into the weekend Full Moon and could see a bounce on Monday.

Silver – Silver declined into the Full Moon Timing Window and is testing $21.65 Sunday night.

Bonds – Bonds pulling back to 127'24 Sunday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil spiked into the weekend Full Moon and tested $75 early Sunday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 104.7 Wednesday and gave us a 3-wave correction into early Friday - looking for a retest of 104.7 this week.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/5-6/6. 

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The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 1, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: It appears to us that the "Big Money" is already trying to sell the news on a passed debt-limit bill. Wednesday was a very interesting day - one of the highest volume days of the year. We had Negative Volume Days on the $NDX, $SPX, $NYA and the IWM - definite signs of distribution and the Big Money trying to get out. Depending how the market reacts to Friday's NFP jobs report, the 6/2-6/5 Full Moon Timing Window could come in as either a high or low.  If it comes in as a high, that argues for more bullish trade into mid-June. If it comes in as a low, this could be the start of a bigger correction from an important high.  Crude oil rallied above $70 today and may have started a spike higher into the Full Moon Timing Window. Gold and the GDX continued to work higher in a Wave C of an EW a-b-c correction that could have more to go. 

6/1/23 (Commentary for Thursday) The market tape shows that the Big Money may be trying to sell the news of the passage of the debt-limit bill. We may have seen a B-Wave test of Tuesday's high in the $NDX and $SPX on Thursday. However, on Wednesday's market tape, we saw Negative Volume Reversal Days in the $SPX,$NDX and $NYA on one of the highest volume days of the year. There is a time and price setup up for an important high this week and the bears have already pressed it hard as can be seen by the very high $TRIN at Wednesday's open of 2.38 and the high TRIN-5 reading of 5.67. From last week, the NDX and SPX have given us 5-wave pattern completions into the 5/31 3-star critical reversal time window. Since we also got an Option Premium Ratio sell signal on back-to-back readings of 0.58, on Friday this argues for some kind of correction into the 6/2-6/5 Full Moon Timing Window.  However, if the NDX continues to blow off into the Full Moon weekend, this will argue for more rally into mid-June. Our Bear Market Time Window target in Q2 for the 20-yr cycle which could take us for a test of SPX 3500 by late June. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due by Q3 of 2023 for the stock market. Crude oil spiked above $70  on Thursday and this may have started a spike into the weekend Full Moon.  The USD made multi-week highs Wednesday at 104.7 before starting a correction that ran into Thursday. More USD correction on Friday could give us more rally in the PM sector. Our current positions are 5% natural gas and wheat, 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The latest black swan of bank failures could drive the 20-yr cycle to a test of SPX 3500 by late June. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction in 2023 as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) On a strengthening USD, gold sold off to under $1940 support before recovering to test $1993 on Wednesday. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into late Q2 2023.

Stocks – The NDX may have given us a B-Wave test of the highs on Wednesday and we could see a C-Wave down into the 6/2-6/5 Full Moon Timing Window. On the other hand, a blow off into the weekend Full Moon would argue for more market strength into mid-June.

Gold – Gold gave us a 3-wave rally to $2000.7 on Thursday as the GDX bounced higher.

Silver – Silver is trying to test $24 Thursday night.

Bonds – Bonds continued to rally to 129'16 on Thursday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil rallied above $70 on Thursday and may be starting a spike into the weekend Full Moon.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 104.7 Wednesday and started a correction that is testing 103.5 Thursday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 5/30-6/1. 

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The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 31, 2023

 

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: With possible pattern completions in the NDX and SPX on Tuesday's open, an Option Premium Ratio sell signal on Friday, and a 3-star critical reversal turn day on 5/31/23, we have a time window for a potential short trade here but we noticed some numbers that too many traders are trying to short the market here. We had a very high $TRIN of 2.38 at Tuesday's open which showed having selling and our TRIN-5 indicator at 5.67 is closer to market oversold levels (6.00) than the overbought levels (4.00) - this makes us cautious. If the NDX can blow off further into the 6/2-6/5 Full Moon Timing War. this will be bullish for more rally into mid-June. This is a dangerous market with only about 10 Big Tech mega-cap stocks doing the rallying - this kind of concentration of capital will get unwound before the end of this bear market. The Bank of America hedge fund report shows the highest investment in technology stocks since December 2021 which was the high before a 33% correction. Clearly, traders are liquidating non-tech stocks to chase the Big Tech guys. Can the QQQ test its all-time high on this move? The charts say that it could be possible especially with the AAII sentiment so bearish. "Higher for longer talk" in the Fed minutes did not not sell off Big Tech that much. Crude oil spiked lower to test $67 today and could be setting up to make a low in the 6/2-6/5 Full Moon Timing Window. Gold and the GDX continued to work higher in a Wave C of an EW a-b-c correction. The USD tested 104.7 Wednesday before correcting. 

5/31/23 (Commentary for Wednesday) The debt-limit deal may be passed by tomorrow and the NDX may give us a gap-up open open early Thursday. There is a time and price setup up for an important high this week but the bears are already pressing on it very hard as can be seen by the very high $TRIN at the open this morning of 2.38 and the high TRIN-5 reading of 5.67. From last week, the NDX and SPX have given us 5-wave pattern completions into the 5/31 3-star critical reversal time window. Since we also got an Option Premium Ratio sell signal on back-to-back readings of 0.58, on Friday argues for some kind of correction into the 6/2-6/5 Full Moon Timing Window.  However, if the NDX continues to blow off into the Full Moon weekend, this will argue for more rally into mid-June.  Breakdowns in copper and silver in mid-May suggest that a major slowdown in the global economy is at hand - after opening up after its Covid lockdown, the Chinese economy has been surprisingly weak - is this a hangover from their real estate bust. Fed assurances or not, the banking crisis is still getting worse and continues to squeeze the US economy with higher rates and an extra round of credit tightening. Regional banks have liquidity issues from jumpy investors afraid of contagion or money market funds that can offer higher returns - with Washington locked up over "debt limit" politics, the chance of a general bank bailout is very slim in the next few months. At this point we can take nothing for granted except market volatility and that "CASH IS NOT TRASH". With the "rate of change" of the M2 money supply falling the hardest since the money collapse of 1930, the US economy is now slowing fast because of the bank-led credit tightening and the SPX and NDX should feel the bite soon. While the SPX held up into the May 18-19 New Moon turn window, we are looking for a potential correction to start in May/June. Our hope is to be close to a 100% invested posture by July at much lower levels in the SPX and NDX. Our cycle work is calling the SPX below 3500 by late June but the bulls are still in control in the short term. We still contend that the SPX market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that could make new lows in late Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp" - the bank failures argue for a hard economic landing as banks panic and tighten lending standards. Money has flown out of banks and into money markets which is spiking the M1 money supply and could facilitate more inflation into the summer. Our Bear Market Time Window target in Q2 for the 20-yr cycle which could take us for a test of SPX 3500 by late June. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due by Q3 of 2023 for the stock market. Crude oil spiked below down to test $67 early Wednesday - is this a buy signal?  The USD made multi-week highs Wednesday at 104.7 before starting a correction. More USD correction this week could give us more rally in the PM sector. Our current positions are 5% natural gas and wheat, 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The latest black swan of bank failures could drive the 20-yr cycle to a test of SPX 3500 by late June. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction in 2023 as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) On a strengthening USD, gold sold off to under $1940 support before recovering to test $1993 on Wednesday. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into late Q2 2023.

Stocks – The NDX gave us a gap-up open on Tuesday before correcting. We may have seen pattern completions on the NDX and SPX and could sell off into the Full Moon weekend.  We could also see a blow off into the weekend Full Moon if the debt-limit deal passes Congress.

Gold – Gold gave us a 3-wave rally to $1993 Wednesday as the GDX bounced higher.

Silver – Silver rallied to test its R2 resistance pivot at $23.74 on Wednesday and then started a sideways correction.

Bonds – Bonds continued to rally to 128'22 Wednesday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $67 on Wednesday - is this a buy signal?

Dollar Index – The USD tested 104.7 Wednesday and started a correction.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 5/30-6/1. 

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The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 30, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The US debt-limit agreement cheered the markets to a gap-up open on the NDX and SPX early Tuesday before starting a correction into the close. We have a possible EW 5-wave pattern completion from last week on the SPX and NDX. We got back-to-back readings of .58 on the Option Premium Ratio on Thursday and Friday and that argues for at least a short-term correction. There is also a 3-star critical reversal day on 5/31 for stocks - we could see more SPX and NDX correction into the weekend Full Moon on 6/3. This is a dangerous market with only about 10 Big Tech mega-cap stocks doing the rallying - this kind of concentration of capital will get unwound before the end of this bear market. The Bank of America hedge fund report shows the highest investment in technology stocks since December 2021 which was the high before a 33% correction. Clearly, traders are liquidating non-tech stocks to chase the Big Tech guys. Can the QQQ test its all-time high on this move? The charts say that it could be possible especially with the AAII sentiment so bearish. "Higher for longer talk" in the Fed minutes did not not sell off Big Tech that much. Talks of possible collapse of the "debt-limit" talks  failed to bring the NDX or SPX down impulsively post-Fed - this is short-term bullish as traders are betting on a bullish outcome. However, we may have seen a small "sell the debt-limit news" on Monday and we could well correct into the weekend Full Moon Timing Window from here.  Crude oil spiked below $70 today and the XLE spiked down here as well - there are easier things to trade.  Gold may have finished an EW a-b-c bounce from last week - the GDX is pausing near its .618 retracement and could bounce into the 6/3 Full Moon or we could capitulate further - near noon today, there were 320,000 calls traded versus only ~20,000 GLD puts - this market is still too frothy in our opinion. The USD got to 105.53 early Tuesday before correcting. 

5/30/23 (Commentary for Tuesday) The debt-level agreement gave us a gap-up open in the NDX and SPX to higher highs for the year and then we started a correction. From last week, the NDX and SPX have given us 5-wave pattern completions into the 5/31 3-star critical reversal time window. Since we also got an Option Premium Ratio sell signal on back-to-back readings of 0.58, on Friday argues for some kind of correction into the 6/2-6/5 Full Moon Timing Window. We may have seen a small "sell on the debt-limit news" correction start this morning.  Big Tech continues to shrug off the rise in long rates and the USD and are being driven by the AI bubble - it feels like traders are selling other non-performing market sectors and jumping onto the Big Tech guys like NVDA. To us, this is a sign that we are approaching an important top. Breakdowns in copper and silver in mid-May suggest that a major slowdown in the global economy is at hand - after opening up after its Covid lockdown, the Chinese economy has been surprisingly weak - is this a hangover from their real estate bust. Fed assurances or not, the banking crisis is still getting worse and continues to squeeze the US economy with higher rates and an extra round of credit tightening. Regional banks have liquidity issues from jumpy investors afraid of contagion or money market funds that can offer higher returns - with Washington locked up over "debt limit" politics, the chance of a general bank bailout is very slim in the next few months. At this point we can take nothing for granted except market volatility and that "CASH IS NOT TRASH". With the "rate of change" of the M2 money supply falling the hardest since the money collapse of 1930, the US economy is now slowing fast because of the bank-led credit tightening and the SPX and NDX should feel the bite soon. While the SPX held up into the May 18-19 New Moon turn window, we are looking for a potential correction to start in May/June. Our hope is to be close to a 100% invested posture by July at much lower levels in the SPX and NDX. Our cycle work is calling the SPX below 3500 by late June but the bulls are still in control in the short term. We still contend that the SPX market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that could make new lows in late Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp" - the bank failures argue for a hard economic landing as banks panic and tighten lending standards. Money has flown out of banks and into money markets which is spiking the M1 money supply and could facilitate more inflation into the summer. Our Bear Market Time Window target in Q2 for the 20-yr cycle which could take us for a test of SPX 3500 by late June. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due by Q3 of 2023 for the stock market. Crude oil spiked below $70 on Tuesday - is this a buy signal? The XLE may be forming a H&S bottom on the daily chart. The USD made multi-week highs early Tuesday at 104.52 before starting a correction. More USD correction this week could give us a rally in the PM sector. Our current positions are 5% natural gas and wheat, 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The latest black swan of bank failures could drive the 20-yr cycle to a test of SPX 3500 by late June. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction in 2023 as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) On a strengthening USD, gold sold off to under $1940 support before recovering to test $1982 on Tuesday. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into late Q2 2023.

Stocks – The NDX gave us a gap-up open on Tuesday before correcting. We may have seen pattern completions on the NDX and SPX and could sell off into the Full Moon weekend.  

Gold – Gold gave us a 3-wave rally to $1982 Tuesday as the GDX made an undercut low.

Silver – Silver rallied to test its R2 resistance pivot at $23.42 on Friday.

Bonds – Bonds bounced to test 128 Tuesday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil undercut $70 Tuesday - is this a buy signal?

Dollar Index – The USD tested 104.52 early Tuesday and started a correction.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 5/30-6/1. 

.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - May 28, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The debt-limit agreement from Saturday night will have a 72-hour read through period but parties on both sides seem to have some issues with it already which may mean that a decent deal was reached. The price patterns of the QQQ and SPY do not look complete to the upside, so we expect more rally on Tuesday.  However, this is a dangerous market with only about 10 Big Tech mega-cap stocks doing the rallying - this kind of concentration of capital will get unwound before the end of this bear market. The Bank of America hedge fund report shows the highest investment in technology stocks since December 2021 which was the high before a 33% correction. Clearly, traders are liquidating non-tech stocks to chase the Big Tech guys. Can the QQQ test its all-time high on this move? The charts say that it could be possible especially with the AAII sentiment so bearish. "Higher for longer talk" in the Fed minutes did not not sell off Big Tech that much. Talks of possible collapse of the "debt-limit" talks  failed to bring the NDX or SPX down impulsively post-Fed - this is short-term bullish as traders are betting on a bullish outcome. Could we see a "sell the news" move after the holiday - that could happen. Crude oil rebounded on Friday and could see a bounce into the 6/2-6/3 Full Moon Timing Window.  Gold found support at $1940 and bounced into the holiday weekend. The USD got to 104.42 on Friday before correcting. More USD correction into this week could give the PM sector a bounce

5/28/23 (Commentary for Sunday) Janet Yellen's announcement on Friday about 6/5 being the technical US default date boosted the market to highs for the year on the NDX and SPX. But with a deal being made Saturday night, the US markets could see a pullback early Tuesday. Big Tech continues to shrug off the rise in long rates and the USD and are being driven by the AI bubble - it feels like traders are selling other non-performing market sectors and jumping onto the Big Tech guys like NVDA. To us, this is a sign that we are approaching an important top. The XLE (oil stocks) gave us an EW a-b-c correction today following the correction in crude oil. Breakdowns in copper and silver in mid-May suggest that a major slowdown in the global economy is at hand - after opening up after its Covid lockdown, the Chinese economy has been surprisingly weak - is this a hangover from their real estate bust. Fed assurances or not, the banking crisis is still getting worse and continues to squeeze the US economy with higher rates and an extra round of credit tightening. Regional banks have liquidity issues from jumpy investors afraid of contagion or money market funds that can offer higher returns - with Washington locked up over "debt limit" politics, the chance of a general bank bailout is very slim in the next few months. At this point we can take nothing for granted except market volatility and that "CASH IS NOT TRASH". With the "rate of change" of the M2 money supply falling the hardest since the money collapse of 1930, the US economy is now slowing fast because of the bank-led credit tightening and the SPX and NDX should feel the bite soon. While the SPX held up into the May 18-19 New Moon turn window, we are looking for a potential correction to start in May/June. Our hope is to be close to a 100% invested posture by July at much lower levels in the SPX and NDX. Our cycle work is calling the SPX below 3500 by late June but the bulls are still in control in the short term. We still contend that the SPX market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that could make new lows in late Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp" - the bank failures argue for a hard economic landing as banks panic and tighten lending standards. Money has flown out of banks and into money markets which is spiking the M1 money supply and could facilitate more inflation into the summer. Our Bear Market Time Window target in Q2 for the 20-yr cycle which could take us for a test of SPX 3500 by late June. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due by Q3 of 2023 for the stock market. Crude oil bounced on Friday and tested its R1 resistance pivot at $73.41 - we are looking for the XLE to rotate into a leadership position. The USD made multi-week highs Friday at 104.42 before starting a correction. More USD correction next week could give us a rally in the PM sector. Our current positions are 5% natural gas and wheat, 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The latest black swan of bank failures could drive the 20-yr cycle to a test of SPX 3500 by late June. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction in 2023 as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) On a strengthening USD, gold sold off to under $1940 support before recovering into Friday. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into late Q2 2023.

Stocks – The NDX blew off into Friday and made highs for the year  - a "sell the news" on the debt-limit deal is possible early Tuesday.

Gold – Gold found support at $1940 and rallied to $1975 early Friday.

Silver – Silver rallied to test its R2 resistance pivot at $23.42 on Friday.

Bonds – Bonds made a lower low at 125'09 and then rallied into Friday evening to close near its Person's Pivot at 126'02.

Crude Oil – Crude oil pulled rallied to test its R1 resistance pivot at $73.36 Friday evening. 

Dollar Index – The USD tested 104.42 Friday and started a correction.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 5/29. 

 

.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 25, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Thursday should be dubbed "The Nvidia rally" as the market got a huge gap up from the NVDA earnings report afterhours, gave about half 0f it back going into noon EDT, but then rallied impulsively into the close with a NYSE market breadth of -1000 at the end of trading. The 3-wave corrections in the NDX and SPX from 5/19 to 5/24 have yielded a new high in the NDX so far and maybe a new high in the SPX  by Friday. However, this is a dangerous market with only about 10 Big Tech mega-cap stocks doing the rallying - this kind of concentration of capital will get unwound some before the end of this bear market. "Higher for longer talk" in the Fed minutes did not not sell off Big Tech that much. Talks of possible collapse of the "debt-limit" talks  failed to bring the NDX or SPX down impulsively post-Fed - this is short-term bullish as traders are betting on a bullish outcome. Positive holiday seasonality helped rally stocks today but how we close on Friday will be key and will reflect the status of the debt-limit stocks. Crude oil fell hard today and took the XLE with it - it's been hard to figure crude oil's intentions the last several weeks. The bonds continue to sell off as the 10 year US rate continues to make higher highs. Gold and PM stocks continue to be pressured down but support at $1940 helped gold reverse higher Thursday night. The USD got to 104.31 and  pressured the PM sector today.

5/25/23 (Commentary for Thursday) A three-wave correction in the NDX forecasted the new high for the year that we saw today . Big Tech continues to shrug off the rise in long rates and the USD and are being driven by the AI bubble - it feels like traders are selling other non-performing market sectors and jumping onto the Big Tech guys like NVDA. To us, this is a sign that we are approaching an important top. The XLE (oil stocks) gave us an EW a-b-c correction today following the correction in crude oil. Breakdowns in copper and silver in mid-May suggest that a major slowdown in the global economy is at hand - after opening up after its Covid lockdown, the Chinese economy has been surprisingly week - is this a hangover from their real estate bust. Fed assurances or not, the banking crisis is still getting worse and continues to squeeze the US economy with higher rates and an extra round of credit tightening. Regional banks have liquidity issues from jumpy investors afraid of contagion or money market funds that can offer higher returns - with Washington locked up over "debt limit" politics, the chance of a general bank bailout is very slim in the next few months. At this point we can take nothing for granted except market volatility and that "CASH IS NOT TRASH". With the "rate of change" of the M2 money supply falling the hardest since the money collapse of 1930, the US economy is now slowing fast because of the bank-led credit tightening and the SPX and NDX should feel the bite soon. While the SPX held up into the May 18-19 New Moon turn window, we are looking for a potential correction to start in May/June. Our hope is to be close to a 100% invested posture by July at much lower levels in the SPX and NDX. Our cycle work is calling the SPX below 3500 by late June but the bulls are still in control in the short term. We still contend that the SPX market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that could make new lows in late Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp" - the bank failures argue for a hard economic landing as banks panic and tighten lending standards. Money has flown out of banks and into money markets which is spiking the M1 money supply and could facilitate inflation into the summer. Our Bear Market Time Window target in Q2 for the 20-yr cycle which could take us for a test of SPX 3500 by late June. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due by Q3 of 2023 for the stock market. Crude oil tested $71 Thursday and led to a 3 -wave correction in the XLE sector. The USD made multi-week highs Thursday at 104.31 and pressured gold below its $1960 support. Our current positions are 5% natural gas and wheat, 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The latest black swan of bank failures could drive the 20-yr cycle to a test of SPX 3500 by late June. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction in 2023 as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) On a strengthening USD, gold sold off to under $1940 support before recovering late Thursday. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into late Q2 2023.

Stocks – The NDX made a new high courtesy of the blow off in NVDA .

Gold – Gold found support at $1940 and started a rally Thursday night.

Silver – After testing $22.78, silver started to bounce Thursday night.

Bonds – Bonds made a lower low at 125'12 as long rates continue to inch higher.

Crude Oil – Crude oil pulled back to test $71 and XLE did a correction.  

Dollar Index – The USD tested 104.31 Thursday and pressured the PM sector down.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 5/23, the Tuesday after a monthly expiration. 

.

stocks doing mar - NVDA's blowout earnings will be a tailwind. After about nine consecutive weekly inventory drawdowns, crude oil is testing $75 and the XLE is moving higher - the oil sector should rotate back into favor. "Higher for longer talk" in the Fed minutes did not not sell off Big Tech that much. Talks of possible collapse at the "debt-limit" talks  failed to bring the NDX or SPX down impulsively post-Fed - this is short-term bullish as traders are betting on a bullish outcome. Gold bounced to $1987 early Wednesday after Comex option expiration but got sold off hard into the Fed minutes. Our bias in recent weeks is that the debt-ceiling talks could end with discord like in 2011 and kickstart a correction for the SPX and NDX but - that has yet to be seen. The bulls are still in control. With anticipation of accelerating economic weakness caused by the bank crisis and possible fallout from a nasty debt-default resolution, raising more cash still makes sense to us even though the NDX and SPX have short-term rally potential.

5/25/23 (Commentary for Thursday) Three-wave corrections in the NDX and SPX from early Friday into Wednesday morning has us looking for higher highs in the NDX onto the holiday weekend. Big Tech continues to shrug off the rise in long rates and the USD and are being driven by the AI bubble. The XLE (oil stocks) appear to be rotating into leadership again and the firming crude oil price is supportive. Breakdowns in copper and silver in mid-May suggest that a major slowdown in the global economy is at hand - after opening up after its Covid lockdown, the Chinese economy has been surprisingly week - is this a hangover from their real estate bust. Fed assurances or not, the banking crisis is still getting worse and continues to squeeze the US economy with an extra round of credit tightening. Regional banks have liquidity issues from jumpy investors afraid of contagion or money market funds that can offer higher returns - with Washington locked up over "debt limit" politics, the chance of a general bank bailout is very slim in the next few months. At this point we can take nothing for granted except market volatility and that "CASH IS NOT TRASH". With the "rate of change" of the M2 money supply falling the hardest since the money collapse of 1930, the US economy is now slowing fast because of the bank-led credit tightening and the SPX and NDX should feel the bite soon. While the SPX held up into the May 18-19 turn window, we are looking for a potential correction to start in June. Our hope is to be close to a 100% invested posture by July at much lower levels in the SPX and NDX. Our cycle work is calling the SPX below 3500 by late June but the bulls are still in control in the short term. We still contend that the SPX market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that could make new lows in late Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp" - the bank failures argue for a hard economic landing as banks panic and tighten lending standards. Money has flown out of banks and into money markets which is spiking the M1 money supply and could facilitate inflation into the summer. Our Bear Market Time Window target in Q2 for the 20-yr cycle which could take us for a test of SPX 3500 by late June. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due by Q3 of 2023 for the stock market. Crude oil tested $75 Wednesday and should support the rotation of the XLE back into a leadership position. The USD is making multi-week highs Wednesday night at 104.06 and pressuring gold below its $1960 support. Our current positions are 5% natural gas and wheat, 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The latest black swan of bank failures could drive the 20-yr cycle to a test of SPX 3500 by late June. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction in 2023 as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold bounced up into Comex option expiration and tested $1987 early Wednesday before getting pressured down by a rising USD. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into late Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX made a new high for the year at 4212.91 near the exact New Moon on Friday and has only given us a 3-wave correction into Wednesday which is short-term bullish.

Gold – Gold tested $1987 early Wednesday but got pressured down by a rising USD and a hawkish Fed minutes. 

Silver – Silver tested $23.02 after the hawkish Fed minutes as its downtrend intensifies.

Bonds – Bonds made a lower low at 126'02 as long rates continue to inch higher.

Crude Oil – After a drawdown in inventory, crude oil tested $75 and the XLE continued to work higher.  

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 104.06 Wednesday night.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 5/23, the Tuesday after a monthly expiration. 

.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 24, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: We still view the NDX correction from early Friday as a 3-wave affair, so we expect the NDX to test its recent highs on Thursday - NVDA's blowout earnings will be a tailwind. After about nine consecutive weekly inventory drawdowns, crude oil is testing $75 and the XLE is moving higher - the oil sector should rotate back into favor. "Higher for longer talk" in the Fed minutes did not not sell off Big Tech that much. Talks of possible collapse at the "debt-limit" talks  failed to bring the NDX or SPX down impulsively post-Fed - this is short-term bullish as traders are betting on a bullish outcome. Gold bounced to $1987 early Wednesday after Comex option expiration but got sold off hard into the Fed minutes. Our bias in recent weeks is that the debt-ceiling talks could end with discord like in 2011 and kickstart a correction for the SPX and NDX but - that has yet to be seen. The bulls are still in control. With anticipation of accelerating economic weakness caused by the bank crisis and possible fallout from a nasty debt-default resolution, raising more cash still makes sense to us even though the NDX and SPX have short-term rally potential.

5/24/23 (Commentary for Wednesday) Three-wave corrections in the NDX and SPX from early Friday into Wednesday morning has us looking for higher highs in the NDX onto the holiday weekend. Big Tech continues to shrug off the rise in long rates and the USD and are being driven by the AI bubble. The XLE (oil stocks) appear to be rotating into leadership again and the firming crude oil price is supportive. Breakdowns in copper and silver in mid-May suggest that a major slowdown in the global economy is at hand - after opening up after its Covid lockdown, the Chinese economy has been surprisingly week - is this a hangover from their real estate bust. Fed assurances or not, the banking crisis is still getting worse and continues to squeeze the US economy with an extra round of credit tightening. Regional banks have liquidity issues from jumpy investors afraid of contagion or money market funds that can offer higher returns - with Washington locked up over "debt limit" politics, the chance of a general bank bailout is very slim in the next few months. At this point we can take nothing for granted except market volatility and that "CASH IS NOT TRASH". With the "rate of change" of the M2 money supply falling the hardest since the money collapse of 1930, the US economy is now slowing fast because of the bank-led credit tightening and the SPX and NDX should feel the bite soon. While the SPX held up into the May 18-19 turn window, we are looking for a potential correction to start in June. Our hope is to be close to a 100% invested posture by July at much lower levels in the SPX and NDX. Our cycle work is calling the SPX below 3500 by late June but the bulls are still in control in the short term. We still contend that the SPX market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that could make new lows in late Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp" - the bank failures argue for a hard economic landing as banks panic and tighten lending standards. Money has flown out of banks and into money markets which is spiking the M1 money supply and could facilitate inflation into the summer. Our Bear Market Time Window target in Q2 for the 20-yr cycle which could take us for a test of SPX 3500 by late June. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due by Q3 of 2023 for the stock market. Crude oil tested $75 Wednesday and should support the rotation of the XLE back into a leadership position. The USD is making multi-week highs Wednesday night at 104.06 and pressuring gold below its $1960 support. Our current positions are 5% natural gas and wheat, 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The latest black swan of bank failures could drive the 20-yr cycle to a test of SPX 3500 by late June. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction in 2023 as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold bounced up into Comex option expiration and tested $1987 early Wednesday before getting pressured down by a rising USD. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into late Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX made a new high for the year at 4212.91 near the exact New Moon on Friday and has only given us a 3-wave correction into Wednesday which is short-term bullish.

Gold – Gold tested $1987 early Wednesday but got pressured down by a rising USD and a hawkish Fed minutes. 

Silver – Silver tested $23.02 after the hawkish Fed minutes as its downtrend intensifies.

Bonds – Bonds made a lower low at 126'02 as long rates continue to inch higher.

Crude Oil – After a drawdown in inventory, crude oil tested $75 and the XLE continued to work higher.  

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 104.06 Wednesday night.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 5/23, the Tuesday after a monthly expiration. 

.