All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 16, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX appeared to be correcting in a small 4th wave correction as we enter Friday's monthly option expiration. After a 5th wave higher above 5965, we could then see a pullback to test the gap at 5843. Our bias is that the stock market has entered a "bear phase" in 2025 with multiple 15% corrections - we are not looking for a stock market crash, however. Since the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator failed to tag 0.60 on 1/6 and gave us a "bear market signal", we remain 100% cash in our trading account for the time being. After an EW 5-wave rally on the hourly chart, bonds are correcting sideways overnight. The first year of the Presidential cycle correlates with stock market volatility in 2025 and we are seeing that as the incoming US administration shapes its agenda. Gold tagged $2757.9 on Thursday and started a correction Thursday, but the gold and silver stocks look bullish. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going into 2025. Our current positions average 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum. We have a 25% allocation to our trading account which is currently in cash.

TURNING POINT DAY

The next turn window is 1/20-1/21.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 15, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: A cooler-than-expected CPI report kicked off a big rally on Wednesday which gave us three rally days in a row. Has the stock market correction ended? This week's rally started when the SPX filled the 11/6 gap and rebounded. Cooler-than-expected PPI and CPI inflation reports kept the SPX in rally mode. On Monday, in the first hour, we we noticed three times as many puts as calls in the IWM and sensed a sentiment extreme. On Wednesday, the VIX gave us a 3-wave corrective bounce which looked bearish for the VIX or bullish for the SPX as the market closed. Since the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator failed to tag 0.60 on 1/6 and gave us a "bear market signal", we remain 100% cash in our trading account. The bonds only gave us a 3-wave rally on Wednesday which implies that today's stock rally may be short lived. The first year of the Presidential cycle correlates with stock market volatility in 2025 and we could see multiple corrections of 15% in a volatile year as the new US administration settles into power. Gold and silver rebounded Wednesday but the gold and silver stocks tagged throughout the day. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going into 2025. Our current positions average 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum. We have a 25% allocation to our trading account which is currently in cash.

1/15/25 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX gave us a big rally today on a weaker-than-feared CPI report and we now have a 3-day rally in place. The turn window on 1/19-1/25 could conceivably be a high for the SPX and NDX but our technical analysis has us looking for a "lower high". The bond market could only manage a 3-wave rally on Wednesday which argues for lower lows soon. Despite the rally today, the IWM may still be tracing out a potential mini-crash pattern from 11/25 and could bottom out in the 1/19-1/21 turn window near its 55-day Fibonacci step out. Weaker-than-expected PPI and CPI inflation reports gave the bonds a much-needed technical rebound and closed the SPX above 5937. Still, the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator failed to confirm the bull market in stocks on 1/6 and gave us a BEAR MARKET SIGNAL for the US stock market in early 2025 - we remain in 100% cash for our trading accounts, but that could change going into next week. Rising rates have dominated the US stock market action in 2025 and the overvalued SPX is vulnerable if the 10-yr US bond tests the 5% level this week. The SPX may have made a major high on 12/6 at 6099 and we need to respect the price action and market breadth deterioration. We urge traders to raise at least 50% cash for a volatile market. After bottoming on Monday's Full Moon, gold and silver rallied hard after Wednesday's CPI inflation report. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  On Monday, the SPX filled the gap from 11/6 and reversed higher into Wednesday's close after a weaker-than-expected CPI report. However, rising rates are creating the risk of volatile price action for US stocks into 1/19-1/21.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Sentiment for gold and silver was very low going into late 2024 and that  gave gold a boost into early 2025. Gold and silver sold off hard into Monday's Full Moon but then, after a weaker-than-feared CPI report, gold and silver rallied hard into Wednesday's close..

Stocks – The SPX filled the gap from 11/6 and continued accelerated its rally into Wednesday's close. Rising US rates could trigger volatility in stocks into 1/19-1/21. We're staying 100% cash in our trading account but that could change if we get a bull market confirmation signal.

Gold - Gold and the GDX may have made a significant low on 1/6. Gold got sold hard on Monday going into the Full Moon but then reversed higher impulsively after a weaker-than-feared CPI report.

Silver –  Silver got sold down to $30.40 on Monday's Full Moon, but reversed higher after the CPI report.

Bonds – Bonds only gave us a 3-wave rally after the CPI report - lower lows are still possible.

Crude Oil – Crude oil roared to $80.77 into Wednesday evening and then corrected.

Dollar Index – The USD corrected to 108.58 before reversing higher on Wednesday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 1/13-1/15, and the PPI and CPI inflation reports are key.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 14, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX filled the gap from 11/05 early Monday and started a corrective rally that continued into Tuesday. The PPI inflation report came in cooler than expected and started a rally that could continue into Wednesday. Still, rising US rates, rising crude oil and a strong USD continue to pressure the US stock market and there may be no sustained rally unless we also get a good CPI inflation report early Wednesday. Since the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator failed to tag 0.60 on 1/6 and gave us a "bear market signal", we remain in 100% cash in our trading account. Rising rates are the main driving force in US markets currently and we could see more downside volatility in stocks if bonds are unable to rally. We reiterate our call for at least raising 50% cash. The first year of the Presidential cycle argues for stock market volatility in 2025 and we could see multiple corrections of 15% in a volatile year as the new US administration settles into power. Gold and silver rebounded some today but the gold and silver stocks outperformed which is bullish. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going into 2025. Our current positions average 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum. We have a 25% allocation to our trading account which is currently in cash.

1/14/25 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX gap down and reversal up early Monday continued on Tuesday and we could see further rally on Wednesday unless we see a disturbing print in CPI inflation report. Our bias, however, is that "official CPI inflation" bottomed last Fall and is starting to tick higher - rising chicken prices, rising egg prices, and rising gasoline prices could be felt in the CPI report tomorrow. The bond market is sensing higher inflation and continues to make lower lows - we tested 110'19 today before bouncing correctively into the evening which is BEARISH. The IWM is tracing out a potential mini-crash pattern from 11/25 and could bottom out in the 1/19-1/21 turn window near its 55-day Fibonacci step out. The CPI report early Wednesday is now the focus of a US stock market that could retrench significantly into monthly option expiration on 1/17-1/21. Weaker-than-expected PPI and CPI inflation reports, however,  could give the bonds a much-needed technical rebound and help stocks probe higher levels. The Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator failed to confirm the bull market in stocks on 1/6 and gave us a BEAR MARKET SIGNAL for the US stock market in early 2025 - we remain in 100% cash for our trading accounts. Rising rates dominate the US stock market action here and the overvalued SPX is vulnerable if the 10-yr US bond tests the 5% level this week. The SPX may have made a major high on 12/6 at 6099 and we need to respect the price action and market breadth deterioration. We urge traders to raise at least 50% cash. Gold and silver pulled back hard into Monday's Full Moon but the gold and silver stocks rebounded well on Tuesday. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  On Monday, the SPX filled the gap from 11/6 and reversed higher into the Tuesday's close. However, rising rates are creating the risk of a mini-panic for US stocks into 1/19-1/21.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Sentiment for gold and silver was very low going into late 2024 and that  gave gold a boost into early 2025. Gold and silver sold off into Monday's Full Moon but the gold and silver stocks rebounded well on Tuesday.

Stocks – The SPX filled the gap from 11/6 and continued its rally until Tuesday's close, but the bonds continued to test lower lows. Rising US rates could force a mini-panic in stocks into 1/19-1/21. The  CPI report early Wednesday will be widely watched. We're staying in 100% cash in our trading account.

Gold - Gold and the GDX may have made a significant low on 1/6. Gold got sold hard on Monday going into the Full Moon but the gold stocks outperformed gold on Tuesday which is bullish.

Silver –  Silver got sold down to $30.40 on Monday's Full Moon, but the silver stocks looked bullish on Tuesday.

Bonds – Bonds made lower lows on Tuesday and continue to pressure stocks.

Crude Oil – Crude oil roared to $79.27 into Monday's Full Moon and then corrected into Tuesday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 109 overnight Tuesday Monday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 1/13-1/15, and the PPI and CPI inflation reports are key.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 13, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us a gap down open Monday but fought its way back to positive by the close. Did the market get wind of a market-friendly PPI inflation report early Tuesday? We shall soon see. The SPX did gap down to fill the gap from 11/6 and closed near the high of the day as the market approached the exact Full Moon. Still, rising US rates, rising crude oil and a strong USD continue to pressure the US stock market and there may be no sustained rally until a decent number on the PPI inflation report on Tuesday or the CPI inflation report on Wednesday is seen. Since the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator failed to tag 0.60 on 1/6 and gave us a "bear market signal", we remain in 100% cash in our trading account. Rising rates are the main driving force in US markets and we could see more downside volatility in stocks if bonds are unable to rally. We reiterate our call for at least raising 50% cash. The first year of the Presidential cycle argues for stock market volatility in 2025 and we could see multiple corrections of 15% in a volatile year as the new US administration settles into power. Gold and silver corrected hard into Monday's Full Moon but crude oil roared to $79.27, a multi-month high. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going into 2025. Our current positions average 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum. We have a 25% allocation to our trading account which is currently in cash.

1/13/25 (Commentary for Monday) The gap down and reversal up in the SPX gives a potential springboard for further rally unless we see a disturbing print in the PPI or CPI inflation report. Our bias, however, is that "official inflation" bottomed last Fall and is starting to tick higher. The bond market is sensing higher inflation and continues to make lower lows - we tested 110'25 today before bouncing correctively into the evening which is BEARISH. The IWM is tracing out a potential mini-crash pattern from 11/25 and could bottom out in the 1/19-1/21 turn window near its 55-day Fibonacci step out. The PPI inflation report early Tuesday and CPI report early Wednesday are now the focus of a US stock market that could retrench significantly into monthly option expiration on 1/17-1/21. Weaker-than-expected PPI and CPI inflation reports could give the bonds a much-needed technical rebound and help stocks probe higher levels. The Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator failed to confirm the bull market in stocks on 1/6 and gave us a BEAR MARKET SIGNAL for the US stock market in early 2025 - we remain in 100% cash for our trading accounts. Rising rates dominate the US stock market action here and the overvalued SPX is vulnerable if the 10-yr US bond tests the 5% level this week. The SPX may have made a major high on 12/6 at 6099 and we need to respect the price action and market breadth deterioration. We urge traders to raise at least 50% cash. Gold and silver pulled back hard into today's Full Moon as crude oil made a big run to $79.27. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  Rising rates from a stronger-than-expected NFP jobs report pressured the markets on Friday. On Monday, the SPX filled the gap from 11/6 and reversed higher into the close but the US bonds continued to make lower lows. Rising rates are creating the risk of a mini-panic for US stocks into 1/19-1/21.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Sentiment for gold and silver was very low going into late 2024 and that  gave gold a boost into early 2025. Gold is rising against a strong USD which is bullish and tested $2735 on Friday. Gold was sold hard into Monday's Full Moon

Stocks – The SPX gave us a gap-down open that filled the 11/6 gap before rising to positive by the close, but the bonds continued to test lower lows. Rising US rates could force a mini-panic in stocks into 1/19-1/21. The PPI and CPI reports are key on Tuesday and Wednesday. We're staying in 100% cash in our trading account.

Gold - Gold and the GDX may have made a significant low on 1/6. Gold got sold hard on Monday going into the Full Moon.

Silver –  Silver got sold down to $30.40 on Monday's Full Moon - we need to see an impulsive rally higher after the PPI and CPI inflation report to remain short-term bullish.

Bonds – Bonds corrected sideways going into Monday evening before the PPI report.

Crude Oil – Crude oil roared to $79.27 into Monday's Full Moon.

Dollar Index – The USD is pulling back to 109.48 Monday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 1/13-1/15, and the PPI and CPI inflation reports are key.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - January 12, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The stronger-than-expected NFP jobs report on Friday rocked the financial markets hard. The bonds had a large Negative Volume Reversal Day as did the SPX, NDX and IWM.  Rising US rates and rising crude oil continued to pressure the US stock market and there may be no relief until the PPI inflation report on Tuesday and the CPI inflation report on Wednesday. The coming week in the financial markets is very important and the PPI and CPI inflation report will help set the tone.  Since the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator failed to tag 0.60 on 1/6 and gave us a "bear market signal", we remain in 100% cash in our trading account. Rising rates are the main driving force in US markets and we could see more downside volatility in stocks if bonds are unable to rally. We reiterate our call for at least raising 50% cash. The first year of the Presidential cycle argues for stock market volatility in 2025 and we could see multiple corrections of 15% in a volatile year as the new US administration settles into power. Gold continues to rally in the face of a strong USD which is bullish. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going into 2025. Our current positions average 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition.

1/12/25 (Commentary for Sunday) A stronger-than-expected NFP jobs report Friday rattled the bond market again and spiked the US 10-year rate to 4.78%. The bonds made a lower low at 110'28 early Friday and bounced but are testing those levels overnight Sunday. The IWM is tracing out a potential mini-crash pattern from 11/25 and could bottom out in the 1/19-1/21 turn window near its 55-day Fibonacci step out. The PPI inflation report early Tuesday and CPI report early Wednesday are now the focus of a US stock market that could retrench significantly into monthly option expiration on 1/17-1/21. Weaker-than-expected PPI and CPI inflation reports could give the bonds a much-needed rebound. However, the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator failed to confirm the bull market in stocks on 1/6 and gave us a BEAR MARKET SIGNAL for the US stock market early 2025 - we remain in 100% cash for many of  our trading accounts. Rising rates dominate the US stock market action here and the overvalued SPX is vulnerable if the 10-yr bond tests the 5% level in the coming week. The SPX may have made a major high on 12/6 at 6099 and we need to respect the price action and market breadth deterioration. We urge traders to raise at least 50% cash. Gold and silver may have made important lows in the 12/15-12/19 3-star critical reversal turn window and gold made highs for January on Friday at $2735. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  Rising rates from a stronger-than-expected NFP jobs report pressured the markets on Friday. Rising rates are creating the risk of a mini-panic for US stocks into 1/19-1/21.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Sentiment for gold and silver was very low going into late 2024 and that is giving gold a boost into early 2025. Gold is rising against a strong USD which is bullish and tested $2735 on Friday.

Stocks – Rising US rates could force a mini-panic in stocks into 1/19-1/21. The PPI and CPI reports are key on Tuesday and Wednesday. We're staying in 100% cash in our trading account.

Gold - Gold and the GDX may have made a significant low on 1/6. Gold got sold hard on Monday going into the Full Moon.

Silver –  Silver got sold down to $30.40 on Monday's Full Moon - we need to see an impulsive rally higher after the PPI and CPI inflation report to remain short-term bullish.

Bonds – Bonds made a short-term low at 110'28 early Friday and bounced, but the lows are being retested Sunday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $78.58 overnight Sunday.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 110 overnight Sunday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 1/14-1/15, and the PPI and CPI inflation reports are key.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 9, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX finished 5-waves down on the hourly into early Wednesday and bounced. The NFP jobs report will set the tone early Friday. Since the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator failed to tag 0.60 on Monday and gave us a "bear market signal", we remain in 100% cash. The SPX could have finished a 4th wave triangle on the daily chart on Wednesday, but we will need to see impulsive action above SPX 6020 to turn us bullish. The downtrend in the US bond market remains in force - the rebound from early Wednesday looks corrective to us. Rising rates are the main driving force here and we could see more downside volatility in stocks if bonds are unable to rally. We reiterate our call for at least raising 50% cash. The first year of the Presidential cycle argues for stock market volatility in 2025 and we could see multiple corrections of 15% in a volatile year as the new US administration settles into power. Gold continues to rally in the face of a strong USD which is bullish. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going into 2025. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition.

1/09/25 (Commentary for Thursday) A weaker-than-expected ADP jobs report came in early Wednesday, but the bonds made a lower low at 111'14 near the open and bounced. The NFP jobs report early Friday is now the focus of the stock market. A weaker-than-expected NFP jobs report could give the bonds a bigger rebound. The Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator failed to confirm the bull market in stocks on Monday and gave us a BEAR MARKET SIGNAL for early 2025 - we remain in 100% cash for our trading accounts. The SPX may have finished a 4th wave triangle on the daily chart on Wednesday - if so, we would need to see the SPX break above 6029 in an impulsive manner to turn bullish. Rising rates dominate the stock market action here and the overvalued SPX is vulnerable if the 10-yr bond tests the 5% level. The SPXEW, DJIA and IWM have corrected since early December and we need to respect this price action and market breadth deterioration. We urge traders to raise at least 50% cash. Gold and silver may have made important lows in the 12/15-12/19 3-star critical reversal turn window and continue to make higher highs into January. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  Rising rates from stronger than expected economic reports roiled the stock market on Tuesday. The NFP jobs report early Friday is now in focus. Rising rates are creating the risk of a mini-panic into mid-January.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Sentiment for gold and silver was very low going into late 2024 and that is giving gold a boost into early 2025. Gold is rising against a strong USD which is bullish .

Stocks – The SPX may have finished a 4th wave triangle on the daily chart on Wednesday - we need to see an impulsive rally above 6020 to turn us bullish. We're staying in 100% cash in our trading account.

Gold - Gold and the GDX may have made a significant low on Monday. Gold is rising against a strong USD Thursday night which is bullish.

Silver –  Silver is underperforming gold Thursday evening.

Bonds – Bonds made a short-term low at 111'14 early Wednesday but the rebound looks corrective.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $74.55 overnight Thursday.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 109.29 overnight Thursday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 1/6-1/7 and 1/10, the NFP jobs report.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 7, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX is giving us big volatility into the New Year - so far we have done 5-waves up from Thursday to Monday and then 3-waves down into Tuesday - the bulls need to get going here - just a weak, corrective bounce on Wednesday will be bearish. Since the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator failed to tag 0.60 on Monday and gave us a "bear market signal", we remain in 100% cash. Stronger than expected economic reports early Tuesday hit the bonds and boosted rates pressuring stocks down - rising rates are the main driving force here and we could see more downside volatility in stocks if bonds are unable to rally. We reiterate our call for at least raising 50% cash. The first year of the Presidential cycle argues for stock market volatility in 2025 and we could see multiple corrections of 15% in a volatile year as the new US administration settles into power. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going into 2025. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition.

1/07/25 (Commentary for Tuesday) A stronger than expected JOLTS number(job openings) and ISM number hit bonds and boosted the 10-yr US Treasury rate to 4.7% early in the day which hit stocks hard. The Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator failed to confirm the bull market in stocks on Monday and gave us a BEAR MARKET SIGNAL for early 2025. The SPX rallied 5-waves up on the hourly chart from Thursday to Monday and then 3-waves down into Tuesday - just a weak bounce on Wednesday would be very negative. The SPXEW, DJIA and IWM have corrected since early December and we need to respect this price action and market breadth deterioration. We urge traders to raise at least 50% cash. Gold and silver may have made important lows in the 12/15-12/19 3-star critical reversal turn window and then made higher highs in the 1/2-1/3 turn window. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  Rising rates from stronger than expected economic reports roiled the stock market on Tuesday.  Just a weak bounce in the SPX on Wednesday would be bearish. Raise cash.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Sentiment for gold and silver was very low going into late 2024 and that could lead to a significant rally in the PM sector in early 2025.

Stocks – The SPX is 5-waves up from Thursday to Monday and then 3-waves down into Tuesday - just a corrective bounce on Wednesday would be BEARISH for a test of 5800.

Gold - Gold and the GDX may have made a significant low on Thursday. The low DSI sentiment number for gold at 48 on 12/18 argues that a short-term low was made into year end. Rising rates are holding gold back in the near term.

Silver –  Silver is trying to lead gold higher in the short term. Rising rates keep us cautious.

Bonds – Bonds tested 111'31 on Tuesday and is trying to bounce. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing multi-week highs at $75.29 overnight Tuesday.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 108.8 overnight Tuesday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 1/6-1/7 and 1/10, the NFP jobs report.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 06, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us a gap-up open Monday but the gains were concentrated on the Big Tech stocks. The SPX failed to hold above 6000 and gain up much of the gains into the close. This week is a Fed week with minutes on Wednesday and a NFP jobs report on Friday and the usual seasonality applies - the SPX makes a high on Monday and then pulls back into the Fed minutes. The ZBT indicator did not tag 0.60 on the 10th trading day and this argues for a bear market into January. The SPX appears to have rallied in an EW 5-waves up from Thursday into Monday - just a 3-wave correction into the Fed minutes on Wednesday would be bullish. We reiterate our call for raising 50% cash going into January. The first year of the Presidential cycle argues for stock market volatility in 2025 and we could see multiple corrections of 15% in a volatile year as the new US administration settles into power. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going into 2025. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition.

1/06/25 (Commentary for Monday) The Big Tech stocks dominated the rally action on Monday but the SPX gave up much of its gains into the close. The Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator did not tag 0.60 in the ten trading days allowed and signaled a bear market into January. The SPX did rally in an EW 5-waves from Thursday to Monday and just a 3-wave correction into the Wednesday Fed minutes will be short-term bullish. Back-to-back prints of 0.77 into Thursday's close was short-term bullish, however, and Monday's rally was no surprise but the failure to hold above 6000 was notable. The SPXEW, DJIA and IWM have corrected hard in December and we need to respect this price action and market breadth deterioration. The Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) indicator triggered on 12/19 with a close below 0.35 but failed to close above 0.60 on Monday and accordingly is giving a BEAR Market SIGNAL The big increase in "insider selling" for CEOs in the S&P 500 is a warning sign that an important stock market high (in a broadening top formation) may be behind us in the US stock market. Gold and silver may have made important lows in the 12/15-12/19 3-star critical reversal turn window and then made higher highs in the 1/2-1/3 turn window. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 1/6-1/7.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - January 5, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX finished a minimal EW a-b-c correction from 12/6 into 1/2-and then bounced into Friday. Just a 3-wave bounce from Thursday into Monday will be bearish for more decline. A Zweig Breadth Thrust signal was triggered on 12/19 on a touch of 0.35 - Monday will finish ten trading days forward on 1/6 and the indicator must at least 0.60 to RECONFIRM THE BULL MARKET IN STOCKS - if it fails, the stock market will CONFIRM A POSSIBLE BEAR MARKET into 2025. Our fear gauges started moving aggressively higher today on Thursday and gave us a bounce on Friday, but how we trade on Monday will be key because 1/6 will be the 34-day step out from the 12/6 ATH and time is running out for the SPX to RECONFIM its bull market. At this juncture, we favor the GDX which gave us nice upside reversal action Thursday after the Moon ingressed into Aquarius early Wednesday which is often seen at lows for the PM sector. We our currently long the GDX and will continue to add to shares on corrective dips. Gold also had a nice reversal higher on Thursday and appears to be rallying in a B-Wave retest of the $2800 ATH. We reiterate our call for raising 50% cash going into January. The first year of the Presidential cycle argues for stock market volatility in 2025 and we could see multiple corrections of 15% in a volatile year as the new US administration settles into power. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going into 2025. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition.

1/03/25 (Commentary for Friday) The SPX gave us a "minimal EW a-b-c" correction into from the 12/6 high into Thursday, 1/2. How the rally from Thursday evolves into Monday is key - just a 3-wave price action would be bearish. Back-to-back prints of 0.77 into Thursday's close was short-term bullish, however, and Monday's tape will enlighten us. How the ZBT trades on Monday is also key - less than 0.60 on this indicator will be intermediate-term bearish. The SPXEW, DJIA and IWM have corrected hard in December and we need to respect this price action and market breadth deterioration. The Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) indicator triggered on 12/19 with a close below 0.35 and we will be monitoring this closely into Monday. If the ZBT makes a daily close above 0.60 on 1/6, this will be bullish for early 2025 ... if it can't, it will call for a bearish New Year for the US stock market. The big increase in "insider selling" for CEOs in the S&P 500 is a warning sign that an important stock market high (in a broadening top formation) may be behind us in the US stock market. Gold and silver may have made important lows in the 12/15-12/19 3-star critical reversal turn window and then made higher highs in the 1/2-1/3 turn window. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The TRIN-5 indicator printed 6.05 at the close on Friday and > 6.0 is oversold for the SPX- How the SPX trades on Monday is key to the short-term trend.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold and silver put in a short-term low going into the 1/2-1/3 turn window which correlated with the Moon in Aquarius.  Sentiment for gold and silver was very low going into late 2024 and that could lead to a significant rally in the PM sector in early 2025.

Stocks – The SPX may have ended a "minimal EW a-b-c decline" going into Thursday and the rally on Friday needs to be watched closely on Monday if it turns 3-wave corrective.

Gold - Gold and the GDX may have made a significant low on Thursday. The low DSI sentiment number for gold at 48 on 12/18 argues that a short-term low is being made into year end. We like NEM and GOLD for a post "tax-loss selling" bounce into January.

Silver –  The low DSI sentiment number for silver on 12/18 argued that an important low was made at $29.14 on 12/20 and retested on 12/31.

Bonds – Bonds are testing 113'01 Sunday evening and that is bearish.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $74.30 on Friday and looks bullish as the market tries to price in new Iranian sanctions under Trump 2.0.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 109.5 on Thursday, a multi-month high, and is pulling back to 108.65 Sunday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 1/6.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 2, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  Another brief report for this holiday trading week. The SPX is close to finishing a minimal EW a-b-c correction from 12/6 into our 1/2-1/3 turn window. One more undercut low below 5829.63 is possible going int0 Friday. Our fear gauges started moving aggressively higher today: the closing CBOE put/call ratio jumped from 0.79 to 1.05 and the CBOE equity put/call ratio jumped from 0.46 to 0.80 - this has turned our short-term bias to BULLISH. The Option Premium Ratio also gave us a back-to-back reading of 0.77 on Thursday's close and this is a short-term BUY SIGNAL. We would not be pushing the short side going into Friday. At this juncture, we favor the PM(Precious Metal) which gave us nice upside reversal action today after the Moon ingressed into Aquarius early Wednesday which is often seen at lows. We our currently long the GDX and will continue to add to shares on corrective dips. Gold also had a nice reversal higher on Thursday and appears to be rallying in a B-Wave retest of the $2800 ATH. We reiterate our call for raising 50% cash going into January. The ZBT, the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator, closed below the 0.35 trigger on 12/19 - if it closes above 0.60 by Jan 6, 2025, that is bullish for early 2025 ... if it can't, it will call for a bearish New Year. The first year of the Presidential cycle argues for stock market volatility in 2025 and we could see multiple corrections of 15% in a volatile year as the new US administration settles into power. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going into 2025. Gold made a dramatic undercut low to $2596 in the 3-star critical reversal window on 12/15-12/18 and that level got retested on Monday before reversing higher. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week is the 12/30-12/31 New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 1, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The E-mini appears to have made an EW 5-wave decline into early Monday and then just an EW a-b-c bounce into Wednesday evening which is bearish for lower lows on Thursday/Friday. The SPX rally from early Monday looks corrective and could be just the Wave 2 of a C-Wave down that needs to fill that huge daily gap on 11/6 (from 5784-5867). The SPX did trace out a B-Wave test of resistance at SPX 6047 on 12/24 (from the breakdown after the "bearish pause" FOMC statement). The SPX may need to complete a zig-zag correction into the New Year that could target the 5800 area. The Option Premium Ratio printed 0.77 on Tuesday's close and exceeded the previous week's high of 0.76 which we view as SHORT-TERM BEARISH. Our bias has now turned BEARISH and we are concerned about a move down into early January that could test the gap area around 5800. Three consecutive TRIN-5 SELL SIGNALs (< 4.00) gave us a sell off on 12/27 and then Monday, and has made us defensive going into the New Year. We reiterate our call for raising 50% cash going into January. The ZBT, the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator, closed below the 0.35 trigger on 12/19 - if it closes above 0.60 by Jan 6, 2025, that is bullish for early 2025 ... if it can't, it will call for a bearish New Year. The first year of the Presidential cycle argues for stock market volatility in 2025 and we could see multiple corrections of 15% in a volatile year as the new US administration settles into power. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going into 2025. Gold made a dramatic undercut low to $2596 in the 3-star critical reversal window on 12/15-12/18 and that level got retested on Monday. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 1/2-1/3.