Financial Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 27, 2023


Market Observations for the Week: The hourly SPX has been consolidating sideways since testing 4568 early on 11/22 and the VIX continues rolling over - this is short-term bullish. We still believe in holding unmargined shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA because we are intermediate-term bearish.  The SPX did test our target of 4563 Friday but failed to break down. The Friday after Thanksgiving has very positive seasonality and held up into the close. Bears thought that Monday could be amenable to a pullback but the SPX remained in its sideways consolidation which we view as short-term bullish. The continued meltdown in the VIX is short-term bullish. The coil pattern on the IWM from 11/16 appears to be short-term bullish. The 10-yr US rate continues to pullback and may be close to 5-waves down on the hourly chart which is short-term bullish for stocks. From an astro-finance perspective, the week into 11/21 was a major Turning Point Week and the SPX continued to hold up which is bullish. The bad 10-yr US bond auction and the bad 30-yr US bond auction last week argue for higher 10-yr US rates in the short term but that has not materialized yet. We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We've added shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA on rallies - we're hanging on to these short shares for more potential selling into mid-December. If we get a retest of the 10/27 low at SPX 4103 by early December, selling these shares would be optimal. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

11/27/23 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX rallied to 4560.62  on Monday which tested our 4563 target and then continued to trace out what appears to be a 4th wave correction into the close. The SPX needs a rally higher than SPX 4568 to finish a 5th wave higher from 10/27. The bullish case has the SPX working on finishing a 5-wave impulsive advance from 10/27 on Tuesday and the bearish case has the SPX finishing a Wave 5 of C of 2 correction on Tuesday after an EW 5-waves down from the July high on the daily chart. The key for the bullish case is for the IWM to take out its 11/16 high at 182 in a 5th wave that would be a bullish signal. We're taking the market one day at a time here and weighing the bullish and bearish technicals carefully. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA shares on a retest of SPX 4260 if they are in profit territory or on a retest of SPX 4103 in mid-December. It will take an impulsive leg down below SPX 4100 to get us really short-term bearish into mid-December  Crude oil bottomed at $72.37 on 11/16 but appears to be working on an EW 5-waves down from 9/28 on the hourly chart which could make lower lows.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade by Moody after the close on 11/10 and the global rise in long rates should reverse the SPX trend down by early December despite the recent rally in the bonds. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold tested $1937 on 11/10 and rallied to $2036 on Monday evening, 11/27. Silver may be breaking out of its multi-month downtrend line.

Stocks –  The SPX continued its sideways consolidation into Monday(4th wave) and the bears failed to break it down. We need a rally above 4568 early on Tuesday to finish wave 5 from 10/27.

Gold Gold is testing $2037 on Monday's Full Moon but could see more gain into Comex option expiration on Wednesday. 

Silver – The bullion banks could not knock silver down below $24 by Monday's close and we are rallying above $25 Monday evening.

Bonds – Bonds rallied to 116'01 on Monday evening

Crude Oil -  Crude oil spiked to $76.26 on Monday's Full Moon and is correcting with a 3-wave pullback. 

Dollar IndexThe USD declined to 103.07 on Monday which is bullish for the Pm sector.


The turn window for this week is 11/27-11/28.

November 24, 2023

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