All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - October 3, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Overall, bias is that the SPX is making an EW a-b-c correction from the early 9/26 high into the 10/2-10/4 New Moon Timing Window and should resolve higher after the NFP jobs report early Friday. However, both the SPX and gold are up 30% this year and and instead of pushing on this already extended trades, we prefer to take trades on the FXI (Chinese stocks) which we favored early in the year. With the new Chinese stimulus plan, we think that FXI will trend higher as the US continues to make a "large broadening top formation". According, we are looking to add swing trades if the FXI pulls back to 32(a previous 4th wave low) and will look to take first profits at 40. Our bias is that the 3-wave correction in the SPX will end by Thursday/Friday.  The new ATHs in the SPX, DJIA, and NYSE composite post-Fed rate cut last week argue that the 2007 year analog stock market model is working for this Fall and that higher highs in the SPX are possible into October 11-15. However, if the TRIN-5 tests 4.00 (overbought), we will issue a SELL signal on the SPX and turn defensive. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

10/03/24 (Commentary for Thursday)  The US markets have broadly shaken off the Iranian missile attack against Israel as minimal damage occurred. The SPX is giving us just a 3-wave correction from early on 9/26 into Thursday/Friday this week and we expect a reversal higher after the NFP jobs report. The QQQ appears to be declining in 3-waves into the 10/2 New Moon/Solar Eclipse and could undercut 477 into Thursday/Friday. After 30% gains in both the SPX and gold this year, we are more interested in buying dips in the FXI (Chinese stocks) if we get a dip to 32. The year 2007 SPX analog model appears to be working here and allows for a new SPX ATH into October 11 above 5767 - however, if our TRIN-5 model tests 4.00(overbought), we will issue a SELL SIGNAL for the SPX. Our bias allows for the possibility of some indices making a new ATH into October and the IWM could play catch up here. Gold is coiling on the hourly chart as we approach Friday's NFP jobs report and we expect another test of $2007 soon.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a new ATH at 5767 early Thursday and is now giving us a 3-wave correction into the 10/2-19/4 New Moon/Solar Eclipse timing window before it reverses higher to a new ATH into 10/11-10/15. The year 2007 SPX analog model made higher SPX highs into 10/11.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold gave us a 3-wave correction from its ATH at $2708 early Thursday into early Tuesday and then spiked higher in a B-Wave that tested $2700 before the Iranian ballistic missile attack- 

Stocks – The SPX made a new ATH at 5767 early Thursday but then started a 3-wave correction that could extend into Thursday/Friday - the NFP jobs report on Friday could give us a reversal higher. We will issue a SELL SIGNAL if our TRIN-5 goes overbought at 4.00.

Gold – Gold gave us a B-Wave test at $2700 before the Iranian missile launch and is now coiling on the hourly chart - we could see a reversal higher after the NFP jobs report. 

Silver –  Silver gave us a 3-wave rally into Wednesday and appears to be coiling on its hourly chart

Bonds – Bonds tested 123'16 early Thursday on stronger economic number. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $74 early Thursday and XOM is flying.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 102 early Thursday and the PMs are holding up.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 10/1-10/3, the New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - October 2, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Overall, bias is that the SPX is making an EW a-b-c correction from the early 9/26 high into the 10/2-10/4 New Moon Timing Window and should resolve higher after the NFP jobs report early Friday. However, both the SPX and gold are up 30% this year and and instead of pushing on this already extended trades, we prefer to take trades on the FXI (Chinese stocks) which we favored early in the year. With the new Chinese stimulus plan, we think that FXI will trend higher as the US continues to make a "large broadening top formation". According, we are looking to add swing trades if the FXI pulls back to 32(a previous 4th wave low) and will look to take first profits at 40. Our bias is that the 3-wave correction in the SPX will end by Thursday/Friday.  The new ATHs in the SPX, DJIA, and NYSE composite post-Fed rate cut last week argue that the 2007 year analog stock market model is working for this Fall and that higher highs in the SPX are possible into October 11-15. However, if the TRIN-5 tests 4.00 (overbought), we will issue a SELL signal on the SPX and turn defensive. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

10/02/24 (Commentary for Wednesday)  The US markets have broadly shaken off the Iranian missile attack against Israel as minimal damage occurred. The SPX is giving us just a 3-wave correction from early on 9/26 into Thursday/Friday this week and we expect a reversal higher after the NFP jobs report. The QQQ appears to be declining in 3-waves into the 10/2 New Moon/Solar Eclipse and could undercut 477 into Thursday/Friday. After 30% gains in both the SPX and gold this year, we are more interested in buying dips in the FXI (Chinese stocks) if we get a dip to 32. The year 2007 SPX analog model appears to be working here and allows for a new SPX ATH into October 11 above 5767 - however, if our TRIN-5 model tests 4.00(overbought), we will issue a SELL SIGNAL for the SPX. Our bias allows for the possibility of some indices making a new ATH into October and the IWM could play catch up here. Gold is coiling on the hourly chart as we approach Friday's NFP jobs report and we expect another test of $2007 soon.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a new ATH at 5767 early Thursday and is now giving us a 3-wave correction into the 10/2-19/4 New Moon/Solar Eclipse timing window before it reverses higher to a new ATH into 10/11-10/15. The year 2007 SPX analog model made higher SPX highs into 10/11.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold gave us a 3-wave correction from its ATH at $2708 early Thursday into early Tuesday and then spiked higher in a B-Wave that tested $2700 before the Iranian ballistic missile attack- 

Stocks – The SPX made a new ATH at 5767 early Thursday but then started a 3-wave correction that could extend into Thursday/Friday - the NFP jobs report on Friday could give us a reversal higher. We will issue a SELL SIGNAL if our TRIN-5 goes overbought at 4.00.

Gold – Gold gave us a B-Wave test at $2700 before the Iranian missile launch and is now coiling on the hourly chart - we could see a reversal higher after the NFP jobs report. 

Silver –  Silver gave us a 3-wave rally into Wednesday and appears to be coiling on its hourly chart

Bonds – Bonds tested 123'16 early Thursday on stronger economic number. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $74 early Thursday and XOM is flying.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 102 early Thursday and the PMs are holding up.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 10/1-10/3, the New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - October 1, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Our bias is that the SPX is making an EW a-b-c correction from the early Thursday high into the 10/1-10/3 New Moon Timing Window. We may have entered the C-Wave down on Tuesday which could give us an undercut low below 5681 on Wednesday. The low CBOE put/call ratio closes since Friday argue for more down into the 10/2 New Moon/Solar eclipse. Still,  the new ATHs in the SPX, DJIA, and NYSE composite post-Fed rate cut last week argue that the 2007 year analog stock market model is working for this Fall and that higher highs in the SPX are possible into October 11-15. However, if the TRIN-5 tests 4.00 (overbought), we will issue a SELL signal on the SPX and turn defensive. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

10/01/24 (Commentary for Tuesday)  Geopolitical fears drove global markets down early Tuesday and gold prices spiked to test $2700 before the Iranian missiles launched against Israel. The QQQ appears to be declining in 3-waves into the 10/2 New Moon/Solar Eclipse and could undercut 477 into Wednesday/Thursday. The year 2007 SPX analog model appears to be working here and allows for a new SPX ATH into October 11 above 5767 - however, if our TRIN-5 model tests 4.00(overbought), we will issue a SELL SIGNAL for the SPX. Our bias allows for the possibility of some indices making a new ATH into October and the IWM could play catch up here. Gold gave us a B-Wave test of $2700 early Tuesday and should give us a C-Wave down into the 10/2-10/3 New Moon/Solar eclipse.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a new ATH at 5767 early Thursday and is now giving us a 3-wave correction into the 10/2-19/3 New Moon/Solar Eclipse before it reverses higher to a new ATH into 10/11-10/15. The year 2007 SPX analog model made higher SPX highs into 10/11.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold gave us a 3-wave correction from its ATH at $2708 early Thursday into early Tuesday and then spiked higher in a B-Wave that tested $2700 before the Iranian ballistic missile attack- We should now see a C-Wave down into the 10/2-10/3 New Moon/solar eclipse that undercuts $2645. We have a target of $2735 for gold into October.

Stocks – The SPX made a new ATH at 5767 early Thursday but then started a 3-wave correction that could extend into the 10/2-10/3 New Moon/solar eclipse and undercut 5650. Geo-political fears from Iran/Israel are pushed the SPX lower early Tuesday. The year 2007 SPX analog model argues for higher SPX highs into 10/11-10/15. We will issue a SELL SIGNAL if our TRIN-5 goes overbought at 4.00.

Gold – Gold gave us a B-Wave test at $2700 before the Iranian missile launch and is now giving us a C-Wave down that could undercut $2645 on 10/2-10/3. 

Silver –  Silver gave us just a corrective bounce to $32.14 early Tuesday on the Iranian missile attacks. A lower low below $31.18 is now possible on the 10/2-10/3 New Moon/solar eclipse

Bonds – Bonds are holding 125'02 Tuesday evening. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil is holding at $71 overnight Tuesday on geo-political fears.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding 101.25 overnight Tuesday on geo-political tensions.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 10/1-10/3, the New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 30, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Our view is that the SPX is making an EW a-b-c correction from the early Thursday high into the 10/1-10/3 New Moon Timing Window. However, the low CBOE put/call ratio closes on Friday and Monday argue for more down into the 10/1-10/3 New Moon Timing Window. Still,  the new ATHs in the SPX, DJIA, and NYSE composite post-Fed rate cut last week argue that the 2007 year analog stock market model is working for this Fall and that higher highs in the SPX are possible into October 11-15. However, if the TRIN-5 tests 4.00 (overbought), we will issue a SELL signal and turn defensive. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

9/30/24 (Commentary for Monday)  Geopolitical fears are driving global markets down early Tuesday and gold prices spiked to test $2700. The QQQ appears to be declining in 3-waves into the 10/1-10/3 New Moon Timing Window which implies that a higher high above 494 will be seen soon by mid-October. The SPX made a new ATH at 5767 early Thursday and the Chinese stocks(FXI) roared as David Tepper stepped in to "buy anything Chinese". The year 2007 SPX analog model appears to be working here and allows for a new SPX ATH into October 11 above 5767 - however, if our TRIN-5 model tests 4.00(overbought), we will issue a SELL SIGNAL for the SPX. Our bias allows for the possibility of some indices making a new ATH into October and the IWM could play catch up here. Gold made a new ATH at $2708 pre-market 9/26 and appears to be doing a 3-wave correction into the 10/1-10/3 New Moon Timing window.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX finished a rising EW 5-waves up from 5402 and made a new ATH at 5767 early Thursday - just a 3-wave correction into the 10/2 New Moon could lead to a higher high into 10/11. The year 2007 SPX analog model made higher SPX highs into 10/11.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold made a new ATH at $2708.6 early Thursday and started a correction - into the 10/1-10/3 New moon Timing Window. We have a target of $2735 for gold into October.

Stocks – The SPX made a new ATH at 5767 early Thursday but then started a 3-wave correction that could extend into the 10/1-10/3 New Moon Timing Window. Geo-political fears from Iran/Israel are pushing the SPX lower early Tuesday. The year 2007 SPX analog model argues for higher SPX highs into 10/11. We will issue a SELL SIGNAL if our TRIN-5 goes overbought at 4.00.

Gold – Gold made a new ATH at $2708.6 pre-market Thursday and may be doing an EW 3- wave correction into the 10/2 New Moon. Gold bounced and tested $2700 early Tuesday on Iranian missile attacks on Israel. 

Silver –  Silver made a new yearly high at $33.02 pre-market Thursday and also started a correction into 10/1-10/2. Silver gave us just a corrective bounce early Tuesday on Iranian missile attacks on Israel.

Bonds – Bonds are holding 124'29 Sunday evening. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil is spiking to $72 early Tuesday on geo-political fears.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 101.40 on Tuesday on geo-political tensions.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 10/1-10/3, the New Moon Timing Window.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - September 29, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX made an ATH at 5767 early Thursday and started a correction that could run into early Monday. However, the CBOE put/call ratio closed low again at 0.76 and the $TRIN closed at 0.77 which argues for caution here. Still,  the new ATHs in the SPX, DJIA, and NYSE composite post-Fed rate cut last week argue that the 2007 year analog stock market model is working for this Fall and that higher highs in the SPX are possible into October 11-15 before a reversal down. However, if the TRIN-5 tests 4.00 (overbought), we will issue a SELL signal and turn defensive. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

9/29/24 (Commentary for Sunday)  Micron earnings powered up AI plays on Thursday and the QQQ filled its July gap before declining into the weekend. The QQQ appears to be declining in 3-waves into the 10/1-10/3 New Moon Timing Window which implies that a higher high above 494 will be seen soon. The SPX made a new ATH at 5767 early Thursday and the Chinese stocks(FXI) roared as David Tepper stepped in to "buy anything Chinese". The year 2007 SPX analog model appears to be working here and allows for a new SPX ATH into October 11 above 5767 - however, if our TRIN-5 model tests 4.00(overbought), we will issue a SELL SIGNAL for the SPX. Our bias allows for the possibility of some indices making a new ATH into October and the IWM could play catch up here. Gold made a new ATH at $2708 pre-market Thursday and appears to be doing a 3-wave correction into the 10/1-10/3 New Moon Timing window.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX finished a rising EW 5-waves up from 5402 and made a new ATH at 5767 early Thursday - just a 3-wave correction into the 10/2 New Moon could lead to a higher high into 10/11. The year 2007 SPX analog model made higher SPX highs into 10/11.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold made a new ATH at $2708.6 early Thursday and started a correction - into the 10/1-10/3 New moon Timing Window. We have a target of $2735 for gold into October.

Stocks – The SPX made a new ATH at 5767 early Thursday but then started a 3-wave correction that could extend into the 10/1-10/3 New Moon Timing Window. The year 2007 SPX analog model argues for higher highs into 10/11. We will issue a SELL SIGNAL if our TRIN-5 goes overbought at 4.00.

Gold – Gold made a new ATH at $2708.6 pre-market Thursday and is doing an EW 3- wave correction into the 10/2 New Moon.

Silver –  Silver made a new yearly high at $33.02 pre-market Thursday and also started a correction into 10/1-10/2.

Bonds – Bonds are holding 124'29 Sunday evening. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $68.34 Sunday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 100.20 Sunday evening which shoes that the trend remains down.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 10/1-10/3, the New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 26, 2024, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Micron earnings that confirmed an ongoing AI bubble boosted both the US and Chinese markets today and the SPX made another new ATH at SPX 5767. However, the CBOE put/call ratio closed low again at 0.77 and the $TRIN closed at 0.81 which argues for caution here. Still,  the new ATHs in the SPX, DJIA, and NYSE composite post-Fed rate cut last week argue that the 2007 year analog stock market model is working for this Fall and that higher highs in the SPX are possible into October 11-15 before a reversal down. However, if the TRIN-5 tests 4.00 (overbought), we will issue a SELL signal and turn defensive. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

9/26/24 (Commentary for Thursday)  Micron earnings powered up AI plays on Thursday and the QQQ filled its July gap. The SPX made a new ATH at 5767 and the Chinese stocks(FXI) roared as David Tepper stepped in to "buy anything Chinese". The year 2007 SPX analog model appears to be working here and allows for a new SPX ATH into October above 5767 - however, if our TRIN-5 model tests 4.00(overbought), we will issue a SELL SIGNAL for the SPX. Our bias allows for the possibility of some indices making a new ATH into October and the IWM could play catch up here. Gold made a new ATH at $2708 pre-market Thursday and we have a target price at $2735.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX finished a rising EW 5-waves up from 5402 and made a new ATH at 5767 early Thursday. Strong Micron earnings after the market on 9/5 reconfirmed the AI bubble and the QQQ filled in its July gap. The year 2007 SPX analog model made higher SPX highs into 10/11.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold made a new ATH at $2708.6 early Thursday and started a correction - we have a near-term target of $2735. Gold could make a new ATH going into Monday.

Stocks – The SPX made a new ATH at 5767 on Thursday and finished up a wedgy-looking 5-waves higher. The year 2007 SPX analog model argues for higher highs into 10/11. We will issue a SELL SIGNAL if our TRIN-5 goes overbought at 4.00.

Gold – Gold made a new ATH at $2708.6 pre-market Thursday and started a correction - we have a near-term target of $2735.

Silver –  Silver made a new yearly high at $33.02 pre-market Thursday and started a correction.

Bonds – Bonds are testing 124'21 after a benign PCE inflation report. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $67.98 early Friday.

Dollar Index – The USD closed below 100.50 again which shoes that the trend remains down.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 9/23-9/24.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 25, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: After making another ATH at 5741, the SPX corrected into mid-day as Mars conjuncted with the Moon. Overnight, however, the ES and FXI are rallying hard despite the stronger USD and we may see a gap up open early Thursday on the SPX. After a correction early Wednesday, the ES is rebounding overnight to a new ATH. The SPX appears to be tracking the year 2007 SPX analog which rallied into 10/11. The new ATHs in the SPX, DJIA, and NYSE composite post-Fed rate cut last week argue that the 2007 year analog stock market model appears to be working and that higher highs in the SPX are possible into October 11-15 before a reversal down . Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

9/25/24 (Commentary for Wednesday)  Micron earnings post-market Wednesday are rallying the NQ and ES futures overnight. The SPX looks to make a gap-up open on Thursday. The year 2007 SPX analog model appears to be working here and allows for a new SPX ATH into October above 5733. Our bias allows for the possibility of some indices making a new ATH into October and the IWM could play catch up here. Gold is making a new ATH at $2708 pre-market Thursday.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  After the 50 bps Fed rate cut, the SPX finished an EW 5-waves up from the 9/6 low and made a new ATH at 5736 on Tuesday. Strong Micron earnings after the market on 9/5 is reconfirming the AI bubble  The year 2007 SPX analog model made higher SPX highs into 10/11.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold is spiking to a new ATH at $2694.6 overnight Tuesday - we continue to sub-divide higher after the Fed rate cut. 

Stocks – The SPX looks to make a gap-up open early Thursday above 5733. The year 2007 SPX analog model argues for higher highs into 10/11.

Gold – Gold made a new ATH at $2708.6 pre-market Thursday.

Silver –  Silver made a new yearly high at $33.02 pre-market Thursday.

Bonds – Bonds are testing 123'23 early Thursday. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $67 early Thursday.

Dollar Index – The USD closed above 100.50 which is positive for the short-term trend.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 9/23-9/24.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 24, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX tested the ATH from 9/19 but on much lighter volume and that argues for a move back down to test 5400. The Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turn window in our work and we may have seen a high. On the bullish side, the USD closed below 100.5 and that argues for lower lows which could actually boost the SPX and precious metals. The SPX appears to be tracking the year 2007 SPX analog which rallied into 10/11. The new ATHs in the SPX, DJIA, and NYSE composite post-Fed rate cut last week argue that the 2007 year analog stock market model appears to be working and that higher highs in the SPX are possible into October before a reversal down . Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

9/24/24 (Commentary for Tuesday)  The SPX made 5-waves up from 9/6 into 5736 and tested the ATH on much smaller volume which is a caution for a correction back to 5400 in the next month. On the other hand, the USD closed below 100.5 which argues for more blow off into the SPX and PM sectors. The Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turn window in our work and we could be marking a high this week. The year 2007 SPX analog model appears to be working here and allows for a possible new SPX ATH into October above 5733. Our bias allows for the possibility of some indices making a new ATH into October and the IWM could play catch up here. Gold is making a new ATH at $2695.6 overnight Tuesday.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  After the 50 bps Fed rate cut, the SPX finished an EW 5-waves up from the 9/6 low and made a new ATH at 5736 on Tuesday. Just a corrective pullback into Wednesday/Thursday would argue for a higher high above 5736 going into October.  The year 2007 SPX analog model made higher highs into 10/11.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold is spiking to a new ATH at $2694.6 overnight Tuesday - we continue to sub-divide higher after the Fed rate cut. 

Stocks – The SPX made a marginal new ATH at 5736 on much smaller volume - this is bearish for a retest of 5400 in the next month. On the other hand the USD closed below 100.5 which is short-term bullish for the SPx. 

Gold – Gold is made a new ATH at $2694.6 overnight Tuesday.

Silver –  Silver tested its high for the year at $32.61 overnight Tuesday before correcting.

Bonds – Bonds are testing 124'14 early Wednesday. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $70.74 early Wednesday.

Dollar Index – The USD closed below major support at 100.50 and continues lower.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 9/23-9/24.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 23, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX appear to be doing a sideways EW a-b-c correction into the 9/23-9/24 turn window but the IWM had more of a zig-zag correction from Thursday into Monday.  Our bias is for another SPX and NDX leg down into Tuesday before a reversal higher. The SPX appears to be tracking the year 2007 SPX analog which rallied into 10/11. The new ATHs in the SPX, DJIA, and NYSE composite post-Fed rate cut last week argue that the 2007 year analog stock market model is in play and that higher highs are possible into October before a reversal down . Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

9/23/24 (Commentary for Monday)  The SPX appears to have finished 5-waves up from 9/6 into 5733.57 and started an EW a-b-c correction into Friday which could end by Tuesday. The Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turn window in our work and it could mark the SPX low of this week. The SPX also rallied up in an EW 5-waves from its 8/5 low and made a new ATH at 5733 in last week's 9/16-9/19 Full Moon Timing Window. The year 2007 SPX analog model appears to be working here and allows for a possible new SPX ATH into October above 5733. Our bias allows for the possibility of some indices making a new ATH into October and the IWM could play catch up here. Gold is making a new ATH at $2664.6 overnight Monday.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  After the 50 bps Fed rate cut, the SPX finished an EW 5-waves up from the 9/6 low and made a new ATH at 5733.57 before pulling back into Friday and bouncing into Monday. Just a corrective pullback into the 9/23-9/24 turn window would argue for a higher high above 5733 going into October.  The year 2007 SPX analog model made higher highs into 10/11.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold is spiking to a new ATH at $2664.6 overnight Monday - we are completing a 5-wave rally from 9/11. 

Stocks – The E-mini appears to be coiling into the 9/23-9/24 turn window. 

Gold – Gold is making a new ATH at $2664.6 overnight Monday.

Silver –  Silver tested $31.48 overnight Monday before correcting.

Bonds – Bonds are holding 124'23 overnight Monday. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $71.23 overnight Monday.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 101 overnight Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 9/23-9/24.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - September 22, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us 5-waves up from 9/6 which peaked at 5733.57 on Thursday after the Fed rate cut. The SPX then pulled pack into Friday and bounced correctively. Our bias is for another leg down into the 9/23-9/24 turn window before a reversal higher. The SPX appears to be tracing out the year 2007 SPX analog which rallied into 10/11. The new ATHs in the SPX, DJIA, and NYSE composite post-Fed rate cut last week argue that the 2007 year analog stock market model is in play and that higher highs are possible into October before a reversal down . Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

9/22/24 (Commentary for Sunday)  The SPX appears to have finished 5-waves up from 9/6 into 5733.57 and started an EW a-b-c correction into Friday which could end in the 9/23-9/24 turn window. The Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turn window in our work and it could mark the SPX low of the coming week. The SPX also rallied up in an EW 5-waves from its 8/5 low and made a new ATH at 5733 in last week's 9/16-9/19 Full Moon Timing Window. The year 2007 SPX analog model appears to be working here and allows for a possible new SPX ATH into October above 5733. Our bias allows for the possibility of some indices making a new ATH into October and the IWM could play catch up here. Gold is making a new ATH at $2654 overnight Sunday.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  After the 50 bps Fed rate cut, the SPX finished an EW 5-waves up from the 9/6 low and made a new ATH at 5733.57 before pulling back into Friday. Just a corrective pullback into the 9/23-9/24 turn window would argue for a higher high above 5733 going into October.  The year 2007 SPX analog model made higher highs into 10/11.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold is spiking to a new ATH at $2654 overnight Sunday - we are completing a 5-wave rally from 9/11. 

Stocks – The E-mini may be just pulling back in an EW a-b-c correction into 9/23-9/24. 

Gold – Gold is making a new ATH at $2654 overnight Sunday.

Silver –  Silver is holding at $31.28 overnight Sunday.

Bonds – Bonds are holding 124'24 overnight Sunday. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $71.51 overnight Sunday.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding 100.8 overnight Sunday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 9/23-9/24.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 19, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Global markets rallied on the Fed 50 bps rate cut and the US markets followed through higher on the second day and continued to make new ATHs in the DJIA, SPX and the NYSE. However, the astronomical backdrop of the Full Moon/lunar eclipse gives us a cautionary note. The Full moon/lunar eclipse was conjuncted by Neptune with Saturn in close proximity and the astrological description of this aspect is "delusional". The 100 point rally in the SPX looks almost too good to believe in our view and WE DO NOT BELIEVE IN CHASING THIS RALEIGH. Our bias is that the SPX has finished or is close to finishing an EW 5-waves up from 8/5 and made a new ATH that is seeing divergence on momentum oscillators. The VIX partially filled its gap below 16.5 and this gauge could be close to an important low. The Tuesday after a monthly expiration, 9/24, could see a reversal back down if we are making an important high in the SPX by Friday. The new ATHs in the SPX, DJIA, and NYSE composite post-Fed rate cut today argue that the 2007 year analog stock market model is in play and that higher highs are possible into October before a reversal down . Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

9/19/24 (Commentary for Thursday)  Global equities rallied hard on the 50 bps Fed rate cut and the SPX followed through on Thursday with a nearly 100 point gain, BUT WE DO NOT BELIEVE IN CHASING THIS RALLY. The astrological context of the Full Moon/lunar eclipse and the divergences that we are seeing in several indicators are keeping us cautious. It's a good time to raise your trading stops and protect your profits after the extended rally from 9/11. The SPX rallied up in an EW 5-waves from its 8/5 low and made a new ATH at 5733 in today's 9/16-9/19 Full Moon Timing Window but the NDX is still lagging. The year 2007 SPX analog model appears to be working here and allows for a possible new SPX ATH into October but we are SEEING CAUTIOUS FLAGS here. Our bias allowed for the possibility of some indices making a new ATH into October, but how the SPX trades through quad witching into 9/24 is key.  The Presidential election year and the year SPX 2007 analog model still argues for the possibility of a new ATH in several induces going into October but an important high in the SPX could be made in the short term. Gold is spiking to a new ATH at $2632 overnight Thursday.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  After reversing up after its 34-day Fibonacci step out from 8/5 on 9/6-9/9, the SPX joined the DJIA, SPXEW and NYSE in making new ATHs for the year but the stock market is looking toppy going into quad witching. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold spiked to $2632 overnight Thursday - we are completing a 5-wave rally from 9/11. A correction into 9/24 is possible.

Stocks – The E-mini made a 5-wave pattern completion from 9/11 to pre-market Thursday - a correction into the weekend is likely. 

Gold – Gold made a new ATH at $2632 overnight Thursday - looking now for a correction into 9/24.

Silver –  Silver made a higher high at $31.76 pre-market Friday - we could now correct into 9/24.

Bonds – Bonds are testing 124'18 again early Friday. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil is holding at $70.81 early Friday.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 100.4 overnight Thursday and is rebounding.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 9/16-9/18.