Folks,
Market Observations for the Week: The SPX sold off hard Wednesday after the SPX gave us an inside-day Doji candle and our TRIN-5 indicator gave us its first "overbought" SELL SIGNAL (< 4.0) since mid-March. The market seemed to sell off harder after Chairman Powell's comments which remained resolute in fighting inflation. The Fibonacci 55-day step out from the SPX ATH on 2/19 appears to have inverted and landed on 4/15 as a high. Our short-term bias is now for a SPX low in the 4/17-4/21 turn window around 5200. Gold is surging higher overnight Wednesday making a new ATH at $3377.2 and the GDX is also spiking to 53.06 in overnight trading. We will be watching the SPX, TLT, or GDX for possible trade setups this week but will be patient. Our current investment positions positions remain 30% cash, 25% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated Friday to 75% cash, 25% SLV, 0% GLD, and 0% GDX.
TURNING POINT DAY
We have a turn window for this week from 4/14-4/17.
Folks,
Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us an inside-day Doji candle and our TRIN-5 indicator gave us its first "overbought" SELL SIGNAL (< 4.0) since mid-March. The Fibonacci 55-day step out from the SPX ATH on 2/19 lands on 4/16 and this could could be an important high instead of a low. Our short-term bias is now for a SPX high near 4/16 (maybe today) followed by pullback into the 4/17-4/21 turn window. Gold is surging higher overnight Tuesday making a new ATH at $3311.7 and the GDX is also spiking to 53.06 in overnight trading. We will be watching the SPX, TLT, or GDX for possible trade setups this week but will be patient. Our current investment positions positions remain 30% cash, 25% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated Friday to 75% cash, 25% SLV, 0% GLD, and 0% GDX.
4/15/25 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX gave us an inside-day Doji and could be close to a turn down. Our TRIN-5 indicator gave us its first "overbought" SELL SIGNAL (< 4.0) since mid-March. The Fibonacci 55-day step out from the 2/19 high lands tomorrow and looks to come in as a high - we also have a 3-star critical reversal day for the SPX on 4/14-4/15. Bonds are still not trading that well and could see more volatility to trip up stocks this week. Gold is making a new ATH at $3311.7 overnight Tuesday and is also peaking into a 3-star critical reversal turn window on 4/14-4/15.
Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) Will the Fibonacci 55-day step out into 4/16 peak the SPX rally? A 3-star critical reversal turn window is coming in on 4/14-4/15.
Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold is making a new ATH at $3311.7 into the 4/14-4/15 3-star critical reversal day.
Stocks – Our TRIN-5 SELL SIGNAL from Tuesday's close has us looking for a short-term high by early Wednesday.
Gold - Gold is making a new ATH at $3311.7 going into its 4/14-4/15 3-star critical reversal day.
Silver – Silver is testing $32.71 overnight Tuesday.
Bonds – Bonds continue looking technically weak and could push lower soon which would raise rates..
Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $60.86 overnight Tuesday.
Dollar Index – The USD is falling to 99.43 overnight Tuesday and is boosting gold.
TURNING POINT DAY
We have a turn window for this week from 4/14-4/17.