All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer – October 28, 2019

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX joined the NDX at new all-time highs and the indices look like they could hold up into Fed rate cut decision. The SPX is now up against a multi-year uptrend line that has turned previous advances down. We expect the Fed to cut a quarter point but also to issue a harsh statement of being on hold. The huge QE4 operation has already expanded the Fed balance sheet in a massive manner since September ($200B/month) and this is already an "effective rate cut".

10/28/19 (Commentary for Monday) Global stock markets rolled higher into the New Moon today and the SPX joined the NDX at new all-time highs. How the SPX trades after the Fed rate cut action on Wednesday will set the tone into Friday's NFP jobs report. A weaker than expected NFP jobs report could resuscitate recession fears once again. We believe that the SPX will be much higher by May 2020, but the next two months could see a correction. The 10/28-10/30 turn window which includes the 10/28 New Moon, the 10/29 Fibonacci step out for gold and the 10/30 Fed rate cut decision should bring volatility in several markets. The risk here is that Vice-President Pence's critical speech last week against China could backfire as the Chinese try to finalize the mini-deal on trade – does President Trump really want a trade deal here? Gold gave us a stiff EW a-b-c correction from the early Friday high into today's New Moon and the 55-day Fibonacci step out tomorrow – we could see a reversal higher by Wednesday. Silver stocks have led the PM sector higher which is bullish. Bonds fell to test 158 early Monday and could go lower into Tuesday. The USD continues to grind higher as bond yields grind higher and the Brexit news turns negative.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made it to 3044 and closed strong – a run to 3060 is possible going into the Fed meeting.
• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested $1522 resistance early Friday and gave us a stiff correction below 1500 – how gold trades after the Fed rate decision Wednesday afternoon is key for the short-term trend.

   

• Stocks – The SPX got to 3044 on Monday but is now up against an uptrend line that has turned back several rally attempts since 2018.
• Gold – Gold tested $1521 resistance on Friday and pulled back into Monday's New Moon – the 55-day Fibonacci step out from 9/4 tomorrow could end gold's consolidation and reverse us higher by Wednesday.
• Silver – Silver stocks (SIL) rallied in 5-waves up on the hourly chart and reversed down correctively – this is a bullish signal for silver. The SLV/GLD ratio is also rallying and argues that a big move higher is near.
• Bonds – Bonds tested 158 early Monday and could go lower on Tuesday and global rates inch higher.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $57 on today's New Moon and sold off.
• Dollar Index – The USD is getting a weak corrective bounce on the bad news on Brexit as we approach the Fed rate cut decision.

TURNING POINT DAY

     

The turn window for this week is 10/28-10/30.

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer – October 6, 2019

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The NFP jobs report came in at +130,000 and was enough to spark the market higher along which supportive comments from Fed Chairman Powell. The SPX may have finished an EW a-b-c decline into Thursday, and we may be rallying to test 3020 again, but how we trade into Tuesday will set the tone for the week – a break above SPX 2960 would be bullish. This week news from the Chinese-US trade talks will be an important driver.

10/06/19 (Commentary for Sunday) The NFP jobs report above 130,000 was enough to spark a rally on Friday and it is possible that the SPX ended a correction from 7/26 to 10/3. How we trade through Tuesday will set the tone for the week as news from the China-US trade talks will be a catalyst. A move above SPX 2960 will be bullish for a possible retest of 3020 and we are waiting for that signal – just a small pullback into Wednesday will be bullish. We are being patient here and waiting for the tape to tell us. Gold made a weekly close above $1500 which is bullish as we approach the 34-day Fibonacci step out on 10/8 – gold is showing relative strength against the SPX as we enter Monday which is constructive. Despite top callers in recent weeks, bonds continue to rally to 165'07 early Monday – TLT has been a solid investment since early Tuesday when bonds completed an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly chart. We were looking for major trend changes in the SPX and gold going into the first week of October and we may have seen them.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX may have finished an EW a-b-c correction from 7/26 to 10/3 – a rally above SPX 2960 on Monday would imply a rally to test 3020.
• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The 34-day Fibonacci step out for gold from the 9/4 high points to 10/8 as a potential end to the consolidation period.

   

• Stocks – The SPX could have finished an important low on Thursday and we may be reversing up to test SPX 3020 again – how we trade into Tuesday will be key.
• Gold – Gold tested $1465(close to a symmetry decline) and closed higher above $1500 on Friday. Gold stocks are firming up bullishly.
• Silver – Silver reversed higher above $17.00 and is sub-dividing up impulsively.
• Bonds – Bonds finished its EW a-b-c correction on the hourly chart on Tuesday and is testing 165'07 early Monday.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil may be reversing down from early Friday.
• Dollar Index – The USD may have given us 5-waves down on the hourly chart with just a sideways correction into early Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

     

The turn window for this week is 10/8.