All Star Market Timing

The Weekly JDV Market Timing – August 9, 2020

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The NFP came in better than expected but the NDX peaked early in the session and some key tech stocks rolled over as money flowed into the Russell 2000, bank, and other economic recovery stocks. Still, our 8/7-8/10 turn window may have started a short-term correction in the NDX and SPX. After 5-waves up on the SPX hourly chart, our option indicators are stretched to the euphoric side so we may see more volatility on Monday. Gold spiked to a new all-time high late Thursday at $2089.2 and started a 3-wave correction to $2026 into Friday's Comex close. The USD tested 93.6 on Friday and just pulled back correctively into Sunday – another leg higher is possible this week.

 

8/09/20 (Commentary for Sunday) The economic recovery stocks (oils, banks, and materials) gained steam late on Friday as the tech stocks rolled over – the IWM and the SPX both caught a bid. The SPX closed within 40 points of the all-time high at 3393 and clearly has broken out. We still like the oil stocks here (XOM, CVX, and COP) to rotate into a leadership position and help the SPX make a run to test the February high. However, the market is very overbought here and could show more volatility into the 8/10 turn window on Monday. Crude oil is coiling for another spike higher to test $42.50. The big-cap oils, XOM and CVX, appear to have made double bottoms on 7/31 and look to lead the SPX higher this week. Skepticism about this bull market has stocks climbing a wall of worry that has longer to go – maybe into September. Gold spiked to a new all-time high Thursday night at $2089.2 before a $60 pullback into Friday's Comex close. The close above $2000 this week captured headlines around the world and is bringing new money into the PM sector. The USD rallied in 5-waves and tested 93.6 on Friday before correcting into Sunday evening – we could see another leg higher this week.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX price action from the high of January 2018 to the low of March 2020 was a large Running B-Wave correction in Elliott Wave parlance – we are currently in a final 5^th wave higher that should end the bull market from March 2009 and reach 3500+. Both the IWM and the DJTA took out their June highs and that argues for the SPX to test the all-time high at 3393 soon.

 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold made a new all-time high at $2089.2 overnight Thursday and then started pulling back correctively. Still, we closed above $2000 this week and that event should make headlines around the world and bring fresh money into the sector. However, a strong USD retracement higher could kick the over-heated PM sector into a correction.

 

• Stocks –The SPX made it to a post-crash high at 3352.54 near Friday's close. Stretched option sentiment indicators argue that we could see more volatility on Monday. We still like the XLE (XOM, CVX and COP) for a catch-up rally this week and bank stocks could break higher as well.
• Gold – Gold spiked to a new all-time high overnight Thursday at 2089.2 and pulled back correctively into Friday's Comex close – gold is wildly overbought but the close above $2000 is bringing in new buyers.
• Silver – Silver tested $30 overnight Thursday before giving us a $1.70 correction into Friday – there is a large short interest in SLV that needs to be squeezed out. We have reduced our position size but are still staying long SLV calls on a rolling basis.
• Bonds – Bonds rallied to 183'06 Thursday but then declined in 5-waves down into Sunday evening – we are flat.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil is coiling for another test of $42.5 – CVX and XOM are rallying off a double bottom from 7/31.
• Dollar Index – The USD rallied in 5-waves from 92.5 early Thursday to 93.6 on Friday – the corrective pullback from Friday argues for another leg higher.

   

   

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 8/10.

The Daily JDV Market Timer – September 25, 2019

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX has seen some hard selling since the Fed rate cut but we got a bounce today after the release of a transcript from Trump's controversial phone call to the President of the Ukraine. The Democrats want to impeach, and this will add another layer of uncertainty to the stock market going forward that could undermine an eventual trade deal with the Chinese. We must be cautious here since the SPX may be sub-dividing down aggressively after the double top on 9/19. The SPX has been resilient to negative news recently, but that could be starting to change as we enter October. The July/September double top formation in the SPX and many important stocks may have led to a C-Wave down in the SPX that may gain steam going into October.

     

9/25/19 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX got extremely overbought last week and bullish sentiment in the SPY jumped from 30% to 48% on 9/20 – a 52-week high in the Whispernumber Confidence Report. We find it interesting that the SPX is setting up very much like it did in September/October 2018 where we got a scary Fall decline. On 10/3/2018 & 10/4/2018, the Option Premium Ratio (OPR) indicator gave us a back-to-back reading of .77 – a Major Sell Signal. This year, the OPR indicator has given us a back-to-back reading of .78 on 9/17/19 and 9/18/19 – another Major Sell Signal. Our research and database (inspired by the work of Chris Cadbury) has found that back-to-back values in the .70s have correlated with major tops in the SPX. Up to now, our market bias has been that the SPX could hold up until 10/1 – the 70^th anniversary of the communist takeover of the Chinese mainland but the 9/18-9/21 geo-cosmic turn window gave us a correction that could intensify into Friday's New Moon Timing Window – this could be another bearish sign. After an up open Tuesday, the market rolled over and declined below some large Dark Pool print levels for the SPY, QQQ and IWM – taking out the Wednesday morning lows, SPX 2953, going into Friday would be bearish. The July/September SPX double top formation has proved to be formidable and a C-Wave down to the August lows is a possibility. Our cycles argue for increasing volatility in several markets as we enter October and we are seeing that in gold and the SPX.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The 9/18-/21 geo-cosmic turn window turned the market down after the Fed rate cut and picked up steam on Tuesday – taking out SPX 2952 by Friday would be a bearish confirmation.
• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold stocks started leading the PM complex on Friday and the GDX may have started a 5^th wave higher on the daily chart. The 34-day Fibonacci step out from 9/4 high in old points to 10/8 as a potential end to the consolidation period but a sharp drop in the SPX before 10/8 would give gold a strong bid.
• Stocks – The market gave us a back-to-back reading of .78 on 9/17 & 9/18 – a Major Sell Signal in the SPX. The SPX may have started a C-Wave down on 9/19 – a sharp drop into Friday's New Moon would be a bearish confirmation.
• Gold – Gold sold off hard on Wednesday as volatility continues to increase – how gold stocks fare early Thursday will set the tone.
• Silver – Silver sold off hard on Wednesday and may need an undercut low going into Thursday
• Bonds – Bonds are tracing out an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly chart.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is trying to retrace to $55 – the price before the attack on the Saudi oil production facilities.
• Dollar Index – The USD started to break higher on Wednesday and is testing 99.

TURNING POINT DAY

     

The turn windows for this week are 9/24 and 9/27, the New Moon Timing Window.

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – September 9, 2019

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX got its consolidation and pulled back modestly on Monday. However, with the absence of errant tweets from Trump and China playing nice until their 70^th anniversary of the 1949 takeover on 10/1, global markets could catch their breath while the SPX could make new highs above 3027. Gold gave us a new high at $1566 as part of a "running B-Wave" corrective pattern but the C-Wave down is giving us an undercut of $1500 before a bounce until Friday's Full Moon.

     

9/09/19 (Commentary for Monday) After up days on Thursday and Friday the SPX closed with negative TICK readings both days which predicted the start of a consolidation on Monday. After 5-waves up into Thursday, the market is set up to give us a pullback to 2950 or so. Timely announcements on BREXIT, Hong Kong and US-China trade supported the SPX rally into Friday but some kind of retracement was due. Bond yields have been rising and led to a big move in bank stocks today. The "out of favor" oil sector also caught a bid today as both crude oil and natural gas staged impressive rallies. Gold made new highs to $1566 in a "running B-Wave" corrective pattern, but then came down in a C-Wave that is undercutting $1500 Monday night – we could see a retracement bounce start on Tuesday. The USD may have given us an EW a-b-c bounce into 98.43 early Monday that could lead us into the next leg down.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Chinese restraint on Hong Kong and playing nice on trade talks allowed the SPX to rally into Friday's NFP jobs report. We could see a consolidation early this week into the 9/13-9/14 Full Moon Timing Window before a push to all-time highs above 3027 into the second half of September.
• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested $1510.7 Friday to potentially finish a "running B-Wave" correction from 8/25 – a break below $1510, however, would argue for a larger move down.
• Stocks – We expect the SPX to consolidate early this week to 2950 or so before rallying above 3027 by next week.  With China playing nice on Hong Kong and US trade talks, the path of least resistance may take us to SPX 3100 by the end of September.
• Gold – Gold undercut $1510.7 Monday and went below $1500 Monday night - we could see a retracement bounce start on Tuesday.
• Silver – Silver is breaking below $18 early Tuesday but should catch a bounce soon.
• Bonds – Bond yields are backing up and giving bank stocks a boost.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil broke above $58 and is making multi-week highs - beaten down oil service stocks like SLB got a bounce today.
• Dollar Index – The USD gave us a corrective bounce into 99.43 early Monday and may be coiling for a move down.

     

TURNING POINT DAY

     

The turn window for this week is 9/13-9/14, the Full Moon Timing Window.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – September 5, 2019

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  China is playing nice on Hong Kong and nice on US-China trade talks, and this, in the absence of one of Trump's errant tweets, was enough to rally us higher into the NFP jobs report on Friday. The SPX has now given us 5-waves up on the hourly chart and we should see a pullback after Friday's NFP jobs report. The 10-day TRIN came in < .75 and that also argues for a consolidation. Gold gave us a new high at $1566 as part of a "running B-Wave" corrective pattern but the C-Wave down could give us an undercut of $1514 before the NFP report early Friday.

     

9/05/19 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX traced out a large zig-zag correction from 8/5 that took us to 2985 on Thursday in a potential pattern completion. After 5-waves up into Thursday, the market is set up to give us a pullback after the NFP jobs report. Timely announcements on BREXIT, Hong Kong and US-China trade have supported the SPX rally into the NFP jobs report but some kind of retracement is due. Bonds made highs for the move 8/25 at 167'15 and have been correcting sideways – we kicked into a C-Wave down Wednesday evening. Gold made new highs to $1566 in a "running B-Wave" corrective pattern, but then came down in a C-Wave that could undercut $1514 before the NFP jobs report on Friday. The USD tested 99.3 early Tuesday and then gave us 5-waves down on the hourly chart before a bounce.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Just a corrective SPX pullback from the 8/30 New Moon high argued for a leg higher above 2940 – Chinese restraint on Hong Kong and playing nice on trade talks is allowing the SPX to rally into Friday's NFP jobs report.
• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold needs to undercut $1514 to finish a "running B-Wave" correction from 8/25 – a break below $1500 would be short-term bearish.
• Stocks – The SPX gave us 5-waves up to test 2985 and should give us a post-NFP pullback.  
• Gold – Gold made a new high to $1566 in a "running B-Wave correction" but the C-Wave down could undercut $1514 before Friday's NFP jobs report.
• Silver – Silver tested $19.75 before pulling back with gold – weakness in CDE and PAAS on Wednesday gave us a hint that a correction was brewing.
• Bonds – Bonds hit 167'15 on 8/25 before correcting sideways into Wednesday – the E-mini rally overnight Wednesday kicked bonds into a C-Wave down.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil made 5-waves up to test $57.7 before correcting today.
• Dollar Index – The USD hit 99.33 early Tuesday and started a 5-wave pullback on the hourly chart.

     

TURNING POINT DAY

     

The turn windows for this week are 9/3 and 9/6.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – September 4, 2019

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX's pullback from Friday's New Moon looked corrective to us and that implied another leg up above 2940 for pattern completion – the E-mini futures are up big Wednesday night – China is playing nice on Hong Kong and nice on US-China trade talks, and this, in the absence of one of Trump's errant tweets, is enough to rally us higher into the NFP jobs report on Friday. Gold gave us a new high at $1566 as part of a "running B-Wave" corrective pattern – this is bullish.

     

9/04/19 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX is tracing out a large zig-zag correction from 8/5 that appears to need one more leg above 2940 - news from China on trade talks has the E-mini up 30 points Wednesday night. Just a corrective pullback from Friday's New Moon argued for one more leg higher above SPX 2940 for a pattern completion – China's playing nice with Hong Kong and US-China trade talks is allowing the US markets to rally higher into the NFP jobs report on Friday. Trump imposed the increased tariffs against Chinese goods on Sunday and global stock markets pulled lower into early Tuesday after the Labor Day holiday. Short-term cycles pointed to a high in the 8/29-8/30 New Moon turn window before a reversal down and we got that into Tuesday morning, but the pullback was "corrective" implying that we would quickly take out the New Moon high at 2940. Bonds made highs for the move 8/25 at 167'15 and have been correcting sideways – we may have kicked into a C-Wave down Wednesday evening. Gold made new highs to $1566 in a "running B-Wave" corrective pattern – this is bullish for higher highs shortly. The USD tested 99.3 early Tuesday and started a correction.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Just a corrective SPX pullback from the 8/30 New Moon high argued for a leg higher above 2940 – Chinese restraint on Hong Kong and playing nice on trade talks is allowing the SPX to rally into Friday's NFP jobs report.
• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold hit $1565 8/25 on the 55-day Fibonacci step out from 7/1 and is corrected into the Friday New Moon – we could see a reversal higher by Tuesday.
• Stocks – The SPX only pulled back correctively from Friday into early Tuesday – the SPX could bounce to 2960 early Thursday.  
• Gold – Gold made a new high to $1566 in a "running B-Wave correction" – this is bullish for higher highs shortly.
• Silver – Silver continues to melt up and looks to test $21, the 2016 high, by next week.
• Bonds – Bonds hit 167'15 on 8/25 before correcting sideways into Wednesday – the E-mini rally overnight is kicking bonds into a C-Wave down.
• Crude Oil – The seasonal trade set up nicely for natural gas and we are long UNG and BOIL.
• Dollar Index – The USD hit 99.33 early Tuesday and started a pullback that looks 5-waves down on the hourly chart.

     

TURNING POINT DAY

     

The turn windows for this week are 9/3 and 9/6.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly JCD Market Timer – September 2, 2019

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX tested SPX 2940 early Friday on the exact New Moon and then started a correction – how we trade early Tuesday will determine the trend for the week. Gold bottomed late Friday and then bounced – How we trade Tuesday will determine the trend for the week. Our bias is that the SPX made a yearly high on 7/26 and that we will correct into December and reach sub-2300.

     

9/02/19 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX traced out an upside zig-zag correction and reached our target of 2940 on Friday's early New Moon before rolling over. How we trade on Tuesday will determine the trend for the week in the SPX. Trump imposed the increased tariff against Chinese goods on Sunday and global stock markets pulled back Sunday night. Short-term cycles point to a high in the 8/29-8/30 New Moon turn window before a reversal down and we got that – a break below SPX 2850 will argue that the next leg down is in force. Bonds made highs for the move 8/25 at 167'15 and have been correcting sideways – higher highs could be seen by next week if the SPX reverses down on Tuesday. Gold made an EW a-b-c into late Friday and bounced higher – how we trade on Tuesday will set the trend for the week. The USD is surging to 99.3 early Tuesday – a new high for the year.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The strong move down on 8/23 confirmed the SPX high on 7/26 at 3027 as the seasonal high – the SPX reversed down at 2940 on Friday's New Moon, but it would take a break below 2850 to signal that the next leg down is in force.
• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold hit $1565 8/25 on the 55-day Fibonacci step out from 7/1 and is corrected into the Friday New Moon – we could see a reversal higher by Tuesday.
• Stocks – The SPX finished an upside zig-zag correction at 2940 early Friday and then reversed down – how we trade on Tuesday will set the trend for the week.  
• Gold – Gold rallied to a new rally high of $1565 8/25 on the 55-day Fibonacci step out and corrected into the New Moon late Friday – we could see a break higher by Tuesday.
• Silver – Silver pulled back in a quick EW a-b-c correction into the New Moon Timing Window – looking for a reversal higher on Tuesday.
• Bonds – Bonds hit 167'15 on 8/25 before correcting sideways into Friday - another higher high is possible this week if the SPX declines below 2850.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $57 before reversing down to $55.
• Dollar Index – The USD hit 99.33 early Tuesday – high for the year.

     

TURNING POINT DAY

     

The turn window for this week is 9/3.

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – August 20, 2019

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX pulled back today, but the FOMC minutes will decide the trend. If the SPX holds up through Friday, odds are we could retest yearly highs by the 8/30 New Moon.

   

8/20/19 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX pulled back today in the 8/19-8/20 turn window which is an important seasonal turn window in our work, but market reaction to the FOMC minutes tomorrow will set the short-term trend. We need to see a big reversal down by Friday or our bias will turn to a rally into the 8/30 New Moon. The SPX made a low into the 8/15 Full Moon and rallied into the 8/19-8/20 turn window – we did see the "ideal rollover" on the Tuesday after a monthly expiration, but with the Fed minutes on Wednesday and the Jackson Hole talk by Powell on Friday, the SPX could hold up into the end of the week. In our opinion, the Big Money has been selling this market since 7/26 and the very high 10-day TRIN numbers into 8/14 showed major distribution. The US bond market is showing one of the strongest rallies in memory as global capital flows to the US and more rally looks likely.  The increasing day-to-day volatility and the shrinking trading volume in the QQQ are a sign of a major top. Gold may have bottomed its correction on late Monday at $1503 and the GDX/GLD ratio spiked higher Tuesday with silver outperforming gold - we see an intensifying US-China trade war and the unrest in Hong Kong as keeping gold prices elevated in the short term. The USD tested 98.45 Tuesday and is bouncing into the Fed minutes.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Did we see the SPX high for the year on 7/26? A strong reversal down on Tuesday could make a strong statement.
• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested $1546 and then started a correction that may have bottomed late Monday – gold looks like it is tracing out a "bull flag" pattern.

   

• Stocks – The SPX rallied into our important turn window on 8/19-8/20 and gave us a reversal down on Tuesday – we need to see a strong reversal down this week to argue that 7/26 set the high for the year.
• Gold – Gold may have finished its correction late Monday at $1503 and the GDX/GLD did a sharp reversal higher on Tuesday - we could see higher highs this week after the FOMC minutes on Wednesday.
• Silver – Silver led gold on its reversal higher on Tuesday – a break higher after the FOMC minutes is likely.
• Bonds – Bonds tested 167 in a historic run but is only pulling back correctively – higher highs are likely soon.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil rallied in 5-waves on the hourly chart into 8/13 and only pulled back correctively into the Full Moon – more rally is expected into Wednesday.
• Dollar Index – The USD tested 98.45 Tuesday and is bouncing into the FOMC minutes.

   

TURNING POINT DAY

   

The turn window for this week is 8/19-8/20.

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – July 30, 2019

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:   Warning! Instead of roaring into the 7/31 New Moon/Fed rate cut day, the SPX has declined – still, one more leg up into the FOMC minutes is possible and could mark an important high. Crude oil is giving us a corrective bounce to test $58.50 into the New Moon. Gold is getting a B-Wave test of the $1454 7/19 high going into 7/31. We believe that GLD and GDX calls should be sold before the FOMC rate cut decision.

7/30/19 (Commentary for Tuesday) Our idea of a big SPX move into the 7/31 New Moon/Fed rate cut day hasn't panned out. Instead, we have seen a market decline into the New Moon Timing Window. Our bias is for one more rally attempt into the FOMC rate cut decision tomorrow at 2:00 PM EDT. The market indices are advancing despite weak breadth numbers which confirms our bias for new highs above SPX 3028 this week. After a possible early August correction, we still have our target of SPX 3100 by August/September – we DO expect the large sideways SPX consolidation pattern from January 2018 to be DECISIVELY taken out this summer before we roll over for a fall correction. Global markets are all about liquidity here and we have long predicted that the Fed will shift back to an easing stance (set to start on 7/31) - a crisis in the European banking system would evoke a quick easing or QE response from the US Fed. Crude oil is rallying into the 7/31 New Moon – we are seeing prices top $58.5 early Wednesday. Gold spiked to $1440 Monday evening – a close above $1431 was a buy signal in our work – our bias is for a B-Wave test of $1455 by the 7/31 New Moon and then a C-Wave pullback into Friday's NFP jobs report. The USD reached 98.20 early Tuesday and started a correction that is trending into 7/31.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - We are getting close to an important summer high by the 7/31 New Moon and Fed rate-cut day. Our target of SPX 3100 may not be in play until late August.
• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold may be giving us a B-Wave test of the 7/19 high at $1455 going into the 7/31 New Moon – we could then see a C-Wave pullback into Friday's NFP jobs report.

   

• Stocks – Our bias is for one more rally above SPX 3028 going into the 7/31 New Moon/Fed rate cut day.
• Gold – Gold spiked above $1437 late Sunday – then we closed Monday above $1431 which is a buy signal – our bias is for a B-Wave test of $1455 before the FOMC rate cut decision. The whisper number confidence report has GLD at 52-wk highs in bullish sentiment – this argues for more consolidation in gold after the 7/31 New Moon.
• Silver – We saw "big prints in SLV in the Dark Pool" last week – this means that silver is moving from "weak hands" to "strong hands" here and should accelerate its move up. A back test to $16.20 is underway. We favor the silver catch up trade over gold here.
• Bonds - Bonds tested 155'10 and may have ended an EW a-b-c upside correction – we got to 155'08 7/25 before reversing down hard.
• Dollar Index – The USD broke above 98.20 on Monday and started a consolidation into the 7/31 rate cut decision.

           

TURNING POINT DAY

   

The turn windows for this week are 7/31-8/01 – the New Moon/Fed rate cut day and 8/2, the NFP jobs report.