All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer – November 6, 2019

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: We got three different sentiment readings on the stock market on Tuesday that imply a significant top in the SPX is very close but a close above SPX 3080 would imply a quick move to 3100. Signs of extreme froth are present in the market, but the news on China-US trade may not measure up.

11/06/19 (Commentary for Wednesday) We have three sentiment indicators giving us "extreme greed readings" early this week this is a time for caution, and a time to let the market show us the way. Our bias is that a 3-5% SPX pullback may be at hand but a close above SPX 3080 would be bullish for a quick move to 3100. Today the SPY traded below Tuesday's range with greater volume giving us a Negative Volume Reversal. The SPX volatility model and the transition of mercury to retrograde motion on 10/31 suggest that we could see at least a 5% pullback start this week but a close above SPX 3080 would argue for a breakout instead. We believe that the SPX will be much higher by May 2020, but the next two months could see a correction. Gold and silver stocks are trying to lead the metals higher. The earnings from Barrick were well received and that sparked the GDX higher. The USD is doing a C-Wave bounce that could test 98.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – A close above SPX 3080 would argue for a breakout to our old summer target of 3100, but three sentiment indicators argue for a 3-5% SPX correction to start this week.
• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 10/1 low topped silver Monday and gave us a decline into Tuesday/Wednesday. Gold and silver stocks are trying to pull the metals higher which is bullish.

   

• Stocks – Our bias is that the SPX may have started a 3-5% correction here but a close above SPX 3080 would argue for a quick test of 3100.
• Gold – Barrick's earnings helped to galvanize the GDX higher today as the stocks tried to lead the yellow metal higher.
• Silver – CDE and HL are leading the silver stock index (SIL) higher and trying to pull up silver.
• Bonds – Bonds are pulling back as global rates grind higher.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $57.85 before a pullback – the XLE is correcting 5-waves up on the hourly chart.
• Dollar Index – The USD tested horizontal support at 97.13 and is bouncing to test $98.

TURNING POINT DAY

     

The turn windows for this week is 11/3.

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – November 5, 2019

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: We got three different sentiment readings on the stock market that imply a significant top in the SPX is very close – a high comparable to what we got on 9/21/18. Signs of extreme froth are present in the market.

11/05/19 (Commentary for Tuesday) Sentiment readings from three different sources indicate that an important SPX top could be close by: (1) The Whispernumber.com Confidence poll for stocks increased from 43% bullish on 10/18 to 63% bullish on 11/1, (2) The CNNMoney Fear and Greed indicator has flashed to 89% signifying extreme greed, and (3) The ISEE Call/Put ratio gave us an all-time high reading of 297 (extreme greed) reading Tuesday. Today the SPX got to 3085 before correcting into the close but we failed to close above 3080. The SPX volatility model and the transition of mercury to retrograde motion on 10/31 suggest that we could see at least a 5% pullback start this week but a back-to-back close above SPX 3080 would argue for a breakout instead. We believe that the SPX will be much higher by May 2020, but the next two months could see a correction. Gold and silver made early highs on Monday then sold off during Tuesday but with silver stocks holding up bullishly. The USD is doing a C-Wave bounce that could test 98.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Back-to-back closes above SPX 3080 would argue for a breakout to our old summer target of 3100, but three sentiment indicators argue for a 5% SPX correction to start this week.
• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 10/1 low topped silver Monday and gave us a decline into Tuesday/Wednesday. Gold and silver stocks must reverse up hard here to keep gold and silver from having a steep correction.

   

• Stocks – The SPX popped to 3085 at the open but started a correction that closed it below 3080. Three sentiment indicators that we follow are registering "extreme greed" so we may start a correction this week.
• Gold – Monday's 34-day Fibonacci step out gave us an early high and then a corrective pullback into Tuesday. Gold may give us an undercut low early Wednesday before bouncing.
• Silver – The SIL (silver stocks) may have finished an EW a-b-c correction into Tuesday.
• Bonds – Bonds pulled back in an EW a-b-c correction after Friday's NFP report that could end on Monday.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $57.5 before a pullback – the oil stocks are now making a nice run higher.
• Dollar Index – The USD tested horizontal support at 97.13 and is bouncing to test $98.

TURNING POINT DAY

     

The turn windows for this week is 11/3.

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – September 3, 2019

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX's pullback from Friday's New Moon looks corrective and that implies another leg up above 2940 – the E-mini futures are up Tuesday evening. The rally pattern from 8/5 looks like a large EW a-b-c affair that needs one more leg higher above 2940 for a pattern completion. Gold bottomed late Friday and then rallied to test $1558 late in the session – one more leg higher above $1565 is possible tomorrow.

     

9/03/19 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX is tracing out a large zig-zag correction from 8/5 that appears to need one more leg above 2940 before rolling over. Just a corrective pullback from Friday's New Moon argues for one more leg higher above SPX 2940 for a pattern completion. Trump imposed the increased tariffs against Chinese goods on Sunday and global stock markets pulled lower into early Tuesday after the Labor Day holiday. Short-term cycles pointed to a high in the 8/29-8/30 New Moon turn window before a reversal down and we got that – how we trade on Wednesday will determine the short-term trend. Bonds made highs for the move 8/25 at 167'15 and have been correcting sideways – higher highs could be seen this week if the SPX reverses down on Wednesday. Gold made an EW a-b-c into late Friday and bounced to test $1558 late Tuesday – we could see one more high above $1565 on Wednesday to finish a pattern completion. The USD tested 99.3 early Tuesday and started a correction.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The strong move down on 8/23 confirmed the SPX high on 7/26 at 3027 as the seasonal high – the SPX reversed down at 2940 on Friday's New Moon, but it would take a break below 2850 to signal that the next leg down is in force.
• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold hit $1565 8/25 on the 55-day Fibonacci step out from 7/1 and is corrected into the Friday New Moon – we could see a reversal higher by Tuesday.
• Stocks – The SPX only pulled back correctively from Friday – the SPX could bounce to 2930 early Wednesday before a reversal down.  
• Gold – Gold reversed up Tuesday after the New Moon on Friday and tested $1558 – we are looking for one more leg higher above $1565 on Wednesday.
• Silver – Silver continues to melt up and grind higher and looks to test $21, the 2016 high, by this week
• Bonds – Bonds hit 167'15 on 8/25 before correcting sideways into Tuesday - another higher high is possible this week if the SPX declines below 2850.
• Crude Oil – The seasonal trade set up nicely for natural gas and we are long UNG and BOIL
• Dollar Index – The USD hit 99.33 early Tuesday and started a pullback.

     

TURNING POINT DAY

     

The turn window for this week is 9/3.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily JDV Market Timer – July 24, 2019

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:   The NDX and SPX both closed at new record highs as financials and semiconductors lead the way higher. Crude oil tested $58 and then reversed down impulsively on more supply concerns from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Gold tested $1431 again and pulled back in a tight range day – gold appears to be triangulating on the hourly chart.

7/24/19 (Commentary for Wednesday) The 5^th wave up on the NDX and SPX took us to new all-time highs on the backs of the semi-conductors and financials. The SPX ended a wave 4 correction late Friday and started a wave 5 rally that could take us to higher highs into next week. The market indices are advancing despite weak breadth numbers which confirms our bias for new highs above SPX 3017 into next week. After a mid-July correction into 7/19, we still have our target of SPX 3100 by August/September – we DO expect the large sideways SPX consolidation pattern from January 2018 to be DECISIVELY taken out this summer before we roll over for a fall correction. Global markets are all about liquidity here and we have long predicted that the Fed will shift back to an easing stance(set to start on 7/31) - a crisis in the European banking system would evoke a quick easing or QE response from the US Fed. Crude oil tested $58 before falling impulsively after news that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait threaten to pump more oil in the near term. Gold bounced again to test $1431 before pulling back – we need to close above $1429 to get gold going higher. The USD continues to test 97.75 – a move above 98 looks in the cards.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The SPX ended a mild wave 4 on the daily chart late Friday. We are getting close to an important summer high by the 7/31 New Moon and Fed rate-cut day.
• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold undercut $1415 and may have finished an EW a-b-c correction – a daily close higher above $1429 would confirm this.

   

• Stocks – The SPX ended its correction late Friday and rallied to finish 5-waves up on the rally today – we took profit on out TQQQ calls.
• Gold – Gold needs to close above $1429 to pave the way for a move higher.
• Silver – We saw "big prints in SLV in the Dark Pool" last week – this means that silver is moving from "weak hands" to "strong hands" here and should accelerate its move up. We favor the silver catch up trade over gold here.
• Crude Oil - Crude oil rallied to test $58 and then reversed down impulsively – the trend may still be trending down.
• Bonds - Bonds appear ready to test 155'10.
• Dollar Index – The USD looks poised to exceed 98 on Thursday.

           

TURNING POINT DAY

   

The turn window for this week is 7/22-7/23.