All Star Market Timing

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - January 5, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX finished a minimal EW a-b-c correction from 12/6 into 1/2-and then bounced into Friday. Just a 3-wave bounce from Thursday into Monday will be bearish for more decline. A Zweig Breadth Thrust signal was triggered on 12/19 on a touch of 0.35 - Monday will finish ten trading days forward on 1/6 and the indicator must at least 0.60 to RECONFIRM THE BULL MARKET IN STOCKS - if it fails, the stock market will CONFIRM A POSSIBLE BEAR MARKET into 2025. Our fear gauges started moving aggressively higher today on Thursday and gave us a bounce on Friday, but how we trade on Monday will be key because 1/6 will be the 34-day step out from the 12/6 ATH and time is running out for the SPX to RECONFIM its bull market. At this juncture, we favor the GDX which gave us nice upside reversal action Thursday after the Moon ingressed into Aquarius early Wednesday which is often seen at lows for the PM sector. We our currently long the GDX and will continue to add to shares on corrective dips. Gold also had a nice reversal higher on Thursday and appears to be rallying in a B-Wave retest of the $2800 ATH. We reiterate our call for raising 50% cash going into January. The first year of the Presidential cycle argues for stock market volatility in 2025 and we could see multiple corrections of 15% in a volatile year as the new US administration settles into power. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going into 2025. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition.

1/03/25 (Commentary for Friday) The SPX gave us a "minimal EW a-b-c" correction into from the 12/6 high into Thursday, 1/2. How the rally from Thursday evolves into Monday is key - just a 3-wave price action would be bearish. Back-to-back prints of 0.77 into Thursday's close was short-term bullish, however, and Monday's tape will enlighten us. How the ZBT trades on Monday is also key - less than 0.60 on this indicator will be intermediate-term bearish. The SPXEW, DJIA and IWM have corrected hard in December and we need to respect this price action and market breadth deterioration. The Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) indicator triggered on 12/19 with a close below 0.35 and we will be monitoring this closely into Monday. If the ZBT makes a daily close above 0.60 on 1/6, this will be bullish for early 2025 ... if it can't, it will call for a bearish New Year for the US stock market. The big increase in "insider selling" for CEOs in the S&P 500 is a warning sign that an important stock market high (in a broadening top formation) may be behind us in the US stock market. Gold and silver may have made important lows in the 12/15-12/19 3-star critical reversal turn window and then made higher highs in the 1/2-1/3 turn window. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The TRIN-5 indicator printed 6.05 at the close on Friday and > 6.0 is oversold for the SPX- How the SPX trades on Monday is key to the short-term trend.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold and silver put in a short-term low going into the 1/2-1/3 turn window which correlated with the Moon in Aquarius.  Sentiment for gold and silver was very low going into late 2024 and that could lead to a significant rally in the PM sector in early 2025.

Stocks – The SPX may have ended a "minimal EW a-b-c decline" going into Thursday and the rally on Friday needs to be watched closely on Monday if it turns 3-wave corrective.

Gold - Gold and the GDX may have made a significant low on Thursday. The low DSI sentiment number for gold at 48 on 12/18 argues that a short-term low is being made into year end. We like NEM and GOLD for a post "tax-loss selling" bounce into January.

Silver –  The low DSI sentiment number for silver on 12/18 argued that an important low was made at $29.14 on 12/20 and retested on 12/31.

Bonds – Bonds are testing 113'01 Sunday evening and that is bearish.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $74.30 on Friday and looks bullish as the market tries to price in new Iranian sanctions under Trump 2.0.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 109.5 on Thursday, a multi-month high, and is pulling back to 108.65 Sunday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 1/6.

The Daily JDV Market Timer – December 2, 2019

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The E-mini and the DJIA futures made all-time highs overnight but then sold off quickly after the market open. If the SPX and NDX make undercut lows early Tuesday, we will have EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart and a sell signal for those indices. The VIX cycle bottomed on Friday and chances are it could be a steep rise with all the VIX shorting that transpired the past few weeks. IT IS TIME TO GET DEFENSIVE. The SPX needs a pullback to rebalance sentiment, but with the risks to the Phase 1 trade deal with China, and the weakening economic numbers there is potential for an important top here. How we trade early this week will be critical for several markets.

12/02/19 (Commentary for Monday) We think that the SPX and the NDX made important highs last week and the VIX made an important low. The stock market needs to rebalance sentiment and it might do a lot more than that. With the VIX cycle bottoming last Friday, the market appears to have started the 5-8% correction that we have discussed in recent weeks. It is time to get defensive and raise cash. The SPX is now 200 points higher than where it was in mid-October when Trump first announced a done deal with Phase 1 – a failure to finalize the deal this month could take us back quickly to SPX 2950. It appears that the Phase 1 China trade deal has already been factored into stocks thirty times or so and the SPY, NDX and IWM are stretched well above their 200-day MA lines – Chinese anger at Trump's signing of the Congressional statement of support for Hong Kong could jeopardize the Phase 1 trade deal. In the last few weeks, we have seen irrational exuberance grip stocks like AAPL, MSFT, and DIS and are still looking for a 5-8% SPX correction to re-balance sentiment into early December. We believe that the SPX will be higher by May 2020, but the next two weeks could give us a much-needed correction. Gold tested $1459 early Friday before reversing higher in a big-range day – the bullion banks broke gold down below $1460 and then loaded up on gold stocks – in our work, we need to see gold close above the 100-day MA around $1485 to get a buy signal. The USD is falling impulsively and could be leading the SPX down which could be bullish for the PM sector.

• Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made a new high into the 11/25-11/27 New Moon Timing Window last week. An EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart for the SPX would suggest that a short-term high was made last week.

    

• Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We may have seen an important swing low on the 11/12 Full Moon at gold $1446. We retested that low at $1453.9 on 11/25 which was the 55-day Fibonacci step out from 10/1 and the 13-day Fibonacci step out from 11/12. We believe that a sizable bounce in the PMs is close at hand.

     

• Stocks – The SPX made its all-time high on Wednesday and an undercut low early Tuesday will give us 5-waves down on the hourly chart and a sell signal.
• Gold – Friday was a Big Range Day for gold, and we peaked at $1473 before pulling back into early Monday. We need to close above the 100-day MA around $1485 to get a buy signal.
• Silver – Silver took out Friday's low early Monday but at least the SIL (silver stocks) are leading the PM complex higher.
• Bonds – Bonds finished 5-waves up into Wednesday and is pulling back in an EW a-b-c correction into – we are close to a big move higher.
• Crude Oil – After testing $55.50 on Friday ahead of this week's OPEC meeting, crude oil gave us a corrective bounce.
• Dollar Index – The USD is sub-dividing down impulsively and is leading the SPX lower.

TURNING POINT DAY

       

The turn window for this week is 12/2 and 12/6 – the NFP jobs report.