All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 27, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us an early rally Thursday morning after NVDA earnings, but the announcement that Trump tariffs are going into effect against Canada, Mexico, and China next week sent the market lower into the close. The SPX undercut the Tuesday low at 5909 and that implies that another impulse wave down is underway.  The PCE inflation report early Friday should be a market catalyst, and the 2/27-2/28 New Moon Timing Window could give us a tradable low. The rally pattern of the SPX from Tuesday morning was just 3-wave corrective and we sre now getting another impulse leg down into the 2/27-2/28 New Moon Timing Window. The Option Premium Ratio indicator print 0.89 at the close of Thursday, and that is a multi-month high which is bearish. Gold gave us a strong move down into the  2/27 New Moon on Thursday and undercut $2900. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market in 2025 - cheaper competition from Chinese tech could level the playing field in AI. Our current positions average 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum. We have a 25% over-all allocation to our trading account which is at 100% cash on Thursday's close.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 2/25 and 2/27-2/28.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 26, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The stock market rallied big for a few hours early Wednesday, but the SPX barely closed positive.  NVDA appears to be holding up overnight after earnings and the QQQ could give us a gap-up open early Thursday. But make no mistake, the bears are still in control of this market.    The rally pattern of the SPX from morning is 3-wave corrective and we should look for more sub-division down into the 2/27-2/28 New Moon Timing Window. The PCE inflation report is now the next hurdle for the stock market. Our Option Premium Ratio indicator FAILED to give us the expected "island reversal" pattern Tuesday and the ISEE call/put ratio continued to show exuberant call buying for index calls at the close on Wednesday which is contrary bearish. Gold only gave us a 3-wave sideways correction from its low on Tuesday at $2896 and appears to be rolling over into the 2/27 New Moon. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market in 2025 - cheaper competition from Chinese tech could level the playing field in AI. Our current positions average 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum. We have a 25% over-all allocation to our trading account which is at 100% cash on Wednesday's close.

2/26/25 (Commentary for Wednesday)  We got a tradable low on Tuesday in the SPX, but the rally looks corrective into overnight Wednesday - we could see higher prices early Thursday before another leg down into the 2/27-2/28 New Moon Timing Window. The bond market has traced out an inverse "head and shoulders" pattern on the daily that is bullish for a substantial rally - so far we tested 118'04 into the close on Wednesday. Gold made a new ATH at $2974 and appears to be tracing out an EW a-b-c correction into overnight Wednesday.  Silver may have finished an EW a-b-c from 2/14 into Tuesday - a decisive break above $33 horizontal resistance could start a strong short-covering rally. The SPX made a new divergent ATH on 2/19 at 6144 and corrected as low as 5908 on 2/25 so far. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a divergent ATH above 6144 on 2/19 and made a low so far at 5908.4 on Tuesday, 2/25. The rally from 2/25 is corrective and we expect lower lows into the 2/27-2/28 New Moon Timing Window.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  After making a new ATH Wednesday at $2974, gold is giving us an EW a-b-c correction into the 2/27 New Moon. A major turn window is due around 3/11.

Stocks – The corrective rally from 2/25 could continue into early Thursday but then we are looking for lower lows into Friday's PCE inflation report. 

Gold - Gold rallied to a new ATH at $2974 on Monday and is tracing out just a 3-wave correction into Thursday's New Moon. 

Silver –  Silver gave us an EW a-b-c correction from 2/14 into 2/25 and we may have turned up.

Bonds – Bonds tested 118'04 on Wednesday and then corrected. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $68.36 on Wednesday and could continue down into the 2/27-2/28 New Moon .

Dollar Index – The USD continues to hold near 106.6 overnight Wednesday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 2/25 and 2/27-2/28.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 25, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX declined into the Tuesday turn window today and reversed higher but we did not close positive for the day - the pattern of the reversal still looks corrective and we should look for more sub-division down into the 2/27-2/28 New Moon Timing Window. The earnings for NVDA after the market close on Wednesday are now the next big hurdle for this correction as well as the PCE inflation report early Friday. The SPX/NDX have now given us a four day decline to test their lower Bollinger Band lines on the daily chart and this pullback may be giving us more than a simple EW a-b-c decline from its last ATH on 2/19 at 6134 - the bears remain in control. A review of our option-based sentiment indicators keeps us cautious going into early Wednesday. Our Option Premium Ratio indicator FAILED to give us the expected "island reversal" pattern today and our ISEE call/put ratio showed exuberant call buying for index calls at the close on Tuesday. Gold and silver gave us a hard decline going into Tuesday's Comex gold option expiration and argues for more decline into the 2/27 New Moon. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market in 2025 - cheaper competition from Chinese tech could level the playing field in AI. Our current positions average 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum. We have a 25% over-all allocation to our trading account which is 25% cash, 50% SLV, and 25% NEM on Tuesday's close.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 2/25 and 2/27.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 24, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: For both the SPX and gold, the 2/20-2/21 turn window gave us a reversal down and we are looking for further pullback into Tuesday, 2/25 before a reversal up - the Tuesday after a monthly correction is a turn window. The ideal setup would be a gap-down open in the SPX that gives us an undercut below Monday's low at 5977.83. The E-mini and the NQ futures are just giving us flat, sideways corrections overnight and we could see a gap-down open on the SPX and NDX early Tuesday. The bond market is rallying to 116'28 overnight Monday as it receives a flight to quality. Gold made a new ATH at $2974 early Monday and then proceeded to trace out a 3-wave correction into overnight Monday. Gold is being drawn to the $3000 overhead target but momentum divergences(MACD and RSI) are showing up. Silver is testing $32.3 overnight Monday . We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going in 2025 - cheaper competition from Chinese tech could level the playing field in AI. Our current positions average 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum. We have a 25% over-all allocation to our trading account which is 25% cash, 50% SLV, and 25% NEM at Monday's close.

2/24/25 (Commentary for Monday)  The E-mini continues to correct overnight Monday - we are looking for a tradable low on Tuesday and then a reversal higher. Our fear gauges (the VIX, $TRIN, Option Premium Ratio, etc.) argue for a low on Tuesday and then we expect a rally into the 2/27-2/28 New Moon Timing Window and then into mid-March. From the 2/14 high, the SPX and NDX have given us only 3-wave corrections that are generating enough fear to make a tradable low on Tuesday. The bond market has traced out an inverse "head and shoulders" pattern that is bullish for a substantial rally and move down in rates. Gold made a new ATH at $2974 is correcting in just 3-waves into overnight Monday.  Silver may be finishing an EW a-b-c from 2/14 into Tuesday - a decisive break above $33 horizontal resistance could start a strong short-covering rally. The SPX made a new divergent ATH on 2/19 at 6144 and is giving us a correction into Tuesday. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a divergent ATH above 6144 on 2/19 and now is correcting into Tuesday, 2/25. We are looking for both the SPX and NDX to make a tradeable on Tuesday.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  After making a new ATH Wednesday at $2974, gold is giving us a 3-wave pullback into Tuesday which could give us a tradable low.

Stocks – The E-mini is continuing its decline into Tuesday and we are looking for a tradable low in the SPX and NDX on Tuesday.

Gold - Gold rallied to a new ATH at $2974 on Monday and is tracing out just a 3-wave correction into Tuesday. We are looking for higher highs into the 2/27-2/28 New Moon Timing Window.  

Silver –  Silver is giving us an EW a-b-c correction from 2/14 into Tuesday where we could see a tradable low.

Bonds – Bonds broke out of a coil on the hourly chart and is testing 116'28 overnight Monday. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $69.8 into the weekend and could be heading for a low on the 2/27 New Moon.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding 106.6 overnight Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 2/25 and 2/27.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - February 23, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX started a correction in the 2/20-2/21 turn window and there is a chance for further pullback into Tuesday, 2/25 before a reversal up - the Tuesday after a monthly correction is a turn window and just a 3-wave bounce into Tuesday would be bearish for lower lows in the SPX. The SPY, QQQ, and IWM all gave us a Negative Volume Reversal DAY on Thursday which implied more correction through Tuesday, 2/25. For the VIX, the pinching of the Bollinger Bands forecasted the correction that we saw on Friday. The bond market is breaking out of a bullish coil on the hourly chart which is supportive of higher stock prices. From its ATH at $2973 early Thursday, gold made just a 3-wave correction into early Friday and then started a bounce to $2953 overnight Sunday. Gold is being drawn to the $3000 overhead target but momentum divergences(MACD and RSI) are showing up. Silver gave us three consecutive closes above $33 on Thursday before a slight close below on Friday - the $33 level appears to be defended by some big funds. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going in 2025 - cheaper competition from Chinese tech could level the playing field in AI. Our current positions average 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum. We have a 25% over-all allocation to our trading account which is 25% cash, 50% SLV, and 25% NEM at Friday's close.

2/21/25 (Commentary for Friday)  After a drubbing on Friday, the E-mini is bouncing to test 6060 overnight Sunday - just a 3-wave correction into Tuesday would be bearish for lower lows. The SPX made a divergent new ATH above 6144 on Wednesday and with the pinching of the VIX Bollinger Bands the last several days, a correction was due. The bond market is breaking out of a bullish coil on its hourly chart and caught a flight to quality on Friday's stock decline. Gold pulled back in just 3-waves from its ATH at $2973 early Friday and is bouncing to test $2953 overnight Sunday- silver may have finished an EW a-b-c from 2/14 into Friday's close - a decisive break above $33 horizontal resistance could start a strong short-covering rally. The SPX made a new divergent ATH Wednesday at 6144 and gave us a dramatic correction into Friday's monthly option expiration. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a divergent ATH above 6144 and then finished the week with a swoon into Friday's close. Just a 3-wave bounce into Tuesday would imply a move take out Friday's low at SPX 6010/

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  After making a new ATH Wednesday at $2973, gold gave us just a 3-wave pullback into early Friday and then a 3-wave bounce into overnight Sunday.

Stocks – The SPX got slammed into Friday's monthly option expiration - just a 3-wave bounce into Tuesday would be bearish for an undercut of 6010.

Gold - Gold rallied to a new ATH at $2973 on Wednesday before a 3-wave correction into early Friday.  Gold is rallying overnight Sunday to test $2953.  

Silver –  Silver gave us an EW a-b-c correction from 2/14 into the 2/21 close.

Bonds – Bonds broke out of a coil on the hourly chart and is testing 115'25 overnight Sunday. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $69.8 late Friday but the XLE is outperforming the commodity and looks interesting.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 106.6 overnight Sunday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 2/25 and 2/27.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 20, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: After Wal-Mart earnings pre-market, the SPX gave us just a 3-wave correction and then a bounce into the close. The SPY, QQQ, and IWM all gave us a Negative Volume Reversal DAY which implies that more correction through Tuesday, 2/25 is possible. For the VIX, the rally on Thursday looked corrective and implies an undercut of 15 soon. The bond market is still tracing out a possible bullish coil on the hourly chart which is supportive of higher stock prices. From its ATH at $2973 early Thursday, gold has only traced out a 3-wave correction into early Friday and may be forming a handle on its "hourly cup and handle pattern". Gold is being drawn to the $3000 overhead target but momentum divergences are showing up. Silver gave us three consecutive closes above $33 on Thursday which is bullish for a possible up thrust. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going in 2025 - cheaper competition from Chinese tech could level the playing field in AI. Our current positions average 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum. We have a 25% over-all allocation to our trading account which is 25% cash, 50% SLV, and 25% CDE at Thursday's close.

TURNING POINT DAY

The next turn window is 2/25 - the Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turning point day.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 19, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX made another new high above 6144 and the market pattern looks like higher highs are possible on Thursday. For the VIX, an undercut low below 15 is possible into Friday and that argues for short-term bullishness in the SPX. The bond market is tracing out a possible bullish coil on the hourly chart which is supportive of higher stock prices. Gold finished a 3-wave correction into late Friday and is now rallying to a new ATH at $2973 overnight Wednesday. Gold is being drawn to the $3000 overhead target but momentum divergences are showing up. Silver is breaking upward out of its coil on the hourly chart. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going in 2025 - cheaper competition from Chinese tech could level the playing field in AI. Our current positions average 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum. We have a 25% over-all allocation to our trading account which is 25% cash and 50% SLV, and 25% CDE at Wednesday's close.

2/19/25 (Commentary for Wednesday)  The SPX broke out of its coil formation on the hourly chart on 2/13 and looks like it could push higher to >6150 by Friday's monthly expiration - The SPX made a divergent new ATH above 6144 on Wednesday. The VIX only gave us a corrective bounce into Tuesday  which argues for an undercut low below 15 by Friday and that is near-term bullish for the SPX. The bond market is forming a bullish coil on its hourly chart and with the DSI sentiment numbers so low (~%25) we are expecting higher prices and lower US 10-yr rate ahead. Gold finished a quick 3-wave correction from Friday's close and is testing a new ATH at $2973 overnight Wednesday - silver may have finished a "Running B-Wave" correction into Friday's close and is breaking upward out of its coil pattern on the hourly chart overnight Wednesday. The SPX made a new ATH Wednesday above 6144 and higher prices are possible into Friday's monthly option expiration. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a another new ATH above 6144 and could push higher into Friday's monthly expiration before finding resistance. We still expect multiple 15% corrections in the SPX in 2025 but the SPX could still end the year higher. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold finished a quick EW a-b-c correction on 2/14 and is rallying to a new ATH at $2973 overnight Wednesday.

Stocks – The SPX broke upward out of its coil on 2/13 and made another new ATH Wednesday above 6144 - we could see higher highs before Friday's monthly expiration.

Gold - Gold finished a 3-wave correction on 2/14 and is rallying to a new ATH at $2973 overnight Wednesday - gold is being drawn to the $3000 level.  

Silver –  Silver gave us back-to-back closes above $33 which is bullish and silver is breaking out overnight Wednesday from its coil pattern on the hourly chart.

Bonds – Bonds are forming a bullish coil on the hourly chart and low DSI sentiment numbers have us looking for higher prices and a lower US 10-yr rate. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $70.17 late Friday and is rallying impulsively - we like XOM here.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 106.56 Friday and continues to bounce.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 2/17-2/18.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 18, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX made a new ATH above 6129 and the market feels like higher highs are possible the next few trading days. The VIX bounced correctively on Tuesday and that argues for higher highs in the SPX the next few days. The bond market rallied in a 5-wave impulse pattern to 115'30 before declining in 3-waves - this is market-bullish for lower rates. Gold finished a 3-wave correction into late Friday and is grinding higher to retest its ATH at $2969. Gold is being drawn to the $3000 overhead target but momentum divergences are showing up. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going in 2025 - cheaper competition from Chinese tech could level the playing field in AI. Our current positions average 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum. We have a 25% over-all allocation to our trading account which is 25% cash and 50% SLV, and 25% CDE at Tuesday's close.

2/18/25 (Commentary for Tuesday)  The SPX broke out of its coil formation on the hourly chart on 2/13 and looks like it could push higher to 6150. The VIX only gave us a corrective bounce today which argues for higher SPX highs in the near term. The bond market only declined correctively from 115'30 and this argues for lower rates. Gold finished a quick 3-wave correction from Friday's close and is grinding higher to test its ATH at $2969 - silver may have finished a "Running B-Wave" correction into Friday's close. The SPX could make a new ATH Wednesday but the upside could be limited in the near term. Our bias is to expect big SPX volatility in 2025 that is tradable, and at this point in the year the SPX may  comply with seasonal weakness into late February. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a new ATH above 6129 and could push higher into Friday's monthly expiration before finding resistance. We're in a fluid, news-driven stock market that is reacting to the Trump tariff negotiation process and a Fed rate cut cycle that is constrained by sticky inflation. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold finished a quick EW a-b-c correction on 2/14 and is grinding higher to test its ATH at $2969.

Stocks – The SPX broke upward out of its coil on 2/13 and made a new ATH today above 6129. - we could see higher highs before Friday's monthly expiration.

Gold - Gold finished a 3-wave correction on 2/14 and is grinding higher to test its ATH at $2969 again - gold is being drawn to the $3000 level.  

Silver –  Silver may have finished a Running B-Wave correction late Friday - another daily close above $33 would be bullish.

Bonds – Bonds only corrected in 3-waves from 115'30 - this is market bullish for lower rates. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $70.17 late Friday and is rallying impulsively.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 106.56 Friday and continues to bounce.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 2/17-2/18.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - February 16, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Last week was chaotic in the markets and traders are ready for a long holiday weekend(Monday, 2/17/25, is the President's Day holiday in the US). The CPI came in hotter-than-expected and the SPY came in for a 3-wave EW a-b-c correction into early Wednesday's exact Full Moon before rallying into a new solo ATH at 611.15 on Friday. However, the SPY volume was smaller than the volume on 1/24 and that implies RESISTANCE and shows insufficient strength to break to a convincing new ATH. In addition, the Bollinger Bands of the VIX are pinching tighter now than they did in mid-December before a correction and this BEARISH. The bond market only declined in a 3-wave correction  from 117'01 before rallying in a 5-wave impulse pattern which is market-bullish for lower rates. Gold made a B-Wave test of its ATH at $2969 overnight Thursday and came down in a C-Wave down into Friday's close. Gold is being drawn to the $3000 overhead target but momentum divergences are showing up. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going in 2025 - competition from Chinese tech could level the playing field in AI. Our current positions average 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum. We have a 25% over-all allocation to our trading account which is 25% cash and 50% SLV, and 25% CDE at Thursday's close.

2/14/25 (Commentary for Friday)  The SPX broke out of its coil formation and tested the 6128 high on 1/24 but at lower volume which implies resistance. The Bollinger bands of the VIX are pinching tighter now than at mid-December which looks bearish. The bond market only declined in 3-waves from 117'01 and then rallied in 5-waves into Friday. Gold tested its ATH at $2969 overnight Thursday in a Wave B and then fell into a Wave C into Friday's close - silver may have done a "Running B-Wave" correction into Friday's close. The SPX could make a new ATH early Monday but the upside should be limited in the near term. Our bias is to expect big SPX volatility in 2025 that is tradable, and at this point in the year the SPX may  comply with seasonal weakness into late February. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  We're getting the first part of the UP/DOWN sequence that we predicted last week - we're testing the SPX ATH at 6128 and finding RESISTANCE - we're looking for a move back down to test support. We're in a fluid, news-driven stock market that is reacting to the Trump tariff negotiation process and a Fed rate cut cycle that is constrained by sticky inflation. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold made a B-Wave test of its AYH at $2968 overnight Thursday and then gave us a C-Wave down into Friday's close.

Stocks – The SPX broke upward out of its coil to test the 1/31 high at 6128 but on lighter volume which implies resistance. - we could see a new SPX ATH early Monday before rolling over.

Gold - Gold made a B-Wave test of $2968 overnight Thursday and then might have finished a Wave C down on Friday's close - how we trade overnight Sunday will enlighten us.  

Silver –  Silver may have given us a Running B-Wave early Friday to test $34 before pulling back in a Wave C into Friday's close. How we trade early Monday will enlighten us.

Bonds – Bonds only corrected in 3-waves from 117'01, but then reversed up in 5-waves on its hourly chart which looks stock market bullish.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $70.17 late Friday and is bouncing.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 106.56 overnight Sunday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 2/17-2/18.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 13, 2025

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The PPI inflation report came in hotter-than-expected, but the SPX still tested the ATH at 6128 set on 1/24. However, the SPY volume was smaller than the volume on 1/24 and that shows insufficient strength to break to a new ATH. In addition, the Bollinger Bands of the VIX are pinching tighter now than they did in mid-December before a correction. The bond market only bounced correctively to its 0.382 retracement of its decline from 117'01 which is potentially bearish for higher rates. Gold is testing its ATH at $2969 overnight Thursday while silver is breaking out above $33. Gold is being drawn to the $3000 overhead target but momentum divergences are showing up. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going into Q1 2025 - competition from Chinese tech could level the playing field in AI. Our current positions average 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum. We have a 25% over-all allocation to our trading account which is 25% cash and 50% SLV, and 25% CDE at Thursday's close.

2/13/25 (Commentary for Thursday)  The SPX is breaking upward out of its coil formation and testing the 6120 high on 1/31 but at lower volume which implies resistance. The Bollinger bands of the VIX are pinching tighter now than at mid-December which looks bearish. The bond market only bounced correctively to its 0.382 retrace from the 117'01 and this looks bearish for higher rates soon. Gold is testing its ATH at $2969 overnight Thursday while silver breaks out above $33.  Our bias is to expect big SPX volatility in 2025 that is tradable, and at this point in the year the SPX may  comply with seasonal weakness into late February. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  Our bias is for another up/down sequence to test the overhead ATH in the SPX and then pullback to 5850 and on Thursday we got to 6117 but on lighter volume than on 1/31. We're in a fluid, news-driven stock market that is reacting to the Trump tariff negotiation process and a Fed rate cut cycle that is constrained by sticky inflation. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold is testing its ATH at $2968 Thursday night while silver breaks out above $33.

Stocks – The SPX broke upward out of its coil to test the 1/31 high at 6120 but on lighter volume which implies resistance. - upside here may be limited.

Gold - Gold is testing its ATH at $2968 overnight Thursday - a divergent run to $3000 is possible.  

Silver –  Silver is breaking out above $33 overnight Thursday - a quick move to $35 is possible.

Bonds – Bonds just bounced correctively to test its 0.382 retrace from 117'01 - this is bearish for higher rates.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is bouncing to $71.51 overnight Thursday.

Dollar Index – The USD is falling to 106.86 overnight Thursday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 2/11-2/13, the Full Moon Timing Window.