All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 30, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  Despite a rally in bonds Monday, the SPX and NDX continued their declines from Friday and made undercut lows into today's New Moon. The SPX broke down from 6063 on 12/18 after the "hawkish pause" statement from the FOMC and this area has become important resistance for the market. We did retest this resistance in a 3-wave bounce that got reversed down but this opens the possibility of an extended C-Wave down (of a zig-zag correction) into the New Year that needs to be reckoned with. We had viewed the Fibonacci 21-day step out from the 12/6 ATH as coming into a low at SPX 5931 on Friday and perhaps that extended into early Monday. Our bias, however, has now turned cautious and we are concerned about a move down into early January that could test the gap area around 5800. Three consecutive TRIN-5 SELL SIGNALs (< 4.00) gave us a sell off on Friday and then Monday, and has made us defensive going into the New Year. We reiterate our call for raising 50% cash going into January. The ZBT, the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator, closed below the 0.35 trigger on 12/19 - if it closes above 0.60 by Jan 6, 2025, that is bullish for early 2025 ... if it can't, it will call for a bearish New Year. The first year of the Presidential cycle argues for stock market volatility in 2025 and we could see multiple corrections of 15% in a volatile year as the new US administration settles into power. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going into 2025. Gold made a dramatic undercut low to $2596 in the 3-star critical reversal window on 12/15-12/18 and that level got retested on Monday. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition.

12/30/24 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX declined sharply into early Monday and then tried to rally back into the close - this is bearish behavior. The X-mas rally has so far failed and this makes us cautious going into January. Rising US Treasury rates do not mix well with an S&P 500 sporting a P/E of 23 and we prefer cash here going into year end. The Option Premium Ratio jumped from 0.59 to 0.75 on Monday's close and a move above last week's high at 0.76 would be a SELL SIGNAL The SPXEW, DJIA and IWM have corrected hard in December and we need to respect this price action and market breadth deterioration. The Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) indicator triggered on 12/19 with a close below 0.35 and we will be monitoring this closely into the New Year. If the ZBT makes a daily close above 0.60 by Jan 6, 2025 - that is bullish for early 2025 ... if it can't, it will call for a bearish New Year for the US stock market. The big increase in "insider selling" for CEOs in the S&P 500 is a warning sign that an important stock market high (in a broadening top formation) may be behind us in the US stock market. Gold and silver may have made important lows in the 12/15-12/19 3-star critical reversal turn window last week. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The QQQ made a new ATH at 539.15 on 12/16 and the OEX (S&P 100) made a new ATH at 2981.86 early on 12/18 - these could be the final highs in a large "broadening top" formation for the US stock- The updated Fed guidance - a hawkish pause - has given the stock market a correction from 12/18 that could extend down into January.  Three consecutive  TRIN-5 SELL SIGNALS (< 4.0)  last week has made us defensive going into the New year.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold and silver put in a short-term low going into the 12/15-12/19 3-star critical reversal time window last week and tested those lows on Monday. Sentiment for gold and silver is very low here on the DSI sentiment survey.

Stocks – The SPX was sold hard into early Monday before bouncing into the close. We may have just finished a Wave 1 of a C-Wave down from last week that could extend down into January in a Zig-Zag correction from the 12/6 ATH in the SPX at 6099. We are cautious here as the X=mas rally has failed.

Gold - Gold made an important trading low in the 12/15-12/18  3-star critical reversal window post-Fed at $2596. The low DSI sentiment number for gold at 48 on 12/18 argues that a short-term low is being made into year end. We like NEM and GOLD for a post "tax-loss selling" bounce into January.

Silver –  The low DSI sentiment number for silver on 12/18 argues that an important low is being made into year end.

Bonds – Bonds bounced on Monday but the trend still looks down.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $71 eon Monday.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 108 on Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week is the 12/30-12/31 New Moon Timing Window.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - December 29, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX sold off hard on Friday on no news and tested its 50% retracement of the rally from 12/19. The Fibonacci 21-day step out from the 12/6 ATH came in as a low at SPX 5931 on Friday and then the market reversed higher. Our bias is now for a rally into the 12/29-12/31 New Moon Timing Window that could test SPX 6100 or higher. Three consecutive TRIN-5 SELL SIGNALs (< 4.00) gave us a sell off on Friday, but the SPX recovered going into the close. However, the SPX continues to rally against rising US rates and a strong USD which raises market risk. We still call for raising 50% cash going into the New Year. The ZBT, the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator, closed below the 0.35 trigger on 12/19 - if it closes above 0.60 by Jan 6, 2025, that is bullish for early 2025 ... if it can't, it will call for a bearish New Year. The first year of the Presidential cycle argues for stock market volatility in 2025 and we could see multiple corrections of 15% in a volatile year as the new US administration settles into power. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going into 2025. Gold made a dramatic undercut low to $2596 in the 3-star critical reversal window on 12/15-12/18 which gave us a short-term low. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week is the 12/30-12/31 New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 26, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX continued its X-mas rally on Thursday and made higher highs to 6049.75 whiles testing the overhead supply zones for the SPY/QQQ. We have a Fibonacci 21-day step out time target of 12/27 for a potential Wave B up from the 12/20 low. There is also a possibility of a new ATH above SPX 6100 into the 12/27-12/31 New Moon Timing Window - how we trade into year end will enlighten us on the wave count. The SPX continues to rally against rising US rates and a strong USD which raises risk. From 12/18-12/20 The Option Premium Ratio gave us a 0.59, 0.76, 0.57 run which charts as an "island reversal pattern" which was short-term bullish and started a X-mas rally on 12/20 that could extend into the 21-day Fibonacci step out on 12/27 or next week. However, we did get our third consecutive TRIN-5 SELL SIGNAL (< 4.0) on Thursday's close in thin holiday trading - this is a warning sign that we could see heavy selling going into year end - our caveat is that one-sided holiday trading could be giving us a "false signal" here like around X-mas in 2022. We still call for raising 50% cash going into the New Year. The ZBT, the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator, closed below the 0.35 trigger on 12/19 - if it closes above 0.60 by Jan 6, 2025, that is bullish for early 2025 ... if it can't, it will call for a bearish New Year. The first year of the Presidential cycle argues for stock market volatility in 2025 and we could see multiple corrections of 15% in a volatile year as the new US administration settles into power. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going into 2025. Gold made a dramatic undercut low to $2596 in the 3-star critical reversal window on 12/15-12/18 which gave us a short-term low. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 12/23-12/24 and 12/27.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 25, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX continued its X-mas rally on Tuesday and tested resistance between the 0.618 retracement and the 0.786 retracement from the 12/6 ATH at 6099. We have a Fibonacci 21-day step out time target of 12/27 for a potential Wave B up from the 12/20 low. There is also a possibility of a new ATH above SPX 6100 into the 12/27-12/31 New Moon Timing Window - how we trade into year end will enlighten us on the wave count. The SPX continues to rally against rising US rates and a strong USD which raises risk. From 12/18-12/20 The Option Premium Ratio gave us a 0.59, 0.76, 0.57 run which charts as an "island reversal pattern" which was short-term bullish and started a X-mas rally on 12/20 that could extend into the 21-day Fibonacci step out on 12/27 or next week. However, we did get our second TRIN-5 SELL SIGNAL (< 4.0) on Tuesday's close in thin holiday trading for the first time in 2 years - this is a warning sign that we could see heavy selling going into year end - our caveat is that one-sided holiday trading could be giving us a "false signal" here like around X-mas in 2022. We still call for raising 50% cash going into the New Year. The ZBT, the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator, closed below the 0.35 trigger on 12/19 - if it closes above 0.60 by Jan 6, 2025 - that is bullish for early 2025 ... if it can't, it will call for a bearish New Year. The first year of the Presidential cycle argues for stock market volatility in 2025 and we could see multiple corrections of 15% in a volatile year as the new US administration settles into power. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going into 2025. Gold made a dramatic undercut low to $2596 in the 3-star critical reversal window on 12/15-12/18 which gave us a short-term low. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition.

12/25/24 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX rallied on Tuesday and found resistance short of its 0.786 retracement at 6040 - the SPX and NDX started a X-mas rally on 12/20 and it could either give us a B-Wave top by 12/27 or a possible new ATH above 6100 in the 12/27-12/31 New Moon Timing Window. How the SPX trades into year end will enlighten us. From 12/18-12/20 The Option Premium Ratio gave us a 0.59, 0.76, 0.57 run which charts as an "island reversal pattern" which was short-term bullish for the SPX and argues that we started a X-mas rally on 12/20 that could extend into year end. The SPXEW, DJIA and IWM have been correcting hard over the last week and we need to respect this price action and market breadth deterioration. The Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) indicator triggered on 12/19 with a close below 0.35 and we will be monitoring this closely into the New Year. If the ZBT makes a daily close above 0.60 by Jan 6, 2025 - that is bullish for early 2025 ... if it can't, it will call for a bearish New Year for the US stock market. The big increase in "insider selling" for CEOs in the S&P 500 is a warning sign that an important stock market high (in a broadening top formation) may be soon seen in the US stock market. Gold and silver may have made important lows in the 12/15-12/19 3-star critical reversal turn window last week. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The QQQ made a new ATH at 539.15 on 12/16 and the OEX (S&P 100) made a new ATH at 2981.86 early on 12/18- The updated Fed guidance - a hawkish pause - has given the stock market a correction from 12/18.  We are cautious here after getting back-to-back SELL SIGNALS on our TRIN-5 indicator on 12/23-12/24. The market tape into 1/3 could determine the course of the SPX in Q1 of 2025.   

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold and silver put in a short-term low going into the 12/15-12/19 3-star critical reversal time window last week. Sentiment for gold and silver is very low here on the DSI sentiment survey.

Stocks – Our "island reversal" run pattern in the Option Premium Ratio from 12/18-12/20 gave us a X-mas rally that tested SPX 6040 into Tuesday - is this a B-Wave top or an impulse leg to a new ATH into 12/27-12/31 above 6100 - we are watching the tape closely.

Gold - Gold made an important trading low in the 12/15-12/18  3-star critical reversal window post-Fed at $2596. The low DSI sentiment number for gold at 48 on 12/18 argues that a short-term low is being made into year end.

Silver –  The low DSI sentiment number for silver on 12/18 argues that an important low is being made into year end.

Bonds – Bonds continue to sub-divide down impulsively and this could be a problem for the market as the 10-yr US Treasury rate continues to move higher.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $71 early Thursday before correcting.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 108.3 early Thursday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 12/23-12/24 and 12/27.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 23, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX continued its X-mas rally on Monday and we have a Fibonacci 21-day step out time target of 12/27/24 for a potential Wave B up from the 12/20 low. We could then see a potential Wave C down into year end. The SPX continues to rally against rising US rates and a rising USD. From 12/18-12/20 The Option Premium Ratio gave us a 0.59, 0.76, 0.57 run which charts as an "island reversal pattern" which is short-term bullish for the SPX and argues that we started a X-mas rally on Friday that could extend into the 21-day Fibonacci step out on 12/27. However, we did get our first TRIN-5 SELL SIGNAL (< 4.0) on Monday's close in holiday trading  for the first time in 2 years - this is a warning sign that we could see heavy selling going into year end. We still call for raising 50% cash going into the New Year. The ZBT, the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator, closed below the 0.35 trigger on Thursday - if it closes above 0.60 by Jan 6, 2025 - that is bullish for early 2025 ... if it can't, it will call for a bearish New Year. The first year of the Presidential cycle argues for stock market volatility in 2025 and we could see multiple corrections of 15% in a volatile year as the new US administration settles into power. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going into 2025. Gold made a dramatic undercut low to $2596 in the 3-star critical reversal window on 12/15-12/18 which gave us a short-term low. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week is 12/23-12/24 and 12/27.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - December 22, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX rallied sharply on expiration Friday on the weaker than expected PCE inflation report but sold off on the close on news of a possible looming US government shutdown. However, the shutdown was avoided by an agreement over the weekend,  and we are now looking for at least another leg up on the SPX on Monday as the US markets approach the X-mas holiday. From 12/18-12/20 The Option Premium Ratio gave us a 0.59, 0.76, 0.57 run which charts as an "island reversal pattern" which is short-term bullish for the SPX and argues that we started a X-mas rally on Friday that could extend into the coming week. The ZBT, the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator, closed below the 0.35 trigger on Thursday - if it closes above 0.60 by Jan 6, 2025 - that is bullish for early 2025 ... if it can't, it will call for a bearish New Year. The first year of the Presidential cycle argues for stock market volatility in 2025 and we could see multiple corrections of 15% in a volatile year as the new US administration settles into power. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going into 2025. Gold made a dramatic undercut low to $2596 in the 3-star critical reversal window on 12/15-12/18 which could give us a short-term low. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition.

12/20/24 (Commentary for Friday) The SPX and NDX appeared to make 4th wave corrections on Thursday and both made slight undercut lows near the close - the SPX and NDX appear to have started a X-mas rally on Friday. From 12/18-12/20 The Option Premium Ratio gave us a 0.59, 0.76, 0.57 run which charts as an "island reversal pattern" which is short-term bullish for the SPX and argues that we started a X-mas rally on Friday that could extend into the holiday week. The SPXEW, DJIA and IWM have been correcting hard over the last week and we need to respect this price action and market breadth deterioration. The Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) indicator triggered on Thursday with a close below 0.35 and we will be monitoring this closely. If the ZBT makes a daily close above 0.60 by Jan 6, 2025 - that is bullish for early 2025 ... if it can't, it will call for a bearish New Year for the US stock market. The big increase in "insider selling" for CEOs in the S&P 500 is a warning sign that an important stock market high (in a broadening top formation) may be soon seen in the US stock market. Gold and silver may have made important lows in the 12/15-12/19 3-star critical reversal turn window last week. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The QQQ made a new ATH at 539.15 on 12/16 and the OEX (S&P 100) made a new ATH at 2981.86 early on 12/18- The updated Fed guidance on rate cuts (the dot plot) for 2025 may have given us a quick EW a-b-c correction going into the PCE inflation report early Friday.   

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold and silver put in a short-term low going into the 12/15-12/19 3-star critical reversal time window last week. 

Stocks – The weaker than expected PCE inflation report early Friday may have started a SPX X-mas rally early Friday - we could see another leg up on Monday. 

Gold - Gold made an important trading low in the 12/15-12/18  3-star critical reversal window post-Fed at $2596. The low DSI sentiment number for gold at 48 on 12/18 argues that a short-term low was made.

Silver –  The low DSI sentiment number for silver on 12/18 argues that an important low was made at $29.145 on Thursday.

Bonds – Bonds only gave us a 3-wave corrective bounce to 114'09 on Friday after the PCE inflation report.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is holding $69.71 overnight Sunday.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding 107.93 overnight Sunday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/23-12/24.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 19, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX and NDX rebounded early Thursday but ended the day with a slight undercut of Wednesday's lows. Overall, the lack of fear shown in the $TRIN and put/call ratios is a bearish signal for the market. Tomorrow brings an important monthly option expiration and the important PCE inflation report which could generate volatility. The SPX appeared to trace out a 4th wave correction today and the PCE inflation report early Friday has the potential to send the SPX to lows for the week. The DJIA gave us a historic 10 consecutive down days into Wednesday's close and the breakdown in market breadth shown by the Russell 2000 and SPXEW is generating an important market signal here as the financial markets adjust to their new forward guidance from the Fed. Important index highs may now be in place like late 2021. The first year of the Presidential cycle argues for stock market volatility in 2025 and we could see multiple corrections of 15% in a volatile year as the new US administration settles into power. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going into 2025. Gold made a dramatic undercut low to $2596 in the 3-star critical reversal window on 12/15-12/18 which could give us a short-term low. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition.

12/19/24 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX and NDX appeared to make 4th wave corrections on Thursday and both made slight undercut lows near the close. The fact that the Option Premium Ratio jumped from 0.59 to 0.76 as the CBOE put/call ratio rose from 0.83 to 1.06 suggests that we could see a trading low by Friday. The SPXEW, DJIA and IWM have been correcting hard over the last week and we need to respect this price action and market breadth deterioration. The big increase in "insider selling" for CEOs in the S&P 500 is a warning sign that an important stock market high (in a broadening top formation) may be soon seen in the US stock market.  Gold and silver could still make important lows in the 12/15-12/19 3-star critical reversal turn window this week. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The QQQ made a new ATH at 539.15 on Monday and the OEX (S&P 100) made a new ATH at 2981.86 early Wednesday - the updated Fed guidance on rate cuts (the dot plot) for 2025 may have completed an important broadening top formation in the US market this week.   

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold and silver are trying to put in at least a short-term low in the 12/15-12/19 3-star critical reversal time window. 

Stocks – The updated Fed rate cut guidance may be close to completing a broadening top pattern in the US stock market. 

Gold - Gold could have made an important trading low in the 12/15-12/18  3-star critical reversal window post-Fed at $2596.

Silver –  Silver made a lower low today at $29.14.

Bonds – Bonds tested 113'17 during the day session and bounced to 114'08 overnight.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $69 overnight Thursday.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing highs for the week at 108.57 overnight Thursday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/16-12/17.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 18, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX and NDX rebounded early Thursday but ended the day with a slight undercut of Wednesday's lows. Overall, the lack of fear shown in the $TRIN and put/call ratios is a bearish signal for the market. Tomorrow brings an important monthly option expiration and the important PCE inflation report which could generate volatility. The SPX appeared to trace out a 4th wave correction today and the PCE inflation report early Friday has the potential to send the SPX to lows for the week. The DJIA gave us a historic 10 consecutive down days into Wednesday's close and the breakdown in market breadth shown by the Russell 2000 and SPXEW is generating an important market signal here as the financial markets adjust to their new forward guidance from the Fed. Important index highs may now be in place like late 2021. The first year of the Presidential cycle argues for stock market volatility in 2025 and we could see multiple corrections of 15% in a volatile year as the new US administration settles into power. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going into 2025. Gold made a dramatic undercut low to $2596 in the 3-star critical reversal window on 12/15-12/18 which could give us a short-term low. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition.

12/18/24 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX and NDX appeared to make 4th wave corrections on Thursday and both made slight undercut lows near the close. The fact that the Option Premium Ratio jumped from 0.59 to 0.76 as the CBOE put/call ratio rose from 0.83 to 1.06 suggests that we could see a trading low by Friday. The SPXEW, DJIA and IWM have been correcting hard over the last week and we need to respect this price action and market breadth deterioration. The big increase in "insider selling" for CEOs in the S&P 500 is a warning sign that an important stock market high (in a broadening top formation) may be soon seen in the US stock market.  Gold and silver could still make important lows in the 12/15-12/19 3-star critical reversal turn window this week. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The QQQ made a new ATH at 539.15 on Monday and the OEX (S&P 100) made a new ATH at 2981.86 early Wednesday - the updated Fed guidance on rate cuts (the dot plot) for 2025 may have completed an important broadening top formation in the US market this week.   

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold and silver are trying to put in at least a short-term low in the 12/15-12/18 3-star critical reversal time window. 

Stocks – The updated Fed rate cut guidance may have completed a broadening top pattern in the US stock market. We prefer to hold cash going into Thursday/Friday instead of chasing a Santa Claus rally.

Gold - Gold could have made an important trading low in the 12/15-12/18  3-star critical reversal window post-Fed at $2596.

Silver –  Silver could also make an important trading low this week.

Bonds – Bonds are testing 114'13 overnight Wednesday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $70 overnight Wednesday.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 108.27 post-Fed and is correcting overnight Wednesday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/16-12/17.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 17, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: It appears to us that the SPX and NDX are close to finishing a small EW a-b-c correction going into Fed Wednesday. We see a possible setup for a X-mas rally into the first week of January. The DJIA is now down 8 consecutive days in a row and the SPX is now set up for a reversal higher on Fed Wednesday. We plan on adding a small SPY trading position on early weakness Wednesday and holding it into the first trading day of January. The seasonality of a Fed week is to see a SPX high on Monday and then a consolidation into the minutes on Fed Wednesday and that action is playing out. The DJIA is now down eight consecutive down days into Tuesday and we could see  a mean-reversion long trade triggered tomorrow as well. However, we would be looking to take some Big Tech profits and raise 50% cash going into the New Year. We are anticipating a major stock market high to be made in January that is at least as important as the high made on 1/4/2022. The first year of the Presidential cycle argues for stock market volatility in 2025 and we could see multiple corrections of 15% in a volatile year as the new US administration settles into power. The last three PPI reports are arguing that inflation has bottomed and is resurging at the wholesale level - this makes the Fed decision on Wednesday very key for the market going into year end. Post-Fed, we are looking for a Santa Claus rally going into X-mas and expect the IWM to outperform going into January. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going into 2025. Gold is making an undercut low to $2646 in the 12/15-12/17 Full Moon Timing Window - this makes us very cautious on gold because it broke Friday's low but there is a 3-star critical reversal window on 12/15-12/18 which could form a low. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition.

 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/16-12/17.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 16, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The E-mini pulled back into the 12/13-12/16 Full Moon Timing Window and is reversing up Sunday night. Our bias is for higher SPX and NDX prices into the first week of January 2025. In the short term, we have a Fed week this and a PCE inflation report on Friday. The seasonality of a Fed week is to see a SPX high on Monday and then a consolidation into the minutes on Fed Wednesday. According to form,  the E-mini made a new ATH at 6161.75 on Monday and now we will look for consolidation into Wednesday. The DJIA is now down eight consecutive down days into Monday and we are now looking for a mean-reversion long trade soon. However, we would be looking to take some Big Tech profits and raise 50% cash going into the New Year. We are anticipating a major stock market high to be made in January that is at least as important as the high made on 1/4/2022. The first year of the Presidential cycle argues for stock market volatility in 2025 and we could see multiple corrections of 15% in a volatile year as the new US administration settles into power. The last three PPI reports are arguing that inflation has bottomed and is resurging at the wholesale level - this makes the Fed decision on Wednesday very key for the market going into year end. Post-Fed, we are looking for a Santa Claus rally going into X-mas and expect the IWM to outperform going into January. We are still holding our FXI position and like it longer term as a hedge against the US stock market going into 2025. Gold is making an undercut low to $2646 in the 12/15-12/17 Full Moon Timing Window - this makes us very cautious on gold because it broke Friday's low but there is a 3-star critical reversal window on 12/15-12/18 which could form a low. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition.

12/16/24 (Commentary for Monday) The QQQ gave us a new ATH on Monday and we are now looking for consolidation going into the minutes on Fed Wednesday. The SPXEW, DJIA and IWM have been correcting hard over the last week and we would be looking to add some IWM shares post-Fed for a Santa Claus rally into the first week of January. A correction down to test SPX 6000 is still possible into Fed Wednesday. The big increase in "insider selling" for CEOs in the S&P 500 is a warning sign that an important market high could be seen in early 2025. Gold and silver could make important lows in the 12/15-12/18 3-star critical reversal turn window. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The QQQ made a new ATH at 539.15 on Monday and we expect the SPX to exceed 6099 by early January.  The closing TRIN-5 > 6.0 on 12/4 argues for more rally into early January, but the SPX could pull back to test 6000 into Fed Wednesday. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold took out Friday's low but could be bottoming in the 12/15-12/17 Full Moon Timing Window that includes a 3-star critical reversal window.

Stocks – The QQQ made a new ATH at 539.15 on Monday and we should see the SPX exceed 6099 by early January. We are long the FXI(China) as a hedge against the US stock market. However, we like the IWM as a play on a Santa Claus rally here going into Fed Wednesday.

Gold - Gold could be making an important trading low in the 12/15-12/17 Full Moon Timing Window that includes a 3-star critical reversal window going into Fed Wednesday.

Silver –  Silver could be setting up for an important low this week.

Bonds – Bonds are testing 115'22 early Tuesday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $66.72 early Tuesday.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding 106.87 early Tuesday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/16-12/17.