All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 28, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX broke its seven day winning streak and declined on Wednesday. The ES appears to have finished an EW a-b-c decline on the hourly chart and is poised to rally early Friday. We are looking to sell our SPY shares into a Friday rally to a new ATH. The SPX will enter the 11/29-12/2 New Moon Timing Window on Friday's holiday-shortened session which is a time window for a potential high. Six time spirals are due to bottom in the 11/29-12/2 time window and we want to exit all of our long trade positions on Friday and watch what happens. Gold pulled back to $2612 on Monday in just 3-waves into Comex option expiration and that gave us the low for the week. To us, the low in the 11/14-11/15 Full Moon Timing at $2541 was in the 3-star critical reversal turn window for gold and we saw Sequential 9 lows in both GLD and SLV which is short-term bullish. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

11/28/24 (Commentary for Thursday) From Monday's early high, the SPX gave us a Running B-wave correction with the B-Wave high on SPX 6025 on Tuesday's close and the C-Wave down into Wednesday.  The SPX now looks ready to rally into the 11/29-12/2 New Moon Timing Window. The big increase in "insider selling" for CEOs in the S&P 500 is a warning sign that an important market high is close. The SPX is poised to give us a final "overthrow" above its channel line into early December.  Gold gave us an important low at $2541 in the 11/14-11/15 New Moon Timing Window which was also in its 3-star critical reversal turn window. GLD and SLV both gave us Sequential 9 lows on 11/15. Gold gave us just a 3-wave pullback into the 11/26 Comex option expiration which was the low for the week.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a new ATH at 6025 late Tuesday after the good volume and good breadth on Monday - we're looking for more gains into the 11/29-12/1 New Moon Timing Window.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Our view has changed on gold. We are now viewing the $2541 low on 11/14 as an important low in its 3-star critical reversal turn window.  GLD and SLV both gave us Sequential 9 bottoms on the 11/15 Full Moon.

Stocks – The SPX gave us a Running B-Wave correction from its early Monday high with a B-Wave high at 6025 on Tuesday's close and a C-Wave down into Wednesday - we are looking  for an important top into the 11/29-12/2 New Moon Timing Window. We plan to exit all long trading positions on Friday.

Gold - Gold gave us a big volume 3-wave pullback into Tuesday's Comex option expiration and so far we have a bounce that could run into the 11/29-12/2 New Moon Timing Window.

Silver –  Silver may have ended an EW a-b-c correction late Wednesday.

Bonds – Bonds are testing multi-week highs at 119'07 overnight Thursday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil are holding at $68.66 overnight Thursday.

Dollar Index – The USD is finishing an EW a-b-c pullback on the hourly chart at 105.62 overnight Thursday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window this week for the SPX is now 11/29-12/2.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 26, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX closed strong on Tuesday and reached a new ATH at 6026.96 after seven up days in a row - the DJIA also made a new ATH. We are looking to buy a 3-wave dip in the SPY on Wednesday for a spike into the 11/29-12/2 New Moon Timing Window - this would be a small position that could be sold on Friday 11/29 or on Monday 12/2. The SPX decline on 11/15 to 5851 was a "Selling Climax", but it could be retested again on Wednesday. Gold pulled back to $2612 on Monday in just 3-waves into Comex option expiration. To us, the low in the 11/14-11/15 Full Moon Timing at $2541 was in the 3-star critical reversal turn window for gold and we saw Sequential 9 lows in both GLD and SLV. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

11/26/24 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX gave us a new ATH at the close on Tuesday in addition to the solid internals on Monday's rally and a Big Positive Volume Reversal Day. The spike in the new 52-wk NYSE highs > 400 on Monday was also a sign of strength for a rally into the 11/29-12/2 New Moon Timing Window. The SPX looks ready to rally into the 11/29-12/2 New Moon Timing Window. However,  the big increase in "insider selling" for CEOs in the S&P 500 is a warning sign that an important market high is close. The post-election rally in the stock market took the SPX up to channel resistance on the daily chart and this could be the high. However, the SPX is poised to give us a final "overthrow" above its channel line into early December.  Gold gave us an important low at $2541 in the 11/14-11/15 New Moon Timing Window which was also in its 3-star critical reversal turn window. GLD and SLV both gave us Sequential 9 lows on 11/15. Gold gave us just a 3-wave pullback into the 11/26 Comex Option expiration.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a new ATH at 6026 late Tuesday after the good volume and good breadth on Monday - we're looking for more gains into the 11/29-12/1 New Moon Timing Window.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Our view has changed on gold. We are now viewing the $2541 low on 11/14 as an important low in its 3-star critical reversal turn window.  GLD and SLV both gave us Sequential 9 bottoms on the 11/15 Full Moon.

Stocks – The SPX rallied late on Tuesday and made a new ATH at 6026 before the close - we are looking  for a top into the 11/29-12/2 New Moon Timing Window.

Gold - Gold gave us a big volume 3-wave pullback into Tuesday's Comex option expiration and so far we have a bounce that could be a B-Wave.

Silver –  Silver also gave us a big volume 3-wave pullback into Tuesday's Comex option expiration.

Bonds – Bonds are testing multi-week highs at 118'29 early Wednesday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil gave us an EW 5-wave pullback to $68.27 on Tuesday ahead of the PCE inflation data early Wednesday.

Dollar Index – The USD appears to be working on an EW a-b-c pullback on the hourly chart that is not complete.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window this week for the SPX is now 11/29-12/2.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 25, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX spiked to a new ATH at 6020.75 on strong volume and the NYSE Composite and the DJIA also made  new ATHs. The NYSE new 52-wk highs spiked to 423 close to the level on 11/6 and the next leg higher in the SPX may have started. We are looking to buy 3-wave dips in the SPY on Tuesday for a spike into the 11/29-12/1 New Moon Timing Window. The SPX decline on 11/15 to 5851 was a "Selling Climax", but it could be retested again on Tuesday. Gold pulled back to $2612 on Monday in just 3-waves into Comex option expiration.  To us, the low in the 11/14-11/15 Full Moon Timing at $2541 was in the 3-star critical reversal turn window for gold and we saw Sequential 9 lows in both GLD and SLV. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

11/25/24 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX gave us a new ATH and solid internals on Monday's rally and a Big Positive Volume Reversal Day. The spike in the new 52-wk NYSE highs > 400 was also a sign of strength. The SPX now looks ready to blow off into the 11/29-12/1 New Moon Timing Window. However,  the big increase in "insider selling" for CEOs in the S&P 500 is a warning sign that an important market high is close. The post-election rally in the stock market took the SPX up to channel resistance on the daily chart and this could be the high. However, the SPX is poised to give us a final "overthrow" above its channel line into early December.  Gold gave us an important low at $2541 in the 11/14-11/15 New Moon Timing Window which was also in its 3-star critical reversal turn window. GLD and SLV both gave us Sequential 9 lows on 11/15. Gold gave us just a 3-wave pullback into the 11/26 Comex Option expiration.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a new ATH at 6026 on good volume and good breadth - we're looking for more blow off into the 11/29-12/1 New Moon Timing Window.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Our view has changed on gold. We are now viewing the $2541 low on 11/14 as an important low in its 3-star critical reversal turn window.  GLD and SLV both gave us Sequential 9 bottoms on the 11/15 Full Moon.

Stocks – The SPX rallied early Monday and made a new ATH at 6026 before declining to fill it's opening gap - we are now looking to buy dips for a run up into 11/29-12/1 which could be an important high.

Gold - Gold gave us a big volume pullback into Tuesday's Comex option expiration.

Silver –  Silver gave us a big volume pullback into Tuesday's Comex option expiration.

Bonds – Bonds rallied to 118'16 on Monday..

Crude Oil – Crude oil is declining impulsively and could test $68.47.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing107.2 overnight Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window this week for the SPX is 11/25-11/26.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - November 24, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The ES is up overnight Sunday to multi-day highs at 6013 but holiday seasonality usually brings a low on Monday or Tuesday. We are being patient until the market tape resolves gives us a clear buy signal on the SPY. The SPX decline on 11/15 to 5851 still looked like a "Selling Climax" going into Friday's trade, but it could be retested again on Monday/Tuesday. Gold is pulling back overnight Sunday and testing $2662.  For us, the low in the 11/14-11/15 Full Moon Timing at $2541 was in the 3-star critical reversal turn window for gold and we saw Sequential 9 lows in both GLD and SLV. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

11/24/24 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX and NDX gave us volatility last week going into and out of NVDA earnings. The big increase in "insider selling" for CEOs in the S&P 500 is a warning sign that an important market high is close. In this week's shortened holiday trading, we are looking for a possible SPX low on Monday/Tuesday before a rally to test the ATH at 6017 by the 12/1-12/2 New Moon Timing Window.  The post-election rally in the stock market has taken the SPX up to channel resistance on the daily chart and this could be the high. However, the SPX could still give us a final "overthrow" above its channel line into early December.  Gold gave us an important low at $2541 in the 11/14-11/15 New Moon Timing Window which was also in its 3-star critical reversal turn window. GLD and SLV both gave us Sequential 9 lows on 11/15.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The post-election rally started 11/4 at SPX 5696 and our bias is for at a least a retest of the SPX ATH at 6017 into the 12/1-12/2 New Moon Timing Window. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Our view has changed on gold. We are now viewing the $2541 low on 11/14 as an important low in its 3-star critical reversal turn window.  GLD and SLV both gave us Sequential 9 bottoms on the 11/15 Full Moon.

Stocks – The ES is higher overnight Sunday but the typical holiday seasonality is for a low on Monday/Tuesday and we are being patient.

Gold - We are bullish on gold here as it pulls back overnight Sunday. The low at $2541 looks like gold's 3-star critical reversal window low and both GLD and SLV gave us Sequential 9 lows on the 11/15 Full Moon.

Silver –  We are bullish on silver as it pulls back Sunday night. SLV gave us a Sequential 9 low on 11/15 and we are looking to buy dips.

Bonds – Bonds are bouncing to 117'15 overnight Sunday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is pulling back to $70.78 overnight Sunday and may be coiling for a spike. 

Dollar Index – The USD is holding around 107 overnight Sunday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window this week for the SPX is 11/25-11/26.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 21, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: We've seen rollercoaster volatility in the SPX/NDX following the release of NVDA's earnings after the market close on Wednesday. There has been no clear impulsive rally in the SPX from the lows this week, however, there was a Positive Volume Reversal today in the SPY and QQQ. Still, prudence is required before taking a long SPY or long QQQ position. We are being patient until the market tape resolves itself. The SPX decline on 11/15 to 5851 still looks like a "Selling Climax" going into Friday's trade but it could be retested again. Gold continues to sub-divide higher on the hourly chart and is testing $2700 overnight Thursday - to us, the low in the 11/14-11/15 Full Moon Timing Window-last week could have been the 3-star critical reversal turn window. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window this week for the SPX is 11/18-11/20.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 20, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The big inflection point for the SPX this week is the market response to the earnings report from NVDA afterhours and so far the ES has formed a coil pattern drawn from the early lows on Tuesday. Taking out ES 5957 early Thursday would be a bullish break of this coil pattern  but taking out ES 5863 would be a bearish break down. The huge option spend on NVDA calls and puts has factored in about a 10% move in the NVDA stock and will give us volatility in the SPX early Thursday. The SPX tested its low on 11/15 on lighter volume again and then reversed higher into the close. The SPX decline on Friday to 5851 still looks like a "Selling Climax" going into Thursday's trade. Our target for the SPX is 6200 by  mid-December. Gold made a short-term low at $2541 on Friday into the Full Moon but then only gave us a 3-wave bounce to $2664 into the 11/18-11/20 3-star critical reversal turn window which looks like a high. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

11/20/24 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX and NDX gave us volatility this week going into the NVDA earnings and chances are we will see more volatility into Thursday as all the NVDA option spend gets unwound. How the market reacts to the NVDA report will set the short-term trend for the market. The post-election rally in the stock market has taken the SPX up to channel resistance on the daily chart and this could be the high. However, depending on the reaction from the NVDA earnings report, the SPX could give us a final "overthrow" above its channel line - this would fit with our bias that the post-election rally would give us a 10% gain to SPX 6200 by early December. We may be currently working on just an EW a-b-c correction (wave  2 ?) of the rally from 11/4 to 11/11. Our plan has been to buy a small position on a 3-wave pullback in the SPY and QQQ on the hourly chart if the VIX spiked above 17 - we saw this on Friday and added a small position in the SPY and added another small position in the SMH on the retest of SPX 5851 Tuesday morning. Gold gave us a low last week at $2541 in the 11/14-11/15 New Moon Timing Window but only gave us a 3-wave bounce into the 3-star critical reversal turn window from 11/18-11/20 which is BEARISH for gold.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The post-election rally started 11/4 at SPX 5696 and our bias is for a final blow off to 6200 into mid-December. But first, we're getting a pullback that is testing the gap at SPX 5850 on Friday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold tagged $2541 on 11/14 as we entered the Full Moon Timing window but only gave us a 3-wave bounce to $2664 into the 3-star critical reversal turn window on 11/18-11/20 - this  looks like a short-term high for gold.

Stocks – The SPX tested Friday's low at SPX 5851 on lighter volume and we added a small position in SMH on Tuesday morning. We are looking for SPX volatility early Thursday that resolves higher.

Gold - After making a short-term low on 11/14, gold could only give us a 3-wave bounce into the 11/18-11/20 3-star critical reversal turn window - this is short-term BEARISH.

Silver –  Silver hit a Fibonacci target at $29.75 early Thursday as we entered the 11/14-11/18 Full Moon Timing Window but only gave us a 3-wave bounce to $31.62 into the 11/18-111/19 turn window - this is short-term BEARISH.

Bonds – The bond market broke out of a coil pattern and gave us a bounce early Tuesday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is holding at $69.36 on Wednesday night. 

Dollar Index – The USD is holding at 106.64 Wednesday night.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window this week for the SPX and gold is 11/18-11/20.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 19, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: On geo-political fears overnight, the ES took out its lows from 11/15 and reversed higher in a Key Reversal Day. The US stock market was hard to hold down after overnight fears. The SPX tested its low on 11/15 on lighter volume and then reversed higher. The SPX decline on Friday to 5851 now looks like a "Selling Climax" that could be retested again before the NVDA earnings on Wednesday. The big inflection point this week should by the NVDA earnings report after the market close on Wednesday. Our target for the SPX is 6200 by  mid-December. Gold made a short-term low at $2541 on Friday into the Full Moon but then only gave us a 3-wave bounce to $2643 into the 11/18-11/19 3-star critical reversal turn window which looks like a high. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

11/19/24 (Commentary for Tuesday) The markets are at an important inflection report this week and the most important item is the NVDA earnings on Wednesday after the market close. How the market reacts to the NVDA report will set the short-term trend for the market. The market needs reassurance that the AI boom is continuing to extend. The post-election rally in the stock market has taken the SPX up to channel resistance on the daily chart and this could be the high. However, depending on the reaction from the NVDA earnings report, the SPX could give us a final "overthrow" above its channel line - this would fit with our bias that the post-election rally would give us a 10% gain to SPX 6200 by early December. We may be currently working on just an EW a-b-c correction (wave  2 ?) of the rally from 11/4 to 11/11. Our plan has been to buy a small position on a 3-wave pullback in the SPY and QQQ on the hourly chart if the VIX spiked above 17 - we saw this on Friday and added a small position in the SPY and added another small position in the SMH on the retest of SPX 5851 this morning. Gold gave us a low last week at $2541 in the 11/14-11/15 New Moon Timing Window but only gave us a 3-wave bounce into the 3-star critical reversal time window from 11/18-11/19 which is BEARISH for gold.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The post-election rally started 11/4 at SPX 5696 and could give us a final blow off to 6200 into mid-December. But first, we got a pullback to test the gap at SPX 5850 on Friday and today.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold tagged $2541 on 11/14 as we entered the Full Moon Timing window but only gave us a 3-wave bounce to $2643 into the 3-star critical reversal turn window on 11/18-11/19 - this  looks like a short-term high for gold.

Stocks – The SPX tested Friday's low at SPX 5851 on lighter volume and we added a small position in SMH. We are looking for a reversal higher after Nvidia's earnings report.

Gold - After making a short-term low on 11/14, gold could only give us a 3-wave bounce into the 11/18-11/19 3-star critical reversal turn window - this is BEARISH.

Silver –  Silver hit a Fibonacci target at $29.75 early Thursday as we entered the 11/14-11/18 Full Moon Timing Window but only gave us a 3-wave bounce to $31.62 into the 11/18-111/19 turn window - this is BEARISH.

Bonds – The bond market broke out of a coil pattern and gave us a bounce early Tuesday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil held up to $69.31 on Tuesday. 

Dollar Index – The USD tested 107 early 11/14 and then pulled back to 106.15 on Tuesday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window this week for the SPX and gold is 11/18-11/20.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 18, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX did an inside day on Monday but could still decline further into Tuesday. The big inflection point this week should by the NVDA earnings report after the market close on Wednesday. Since the Full Moon made a conjunction with Uranus on Friday, there is a possibility of more SPX decline on Tuesday as we finish an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly chart into the 11/15-11/19 3-star critical reversal turn window for stocks. Our target for the SPX is 6200 by  mid-December. For gold, the 13-day Fibonacci step out from the $2801 ATH, on 11/12, only gave us a 3-wave corrective bounce before another move down to $2641 into the 11/14-11/19 Full Moon Timing Window - a 3-star critical reversal is due on 11/15-11/18. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

11/18/24 (Commentary for Monday) The markets are at an important inflection report this week and the most important item is the NVDA earnings on Wednesday after the market close. How the market reacts to the NVDA report will set the short-term trend for the market. Several volatility models that went short the SPX on 11/11 closed out on Friday, but the big inflection point for the week will be on Wednesday  with NVDA's earnings - the market needs reassurance that the AI boom is continuing to extend. The post-election rally in the stock market has taken the SPX up to channel resistance on the daily chart and this could be the high. However, depending on the reaction from the NVDA earnings report, the SPX could give us a final "overthrow" above its channel line - this would fit with our bias that the post-election rally would give us a 10% gain to SPX 6200 by early December. We may be currently working on just an EW a-b-c correction (wave  2 ?) of the rally from 11/4 to 11/11. Our plan has been to buy a small position on a 3-wave pullback in the SPY or QQQ on the hourly chart if the VIX spiked above 17 - we saw this on Friday and added a small position. Gold gave us a low last week at $2541 in the 11/14-11/15 Full Moon Timing Window and is giving us a 3-wave bounce into the 3-star critical reversal time window from 11/18-11/19.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The post-election rally started 11/4 at SPX 5696 and could give us a final blow off to 6200 into mid-December. But first, we saw a pullback to test the gap at SPX 5850 on Friday.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold tagged $2541 on 11/14 as we entered the Full Moon Timing window and gave us a 3-wave bounce to $2624 overnight Monday. We have a 3-star critical reversal turn window from 11/15-11/19 for gold and this could give us a high or a low.

Stocks – The SPX gave us an inside day on Monday but could still undercut its Friday low at 5853 on Tuesday/Wednesday. Our plan was to  buy a small position in the SPY or QQQ on a 3-wave dip in the SPX on the hourly chart that is accompanied by a VIX spike above 17 and we got that on Friday.

Gold – Gold is now bouncing to $2624 overnight Monday as it moves through its 3-star critical reversal turn window from 11/15-11/19 that could be a high or a low. 

Silver –  Silver hit a Fibonacci target at $29.75 early Thursday as we entered the 11/14-11/18 Full Moon Timing Window and is also bouncing in a 3-wave rally to $31.34 overnight Monday.

Bonds – The bond market is bouncing to 116'24 overnight Monday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $69 overnight Monday. 

Dollar Index – The USD tested 107 early Thursday and has pulled back to 106.53 early Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window this week for the SPX and gold is 11/18-11/20.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - November 17, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX declined hard after the hotter-than-expected retail sales report on Friday. The VIX partially filled its gap above 15.5 from 11/6, the day after the election.  Since the Full Moon made a conjunction with Uranus on Friday, there is a possibility of more SPX decline on Monday/Tuesday as we finish an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly chart into the 11/15-11/19 3-star critical reversal time window for stocks. Our VIX volatility model gapped above its upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart - if the VIX makes a close below its upper Bollinger Band that would give us a BUY signal for the SPX. Our bias was that the stock market would not like the economic reports on Thursday/Friday and the SPX would continue down in its correction into Friday's Full Moon. Ideally, we would like to see the VIX fill its large gap from11/6(15.5-20) before we buy the SPY or QQQ. Our target for the SPX is 6200 by  mid-December. For gold, the 13-day Fibonacci step out from the $2801 ATH, on 11/12, only gave us a 3-wave corrective bounce before another move down to $2641 into the 11/14-11/19 Full Moon Timing Window - a 3-star critical reversal is due on 11/15-11/18. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

11/17/24 (Commentary for Sunday) The markets are at an important inflection report this week and the most important item is the NVDA earnings on Wednesday after the market close. How the market reacts to the NVDA report will set the short-term trend for the market. Several volatility models that went short the SPX on 11/11 closed out on Friday, but the big inflection point for the week will be on Wednesday  with NVDA's earnings - the market needs reassurance that the AI boom is continuing to extend. The post-election rally in the stock market has taken the SPX up to channel resistance on the daily chart. Depending on the reaction from the NVDA earnings report, the SPX could give us a final "overthrow" above its channel line - this would fit with our bias that the post-election rally could give us a 10% gain to SPX 6200 by early December. We may be currently working on just an EW a-b-c correction (wave  2 ?) of the rally from 11/4 to 11/11. Our plan has been to buy a small position on a 3-wave pullback in the SPY and QQQ on the hourly chart if the VIX spiked above 17 - we saw this on Friday. Gold gave us a low last week at $2541 in the 11/14-11/15 and is giving us a 3-wave bounce into the 3-star critical reversal time period from 11/15-11/18.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The post-election rally started 11/4 at SPX 5696 and could give us a final blow off to 6200 into mid-December. But first, we are seeing a pullback to test the gap at SPX 5850.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold tagged $2541 on 11/14 as we entered the Full Moon Timing window and gave us 3-wave bounce so far into early Monday. We have a 3-star critical reversal turn window from 11/15-11/18 for gold and this could give us a high or a low.

Stocks – The SPX broke lower on Friday on a hotter-than-expected retail sales report. Our plan was to  buy a small position in the SPY or QQQ on a 3-wave dip in the SPX on the hourly chart that is accompanied by a VIX spike above 17 and we saw that on Friday.

Gold – Gold tested $2541 on Thursday as we entered the 11/14-11/15 Full Moon Timing Window and is now bouncing into its 3-star critical reversal time window on 11/15-1/19 that could be a high or a low. 

Silver –  Silver hit a Fibonacci target at $29.75 early Thursday as we entered the 11/14-11/18 Full Moon Timing Window and is also bouncing in a 3-wave rally into Monday .

Bonds – The bond market tested 115'09 early Monday and is bouncing.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $66.53 overnight Sunday in the Full Moon Timing Window and is bouncing. 

Dollar Index – The USD tested 107 early Thursday and has pulled back to 106.53 early Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window this week for the SPX and gold is 11/18-11/20.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 14, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX appears close to finishing a "minimal EW a-b-c correction" on the hourly chart going into the 11/14-11/18 Full Moon Timing Window. The PPI inflation report came in a little hotter than expected and gave the SPX more downside range on Thursday going into Friday's Full Moon. Our VIX volatility model remains in a "short the SPX" mode but the VIX continues to trend lower. Our bias was that the stock market would not like the PPI inflation report Thursday and the SPX would continue down in its correction into Friday's Full Moon. Ideally, we would like to see the VIX fill its large gap from last week before we try to buy the SPY or QQQ but the VIX continues to trend lower. Our target for the SPX is 5850 in the near term, but we are looking for SPX 6200 by mid-December. For gold, the 13-day Fibonacci step out from the $2801 ATH only gave us a 3-wave corrective bounce before another move down to $2641 into the 11/14-11/18 Full Moon Timing Window. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

11/14/24 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX continued to give us a mild correction through a PPI inflation report that came in hotter than expected - a low into the 11/15 Full Moon is possible. Several volatility models went short the SPX on Monday which had us looking for a 3-wave pullback(4th wave?) this week into the 11/15 Full Moon.  The VIX closed above its lower Bollinger Band again on Thursday which is a SELL signal for the SPX but the VIX continues to trend to lower lows. The SPX made a low at 5696 on 11/3 and started its post-election rally that could give us a 10% gain to SPX 6200 by early December, but first we could see a give back into the 11/15 Full Moon after the PPI inflation report. We are looking to buy 3-wave dips in the SPY or QQQ on the hourly charts. The 13-day Fibonacci step out from its $2801 ATH only gave gold a weak corrective bounce on Tuesday before rolling over to $2541 early Thursday.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The post-election rally started 11/4 at SPX 5696 and could give us a final blow off to 6200 into mid-December. But first we could see a 4th wave pullback to SPX 5850 this week.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold only gave us a weak 3-wave bounce on its 13-day Fibonacci step out early Tuesday and we rolled over to make lower lows at $2541 early Thursday. We have a 3-star critical reversal turn window from 11/15-11/18 for gold and this could give us a low.

Stocks – The SPX broke lower after a hotter-than expected PPI report and traced out a "minimal a-b-c" correction into late Thursday. We are looking to buy a 3-wave dip in the SPY on the hourly chart that is accompanied by a VIX spike above 17.

Gold – The 13-day Fibonacci step out from the 10/30 high at $2801 only gave us a weak corrective bounce on Tuesday that peaked early Wednesday before rolling over to test $2541 early Thursday. The 11/14-11/18 Full Moon Timing Window could see an important low.

Silver –  Silver hit a Fibonacci target at $29.75 early Thursday as we entered the 11/14-11/18 Full Moon Timing Window.

Bonds – The bond market found support at 115'18.

Crude Oil – Crude oil could undercut $67 as we approach the 11/15 Full Moon. 

Dollar Index – The USD tested 107 early Thursday and that pressured the PM sector..

The turn window for this week is 11/11-11/12.