All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - October 30, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: We saw a sloppy tape on Wednesday that gave back a lot of the gains made on the SPX and NDX on Tuesday. After hours, the META and MSFT earnings are bringing selling to the NQ and ES futures and that is putting us on the defensive going into Thursday. Since we were out of the office for a lot of Wednesday's session, we sold our hedge puts early and mainly stayed in cash.  Our thinking is that the tech sector may be entering an "AI digestion period" where AI capital expenditures need to get rationalized before the next killer app emerges - this is keeping us on the defensive even as the QQQ is making a B-Wave test of its July ATH. After a brief 3-wave correction, gold rallied to a new ATH at $2801 on Wednesday which is within the 3-star critical reversal time window of 10/29-10/30. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

10/30/24 (Commentary for Wednesday) We are cautious this week because the DJIA and US bonds are giving us bearish patterns and Big Tech earnings could reveal the onset of an AI digestion period that could trigger a market sell off. How the market responds to Big Tech earnings (38% of the US market reports this week) and the US labor reports (ADP and NFP) are key for this week. The earnings from MSFT and META after the close are causing selling in the NQ and ES futures overnight Wednesday. We are now on the defensive going into Thursday's session and trying to maintain cash. The DJI found resistance at its 1.618 extension off its 2022 low at 43286.76 before giving us 5-waves down on the hourly chart - the DJIA may have topped for this cycle. The NDX just made a B-Wave test of its July high before the  META and MSFT earnings. Overall, we have preferred to hold cash from now into the election instead of holding "put hedges" but this could change depending on the market tape on Thursday and Friday. Big Tech earnings this week will determine if Big Tech has entered an "AI digestion phase" where AI capital expenditures need to get rationalized before the next killer app emerges.  Gold has a 3-star critical reversal window on 10/29-10/30 and we made another ATH at $2801 on Wednesday - but the GDX is diverging badly.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The DJIA has given us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart and may have topped out for this cycle, and the QQQ gave us just a B-Wave test of its July high at  before the MSFT and META earnings hit overnight trading. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold made a new ATH at $2801 into the 3-star critical reversal window on 10/29-10/30 which argues that we could make a short-term high this week. 

Stocks – The DJIA gave us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart last week and may be topping out for this stock market cycle, and the QQQ made just a B-Wave test of its July high at 503.52 before the MSFT and META earnings are sending the futures down overnight Wednesday. We are defensive going into Thursday's session.

Gold – Gold made a new ATH at $2801 going into the 3-star critical reversal window on 10/29-10/30 -  a short-term high may be close at hand. The GDX is diverging badly against gold.

Silver –  Silver is holding at $33.79 overnight Wednesday and is lagging gold.

Bonds – The rally from 116'24 into Wednesday's high at 118'27 looks like just a 3-wave bounce and lower lows are possible. We are watching TLT closely for a confirmed reversal higher.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $66.80 overnight Wednesday. 

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 104 overnight Wednesday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 10/30-10/31.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - October 29, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The stock market is showing some bullish signs this week as we enter Big Tech earnings week. Overnight Monday, two of the three tech earnings (GOOG and AMZN) responded well to their earnings reports while AMD sold off - the NQ and ES are rallying overnight. We are just below the July ATH in the QQQ at 500 overnight. In addition, the Russell 2000 only declined in 3-waves from Monday's high. The TLT made a lower low and then reversed hard into the close which helped the IWM. Our thinking was that the tech sector may be entering an "AI digestion period" where AI capital expenditures need to get rationalized before the next killer app emerges - this could still become evident by the end of the week but there is no guarantee. After a small 4th wave triangle, gold is rallying to a new ATH at $2796 overnight Tuesday which is within the 3-star critical reversal time window of 10/29-10/30. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

10/29/24 (Commentary for Tuesday) We were cautious this week because the DJIA and US bonds are giving us bearish patterns. However, how the market responds to Big Tech earnings (38% of the US market reports this week) and the US labor reports (ADP and NFP) are also key for this week. The SPX and NDX only gave us a 3-wave decline into last week as we head into Big Tech earnings this week - so higher highs are still possible in the SPX and NDX. The DJI found resistance at its 1.618 extension off its 2022 low at 43286.76 before giving us 5-waves down on the hourly chart w- the DJIA may have topped for this cycle. Overall, we prefer to hold cash from now into the election instead of holding "put hedges". Big Tech earnings this week will determine if Big Tech has entered an "AI digestion phase" where AI capital expenditures need to get rationalized before the next killer app emerges. TLT reversed hard up around mid-day based on a good bond auction but failed to give us a "key reversal day".  Gold has a 3-star critical reversal window on 10/29-10/30 and we are seeing another ATH at $2796 overnight Tuesday.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The DJIA has given us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart and may have topped out for the cycle, but the SPX and NDX are holding up through earnings season and are close to making new ATHs. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold is making a new ATH at $2796 overnight Tuesday and the 3-star critical reversal day on 10/29-10/30 argues that we could make a short-term high this week. 

Stocks – The DJIA gave us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart last week and may be topping out for this stock market cycle, but the SPX and NDX are holding up into earnings season and could make new ATHs this week if Big Tech comes through. 

Gold – Gold is testing $2796 overnight Tuesday, but the 3-star critical reversal day on 10/29-10/30 this week argues that a short-term high is close.

Silver –  Silver is holding at $34.50 overnight Tuesday.

Bonds – Bonds tested 116'24 and reversed up on a good US Treasury auction. We are watching TLT closely for a confirmed reversal higher.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $66.72 on Tuesday and bounced. 

Dollar Index – The USD tagged 104.7 before reversing down on Tuesday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 10/30-10/31.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - October 28, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Monday was a sideways consolidation day for the SPX ad NDX but the IWM showed relative strength. This is the week of Big Tech earnings and important jobs data - the Big Tech earnings start on Tuesday after the close with reports from GOOG and AMD. The price pattern in the DJIA argue for a potential low by 10/31 - this is consistent with the year 1929 SPX analog.  The US bond market can't even make a 0.382 retracement bounce from its recent 117 low to the post Fed rate high at 127'22 - this shows that the rise in US rates may have more to go this week. Both the SPX and DJIA peaked out close to their year 2007 analog days in October on 10/17 and 10/18.  The low 5-dma of the CBOE equity put/call ratio (<0.55) argues for more pullback this week as we get some Big Tech earnings. Our thinking is that the tech sector may be entering an "AI digestion period" where AI capital expenditures need to get rationalized before the next killer app emerges - this could become evident during this week of Mag 7 earnings. The year 2007 SPX analog model forecasted strength into 10/14-10/15 before a pullback, but the SPX managed to make just one more new ATH at SPX 5878 on 10/17 - this could foreshadow SPX weakness into late October and early November. Gold is testing its R2-resistance pivot at $2770 overnight Monday - it looks likely that gold could make a new ATH this week and there is a 3-star critical reversal window on 10/29-10/30. Silver tested $34.28 overnight Monday before correcting. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

10/28/24 (Commentary for Monday) We are cautious this week because the IWM and DJIA gave us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart last week and this is a stock market SELL SIGNAL. However, the SPX and NDX only gave us a 3-wave decline into last week as we head into Big Tech earnings this week - so higher highs are still possible. The 5-dma CBOE equity put/call is also calling for a market pullback this week after printing < 0.55 on Friday. The DJIA also found resistance at its 1.618 extension off its 2022 low at 43286.76 before giving us 5-waves down on the hourly chart which is bearish. Overall, we prefer to hold cash from now into the election. Big Tech earnings are coming this week and will determine if Big Tech has entered an "AI digestion phase" where AI capital expenditures need to get rationalized before the next killer app emerges. The surge in US rates appears to have more to go as the bond market could only manage a feeble bounce after a big decline - BEARISH FOR HIGHER RATES.  Gold has a 3-star critical reversal window on 10/29-10/30 and that could be a new ATH this week above $2772.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The DJIA and IWM have given us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart which is a stock market SELL SIGNAL. The SPX and NDX also gave us a high-volume Negative Volume Reversal Day on 10/23 which is bearish. We are cautious here as our CBOE equity put/call ratio gave us a sell signal last week (<0.55). A SPX pullback into early November is possible.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold is testing $2770 overnight Monday and the 3-star critical reversal day on 10/29-10/30 argues that we could see a new ATH above $2772 this week. 

Stocks – The DJIA and IWM both gave us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart last week - this is a stock market SELL SIGNAL. Our 5-dma CBOE equity put/call ratio model gave us a sell signal (<0.55) on Friday. Our bias is for a correction into the 11/5 election, but the SPX and NDX could still make higher highs for the year.

Gold – Gold is testing $2770 overnight Monday, but the 3-star critical reversal day on 10/29-10/30 this week argues for a new ATH above $2772.

Silver –  Silver is testing $34.28 overnight Monday.

Bonds – Bonds gave us an EW 5-waves down from 127'22 after the Fed rate cut - this is BEARISH. We are only getting a feeble bounce from the recent 117 low and this argues for higher US rates this week after the new labor data is released.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $67.33 overnight Monday.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding at 104.32 overnight Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 10/30-10/31.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - October 27, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: WE ARE CAUTIOUS here as the DJIA and Russell 2000 both have apparently made an EW 5-wave decline on the hourly chart which is a market SELL SIGNAL. The price patterns argue for a potential low by 10/31 - this is consistent with the year 1929 SPX analog. This is a big week for earnings for Big Tech. The US bond market can't even make a 0.382 retracement bounce from its recent 117'25 low to the post Fed rate high at 127'22 - this shows that the rise in US rates may have more to go this week. Both the SPX and DJIA peaked out close to their year 2007 analog days in October on 10/17 and 10/18.  The low 5-dma of the CBOE equity put/call ratio argues for more pullback this week as we get some Big Tech earnings. Our thinking is that the tech sector may be entering an "AI digestion period" where AI capital expenditures need to get rationalized before the next killer app emerges - this could become evident during this week of  Big Tech earnings. The year 2007 SPX analog model forecasted strength into 10/14-10/15 before a pullback, but the SPX managed to make just one more new ATH at SPX 5878 on 10/17 - this could foreshadow SPX weakness into late October and early November. Gold is bouncing overnight Sunday and testing $2755. Silver tested $33.26 early Friday and is bouncing Sunday evening. Silver also looks 5-waves up on the hourly and daily chart. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

10/27/24 (Commentary for Sunday) CAUTION - The IWM and DJIA are giving us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart and this is a stock market SELL SIGNAL. However, Big Tech stocks are reporting earnings this week and there could be big two-way volatility. The SPX made a high at 5863 on 10/22 which is a 3-star critical reversal day for the stock market. We prefer to hold cash from now into the election. The 5-dma CBOE equity put/call is also calling for a market pullback this week after printing < 0.55 on Friday. The DJIA also found resistance at its 1.618 extension off its 2022 low at 43286.76 before giving us 5-waves down on the hourly chart which is bearish. Big Tech earnings are coming this week and will determine if Big Tech has entered an "AI digestion phase" where AI capital expenditures need to get rationalized before the next killer app emerges. The surge in US rates appears to have more to go as the bond market could only manage a feeble bounce after a big decline - BEARISH.  Gold gave us a 3-star critical reversal day on 10/7 and that correlates with the 10/10 low in gold at $2618 near the 13-day Fibonacci step out from the 9/26 ATH - gold is testing $2755 overnight Sunday.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The DJIA and IWM have given us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart which is a stock market SELL SIGNAL. The SPX ended its sideways consolidation from 10/17 on the 10/22 turn window which is also a 3-star critical reversal day. The SPX and NDX then gave us a high-volume Negative Volume Reversal Day on 10/23 which is bearish. We are cautious here as our CBOE equity put/call ratio gave us a sell signal last week (<0.55). A SPX pullback into early November is possible.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold gave us a new ATH at $2772.6 overnight 10/22 and then started a correction. Our bias is now for a correction into mid-November.

Stocks – The DJIA and IWM are both an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart - this is a stock market SELL SIGNAL. Our 5-dma CBOE equity put/call ratio model gave us a sell signal (<0.55) on Friday. Our bias is for a correction into 11/1.

Gold – Gold made a new ATH at $2772.6 overnight Tuesday before correcting into the weekend.

Silver –  Silver tested $35 overnight Tuesday and then pulled back to test $33.5 early Friday.

Bonds – Bonds gave us an EW 5-waves down from 127'22 after the Fed rate cut - this is BEARISH. We are only getting a feeble bounce from the recent 117'25 low and this argues for higher US rates this week.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $68 overnight Sunday.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing multi-week highs at 104.57 overnight Sunday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 10/30-10/31.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - October 24, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: WE ARE CAUTIOUS here as the DJIA and Russell 2000 both have apparently made an EW 5-wave decline on the hourly chart which is a market SELL SIGNAL. Also, the US bond market can't even make a 0.382 retracement bounce from its recent 117'25 low to the post Fed rate high at 127'22 - this shows that the rise in US rates may have more to go. Both the SPX and DJIA peaked out close to their year 2007 analog days in October. Our work allowed for a new ATH in the SPX on Wednesday but the probe to 5863 late Tuesday was the turn window high. Wednesday gave us decisive Negative Volume Reversal days in the SPX and NDX. The low 5-dma of the CBOE equity put/call ratio argued for a pullback to start soon and we got that Wednesday with a broad-based selloff. Our bias is for more decline into early November as the SPX needs to rebalance the fear side of the equation. Our thinking is that the tech sector may be entering an "AI digestion period" where AI capital expenditures need to get rationalized before the next killer app emerges - this could become evident during the week of 10/28 when we get Big Tech earnings. The year 2007 SPX analog model forecasted strength into 10/14-10/15 before a pullback, but the SPX managed to make just one more new ATH at SPX 5878 on 10/17 - this could foreshadow SPX weakness into late October and early November. Gold tested $2772.5 overnight Tuesday and continues to correct into Friday. Silver tested $35.07 overnight Tuesday which was a monthly supply zone and corrected to test $33.50 on Thursday. Silver also looks 5-waves up on the hourly and daily chart. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

10/24/24 (Commentary for Thursday) CAUTION - The IWM and DJIA are giving us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart and this is a stock market SELL SIGNAL. The SPX made a high at 5863 on Tuesday which is a 3-star critical reversal day for the stock market. We prefer to hold cash from now into the election. The 5-dma CBOE equity put/call also called for a market pullback last week when it touched 0.51. The DJIA also found resistance at its 1.618 extension off its 2022 low at 43286.76 before giving us 5-waves down which is bearish. Big Tech earnings are coming next week and will determine if Big Tech has entered an "AI digestion phase" where AI capital expenditures need to get rationalized before the next killer app emerges. The surge in US rates appears to have more to go as the bond market can only give us feeble bounces after a big decline - BEARISH.  Gold gave us a 3-star critical reversal day on 10/7 and that correlates with the 10/10 low in gold at $2618 near the 13-day Fibonacci step out from the 9/26 ATH - gold made an overnight high at $2772.6  overnight Tuesday before correcting into Friday.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The DJIA and IWM have given us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart which is a stock market SELL SIGNAL. The SPX ended its sideways consolidation from 10/17 on the 10/22 turn window which is also a 3-star critical reversal day. The SPX and NDX then gave us a high-volume Negative Volume Reversal Day on Wednesday which is bearish. We are cautious here as our CBOE equity put/call ratio gave us a sell signal last week. A SPX pullback into early November is possible.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold gave us a new ATH at $2772.6 overnight Tuesday and then started a correction into Friday. Our bias is now for a correction into mid-November.

Stocks – The DJIA and IWM are both an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart - this is a stock market SELL SIGNAL. Our CBOE equity put/call ratio model gave us a sell signal since last week. Our bias is for a correction into early November.

Gold – Gold made a new ATH at $2772.6 overnight Tuesday before correcting into Friday.

Silver –  Silver tested $35 overnight Tuesday and then pulled back to test $33.5 on Thursday.

Bonds – Bonds gave us an EW 5-waves down from 127'22 after the Fed rate cut - this is BEARISH. We are only getting a feeble bounce from the recent 117'25 low and this argues for higher US rates in the short term.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is holding at $70.12 overnight Thursday.

Dollar Index – The USD tested multi-week highs at 104.57 on Wednesday and then started a pullback.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 10/21-10/22.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - October 23, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX consolidated from early 10/17 until late Tuesday and then broke down hard on Wednesday. The Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turn window in our work and it came in as a high. With rising US rates, the NYSE breadth has been poor with money flowing back into Big Tech. Our work allowed for a new ATH in the SPX on Wednesday but the probe to 5863 late Tuesday was as high as we could get. The low 5-dma of the CBOE equity put/call ratio argued for a pullback to start soon and we got that Wednesday with a broad-based selloff. The low CBOE equity put/call ratios the past week has been calling for a decline. Our bias is for more decline into early November as the SPX needs to rebalance the fear side of the equation. Our thinking is that the tech sector may be entering an "AI digestion period" where AI capital expenditures need to get rationalized before the next killer app emerges - this could become evident during the week of 10/28 when we get Big Tech earnings. The year 2007 SPX analog model forecasted strength into 10/14-10/15 before a pullback, but the SPX managed to make just one more new ATH at SPX 5878 on 10/17 - this could foreshadow SPX weakness into late October and early November. Gold tested $2772.5 overnight Tuesday and also corrected hard on Wednesday with the highest volume in two weeks. Silver tested $35.07 overnight Tuesday which was a monthly supply zone. Silver also looked 5-waves up on the hourly and daily chart. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

10/23/24 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX and NDX both gapped lower early Wednesday as rising US rates and bad market breadth finally caught up with the stock market. The 5-dma CBOE equity put/call also called for a market pullback last week when it touched 0.51. The SPX sideways consolidation from 10/17 to late Tuesday came to an end at 5863. The DJIA also found resistance at its 1.618 extension off its 2022 low - two consecutive closes above 43289.76 are needed for a more bullish outcome into November than the year 2007 DJIA analog stock model predicts. Big Tech earnings are coming next week and will determine if Big Tech has entered an "AI digestion phase" where AI capital expenditures need to get rationalized before the next killer app emerges. We take the strong NFP jobs report on 10/4 with a "big grain of political salt" going into the Presidential election, so we believe that rising rates here are giving us a false signal of a "strong economy". In our view, large traders have mistakenly pushed up US rates on a false signal of strength in the economy. Gold gave us a 3-star critical reversal day on 10/7 and that correlates with the 10/10 low in gold at $2618 near the 13-day Fibonacci step out from the 9/26 ATH - gold made an overnight high at $2772.6  overnight Tuesday before correcting.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX ended its sideways consolidation from 10/17 into late Tuesday and then corrected hard early Wednesday.  We are cautious here as our CBOE equity put/call ratio was giving us a sell signal. A SPX pullback into early November is possible.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold gave us a new ATH at $2772.6 overnight Tuesday and then started a correction. Our bias is now for a correction into mid-November.

Stocks – The SPX and NDX ended their consolidations late Tuesday before turning down hard on Wednesday. Our CBOE equity put/call ratio model has been giving us a sell signal since last week. Our bias is for a pullback into early November.

Gold – Gold made a new ATH at $2772.6 overnight Tuesday before correcting hard on Wednesday.

Silver –  Silver tested $35 overnight Tuesday and then started correcting.

Bonds – Bonds tested 117'25 after 5-waves down on the hourly chart.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is holding at $71.54 overnight Wednesday.

Dollar Index – The USD tested multi-week highs at 104.57 on Wednesday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 10/21-10/22.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - October 22, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX may have finished a small 4th wave correction today at 5821.27 in Tuesday's turn window - the SPX could now advance higher to a new ATH above 5878 on Wednesday. However, the low 5-dma of the CBOE equity put/call ratio argues for a pullback to start soon which could run into the election. Rising rates continued to dominate and the Russell 2000 stocks remained under pressure while the Big Tech tocks got a bid. Our Option Premium Ratio tagged 0.56 and this showed continued put buying. The IWM (Russell 2000) completed a 5-wave move higher on Monday before pulling back in an apparent EW a-b-c correction into this morning. Money flowed back into Big Tech on Tuesday as we approach Big Tech earnings next week. Our thinking is that the tech sector may be entering an "AI digestion period" where AI capital expenditures need to get rationalized before the next killer app emerges - this could become evident during the week of 10/28 when we get Big Tech earnings. The year 2007 SPX analog model forecasted strength into 10/14-10/15 before a pullback, but the SPX continued to make another new ATH on the 10/17 Full Moon at 5878.46 which is bullish for more rally after 10/22. Gold tested $2765 on Tuesday evening and has made two consecutive closes above its 1.618 extension target at $2735 which is short-term bullish. Silver tested $35 on Tuesday but looks 5-waves up on the hourly chart. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

10/22/24 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX and NDX both opened lower and the SPX appears to have finished a small 4th wave correction before rebounding into the close. We got our reversal up on  Tuesday in the SPX which could make a new ATH on Wednesday. The DJIA is finding resistance at its 1.618 extension off its 2022 low - two consecutive closes above 43289.76 are needed for a more bullish outcome into November than the year 2007 DJIA analog stock model predicts. Big Tech earnings are coming next week and will determine if Big Tech has entered an "AI digestion phase" where AI capital expenditures need to get rationalized before the next killer app emerges. We take the strong NFP jobs report on 10/4 with a "big grain of political salt" going into the Presidential election, so we believe that rising rates here are giving us a false signal of a "strong economy". In our view, large traders have mistakenly pushed up US rates on a false signal of strength in the economy. Gold gave us a 3-star critical reversal day on 10/7 and that correlates with the 10/10 low in gold at $2618 near the 13-day Fibonacci step out from the 9/26 ATH - gold is trading at $2765 (above our $2735 target) overnight Tuesday.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX is giving us a quick 3-wave correction on 10/20-10/21 and we expect a new ATH high in the SPX by 10/22-10/23.  The SPX made a new ATH on the 10/17 Full moon and that is a bullish break of the year 2007 SPX analog model. We are cautious that Big Tech stocks are entering an AI digestion period.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold gave us just a 3-wave correction into 10/10 and started a rally that is testing $2748 overnight Monday in the 10/21-10/22 turn window. Two consecutive closes above $2735 are needed to argue for more short-term rally.

Stocks – The SPX made a new ATH at 5878 on the 10/17 and started a sideways consolidation that should end on 10/22 - this argues for higher highs into 10/22-10/23, the Tuesday after a monthly option expiration. 

Gold – Gold only pulled back in 3-waves into 10/10 and then rallied as many gold services bought the bounce. Gold gave us two consecutive daily closes above $2735 and that argues for more short-term gains.

Silver –  Silver tested $35 on Tuesday but appears to be 5-waves up on the hourly chart.

Bonds – Bonds are testing 118 overnight Tuesday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is holding at $71.62 overnight Tuesday.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing multi-week highs at 104.15 overnight Tuesday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 10/21-10/22.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - October 21, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX continued its sideways consolidation from early Thursday on Monday which we consider a small 4th wave correction. Overall today, rising rates dominated and the Russell 2000 stocks were under pressure while the Big Tech tocks got a bid. Our bias is for a reversal up on Tuesday from its small coil formation on the hourly chart. Our Option Premium Ratio tagged 0.51 again and this showed a jump in put buying which is short-term bullish. The IWM (Russell 2000) completed a 5-wave move higher on Monday before pulling back. The tech sector may be entering an "AI digestion period" where AI capital expenditures need to get rationalized before the next killer app emerges - this could become evident during the week of 10/28 when we get Big Tech earnings. The year 2007 SPX analog model forecasted strength into 10/14-10/15 before a pullback, but the SPX continued to make another new ATH on the 10/17 Full Moon at 5878.46 which is bullish for more rally after 10/22. Gold tagged $2755 on Monday and started a small 3-wave correction and silver rallied to $34.48, a new high for the year. The PM sector soared into the 10/17-10/18 Full Moon Timing Window. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

10/21/24 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX and NDX continued their tight-range consolidations from early Thursday which resemble a small coil. Our bias is for a reversal up by Tuesday in the SPX which could make a new ATH. The DJIA is very close to its 1.618 extension off its 2022 low - two consecutive closes above 43289.76 would argue for a more bullish outcome into November than the year 2007 DJIA analog stock model predicted. Big Tech earnings are coming in the week of Oct 28 for Q3 and will determine if Big Tech has entered an "AI digestion phase" where AI capital expenditures need to get rationalized before the next killer app emerges. We take the strong NFP jobs report on 10/4 with a "big grain of political salt" going into the Presidential election, so we believe that rising rates here are giving us a false signal of a "strong economy". In our view, large traders have mistakenly pushed up US rates on a false signal of strength in the economy. Gold gave us a 3-star critical reversal day on 10/7 and that correlates with the 10/10 low in gold at $2618 near the 13-day Fibonacci step out from the 9/26 ATH - gold is trading at $2748 (above our $2735 target) overnight Monday.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX is giving us a quick 3-wave correction on 10/20-10/21 and we expect a new ATH high in the SPX by 10/22-10/23.  The SPX made a new ATH on the 10/17 Full moon and that is a bullish break of the year 2007 SPX analog model. We are cautious that Big Tech stocks are entering an AI digestion period.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold gave us just a 3-wave correction into 10/10 and started a rally that is testing $2748 overnight Monday in the 10/21-10/22 turn window. Two consecutive closes above $2735 are needed to argue for more short-term rally.

Stocks – The SPX made a new ATH at 5878 on the 10/17 and started a sideways consolidation that should end on 10/22 - this argues for higher highs into 10/22-10/23, the Tuesday after a monthly option expiration. 

Gold – Gold only pulled back in 3-waves into 10/10 and then rallied as many gold services bought the bounce. Gold gave us two consecutive daily closes above $2735 and that argues for more short-term gains.

Silver –  Silver tested $35 on Tuesday but appears to be 5-waves up on the hourly chart..

Bonds – Bonds are testing 118 overnight Tuesday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is holding at $71.62 overnight Tuesday.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 103.86 overnight Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 10/21-10/22.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - October 20, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX corrected sideways into monthly option expiration but the DJIA managed a new ATH at 43325.09 on Friday. Our bias is for a new SPX ATH by 10/22 before a correction into early November. Our Option Premium Ratio tested 0.34 again and this argues for a  SPX correction. The IWM (Russell 2000) also made multi-week highs going into Friday. Our bias now is that the SPX could make higher highs into 10/22, the Tuesday after a monthly expiration. The tech sector may be entering an "AI digestion period" where AI capital expenditures need to get rationalized before the next killer app emerges - this could become evident during the week of 10/28 when we get Big Tech earnings. The year 2007 SPX analog model forecasted strength into 10/14-10/15 before a pullback, but the SPX continued to make another new ATH on the 10/17 Full Moon at 5878.46 which is bullish for more rally into 10/22. Gold rallied to a new ATH at $2747 Sunday evening and silver rallied to $34.35, a new high for the year. The PM sector soared into the 10/17-10/18 Full Moon Timing Window. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

10/20/24 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX made a new ATH at 5878.46 on the 10/17 Full Moon and the DJIA made a new ATH at 43325.09 Friday. The DJIA is very close to its 1.618 extension off its 2022 low - two consecutive closes above 43289.76 would argue for a more bullish outcome into November than the year 2007 DJIA analog stock model. Big Tech earnings are coming in the week of Oct 28 for Q3 and will determine if Big Tech has entered an "AI digestion phase" where AI capital expenditures need to get rationalized before the next killer app emerges. However, the stock market lacks "a wall of worry" here and the CBOE put/call ratios look too low here for a sustained rally - the Option Premium Ratio did print 0.34 again on Friday and that could be a SELL SIGNAL. However, a new ATH into 10/22, the Tuesday after a monthly expiration, are still possible.  We take the strong NFP jobs report on 10/4 with a "big grain of political salt" going into the Presidential election, so we believe that it is giving a false signal of a "strong economy". In our view, large traders have mistakenly pushed up US rates on a false signal of strength in the economy. Gold gave us a 3-star critical reversal day on 10/7 and that correlates with the 10/10 low in gold at $2618 near the 13-day Fibonacci step out from the 9/26 ATH - gold is trading at $2742 (above our $2735 target) overnight Sunday.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX gave us just a quick 3-wave correction on 10/14-10/15 and then proceeded to make a new ATH at 5878 on Thursday.  The SPX made a new ATH on the 10/17 Full moon and that is a bullish break of the year 2007 SPX analog model. We are cautious that Big Tech stocks are entering an AI digestion period.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold gave us just a 3-wave correction into 10/10 and started a rally that is testing $2742 overnight Sunday in the Full Moon Timing Window. Two consecutive closes above $2735 are needed to argue for more short-term rally.

Stocks – The SPX made a new ATH at 5878 on the 10/17 and appears to be bullishly breaking the year 2007 SPX analog model - this argues for higher highs into 10/22, the Tuesday after a monthly option expiration. 

Gold – Gold only pulled back in 3-waves into 10/10 and then rallied as many gold services bought the bounce. Gold needs two consecutive closed above $2735 to argue for more short-term momentum gains.

Silver –  Silver broke above $34 Friday in the Full Moon Timing Window.

Bonds – Bonds are testing 118'27 early Monday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $69.40 early Monday.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 103.84 Thursday early Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 10/21-10/22.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - October 17, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX made a new ATH at 5878.46 and looks like it could rally past the monthly option expiration tomorrow. The IWM (Russell 2000) also made multi-week highs going into Friday. Our bias now is that the SPX could make higher highs into 10/22, the Tuesday after a monthly expiration. Also, since the SPX made a new ATH on today's Full Moon, that implies that we could see another new ATH by the 11/1 New Moon if the tech sector manages to navigate past the big tech earnings week on 10/28. However, the tech sector may be entering an "AI digestion period" where AI capital expenditures need to get rationalized before the next killer app emerges. Our Option Premium Ratio tested the mid-July low at 0.30 on Monday and that argued for some kind of SPX pullback to start in the 10/14-10/15 turn window, but that turned out to be just a minor 3-wave correction. The year 2007 SPX analog model forecasted strength into Monday/Tuesday before a pullback, but the SPX continued to make another new ATH today at 5878.46 which is bullish for more rally into October. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

10/17/24 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX made a new ATH at 5878.46 and the DJIA made a new ATH at 43289.76 on the Wednesday Full Moon. The DJIA is very close to its 1.618 extension off its 2022 low and this is something to watch this week for the year 2007 DJIA market analog. Two consecutive closes above 43289.76 would argue for a more bullish outcome into November for this analog stock model. Big Tech earnings are coming in the week of Oct 28 for Q3 and will determine if Big Tech has entered an "AI digestion phase" where AI capital expenditures need to get rationalized before the next killer app emerges. However, this market lacks "a wall of worry" here and the CBOE put/call ratios look too low here for a sustained rally - the Option Premium Ratio did test the lows of mid-July on Monday and that also is notable. However, higher SPX highs into 10/22, the Tuesday after a monthly expiration, are still possible.  We take the strong NFP jobs report on 10/4 with a "big grain of political salt" going into the Presidential election, so we believe that it is giving a false signal of a "strong economy". In our view, large traders have mistakenly pushed up US rates on a false signal of strength in the economy. Gold gave us a 3-star critical reversal day on 10/7 and that correlates with the 10/10 low in gold at $2618 near the 13-day Fibonacci step out from the 9/26 ATH - we favor a test of our 1.618 extension target at $2735  soon.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX appears to have given us just a quick 3-wave correction on Monday/Tuesday.  The SPX made a new ATH on the 10/17 Full moon and that is a bullish break of the year 2007 SPX analog model. We are cautious that Big Tech stocks are entering an AI digestion period.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold gave us just a 3-wave correction into 10/10 and started a bounce that several gold services jumped on. A test of $2735 looks likely into the 10/17-10/18 Full Moon Timing Window.

Stocks – The SPX made a new ATH at 5878 on the 10/17 and appears to be bullishly breaking the year 2007 SPX analog model - this argues for higher highs into 10/22, the Tuesday after a monthly option expiration. 

Gold – Gold only pulled back in 3-waves into 10/10 and then rallied as many gold services bought the bounce. Gold is starting a momentum move higher that could test our target of $2735 in the 10/17-10/18 Full Moon Timing Window.

Silver –  Silver gave us just a 3-wave pullback into Thursday and is moving up overnight to test the weekly highs at $32.36.

Bonds – Bonds tested 119'17 overnight Thursday and is trying to bounce.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $68 into the 10/17-10/18 Full Moon Timing Window.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 103.82 Thursday before correcting.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 10/17-10/18 Full Moon Timing Window.