Folks,
Market Observations for the Week: The SPX made an ATH at 5767 early Thursday and started a correction that could run into early Monday. However, the CBOE put/call ratio closed low again at 0.76 and the $TRIN closed at 0.77 which argues for caution here. Still, the new ATHs in the SPX, DJIA, and NYSE composite post-Fed rate cut last week argue that the 2007 year analog stock market model is working for this Fall and that higher highs in the SPX are possible into October 11-15 before a reversal down. However, if the TRIN-5 tests 4.00 (overbought), we will issue a SELL signal and turn defensive. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.
9/29/24 (Commentary for Sunday) Micron earnings powered up AI plays on Thursday and the QQQ filled its July gap before declining into the weekend. The QQQ appears to be declining in 3-waves into the 10/1-10/3 New Moon Timing Window which implies that a higher high above 494 will be seen soon. The SPX made a new ATH at 5767 early Thursday and the Chinese stocks(FXI) roared as David Tepper stepped in to "buy anything Chinese". The year 2007 SPX analog model appears to be working here and allows for a new SPX ATH into October 11 above 5767 - however, if our TRIN-5 model tests 4.00(overbought), we will issue a SELL SIGNAL for the SPX. Our bias allows for the possibility of some indices making a new ATH into October and the IWM could play catch up here. Gold made a new ATH at $2708 pre-market Thursday and appears to be doing a 3-wave correction into the 10/1-10/3 New Moon Timing window.
Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX finished a rising EW 5-waves up from 5402 and made a new ATH at 5767 early Thursday - just a 3-wave correction into the 10/2 New Moon could lead to a higher high into 10/11. The year 2007 SPX analog model made higher SPX highs into 10/11.
Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold made a new ATH at $2708.6 early Thursday and started a correction - into the 10/1-10/3 New moon Timing Window. We have a target of $2735 for gold into October.
Stocks – The SPX made a new ATH at 5767 early Thursday but then started a 3-wave correction that could extend into the 10/1-10/3 New Moon Timing Window. The year 2007 SPX analog model argues for higher highs into 10/11. We will issue a SELL SIGNAL if our TRIN-5 goes overbought at 4.00.
Gold – Gold made a new ATH at $2708.6 pre-market Thursday and is doing an EW 3- wave correction into the 10/2 New Moon.
Silver – Silver made a new yearly high at $33.02 pre-market Thursday and also started a correction into 10/1-10/2.
Bonds – Bonds are holding 124'29 Sunday evening.
Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $68.34 Sunday evening.
Dollar Index – The USD is testing 100.20 Sunday evening which shoes that the trend remains down.
TURNING POINT DAY
The turn window for this week is 10/1-10/3, the New Moon Timing Window.
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