Folks,
Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us 5-waves up from 9/6 which peaked at 5733.57 on Thursday after the Fed rate cut. The SPX then pulled pack into Friday and bounced correctively. Our bias is for another leg down into the 9/23-9/24 turn window before a reversal higher. The SPX appears to be tracing out the year 2007 SPX analog which rallied into 10/11. The new ATHs in the SPX, DJIA, and NYSE composite post-Fed rate cut last week argue that the 2007 year analog stock market model is in play and that higher highs are possible into October before a reversal down . Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.
9/22/24 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX appears to have finished 5-waves up from 9/6 into 5733.57 and started an EW a-b-c correction into Friday which could end in the 9/23-9/24 turn window. The Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turn window in our work and it could mark the SPX low of the coming week. The SPX also rallied up in an EW 5-waves from its 8/5 low and made a new ATH at 5733 in last week's 9/16-9/19 Full Moon Timing Window. The year 2007 SPX analog model appears to be working here and allows for a possible new SPX ATH into October above 5733. Our bias allows for the possibility of some indices making a new ATH into October and the IWM could play catch up here. Gold is making a new ATH at $2654 overnight Sunday.
Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) After the 50 bps Fed rate cut, the SPX finished an EW 5-waves up from the 9/6 low and made a new ATH at 5733.57 before pulling back into Friday. Just a corrective pullback into the 9/23-9/24 turn window would argue for a higher high above 5733 going into October. The year 2007 SPX analog model made higher highs into 10/11.
Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold is spiking to a new ATH at $2654 overnight Sunday - we are completing a 5-wave rally from 9/11.
Stocks – The E-mini may be just pulling back in an EW a-b-c correction into 9/23-9/24.
Gold – Gold is making a new ATH at $2654 overnight Sunday.
Silver – Silver is holding at $31.28 overnight Sunday.
Bonds – Bonds are holding 124'24 overnight Sunday.
Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $71.51 overnight Sunday.
Dollar Index – The USD is holding 100.8 overnight Sunday.
TURNING POINT DAY
The turn window for this week is 9/23-9/24.
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