Folks,
Market Observations for the Week: Micron earnings that confirmed an ongoing AI bubble boosted both the US and Chinese markets today and the SPX made another new ATH at SPX 5767. However, the CBOE put/call ratio closed low again at 0.77 and the $TRIN closed at 0.81 which argues for caution here. Still, the new ATHs in the SPX, DJIA, and NYSE composite post-Fed rate cut last week argue that the 2007 year analog stock market model is working for this Fall and that higher highs in the SPX are possible into October 11-15 before a reversal down. However, if the TRIN-5 tests 4.00 (overbought), we will issue a SELL signal and turn defensive. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.
9/26/24 (Commentary for Thursday) Micron earnings powered up AI plays on Thursday and the QQQ filled its July gap. The SPX made a new ATH at 5767 and the Chinese stocks(FXI) roared as David Tepper stepped in to "buy anything Chinese". The year 2007 SPX analog model appears to be working here and allows for a new SPX ATH into October above 5767 - however, if our TRIN-5 model tests 4.00(overbought), we will issue a SELL SIGNAL for the SPX. Our bias allows for the possibility of some indices making a new ATH into October and the IWM could play catch up here. Gold made a new ATH at $2708 pre-market Thursday and we have a target price at $2735.
Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX finished a rising EW 5-waves up from 5402 and made a new ATH at 5767 early Thursday. Strong Micron earnings after the market on 9/5 reconfirmed the AI bubble and the QQQ filled in its July gap. The year 2007 SPX analog model made higher SPX highs into 10/11.
Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold made a new ATH at $2708.6 early Thursday and started a correction - we have a near-term target of $2735. Gold could make a new ATH going into Monday.
Stocks – The SPX made a new ATH at 5767 on Thursday and finished up a wedgy-looking 5-waves higher. The year 2007 SPX analog model argues for higher highs into 10/11. We will issue a SELL SIGNAL if our TRIN-5 goes overbought at 4.00.
Gold – Gold made a new ATH at $2708.6 pre-market Thursday and started a correction - we have a near-term target of $2735.
Silver – Silver made a new yearly high at $33.02 pre-market Thursday and started a correction.
Bonds – Bonds are testing 124'21 after a benign PCE inflation report.
Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $67.98 early Friday.
Dollar Index – The USD closed below 100.50 again which shoes that the trend remains down.
TURNING POINT DAY
The turn window for this week is 9/23-9/24.
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