Folks,
Market Observations for the Week: The DJIA, SPX, SPXEX and NYSE all made new intra-day ATHs today and the NYSE cumulative Advance/Decline line also made a new high. We are looking for the stock market to make an important high in the 9/16-9/18 Full moon Timing Window which includes a Full Moon, a lunar eclipse at perigee and a Fed rate cut decision on Wednesday. Since the pullback into 8/5 was only 3-waves for the SPX, NDX and DJIA, that allowed for this rally to be a 5th wave in some indices and new ATHs are possible going into the 9/16-9/18 Full Moon Timing Window like we saw today in the DJIA. The new ATH in the DJIA on Monday argued that the 2007 year analog stock market model is in effect. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.
9/17/24 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX has given us 7 higher days in a row and the DJIA, SPX, SPXEW, and the NYSE all gave us higher for the year on Tuesday as we approach the FOMC rate cut decision on Wednesday. It's a good time to raise your trading stops and protect your profits after this extended rally from last week. The SPX rallied up in an EW 5-waves from its 8/5 low and made a new ATH in today's 9/16-9/18 turn window but the NDX is still lagging. The SPX reversed up impulsively from its 34-day step out on 9/6-9/9 and may be in a 3rd wave of 5 higher as we approach the 9/18 Fed rate cut decision. The year 2007 SPX analog model appears to be working here and allows for a possible new SPX ATH into October. Our bias allowed for the possibility of some indices making a new ATH into October as we saw with the new ATH today in several indices. The QQQ decline from 8/22 to 9/6 may have been just 3-wave, so the current rally may also be a 3rd wave of wave 5 from the 8/5 low. The Presidential election year and the year SPX 2007 analog model still argues for the possibility of a new ATH in several induces going into October. We need to allow for the possibility of new ATHs in the IWM and NDX going into October. Gold pulled back in 3-waves and tested $2587 on Tuesday and is only giving us a 3-wave bounce into Wednesday.
Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) After reversing up after its 34-day Fibonacci step out from 8/5 on 9/6-9/9, the SPX joined the DJIA, SPXEW and NYSE in making new ATHs for the year. The 2007 analog stock market model looks good for higher SPX highs into October.
Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold declined to $2587 in 3-waves Tuesday night - we are doing an EW a-b-c correction into the 9/16-9/18 turn window.
Stocks – The DJIA gave us an ATH on Monday and the SPX made an ATH on Tuesday after 5-waves higher from 8/5 - this argues for at least a 3-wave correction after the Fed rate cut decision.
Gold – Gold made a new ATH Sunday night at $2617 and started a 3-wave correction that tested $2587 on Tuesday - lower lows are possible after the Fed rate cut decision.
Silver – Silver rallied big after the PPI report and tested $31.46 Sunday night - we started a 3-wave correction that tested $30.70 on Tuesday.
Bonds – Bonds are testing its S2-support pivot at 126'09 early Wednesday.
Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $71.87 on Tuesday's Full Moon and started a pullback into Wednesday.
Dollar Index – The USD is holding 101 early Wednesday.
TURNING POINT DAY
The turn window for this week is 9/16-9/18.
Comments
You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.