All Star Market Timing

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - September 29, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX made an ATH at 5767 early Thursday and started a correction that could run into early Monday. However, the CBOE put/call ratio closed low again at 0.76 and the $TRIN closed at 0.77 which argues for caution here. Still,  the new ATHs in the SPX, DJIA, and NYSE composite post-Fed rate cut last week argue that the 2007 year analog stock market model is working for this Fall and that higher highs in the SPX are possible into October 11-15 before a reversal down. However, if the TRIN-5 tests 4.00 (overbought), we will issue a SELL signal and turn defensive. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

9/29/24 (Commentary for Sunday)  Micron earnings powered up AI plays on Thursday and the QQQ filled its July gap before declining into the weekend. The QQQ appears to be declining in 3-waves into the 10/1-10/3 New Moon Timing Window which implies that a higher high above 494 will be seen soon. The SPX made a new ATH at 5767 early Thursday and the Chinese stocks(FXI) roared as David Tepper stepped in to "buy anything Chinese". The year 2007 SPX analog model appears to be working here and allows for a new SPX ATH into October 11 above 5767 - however, if our TRIN-5 model tests 4.00(overbought), we will issue a SELL SIGNAL for the SPX. Our bias allows for the possibility of some indices making a new ATH into October and the IWM could play catch up here. Gold made a new ATH at $2708 pre-market Thursday and appears to be doing a 3-wave correction into the 10/1-10/3 New Moon Timing window.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX finished a rising EW 5-waves up from 5402 and made a new ATH at 5767 early Thursday - just a 3-wave correction into the 10/2 New Moon could lead to a higher high into 10/11. The year 2007 SPX analog model made higher SPX highs into 10/11.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold made a new ATH at $2708.6 early Thursday and started a correction - into the 10/1-10/3 New moon Timing Window. We have a target of $2735 for gold into October.

Stocks – The SPX made a new ATH at 5767 early Thursday but then started a 3-wave correction that could extend into the 10/1-10/3 New Moon Timing Window. The year 2007 SPX analog model argues for higher highs into 10/11. We will issue a SELL SIGNAL if our TRIN-5 goes overbought at 4.00.

Gold – Gold made a new ATH at $2708.6 pre-market Thursday and is doing an EW 3- wave correction into the 10/2 New Moon.

Silver –  Silver made a new yearly high at $33.02 pre-market Thursday and also started a correction into 10/1-10/2.

Bonds – Bonds are holding 124'29 Sunday evening. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $68.34 Sunday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 100.20 Sunday evening which shoes that the trend remains down.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 10/1-10/3, the New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 26, 2024, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Micron earnings that confirmed an ongoing AI bubble boosted both the US and Chinese markets today and the SPX made another new ATH at SPX 5767. However, the CBOE put/call ratio closed low again at 0.77 and the $TRIN closed at 0.81 which argues for caution here. Still,  the new ATHs in the SPX, DJIA, and NYSE composite post-Fed rate cut last week argue that the 2007 year analog stock market model is working for this Fall and that higher highs in the SPX are possible into October 11-15 before a reversal down. However, if the TRIN-5 tests 4.00 (overbought), we will issue a SELL signal and turn defensive. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

9/26/24 (Commentary for Thursday)  Micron earnings powered up AI plays on Thursday and the QQQ filled its July gap. The SPX made a new ATH at 5767 and the Chinese stocks(FXI) roared as David Tepper stepped in to "buy anything Chinese". The year 2007 SPX analog model appears to be working here and allows for a new SPX ATH into October above 5767 - however, if our TRIN-5 model tests 4.00(overbought), we will issue a SELL SIGNAL for the SPX. Our bias allows for the possibility of some indices making a new ATH into October and the IWM could play catch up here. Gold made a new ATH at $2708 pre-market Thursday and we have a target price at $2735.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX finished a rising EW 5-waves up from 5402 and made a new ATH at 5767 early Thursday. Strong Micron earnings after the market on 9/5 reconfirmed the AI bubble and the QQQ filled in its July gap. The year 2007 SPX analog model made higher SPX highs into 10/11.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold made a new ATH at $2708.6 early Thursday and started a correction - we have a near-term target of $2735. Gold could make a new ATH going into Monday.

Stocks – The SPX made a new ATH at 5767 on Thursday and finished up a wedgy-looking 5-waves higher. The year 2007 SPX analog model argues for higher highs into 10/11. We will issue a SELL SIGNAL if our TRIN-5 goes overbought at 4.00.

Gold – Gold made a new ATH at $2708.6 pre-market Thursday and started a correction - we have a near-term target of $2735.

Silver –  Silver made a new yearly high at $33.02 pre-market Thursday and started a correction.

Bonds – Bonds are testing 124'21 after a benign PCE inflation report. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $67.98 early Friday.

Dollar Index – The USD closed below 100.50 again which shoes that the trend remains down.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 9/23-9/24.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 25, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: After making another ATH at 5741, the SPX corrected into mid-day as Mars conjuncted with the Moon. Overnight, however, the ES and FXI are rallying hard despite the stronger USD and we may see a gap up open early Thursday on the SPX. After a correction early Wednesday, the ES is rebounding overnight to a new ATH. The SPX appears to be tracking the year 2007 SPX analog which rallied into 10/11. The new ATHs in the SPX, DJIA, and NYSE composite post-Fed rate cut last week argue that the 2007 year analog stock market model appears to be working and that higher highs in the SPX are possible into October 11-15 before a reversal down . Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

9/25/24 (Commentary for Wednesday)  Micron earnings post-market Wednesday are rallying the NQ and ES futures overnight. The SPX looks to make a gap-up open on Thursday. The year 2007 SPX analog model appears to be working here and allows for a new SPX ATH into October above 5733. Our bias allows for the possibility of some indices making a new ATH into October and the IWM could play catch up here. Gold is making a new ATH at $2708 pre-market Thursday.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  After the 50 bps Fed rate cut, the SPX finished an EW 5-waves up from the 9/6 low and made a new ATH at 5736 on Tuesday. Strong Micron earnings after the market on 9/5 is reconfirming the AI bubble  The year 2007 SPX analog model made higher SPX highs into 10/11.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold is spiking to a new ATH at $2694.6 overnight Tuesday - we continue to sub-divide higher after the Fed rate cut. 

Stocks – The SPX looks to make a gap-up open early Thursday above 5733. The year 2007 SPX analog model argues for higher highs into 10/11.

Gold – Gold made a new ATH at $2708.6 pre-market Thursday.

Silver –  Silver made a new yearly high at $33.02 pre-market Thursday.

Bonds – Bonds are testing 123'23 early Thursday. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $67 early Thursday.

Dollar Index – The USD closed above 100.50 which is positive for the short-term trend.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 9/23-9/24.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 24, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX tested the ATH from 9/19 but on much lighter volume and that argues for a move back down to test 5400. The Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turn window in our work and we may have seen a high. On the bullish side, the USD closed below 100.5 and that argues for lower lows which could actually boost the SPX and precious metals. The SPX appears to be tracking the year 2007 SPX analog which rallied into 10/11. The new ATHs in the SPX, DJIA, and NYSE composite post-Fed rate cut last week argue that the 2007 year analog stock market model appears to be working and that higher highs in the SPX are possible into October before a reversal down . Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

9/24/24 (Commentary for Tuesday)  The SPX made 5-waves up from 9/6 into 5736 and tested the ATH on much smaller volume which is a caution for a correction back to 5400 in the next month. On the other hand, the USD closed below 100.5 which argues for more blow off into the SPX and PM sectors. The Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turn window in our work and we could be marking a high this week. The year 2007 SPX analog model appears to be working here and allows for a possible new SPX ATH into October above 5733. Our bias allows for the possibility of some indices making a new ATH into October and the IWM could play catch up here. Gold is making a new ATH at $2695.6 overnight Tuesday.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  After the 50 bps Fed rate cut, the SPX finished an EW 5-waves up from the 9/6 low and made a new ATH at 5736 on Tuesday. Just a corrective pullback into Wednesday/Thursday would argue for a higher high above 5736 going into October.  The year 2007 SPX analog model made higher highs into 10/11.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold is spiking to a new ATH at $2694.6 overnight Tuesday - we continue to sub-divide higher after the Fed rate cut. 

Stocks – The SPX made a marginal new ATH at 5736 on much smaller volume - this is bearish for a retest of 5400 in the next month. On the other hand the USD closed below 100.5 which is short-term bullish for the SPx. 

Gold – Gold is made a new ATH at $2694.6 overnight Tuesday.

Silver –  Silver tested its high for the year at $32.61 overnight Tuesday before correcting.

Bonds – Bonds are testing 124'14 early Wednesday. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $70.74 early Wednesday.

Dollar Index – The USD closed below major support at 100.50 and continues lower.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 9/23-9/24.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 23, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX appear to be doing a sideways EW a-b-c correction into the 9/23-9/24 turn window but the IWM had more of a zig-zag correction from Thursday into Monday.  Our bias is for another SPX and NDX leg down into Tuesday before a reversal higher. The SPX appears to be tracking the year 2007 SPX analog which rallied into 10/11. The new ATHs in the SPX, DJIA, and NYSE composite post-Fed rate cut last week argue that the 2007 year analog stock market model is in play and that higher highs are possible into October before a reversal down . Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

9/23/24 (Commentary for Monday)  The SPX appears to have finished 5-waves up from 9/6 into 5733.57 and started an EW a-b-c correction into Friday which could end by Tuesday. The Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turn window in our work and it could mark the SPX low of this week. The SPX also rallied up in an EW 5-waves from its 8/5 low and made a new ATH at 5733 in last week's 9/16-9/19 Full Moon Timing Window. The year 2007 SPX analog model appears to be working here and allows for a possible new SPX ATH into October above 5733. Our bias allows for the possibility of some indices making a new ATH into October and the IWM could play catch up here. Gold is making a new ATH at $2664.6 overnight Monday.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  After the 50 bps Fed rate cut, the SPX finished an EW 5-waves up from the 9/6 low and made a new ATH at 5733.57 before pulling back into Friday and bouncing into Monday. Just a corrective pullback into the 9/23-9/24 turn window would argue for a higher high above 5733 going into October.  The year 2007 SPX analog model made higher highs into 10/11.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold is spiking to a new ATH at $2664.6 overnight Monday - we are completing a 5-wave rally from 9/11. 

Stocks – The E-mini appears to be coiling into the 9/23-9/24 turn window. 

Gold – Gold is making a new ATH at $2664.6 overnight Monday.

Silver –  Silver tested $31.48 overnight Monday before correcting.

Bonds – Bonds are holding 124'23 overnight Monday. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $71.23 overnight Monday.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 101 overnight Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 9/23-9/24.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - September 22, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us 5-waves up from 9/6 which peaked at 5733.57 on Thursday after the Fed rate cut. The SPX then pulled pack into Friday and bounced correctively. Our bias is for another leg down into the 9/23-9/24 turn window before a reversal higher. The SPX appears to be tracing out the year 2007 SPX analog which rallied into 10/11. The new ATHs in the SPX, DJIA, and NYSE composite post-Fed rate cut last week argue that the 2007 year analog stock market model is in play and that higher highs are possible into October before a reversal down . Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

9/22/24 (Commentary for Sunday)  The SPX appears to have finished 5-waves up from 9/6 into 5733.57 and started an EW a-b-c correction into Friday which could end in the 9/23-9/24 turn window. The Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turn window in our work and it could mark the SPX low of the coming week. The SPX also rallied up in an EW 5-waves from its 8/5 low and made a new ATH at 5733 in last week's 9/16-9/19 Full Moon Timing Window. The year 2007 SPX analog model appears to be working here and allows for a possible new SPX ATH into October above 5733. Our bias allows for the possibility of some indices making a new ATH into October and the IWM could play catch up here. Gold is making a new ATH at $2654 overnight Sunday.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  After the 50 bps Fed rate cut, the SPX finished an EW 5-waves up from the 9/6 low and made a new ATH at 5733.57 before pulling back into Friday. Just a corrective pullback into the 9/23-9/24 turn window would argue for a higher high above 5733 going into October.  The year 2007 SPX analog model made higher highs into 10/11.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold is spiking to a new ATH at $2654 overnight Sunday - we are completing a 5-wave rally from 9/11. 

Stocks – The E-mini may be just pulling back in an EW a-b-c correction into 9/23-9/24. 

Gold – Gold is making a new ATH at $2654 overnight Sunday.

Silver –  Silver is holding at $31.28 overnight Sunday.

Bonds – Bonds are holding 124'24 overnight Sunday. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $71.51 overnight Sunday.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding 100.8 overnight Sunday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 9/23-9/24.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 19, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Global markets rallied on the Fed 50 bps rate cut and the US markets followed through higher on the second day and continued to make new ATHs in the DJIA, SPX and the NYSE. However, the astronomical backdrop of the Full Moon/lunar eclipse gives us a cautionary note. The Full moon/lunar eclipse was conjuncted by Neptune with Saturn in close proximity and the astrological description of this aspect is "delusional". The 100 point rally in the SPX looks almost too good to believe in our view and WE DO NOT BELIEVE IN CHASING THIS RALEIGH. Our bias is that the SPX has finished or is close to finishing an EW 5-waves up from 8/5 and made a new ATH that is seeing divergence on momentum oscillators. The VIX partially filled its gap below 16.5 and this gauge could be close to an important low. The Tuesday after a monthly expiration, 9/24, could see a reversal back down if we are making an important high in the SPX by Friday. The new ATHs in the SPX, DJIA, and NYSE composite post-Fed rate cut today argue that the 2007 year analog stock market model is in play and that higher highs are possible into October before a reversal down . Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

9/19/24 (Commentary for Thursday)  Global equities rallied hard on the 50 bps Fed rate cut and the SPX followed through on Thursday with a nearly 100 point gain, BUT WE DO NOT BELIEVE IN CHASING THIS RALLY. The astrological context of the Full Moon/lunar eclipse and the divergences that we are seeing in several indicators are keeping us cautious. It's a good time to raise your trading stops and protect your profits after the extended rally from 9/11. The SPX rallied up in an EW 5-waves from its 8/5 low and made a new ATH at 5733 in today's 9/16-9/19 Full Moon Timing Window but the NDX is still lagging. The year 2007 SPX analog model appears to be working here and allows for a possible new SPX ATH into October but we are SEEING CAUTIOUS FLAGS here. Our bias allowed for the possibility of some indices making a new ATH into October, but how the SPX trades through quad witching into 9/24 is key.  The Presidential election year and the year SPX 2007 analog model still argues for the possibility of a new ATH in several induces going into October but an important high in the SPX could be made in the short term. Gold is spiking to a new ATH at $2632 overnight Thursday.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  After reversing up after its 34-day Fibonacci step out from 8/5 on 9/6-9/9, the SPX joined the DJIA, SPXEW and NYSE in making new ATHs for the year but the stock market is looking toppy going into quad witching. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold spiked to $2632 overnight Thursday - we are completing a 5-wave rally from 9/11. A correction into 9/24 is possible.

Stocks – The E-mini made a 5-wave pattern completion from 9/11 to pre-market Thursday - a correction into the weekend is likely. 

Gold – Gold made a new ATH at $2632 overnight Thursday - looking now for a correction into 9/24.

Silver –  Silver made a higher high at $31.76 pre-market Friday - we could now correct into 9/24.

Bonds – Bonds are testing 124'18 again early Friday. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil is holding at $70.81 early Friday.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 100.4 overnight Thursday and is rebounding.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 9/16-9/18.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 18, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The FOMC cut its Fed Fund rate by 50 bps and we had big volatility into the close with the SPX closing down. However, the first reaction after the announcement was for the SPX to make a new ATH at 5689.73 before pulling back. Our bias is that the SPX finished an EW 5-waves up from 8/5 and made a new ATH and is now correcting in an EW a-b-c pullback. The SPX did make an ATH in the 9/16-9/18 Full Moon Timing Window which includes a Full Moon, a lunar eclipse at perigee and the Fed rate cut decision and could now correct into the quad witching expiration from Friday into Monday. The Tuesday after a monthly expiration, 9/24, should see a reversal back up in the SPX that should test 5689. The new ATH in the SPX and DJIA post-Fed rate cut today argues that the 2007 year analog stock market model is in play and that higher highs are possible into October after a short-term correction. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

9/18/24 (Commentary for Wednesday)  The SPX spiked to a new ATH after the 50 bps rate cut from the Fed and we may have finished a 5-wave up rally from 8/5. The SPX could now see a correction through the quad witching monthly option expiration. It's a good time to raise your trading stops and protect your profits after the extended rally from 9/11. The SPX rallied up in an EW 5-waves from its 8/5 low and made a new ATH at 5689 in today's 9/16-9/18 turn window but the NDX is still lagging. The SPX reversed up impulsively from its 34-day step out on 9/6-9/9 and may finish its 5th wave higher early Thursday. The year 2007 SPX analog model appears to be working here and allows for a possible new SPX ATH into October. Our bias allowed for the possibility of some indices making a new ATH into October as we saw with the new ATH today in several indices after the Fed rate cut on Wednesday. The QQQ decline from 8/22 to 9/6 may have been just 3-wave, so it is possible to see a test of the July highs. However, money appears to be flowing from the Big Tech stocks into the small caps and the NDX may have made a top for this bull market cycle. The Presidential election year and the year SPX 2007 analog model still argues for the possibility of a new ATH in several induces going into October. We need to allow for the possibility of new ATHs in the SPX and IWM going into October. Gold spiked to a new ATH at $2627 on Wednesday and may be close to a 5-wave pattern completion from 9/11.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  After reversing up after its 34-day Fibonacci step out from 8/5 on 9/6-9/9, the SPX joined the DJIA, SPXEW and NYSE in making new ATHs for the year. The 2007 analog stock market model looks good for higher SPX and IWM highs into October.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold spiked to $2627 post-Fed - we may be close to completing a 5-wave rally from 9/11. A correction into 9/24 is possible.

Stocks – The E-mini is making a 5-wave pattern completion from 9/11 into pre-market Thursday - a correction into 9/24 is possible. 

Gold – Gold made a new ATH at $2627 post-Fed - looking now for a correction into 9/24.

Silver –  Silver made a higher high at $31.68 pre-market Thursday - we could now correct into 9/24.

Bonds – Bonds pulled back to test its S2-pivot support at 124'18 early Thursday. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil is holding at $70.64 early Thursday.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 100.51 early Thursday and is rebounding.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 9/16-9/18.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 17, 2024, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The DJIA, SPX, SPXEX and NYSE all made new intra-day ATHs today and the NYSE cumulative Advance/Decline line also made a new high. We are looking for the stock market to make an important high in the 9/16-9/18 Full moon Timing Window which includes a Full Moon, a lunar eclipse at perigee and a Fed rate cut decision on Wednesday. Since the pullback into 8/5 was only 3-waves for the SPX, NDX and DJIA, that allowed for this rally to be a 5th wave in some indices and new ATHs are possible going into the 9/16-9/18 Full Moon Timing Window like we saw today in the DJIA. The new ATH in the DJIA on Monday argued that the 2007 year analog stock market model is in effect. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

9/17/24 (Commentary for Tuesday)  The SPX has given us 7 higher days in a row and the DJIA, SPX, SPXEW, and the NYSE all gave us higher for the year on Tuesday as we approach the FOMC rate cut decision on Wednesday. It's a good time to raise your trading stops and protect your profits after this extended rally from last week.  The SPX rallied up in an EW 5-waves from its 8/5 low and made a new ATH in today's 9/16-9/18 turn window but the NDX is still lagging. The SPX reversed up impulsively from its 34-day step out on 9/6-9/9 and may be in a 3rd wave of 5 higher as we approach the 9/18 Fed rate cut decision. The year 2007 SPX analog model appears to be working here and allows for a possible new SPX ATH into October. Our bias allowed for the possibility of some indices making a new ATH into October as we saw with the new ATH today in several indices. The QQQ decline from 8/22 to 9/6 may have been just 3-wave, so the current rally may also be a 3rd wave of wave 5 from the 8/5 low. The Presidential election year and the year SPX 2007 analog model still argues for the possibility of a new ATH in several induces going into October. We need to allow for the possibility of new ATHs in the IWM  and NDX going into October. Gold pulled back in 3-waves and tested $2587 on Tuesday and is only giving us a 3-wave bounce into Wednesday.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  After reversing up after its 34-day Fibonacci step out from 8/5 on 9/6-9/9, the SPX joined the DJIA, SPXEW and NYSE in making new ATHs for the year. The 2007 analog stock market model looks good for higher SPX highs into October.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold declined to $2587 in 3-waves Tuesday night - we are doing an EW a-b-c correction into the 9/16-9/18 turn window.

Stocks – The DJIA gave us an ATH on Monday and the SPX made an ATH on Tuesday after 5-waves higher from 8/5 - this argues for at least a 3-wave correction after the Fed rate cut decision. 

Gold – Gold made a new ATH Sunday night at $2617 and started a 3-wave correction that tested $2587 on Tuesday - lower lows are possible after the Fed rate cut decision. 

Silver –  Silver rallied big after the PPI report and tested $31.46 Sunday night - we started a 3-wave correction that tested $30.70 on Tuesday.

Bonds – Bonds are testing its S2-support pivot at 126'09 early Wednesday. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $71.87 on Tuesday's Full Moon and started a pullback into Wednesday.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding 101 early Wednesday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 9/16-9/18.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 16, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The DJIA made a new ATH on Monday but the SPX and NDX bearishly diverged. We are looking for the stock market to make an important high in the 9/16-9/18 Full moon Timing Window which includes a Full Moon, a lunar eclipse at perigee and a Fed rate cut decision on Wednesday. Since the pullback into 8/5 was only 3-waves for the SPX, NDX and DJIA, that allowed for this rally to be a 5th wave in some indices and new ATHs are possible going into the 9/16-9/18 Full Moon Timing Window like we saw today in the DJIA. The new ATH in the DJIA argues that the 2007 year analog stock market model is in effect. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

9/16/24 (Commentary for Monday)  The DJIA rallied up in an EW 5-waves from its 8/5 low and made a new ATH in today's 9/16-9/18 turn window. So far the SPX and NDX have bearishly diverged. The SPX reversed up impulsively from its 34-day step out on 9/6-9/9 and may be in a 3rd wave of 5 higher as we approach the 9/18 Fed rate cut decision. The year 2007 SPX analog model allows for a possible new SPX ATH into October. Our bias allowed for the possibility of some indices making a new ATH into October as we saw with the ATH today. The QQQ decline from 8/22 to 9/6 may have been just 3-wave, so the current rally may be a 3rd wave of wave 5 from the 8/5 low. The Presidential election year and the year SPX 2007 analog model still argues for the possibility of a new ATH in additional induces going into October. We will need to allow for the possibility of new ATHs in the IWM, NYSE composite, SPX and the SPXEW going into October. Gold is making a new ATH Sunday night at $2617 and higher highs are still possible going into the 9/16-9/18 turn window.   

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  After reversing up after its 34-day Fibonacci step out from 8/5 on 9/6-9/9, the SPX is once again close to testing its SPX ATH. The 2007 analog stock market model allow for a rally into the 9/18 Fed rate cut decision but then a pullback.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold broke higher after Thursday's PPI inflation report and tested $2617 Sunday night - we could see a short-term whoosh up to $2700 going into the 9/18 Fed rate cut decision but that could set an intermediate high.

Stocks – The DJIA gave us an ATH on Monday but the SPX and NDX diverged. If the SPX and NDX continue to rally into the Fed rate cut decision on Wednesday, we will be selling some long positions since the Fed futures are pricing in a 50 basis point cut which may not be met.

Gold – Gold is making a new ATH Sunday night at $2617 - a whoosh higher to $2700 is possible going into the 9/18 Fed rate cut decision but that could set a short-term high. 

Silver –  Silver rallied big after the PPI report and tested $31.46 Sunday night - a test of $32 is possible into the 9/18 Fed rate cut decision. Silver stocks are leading silver higher which is bullish.

Bonds – Bonds are holding at 127'13 overnight Monday. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil is rallying into the 9/16-9/18 Full Moon Timing Window and tested $70.64 overnight Monday.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding 100.75 Monday night.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 9/16-9/18.