All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 29, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX rallied back after a post-NVDA earnings report selloff overnight, but the SPX reversed down around 1 pm EDT and closed the market with a negative tone - this is a CAUTION FLAG - we closed out our short-term long trades. There is typically positive seasonality going into the US Labor Day holiday weekend, but the close today argues that the 4th wave correction is still in force and we could see lower lows below SPX 5560. We have the PCE inflation report early Friday and that could set the early tone. Our bias was for a high into the 9/3-9/4 New Moon Timing Window but today's close argues that it could be a low.  Overall though, the new ATHs in the NYSE and SPXEW continue to paint the picture of a "broadening top" in the US stock market and we are still looking for important index highs in September/October. We are still focused on the year 2007 market analog as a roadmap for the fall of 2024 because it had a similar Fed policy action(first rate cut on 9/14/07 with SPX ATH on 10/11/07) and a similar astro-finance setup in the skies. Our Option Premium Ratio(OPR) came it at 0.78  - this argues for potentially lower lows into next week. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

8/28/24 (Commentary for Wednesday)  The SPX closed poorly on Thursday and that changed our short-term bias - we closed out our short-term long trades and are looking for a possible continuation of the 4th wave correction into early next week. The SPXEW and the NYSE both made highs for the week and reversed down into the close and we turned cautious for the short term. The SPX still has a chance to reverse up in a 5th wave higher into the 9/3 New Moon but that is looking less likely now. Gold continues to consolidate in a tight range as we trade into Friday. We are using 2007 as an analog market year for the SPX and are expecting a rally from August into September/October.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a weak close on Thursday and its 4th wave correction  could extend into next week- We closed out our short-term long trades Thursday and are waiting. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold made a B-Wave test of $2570 on Tuesday and continues to consolidate into Friday.

Stocks – The SPX and NDX rebounded nicely early Thursday but the reversal down into Thursday's close turned us cautious. We may still reverse higher into the 9/3-9/4 New Moon turn window but we decided to close out our short-term long trades.

Gold – Gold made a B-Wave test of $2570 on Tuesday and continues to consolidate sideways into Friday. 

Silver –  We believe that 8/7 was a "panic low" for silver and it started a rally to test $32 soon. Silver  gave us 5-waves down on the hourly chart on Wednesday and may have just bounced correctively into Friday - we are cautious and sold our short-term long trades. 

Bonds – Bonds are holding at 123'26 early Friday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil bounced on Thursday but is pulling back overnight. We sold our XOM calls Thursday.

Dollar Index – The USD is bouncing to test 101.5 early Friday. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 8/26 and 8/28.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 28, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The earnings from NVDA came in better than estimates, but not as good as the whisper numbers, so the futures sold off overnight. We were wrong about "blow-out" earnings from NVDA, but the NQ and ES futures could recover Thursday mornings. We plan to sit tight and see how the market opens on Thursday, but take action if the NDX continues to sub-divide lower after the first hour of trading. There is typically positive seasonality going into the US Labor Day holiday weekend. We also believe that the 9/3-9/4 New Moon Timing Window could still be a high if the lunar cycle inverts from August where the New Moon came in as a low on 8/5 and as a high on 8/20.  Overall though, the new ATHs in the NYSE and SPXEW continue to paint the picture of a "broadening top" in the US stock market and we are still looking for important index highs in September/October. We are still focused on the year 2007 market analog as a roadmap for the fall of 2024 because it had a similar Fed policy action(first rate cut on 9/14/07 with SPX ATH on 10/11/07) and a similar astro-finance setup in the skies. Our Option Premium Ratio(OPR) ran up from 0.62 on Tuesday's close to 0.85 on Wednesday's close - this could be a potentially bearish breakout if not reversed down by Thursday's close. Our current positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.

8/28/24 (Commentary for Wednesday)  The SPX and NDX reversed down on the 21-day Fibonacci step out from 8/5 and we were looking for a pullback into Wednesday which we got - continued sub-division down to a negative close on Thursday would change our short-term bias. The SPXEW and the NYSE rallied to new ATHs on Monday but the SPX and NDX could only manage lower highs. The ES and NQ continue their 4th wave correction overnight Wednesday. Our bias is that the SPX still has a chance to reverse up in a 5th wave higher into the 9/3 New Moon. Gold rallied to a new high in the 8/19-8/20 3-star critical reversal day and just made a B-Wave test of that high on Tuesday night at $2564 - we could see a C-Wave down into Thursday. We are using 2007 as an analog market year for the SPX and are expecting a rally from August into September/October.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX is still continuing its 4th wave correction and it could extend into Thursday- We need to see a reversal up in a 5th wave in the SPX and NDX early Thursday or change our short-term bias for a rally into the 9/3-9/4 New Moon Timing Window. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold made a B-Wave test of $2570 on Tuesday and we could see a C-Wave down into Thursday.

Stocks – The ES and NQ continued down into Wednesday evening after the NVDA earnings. Our bias is for the SPX and NDX to reverse higher early Thursday and rally into the 9/3-9/4 New Moon Timing Window. 

Gold – Gold made a B-Wave test of $2570 on Tuesday and declined into Wednesday but held $2500 - we are trying to rally early Thursday. 

Silver –  We believe that 8/7 was a "panic low" for silver and it started a rally to test $32 soon. Silver  gave us 5-waves down on the hourly chart on Wednesday and is trying to rally early Thursday. 

Bonds – Bonds are holding at 124'08 overnight Wednesday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil pulled back in an EW a-b-c correction on Wednesday. The XLE is looking attractive to us.

Dollar Index – The USD is consolidating sideways and holding around 101 overnight Wednesday. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 8/26 and 8/28.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 27, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Nothing much has changed for us. We are looking now for more SPX and NDX consolidation into Wednesday before the NVDA earnings. The NVDA earnings report will set the short-term market tone going into the holiday weekend. Our bias is for blowout earnings once again from NVDA which will launch a 5th wave higher in the SPX and NDX to new ATHs into 9/3-9/4 - the New Moon Timing Window. Overall, the new ATHs in the NYSE and SPXEW continue to paint the picture of a "broadening top" in the US stock market and we are looking for important index highs in September/October. We are still focused on the year 2007 market analog as a roadmap for the fall of 2024 because it had a similar Fed policy action(first rate cut on 9/14/07 with SPX ATH on 10/11/07) and a similar astro-finance setup in the skies. The "panic selloff" into 8/5 from the Yen-carry trade unwind also fueled the run up in gold into the 3-star critical reversal turn window of 8/19-8/20 to $2570, however, gold gave us just a B-Wave test of its ATH going into its 8/23-8/26 21-day Fibonacci step out and we expect more consolidation into Wednesday. If a similar run(compared to year 2007) happens in the next few months for the stock market, we will then expect the SPX to reverse back down and retest the 5200 level at some point after the election. Our updated positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.  

 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 8/26 and 8/28.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 26, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The 21-day Fibonacci step out from 8/5 did come in today for the SPX and NDX. We are looking now for a pullback into Wednesday before the NVDA earnings which will set the short-term tone for the market on. Our bias is to expect blowout earnings once again from NVDA which will launch a 5th wave higher in the SPX and NDX to new ATHs into 9/3. Overall, the new ATHs in the NYSE and SPXEW continue to paint the picture of a "broadening top" in the US stock market and we are looking for important index highs in September/October. We are still focused on the year 2007 market analog as a roadmap for the fall of 2024 because it had a similar Fed policy action(first rate cut on 9/14/07 with SPX ATH on 10/11/07) and a similar astro-finance setup in the skies. The "panic selloff" into 8/5 from the Yen-carry trade unwind also fueled the run up in gold into the 3-star critical reversal turn window of 8/19-8/20 to $2570, however, gold gave us just a B-Wave test of its ATH going into its 8/23-8/26 21-day Fibonacci step out. If a similar run(to year 2007) happens in the next few months for the stock market, we will then expect the SPX to reverse back down and retest the 5200 level. Our updated positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.  

8/26/24 (Commentary for Monday)  The SPX and NDX reversed down on the 21-day Fibonacci step out from 8/5 and we are looking for a pullback into Wednesday. The SPXEW and the NYSE rallied to new ATHs on Monday but the SPX and NDX could only manage lower highs. The SPX is still correcting in a 4th wave that should bottom on Wednesday before the NVDA earnings. Our bias is that the market will like the NVDA earnings report and the SPX and NDX will reverse up in a 5th wave higher into the 9/3 New Moon. Gold rallied to a new high in the 8/19-8/20 3-star critical reversal day and just made a B-Wave test of that high on Friday - we are looking for 5-waves down on the hourly into Wednesday to get long again for a trade. We are using 2007 as an analog market year for the SPX and are expecting a rally from August into September/October.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX is still continuing its 4th wave correction could extend into 8/28 (NVDA earnings after the close) - we are looking for a reversal up in a 5th wave in the ES and NQ after NVDA earnings and into the 9/3 New Moon. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold made a B-Wave test of $2570 on Monday and we are looking for 5-waves down on the hourly into Tuesday/Wednesday to take a position.

Stocks – The SPXEW and the NYSE made new ATHs on Monday but the SPX and NDX just made lower highs. The 4th wave correction for the SPX may extend into 8/28 (NVDA earnings) - we are looking for the ES and NQ to reverse higher after the NVDA report.  

Gold – Gold made a B-Wave test of $2570 on Monday - we are now looking for 5-waves down on the hourly chart to get long into Wednesday. 

Silver –  We believe that 8/7 was a "panic low" for silver and it started a rally to test $32 soon. Silver  tested $30 early Monday in what looks like a B-Wave - we are looking for 5-waves down on the hourly chart into Wednesday to get long. 

Bonds – Bonds pulled back to 124'03 early Tuesday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is pilling back to $75.13 early Tuesday. The XLE is looking attractive to us.

Dollar Index – The USD is consolidating sideways before more down - testing 100.7 early Tuesday. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 8/26 and 8/28.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - August 25, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Chairman Powell alerted the financial markets that the Fed was about to start rate cuts in the US but specifics were lacking. In any case, the financial markets rallied with the NYSE and the SPXEW all making new ATHs. The 21-day Fibonacci step out for the SPX and NDX, from the 8/5 panic low,  comes in on Monday and that could give us a correction for a few days. We are also cautious on the very low CBOE put/call ratios seen last week and took some money off the table into Friday's close. Overall, the new highs in the NYSE and SPXEW continue to paint the picture of a "broadening top" in the US stock market and we are looking for important index highs in September/October. We are still focused on the year 2007 market analog as a roadmap for the fall of 2024 because it had a similar Fed policy action(first rate cut on 9/14/07 with SPX ATH on 10/11/07) and a similar astro-finance setup in the skies. The "panic selloff" into 8/5 from the Yen-carry trade unwind also fueled the run up in gold into the 3-star critical reversal turn window of 8/19-8/20 to $2570, however, gold gave us just a B-Wave test of its ATH going into its 8/23-8/26 21-day Fibonacci step out. If a similar run(to year 2007) happens in the next few months for the stock market, we will then expect the SPX to reverse back down and retest the 5200 level. Our updated positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.  

8/25/24 (Commentary for Sunday)  The SPX rallied on Friday after Chairman Powell's speech on preparing the markets for a potential cut in rates. The SPXEW and the NYSE rallied to a new ATH but the SPX and NDX could only manage lower highs. Still, with the 21-day Fibonacci step out on Monday, we are expecting a move lower for a few days. Our bias is that the SPX is correcting in a 4th wave that could have bottomed late Thursday or could extend a few days more in the coming week before reversing up in a 5th wave higher - how we trade on Monday will enlighten us. Gold rallied to a new high in the 8/19-8/20 3-star critical reversal day and may have just made a B-Wave test of that high on Friday. A major rally started in the 8/4-8/6 New Moon Timing Window and after eight straight days of rally, the SPX  started a 4th wave consolidation pattern that may continue into 8/28 or so before reversing up in a 5th wave higher - Monday's trade should enlighten us. We are using 2007 as a possible analog market year for the SPX and are expecting a rally from August into September/October.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX may have ended its 4th wave correction late Thursday or it could extend into 8/28 before reversing up in a 5th wave higher. How we trade on Monday will enlighten us. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold broke out of a bullish  "cup and handle" formation on the hourly chart and tested $2570 Tuesday in the 8/19-8/20 turn window before starting a 3-wave correction into late Thursday.

Stocks – The SPXEW and the NYSE made new ATHs on Friday but the SPX and NDX just made lower highs. the 4th wave correction for the SPX may extend into 8/28 - how we trade on Monday will enlighten us. The low CBOE put/call ratios last week argue for some caution here. 

Gold – Gold made an ATH at $2570 on Tuesday before starting a 3-wave correction into Friday. The rally on Friday could have been just a B-Wave test. How we trade on Monday will enlighten us.

Silver –  We believe that 8/7 was a "panic low" for silver and it started a rally to test $32 soon. Silver is testing $30 overnight Sunday. 

Bonds – Bonds are holding 125'00 overnight Sunday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is rallying to $75.54 overnight Sunday.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 100.53 overnight Sunday. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 8/26 and 8/28.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 22, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Since early Wednesday, the SPX has pulled back in a 3-wave correction that closed at the lows of the day on Thursday ahead of Chairman Powell's address early Friday. With the CBOE equity put/call ratio now at lower lows than at the 7/16 SPX ATH, the market has a risk of more decline into Friday/Monday. We have seen some of the lowest CBOE put/call ratios of the year this week and are now cautious going into the Friday Fed event which could generate more downside volatility. The correction pattern in the SPX and gold both look 4th wave corrective. The "panic selloff" into 8/5 from the Yen-carry trade unwind has fueled the run up in the SPX and gold that could carry on into September. We favor the year 2007 SPX analog here as a roadmap for the balance of 2024 - a 10% panic selloff from a July high into 8/5 and then a divergent SPX high into 10/11. If a similar run happens in the next few months, we will then expect the SPX to reverse back down and retest the 5200 level. Gold bounced from late Monday evening and made a high at $2570 Tuesday - we are now tracing out a 4th wave into early Friday and Chairman Powell's speech. Our updated positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.  

8/22/24 (Commentary for Thursday)  The SPX rallied into the 8/19-8/20 3-star critical reversal turn window and then corrected in 3-waves into Thursday's close before Chairman Powell's talk early Friday at Jackson Hole. We are expecting big volatility on Friday in the SPX. Our bias, however, is that the SPX is correcting in a 4th wave that could bottom by Friday/Monday and then reverse higher in a 5th wave higher from the 8/5 low. The NYSE composite made a new ATH on Monday and the NYSE Advance/Decline line also made a new ATH which confirms the bull market going forward. The NDX rallied past its 34-day Fibonacci step out on 8/14 and that is a sign of strength. The QQQ peaked at 481 overnight Monday and started a 3-wave correction into the Friday Fed meeting at Jackson Hole. The NVDA earnings on 8/28 could keep Big Tech elevated until the end of the month. A major rally started in the 8/4-8/6 New Moon Timing Window and after eight straight days of rally, the SPX  started a 4th wave consolidation pattern that ran into Thursday's close. We are using 2007 as a possible analog market year for the SPX and are expecting a rally from August into September/October.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  After eight straight days of rally, the SPX found resistance at the 5621 gap in the 8/19-8/20 turn window and started a 3-wave correction into Chairman Powell's speech early Friday. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold broke out of a bullish  "cup and handle" formation on the hourly chart and tested $2570 Tuesday in the 8/19-8/20 turn window before starting a 3-wave correction into late Thursday.

Stocks – The SPX tested 5621 on Monday and then started a 3-wave correction into Thursday's close. The low CBOE put/call ratio argues for the chance of a deeper SPX pullback going into Friday/Monday. 

Gold – Gold tested $2570 on Tuesday before starting a 3-wave correction into Friday. The solar-lunar cycles argue for big volatility on Friday in the PM sector.

Silver –  We believe that 8/7 was a "panic low" for silver and it started a rally to test $32 soon. Silver tested $30 early Tuesday before pulling back into a 3-wave correction into late Thursday. 

Bonds – Bonds pulled back to 124'09 on Thursday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil made a multi-week lows at $71.46 Wednesday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD bounced to 101.34 Thursday evening. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 8/19-8/20 and 8/23.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 21, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX continued to consolidate sideways in a 4th wave and the Fed minutes generated little volatility. The SPX should consolidate into Friday with Chairman Powell's talk at Jackson Hole, WY. We are seeing some of the lowest CBOE put/call ratios of the year this week and are now cautious going into the Friday Fed event which could generate downside volatility. The correction pattern in the SPX and gold both look 4th wave corrective. The "panic selloff" into 8/5 from the Yen-carry trade unwind is "fueling" the run up in the SPX and gold that could carry on into September. We favor the year 2007 SPX analog here as a roadmap for the balance of 2024 - a 10% panic selloff from a July high into 8/5 and then a divergent SPX high into 10/10. If a similar run happens in the next few months, we will then expect the SPX to reverse down and retest the 5200 level as on 8/5. Gold bounced from late Monday evening and made a high at $2570 Tuesday - we are now tracing out a 4th wave into early Friday and Chairman Powell's speech. Our updated positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time for acquisition. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.  

8/21/24 (Commentary for Wednesday)  The SPX rallied into the 8/19-8/20 3-star critical reversal turn window and reversed down after testing the gap at 5621 and is now consolidating sideways into Chairman Powell's speech early Friday. The NYSE composite made a new ATH on Monday and the NYSE Advance/Decline line also made a new ATH which confirms the bull market going forward. The NDX rallied past its 34-day Fibonacci step out on 8/14 and that is a sign of strength. The QQQ peaked at 481 overnight Monday and started a sideways consolidation into the Friday Fed meeting at Jackson Hole. The NVDA earnings on 8/28 could keep Big Tech elevated until the end of the month. However, the Yen appears to be coiling for a 5th wave higher and that could give us some potential for downside volatility by Friday. A major rally started in the 8/4-8/6 New Moon Timing Window and after eight straight days of rally, the SPX found resistance on Tuesday at the 5621 level and started a 4th wave consolidation pattern. We are using 2007 as a possible analog market year for the SPX and are expecting a rally from August into September/October.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  After eight straight days of rally, the SPX found resistance at the 5621 gap in the 8/19-8/20 turn window and is now consolidating sideways into Chairman Powell's speech early Friday. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold broke out of a bullish  "cup and handle" formation on the hourly chart and tested $2570 Tuesday in the 8/19-8/20 turn window before starting a 4th wave sideways consolidation into Friday.

Stocks – The SPX tested 5632 and partially filled the gap from 7/17 before continuing a 4th wave consolidation into Friday. The low CBOE put/call ratio argues for the chance of a deeper SPX pullback going into Friday. 

Gold – Gold tested $2570 on Tuesday before starting a 4th consolidation into Friday. The solar-lunar cycles argue for big volatility on Friday.

Silver –  We believe that 8/7 was a "panic low" for silver and it started a rally to test $32 soon. Silver tested $30 early Tuesday before pulling back into a sideways consolidation. 

Bonds – Bonds are holding up at 124'31 Wednesday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is making multi-week lows at $71.46 Wednesday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD continued to sub-divide down and tested 100.92 which is boosting the PM sector.  

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 8/19 and 8/23.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 20, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX tested the gap at 5621 and appears to have started a 4th-wave correction off the 8/5 low as we go into Fed minutes on Wednesday. The SPX could correct into Friday with Chairman Powell's talk at Jackson Hole, WY. We saw some of the lowest CBOE put/call ratio of the year this week and are now cautious going into the Friday Fed event. How the SPX and gold corrects into Fed Wednesday will enlighten us - just a 3-wave pullback will be bullish. The "panic selloff" into 8/5 from the Yen-carry trade unwind is "fueling" the run up in the SPX and gold that could run into early September. We favor the year 2007 SPX analog here which gave a 10% panic selloff from a July high into 8/5/2007 and then a divergent SPX high into 10/10/2007. If a similar run happens in the next few months, we will then expect the SPX to reverse down and retest the 5200 level. Gold bounced from late Monday evening and made a high at $2570 Tuesday - we are now seeing a typical pullback to Wednesday on a Fed week. Our updated positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.  

8/20/24 (Commentary for Tuesday)  The SPX rallied into the 8/16-8/19 3-star critical reversal turn window and reversed down after testing the gap at 5621 and is now consolidating sideways into Fed Wednesday. The NYSE composite made a new ATH on Monday and the NYSE Advance/Decline line also made a new ATH which confirms the bull market. The NDX rallied past its 34-day Fibonacci step out on 8/14 and that is a sign of strength. The QQQ peaked at 481 overnight Monday and started a pullback into Fed Wednesday. The NVDA earnings on 8/28 could keep Big Tech elevated until the end of the month. However, the Yen appears to be coiling for a 5th wave higher and that could give us some potential for downside volatility this week. A major rally started in the 8/4-8/6 New Moon Timing Window and after eight straight days of rally, the SPX found resistance in the 8/19-8/20 turn window which includes the midpoint of the Mercury retrograde cycle. We are using 2007 as a possible analog market year for the SPX and are expecting a rally from August into September/October for the SPX.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  After eight straight days of rally, the SPX found resistance at the 5621 gap on the 8/19-8/20 turn window and is pulling back into Fed Wednesday. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold broke out of a bullish  "cup and handle" formation on the hourly chart and tested $2570 as we hit the 8/19-8/20 turn window.

Stocks – The SPX tested the gap at 5621 on 8/20 and is reversing down into Fed Wednesday. We may have seen the start of a 4th wave correction.

Gold – Gold is rallied out of a bullish "cup and handle" pattern on its hourly chart and tested $2570 on Tuesday before reversing down into Wednesday.

Silver –  We believe that 8/7 was a "panic low" for silver and it could have started a rally to test $32 soon. Silver tested $30 early Tuesday before pulling back into Wednesday. 

Bonds – Bonds are holding up at 124'29 Tuesday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is holding up at $73.26 Tuesday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD came down hard to 101.31 and that is supporting the PM sector.  

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 8/19 and 8/21.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 19, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX continued to run higher into the 8/16-8/19 turn window  which includes the Full Moon in Aquarius and the midpoint of the Mercury retrograde cycle. Today, we saw the lowest CBOE put/call ratio of the year and are now expecting a pullback into Wednesday's Fed minutes. How the SPX and gold corrects into Fed Wednesday will enlighten us - just a 3-wave pullback will be bullish. The "panic selloff" into 8/5 from the Yen-carry trade unwind is "fueling" the next run up in the SPX and gold that could run into September. We favor the year 2007 SPX analog here which gave a 10% panic selloff from a July high into 8/5/2007 and then a divergent SPX high into 10/10/2007. If we get a similar run in the next few months, we will then expect a sharp sell off from October to December that could be a 4-yr cycle low. The SPX seems attracted to test the initial gap at 5621 and we got to 5608 on Monday. The NDX rallied past its 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 7/11 ATH and that is bullish. The Yen may be coiling for another leg higher which could cause some volatility down to Fed Wednesday. Gold corrected from late Friday - we are expecting a typical pullback from Monday to Wednesday on a Fed week. Our updated positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.  

8/19/24 (Commentary for Monday)  The SPX continued  higher into the 8/16-8/19 3-star critical reversal turn window and we are expecting at least a short-term high in the Monday/Tuesday Full Moon Timing Window before a pullback into the Fed minutes on Wednesday. The NYSE composite made a new ATH and the NYSE Advance/Decline line also made a new ATH which confirms the bull market. The gap at 5621 now seems to be the target for a move to "double test" the ATH at 5669 and we closed at 5608 on Monday. All 21 S&P sectors rallied higher on Monday and that showed broad-based strength. The NDX rallied past its 34-day Fibonacci step out from its 7/11 ATH and that is a sign of strength. The QQQ rallied handily above 466 but we showed some MACD divergence. The NVDA earnings on 8/28 could keep Big Tech elevated until the end of the month. However, the Yen appears to be coiling for a 5th wave higher and that could give us some potential for downside volatility this week. Our bias last week was that a major rally started in the 8/4-8/6 New Moon Timing Window and we are now pushing higher into the 8/19-8/20 turn window which includes the midpoint of the Mercury retrograde cycle. We are using 2007 as a possible analog market year for the SPX and are expecting a rally from August into September/October for the SPX.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  Since the QQQ broke above 466, the SPX could see more rally into the 8/16-8/19 3-star critical reversal turn window before a pullback into Fed Wednesday. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold broke out of a bullish  "cup and handle" formation on the hourly chart and is targeting $2600 as we enter the 8/16-8/19 turn window.

Stocks – The SPX continues to sub-divide higher into the 8/16-8/19 3-star critical reversal turn window and could make a short-term high on Monday. The gap at SPX 5621 now appears to be the next target. However, the CBOE put/call ratio closed at 0.74 which argues for a 4th wave correction to start soon.

Gold – Gold is rallying out of a bullish "cup and handle" pattern on its hourly chart and could test $2600 on Monday/Tuesday.

Silver – From its low at $26.50 on 8/7, silver rallied in 5-waves up to 8/12 and then corrected in 3-waves into 8/14 before rallying up into late Friday to make highs for the week at $29.12. We believe that 8/7 was a "panic low" for silver and we could have started a rally to test $32 soon. Silver tested $30 early Tuesday. 

Bonds – Bonds are holding at 124'13 early Tuesday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil did give us an undercut low to $72.75 in the Full Moon and may have finished an EW a-b-c correction.

Dollar Index – The USD is pulling back to 101.63 and is supporting the PM sector.  

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 8/19 and 8/21.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - August 18, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: We are entering the 3-star critical reversal window for the SPX and the PM sector on 8/16-8/19 and that includes the Full Moon in Aquarius and the midpoint of the Mercury retrograde cycle. We are expecting a short-term high in the SPX and gold on Monday and then a pullback into the Fed minutes on Wednesday. How the SPX and gold corrects into Fed Wednesday will enlighten us. The "panic selloff" into 8/5 from the Yen-carry trade unwind is "fueling" the next run up in the SPX and gold that could run into Sept/Oct. We favor the year 2007 SPX analog here which gave a 10% panic selloff from a July high into 8/5/2007 and then a divergent SPX high into 10/10/2007. If we get a similar run in the next few months, we will then expect a sharp sell off from October to December that could be a 4-yr cycle low. The SPX seems attracted to test the initial gap at 5621 and that could be the target to test on Monday. The NDX rallied past its 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 7/11 ATH and that is bullish. The Yen may be coiling for another leg higher which could cause some volatility down to Fed Wednesday. Gold continued higher to a new ATH at $2548 and its open interest is increasing - we are expecting a short-term high on the Monday/Tuesday Full Moon Timing Window before a typical pullback to Fed Wednesday. Our updated positions are 55% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.  

8/18/24 (Commentary for Sunday)  The SPX continues to sub-divide higher into the 8/16-8/19 3-star critical reversal turn window and we are expecting at least a short-term high in the Monday/Tuesday Full moon Timing Window before a pullback into the Fed minutes on Wednesday. The gap at 5621 now seems to be the target for a move to "double test" the ATH at 5669. The NDX rallied past its 34-day Fibonacci step out from its 7/11 ATH and that is a sign of strength. The QQQ rallied handily above 466 which should extend the rally higher into the 8/16-8/19 turn window for at least a short-term high. The NVDA earnings on 8/28 could keep Big Tech elevated until the end of the month. However, the Yen appears to be coiling for a 5th wave higher and that could give us some potential for downside volatility into Wednesday. Our bias last week was for a sustained rebound to start in the 8/4-8/6 New Moon Timing Window and we are now pushing higher into the 8/16-8/19 turn window which includes the midpoint of the Mercury retrograde cycle. We are using 2007 as a possible analog market year for the SPX and are expecting a rally from August into October for the SPX.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  Since the QQQ broke above 466, the SPX could see more rally into the 8/16-8/19 3-star critical reversal turn window before a pullback into Fed Wednesday. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)   Gold broke out of a bullish  "cup and handle" formation on the hourly chart and is targeting $2600 as we enter the 8/16-8/19 turn window.

Stocks – The SPX continues to sub-divide higher into the 8/16-8/19 3-star critical reversal turn window and could make a short-term high on Monday. The gap at SPX 5621 now appears to be the next target.

Gold – Gold is rallying out of a bullish "cup and handle" pattern on its hourly chart and could test $2600 on Monday/Tuesday.

Silver – From its low at $26.50 on 8/7, silver rallied in 5-waves up to 8/12 and then corrected in 3-waves into 8/14 before rallying up into late Friday to make highs for the week at $29.12. We believe that 8/7 was a "panic low" for silver and we could have started a rally to test $32 soon.

Bonds – Bonds rallied back to 123'19 on Sunday evening.

Crude Oil – We're looking for crude oil to undercut $74.63 on Monday's Full Moon.

Dollar Index – The USD pulled back to 102.4 late Friday.  

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 8/19 and 8/21.