Folks,
Market Observations for the Week: The SPX tested a supply zone at SPX 5390-5402 and reversed higher to fill the overhead gap at 5506-5551 after the Fed minutes. The well-received earnings from META afterhours is leading the market to a gap-up open Thursday morning. Today, the Russell 2000(IWM) and the NYSE Composite(NYA) both made an ATH. Did the NDX and SPX make an important low Tuesday? How we trade Thursday/Friday will tell us - earnings from AAPL and AMZN and the NFP jobs report early Friday will determine the short-term trend for the SPX and NDX. Gold also made a new ATH today at $2502.8 but silver did not make a higher high for the year for a case of bearish divergence. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 50% cash and 20% physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium - we favor palladium at the current time. We are currently trading gold, silver and mining stocks with 25% of our cash.
7/31/24 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX tested the supply zone from 5390 to 5402 late Tuesday and rebounded sharply to fill the overhead gap at SPX 5051 while the IWM and NYA both made a new ATH. Is the bottom now in for the SPX and NDX correction? How we trade on Thursday/Friday will tell us and the strong META earnings are guiding the market to a gap-up open early Thursday. We are looking at 2007 as a possible analog market year for the SPX and are expecting great volatility from mid-July until October.
Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX finished a 3-wave correction (Wave A) at 5390.95 on 7/25 and we got a "big-range EW a-b-c correction" that tested SPX 5500 on Monday then the supply zone at SPX 5390-5402 late Tuesday. We saw the overhead gap at SPX 5506-5551 get filled today.
Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) August gold declined on the hourly chart and tested $2375 late Thursday before bouncing in 3-waves into Wednesday evening and making a new ATH at $2502 while silver bearishly diverged.
Stocks – The SPX reversed up from the supply zone at 5390-5402 and filled the overhead gap at 5506-5551 today. Has the SPX and NDX correction ended? Well received earnings from META are guiding the SPX to a gap-up open on Thursday. The series of solar storms striking the Earth this week could create volatility into Friday.
Gold – August gold declined (5-waves or 3-waves?) and tested $2375 on Thursday before bouncing in 3-waves to make a new ATH at $2502 on Wednesday evening.
Silver – Silver declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart and tested $27.55 Thursday before a bounce to test $29 Wednesday evening. Silver is bearishly diverging from gold.
Bonds – Bonds rallied to 121'26 Wednesday evening after the Fed guided the market to a September rate cut.
Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $78.56 Wednesday evening.
Dollar Index – The USD pulled back to 103.9 Wednesday evening after the Fed minutes.
TURNING POINT DAY
The turn windows for this week are 7/31 and 8/2.