All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 27, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX may have ended Wave B of 4 today and started a Wave C down that could spike down Friday morning if the market dislikes the PCE inflation report early Friday. Various measures of the "put/call" ratio also looked "skewed to the call side" on the close of trading and this makes the the SPX vulnerable to a "hotter-than-expected" PCE report.  We expected a volatile SPX this week to rebalance sentiment, but the week ends with the start of a very bullish SPX seasonal rally period from 6/28 to mid-July. If the SPX does give us a down opening, we will be looking to go long some IWM for a rally into July. Gold held $2304 and bounced on Thursday, but the PCE inflation report early Friday will set the short-term trend.  Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 50% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum. We are currently trading gold, silver and oil stocks with 25% of our cash. 

6/27/24 (Commentary for Thursday)  The SPX and NDX have declined in a 4th wave from 6/20 and so far the pullback was just a 3-wave affair(Wave A of 4?) going into Tuesday and perhaps a Wave B of 4 going into Thursday. We may have seen a Wave C of 4 down start Thursday afternoon that could spike down early Friday on a hot PCE report. By week's end our bias is for a strong reversal up after the PCE inflation report in the SPX and NDX that could make a new ATH by 7/12 or so. Crude oil is testing $82.32, highs for the week, Thursday evening. Gold and silver declined in a Wave C to test recent lows but both bounced Thursday. The Moon left the sign of Aquarius Wednesday which correlates with lows in the PM sector. The SPX made a 5th wave higher from its 4/19 low on the daily chart and we made another ATH at 5505.53 before kicking off a 4th wave correction from 6/20 which could end by 6/28. From the Nasdaq solar-lunar cycles, we are expecting big volatility toward the end of this week in the NDX which correlates with positive seasonality from 6/28 to mid-July.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX and NDX both made a new ATH on 6/20 going into the Full Moon Timing Window and then gave us a Key Reversal Day down - we are now seeing a 4th wave correction in the SPX into 6/28. After the PCE inflation report on Friday, the SPX and NDX could reverse up to make a new ATH by the 7/5 New Moon.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold and silver both rallied in a B-Wave test of their May highs into the 6/20-5/21 Full Moon Timing Window before starting a C-Wave down on 6/21 that could run into 6/28 before a reversal higher. 

Stocks – The SPX gave us a Wave A of 4 down into late Monday before a Wave B of 4 bounce into Thursday. We are now looking for a potential Wave C of 4 down into 6/28. How the SPX reacts to the PCE report will set the short-term trend.

Gold – Gold tested the $2304 low and bounced on Thursday. After the PCE inflation report early Friday, a reversal higher is possible. 

Silver –  Silver is in a C-Wave down that tested $28.73 late Tuesday - holding $28.73 after Friday's PCE inflation report would be bullish for a reversal higher. 

Bonds – Bonds declined in an EW a-b-c correction from 120'24 and reversed higher on Thursday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $82.32 Thursday evening - highs for the week. 

Dollar Index – The USD is coiling before a rally attempt to test 107.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/27-6/28.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 26, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: After opening down on Wednesday, the SPX finished with a rally day. Overall, we are still looking for more weakness into the PCE inflation report early Friday before a reversal higher. We expected a volatile SPX this week to rebalance sentiment, but the week ends with the start of a very bullish seasonal rally period from 6/28 to mid-July. Gold tested $2304, but the price pattern and volume argue for an undercut low on Thursday. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 50% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum. We are currently trading gold, silver and oil stocks with 25% of our cash. 

6/26/24 (Commentary for Wednesday)  The SPX and NDX have declined in a 4th wave from 6/20 and so far the pullback was just a 3-wave affair(Wave A of 4?) going into Tuesday and perhaps a Wave B of 4 going into Wednesday's close. We may see a Wave C of 4 start early Thursday. By week's end our bias is for a strong reversal up after the PCE inflation report in the SPX and NDX that could make a new ATH by 7/12 or so. After testing $82 overnight Monday, crude oil started consolidating sideways. Gold and silver declined in a Wave C to test recent lows and gold looks to undercut the $2304 low on Thursday. The Moon is in the sign of Aquarius until Wednesday which correlates with lows in the PM sector. The SPX made a 5th wave higher from its 4/19 low on the daily chart and we made another ATH at 5505.53 before kicking off a 4th wave correction from 6/20 which could end by 6/28. From the Nasdaq solar-lunar cycles, we are expecting big volatility toward the end of this week in the NDX which correlates with positive seasonality from 6/28 to mid-July.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX and NDX both made a new ATH on 6/20 going into the Full Moon Timing Window and then gave us a Key Reversal Day down - we are now seeing a 4th wave correction in the SPX into 6/28. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold and silver both rallied in a B-Wave test of their May highs into the 6/20-5/21 Full Moon Timing Window before starting a C-Wave down on 6/21 that could run into 6/28 before a reversal higher. 

Stocks – The SPX gave us a Wave A of 4 down into late Monday before a Wave B of 4 bounce into Wednesday's close. We are now looking for a potential Wave C of 4 down into 6/28.

Gold – Gold is declining in a Wave C down that is testing recent lows at $2304 - price pattern and volume argue for an undercut low on Thursday. After the PCE inflation report early Friday, a reversal higher is possible. 

Silver –  Silver is in a C-Wave down that tested $28.73 late Tuesday - holding $28.73 after Friday's PCE inflation report would be bullish. 

Bonds – Bonds declined in an EW a-b-c correction from 120'24.

Crude Oil – After testing $82 overnight Monday, crude oil continues to consolidate sideways. 

Dollar Index – The USD is coiling before a rally attempt to test 107.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/27-6/28.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 25, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX reversed higher today but on less volume than we saw on the decline on Monday. The Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a "turning point day" in our work and we closed the session with a negative bias for Wednesday's trade. The rally on Tuesday looked "3-wave corrective" to us and we expect more SPX and NDX weakness on Wednesday. We expected a volatile SPX this week to rebalance sentiment. Gold and silver tested multi-week lows Tuesday and we will be bullish for a reversal higher by Friday's PCE report if gold can hold $2304 and silver can hold $28.73.  Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 50% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum. We are currently trading gold, silver and oil stocks with 25% of our cash. 

6/25/24 (Commentary for Tuesday)  The SPX and NDX have declined in a 4th wave from 6/20 and so far the pullback was just a 3-wave affair(Wave A of 4?) going into Tuesday and perhaps a Wave B of 4 going into Tuesday's close. We may see a Wave C of 4 start on Wednesday. Since we are expecting a volatile week, another decline in the SPX and NDX on Wednesday would not surprise us. By week's end our bias is for a strong reversal up after the PCE inflation report in the SPX and NDX that could make a new ATH by 7/12 or so. After testing $82 overnight Monday, crude oil gave us a small 3-wave correction. Gold and silver declined in a Wave C to test recent lows - the Moon is in the sign of Aquarius until Wednesday which correlates with lows in the PM sector. The SPX made a 5th wave higher from its 4/19 low on the daily chart and we made another ATH at 5505.53 before kicking off a 4th wave correction from 6/20 which could end by 6/28. From the Nasdaq solar-lunar cycles, we are expecting big volatility toward the end of this week in the NDX.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX and NDX both made a new ATH on 6/20 going into the Full Moon Timing Window and then gave us a Key Reversal Day down - we are now seeing a 4th wave correction in the SPX into 6/28. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold and silver both rallied in a B-Wave test of their May highs into the 6/20-5/21 Full Moon Timing Window before starting a C-Wave down on Friday that could run into 6/28 before a reversal higher. 

Stocks – The SPX gave us a Wave A of 4 down into late Monday before a Wave B of 4 bounce into Tuesday - which is a turning point day in our work. We are now looking for a potential Wave C of 4 down into 6/28.

Gold – Gold is declining in a Wave C down that is testing recent lows at $2304 - if gold can hold $2304 after the PCE inflation report, a reversal higher is possible. 

Silver –  Silver is in a C-Wave down that is tested $28.73 late Tuesday - holding $28.73 after Friday's PCE inflation report would be bullish. 

Bonds – Bonds are bullishly consolidating sideways from 120'24.

Crude Oil – After testing $82 overnight Monday, crude oil gave us a small 3-wave correction on Tuesday. 

Dollar Index – The USD could be coiling before another rally attempt to test 106.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/24-6/25.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 24, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX continued their decline from 6/20 which looks like a 4th wave correction. The SPX is close to finishing a 3-wave correction going into Tuesday and we could see a reversal higher - the Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turning point day in our work. We are expecting more SPX volatility into the end of the week to rebalance sentiment. Gold and silver rallied hard into the Full Moon Timing Window in a B-Wave test of the May highs and we may have seen a C-Wave down for the PM sector into Monday/Tuesday.  Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 50% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum. We are currently trading gold, silver and oil stocks with 25% of our cash. 

6/24/24 (Commentary for Monday)  The SPX and NDX have declined in a 4th wave from 6/20 and so far the pullback has been a 3-wave affair. Since we are expecting a volatile week, a rebound in the SPX and NDX on Tuesday would not surprise us. By week's end we could see a strong reversal up in the SPX and NDX that could make a new ATH by 7/12 or so. Crude oil is testing $82 overnight Monday and the oil stocks (XLE) are rotating into rally mode. Gold and silver rallied in a B-Wave test into the 6/21 Full Moon and then started a C-Wave down that could make lower lows into Wednesday - the Moon is in the sign of Aquarius which correlates with lows in the PM sector. The SPX made a 5th wave higher from its 4/19 low on the daily chart and we made another ATH at 5505.53 before kicking off a 4th wave correction from 6/20 which could end by 6/28. We are expecting big volatility toward the end of this week in the NDX from its solar-lunar cycles.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX and NDX both made a new ATH on Thursday going into the Full Moon Timing Window and then gave us a Key Reversal Day down - we are now seeing a 4th wave correction in the SPX into 6/28. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold and silver both rallied in a B-Wave test of their May highs before starting a C-Wave down on Friday that could run into Wednesday before a reversal higher. 

Stocks – The SPX gave us a new ATH at 5505.53 early 6/20 but ended the day with a Key Reversal Day down. We are now seeing a 4th-wave correction down that could last until 6/28.

Gold – Gold rallied in B-Wave into Friday's Full Moon before reversing down in a C-Wave that could continue into Wednesday. 

Silver –  Silver tested $30.90 on 6/20 and started a C-Wave down that could test $28.73 by Wednesday. 

Bonds – Bonds are bullishly consolidating sideways from 120'24.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $82 overnight Monday and XOM and CVX are rotating into rally mode.

Dollar Index – The USD could be coiling before another rally attempt.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/24-6/25.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - June 23, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX gave us just small declines on quad-witch expiration on Friday, but the table is set for extreme volatility in the coming week. From several cyclical studies, we may have seen a short -term high at SPX 5505 on 6/20 and could see some downside volatility in the coming week to balance sentiment. As we predicted, the SPX made a new ATH in the Full Moon Timing Window before reversing down in 5-waves into Friday. Friday was a Quad Witch option expiration and we did get a lower high, lower low day on the SPX with high volume. Gold and silver rallied hard into the Full Moon Timing Window in a B-Wave test of the May highs and we may have seen the start of a C-Wave down for the PM sector into Monday/Tuesday.  Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 50% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum. We are currently trading gold, silver and oil stocks with 25% of our cash. 

6/23/24 (Commentary for Sunday)  The SPX and NDX broke higher in a 5th wave before reversing down impulsively to score a Key Reversal Day on Thursday. On quad-witch Friday option expiration, the SPX gave us a lower high and a lower low on big volume. The SPX and NDX both gave us a new ATH and then a Key Reversal Day down in the 6/20-6/24 Full Moon Timing Window and we are now expecting a correction into next week. Crude oil rallied to $81.79 on Friday's Full Moon and then started a correction. Gold and silver rallied in a B-Wave test into the 6/21 Full Moon and then started a C-Wave down that could make lower lows on Monday/Tuesday. The SPX made a 5th wave higher from its 4/19 low on the daily chart and we made another ATH at 5505.53 into the Full Moon Timing Window before correcting in 5-waves down. We are expecting some downside volatility into the coming week.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX and NDX both made a new ATH on Thursday going into the Full Moon Timing Window and then gave us a Key Reversal Day down - we could now see a correction into the last week of June. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold and silver both rallied in a B-Wave test of their May highs before starting a C-Wave down on Friday that could run into Monday/Tuesday. 

Stocks – The SPX gave us a new ATH at 5505.53 early Thursday but ended the day with a Key Reversal Day down. We are now looking for a volatile correction down into next week.

Gold – Gold rallied in B-Wave into Friday's Full Moon before reversing down in a C-Wave that could continue into Monday/Tuesday. 

Silver –  Silver tested $30.90 overnight Thursday and started a C-Wave down that should undercut $28.73 on Monday/Tuesday. 

Bonds – Bonds are bullishly consolidating sideways from 120'24.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $81.79 on Friday's Full Moon before correcting.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 105.92 on Friday before correcting.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/24-6/25.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 20, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX both rallied in a 5th wave higher and made new ATHs early before reversing down to give us a Key Reversal Day. The SPX made a new ATH at 5505.53 in the 6/20-6/24 Full Moon Timing Window that includes the 6/21 Summer solstice. As we predicted, the SPX made a new ATH in the Full Moon Timing Window before reversing down in 5-waves. Friday is a Quad Witch option expiration and we are looking for a volatile day. Gold and silver rallied hard into the Full Moon Timing Window but our bias is that this is just a B-Wave test of the May highs and we should see a C-Wave down into Monday.  Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 50% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum. We are currently trading gold, silver and oil stocks with 25% of our cash. 

6/20/24 (Commentary for Thursday)  The SPX and NDX broke higher in a 5th wave before reversing down impulsively to score a Key Reversal Day. The SPX and NDX gave us a Key Reversal Day down in the 6/20-6/24 Full Moon Timing Window and we are now expecting a correction into next week. Tomorrow is Quad Witching Option Expiration and we are expecting a volatile day. Crude oil rallied to $81.52 into the Full moon Timing Window. Gold and silver are rallying in a possible B-Wave test into the 6/21-6/24 Full Moon Timing Window. The SPX made a 5th wave higher from its 4/19 low on the daily chart but that 5th wave appears to be "extending"  and we made another ATH at 5505.53 into the Full Moon Timing Window. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX and NDX both made a new ATH on Thursday going into the Full Moon Timing Window and then gave us a Key Reversal Day down - we could now see a correction into next week. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold and silver are rallying into the Full Moon in what could be a B-Wave test of their May highs - we could see a C-Wave down start Friday. 

Stocks – The SPX gave us a new ATH at 5505.53 early Thursday but ended the day with a Key Reversal Day down. We are now looking for a correction into next week.

Gold – Gold is rallying in B-Wave into Friday's Full Moon - a C-Wave down could start by Friday. 

Silver –  Silver tested $30.90 overnight Thursday and started a correction. 

Bonds – Bonds are bullishly consolidating sideways from 120'24.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $81.52 Thursday on its rally into the Full Moon.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 105.84 Thursday evening and is pressuring silver down.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/21.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 18, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX both gave us a sideways 4th wave action on Tuesday before the Wednesday holiday. The SPX is on track to make a 5th wave higher into the Full Moon on Friday and make another ATH above 5490.38. Our TRIN-5 indicator remains > 6.0 at 6.07 which shows panic selling and gives us a bullish bias going into the 6/21 Full Moon. The rally pattern from 4/19 could be a 5-wave rally pattern with an "extended 5th wave" or a nested 1-2, i-ii pattern that is sub-dividing up in a 3rd wave higher - either pattern is short-term bullish. Bonds are tracing out a "cup and handle" pattern on the hourly chart which projects to higher highs above 120'24. Gold continues to consolidate sideways and is holding $2343 Wednesday evening - more consolidation looks likely for the PM sector into the 34-day Fibonacci step out for gold in the 6/21-6/24 turn window. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 50% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum. We are currently trading gold, silver and oil stocks with 25% of our cash. 

6/18/24 (Commentary for Tuesday)  The SPX gave us a sideways consolidation today that managed a slight new ATH at 5490.38. Our "oversold" TRIN-5 closing values above 6.00 are still contrary bullish and caution against trying to short the stock market going into the 6/21 Full Moon. It appears that the 5th wave up from the 4/19 low is "extending" or we have an even more bullish 3rd wave sub-dividing up - either EW count is short-term bullish going into 6/21. Gold and silver gave us a 5-wave down move on 6/12 and that argues for more correction into the 6/21-6/24 Full Moon Timing Window. The SPX made a 5th wave higher from its 4/19 low on the daily chart but that 5th wave appears to be "extending"  which argues for higher SPX highs into 6/21. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX and NDX both made a new ATH on Monday, and we could now see a sideways consolidation for a few days before the SPX makes another new ATH in the 6/21-6/24 Full Moon Timing Window. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold and silver gave us 5-wave down moves on Wednesday which argues for more consolidation in price and time into 6/24 before a reversal higher after its Fibonacci 34-day step out from the 5/20 ATH in gold. 

Stocks – The SPX got to a new marginal ATH at 5490.38, but the pattern today resembled a 4th wave consolidation pattern that could reverse up in a 5th wave  by Friday's Full Moon. 

Gold – How gold trades into the 6/21-6/24 Full moon Timing Window will be enlightening for the PM sector. 

Silver –  We are looking for silver to undercut $28.73 by the 6/21-6/24 Full Moon Timing Window. 

Bonds – Bonds have traced out a bullish "cup and handle" pattern on the hourly chart and are poised to break out above 120'24.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $80.88 into the evening.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding above 105.26 into Tuesday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/21.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 17, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The stock market blow off from 4/19 continued with a vengeance today and both the NDX and SPX made new ATHs.  Our TRIN-5 indicator closed at 6.37 which shows panic selling and gives us a bullish bias going into the 6/21 Full Moon. The rally pattern from 4/19 could be a 5-wave rally pattern with an "extended 5th wave" or a nested 1-2, i-ii pattern that is sub-dividing up in a 3rd wave higher - either pattern is short-term bullish. Bonds are tracing out a "cup and handle" pattern on the hourly chart which projects to higher highs above 120'24. Gold peaked early Wednesday at $2357 and then declined in an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart - more consolidation looks likely for the PM sector into the 34-day Fibonacci step out for gold on 6/21-6/24. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 50% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum. We are currently trading gold, silver and oil stocks with 25% of our cash. 

6/17/24 (Commentary for Monday)  The SPX started a sideways consolidation on 6/12 that continued into this morning - SPX and NDX wasted no time blasting to new ATHs. Our high TRIN-5 closing values above 6.00 are still bullish and caution against trying to short the stock market going into the 6/21 Full Moon. It appears that the 5th wave up from the 4/19 low is "extending" or we have an even more bullish 3rd wave sub-dividing up - either EW count is short-term bullish going into 6/21. Gold and silver gave us a 5-wave down move on 6/12 and that argues for more correction into the 6/21-6/24 Full Moon Timing Window. The SPX made a 5th wave higher from its 4/19 low on the daily chart but that 5th wave appears to be "extending"  which argues for higher SPX highs into 6/21. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX and NDX both made a new ATH on Monday, and we could now see a sideways consolidation for a few days before the SPX makes another new high in the 6/21-6/24 Full Moon Timing Window. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold and silver gave us 5-wave down moves on Wednesday which argues for more consolidation in price and time into 6/24 before a reversal higher after its Fibonacci 34-day step out from the 5/20 ATH in gold. 

Stocks – The SPX shot to a new ATH at 5488.5 on Monday and could see an even higher high by Friday's Full Moon. 

Gold – We are looking for more decline in gold to undercut $2304 by the 6/21-6/24 Full Moon Timing Window. 

Silver –  We are looking for silver to undercut $28.73 by the 6/21-6/24 Full Moon Timing Window. 

Bonds – Bonds have traced out a bullish "cup and handle" pattern on the hourly chart and are poised to break out above 120'24.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $80 into Monday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD corrected back to 105.4 on Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/21.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - June 16, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: We were looking for a correction between 6/12 and 6/20 and it has manifested as a sideways consolidation in the SPX. The stock market continues it its blow off mode from last October and the next projected new ATH in the SPX could happen by the 6/21 Full Moon above SPX 5447.25. Our TRIN-5 indicator closed at 6.41 which shows panic selling and gives us a bullish bias going into the 6/21 Full Moon. The rally pattern from 4/19 could be a 5-wave rally pattern with an "extended 5th wave" or a nested 1-2, i-ii pattern that is sub-dividing up in a 3rd wave higher - either pattern is short-term bullish. Bonds are tracing out a "cup and handle" pattern on the hourly chart which looks short-term bullish. Gold peaked early Wednesday at $2357 and then declined in an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart - more consolidation looks likely for the PM sector into the 34-day Fibonacci step out for gold on 6/21-6/24. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 50% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum. We are currently trading gold, silver and oil stocks with 25% of our cash. 

6/16/24 (Commentary for Sunday)  The SPX started a sideways consolidation on 6/12 that should continue into this week - the high TRIN-5 closing values above 6.00 last week are bullish and warn about trying to short the stock market going into the 6/21 Full Moon. It appears that the 5th wave up from the 4/19 low is "extending" or we have an even more bullish 3rd wave sub-dividing up - either EW count is short-term bullish  going into 6/21. Gold and silver gave us a 5-wave down move on 6/12 and that argues for more correction into the 6/21-6/24 Full Moon Timing Window. The SPX made a 5th wave higher from its 4/19 low on the daily chart but that wave appears to be "extending"  which argues for  higher SPX highs into 6/21. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The NDX made a new ATH on Friday but the SPX did not - we could now see a sideways consolidation for a few days before the SPX makes another new high in the 6/21-6/24 Full Moon Timing Window. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold and silver gave us 5-wave down moves on Wednesday which argues for more consolidation in price and time into the 6/21-6/24 Full Moon Timing Window.  Gold could correct more into 6/24 before reversing higher into July. 

Stocks – The SPX has been giving us a sideways consolidation since 6/12, but we are looking for a new ATH above 5447.25 by the 6/21 Full Moon.

Gold – We are looking for more decline in gold to undercut $2304 by the 6/21-6/24 Full Moon Timing Window. 

Silver –  We are looking for silver to undercut $28.73 by the 6/21-6/24 Full Moon Timing Window. 

Bonds – Bonds have traced out a bullish "cup and handle" pattern on the hourly chart and are poised to break out above 120'24.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is holding at $77.75 Sunday evening .

Dollar Index – The USD tested 105.80 Friday before pulling back.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/21.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 13, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The cooler-than-expected PPI report gave us another gap-up open on the SPX and it appears that the SPX may have finished an EW a-b-c correction from early Wednesday. The SPX appears poised to rally up early Friday. Our TRIN-5 indicator closed at 6.15 which shows panic selling and gives us a bullish bias going into Friday. The rally pattern from 4/19 could be a 5-wave rally pattern with an "extended 5th wave" or a nested 1-2, i-ii pattern that is sub-dividing up in a 3rd wave higher. Bonds are tracing out a bullish "cup and handle" pattern on the hourly chart which looks short-term bullish. Gold peaked early Wednesday at $2357 and then declined in an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart - more consolidation looks likely for the PM sector into Friday. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 50% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum. We are currently trading gold, silver and oil stocks with 25% of our cash. 

6/13/24 (Commentary for Thursday)  The cooler-than-expected PPI report gave the SPX another gap-up open but overall we declined in an EW a-b-c correction since early Wednesday and reversed up into Thursday's close. It appears that the 5th wave up from the 4/19 low is "extending" or we have an even more bullish 3rd wave sub-dividing up. Gold and silver gave us a 5-wave down move on Wednesday and that argues for more correction into Friday. The SPX made a 5th wave higher from its 4/19 low on the daily chart but that wave appears to be "extending"  which could give us higher highs on Friday. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  Both the SPX and NDX opened at a new ATH after the cool CPI report early Wednesday - we could see higher highs into Friday if the PPI report early Thursday comes in favorable as well. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold and silver gave us 5-wave down moves on Wednesday which argues for more consolidation in price and time into Friday.  Gold could correct more into 6/24 before reversing higher into July. 

Stocks – After a 3-wave correction since early Wednesday, the SPX appears to be reversing up into late Thursday - the SPX rally could continue into Friday.

Gold – Gold tested $2357 before declining in 5-waves on Wednesday to $2330 - more consolidation into Friday is expected. 

Silver –  Silver tested $30.35 before declining in 5-waves on Wednesday to $28.90 - silver tested our $28.60 target Thursday and may undercut that into Friday. 

Bonds – Bonds have traced out a "cup and handle" pattern on the hourly chart and is short-term bullish.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is continuing a sideways consolidation.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing highs for the week at 105.54 early Friday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/10 and 6/12.