All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 30, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX may have finished the C-Wave down of an EW a-b-c correction  from the 5/23 Full Moon high at 5341. In parallel, the VIX may have finished an a-b-c bounce to 14.88. We are looking for a reversal up early Friday in the SPX - just a 3-wave bounce will tell us that another undercut low is needed to bottom this correction. Bonds are bouncing to 115'24 overnight Thursday and buyers of TLT since yesterday have been rewarded. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 50% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum. We are currently trading gold, silver and oil stocks with 25% of our cash. 

5/30/24 (Commentary for Thursday)  The SPX did give us a B-Wave test of its 5/23 ATH of 5341 on Tuesday by tagging 5316 and gave us a C-Wave down that tested 5222 today. We went cautiously long some TQQQ near the close. Silver gave us a B-Wave test of its recent high at $32.75 Wednesday by pushing to $32.5. However, silver may now be giving us a C-Wave down that could retest $30.24 into next week. The Moon entered Aquarius on 5/27 and that correlated with a short-term low in the PM sector. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a new ATH at 5341 on the 5/23 Full Moon and 3-star critical reversal window - we may have finished an EW a-b-c correction that tested 5222 late today. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold made a new ATH at $2454 on 5/26 and started an EW a-b-c correction down to $2326 on 5/23 - since the Moon entered Aquarius on 5/27, gold made a short-term low.  

Stocks – From the 5/23 ATH at 5341, the SPX may have completed an EW a-b-c correction that tested 5222 late Thursday.

Gold – After making a new ATH on 5/20 at $2454, gold started an EW a-b-c correction that tested $2326 early on 5/23. Gold made a short-term low when the Moon ingressed into Aquarius on 5/27.

Silver –  Silver is sub-dividing down further and may be tracing out an EW a-b-c "flat correction" from its 5/119 high at $32.75.

Bonds – Bonds continue to bounce to 115'19 Thursday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil may need to test $76.15 again to create a short-term low. 

Dollar Index – The USD fell on Thursday but bounced back to 104.83 late.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 5/28.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 29, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX did give us a B-Wave test of the 5/23 Full Moon high Tuesday and then we started a C-Wave down to test the 5/23 low at 5256. At 14.28, the VIX made a multi-week high as the SPX tested its 5/23 low at 5256. The E-mini is close to finishing an EW a-b-c correction Wednesday evening. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 50% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum. We are currently trading gold, silver and oil stocks with 25% of our cash. 

5/29/24 (Commentary for Wednesday)  The SPX did give us a B-Wave test of its 5/23 ATH of 5341 on Tuesday by tagging 5316 and then started the C-Wave down of an EW a-b-c correction that should test 5256. Silver tested its recent high at $32.75 Wednesday by pushing to $32.5 - silver appears to be tracing out a "cup and handle" pattern on the hourly chart that could test $34 soon. The Moon entered Aquarius Monday and that correlates with a short-term low in the PM sector. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a new ATH at 5341 on the 5/23 Full Moon and 3-star critical reversal window - we then just received a just 3-wave pullback into Thursday's close which argues for at least a retest of 5341 this week. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold made a new ATH at $2454 on 5/26 and started an EW a-b-c correction down to $2326 Thursday evening - since the Moon entered Aquarius on 5/27, gold may be near a short-term low.  

Stocks – We view the pullback last week as a Wave A of an EW a-b-c correction. On Tuesday, the SPX gave us a Wave B test and we are now poised for a Wave C down to test lows around 5256.

Gold – After making a new ATH on 5/19 at $2454, gold started an EW a-b-c correction that tested $2326 overnight Thursday. With the Moon entering Aquarius on Monday, we believe that gold has made a short-term low.

Silver –  Silver appears to be tracing out a bullish "cup and handle" pattern on its hourly chart with a near-term target of $34.

Bonds – Bonds continue to pull back to 115'03.

Crude Oil – Crude oil spiked above $80 early Wednesday before pulling back to $79 overnight. 

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 105.17 overnight Wednesday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 5/28.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 28, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX did give us a B-Wave test of the 5/23 Full Moon high today and we may now be primed for a C-Wave down to test the 5/23 low at 5256. The VIX tested its high from last Thursday and that could give us a retest of the Thursday lows for the SPX this week. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 50% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum. We are currently trading gold, silver and oil stocks with 25% of our cash. 

5/28/24 (Commentary for Tuesday)  The SPX made an ATH at 5341 early Thursday after strong NVDA earnings but only gave us a 3-wave pullback into Thursday's close - we are looking at that move as a Wave A of an EW a-b-c correction with today's rally the Wave B. We are looking for a Wave C down to test the lows from Thursday at 5256. Silver looks ready to retest its highs at $32.75. The Moon entered Aquarius Monday and that correlated with a low in the PM sector. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a new ATH at 5341 on the 5/23 Full Moon and 3-star critical reversal day - we then just received a just 3-wave pullback into Thursday's close which argues for at least a retest of 5341 this week. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold made a new ATH at $2454 Sunday evening and started an EW a-b-c correction down to $2326 Thursday evening - since the Moon entered Aquarius on 5/27, gold may be near a short-term low.  

Stocks – We view the pullback last week as a Wave A of an EW a-b-c correction. On Tuesday, the SPX gave us a Wave B test and we are now poised for a Wave C down to test lows around 5256.

Gold – After making a new ATH on 5/19, gold started an EW a-b-c correction that tested $2326 overnight Thursday. With the Moon entering Aquarius on Monday, we believe that gold has made a short-term low.

Silver –  Silver tagged $32.75 5/19 and then started a correction that tested its .382 retracement at $30.24 overnight Thursday - we think that silver is bullish for a retest of its highs soon. 

Bonds – Bonds continue to pull back as rates bounce.

Crude Oil – Crude oil bounced above $80 early Wednesday - we're bullish. 

Dollar Index – The USD is bouncing to test 105.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 5/28.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - May 27, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX peaked on the 5/23 Full Moon and then gave us just a 3-wave decline into Thursday's close. Our bias is that the SPX has a chance of testing the ATH at 5341 by Friday this week. We are not inclined to be bearish this week unless we see some technical evidence of a bigger decline. Our Option Premium Ratio gave us back-to-back readings of 0.50 Thursday(Buy Signal) and that gave us the start of a SPX rally on Friday. We are looking for that rally to continue for at least a test of the 5341 ATH. The VIX made a 52-wk low at 11.54 on Wednesday and confirmed the new ATH in the SPX at 5341 early Thursday - we view this as short-term bullish for the SPX. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 50% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum. We are currently trading gold, silver and oil stocks with 25% of our cash. 

5/24/24 (Commentary for Friday)  The SPX made an ATH at 5341 early Thursday after strong NVDA earnings but only gave us a 3-wave pullback into Thursday's close. Our bias for now is for at least a retest of 5341 this week. Our Option Premium Ratio models gave us a buy signal at the close of Thursday and the VIX confirmed the new high at 5341 which is short-term bullish for the SPX. We also believe that gold is close to a near-term trading low after finishing an EW a-b-c correction. The Moon entered Aquarius Monday and that often correlates with a low in the PM sector. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a new ATH at 5341 on the 5/23 Full Moon and 3-star critical reversal day - we then just received a just 3-wave pullback into Thursday's close which argues for at least a retest of 5341 this week. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold made a new ATH at $2454 Sunday evening and started an EW a-b-c correction down to $2326 Thursday evening - since the Moon entered Aquarius on 5/27, gold may be near a short-term low.  

Stocks – The SPX made a new ATH at 5341 on the 5/23 Full Moon before declining in just 3-waves into Thursday's close which also gave us an Option Premium Ratio buy signal. The rally that started early Friday could test SPX 5341 this week.

Gold – After making a new ATH on 5/19, gold started an EW a-b-c correction that tested $2326 overnight Thursday. With the Moon entering Aquarius on Monday, we may be close to a near-term low in the PM sector.

Silver –  Silver tagged $32.75 5/19 and then started a correction that tested its .382 retracement at $30.24 overnight Thursday - we think that silver may is bullish for a retest of its highs soon. 

Bonds – The bonds may be due for a bounce on Tuesday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil pulled back to test $76.15 early Friday and is bouncing into Monday. 

Dollar Index – The USD pulled back to test 104.58 on Friday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 5/28.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 23, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: After selling off into the close on Wednesday, the SPX rallied hard at the open Thursday, propelled by the earnings beat from NVDA. The SPX made a new ATH at 5341 before stronger than expected PMI numbers brought the market down. After making an ATH, the SPX upside move degenerated into a failed rally and we closed near the lows of the day. If the SPX gives us an undercut low on Friday which would be an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart, that would generate a SELL signal for the stock market and would argue for a longer correction in price and time. The failed rally in the SPX and NDX early Thursday strongly argues for a bigger correction going into June. However, the Option Premium Ratio gave us back-to-back readings of 0.50 Thursday and that argues for a SPX rally to start on Friday. The VIX made a 52-wk low Wednesday below 11.82 and confirmed the new ATH in the SPX at 5341 early Thursday - we view this as short-term bullish for the SPX. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 50% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum. We are currently trading gold, silver and oil stocks with 25% of our cash. 

5/23/24 (Commentary for Thursday)  On the back of the NVDA earnings rally, the SPX did punch higher to a new ATH at 5341 before the stock market rally failed and headed south to take out the lows from yesterday at SPX 5286. How the SPX trades early Friday will set the short-term trend - an undercut of Thursday's low at 5256 would give us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart and argue for a longer correction in time and price into June. The VIX actually made a 52-wk low below 11.82 Wednesday morning and this now confirms the new ATH at 5341 which is short-term bullish. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX corrected into 5/2 on its 34-day Fib step out from the 3/28 ATH, and we got a bullish reversal higher that took us to a new ATH above 5300 at 5326 on 5/16. Taking a 21-day Fibonacci step out from the 5/2 low argued for a potential SPX higher high on the 5/23 Full Moon - WHICH WE GOT TODAY. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold made a new ATH at $2454 Sunday evening and started an EW a-b-c correction down to $2326 Thursday evening. Silver made a weekly breakout close above $31.50 on 5/17 before falling to test its 0.382 retrace at $30.24 on Thursday. 

Stocks – The NVDA earnings rally got the SPX to a new ATH at 5341 before the market reversed down hard. How we trade early Friday will set the short-term trend.

Gold – After making a new ATH Sunday evening, gold started an EW a-b-c correction that is testing $2326 overnight Thursday.

Silver –  Silver tagged $32.75 Sunday evening and started a correction that is testing its .382 retracement at $30.24 overnight Thursday. 

Bonds – After the strong PMI numbers, the bonds fell to test 116'15 before bouncing.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is pulling back to test $76.43 Thursday evening. 

Dollar Index – The USD is rallying to test 105.12 Thursday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 5/20-5/23 which includes a Fed Wednesday and a 5/23 Full Moon.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 22, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX came down hard today into the 5/22-5/24 Full Moon Timing Window. The Fed minutes included the phrase "higher for longer"  and that pressured the markets down into the close. Did we finish an EW a-b-c correction from 5/16 for the SPX into the Full Moon? The market liked the NVDA earnings after the market closed and the stock futures are up big and are pointing to a gap-up open early Thursday. A failed rally in the SPX and NDX early Thursday will strongly argue for a bigger correction going into June. We were wrong about the SPX reversing up after the Fed minutes. Can the NVDA earnings rally overcome Wednesday's negative tape. How the SPX trades Thursday will set the short-term trend. The VIX made a 52-wk low today below 11.82 and confirmed the recent new ATH in the SPX - we view this as short-term bullish for the SPX. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 50% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum. We are currently trading gold, silver and oil stocks with 25% of our cash. 

5/22/24 (Commentary for Wednesday)  The NDX made another new ATH this morning before the hawkish Fed minutes tripped the market up. However, the glowing NVDA earning report after hours has the stock futures strongly higher - did we finish an EW a-b-c correction from 5/16 into today? How the market trades on Thursday will set the short-term trend - a failed SPX rally argues for a longer correction in time and price into June. The VIX actually made a 52-wk low below 11.82 this morning and this now confirms the new ATH in the SPX from 5/16 which is short-term bullish. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX corrected into 5/2 on its 34-day Fib step out from the 3/28 ATH, and we got a bullish reversal higher that took us to a new ATH above 5300 at 5326 on 5/16. Taking a 21-day Fibonacci step out from the 5/2 low argues for a potential SPX higher high on the 5/23 Full Moon. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold made a new ATH at $2454 Sunday evening and started an EW a-b-c correction down. Silver made a weekly breakout close above $31.50. Bullish "cup and handle" patterns on the hourly GDX and SIL charts argue for a spike higher into the 5/23 Full Moon. 

Stocks – Did the SPX finish an EW a-b-c correction from 5/16 into today? Can the NVDA rally reverse the SPX higher early Thursday?  A failed rally would argue for a bigger creation in price and time going into June.

Gold – After making a new ATH Sunday evening, gold started an EW a-b-c correction that is testing $2365 overnight Wednesday.

Silver –  Silver tested $32.75 Sunday evening and started a correction that should test the .382 retracement at $30.27 overnight Wednesday. 

Bonds – Bonds are bouncing to 117'08 Wednesday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is pulling back to test $77 early Thursday. 

Dollar Index – The USD is rallying to test 104.9 Wednesday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 5/20-5/23 which includes a Fed Wednesday and a 5/23 Full Moon.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 21, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The NDX made another new ATH today, but the SPX continued its sideways correction from 5/16 which should continue into Fed Wednesday before a 5th-wave reversal higher. The big picture trend remains higher into the 5/17-5/23 high-energy turn window which includes some of the most important astro-finance conjunctions of the year. Our bias is for one more higher high above SPX 5326.49 into the 5/23 Full Moon before a correction. The downtrend in the VIX under 12.5 has kept us on the bullish side of the market so far, but we may be close to a turn. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 50% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum. We are currently trading gold, silver and oil stocks with 25% of our cash. 

5/21/24 (Commentary for Tuesday)  Not much has changed since Monday, but the NDX made another new ATH while the SPX continues its sideways correction into the 5/22-5/23 Full Moon Timing Window. This week is a Fed week and we expect a possible 5th-wave reversal higher for the SPX after the Fed minutes on Wednesday. The SPX has been correcting sideways since Thursday and that coiling could give us another spike higher after the Fed minutes. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX corrected into 5/2 on its 34-day Fib step out from the 3/28 ATH, and we got a bullish reversal higher that took us to a new ATH above 5300 at 5326 on 5/16. Taking a 21-day Fibonacci step out from the 5/2 low argues for a potential SPX higher high on the 5/23 Full Moon. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold made a new ATH at $2454 Sunday evening and started an EW a-b-c correction down. Silver made a weekly breakout close above $31.50. Bullish "cup and handle" patterns on the hourly GDX and SIL charts argue for a spike higher into the 5/23 Full Moon. 

Stocks – The SPX has made a sideways consolidation into the 5/17-5/22 high-energy turn window(4th wave?) - we could see a 5th-wave higher start after the Fed minutes on Wednesday.

Gold – After making a new ATH Sunday evening, gold started an EW a-b-c correction that continues into Fed Wednesday.

Silver –  Silver tested $32.75 Sunday evening and started a correction into Fed Wednesday. We could see a silver reversal higher after the Fed minutes.

Bonds – Bonds pulled back to 117'01 Tuesday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is pulling back to $77.57 into the 5/22-5/23 Full Moon Timing Window. 

Dollar Index – The USD is holding 104.62 Tuesday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 5/20-5/23 which includes a Fed Wednesday and a 5/23 Full Moon.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 20, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The NDX made a new ATH today, but the SPX continues a sideways correction from Thursday which could continue into Fed Wednesday. The SPX may have just given us a B-Wave test of the high at 5326 and then rolled over in a small C-Wave down. The big picture trend continues higher into the 5/17-5/23 high-energy turn window which includes some of the most important astro-finance conjunctions of the year. We may be close to a short-term high in the SPX and we are seeing some complacency in the VIX. Our bias is for one more higher high above SPX 5326.49  into the 5/23 Full Moon before a correction. Our May bias was for a rally into last week that could make an ATH and we got that - we don't want to be greedy here. The downtrend in the VIX under 12.5 has kept us on the bullish side of the market so far, but we may be lose to a turn. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 50% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum. We are currently trading gold, silver and oil stocks with 25% of our cash. 

5/20/24 (Commentary for Monday)  The SPX has given us a 300 point rally from the 5/2 low and some ATHs in the SPX, NDX and IWM were made. However, we prefer not to be greedy here as the Sun ingresses from Taurus to Gemini on 5/20. This week is a Fed week and we made a B-Wave test of the 5326 high Monday and should now see a retracement into Tuesday/Wednesday. The SPX has been correcting sideways since Thursday but that coiling could give us another spike higher after the Fed minutes on Wednesday. The GDX and SIL(silver stocks) have both triggered a "cup and handle pattern" on the hourly chart and this is bullish for a run higher into the 5/23 Full Moon. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX corrected into 5/2 on its 34-day Fib step out from the 3/28 ATH, and we got a bullish reversal higher that took us to a new ATH above 5300 at 5326 on 5/16. Taking a 21-day Fibonacci step out from the 5/2 low argues for a potential higher high on the 5/23 Full Moon. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold made a new ATH at $2454 Sunday evening and started  Friday. Silver made a weekly breakout close above $31.50. Bullish "cup and handle" patterns on the hourly GDX and SIL charts argue for a spike higher into the 5/23 Full Moon. 

Stocks – The SPX made another ATH at 5326 before correcting into Friday. Just a 3-wave correction into the 5/17-5/22 high-energy turn window(4th wave?) would be bullish for a 5th wave higher into the 5/23 Full Moon.

Gold – After making a new ATH Sunday evening, gold started an EW a-b-c correction that continues into Monday evening.

Silver –  Silver tested $32.75 Sunday evening and started a correction. The daily and weekly close above $30.10 is very bullish for a spike into the 5/23 Full Moon.

Bonds – Bonds are pulling back to 116'30 Monday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is pulling back to $78.80 on Monday evening. 

Dollar Index – The USD bounced to 104.62 Monday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 5/20-5/23 which includes a Fed Wednesday and a 5/23 Full Moon.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - May 19, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX was virtually unchanged on expiration Friday, but the big picture trend has been higher into the 5/17-5/22 high-energy turn window which includes some of the most important astro-finance conjunctions of the year. We may be close to a short-term high in the SPX and we are seeing some complacency in the VIX. Our bias is for one more higher high in the SPX into the 5/23 Full Moon and Fed Wednesday before a correction. Our May bias was for a rally into last week that could make an ATH and we got that - we don't want to be greedy here. The Option Premium Ratio gave us  back-to-back readings of 0.49 on 5/10-5/13 and that was a short-term buy signal for the SPX which got fulfilled into Thursday. The downtrend in the VIX under 12.5 has kept us on the bullish side of the market so far, but we may be lose to a turn. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 50% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum. We are currently trading gold, silver and oil stocks with 25% of our cash. 

5/19/24 (Commentary for Sunday)  The SPX has given us a 300 point rally from the 5/2 low and some ATHs in the SPX, NDX and IWM were made. However, we prefer not to be greedy here as the Sun ingresses from Taurus to Gemini on 5/20. The coming week is a Fed week and cycles argue for another SPX ATH on Monday before a retracement into Fed Wednesday. The SPX went sideways on option expiration Friday but that coiling could give us another spike higher on Monday. The downtrend in the VIX is close to over and we could see a SPX correction(4th wave ?) start by the 5/23 Full Moon. this has certainly lifted the SPX this week. The GDX and SIL(silver stocks) have both triggered a "cup and handle pattern" on the hourly chart and this is bullish for a run higher into the 5/23 Full Moon. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX corrected into 5/2 on its 34-day Fib step out from the 3/28 ATH, and we got a bullish reversal higher that took us to a new ATH above 5300 at 5326. Taking a 21-day Fibonacci step out from the 5/2 low argues for a potential high on the 5/23 Full Moon. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold tested $2400 Wednesday evening and is consolidating sideways into Friday. Silver made a weekly breakout close above $31.50. Bullish "cup and handle" patterns on the hourly GDX and SIL charts argue for a spike higher into the 5/23 Full Moon. 

Stocks – The SPX made another ATH at 5326 before correcting into Friday. Just a 3-wave correction into the 5/17-5/22 high-energy turn window(4th wave?) would be bullish for a 5th wave higher into the 5/23 Full Moon.

Gold – Gold tested $2420 Friday evening and is consolidating sideways into Sunday evening.

Silver –  Silver tested $31.85 Friday evening and is consolidating sideways into Sunday evening. The daily and weekly close above $30.10 is very bullish for a spike into the 5/23 Full Moon.

Bonds – Bonds pulled back to 117'10 Friday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $79.52  going into late Friday. 

Dollar Index – The USD pulled back to 104.58 late Friday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 5/20-5/23 which includes a Fed Wednesday and a 5/23 Full Moon.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 16, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: From 5/2, the SPX has gained 300 points and we started seeing some profit taking today. A 3-wave pullback from now into the 5/17-5/22 high-energy turn window would be bullish for more rally. Our May bias was for a rally into this week that could make an ATH and we got that - the SPX actually made another intraday ATH today at 5326. The low VIX readings below 12.5 are showing a complacent market here and we preferer to take it easy going into the monthly option expiration Friday. The Option Premium Ratio gave us  back-to-back readings of 0.49 on Friday/Monday and that was a short-term buy signal for the SPX which got fulfilled into today The downtrend in the VIX under 12.5 has kept us on the bullish side of the market for the last two weeks but some complacency may be setting in. The VIX declined with the SPX today and that lack of correlation may be a warning sign. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 50% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum. We are currently trading gold, silver and oil stocks with 25% of our cash. 

5/16/24 (Commentary for Thursday)  The SPX now has a 300 point rally from the 5/2 low and some ATHs in the SPX, NDX and IWM were made. The profit taking today may be the start of a pullback into the 5/17-5/22 high-energy turn window and so we are taking it easy going into Friday's monthly option expiration. in the wake of the cooler-than-expected CPI inflation report, The 10-yr US rate has broken down through its channel and tested 4.30% - this has certainly lifted the SPX this week. The CBOE put/call ratio spiked to 2.5 on 5/6 and registered enough fear for a SPX rally into 5/17-5/20 which we have seen. The GDX and SIL(silver stocks) have both given us a "cup and handle pattern" on the hourly chart and this is bullish for a run higher into the 5/23 Full Moon..   

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX corrected into 5/2 on its 34-day Fib step out from the 3/28 ATH, and we got a bullish reversal higher that took us to a new ATH above 5300 at 5326. Just a 3-wave correction into the 5/17-5/22 turn window (4th wave?)  could give us a 5th wave higher at some point next week.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold tested $2400 Wednesday evening and is consolidating sideways into Friday. Bullish "cup and handle" patterns on the hourly GDX and SIL charts argue for a spike higher into the 5/23 Full Moon. 

Stocks – The SPX made another ATH at 5326 before correction. Just a 3-wave correction into the 5/17-5/22 high-energy turn window(4th wave?) would be bullish for a 5th wave higher to start some time next week.

Gold – Gold tested $2402 Wednesday evening and is consolidating sideways into Friday.

Silver –  Silver tested $30.10 Wednesday evening and is consolidating sideways. A daily close above $30.10 would be very bullish.

Bonds – Bonds spiked to 118'23 early Thursday before correcting.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is holding near $79.10  into Friday's OPEC announcement. 

Dollar Index – The USD is rebounding to 104.58 overnight.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 5/14-5/15.