All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 29, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: On a FOMC week the tendency is for the SPX to make a higher high on Monday and then correct into the Fed minutes on Wednesday. We saw the SPX open higher to make a pattern completion from last week before it corrected in 3-waves in the afternoon. The SPX rallied back into the close but it could be a wave 2. The NYSE breadth held up nicely today and a bullish consolidation into the Wednesday Fed minutes would be ideal for the bullish case. Many analysts are expecting a longer correction here in time and price - however, our Option Premium Ratio model argues that a bullish advance is starting in the SPX similar to the move from late October 2023. Our bias is to buy the dips for a strong SPX rally into late May. The collapse in the VIX also keeps us on the bullish side of the market. The strong NYSE market breadth suggests that getting a Zweig Breadth Thrust signal, like in late October 2023, is possible in the next two market days - this is something to watch. Gold  tested $2364 on Friday morning and is now correcting to test $2332 early Tuesday. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 50% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum. We are currently trading gold, silver and oil stocks with 25% of our cash. 

4/29/24 (Commentary for Monday)  Rallies in TSLA and AAPL took the SPX to a pattern completion early Monday before the afternoon correction. How the market trades into Wednesday will be key for the SPX trade into May. Our Option Premium Ratio model is arguing for a stock market rally like late October which gave us a Zweig Breadth Thrust signal and a powerful SPX rally into March. The stock market trade into Wednesday will enlighten us. Our focus is buying gold, silver and oil stocks on dips. The blow out earnings in Newmont Thursday morning was met with huge fund buying - we will now focus on Barrick Gold's earnings before the market on Wednesday.  We are looking for a strong SPX rally going into late May and we expect the GDX to outperform the SPX. The VIX spiked up in a 5th wave to 21.36 after hours on 4/18 and made a pattern completion before collapsing into Monday - this keeps us on the bullish side of the market here. Gold tested $2364 early Friday before pulling back to $2332 Monday evening - gold may consolidate more, but the surprises in gold will be to the upside. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The extremely overbought February & March monthly candles for the SPX argued for a stock correction going into 4/22-4/24 Full Moon Timing Window and WE HAVE MADE A SHORT_TERM LOW late on 4/19. If the SPX can bullishly consolidate into Wednesday, we may get a a bullish signal from the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator like in late October.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold made a blow-off high as we entered the Mercury Midpoint cycle on 4/12  and found resistance at its 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $2441. We saw a B-Wave test of the high on 4/18 after the Israeli attack on Iran that touched $2423. On 4/23, we saw a C-Wave down that tested $2304 on the Full Moon and Comex gold option expiration before rebounding to $2364 early Friday. 

Stocks – The SPX could rallied into Monday to complete a 5-wave EW pattern and then we got a 3-wave correction into the afternoon. We are bullish here and are buying the dips for a strong rally into late May.

Gold – Gold tested Fibonacci extension resistance at $2448.8 and fell hard, but gold coiled bullishly and made a B-Wave test of the highs 4/18 before pulling back. A C-Wave down into the 4/23 Full Moon Tuesday tested $2304 and gold rebounded to $2364 early Friday before pulling back to $2332 Monday evening. We are looking for the gold stocks to lead here.

Silver – Silver tested $28.31 early Friday before correcting to test $27 on Monday evening.

Bonds – Bonds are rallying to test 114'19 Monday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is correcting to test $82.42 Monday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding 106 into Monday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 5/1 and 5/3.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - April 28, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The cooler than feared PCE inflation report sparked a rally Friday that lasted into the close. We could see more upside early Monday to complete 5-waves up on the SPX and then a correction. We may see more market consolidation into the first three days of the coming week. Many analysts are expecting a longer correction here in time and price - however, our Option Premium Ratio model argues that a bullish advance is starting in the SPX similar to the move from late October 2023. Our bias is to buy the dips for a strong SPX rally into late May. The collapse in the VIX also keeps us on the bullish side of the market. The strong NYSE market breadth suggests that getting a Zweig Breadth Thrust signal, like in late October 2023,  is possible in the next three market days - this is something to watch. Gold  tested $2304 into Tuesday's Full Moon and Comex option expiration and then rallied into Friday at $2364 before more sideways consolidation. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 50% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum. We are currently trading gold, silver and oil stocks with 25% of our cash. 

4/28/24 (Commentary for Sunday)  The MSFT and GOOGL earnings and a cooler than expected PCE report sparked a rally on Friday that should continue early Monday. How the market trades into Wednesday will be key for the SPX trade into May. Our Option Premium Ratio model is arguing for a stock market rally like late October which gave us a Zweig Breadth Thrust signal and a powerful SPX rally into March. The market trade into Wednesday will enlighten us. Our focus is buying gold, silver and oil stocks on dips. The blow out earnings in Newmont Thursday morning was met with huge fund buying - we will now focus on Barrick Gold's earnings before the market on Wednesday.  We are looking for a strong SPX rally going into late May and we expect the GDX to outperform the SPX. The VIX spiked up in a 5th wave to 21.36 after hours on 4/18 and made a pattern completion before collapsing last week - this keeps us on the bullish side of the market here. Gold gave us a C-Wave Wave pullback into the 4/23 Full Moon Tuesday and Comex Option expiration and tested $2304 before rallying up into $2364 on Friday - gold may consolidate more, but the surprises in gold will be to the upside. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The extremely overbought February & March monthly candles for the SPX argued for a stock correction going into 4/22-4/24 Full Moon Timing Window and WE HAVE MADE A SHORT_TERM LOW. If the SPX can bullishly consolidate into Wednesday, we may get a a bullish signal from the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator like in late October.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold made a blow-off high as we entered the Mercury Midpoint cycle on 4/12  and found resistance at its 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $2441. We saw a B-Wave test of the high on 4/18 after the Israeli attack on Iran that touched $2423. On Tuesday, we saw a C-Wave down that tested $2304 on the Full Moon and Comex gold option expiration. 

Stocks – The SPX rallied Friday on good earnings from MSFT and GOOGL and a cooler-than-expected PCE inflation report. The SPX could rally early Monday to complete a 5-wave EW pattern. We are bullish here and are buying the dips for a strong rally into late May.

Gold – Gold tested Fibonacci extension resistance at $2448.8 and fell hard, but gold coiled bullishly and made a B-Wave test of the highs 4/18 before pulling back. A C-Wave down into the 4/23 Full Moon Tuesday tested $2304 and gold rallied to test $2364 on Friday. We are looking for the gold stocks to lead here.

Silver – Silver tested $29 Thursday evening and then started a C-Wave down. A pullback into the 4/23 Full Moon Tuesday touched $26.65 which is the low for the week so far. Silver tested $28.31 early Friday before correcting into the weekend.

Bonds – The 10-yr US yield peaked on Thursday at 4.73% for the week. Bonds fell to test 112'27 on Thursday as stagflation seems to be engulfing the economy.

Crude Oil – Crude oil bottomed at $80.8 in the 4/22-4/24 Full Moon Timing Window and appears to be rallying impulsively.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding 106 into the weekend.

TURNING POINT DAY

The next turn window is 4/29.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 25, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The PCE inflation report early Friday will be a market catalyst.  Many analysts are expecting a longer correction here in time and price - however, our Option Premium Ratio model argues argues that a bullish advance is starting in the SPX similar to the move from late October 2023.  Our bias is to buy the dips for a strong SPX rally into late May. The collapse in the VIX also keeps us on the bullish side of the market. The strong NYSE market breadth suggests that getting a Zweig Breadth Thrust signal, like in late October 2023,  is possible in the next four market days. Gold gave us a C-Wave down into Tuesday's Full Moon and Comex Option expiration and tested $2304. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 50% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum. We are currently trading gold, silver and oil stocks with 25% of our cash. 

4/25/24 (Commentary for Thursday)  The MSFT and GOOGL earnings are lifting the futures overnight and could give us a gap-up open Friday morning. The PCE inflation report will be in focus and could set the short-term market trend. The SPX recovered much of the initial downside this morning and gave the bulls hope going into the close. Our focus is buying gold, silver and oil stocks on dips. The blow out earnings in Newmont this morning was met with huge fund buying. The earnings from AEM were also well received by the market which is now looking forward to the earnings from Barrick Gold on 5/1. We are looking for the GDX to outperform the SPX going into late May. The VIX spiked up in a 5th wave to 21.36 after hours on 4/18 and made a pattern completion before collapsing this week - this keeps us on the bullish side here. Gold gave us a C-Wave Wave pullback into the 4/23 Full Moon Tuesday and Comex Option expiration and tested $2304 before rallying. Some traders took advantage to sell their SQQQ shares early on Monday in the 4/22-4/24 turn window. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The extremely overbought February & March monthly candles for the SPX argued for a stock correction going into 4/22-4/24 Full Moon Timing Window and WE HAVE MADE A SHORT_TERM LOW. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold made a blow-off high as we entered the Mercury Midpoint cycle on 4/12  and found resistance at its 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $2441. We saw a B-Wave test of the high on 4/18 after the Israeli attack on Iran that touched $2423. On Tuesday, we saw a C-Wave down that tested $2304 on the Full Moon.

Stocks – The SPX was hit hard at the open after META's guidance but the market rallied back into the close to take back most of the loses. We are bullish here and are buying the dips for a strong rally into late May.

Gold – Gold tested Fibonacci extension resistance at $2448.8 and fell hard, but gold coiled bullishly and made a B-Wave test of the highs 4/18 before pulling back. A C-Wave down into the 4/23 Full Moon Tuesday tested $2304 and gold rallied. We are looking for the gold stocks to lead here.

Silver – Silver tested $29 Thursday evening and then started a C-Wave down. A pullback into the 4/23 Full Moon Tuesday touched $26.65 which is the low for the week so far. Silver is testing $28 Thursday evening.

Bonds – The 10-yr US yield is testing 4.75%. Bonds fell to test 112'27 on Thursday as stagflation seems to be engulfing the economy.

Crude Oil – Crude oil bottomed at $80.8 in the 4/22-4/24 Full Moon Timing Window and is testing $84 Thursday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding 105.60 into Thursday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The next turn window is 4/22-4/24.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 24, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Will the bearish META guidance sink the stock market early Thursday? How the SPX trades on Thursday will set the short-term trend of the market. Our view is that the SPX was rallying impulsively into Wednesday and encountered a 4th wave corrective pattern. The Option Premium Ratio pattern in late Oct 2023 closely resembles the pattern that we have seen since 4/15 and that keeps our bias on the bullish side here. The collapse in the VIX after the after-hours spike to 21.36 also keeps us on the bullish side The strong NYSE market breadth suggests that getting a Zweig Breadth Thrust signal, like in late October 2023,  is possible in the next few days.  However, the DJIA, SPX, NDX and IWM have all broken price symmetry in the advance from last October, and that suggests that the SPX could give us a lower high on this market rebound and perhaps a longer correction in time. Gold gave us a C-Wave down Tuesday to $2304 on the Full Moon but there is still a chance for an undercut low going into Thursday. The monthly SPX candle in February and monthly SPX candle in March both closed 50% above the upper monthly Bollinger Band and that argued for a SPX correction into mid-April which WE GOT. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

4/24/24 (Commentary for Wednesday)  The META earnings guidance sank the stock afterhours and that could give us a gap-down open for the NDX early Thursday. However, the SPX appeared to be rallying impulsively into Wednesday and was tracing out a 4th wave correction going into the close. How the SPX trades on Thursday will set the short-term trend. The E-mini declined into the Fibonacci 21-day step out from the 3/28 high and reversed up on 4/19 after the Israeli attack on Iran. The VIX spiked up in a 5th wave to 21.36 after hours on 4/18 and made a pattern completion before collapsing this week - this keeps us on the bullish side here. The Uranus/Jupiter conjunction on 4/20-4/21 did reverse the SPX up on Monday and the impulsive rally into Wednesday confirms the low. Gold gave us a C-Wave Wave pullback into the 4/23 Full Moon Tuesday and tested $2304 before bouncing, but an undercut low on Thursday is still a possibility. Some traders took advantage to sell their SQQQ shares early on Monday in the 4/22-4/24 turn window. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The extremely overbought February & March monthly candles for the SPX argued for a stock correction going into 4/22-4/24 Full Moon Timing Window and WE HAVE MADE A SHORT_TERM LOW. We may need a more complex correction to put in a low now that all three indices ( DJIA, SPX and NDX) have broken the price symmetry of the October to March stock rally in the past few weeks. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold made a blow-off high as we entered the Mercury Midpoint cycle on 4/12  and found resistance at its 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $2441. We saw a B-Wave test of the high on 4/18 after the Israeli attack on Iran that touched $2423. On Tuesday, we saw a C-Wave down that tested $2304 on the Full Moon.

Stocks – The SPX rallied impulsively into Wednesday and ended the day with a 4th wave correction before META's guidance dropped the market hard after the close. How the SPX trades early Thursday will set the short-term trend.

Gold – Gold tested Fibonacci extension resistance at $2448.8 and fell hard, but gold coiled bullishly and made a B-Wave test of the highs 4/18 before pulling back. A C-Wave down into the 4/23 Full Moon Tuesday tested $2304 and bounced. 

Silver – Silver tested $29 Thursday evening and then started a C-Wave down. A pullback into the 4/23 Full Moon Tuesday touched $26.65 which is the low for the week so far.

Bonds – The 10-yr US yield may have peaked at 4.38% last week. The bonds gave us a 5-wave rally on the hourly chart last week off the 113'10 low and are currently doing a 3-wave pullback.

Crude Oil – Crude oil pulled back in a C-Wave into the 4/23 Full Moon and tested $80.83 before reversing higher.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding 105.65 Wednesday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The next turn window is 4/22-4/24.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 23, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us an EW 5-wave rally from late Friday and confirmed that a short-term market low was made on Friday. A 3-wave corrective pullback is now possible into Wednesday/Thursday. The strong NYSE market breadth suggests that getting a Zweig Breadth Thrust signal, like in late October 2023,  is possible in the next few days. It appears that the overnight E-mini low last Thursday at 4963.5 on the Israeli attack on Iran was the short-term low and the after-hours spike in the VIX to 21.36 gave us a 5-wave pattern completion for this volatility gauge. The DJIA, SPX, NDX and IWM have all broken price symmetry in the advance from last October, and that suggests that the SPX could give us a lower high on this market rebound. Gold made a blow off top to $2448.8 on 4/12, and after a B-Wave test of the highs on Thursday evening at $2423, gold gave us a C-Wave down today to $2303 on the Full Moon. The SPX declined into the Uranus/Jupiter conjunction over the weekend and reversed higher on Monday for what could be a substantial bounce. The monthly SPX candle in February and monthly SPX candle in March both closed 50% above the upper monthly Bollinger Band and that argued for a SPX correction into mid-April which WE GOT. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

4/23/24 (Commentary for Tuesday)  After declining hard into the 4/20-4/21 Uranus/Jupiter conjunction over the weekend, the SPX rallied in an EW 5-wave pattern on the hourly chart and confirmed a short-term market low. The E-mini declined into the Fibonacci 21-day step out from the 3/28 high and reversed up on 4/19 after the Israeli attack on Iran. The VIX spiked up in a 5th wave to 21.36 after hours on 4/18 and made a pattern completion. The SPX filled the gap at 4984 before reversing higher. The Uranus/Jupiter conjunction on 4/20-4/21 did reverse the SPX up on Monday and the EW 5-wave rally into today confirms the low. Gold gave us a C-Wave Wave pullback into the 4/23 Full Moon today and tested $2304. Some traders took advantage to sell their SQQQ shares early on Monday in the 4/22-4/24 turn window. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The extremely overbought February & March monthly candles for the SPX argued for a stock correction going into 4/22-4/24 Full Moon Timing Window and WE HAVE MADE A SHORT_TERM LOW. We may need a more complex correction to put in a low now that all three indices ( DJIA, SPX and NDX) have broken price symmetry in the past few weeks. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold made a blow-off high as we entered the Mercury Midpoint cycle on 4/12  and found resistance at its 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $2441. We saw a B-Wave test of the high on Thursday evening after the Israeli attack on Iran that touched $2423. On Tuesday, we saw a C-Wave down that tested $2303 on the Full Moon.

Stocks – The SPX completed an EW 5-wave rally into rally which confirmed a short-term low. We could see a corrective 3-wave pullback into Wednesday/Thursday.

Gold – Gold tested Fibonacci extension resistance at $2448.8 and fell hard, but gold coiled bullishly and made a B-Wave test of the highs Thursday evening before pulling back. A C-Wave down into the 4/23 Full Moon today tested $2303.  

Silver – Silver tested $29 Thursday evening and then started a C-Wave down. A pullback into the 4/23 Full Moon today touched $26.65 which may be the low.

Bonds – The 10-yr US yield may have peaked at 4.38% last week. The bonds gave us a 5-wave rally on the hourly chart last week off the 113'10 low and are currently doing a 3-wave pullback.

Crude Oil – Crude oil pulled back in a C-Wave into the 4/23 Full Moon and tested $81.16 before reversing higher.

Dollar Index – The USD is pulling back to 105.68 Tuesday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The next turn window is 4/22-4/24.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 22, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us a gap-up open early Monday and then came back to fill the gap before rallying into the afternoon. The SPX failed to give us the big break down that we feared, but we only have a 3-wave bounce so far going into Tuesday. How we trade on Tuesday is now key - we need to see a EW 5-wave higher on the hourly to suggest that a short-term low is in. It appears though, that the overnight E-mini low last Thursday at 4963.5 on the Israeli attack on Iran may have been the short-term low and the after-hours spike in the VIX to 21.36 gave us a 5-wave pattern completion. However, if we just get a 3-wave SPX bounce into Tuesday in the 4/22-4/24 Full Moon Timing Window, that would be bearish for more decline into 4/26. The DJIA, SPX, NDX and IWM have all broken price symmetry in the advance from last October, and that suggests that the SPX could give us a lower high on this market rebound. Gold made a blow off top to $2448.8 on 4/12, and after a B-Wave test of the highs on Thursday evening at $2423, gold gave us a C-Wave down today to $2322 . After a strong November, December, January, February and  March, the SPX may need a more extended consolidation in time and price, but the SPX declined into the Uranus/Jupiter conjunction over the weekend and reversed higher on Monday for what could be a substantial bounce. The monthly SPX candle in February and monthly SPX candle in March both closed 50% above the upper monthly Bollinger Band and that argued for a SPX correction into mid-April. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

4/22/24 (Commentary for Monday)  After declining hard into the 4/20-4/21 Uranus/Jupiter conjunction over the weekend, the SPX reversed higher on Monday in the Full Moon Timing Window. We had wanted a VIX spike above 20 to generate fear and we may have done that in the after-hours market on Thursday when the VIX spiked to 21.36 on news of the attack on Iran. We did not get a mini-crash on Monday, but we may get at least an oversold bounce into Tuesday. The Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turning point day in our work. If all we get is just a 3-wave bounce from early Monday into Tuesday, we will look at that as bearish for a retest of SPX 4954. The Uranus/Jupiter conjunction did reverse the SPX up on Monday but so far the rally is not impulsive. Gold and silver just bullishly coiled after the blow/off on 4/12 and turned up Thursday evening on the Israeli attack on Iran in what looked like a B-Wave. Gold is giving us a C-Wave Wave pullback into the 4/22-4/24 Full Moon Timing Window. Some took advantage to sell their SQQQ shares early on Monday in the 4/22-4/24 turn window. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The extremely overbought February & March monthly candles for the SPX argued for a stock correction going into 4/22-4/24 Full Moon Timing Window and WE ARE THERE. We may need a more complex correction to put in a low now that all three indices ( DJIA, SPX and NDX) have broken price symmetry in the past few weeks. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold made a blow-off high as we entered the Mercury Midpoint cycle on 4/12  and found resistance at its 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $2441. We saw a B-Wave test of the high on Thursday evening after the Israeli attack on Iran that tested $2423. On Monday, we saw a C-Wave down that tested $2322 as gold declines into the 4/22-4/24 Full Moon Timing Window.

Stocks – The SPX filled the SPX gap on 2/21 at 4982 and continued to sub-divide down which is bearish . The market needs a bigger correction and more fear to set a low going into the 4/22-4/24 turn window.

Gold – Gold tested Fibonacci extension resistance at $2448.8 and fell hard, but gold coiled bullishly and made a B-Wave test of the highs Thursday evening before pulling back. A C-Wave down into the 4/24 Full Moon would be ideal.  

Silver – Silver tested $29 Thursday evening and then started a C-Wave down. A pullback into the 4/24 Full Moon would be ideal.

Bonds – The 10-yr US yield may have peaked at 4.38% last week. The bonds gave us a 5-wave rally on the hourly chart last week off the 113'10 low.

Crude Oil – Crude oil made a B-Wave test of the $87 high Thursday evening and is now pulling back in a C-Wave into the 4/22-4/24 Full Moon Timing Window.

Dollar Index – The USD continues to hold up around 106 into Monday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The next turn window is 4/22-4/24.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - April 21, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: WARNING! The SPX continued to sub-divide down on expiration Friday and there is a good chance for a hard landing on Monday/Tuesday. The SPX sold off into Friday's close (monthly option expiration) - if we just get a 3-wave bounce into Tuesday in the 4/22-4/24 Full Moon Timing Window, that would be bearish for more decline into 4/26. We thought that the SPX had given us an ideal pattern completion on Wednesday with a CBOE put/call ratio that spiked higher from 0.82 to 1.2. However, the SPX continued to sub-divide down on Thursday/Friday in a possible EW 1-2, i-ii pattern that could give us a flush down into the 4/22-4/24 Full Moon Timing Window which could test the 4600-4800 zone. The market needs to generate more fear here and the VIX needs to spike higher to make a market low. The DJIA, SPX, NDX and IWM have all broken price symmetry in the advance from last October, and the SPX needs more than a 3%-5% correction to make a low - perhaps a 8%-10% correction. Gold made a blow off top to $2448.8 on 4/12 and is bullishly coiling in a possible 4th wave pattern that is curling up Sunday evening. After a strong November, December, January, February and  March, the SPX may need a mini-crash to 4800 to generate enough fear for a low. The monthly SPX candle in February and monthly SPX candle in March both closed 50% above the upper monthly Bollinger Band and that argued for a SPX correction into mid-April. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

4/21/24 (Commentary for Sunday)  WARNING! On Wednesday, the SPX gave us an ideal pattern completion setup with a CBOE put/call ratio that spiked to 1.19. HOWEVER, the SPX continued to sub-divide down in a possible EW 1-2,i-ii pattern that looked VERY BEARISH on Thursday/Friday. We had expected a 3%-5% SPX correction into mid-April but we may need a 8%-10% correction to generate a real low - a mini-crash into 4/22-4/24 is possible to SPX 4800. If we get just a 3-wave bounce from early Monday into Tuesday, we will look at that as bearish for another leg down in the SPX. After filling the SPX gap at 4982 on 2/21 and NOT REVERSING UP IMPULSIVELY, the SPX continues to sub-divide down aggressively and we could see a mini-crash into the 4/22-4/24 Full Moon Timing Window which includes a Uranus/Jupiter conjunction and a monthly option expiration. The blow off/reversal in gold and silver on 4/12 and the huge volume argued for a correction in the PM sector this week - but gold and silver just bullishly coiled and turned up Thursday evening on the Israeli attack on Iran. A C-Wave pullback into the 4/24 Full Moon would be ideal for gold and silver. We may get a chance to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares into the 4/22-4/24 turn window. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The extremely overbought February & March monthly candles for the SPX argued for a stock correction going into 4/22-4/26 and WE ARE THERE. We may need a 8%-10% correction  here to put in a low now that all three indices ( DJIA, SPX and NDX) have broken price symmetry in the past few weeks. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold made a blow-off high as we entered the Mercury Midpoint cycle on 4/12  and found resistance at its 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $2441 - we are seeing a B-Wave test of the highs on Thursday evening after the Israeli attack on Iran.

Stocks – The SPX filled the SPX gap on 2/21 at 4982 and continued to sub-divide down which is bearish . The market needs a bigger correction and more fear to set a low going into the 4/22-4/24 turn window.

Gold – Gold tested Fibonacci extension resistance at $2448.8 and fell hard, but gold coiled bullishly and made a B-Wave test of the highs Thursday evening before pulling back. A C-Wave down into the 4/24 Full Moon would be ideal.  

Silver – Silver tested $29 Thursday evening and then started a 3-wave correction. A pullback into the 4/24 Full Moon would be ideal.

Bonds – The 10-yr US yield may have peaked at 4.38% last week. The bonds may have given us a 5-wave rally on the hourly chart last week off the 113'10 low.

Crude Oil – Crude oil made a B-Wave test of the $87 high Thursday evening and is now pulling back in a C-Wave into the 4/22-4/24 Full Moon Timing Window.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding up at 106 Sunday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The next turn window is 4/22-4/24.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 18, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: WARNING! We thought that the SPX had given us an ideal pattern completion on Wednesday with a CBOE put/call ratio that spiked higher from 0.82 to 1.19.  However, the SPX continued to sub-divide down on Thursday in a possible EW 1-2, i-ii pattern that could give us a flush down into the 4/19-4/22 turn window that could test 4800. The market needs to get scared and the VIX needs to spike to make a low here. The DJIA, SPX, NDX and IWM have all broken price symmetry in the advance from last October, and the SPX may need more than a 3%-5% correction to make a low. Gold made a blow off top to $2448.8 on Friday and is bullishly coiling in a possible 4th wave pattern that is curling up Thursday evening. After a strong November, December, January, February and March, the SPX may need a mini-crash to 4800 to generate enough fear for a low. The monthly SPX candle in February and monthly SPX candle in March both closed 50% above the upper monthly Bollinger Band and that argued for a SPX correction into mid-April. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

4/18/24 (Commentary for Thursday)  WARNING! On Wednesday, the SPX gave us an ideal pattern completion setup with a CBOE put/call ratio that spiked to 1.2. HOWEVER, the SPX continued to sub-divide down in a possible EW 1-2,i-ii pattern that looks VERY BEARISH. We had expected a 3%-5% SPX correction into mid-April but we may need more to generate a real low - a mini-crash into 4/19-4/22 is possible to SPX 4800. The blow off/reversal in gold and silver on 4/12 and the huge volume argued for a correction in the PM sector this week - but gold and silver have bullishly coiled this week here and are turning up Thursday evening. After testing SPX 5000 and NOT REVERSING UP IMPULSIVELY, the SPX continues to sub-divide down aggressively and we could see a mini-crash into the 4/19-4/22 turn window which includes a Uranus/Jupiter conjunction and a monthly option expiration. The VIX  futures are spiking Thursday evening on news of an Israeli attack on Iran. We may get a chance to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares into the 4/19-4/22 turn window. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The extremely overbought February & March monthly candles for the SPX argued for a stock correction going into 4/16-4/22 and WE ARE THERE. More than a 3%-5% is a possibility here now that all three indices ( DJIA, SPX and NDX) have broken price symmetry in the past week. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold made a blow-off high as we entered the Mercury Midpoint cycle on 4/12  and found resistance at its 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $2441 - we are seeing a B-Wave test of the highs on Thursday evening after the Israeli attack on Iran.

Stocks – After an ideal setup on Wednesday for a reversal higher, the SPX continued to sub-divide down and is plunging overnight Thursday. The market needs a bigger correction and more fear to set a low going into the 4/19-4/22 turn window.

Gold – Gold tested Fibonacci extension resistance at $2448.8 and fell hard, but gold coiled bullishly and made a B-Wave test of the highs Thursday evening.  

Silver – Silver tested $30 on 4/12 and continues to coil into Thursday evening.

Bonds – We posted the highest 10-yr US rate for 2024 on Tuesday at 4.38% - from Larry Williams yearly cycle analysis. Bonds are seeing a global flight to quality Thursday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is making  B-Wave test of the $87 high Thursday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD is making a B-Wave test of the 106.5 high Thursday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The next turn window for this week is 4/19-4/22.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 17, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us a gap-up open but lost the gain in the first half hour of trading before rolling over and testing SPX 5000. The SPX made lower lows but the CBOE put/call ratio spiked higher from 0.82 to 1.19. We did get a small 5th wave down to test SPX 5000 and that could be it for the downside. The DJIA, SPX and now the NDX decline have all broken price symmetry, but our test of 5000 looks close to a trading buy. Gold made a blow off top to $2448.8 on Friday and is bullishly coiling in a possible 4th wave pattern - however, the GDX continues to underperform.  After a strong November, December, January, February and a strong NVDA earnings report, the SPX has already seen the expected 3%-5% correction into 4/16-4/21 and our TRIN-5 indicator is VERY OVERSOLD at 7.10 - we are close to a correction low. The monthly SPX candle in February and monthly SPX candle in March both closed 50% above the upper monthly Bollinger Band and that argued for a SPX correction into mid-April and we are there now. Now, we are looking for higher SPX highs going into June longer term. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

4/17/24 (Commentary for Wednesday)  The SPX tested 5000 today and the put/call ratio spiked to 1.2. We expected a 3%-5% SPX correction into mid-April and WE ARE NOW THERE. If the SPX opens Thursday down, we are looking to go long our favorite sectors - XLE, XBI and the QQQ.  The blow off/reversal in gold and silver on 4/12 and the huge volume argued for a correction in the PM sector this week - but gold and silver are bullishly coiling here and the GDX may be bouncing in a Wave B of an EW a-b-c correction. After testing SPX 5000, The SPX is close to a correction low here and we are planning our trades accordingly. The VIX  closed back within its upper Bollinger Band again today which is a buy signal for the SPX. We are getting a last chance to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares into the 4/17-4/22 time window. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The extremely overbought February & March monthly candles for the SPX argued for a stock correction going into 4/16-4/22 and WE ARE THERE. More than a 3%-5% is a possibility here now that all three indices ( DJIA, SPX and NDX) have broken price symmetry in the past week. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold made a blow-off high as we entered the Mercury Midpoint cycle on 4/12  and found resistance at its 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $2441 - we are seeing a pullback this week in the PM sector.

Stocks – The SPX tested 5000 on Wednesday as the CBOE put/call ratio spiked from 0.82 to 1.19 which is a BUY SIGNAL - a down open Thursday could see us going long our favorite sectors.

Gold – Gold tested Fibonacci extension resistance at $2448.8 and fell hard, but gold is coiling bullishly and we could see a retest of the high.  A break below $2138 would imply an important top was made.

Silver – Silver tested $30 on 4/12 and may be correcting in just a 4th wave.

Bonds – We posted the highest 10-yr US rate for 2024 on Tuesday at 4.38% - from Larry Williams yearly cycle analysis, we should be close to a low in bonds.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing its S1-pivot support Wednesday evening near $82.05.

Dollar Index – The USD may have finished an EW a-b-c correction Wednesday evening near 105.8.

TURNING POINT DAY

The next turn window for this week is 4/15-4/17, near the midpoint of the Mercury retrograde cycle.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 16, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The 10-yr US rate spiked to 4.38% early Tuesday and this helped pressure the SPX down to 5039. The SPX volume was lighter than yesterday, so the downside here is running out of steam. Still, a small 5th wave down to test SPX 5000 is a possibility going into early Wednesday. The DJIA, SPX and now the NDX decline have all broken price symmetry and our target at SPX 5050 has been achieved. However, the SPX looks likely to continue down to test 5000 which looks like a trading buy to us. Gold made a blow off top to $2448.8 on Friday and is bullishly coiling in a possible 4th wave pattern - however, the GDX continues to underperform.  After a strong November, December, January, February and a strong NVDA earnings report, the SPX has already seen the expected 3%-5% correction into 4/16-4/21 and our TRIN-5 indicator is VERY OVERSOLD at 6.90 - we are close to a correction low. The monthly SPX candle in February and monthly SPX candle in March both closed 50% above the upper monthly Bollinger Band and that argued for a SPX correction into mid-April and we are there now. Now, we are looking for higher SPX highs going into June longer term. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

4/16/24 (Commentary for Tuesday)  With rates spiking near the open, the SPX tested lower lows to SPX 5039 but on LIGHTER VOLUME which shows that this correction is running out of fuel. We expected a 3%-5% SPX correction into mid-April and we are now there. If the SPX opens Wednesday down, we are looking to go long our favorite sectors - XLE, XBI and the QQQ.  The blow off/reversal in gold and silver on Friday and the huge volume argued for a correction in the PM sector this week - but gold and silver are bullishly coiling here and the GDX may be close to finishing an EW a-b-c correction. The SPX is close to a correction low here and we are planning our trades accordingly. The VIX remained above its 50-day-ema again on Tuesday's close and that is bearish for the market but the VIX closed back within its upper Bollinger Band today which is a buy signal for the SPX. We may get a chance to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares into the 4/16-4/22 time window. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The extremely overbought February & March monthly candles for the SPX argue for a stock correction going into 4/16-4/22 and WE ARE THERE. More than a 3%-5% is a possibility here now that all three indices ( DJIA, SPX and NDX) have broken price symmetry in the past week. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold made a blow-off high as we entered the Mercury Midpoint cycle on 4/12 - we should see a pullback this week in the PM sector.

Stocks – The SPX tested lower lows at 5039 but volume is drying up - a down open Wednesday could see us going long our favorite sectors.

Gold – Gold tested Fibonacci extension resistance at $2448.8 and fell hard, but gold is coiling bullishly and we could see a retest of the high.  A break below $2138 would imply an important top was made.

Silver – Silver tested $30 on Friday and may be correcting in just a 4th wave.

Bonds – We posted the highest 10-yr US rate for 2024 today at 4.38% - from Larry Williams yearly cycle analysis, we should be close to a low in bonds.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $87.67 on Friday and started coiling in a triangle.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 106.5 Tuesday as the Yen keeps falling.

TURNING POINT DAY

The next turn window for this week is 4/15-4/17, near the midpoint of the Mercury retrograde cycle.