All Star Market Timing

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - March 31, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: We did start a 5th wave higher in the SPX early Wednesday and we made a new intra-day ATH at 5264.85. The rally pattern does not look complete and we should see more upside early Monday. We are still looking for a 5th wave higher that could test SPX 5300 by Monday and then stage a 3%-5% correction. After a strong November, December, January, February and a strong NVDA earnings report, the SPX could see a 3%-5% correction in the first week of April, but we will need to see an EW 5-waves down on the hourly SPX to get us bearish and we are not there yet. The monthly SPX candle in February closed 50% above the upper monthly Bollinger Band and that argues for a SPX correction into the month of April. We may get a chance to sell our SQQQ, SPXS and TZA shares, however, we are looking for higher SPX highs going into June longer term. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

3/31/24 (Commentary for Sunday)  The SPX started a 5th wave higher early Wednesday that made a new ATH at 5264.85 but the rally pattern does not look complete yet. The 3%-5% correction that we had expected may not kickoff until after the holiday weekend. The geo-magnetic solar storms that popped up on Sunday and Monday's lunar eclipse helped push the SPX down until early Wednesday before the kickoff of a 5th wave higher. In the intermediate term, the Fed will be under political pressure to cut rates this summer before the Presidential race kicks off in August. With China exporting deflation in the form of cheaper EVs, the Fed may have a rationalization to cut rates even if the 2% YoY inflation rate is not achieved. The VIX closed way below its 50-day-ema again on Thursday and that is still bullish for the SPX. We may not get a chance to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares until next week. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The extremely overbought February & March monthly candles for the SPX argue for selling action going into April for the SPX. A 3%-5% decline after the Easter weekend is a possibility. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold was set up by its "cup and handle pattern" on the hourly chart and is rallying to $2276.9 Sunday evening. The DSI sentiment survey for gold and silver shows the precious metals climbing a "wall of worry".

Stocks – The SPX started a 5th wave higher early Wednesday and made a new ATH at 5264.85 on Thursday,  but the pattern is not complete yet. We could see a test of SPX 5300 early Monday.

Gold – Gold finished tracing out a bullish "cup and handle" pattern on the hourly chart early Wednesday and really started taking off Thursday to test $2276.8 on Sunday evening. 

Silver –  Silver is sub-dividing higher to test $23.09 Sunday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $83.36 Sunday evening. The XLE is testing the 94.71 high from 2022.

Dollar Index – The USD has been coiling sideways from Wednesday when it tested 104.73 and looks bullish.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 4/1.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 27, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Our call yesterday that we had started a "wave-c" down to test SPX 5100 was wrong. The correction from 3/21 is a 4th wave pullback that may have ended early Wednesday. We are now looking for a 5th wave higher that could test SPX 5300 on Thursday. With the extreme overbought momentum indicators seen at the 3/21 SPX high at 5261.1, we are still expecting a 3% correction after the coming holiday weekend. After a strong November, December, January, February and a strong NVDA earnings report, the SPX could see a 3%-5% correction in the first week of April, but we will need to see an EW 5-waves down on the hourly SPX to get us bearish and we are not there yet. The monthly SPX candle in February closed 50% above the upper monthly Bollinger Band and that argues for a sideways SPX trade into the month of April. We may get a chance to sell our SQQQ, SPXS and TZA shares, however, we are looking for higher SPX highs going into June longer term. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

3/27/24 (Commentary for Wednesday)  The SPX started a 4th wave pullback on 3/21 and may have ended that pullback early Wednesday and started a 5th wave higher that could test 5300 on Thursday. The 3%-5% correction that we had expected may not kickoff until after the holiday weekend. The geo-magnetic solar storms that popped up on Sunday and Monday's lunar eclipse helped push the SPX down until early Wednesday. The extreme overbought readings on our momentum indicators for the SPX at last week's ATH on 3/21 argue for a 3%-5% correction after the  holiday weekend. In the intermediate term, the Fed will be under political pressure to cut rates this summer before the Presidential race kicks off in August. With China exporting deflation in the form of cheaper EVs, the Fed may have a rationalization to cut rates even if the 2% YoY inflation rate is not achieved. The VIX  closed below its 50-day-ema again on Wednesday and that is still bullish for the SPX. We may not get a chance to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares until early April. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The February monthly candle for the SPX closed more than 50% above its upper monthly Bollinger Band and that argues for sideways trading action in late March/early April for the SPX. A 3%-5% decline after the Easter weekend is a possibility. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold gave us a B-Wave test of the $2225 high on Tuesday and may be tracing out a bullish "cup and handle pattern" on the hourly chart. The DSI sentiment survey for gold and silver shows the precious metals climbing a "wall of worry".

Stocks – The SPX may have finished a 4th wave correction from 3/21 and started a 5th wave higher that could test 5300 on Thursday. The appearance of solar storms on Sunday and the negative energy of Monday's lunar eclipse pressured the SPX down until early Wednesday. 

Gold – Gold gave us a B-Wave test of $2225 on Tuesday and may be forming a bullish "cup and handle" pattern on the hourly chart. 

Silver –  Silver is bouncing to $24.76 Wednesday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is bouncing to $81.83 Wednesday evening. 

Dollar Index – The USD is basing at 104.34 Wednesday evening. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 3/25-3/26, the Full Moon Timing Window + Lunar Eclipse.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 26, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: On March 21, the Spring Equinox and a 3-star critical reversal day, the SPX made its most recent ATH at 5261.1 and started a 3-wave correction that continued into Tuesday. Today, the "wave-b" of the correction ended and the "wave-c" down started which could extend down to below SPX 5100 by Thursday's close. We exited all long trades yesterday and are preparing for a short but sharp move down that could be scary. With the extreme overbought momentum indicators seen at the 3/21 SPX high at 5261.1, we are expecting a 3% correction after the 3/25-2/26 Full Moon Timing Window which included a lunar eclipse. The SPX is still stretched to the upside here and needs more  consolidation. After a strong November, December, January, February and a strong NVDA earnings report, the SPX could see a 3%-5% correction in the last week of March, but we will need to see an EW 5-waves down on the hourly SPX to get us bearish and we are not there yet. The monthly SPX candle in February closed 50% above the upper monthly Bollinger Band and that argues for a sideways SPX trade in the month of March which suggests some possible steep selling into late March. We may get a chance to sell our SQQQ, SPXS and TZA shares, however, we are looking for higher SPX highs going into June longer term. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

3/26/24 (Commentary for Tuesday)  The SPX started an EW a-b-c correction on 3/21 and we may have begun the "wave-c" down before the close today. We could see a quick, scary decline on Wednesday/Thursday before the holiday weekend. The geo-magnetic solar storms that popped up on Sunday and Monday's lunar eclipse are a short-term negative for the SPX. The extreme overbought readings on our momentum indicators for the SPX at last week's ATH on 3/21 argue for a short, sharp market retracement after the 3/25-3/26 Full Moon Timing Window. In the intermediate term, the Fed will be under political pressure to cut rates this summer before the Presidential race kicks off in August. With China exporting deflation in the form of cheaper EVs, the Fed may have a rationalization to cut rates even if the 2% YoY inflation rate is not achieved. The VIX  closed below its 50-day-ema again on Tuesday and that is still bullish for the SPX. We may get a chance to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a possible 3%-5% SPX pullback after the 3/25-3/26 Full Moon Timing Window. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The February monthly candle for the SPX closed more than 50% above its upper monthly Bollinger Band and that argues for sideways trading action in late March for the SPX. A 3%-5% decline after the 3/25-3/26 Full Moon Timing Window is a possibility. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold gave us a B-Wave test of the $2225 high on Tuesday and may be tracing out an EW a-b-c flat correction. The DSI sentiment survey for gold and silver shows the precious metals climbing a "wall of worry".

Stocks – The SPX may have entered a "wave-c" down of an EW a-b-c correction late today. We could now see a quick and scary decline Wednesday/Thursday that could test SPX 5100. The appearance of solar storms on Sunday and the negative energy of Monday's lunar eclipse are working against the stock market this week. 

Gold – Gold gave us a B-Wave test of $2225 on Tuesday - we may now see a C-Wave down of a EW flat correction. 

Silver –  Silver is at $24.58 early Wednesday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil gave us a B-Wave test of the $83.12 high on Monday before rolling over. 

Dollar Index – The USD is holding up at 104.37 early Wednesday. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 3/25-3/26, the Full Moon Timing Window + Lunar Eclipse.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 25, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The stock market continued to correct down into the Full Moon on Monday and the SPX rally pattern still looks incomplete. We still have a chance for a rally to test SPX 5300 Tuesday but the sudden appearance of geo-magnetic storms on the sun and the passing of a lunar eclipse early Monday brings some negative energy into the picture and there are no guarantees. With the extreme overbought momentum indicators, we are expecting a 3% correction after the 3/25-2/26 Full Moon Timing Window which includes a lunar eclipse. The SPX is stretched to the upside here and needs more sideways consolidation. Being cautious and expecting a short-term high, we took our trading profits in TQQQ before the close today.  After a strong November, December, January, February and a strong NVDA earnings report, the SPX could see a 3%-5% correction in the last week of March, but we will need to see an EW 5-waves down on the hourly SPX to get us bearish and we are not there yet. The monthly SPX candle in February closed 50% above the upper monthly Bollinger Band and that argues for a sideways SPX trade in the month of March which suggests some possible steep selling late into March. We may get a chance to sell our SQQQ, SPXS and TZA shares, however, we are looking for higher SPX highs going into June longer term. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

3/25/24 (Commentary for Monday)  The SPX corrected on Friday and built in some fear with a higher put/call ratio and higher $TRIN going into the weekend. We got a gap down early Monday, and the $NDX rallied back to fill the gap before turning lower near the close. The SPX appears to be correcting in a small 4th wave pattern that should yield to a spike 5th wave higher on Tuesday that could test SPX 5300, but the emergence of geo-magnetic solar storms over the weekend and the negative market energy on Monday's lunar eclipse could endanger any rally attempt. We took our TQQQ trading profits before the close today but still expect a rally attempt early Tuesday. The extreme overbought readings on our momentum indicators for the SPX last week argue for a market retracement after the 3/25-3/26 Full Moon Timing Window. In the intermediate term, the Fed will be under political pressure to cut rates this summer before the Presidential race kicks off in August. With China exporting deflation in the form of cheaper EVs, the Fed may have a rationalization to cut rates even if the 2% YoY inflation rate is not achieved. The VIX closed below its 50-day-ema again on Monday and that is bullish for the SPX. We may get a chance to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a possible 3%-5% SPX pullback after the 3/25-3/26 Full Moon Timing Window. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The February monthly candle for the SPX closed more than 50% above its upper monthly Bollinger Band and that argues for sideways trading action in late March for the SPX. A 3%-5% decline after the 3/25-3/26 Full Moon Timing Window is a possibility. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold is giving us a B-Wave test of the $2225 high early Tuesday. The DSI sentiment survey for gold and silver shows the precious metals climbing a "wall of worry".

Stocks – The SPX gapped down early Monday and ended the day down - it is correctively bouncing early Tuesday. The appearance of solar storms on Sunday and the negative energy of Monday's lunar eclipse are working against the early Tuesday rally attempt. We took some some trading profits going into Monday's close but a short-term spike high in the 3/25-3/26 Full Moon Timing Window that tests SPX 5300+ is still a possibility. 

Gold – Gold is giving us a B-Wave test of $2225 early Tuesday. With Mars changing signs on 3/23 and a lunar eclipse on 3/25, gold could make a trading high in the 3/25-3/26 Full Moon Timing Window.

Silver –  Silver is testing $25 early Tuesday but is lagging gold.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is giving us a B-Wave test of the $83.12 high early Tuesday. 

Dollar Index – The USD is pulling back early Tuesday. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 3/25-3/26, the Full Moon Timing Window + Lunar Eclipse.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - March 24, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The stock market had another consolidation day on Friday but the put/call ratio and the closing TRIN both spiked higher which argues that the next move of consequence for the SPX will be a spike higher to test 5300 on Sunday/Monday's Full Moon Timing Window. With the extremely overbought momentum indicators, we are expecting a 3% correction after the 3/25-2/26 Full Moon Timing Window which includes a lunar eclipse. The SPX is stretched to the upside here and needs more sideways consolidation. Being cautious and expecting a short-term high, we took our trading profits going into the weekend.  After a strong November, December, January, February and a strong NVDA earnings report, the SPX could see a 3%-5% correction in the last week of March, but we will need to see an EW 5-waves down on the hourly SPX to get us really bearish. The monthly SPX candle in February closed 50% above the upper monthly Bollinger Band and that argues for a sideways SPX trade in the month of March which suggests some possible steep selling late into March. We may get a chance to sell our SQQQ, SPXS and TZA shares, however, we are looking for higher SPX highs going into June longer term. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

3/24/24 (Commentary for Sunday)  The SPX corrected on Friday and built in some fear with a higher put/call ratio and higher $TRIN going into the weekend. The SPX appears to be correcting in a small 4th wave pattern that should yield to a spike 5th wave higher on Monday that could test SPX 5300+. We took our trading profits going into the weekend but expect a test of SPX 5300 on Monday's Full Moon + Lunar Eclipse. The extreme overbought readings on momentum indicators for the SPX  argue for a market retracement after the 3/25-3/26 Full Moon Timing Window. In the intermediate term, the Fed will be under political pressure to cut rates this summer before the Presidential race kicks off in August. With China exporting deflation in the form of cheaper EVs, the Fed may have a rationalization to cut rates even if the 2% YoY inflation rate is not achieved. The VIX gave us some downside momentum today and closed below its 50-day-ema again on Thursday and that is bullish for the SPX. A spike down early Monday on the VIX would not surprise us. We may get a chance to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a possible 3%-5% SPX pullback after the 3/25-3/26 Full Moon Timing Window. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The February monthly candle for the SPX closed more than 50% above its upper monthly Bollinger Band and that argues for sideways trading action in late March for the SPX. A 3%-5% decline after the 3/25-3/26 Full Moon Timing Window is a possibility. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold rallied hard after the FOMC minutes and ran to a new high of $2225 overnight Wednesday before correcting to $2166 into the weekend.  The DSI sentiment survey for gold and silver shows the precious metals climbing a "wall of worry".

Stocks – The SPX corrected on Friday in what looked like a small 4th wave and the put/call ratio jumped to 1.30 and the closing TRIN jumped to 1.63 which shows elevated fear. We took some some trading profits going into the weekend but a short-term spike high in the 3/25-3/26 Full Moon Timing Window that tests SPX 5300+ is likely. 

Gold – Gold tested $2225 overnight Wednesday and started a correction that took gold to $2166 into the weekend. With Mars changing signs on 3/23 and a lunar eclipse on 3/25, gold could make a trading low in the 3/25-3/26 Full Moon Timing Window.

Silver –  Silver tested $26 Wednesday evening and closed Friday around $24.85 - we could see an important trading low on Monday/Tuesday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is making a complex correction into the 3/25-3/26 Full Moon. 

Dollar Index – The USD tested 105 on Friday and put more downward pressure on gold. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 3/25-3/26, the Full Moon Timing Window + Lunar Eclipse.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 21, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX followed up Fed Wednesday by making a new intra-day ATH at 5261. While it is possible to test 5300 by the 3/25-3/26 Full Moon Timing Window, the SPX is stretched to the upside here and needs more sideways consolidation. The 3/21-3/26 turn window, which includes a 3-star critical reversal day, could give us a short-term high, so we would be tempted to take some trading profits by the weekend. After a strong November, December, January, February and a strong NVDA earnings report, the SPX could see a 3%-5% correction in the last third of March, but we need to see an EW 5-waves down on the hourly SPX to get us really bearish. The monthly SPX candle in February closed 50% above the upper monthly Bollinger Band and that argues for a sideways SPX trade in the month of March which suggests some selling late into the month. We may get a chance to sell our SQQQ, SPXS and TZA shares, however, we are looking for higher SPX highs going into June. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

3/21/24 (Commentary for Thursday)  The SPX made another ATH at 5262 but we are very extended here. The SPX could test 5300 by the 3/25-3/26 Full Moon Timing Window, but we could see some more sideways consolidation so the risk/reward metric doesn't favor being aggressive here on the long side. In any case, the Fed will be under political pressure to cut rates this summer before the Presidential race kicks off in August. With China exporting deflation in the form of cheaper EVs, the Fed may have a rationalization to cut rates even if the 2% YoY inflation rate is not achieved. This week is one of the most seasonally weak periods of the year and we are not looking for a straight up move here in the SPX - the SPX 5226 level was close to one of our targets and we favor taking some money off the table here. The VIX gave us some downside momentum today and closed below its 50-day-ema again on Thursday and that is bullish for the SPX. We may get a chance to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a possible 3%-5% SPX pullback after the 3/25-3/26 Full Moon Timing Window. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The February monthly candle for the SPX closed more than 50% above its upper monthly Bollinger Band and that argues for sideways trading action in March for the SPX. A 3%-5% decline after the 3/25-3/26 Full Moon Timing Window is a possibility. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold rallied hard after the FOMC minutes and ran to a new high of $2225 overnight Wednesday before starting a correction. The DSI sentiment survey for gold and silver shows the precious metals climbing a "wall of worry".

Stocks – The SPX rallied to SPX 5261 today before pulling back into the close. We would be taking some trading profits going into the weekend - a short-term high in the 3/25-3/26 Full Moon Timing Window is a possibility. 

Gold – Gold tested $2225 overnight Wednesday and started a correction into Thursday. 

Silver –  Silver tested $26 Wednesday evening and is now testing $24.68 Thursday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $80 Thursday evening. 

Dollar Index – The USD may have finished a 3-wave corrective bounce on its test of 104.28 Thursday evening. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week is 3/19, the Tuesday after a monthly option expiration and 3/21-3/26 which includes the Spring Equinox and Full Moon.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 20, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Since 3/8, the SPX gave a just a sideways rotational correction, and after the FOMC minutes, the SPX launched higher after tracing out a coil pattern since Friday and made a new ATH at 5226.19. The turn date on 3/19 gave us a reversal higher. However, the 3/21-3/26 turn window which includes a 3-star critical reversal day could give us a short-term high, so we would be tempted to take some trading profits by the weekend. After a strong November, December, January, February and a strong NVDA earnings report, the SPX could see a 3%-5% correction in the second half of March, but we need to see an EW 5-waves down on the hourly SPX to get us bearish. The monthly SPX candle closed 50% above the upper monthly Bollinger Band and that argues for a sideways SPX trade in the month of March which suggests some selling late into the month. We may get a chance to sell our SQQQ, SPXS and TZA shares, however, we are looking for higher SPX highs going into June. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

3/20/24 (Commentary for Wednesday)  Chairman Powell took on a tone of "maybe two rate cuts" by August and the market was happy with that. At any rate, the Fed will be under political pressure to cut rates this summer before the Presidential race kicks off in August. With China exporting deflation in the form of cheaper EVs, the Fed may have a rationalization to cut rates even if the 2% YoY inflation rate is not achieved. This week is one of the most seasonally weak periods of the year and we are not looking for a straight up move here in the SPX - the SPX 5226 level was close to one of our targets. The VIX did close below its 50-day-ema again on Wednesday and that is bullish for the SPX. We may get a chance to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a possible 3%-5% SPX pullback after the 3/25-3/26 Full Moon Timing Window. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The February monthly candle for the SPX closed more than 50% above its upper monthly Bollinger Band and that argues for sideways trading action in March for the SPX. A 3%-5% after the 3/25-3/26 Full Moon Timing Window is a possibility. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold rallied hard after the FOMC minutes and ran to a new high of $2225 overnight Wednesday. The DSI sentiment survey for gold and silver shows the precious metals climbing a "wall of worry".

Stocks – The SPX traced out a coil pattern going into Tuesday's close and then the market rallied strong after the FOMC minutes. We would be taking some trading profits going into the weekend - a short-term high in the 3/25-3/26 Full Moon Timing Window is a possibility. 

Gold – Gold took off higher after the FOMC minutes and is testing $2225 overnight Wednesday. 

Silver –  Silver rallied hard after the FOMC minutes and tested $25.86 Wednesday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil pulled back to $80.85 before getting a bounce to $81.86. 

Dollar Index – The USD may have finished a 3-wave bounce on its test of 104 early Wednesday and is now falling hard after Fed Wednesday. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week is 3/19, the Tuesday after a monthly option expiration and 3/21-3/26 which includes the Spring Equinox and Full Moon.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 19, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: After a 3-wave correction into Friday's close, the SPX rebounded today but it doesn't change our idea of a more complex correction that could follow through to the downside after a Fed Wednesday this week. The Option Premium Ratio jumped from 0.35 to 0.53 and this argues for some downside volatility into the 3/19-3/22 turn window. The SPX gave us a B-Wave test of the SPX ATH at 5189 on 3/12 and started a C-Wave down that could subdivide down to test 5060 this week. So far, the SPX is just giving us a rotational correction with little price correction, however, the C-Wave down could give us more downside. After a strong November, December, January, February and a strong NVDA earnings report, the SPX could see a 3%-5% correction into the second half of March. The monthly SPX candle closed 50% above the upper monthly Bollinger Band and that argues for a sideways SPX trade in the month of March. We may get a chance to sell our SQQQ, SPXS and TZA shares, however, we are looking for higher SPX highs going into June. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

3/19/24 (Commentary for Tuesday)  The hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI reports for February is a warning to the markets that the next wave of inflation is getting underway and Fed Wednesday this week may underscore that. However, the Fed will be under political pressure to cut rates this summer before the Presidential race kicks off in August. With China exporting deflation in the form of cheaper EVs, the Fed may have a rationalization to cut rates even if the 2% YoY inflation rate is not achieved. This week is one of the most seasonally weak periods of the year and some kind of fear spike in the stock market will recharge its batteries for more of a run into the summer. The VIX closed below its 50-day-ema again on Tuesday and that is short-term bullish for the SPX this week. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a possible 3%-5% SPX pullback into March 19-26. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The February monthly candle for the SPX closed more than 50% above its upper monthly Bollinger Band and that argues for sideways trading action in March for the SPX. A 3%-5% correction is possible going into the 3/19-3/26 turn window that includes the Spring Equinox. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold tested $2144 before bouncing on Monday - we could still see an undercut of $2144 on Fed Wednesday. The DSI sentiment survey for gold and silver shows the precious metals climbing a "wall of worry".

Stocks – The SPX bounced into Tuesday in a possible B-Wave - we could still see a C-Wave down start on Fed Wednesday. 

Gold – Gold made an undercut low and tested $2144 before bouncing into Tuesday - gold has a seasonal tendency to decline into Fed Wednesday and we could still see an undercut of $2144. 

Silver –  Silver now has two daily closes above $25 which is bullish for higher highs. A pullback that holds $25 would be bullish.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $83.12 on Tuesday before correcting. 

Dollar Index – The USD made a DCL on 3/8 and tested 103.77 on Monday evening - the rally from 3/8 is only a 3-wave bounce so far, but it could still break above 104. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week is 3/19, the Tuesday after a monthly option expiration and 3/21-3/22 which includes the Spring Equinox.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 18, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: After a 3-wave correction into Friday's close, the SPX rebounded today but it doesn't change our idea of a more complex correction that could follow through to the downside after a Fed Wednesday this week. The Option Premium Ratio jumped from 0.35 to 0.53 and this argues for some downside volatility into the 3/19-3/22 turn window. The SPX gave us a B-Wave test of the SPX ATH at 5189 on 3/12 and started a C-Wave down that could subdivide down to test 5060 this week. So far, the SPX is just giving us a rotational correction with little price correction, however, the C-Wave down could give us more downside. After a strong November, December, January, February and a strong NVDA earnings report, the SPX could see a 3%-5% correction into the second half of March. The monthly SPX candle closed 50% above the upper monthly Bollinger Band and that argues for a sideways SPX trade in the month of March. We may get a chance to sell our SQQQ, SPXS and TZA shares, however, we are looking for higher SPX highs going into June. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

3/18/24 (Commentary for Monday)  The hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI reports for February is a warning to the markets that the next wave of inflation is getting underway and Fed Wednesday this week may underscore that. However, the Fed will be under political pressure to cut rates this summer before the Presidential race kicks off in August. With China exporting deflation in the form of cheaper EVs, the Fed may have a rationalization to cut rates even if the 2% YoY inflation rate is not achieved. This week is one of the most seasonally weak periods of the year and some kind of fear spike in the stock market will recharge its batteries for more of a run into the summer. The VIX closed above its 50-day-ema again on Monday and that is short-term bearish for the SPX this week. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a possible 3%-5% SPX pullback into March 19-26. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The February monthly candle for the SPX closed more than 50% above its upper monthly Bollinger Band and that argues for sideways trading action in March for the SPX. A 3%-5% correction is possible going into the 3/19-3/26 turn window that includes the Spring Equinox. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold did undercut $2156 and tested $2144 before bouncing on Monday - we could see more correction into Fed Wednesday.

Stocks – The SPX bounced Monday in a possible wave 2 of C down - we could see more correction into Fed Wednesday. 

Gold – Gold made an undercut low and tested $2144 before bouncing on Monday - gold has a seasonal tendency to decline into Fed Wednesday and we could see lower lows. 

Silver –  Silver now has two daily closes above $25 which is bullish for higher highs. A pullback that holds $25 would be bullish.

Crude Oil – Crude oil bullishly bounced to test $82.5 before correcting. 

Dollar Index – The USD made a DCL on 3/8 and tested 103.77 on Monday evening - the rally from 3/8 is only a 3-wave bounce so far, but it could still move higher. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week is 3/19, the Tuesday after a monthly option expiration and 3/21-3/22 which includes the Spring Equinox.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - March 17, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Our view is that the SPX started a rolling correction on 3/8 that could run into next week into the 3/19-3/26 turn window.  The SPX gave us a B-Wave test of the SPX ATH at 5189 on 3/12 and started a C-Wave down that could subdivide down into next week. So far, the SPX is just giving us a rotational correction with little price correction, however, the C-Wave down could give us a test of SPX 5000 next week. After a strong November, December, January, February and a strong NVDA earnings report, the SPX could see a 3%-5% correction into the second half of March. The monthly SPX candle closed 50% above the upper monthly Bollinger Band and that argues for a sideways SPX trade in the month of March. We may get a chance to sell our SQQQ, SPXS and TZA shares, however, we are looking for higher SPX highs going into June. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

3/15/24 (Commentary for Friday)  The hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI reports for February is a warning to the markets that the next wave of inflation is getting underway. The Fed will be under political pressure to cut rates this summer before the Presidential race kicks off in August. With China exporting deflation in the form of cheaper EVs, the Fed may have a rationalization to cut rates even if the 2% YoY inflation rate is not achieved. Next week is one of the most seasonally weak periods of the year and some kind of fear spike in the stock market will recharge its batteries for more of a run into the summer. The VIX closed above its 50-day-ema on Friday and that is short-term bearish for the SPX going into next week. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a possible 3%-5% SPX pullback into March 19-26. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The February monthly candle for the SPX closed more than 50% above its upper monthly Bollinger Band and that argues for sideways trading action in March for the SPX. A 3%-5% correction is possible going into the 3/19-3/26 turn window that includes the Spring Equinox. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold tested its $2156 low from Tuesday today and then just bounced in a corrective 3-waves - we should now see a lower low below $2156.

Stocks – The SPX may have seen a B-Wave test of the ATH at 5189 on 3/12 and is now sub-dividing down in a C-Wave that could possible test SPX 5000 in the coming week. 

Gold – Gold tested $2156 again on Thursday but this time only bounced in a corrective 3-waves. We are now looking for a leg below $2156 by Sunday/Monday. 

Silver –  Silver now has two daily closes above $25 which is bullish for higher highs. A pullback that holds $25 would be bullish.

Crude Oil – Just a 3-wave pullback from $81.62 would be bullish. 

Dollar Index – The USD made a DCL on 3/8 but its rally this week just looks like an EW a-b-c bounce - this may be short-term bearish. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week is 3/19, the Tuesday after a monthly option expiration and 3/21-3/22 which includes the Spring Equinox.