All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 29, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The stock market liked the PCE inflation report and that gave the SPX a boost into the close (plus end of month window dressing).  The SPX did give us a B-Wave test of the 5111 high from 2/23 and we could now expect a C-Wave down on Friday to finish an EW a-b-c correction. Multiple Fibonacci time counts converged on Monday, 2/26, the 3-star critical reversal date for this week. We could still see a 5th wave higher above 5111 after the SPX finishes its EW a-b-c correction on Friday. The solar-lunar cycle volatilities for the NDX and DJIA are predicted to increase on Sunday/Monday. We may not see a the much-anticipated SPX correction start until next week after a potential 5th wave run above 5111. However, we are still intermediate-term bullish on the stock market and are looking for higher highs into June. After a strong November, December and January and a strong NVDA report, the SPX could see a 3%-5% correction in the first half of March. We may get a chance to sell our SQQQ, SPXS and TZA shares at some point in March. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

2/29/24 (Commentary for Thursday)  The SPX consolidation from early 2/23 is taking the shape of an EW a-b-c "flat correction" with today being a B-Wave test of the 5111 high. We could see a C-Wave down to test SPX 5057 on Friday. For next week, a 5th wave higher above 5111 is likely. The SPX may have finished 5-waves up on the daily chart from 1/5 and an intermediate cycle high could be seen next week around SPX 5172. The VIX closed Thursday below its 50-day-ema and that is bullish for for the SPX. Bitcoin continued to hold up on Thursday, but key Bitcoin stocks declined hard which is bearish for the cryptocurrency. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a possible 3%-5% pullback into March after a possible intermediate-term high is made above SPX 5111. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a new ATH into the 2/23-2/26 Full Moon Timing Window at SPX 5111 after finishing its 3-3-5 wave corrective pattern on 2/21 before the NVDA earnings came out. The sideways consolidation in the SPX since early Friday is bullish for one more higher high above 5111 next week.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold rallied on the PCE inflation report but gold stocks continue to lag gold.  

Stocks – The SPX made a B-Wave test of the SPX 5111 ATH late Thursday. For Friday, we could see the C-Wave down of an EW a-b-c correction that could test 1957.

Gold – After the PCE inflation report, gold rallied up to test $20574 and more rally is likely. NEM finally perked up but did not penetrate its downtrend line on the daily chart.

Silver –  Silver rallied to test $23 before consolidating - more rally is likely.  

Crude Oil – Crude oil is consolidating sideways below $79 Thursday evening. 

Dollar Index – The USD pulled back to test 103.5 briefly before shooting back up over 104. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 2/29-3/1.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 28, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX continued its 4-day sideways consolidation from early 2/23, but how the stock market reacts to tomorrow's PCE inflation data will set the short term trend. Chances are we could reverse up tomorrow and test the SPX 5111 ATH before a 3%-5% correction down early next week, but a hot PCE report could send the market down tomorrow, if we take out SPX 5057. Multiple Fibonacci time counts converged on Monday, 2/26, as a potential reversal date, and the low Tuesday at SPX 5057 is in the orb of that reversal date. From early Friday, the SPX declined sideways into the weekend Full Moon and Monday's 3-star critical reversal day. We could still see a 5th wave higher above 5111 on Thursday/Friday. The solar-lunar cycle volatility for the NDX and DJIA was predicted to be low this week and that has transpired so far.  We may not see a the much-anticipated SPX correction start until early next week. However, we are still intermediate-term bullish on the stock market and are looking for higher highs into June. After a strong November, December and January and a strong NVDA report, the SPX could see a 3%-5% correction going into March soon. We may get a chance to sell our SQQQ, SPXS and TZA shares at some point into early March. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

2/28/24 (Commentary for Wednesday)  The SPX consolidated in a 4th-wave correction from early Friday and may have made a low at SPX 5057 on Tuesday. We could see a 5th wave higher Thursday to test SPX 5111. The SPX may have finished 5-waves up on the daily chart from 1/5 and an intermediate cycle high could be seen early next week. The VIX closed Wednesday slightly below its 50-day-ema and that is bullish for for the SPX. Today, Bitcoin was center-stage as it gave us a 5-wave rally on the hourly chart that looked exhaustive. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a possible 3%-5% pullback into March after a possible intermediate-term high is made above SPX 5111. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a new ATH into the 2/23-2/26 Full Moon Timing Window at SPX 5111 after finishing its 3-3-5 wave corrective pattern on 2/21 before the NVDA earnings came out. The sideways consolidation in the SPX since early Friday is bullish for one more higher high above 5111 on Thursday/Friday.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold has been correcting sideways since Friday's bounce into the weekend Full Moon - the PCE inflation report early Thursday will be a catalyst.  

Stocks – The SPX continued to consolidate sideways in a potential 4th wave that could have bottomed on Tuesday at 5057. We could see a reversal higher tomorrow in a potential 5th wave above 5111 if the market likes the PCE inflation report.

Gold – Gold has consolidated sideways since the weekend Full Moon. AEM is trying to lead but NEM and GOLD are weighing down the GDX.

Silver –  Silver may have finished an EW a-b-c correction down into Monday's Full Moon Timing Window - a move above $23.50 will confirm a low.  

Crude Oil – Crude oil gave us a false break out attempt above $79 today. 

Dollar Index – The USD tested 104.24 early Wednesday morning before pulling back in 5-waves into Wednesday evening. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 2/29-3/1.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 27, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX could still be tracing out a 4th wave from early Friday, and a 5th wave higher may be seen on Wednesday/Thursday. Multiple Fibonacci time counts converged on Monday, 2/26, as a potential reversal date, and the low today at SPX 5057 is in the orb of that reversal date. From early Friday, the SPX declined sideways into the weekend Full Moon and Monday's 3-star critical reversal day. We could still see a 5th wave higher above 5111 on Wednesday. The solar-lunar cycle volatility for the NDX and DJIA was predicted to be low this week and that has transpired so far.  We may not see a the much-anticipated SPX correction start until early next week. However, we are still intermediate-term bullish on the stock market and are looking for higher highs into June. After a strong November, December and January and a strong NVDA report, the SPX could see a 3%-5% correction going into March soon. We may get a chance to sell our SQQQ, SPXS and TZA shares at some point into early March. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

2/27/24 (Commentary for Tuesday)  The SPX consolidated in a 4th-wave correction from early Friday and may have made a low at SPX 5057. We could see a 5th wave higher Wednesday above SPX 5111. The SPX may have finished 5-waves up on the daily chart from 1/5 and an intermediate cycle high could be seen early next week. The VIX closed Tuesday below its 50-day-ema and that is bullish for for the SPX. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a possible 3%-5% pullback into March after a possible intermediate-term high is made in the 2/23-2/27 Full Moon Timing  Window. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a new ATH into the 2/23-2/26 Full Moon Timing Window at SPX 5111 after finishing its 3-3-5 wave corrective pattern on 2/21 before the NVDA earnings came out. The sideways consolidation in the SPX since early Friday is bullish for one more higher high above 5111.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold has been correcting sideways since Friday's bounce into the weekend Full Moon - the PCE inflation report early Thursday will be a catalyst.  

Stocks – The SPX continued to consolidate sideways in a potential 4th wave. We could see a reversal higher tomorrow in a potential 5th wave above 5111.

Gold – Gold has consolidated sideways since the weekend Full Moon. AEM is trying to lead but NEM and GOLD are weighing down the GDX.

Silver –  Silver may have finished an EW a-b-c correction down into Monday's Full Moon Timing Window. - 

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested its R2 resistance pivot at $79 today late in the session and pulled back.

Dollar Index – The USD is coiling at 103.81 Tuesday evening and may ready to bounce. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 2/23-2/27.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 26, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: By our E-Wave count, the SPX finished a Wave 3 early Friday at 5111 and then started a 4th Wave correction that continued into Monday's close. Multiple Fibonacci time counts converged on today, 2/26, as a potential reversal date. From early Friday, the SPX declined sideways into the weekend Full Moon and today's 3-star critical reversal day. We could still see a 5th wave higher above 5111 on Tuesday. Since the solar-lunar cycle volatility for the NDX and DJIA looks subdued this week - we may not see a the much-anticipated SPX correction start until early next week. However, we are still intermediate-term bullish on the stock market and are looking for higher highs into June. After a strong November, December and January and a strong NVDA report, the SPX could see a 3%-5% correction going into March soon. We may get a chance to sell our SQQQ, SPXS and TZA shares at some point into early March. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

2/26/24 (Commentary for Monday)  The SPX consolidated in a 4th-wave correction from early Friday into Monday's close. We could see a 5th wave higher tomorrow above SPX 5111. The SPX may have finished 5-waves up on the daily chart from 1/5 and an intermediate cycle high could be seen early next week. The VIX once again closed above its 50-day-ema on its daily chart and that is a SELL SIGNAL for the SPX. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a possible 3%-5% pullback into March after a possible intermediate-term high is made in the 2/23-2/27 Full Moon Timing  Window. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a new ATH into the 2/23-2/26 Full Moon Timing Window at SPX 5111 after finishing its 3-3-5 wave corrective pattern on 2/21 before the NVDA earnings came out. However, excessive trader bullishness has us looking for at least a short-term high in the SPX by 2/23-2/26.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  After 5-wave advances, gold and silver declined into  the 2/23-2/26 Full Moon Timing Window early Friday and reversed higher - this bounce could continue into Monday.  

Stocks – The SPX continued its advance and made another ATH at 5111 going into the Full Moon. Call option volume remained heavy on Friday, however, multiple Fibonacci time projections land on Monday and argue for a correction back to test SPX 4926 next week.

Gold – Gold finished 5-waves up last week and pulled back correctively into the 2/23-2/24 Full Moon Timing Window. AEM is trying to lead but NEM and GOLD are weighing down the GDX.

Silver –  Silver finished 5-waves up last week and pulled back correctively into the 2/23-2/24 Full Moon Timing Window - we could see more reversal higher on Monday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is pulling back into the 2/23-2/26 Full Moon Timing Window and could see a reversal higher on Monday to test $79.

Dollar Index – The USD is giving us an EW a-b-c correction from 105 and is giving us a B-Wave bounce that could test 104 on Monday. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 2/23-2/26.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - February 25, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX made another new ATH at 5111 in the 2/23-2/26 Full Moon Timing Window. However, multiple Fibonacci time counts converge on Monday, 2/26 as a potential reversal date. The SPX has come too far too fast and is short-term overbought - we are looking for a correction to start on Monday with a potential pullback for another test of SPX 4926 next week. However, we are still intermediate-term bullish on the stock market. The IWM appears close to making a catch-up move as we are seeing market breadth expand. After a strong November, December and January and a strong NVDA report, the SPX could see a 3%-5% correction going into March. We may get a chance to sell our SQQQ, SPXS and TZA shares at some point into late February/early March. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

2/23/24 (Commentary for Friday)  The SPX continued to advance and made another ATH at 5111 into the 2/23-2/26 Full Moon Timing Window. We also made new ATHs on the SPX, NDX and DJIA. Still, the SPX may have finished 5-waves up on the daily chart from 1/5 and an intermediate cycle high could be seen early Monday above SPX 5100. The VIX once again closed above its 50-day-ema on its daily chart and that is a SELL SIGNAL for the SPX going into Monday. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a possible 3%-5% pullback into March after a possible intermediate-term high is made in the 2/23-2/26 Full Moon Timing  Window. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a new ATH into the 2/23-2/26 Full Moon Timing Window at SPX 5111 after finishing its 3-3-5 wave corrective pattern on 2/21 before the NVDA earnings came out. However, excessive trader bullishness has us looking for at least a short-term high in the SPX by 2/23-2/26.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  After 5-wave advances, gold and silver declined into  the 2/23-2/26 Full Moon Timing Window early Friday and reversed higher - this bounce could continue into Monday.  

Stocks – The SPX continued its advance and made another ATH at 5111 going into the Full Moon. Call option volume remained heavy on Friday, however, multiple Fibonacci time projections land on Monday and argue for a correction back to test SPX 4926 next week.

Gold – Gold finished 5-waves up last week and pulled back correctively into the 2/23-2/24 Full Moon Timing Window. AEM is trying to lead but NEM and GOLD are weighing down the GDX.

Silver –  Silver finished 5-waves up last week and pulled back correctively into the 2/23-2/24 Full Moon Timing Window - we could see more reversal higher on Monday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is pulling back into the 2/23-2/26 Full Moon Timing Window and could see a reversal higher on Monday to test $79.

Dollar Index – The USD is giving us an EW a-b-c correction from 105 and is giving us a B-Wave bounce that could test 104 on Monday. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 2/23-2/26.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 22, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The stellar earnings from NVDA launched a huge rally day Thursday that saw the SPX, NDX and DJIA all make new all-time highs. However, the excessive bullishness seen on Twitter and other platforms today has turned us short-term bearish and we are now looking for a retest of SPX 4926 by next week. Overnight, the E-mini is tracing out a Wave 4 of the wave higher that NVDA ignited and we could see a 5th wave gap up on the open early Friday for the SPX. After a strong November, December and January and a strong NVDA report, the SPX could see a 3%-5% correction going into March. We may get a chance to sell our SQQQ, SPXS and TZA shares at some point into late February/early March. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

2/22/24 (Commentary for Thursday)  The SPX exploded today after NVDA's earnings electrified the stock market and we made new ATHs on the SPX, NDX and DJIA. The SPX may have finished 5-waves up on the daily chart from 1/5 and the intermediate cycle high may still be seen early Friday above SPX 5100. The VIX once again closed above its 50-day-ema on its daily chart and that is a looming SELL SIGNAL for the SPX going into Friday. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a possible 5%-8% pullback into March after a possible intermediate-term high is made in the 2/22-2/23 turn window. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a new ATH into the 2/22-2/23 turn window at SPX 5094.39 after finishing its 3-3-5 wave corrective pattern on 2/21. However, excessive trader bullishness has us looking for an intermediate cycle top in the SPX by 2/23.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  Gold stocks are weaker than gold and that is a problem for the PM sector.  It appears that Bitcoin, Bitcoin stocks and uranium stocks have stolen speculative juices from the PM sector.

Stocks – The SPX vaulted to a new ATH on the back of NVDA's stellar earnings. However, the Option Premium Ratio fell from 0.68 to 0.35 today as speculation soared in call option buying, We are looking for a turn down tomorrow in the SPX and another test of SPX 4926 by next week.

Gold – Gold is still holding up but is unable to really advance if gold stocks can't get a bid - AEM is trying to lead but NEM and GOLD are weighing down the GDX.

Silver –  Silver is pulling back to $22.66 late Thursday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is coiling below $79 for another move higher.

Dollar Index – The USD bounced correctively to 104 and continues to pull back. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week is 2/20-2/21 and 2/22-2/23.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 21, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Wednesday turned out to be an extremely volatile day for the stock market. The SPX gave us a gap-down open and then rallied into the FOMC minutes at 2:00 PM EDT before selling off to lows of the session and then rallying into the close. A hawkish statement from the Fed caused a sell off which gave the SPX an undercut low to 4946. An outstanding earnings report from NVDA have the stock futures up strong overnight and we could have a gap up open Thursday morning. We may have finished a 3-3-5 correction today in the SPX and some indices like the NDX could make another ATH tomorrow. The SPX may have made an intermediate top on 2/12 at SPX 5048.09 as we may have finished an EW 5-waves up from 1/5 on the SPX daily chart - we'll see if the SPX can make another ATH on Thursday/Friday. After a strong November, December and January and a strong earnings season, the market could see a 5% correction going into March, but we could see one more new high in the SPX or NDX first. We may get a chance to sell our SQQQ, SPXS and TZA shares at some point into late February/early March. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

2/21/24 (Commentary for Wednesday)  The SPX may have finished a 3-3-5 correction today and should have a gap-up open early Thursday. The SPX may have finished 5-waves up on the daily chart from 1/5 and the intermediate cycle high may have been seen on 2/12 at SPX 5048.39. The VIX once again closed above its 50-day-ema on its daily chart and that is a potential SELL SIGNAL for the SPX sometime on Thursday. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a possible 5%-8% pullback into March after a possible intermediate-term high was made in the 2/9-2/12 New Moon Timing Window. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a high into the 2/9-2/12 New Moon Timing Window at SPX 5048.39 before falling in a 3-3-5 wave corrective pattern that may have finished a Wave A down late 2/13, a Wave B high at 5038.7 on 2/16 and started a possible C-Wave down this week to 4920. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  With the pullback in the USD the last few trading days, gold has managed a rally to $2042.  After a 5-wave rally into the weekend, gold has consolidated sideways near its Person's Pivot at $2038.

Stocks – The SPX fell to 4944 after a hawkish FOMC minutes and then rallied into the close. The solid NVDA earnings report should propel a gap-up open early Thursday, but the spiking Option Premium Ratio is warning of an important high soon. 

Gold – Gold bottomed at $1996 early 2/14 and gave us a 5-wave rally into Friday's close. With a correcting USD, gold is consolidating around its Person's Pivot at $2038 Wednesday evening.

Silver –  After peaking at $23.56 late Friday, silver is consolidating around $22.96 Wednesday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is holding up at $78.16 Wednesday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD is consolidating around $103.87 Wednesday evening. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 2/20-2/21.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 20, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: It appears that a C-Wave down started late Friday in the SPX and the obvious target is 4920. Wednesday should be a volatile day as we have FOMC minutes at 2:00 PM EDT and the highly anticipated earnings from NVDA after the market close. We are in a C-Wave down of a 3-3-5 corrective pattern that could test 4920 tomorrow. The SPX may have made an intermediate top on 2/12 at SPX 5048.09 as we may have finished an EW 5-waves up from 1/5 on the SPX daily chart. After a strong November, December and January and a strong earnings season, the market could see a 5% correction going into March, but we could see one more new high in the SPX first. We may get a chance to sell our SQQQ, SPXS and TZA shares at some point into late February/early March. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

2/20/24 (Commentary for Tuesday)  The SPX peaked a B-Wave top at 5038.7 on Friday and started a C-Wave down of a 3-3-5  wave correction that could test 4920 tomorrow. The SPX may have finished 5-waves up on the daily chart from 1/5 and the intermediate cycle high may have been seen on 2/12 at SPX 5048.39. The VIX closed back above its 50-day-ema on its daily chart and that is a SELL SIGNAL for the SPX tomorrow. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a possible 5%-8% pullback into March after a possible intermediate-term high was made in the 2/9-2/12 New Moon Timing Window. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a high into the 2/9-2/12 New Moon Timing Window at SPX 5048.39 before starting a possible 3-3-5 wave pattern correction that may have finished a Wave A down late Tuesday, a Wave B high at 5038.7 on Friday and started a possible C-Wave down this week to 4920. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  With the pullback in the USD the last few trading days, gold has managed a rally to $2042.  After a 5-wave rally into the weekend, gold has continued to sub-divide up early this week.

Stocks – The SPX continued its C-Wave down from late Friday and looks poised to test 4920 on Wednesday. 

Gold – Gold bottomed at $1996 early 2/14 and gave us a 5-wave rally into Friday's close. With a correcting USD, gold is managing to test $2042 into Tuesday evening.

Silver –  After peaking at $23.56 late Friday, silver pulled back into Tuesday and tested $23.00.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is holding up at $77.22 Tuesday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD spiked to test 105 after the hot CPI report and then started an impulse leg down on the hourly chart that tested $103.80 early Tuesday. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 2/20-2/21.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - February 18, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: A hotter-than-expected PPI inflation report sold the market off early Friday and the 3-3-5 wave correction scenario looks in play for the SPX. Exuberant trading in ARM and SMCI last week also argue that we may have made an intermediate-term top on 2/12 at SPX 5048.39. Also, we may have peaked a B-Wave test of the ATH at 5038.7 on late Friday and started a C-Wave down. Monday is a trading holiday, but the Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turning point day. The NVDA earnings after Tuesday's close and the FOMC minutes on Wednesday will also be a potential catalyst. We may be in a C-Wave down of a 3-3-5 corrective pattern that should test first support at SPX 5000 early Tuesday and then 4920. The SPX may have made an intermediate top on Monday at SPX 5048.09 as we may have finished an EW 5-waves up from 1/5 on the SPX daily chart. After a strong November, December and January and a strong earnings season, the market could see a 5-8% correction going into March, but we could see one more new high in the SPX first. We may get a chance to sell our SQQQ, SPXS and TZA shares at some point into late February/early March. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

2/16/24 (Commentary for Friday)  The SPX may have peaked a B-Wave at 5038.7 on Friday and started a C-Wave down of a 3-3-5  wave correction. We could see a test of SPX 5000 and then SPX 4920 on Tuesday/Wednesday. The SPX may have finished 5-waves up on the daily chart from 1/5 and the intermediate cycle high may have been seen on 2/12 at SPX 5048.39. The VIX closed back above its 50-day-ema on its daily chart and that could be a SELL SIGNAL for the SPX next week. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a possible 5%-8% pullback into March after a possible intermediate-term high was made in the 2/9-2/12 New Moon Timing Window. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX made a high into the 2/9-2/12 New Moon Timing Window at SPX 5048.39 before starting a possible 3-3-5 wave pattern correction that may have finished a Wave A down late Tuesday, a Wave B high at 5038.7 on Friday and started a possible C-Wave down into the weekend. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  The hot CPI report spiked the 10-yr US rate and the USD while smashing gold down to test $1996 early Wednesday. Gold gave us a 5-wave rally into the weekend.

Stocks – The PPI inflation report can in hot and may have started a C-Wave down of a 3-3-5 correction scenario by Friday's close. The Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turn window in our work and we could see a test of SPX 5000 early Tuesday and possibly a test of 4920 on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Gold – Gold may have bottomed at $1996 early 2/14 and gave us a 5-wave rally into Friday's close. We are cautiously bullish here. A quick flush to $1975 will have us adding some GLD.

Silver –  Silver tested $21.97 early Wednesday and then rallied in a strong 5-wave pattern that tested $23.56 late Friday. We are cautiously bullish here.

Crude Oil – Crude oil may have given us a B-Wave test of the recent $79 high on Friday.

Dollar Index – The USD spiked to test 105 after the hot CPI report and may have started an impulse leg down on the hourly chart that tested $104.27 late Friday. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 2/20-2/21.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 15, 2024

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Despite a weaker than expected retails sales report, the SPX continued to rally and made an all-time closing high of 5029.73. However, the correction from Tuesday may be extending as we approach Friday's monthly expiration. Friday's PPI inflation report should set the early tone.  A hotter-than-expected inflation report could reinforce trader fears aggravated from Tuesday's CPI report and give us a C-Wave down of a 3-3-5 corrective pattern that could test weekly lows at SPX 4920. If the market likes the PPI report, all might be forgiven for the inflation bears, and the SPX could test the weekly high at SPX 5048.39. With 5-waves down on the hourly chart, the SPX may have made an intermediate top on Monday at SPX 5048.09 - this could give us another correction leg down into next week. We may have finished an EW 5-waves up from 1/5 on the SPX daily chart, but we could still see a retest of the ATH at 5048 by 2/20, the Tuesday after the monthly expiration. This week is the monthly option expiration week for February and is statistically 73% bullish. After a strong November, December and January and a strong earnings season, the market could see a 5-8% correction going into March, but we could see one more new high in the NDX first. We may get a chance to sell our SQQQ, SPXS and TZA shares at some point into March. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

2/15/24 (Commentary for Thursday)  The SPX made a new closing high at 5029.73, and if the market likes the PPI inflation report early Friday, we could see a test of the weekly high at 5048.39 tomorrow. Alternatively, the SPX may have finished 5-waves up on the daily chart from 1/5 and the intermediate cycle high may have been seen on Monday at SPX 5048.39. However, the VIX closed back within its upper Bollinger band on Wednesday and Thursday and that is a buy signal for the SPX. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a possibly 5%-8% pullback into March after a possible intermediate-term high was made in the 2/9-2/12 New Moon Timing Window on Monday. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED)  The SPX got a run to higher highs into the 2/9-2/12 New Moon Timing Window at SPX 5048.39 before starting a possible 3-3-5 wave pattern correction that may have finished a Wave A down late Tuesday, a Wave B rally on Thursday's close and a possible C-Wave down Friday on a hot PPI report. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED)  The hot CPI report spiked the 10-yr US rate and the USD while smashing gold down to test $2000 Tuesday evening. Gold could do a final washout to $1975 before we get much of a reversal higher.

Stocks – The PPI inflation report early Friday should set the short-term trend in the SPX. If we get a hot report, then the SPX ATH set on Monday at 5048.39 could be an intermediate-term high and we could start a C-Wave down on Friday.

Gold – Gold could wash out to $1975 before we get a reversal, but the rally in the GDX today gives some hope of a near-term bounce in the PM sector. The market liked AEM's earnings after the close.

Silver –  Silver tested $21.97 early Wednesday and then reversed up in 5-waves to test $23 Thursday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil bounced to make a B-Wave test of the recent high at $79.29 before reversing down today.

Dollar Index – The USD spiked to test 105 after the hot CPI report and may have started an impulse leg down on the hourly chart. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this is 2/9-2/12.