All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 28, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX once again made highs for the week today at 4793 as it grinded higher for a retest of the 1/4/2022 ATH at 4818. We are now looking for a test of the ATH by Friday or early next. After last week's SPX low at 4698, we are looking for the SPX and gold to rally into 1/8-1/11. The SPX could reach a new all-time high at 5100 and gold could test $2188. The NYSE composite has a two-year cycle that is due by mid-January before a steep correction into March. The 10-yr US rate does not seem to want to reverse higher and only gave us a 3-wave corrective bounce today. The VIX just gave us a weak, corrective bounce and looks  like its in a pattern to test the lows at 11.85 by early January. We still have shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA - we're hanging on to these short shares for potential selling in mid-January. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

12/28/23 (Commentary for Thursday) From the 12/20 SPX high at 4778, the SPX traced out a triangle from 12/20 to 12/22 at the Mercury retrograde midpoint and then reversed higher today to test 4793 on Thursday. We are now looking for a test of the SPX ATH at 4818 by Friday, 12/29 or early next week. Farther out, we could see a test of SPX 5100 and gold $2188 by 1/8-1/11 in a final blow off. The US 10-yr rate remained in its down trend into Thursday's close on the back of a very well bid US 10-yr note auction on Tuesday that drove the 10-yr US rate down to 3.785%. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a retest of SPX 4300 in the second half of January. Crude oil made a high at $76.22 on Tuesday's Full Moon and then pulled back to test $72 Thursday evening. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The trend of the 10-yr US rate remained down into Wednesday's close - we need to see an impulsive reversal up on the TNX to get a longer SPX correction in time. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold made a low at $2065 early on Tuesday's Full Moon and then reversed higher to test highs for the week at $2099 by Wednesday evening - we are now looking for a correction low on 12/29 and then a reversal higher.

Stocks –  The SPX tagged 4793 today and made highs for the week. We are now looking for a test of the SPX ATH of 4818 by 12/29-1/2. 

Gold – Gold reversed up from its early low at $2065 on Tuesday's Full Moon and then rallied up to test $2099 on Wednesday evening.

Silver – We expect silver to rally above $24.85 by 12/29-1/2.

Bonds – After a well-bid 10-yr US note auction on Tuesday, bonds rallied up to test 125'30 Wednesday evening before a 3-wave correction.

Crude Oil -  Crude oil spiked  higher to $76.22 on Tuesday's Full Moon before pulling back to test $72 Thursday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD broke important support at 101.17 and tested 100.62 Thursday morning before bouncing correctively.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 12/26-12/27 Full Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 27, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX made highs for the week today at 4786 as it grinds higher for a retest of the 1/4/2022 ATH at 4818. We are now looking for a test of the ATH this week or early next.  After last week's SPX low at 4698, we are looking for the SPX and gold to rally into 1/8-1/11. The SPX could reach a new all-time high at 5100 and gold could test $2188. The NYSE composite has a two-year cycle that is due by mid-January before a steep correction into March. The 10-yr US rate does not seem to want to reverse higher and continued to grind lower today to 3.785%. The VIX spiked up to test 13.04 near the open Wednesday before reversing down to test 12.4 - we are looking for a test of the lows at 11.85 by early January. We still have shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA - we're hanging on to these short shares for potential selling in mid-January. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

12/27/23 (Commentary for Wednesday) From the 12/20 SPX high at 4778, the SPX traced out a triangle from 12/20 to 12/22 at the Mercury retrograde midpoint and then reversed higher today to test 4786 on Wednesday. We are now looking for a test of the SPX ATH at 4818 by Friday, 12/29 or early next week. Farther out, we could see a test of SPX 5100 and gold $2188 by 1/8-1/11. The US 10-yr rate remained in its down trend into Wednesday's close on the back of a very well bid US 10-yr note auction on Tuesday that drove the 10-yr US rate down to 3.785%. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a retest of SPX 4300 in the second half of January. Crude oil made a low at $73.16 early on Tuesday's Full Moon and then reversed up to test $76.22 Tuesday evening before a decline to $73.83 Wednesday evening. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The trend of the 10-yr US rate remained down into Wednesday's close - we need to see a reversal up on the TNX to get a longer SPX correction in time. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold made a low at $2065 early on Tuesday's Full Moon and then reversed higher to test $2095 by Wednesday evening- we are now looking for higher highs by 12/29.

Stocks –  The SPX tagged 4786 today and made highs for the week. We are now looking for a test of the SPX ATH of 4818 by 12/29. 

Gold – Gold reversed up from its early low at $2065 on Tuesday's Full Moon and then rallied up to test $2095 on Wednesday evening.

Silver – We expect silver to rally above $24.85 by 12/29.

Bonds – After a well-bid 10-yr US note auction on Tuesday, bonds rallied up to test 125'30 Wednesday evening.

Crude Oil -  Crude oil spiked  higher to $76.22 on Tuesday's Full Moon before pulling back to $73.83 on Wednesday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD broke important support at 101.17 and is testing 100.77 Wednesday night - this is holding gold and silver up.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 12/26-12/27 Full Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 26, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX ended its triangle correction late Friday and rallied above the 12/20 high of 4778 today. We are now looking for a test of the 1/4/2022 high at 4818 by Friday. In our opinion, the SPX corrected sideways into the 12/22 Mercury retrograde cycle midpoint and it is now ready to test the ATH by Friday. After last week's SPX low at 4698, we are looking for the SPX and gold to rally into 1/8-1/11. The SPX could reach a new all-time high at 5100 and gold could test $2188. The NYSE composite has a two-year cycle that is due by mid-January before a steep correction into March. The 10-yr US rate does not seem to want to reverse higher and that is needed here for a lengthy SPX correction. The VIX spiked up to 13.80 early today before reversing down to test 13.0 - we are looking for a test of the lows at 11.85 by early January. We still have shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA - we're hanging on to these short shares for potential selling in mid-January. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

12/26/23 (Commentary for Tuesday) From Wednesday's SPX high at 4778, the SPX traced out a triangle from 12/20 to 12/22 at the Mercury retrograde midpoint and then reversed higher today to test 4784. We are now looking for a test of the SPX ATH at 4818 by Friday, 12/29. Farther out, we could see a test of SPX 5100 and gold $2188 by 1/11/24. The US 10-yr rate remained in its down trend into Tuesday's close on the back of a very well bid US 10-yr note auction. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a retest of SPX 4300 in mid-January. Crude oil made a low at $73.16 early on today's Full Moon and then reversed up to test $76.22 - this looks short-term bullish. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The trend of the 10-yr US rate remained down into Tuesday's close - we need to see a reversal up on the TNX to get a longer SPX correction in time. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold tested made a low at $2065 early on today's Full Moon and then reversed higher to test $2076- we are looking for higher highs by 12/29.

Stocks –  The SPX ended its correction from Wednesday to Friday's Mercury retrograde midpoint and then reversed higher on Tuesday to exceed the high on 12/20 and test 4784 - we are now looking for a test of the SPX ATH of 4818 by 12/29. 

Gold – Gold reversed up from its early low at $2065 on today's Full Moon and then rallied up to test $2076.

Silver – We expect silver to rally above $24.85 by 12/29.

Bonds – Bonds are holding up at 124'13 Tuesday evening.

Crude Oil -  Crude oil bottomed at $73.16 on today's Full Moon and then reversed higher to $76.22.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing the 101.43 low on Tuesday evening and could go lower.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 12/26-12/27 Full Moon Timing Window.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - December 24, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX entered a correction on 12/20 that traced out a triangle pattern into Friday. We view this as just a "speedbump" in the SPX blow off as we enter the last five trading days of 2023. We are looking for the SPX rally to resume on 12/26 and start to test the ATH at 4818.62 by 12/29 or early January. If so, the correction low was Tuesday's low at 4697.82 and we should soon take out Tuesday's high at 4778. If we take out Tuesday's low at 4697.82, that will signal the start of a larger correction in price and time. In our opinion, the SPX corrected sideways into the 12/22 Mercury retrograde cycle midpoint and we look ready to rally up again early Tuesday. After last week's SPX low at 4698, we are looking for the SPX and gold to rally into 1/8-1/11. The SPX could reach a new all-time high at 5100 and gold could test $2188.  We had a 3-star critical reversal turn date on 12/15-12/19 for the SPX and that came in as a high on Wednesday. The 10-yr US rate does not seem to want to reverse higher and that is needed here for a lengthy SPX correction. The VIX spiked up to 14.49, but we are looking for a test of the lows at 11.85 by early January. We still have shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA - we're hanging on to these short shares for potential selling in mid-January. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

12/22/23 (Commentary for Friday) From Wednesday's SPX high at 4778, the SPX traced out a triangle from 12/20 to 12/22 to the Mercury retrograde midpoint. With the $TRIN spiking to 3.2 at the open on Friday, we are bullish for a SPX rally early Tuesday. The SPX started a correction near our 12/18-12/19 turn window on 12/20. We expect higher SPX highs to be made no later than Wednesday. The US 10-yr rate remained in its down trend into Friday's close. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a retest of SPX 4300 in mid-January. Crude oil rallied in 5-waves from the open on Thursday and held $72.44 - this looks short-term bullish. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The trend of the 10-yr US rate remained down into Friday's close - we need to see a reversal up on the TNX to get a longer SPX correction in time. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold may be on a rally into the 12/26-12/27 Full Moon Timing Window this week.

Stocks –  The SPX appears to have ended its correction from Wednesday to Friday's Mercury retrograde midpoint- we are bullish for a reversal higher on Tuesday. 

Gold – Gold appears to be on a rally into the 12/26-12/27 Full Moon Timing Window.

Silver – We expect silver to rally into the 12/26-12/27 turn window.

Bonds – Bonds held up at 123'31 at Friday's close after the PCE inflation report.

Crude Oil -  Crude oil held up at $73.50 on Friday's close and looks to go higher.

Dollar Index – The USD may have made a short-term low at 101.43 on Friday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week was the 12/22 Mercury retrograde midpoint..

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 21, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  We viewed yesterday's selloff as part of a "Running B-Wave" corrective pattern. If so, the correction low was Tuesday's low at 4697.82 and we should soon take out Tuesday's high at 4778. We will get the PCE inflation report early Friday and this will set the short-term market tone tomorrow. If we take out Tuesday's low at 4697.82, that will signal the start of a larger correction in price and time. In our opinion, the SPX is pulling back in a quick correction that could last into the 12/21-12/22 turn window which includes the 12/21 winter solstice(in Capricorn) and the 12/22 midpoint of the Mercury retrograde cycle. After a low on Thursday/Friday(which may be in already), we are looking for the SPX and gold to rally into 1/8-1/11. The SPX could reach a new all-time high at 5100 and gold could test $2188.  We had a 3-star critical reversal turn date on 12/15-12/19 for the SPX and that came in as a high on Wednesday. The 10-yr US rate does not seem to want to reverse higher and that is needed here for a lengthy SPX correction. The VIX spiked up to 14.49 on Thursday, but we are looking for a test of the lows at 11.85 by early January. We still have shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA - we're hanging on to these short shares for potential selling in mid-January. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

12/21/23 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX rebounded impulsively higher from Tuesday's scary sell off. If our "Running B-Wave" interpretation is correct for the SPX, a cooler-than-expected PCE inflation report could send the SPX to test the 4778 high seen on Tuesday. The SPX started a correction near our 12/18-12/19 turn window but we expect it to end by Thursday/Friday(it may have ended by the close on Tuesday) and then continue its blow off. We expect higher SPX highs to be made no later than Monday. The US 10-yr rate remained in a down trend into Thursday's close. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a retest of SPX 4300 in mid-January. Crude oil rallied in 5-waves from the open on Thursday and held $72.44 - this looks short-term bullish. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The trend of the 10-yr US rate remained down into Thursday's close - we need to see a reversal up on the TNX to get a longer SPX correction in time. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold may have bottomed over the weekend when the Moon ingressed into Aquarius which often brings a short-term low to the PM sector. Chairman Powell may also be reluctant to raise rates any more in an election year and may feel political pressure to lower them in Q1 2024.

Stocks –  The E-mini rebounded overnight Tuesday in a 5-wave advance. The SPX correction may have ended at the close of Tuesday's session if our "Running B-Wave corrective interpretation" is working. The early PCE inflation report will set the market tone pre-market.

Gold – Gold moved nicely higher today. Gold may have ended its correction after Chairman Powell's dovish comments on 12/13. 

Silver – Silver is holding up at $24.77 Thursday evening.  

Bonds – Bonds are holding up at 123'28 Thursday evening before the PCE inflation report.

Crude Oil -  Crude oil declined to $72.44 and then rallied up to $74.6 Thursday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD is declining to 101.76 Thursday evening and supporting the PM sector.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 12/19 turn day.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 20, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX rallied early Wednesday but then descended hard in a quick correction that took us down 70 points on the SPX. Is this the start of a large correction in price and time? We don't think so. In our opinion, the SPX is pulling back in a quick, EW a-b-c correction that could last into the 12/21-12/22 turn window which includes the 12/21 winter solstice(in Capricorn) and the 12/22 midpoint of the Mercury retrograde cycle. After a low on Thursday/Friday, we are looking for the SPX and gold to rally into 1/8-1/11. The SPX could reach a new all-time high at 5100 and gold could test $2188.  We had a 3-star critical reversal turn date on 12/15-12/19 for the SPX and that came in as a high today. The 10-yr US rate does not seem to want to reverse higher and that is needed here for a lengthy SPX correction. The VIX spiked up to a13.93, but we are looking for a test of the lows at 11.85 by early January. We still have shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA - we're hanging on to these short shares for potential selling in mid-January. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

12/20/23 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX moved to rally highs from late October to 4778 early Wednesday but then succumbed to a quick and scary correction into the close. The SPX started a correction near our 12/18-12/19 turn window but we expect it to end by Thursday/Friday and then continue its blow off. We view today's correction as a Running B-Wave and we expect higher SPX highs to be made by Monday. The US 10-yr rate remained in a down trend into Wednesday's close. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a retest of SPX 4300 in mid-January. Crude oil rallied to $75.07 early Wednesday before a sharp correction down to $73.55 Thursday evening. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The trend of the 10-yr US rate remained down into Tuesday's close - we need to see a reversal up on the TNX to get a SPX correction. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold appears to be tracing out an EW a-b-c correction that could extend into Friday. Chairman Powell may also be reluctant to raise rates any more in an election year and may feel political pressure to lower them in Q1 2024.

Stocks –  The SPX rallied early Wednesday, tested 4778 and then declined into the close. We are looking for a decline into Thursday.

Gold – Gold gave us a thrust below $2000 and tested $1987 early on 12/13. Gold may have ended its correction after Chairman Powell's dovish comments on Fed Day but its price pattern is open for more correction into Thursday. 

Silver – Silver is holding up at $24.56 Wednesday evening.  

Bonds – Bonds rallied to 124'24 before a 3-wave correction into Wednesday evening.

Crude Oil -  Crude oil tested $75.37 early Wednesday and then declined in 5-waves. 

Dollar Index – The USD is holding at 102.35 Wednesday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 12/19 turn day.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 19, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX continued to sub-divide higher today into the close on today's turn window. Ideally, the SPX will give us an early decline on Wednesday that will let us get long.  The SPX did take out 4749.52 today closed near the high at 4768 - will the SPX now start a pullback to 4700 early Wednesday?  We have a 3-star critical reversal turn date on 12/15-12/19 and that now looks like a potential high today in the SPX. Mercury retrograde started on 12/13 and brought a big reversal to Chairman Powell's "hawkish pause scenario".  Powell's dovish demeanor on Fed Day really encouraged the bulls and the market breadth is still trying to broaden out. We were short-term bullish on the SPX into Tuesday but expected a short-term high above 4749 and the start of another correction - we will see what early Wednesday brings. The 10-yr US rate does not seem to want to reverse higher and that is needed here for a sharp SPX correction. The VIX continued to work on some kind of corrective bounce into Tuesday before another decline to test 11.85, in our opinion. We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We still have shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA - we're hanging on to these short shares for potential selling in mid-January. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

12/19/23 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX rallied to rally highs from late October to 4768 on Tuesday. The SPX now appears to be finishing an EW 5-wave rally from 10/27 into the 12/19 turn window from which we will look for a correction to start. We viewed the short-term SPX pattern here as bullish going into Tuesday and we tagged 4768 near the close(remember that the Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turning point day in our work). The US 10-yr rate remained in a down trend into Tuesday's close. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a retest of SPX 4300 in mid-January. Crude oil is holding up around $74.07 on Tuesday evening and the XLE made a weekly high at $85.52. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The trend of the 10-yr US rate remained down into Tuesday's close - we need to see a reversal up on the TNX to get a SPX correction. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold appears to be tracing out an EW a-b-c correction that could extend into January. Chairman Powell may also be reluctant to raise rates any more in an election year and may feel political pressure to lower them in Q1 2024.

Stocks –  The SPX went to a new rally high of 4768 near Tuesday's close and could be finishing a 5-wave rally pattern on the daily chart from 10/27 on Tuesday's turn window. How we trade into Wednesday/Thursday will be key to us

Gold – Gold gave us a thrust below $2000 and tested $1987 early on 12/13. Gold may have ended its correction after Chairman Powell's dovish comments on Fed Day but its price pattern is open for more correction into Wednesday/Thursday. 

Silver – Silver may have ended an EW a-b-c correction at $22.87 on 12/13.  

Bonds – Bonds are holding up at 123'27 Tuesday evening, and the US 10-yr bond rate is still in a down trend.

Crude Oil -  Crude oil may have ended a 5-wave rally to $74.61 on Monday and could be correcting sideways. 

Dollar Index – The USD is holding at 102.24 Tuesday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 12/19 turn day.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 18, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX gave us a quick 3-wave correction on 12/14 and started a 5th wave higher that could complete early Tuesday and finish the 5-wave rally on the daily from late October. We expect the SPX to take out 4749.52 on Tuesday and then start another correction down to test 4700 again. We have a 3-star critical reversal turn date on 12/15-12/18 and that now looks like a potential high by 12/19. Mercury retrograde started on 12/13 and brought a big reversal to Chairman Powell's "hawkish pause scenario".  Powell's dovish demeanor on Fed Day really encouraged the bulls and the market breadth is trying to broaden out. We are short-term bullish on the SPX into Tuesday but expect a short-term high above 4749 and the start of another correction. The 10-yr US rate does not seem to want to reverse higher and that is needed here for a sharp SPX correction. The VIX continues to work on some kind of corrective bounce into Tuesday before another decline to test 11.85. We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We still have shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA - we're hanging on to these short shares for potential selling in January. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

12/18/23 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX rallied to rally highs from late October above 4749 on Monday. The SPX now appears to be finishing an EW 5-wave rally from 10/27 into the 12/19 turn window from which we will look for a correction to start. We view the short-term SPX pattern here as bullish going into early Tuesday and are looking for a short-term high on Tuesday above 4952 (remember that the Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turning point day). The US 10-yr rate remained in a down trend into Monday's close. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a retest of SPX 4300 in January. Crude oil rallied to $74.51 on Monday and gave us a 5-wave rally completion on the hourly chart from $67.71 from 12/13. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The trend of the 10-yr US rate remained down into Monday's close - we need to see a reversal up on the TNX to get a SPX correction. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold appears to be tracing out an EW a-b-c correction that could extend into Tuesday. Chairman Powell may also be reluctant to raise rates any more in an election year and may feel political pressure to lower them in Q1 2024.

Stocks –  The SPX went to a new rally high of 4749 on Monday and could finish a 5-wave rally pattern on the daily chart from 10/27 by early Tuesday before a pullback to test 4700.

Gold – Gold gave us a thrust below $2000 and tested $1987 early Wednesday. Gold may have ended its correction after Chairman Powell's dovish comments on Fed Day but its price pattern is open for more correction into Tuesday. 

Silver – Silver may have ended an EW a-b-c correction at $23.95 on Monday.  

Bonds – Bonds are holding up at 123'18 Monday evening, and the US 10-yr bond rate is still in a down trend.

Crude Oil -  Crude oil may have ended a 5-wave rally to $74.51 on Monday. 

Dollar Index – The USD is holding at 102.5 Monday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 12/19 turn day.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - December 17, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX started a correction on Thursday's open and corrected into the Triple Witching expiration. We expect more SPX correction into Monday and perhaps into early Tuesday. We have a 3-star critical reversal turn date on 12/15-12/18 and that looks like a potential low by 12/19. Mercury retrograde started on Wednesday and brought a big reversal to Chairman Powell's "hawkish pause scenario".  Powell's dovish demeanor on Fed Day really encouraged the bulls and the market breadth continues to broaden out. We are short-term bearish on the SPX into Monday/Tuesday, but we would use any pullback to position long for more rally into X-mas. The 10-yr US rate does not seem to want to reverse higher and that is needed here for a sharp SPX correction. The VIX is working on some kind of corrective bounce into Monday/Tuesday before another decline to test 11.85. We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We still have shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA - we're hanging on to these short shares for potential selling in January. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

12/15/23 (Commentary for Friday) The SPX finished an EW a-b-c correction from the 12/1 close into the 12/6  low at 4547, and then rallied to 4738 on the open Thursday. The SPX now appears to be correcting into the 12/15-12/18 turn window from which we will look for some long trades into X-mas. We view the short-term SPX pattern here as bearish going into early Monday and we are looking for a reversal higher by Tuesday which is a turning point day (remember that the Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turning point day). The US 10-yr rate remained in a down trend into Friday's close. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a retest of SPX 4300 in January. Crude oil is holding above its Person's Pivot at $72.15 Sunday evening and we could see more correction in the XLE early Monday.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The trend of the 10-yr US rate remained down into Friday's close - we need to see a reversal up of the TNX to get a SPX correction. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold appears to be tracing out an EW a-b-c correction that could extend into Monday/Tuesday. Chairman Powell may also be reluctant to raise rates any more in an election year and may feel political pressure to lower them in Q1 2024.

Stocks –  The SPX started an EW a-b-c correction at the open Thursday which could extend down on Monday/Tuesday.

Gold – Gold gave us a thrust below $2000 and tested $1987 early Wednesday. Gold may have ended its correction after Chairman Powell's dovish comments on Fed Day but its price pattern is open for more correction into Monday/Tuesday. 

Silver – Silver is holding at $24.18 Sunday evening  - but we could see more correction on Monday/Tuesday.

Bonds – Bonds are holding up at 123'23 Sunday evening, and the US 10-yr bond rate is still in a down trend.

Crude Oil -  Crude oil is holding up at $72.15 Sunday evening. 

Dollar Index – The USD is holding at 102.5 Sunday evening and looks to go higher on Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 12/19 turn day.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 14, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX started a correction today that could run into Friday/Monday. We have a 3-star critical reversal turn date on 12/15-12/18 and that could be a high or a low. Chairman Powell's dovish demeanor on Fed Day is really encouraging the bulls and the market breadth continues to broaden out. We are short-term bearish on the SPX into Friday/Monday but the 10-yr US rate does not seem to want to reverse higher and that is needed here for a sharp correction. The VIX is working on some kind of corrective bounce here and the VIX being positively correlated to the SPX argues for more short-term corrective action in the SPX going into Friday/Monday. We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We still have shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA - we're hanging on to these short shares for potential selling into December/January. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

12/14/23 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX finished an EW a-b-c correction from the 12/1 close into the 12/6  low at 4547, and may have peaked the final leg higher into the 12/8-12/13 turn window which included the 12/11-12/13 New Moon Timing Window. We view the short-term SPX pattern here as bearish going into early Friday but the 12/15-12/18 3-start critical reversal day could come in as a high or low. A rebound in the US 10-yr rate on Thursday could cap the SPX near the SPX 4700 area but the trend continues down for the TNX and we tested 38.85 today. We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA bearish shares on a retest of SPX 4300 in December/January. Crude oil is rebounding to the $72.10 area on Thursday evening from the $67.71 low early Wednesday and the rally in the XLE looks strong.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The declining 10-yr US rate undercut 4.00% on Thursday and we tested 3.88% -  the trend remains down. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold's correction may have ended after Chairman Powell dovish comments on the Fed funds rate. Chairman Powell may also be reluctant to raise rates any more in an election year and may feel political pressure to lower them in Q1 2024.

Stocks –  The SPX may have given us a short-term high at the open on Thursday and we may have started a correction into Friday/Monday.

Gold – Gold gave us a thrust below $2000 and tested $1987 early Wednesday. Gold may have ended its correction after Chairman Powell's dovish comments on Fed Day. 

Silver – Silver may have bottomed at $22.78 Wednesday morning - we may see another leg higher into Friday/Monday.

Bonds – Bonds rallied to test 123'30t 122'22 Thursday evening.

Crude Oil -  Crude oil declined to $67.71 early Wednesday and is rallying to test $72.10 Thursday evening. The XLE reversed higher Thursday in a bullish manner.

Dollar Index – The USD fell to 101.72 Thursday and its trend remains down.

 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 12/11 and 12/13.