All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - October 31, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX rallied on Tuesday but the shape of the rally from Friday looks corrective. The length of the rally in time has gone about the maximum allowed for for in our bearish EW 1-2, i-ii count for the SPX and we need to see a big down day on Fed Wednesday to maintain this interpretation. The SPX rallied into Fed Wednesday in a corrective-looking pattern and this looks bearish to us. The bounce from Friday could be a Wave 2 of 3 of 3 of C if we are doing the bearish 1-2, i-ii count down from 9/1, but if the SPX rallies past Fed Wednesday, we need to consider a more bullish wave count. The market is hoping for the "no more rate hike" message from Chairman Powell on Wednesday, but Fed Day on Wednesday should reconfirm the "higher for longer" rate scenario and the NFP jobs report on Friday could also be a market mover. We do have mini-crash potential for sometime this week, but we need to see an impulsive leg down below SPX 4100 for confirmation. The time spiral that is causing the damage here originates from the 9/11/01 panic down day, but the stock market was actually shut down from 9/11-9/21 so that actually gives us some uncertainty in the crash pattern time pattern this week. The SPX is oversold by many measures,  but a relief rally should not last past Tuesday if the bearish wave count is in force.  We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We've added shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA on rallies for quick trades. If we get a mini-crash after Fed Wednesday, selling these shares would be optimal. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups and accumulate SQQQ and SPXS on market rallies. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

10/31/23 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX continued its rally on Tuesday but the pattern from Friday looks corrective. The QRA report Monday, the Fed speak on Wednesday, and the NFP jobs report on Friday could all be a catalyst for a strong move down in the SPX.  We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA shares on a test of SPX 4000. If we don't get an impulsive leg down below SPX 4100 this week, then our bearish short-term count is wrong. The time spiral from 9/11/2001 is currently pressuring the SPX down but the timing of the next move down could run from Wednesday-Friday. We are looking for an important SPX low around 11/17. Gold is pulling back to $1987 Tuesday evening as the Israeli invasion of Gaza is so far proceeding without additional geo-political damage. The arrival of several US military transports last weekend in israel argued that the Israeli attack would start sometime this week.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should stretch the SPX and NDX decline into November/December. The SPX should not rally past Tuesday if our bearish count is correct, but the war news from Gaza could drive the market action and extreme volatility down is a possibility after the Fed speak on Wednesday. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold closed above $2000 Friday but is declining to $1987 Tuesday evening. The weekly close above the downtrend line is bullish for gold. We could see a major breakout for gold by mid-November.

Stocks –  The SPX continued its rally from Friday, but the EW pattern looks corrective. The SPX should not rally past Tuesday if our bearish count is correct. We need to see an impulsive leg below SPX 4100 start on Fed Wednesday to confirm bearish EW count this week.

Gold – Gold closed above its downtrend line on Friday and that is bullish. Gold is declining to $1987 Tuesday evening. The Israeli-Hamas war could be the catalyst that drives gold to an ATH.  We have stink bids in for some of our favorite junior gold/silver miners which may make multi-year lows 

Silver – Silver is testing its S1-support pivot at $22.56 Tuesday evening.

Bonds – Bonds tested its S1-support pivot at 108'15 Tuesday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil may have given us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart to $80.74 Tuesday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding above its Person's Pivot at 106.72 Tuesday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week is 10/30-10/31, and 11/3.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - October 30, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX rebounded on Monday. Traders loaded up on short hedges on Friday(SPY puts, gold and VIX calls) and then unloaded those positions on Monday giving us a short-covering rally. Also, according to monthly Fed meeting seasonality, the SPX typically rallies on Monday before it declines into the Fed minutes release on Wednesday. We interpret the EW corrective price action on 10/23-10/24 as a Wave 2 of 3 of C down which has turned hard down into a Wave 3 of 3 of C which could do some damage in the coming two weeks. The bounce from Friday could be a Wave 2 of 3 of 3 of C if we are doing the bearish 1-2, i-ii count down from 9/1, but if the SPX rallies past Fed Wednesday, we need to consider a more bullish wave count. The market is hoping for the "no more rate hike" message from Chairman Powell on Wednesday, but Fed Day on Wednesday should reconfirm the "higher for longer" rate scenario and the NFP jobs report on Friday could also be a market mover.  However,  we do have a mini-crash risk for sometime this week - we need to see an impulsive leg down below SPX 4100 for confirmation. The time spiral that is causing the damage here originates from the 9/11/01 panic down day, but the stock market was actually shut down from 9/11-9/21 so that actually gives us some uncertainty in the crash pattern this week. The SPX is oversold by many measures,  but a relief rally should not last past Tuesday if the bearish wave count is in force.  We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We've added shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA on rallies for quick trades. If we get a mini-crash after Fed Wednesday, selling these shares would be optimal. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups and accumulate SQQQ and SPXS on market rallies. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

10/30/23 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX got a short-covering rally Monday after traders unloaded their put hedges on Monday. The QRA report Monday, the Fed speak on Wednesday, and the NFP jobs report on Friday could all be a catalyst for a strong move down in the SPX.  We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA shares on a test of SPX 4000. If we don't get an impulsive leg down below SPX 4100 this week, then our bearish count is wrong. The time spiral from 9/11/2001 is currently pressuring the SPX down but the timing of the next move down could run from Tuesday-Friday. We are looking for an important SPX low around 11/17. Gold is pulling back to $2002 Monday evening. The arrival of several US military transports this weekend in israel argue that the Israeli attack could start sometime this week.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should stretch the SPX and NDX decline into November/December. The SPX should not rally past Tuesday if our bearish count is correct, but the war news from Gaza could drive the market action and extreme volatility down is a possibility this week. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold closed above $2000 Friday and is holding at $2002 Monday evening. The weekly close above the downtrend line is bullish for gold. We could see a major breakout for gold by mid-November.

Stocks –  The SPX bounced today in a short-covering rally after traders sold their weekend put hedges acquired Friday. The SPX should not rally past Tuesday if our bearish count is correct. We need to see an impulsive leg below SPX 4100 for confirmation of our bearish EW count this week.

Gold – Gold closed above its downtrend line on Friday and that is bullish. Gold is holding at $2002 Monday evening. The Israeli-Hamas war could be the catalyst that drives gold to an ATH.  We have stink bids in for some of our favorite junior gold/silver miners which may make multi-year lows into November/December.

Silver – Silver is holding at $23.24 Monday evening.

Bonds – Bonds are down to 109'07 Monday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is pulling back to $82.92 Monday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding above its Person's Pivot at 106.32 Monday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week is 10/30-10/31, and 11/3.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - October 29, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX tested 4100 and may see a bounce by Monday, but we view the 1023-10/24 turn window as an important high - a Wave 2 of 3 of Wave C down that could decline to 11/17 and test below SPX 3900. We interpret the EW corrective price action on 10/23-10/24 as a Wave 2 of 3 of C down which has turned hard down into a Wave 3 of 3 of C which could do some damage in the coming two weeks. The stock market was split on Friday with the NDX up but the SPX, DJIA and IWM closing down - does this give us a setup for a hard down on Monday? Perhaps, but we are inclined to sell some SPXS shares early Monday if the SPX opens down and we may see a bounce into Fed Wednesday. We have a QRA(Quarterly Refunding Announcement) on Monday(how much debt the US government plans to borrow in Q1 2024) which could pressure the 10-yr US rate above 5% again. The Fed Day on Wednesday should reconfirm the "higher for longer" rate scenario and the NFP jobs report on Friday could also be a market mover. The earnings from AMZN and INTC did hold up the QQQ on Friday and that may bring a bullish bias into early Monday. However,  we do see a mini-crash risk for sometime next week. The time spiral that is causing the damage here originates from the 9/11/01 panic down day, but the stock market was actually shut down from 9/11-9/21 so that actually gives us some uncertainty in the crash pattern for next week. The SPX is oversold by many measures,  but it did close down again on on Friday, and this could set the market up for a mini-crash sometime this week. We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We've added shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA on rallies for quick trades. If we get a mini-crash in the coming week, selling these shares would be optimal. Crude oil is holding up at $84.58 Sunday evening and gold is holding at $2014. Earnings from AMZN and INTC did help the QQQ close positive on Friday. We are still intermediate-term bearish on the SPX  and looking for a possible mini-crash in the coming week.  We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups and accumulate SQQQ and SPXS on market rallies. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

10/29/23 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX is tracing out a possible mini-crash for next week - the QRA report Monday, the Fed speak on Wednesday, and the NFP jobs report on Friday could all be a catalyst for a strong move down in the SPX.  We're looking to sell our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA shares on a test of SPX 4000. The time spiral from 9/11/2001 is currently pressuring the SPX down but the timing of the next move down could run from Monday-Friday. We are looking for an important SPX low around 11/17. Gold is holding up at $2014 Sunday evening waiting on news from the Middle East. The arrival of several US military transports this weekend in israel argue that the Israeli attack could start sometime this week.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should stretch the SPX and NDX decline into November/December. The SPX could be primed to start another rally phase this week if we see a mini-crash, but the war news from Gaza could drive the market action and extreme volatility down is a possibility this week. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold closed above $2000 Friday and is holding at $2014 Sunday evening. The weekly close above the downtrend line is bullish for gold. We could see a major breakout for gold by mid-November.

Stocks –  The SPX tested 4100 Friday and the NDX managed to close positive. There is solid support around SPX 4000 if there is extreme volatility down.

Gold – Gold closed above its downtrend line on Friday and that is bullish. Gold is holding at $2014 Sunday evening. The Israeli-Hamas war could be the catalyst that drives gold to an ATH.  We have stink bids in for some of our favorite junior gold/silver miners which may make multi-year lows into November/December.

Silver – Silver is up Sunday evening to $23.26.

Bonds – Bonds are down to 109'08 Sunday evening ahead of the QRA report on Monday. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil is holding up around $84.61 Sunday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding at 106.58 Sunday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week is 10/30-10/31, and 11/3.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - October 26, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: After the corrective high on Tuesday, the Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turning point day, the SPX has declined in two solid down days with increasing volume and the breaking of horizontal support. We interpret the EW corrective price action on Monday/Tuesday as a Wave 2 of 3 of C down which has turned down into a Wave 3 of 3 of C which could do some damage in the next few days. If Friday also closes down, that will give us a mini-crash warning for Monday with more possible selling on Tuesday. The time spiral that is causing the damage here originates from the 9/11 panic down day. The stock market was actually shut down from 9/11-9/21 so that actually gives us some uncertainty in the crash pattern for next week. For this week, the SPX closed below the 200--dma on Monday, closed above it on Tuesday, and then solidly closed below it on Wednesday and Thursday. The SPX is oversold by many measures but if it closed down hard again on Friday, it will set the market up for a mini-crash on Monday. We've tried to keep a high percentage of cash in our portfolio this year and have just taken on short-term trades with our cash position. We've added shares of SPXS, SQQQ and TZA for quick trades. If we get a mini-crash on Friday/Monday, selling these shares would be optimal. Crude oil and other commodities could sell off, but gold may give us a pop above $2000 again. We could see a rebound rally start by Tuesday (a Wave 4 of 3 of C), so selling our triple-short shares could be optimal on Monday. Earnings from the Magnetic Seven stocks failed to give the market a lasting lift this week (except for MSFT), and this was another bearish fact in a lack-luster earnings season. We are still intermediate-term bearish and looking for a possible mini-crash by Monday.  We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups and accumulate SQQQ and SPXS on market rallies. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

10/26/23 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX is tracing out for a possible mini-crash into Monday - closing down hard on Friday would increase the possibility.  Selling our SPXS, SQQQ, and TZA shares by Monday would be optimal on extreme volatility. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should stretch the SPX and NDX decline into November/December. The SPX could be primed to start another rally phase by 10/30-10/31 if we see a mini-crash, but the war news from Gaza could drive the market action and extreme volatility down is a possibility next week. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold could pop above $2000 Friday/Monday if we see a mini-crash. 

Stocks –  The SPX tested SPX 4128 on Thursday before rebounding in a corrective rally that may have peaked late Tuesday. There is solid support between SPX 3900-4000 if there is extreme volatility down.

Gold – Gold could briefly  pop over $2000 again into Monday on extreme stock market volatility. The Israeli-Hamas war could be the catalyst that drives gold to an ATH.  We have stink bids in for some of our favorite junior gold/silver miners which may make multi-year lows into November/December.

Silver – Silver continues to underperform gold into Thursday evening.

Bonds – Bonds are bouncing to 113'11 Thursday evening and could see a flight to quality.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is bouncing to $84.61 Thursday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 106.89 Thursday before correcting.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for next week is 10/30-10/31.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - October 25, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turn window in our work and the SPX rallied into it in a corrective wave pattern from early Monday. The stock market is at a major inflection point. The SPX tested our short-term target of 4188 and then rallied correctively into Tuesday - we are now looking for a reversal down to undercut 4189 on Wednesday.  On the earnings response to MSFT and GOOG after the close, MSFT rallied good but GOOG sold off hard on a weaker than expected cloud number. The rebound rally looks corrective and should make a lower low by Wednesday. How the earnings from MSFT and GOOGL are received by the stock market early Wednesday will determine the short-term trend this week. We our trying to hedge both possibilities by holding a large cash position and by holding SPXS and SQQQ shares to 1.5% of our portfolio. We also have long positions in important resource discoveries that are critical to the US transition to an EV dominated economy. The 10-yr US rate is still correcting from Friday but the SPX continued to be pressured down on comments from Chairman Powell of being higher for longer on US Fed funds rate. We added back our SPXS shares early Thursday but sold them early Monday - cash is still our most strategic position. The stock market is watching the Israeli actions against Gaza and is waiting for its land war to begin. We are still intermediate-term bearish but keeping our options open in the short term for a strong rebound rally. The Israeli-Hamas war could evolve badly for the US and its stock market here and Chairman Powell's bearish tone on 10/19 keep US long rates near their recent highs.  Overall, our view is intermediate bearish on the SPX and we favor the bigger downside probability after the relief rally from early Monday may have topped into Tuesday's close. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups and accumulate SQQQ and SPXS on market rallies. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

10/25/23 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX tested our SPX 4188 and started a bounce that looks corrective. The 10-yr US rate tested 5.0% early in Monday's session before pulling back and continuing its correction. We looked for a tradable SPX rally to start on Monday/Tuesday. However, we saw a monthly expiration on Friday and a Gann day in the 10/19-10/20 time window and that could still bring extreme volatility early this week. We still believe that the late July highs in the NDX and SPX are important highs and that the Fall lows may be extended down into November/December by higher US long rates. The Magnificent Seven stocks are favored by the market because they generate large cash surpluses and are not affected by rising borrowing costs, however, we believe these stocks will have their selloffs into November/December as the global economy cools - over 50% of their revenue comes from international sources. The Magnificent Seven Charts all had negative charts on Friday and the 52-wk New Lows indicator was testing lows - we may be close to an inflection point in the market early in the week. We have limited short positions to 1.5% of our portfolio and maintain as much cash as possible for an important SPX low in November/December. The last three years in gold resembles the basing in the SPX from 1980-1982 before the big lift off in August 1982. Gold found support on 10/6 at $1823.5 and started a rally that spiked higher to $2009 on Friday - the $1810 level is now major support for us and should be bought on retests but it is possible that war news from Gaza could take us higher now. We're planning to remain in mostly cash and wait for extreme bargains to appear in our favorite sectors(such as junior gold/silver and uranium miners) into November/December. We believe that investors are too dovish on US rates going into Q4 and stocks are vulnerable to more interest rate shocks - the PPI report on 9/14, and the CPI on 9/13 argues that the second wave of inflation is starting and the PCE inflation report early 8/31 validated this. Chairman Powell sounded hawkish on 9/20 and his  "higher for longer" message may have finally got through to many traders who were expecting an easing of interest rate policy in early 2024.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should stretch the SPX and NDX decline into November/December. The SPX could be primed to start another rally phase by 10/23-19/24, but the war news from Gaza should drive the market action and extreme volatility down is a possibility early this week. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold tested $2009 on Friday but the COT report off of Tuesday's Comex gold positioning came in bearish - more Commercial shorting and Large Trader buying. The Israeli-Hamas war could be the catalyst that gold needs to break out to an ATH. 

Stocks –  The SPX tested SPX 4188 on Monday before rebounding in a corrective rally that may have peaked late Tuesday. We are looking for a move down in the SPX and NDX on Wednesday.

Gold – Gold tested $1823 after the NFP report on 10/6 and started a rally that spiked to $2009 on Friday before its reversal down to $1982 on Monday. The Israeli-Hamas war could be the catalyst that drives gold to an ATH.  We have stink bids in for some of our favorite junior gold/silver miners which may make multi-year lows into November/December.

Silver – Silver pulled back to $23.07 Tuesday evening.

Bonds – Bonds are bouncing to 110'11 Tuesday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil continued to correct into $83.35 Tuesday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD is rallying to 106.20 Tuesday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 10/23-10/24.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - October 24, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turn window in our work and the SPX rallied into it in a corrective wave pattern from early Monday. The stock market is at a major inflection point. The SPX tested our short-term target of 4188 and then rallied correctively into Tuesday - we are now looking for a reversal down to undercut 4189 on Wednesday.  On the earnings response to MSFT and GOOG after the close, MSFT rallied good but GOOG sold off hard on a weaker than expected cloud number. The rebound rally looks corrective and should make a lower low by Wednesday. How the earnings from MSFT and GOOGL are received by the stock market early Wednesday will determine the short-term trend this week. We our trying to hedge both possibilities by holding a large cash position and by holding SPXS and SQQQ shares to 1.5% of our portfolio. We also have long positions in important resource discoveries that are critical to the US transition to an EV dominated economy. The 10-yr US rate is still correcting from Friday but the SPX continued to be pressured down on comments from Chairman Powell of being higher for longer on US Fed funds rate. We added back our SPXS shares early Thursday but sold them early Monday - cash is still our most strategic position. The stock market is watching the Israeli actions against Gaza and is waiting for its land war to begin. We are still intermediate-term bearish but keeping our options open in the short term for a strong rebound rally. The Israeli-Hamas war could evolve badly for the US and its stock market here and Chairman Powell's bearish tone on 10/19 keep US long rates near their recent highs.  Overall, our view is intermediate bearish on the SPX and we favor the bigger downside probability after the relief rally from early Monday may have topped into Tuesday's close. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups and accumulate SQQQ and SPXS on market rallies. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

10/24/23 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX tested our SPX 4188 and started a bounce that looks corrective. The 10-yr US rate tested 5.0% early in Monday's session before pulling back and continuing its correction. We looked for a tradable SPX rally to start on Monday/Tuesday. However, we saw a monthly expiration on Friday and a Gann day in the 10/19-10/20 time window and that could still bring extreme volatility early this week. We still believe that the late July highs in the NDX and SPX are important highs and that the Fall lows may be extended down into November/December by higher US long rates. The Magnificent Seven stocks are favored by the market because they generate large cash surpluses and are not affected by rising borrowing costs, however, we believe these stocks will have their selloffs into November/December as the global economy cools - over 50% of their revenue comes from international sources. The Magnificent Seven Charts all had negative charts on Friday and the 52-wk New Lows indicator was testing lows - we may be close to an inflection point in the market early in the week. We have limited short positions to 1.5% of our portfolio and maintain as much cash as possible for an important SPX low in November/December. The last three years in gold resembles the basing in the SPX from 1980-1982 before the big lift off in August 1982. Gold found support on 10/6 at $1823.5 and started a rally that spiked higher to $2009 on Friday - the $1810 level is now major support for us and should be bought on retests but it is possible that war news from Gaza could take us higher now. We're planning to remain in mostly cash and wait for extreme bargains to appear in our favorite sectors(such as junior gold/silver and uranium miners) into November/December. We believe that investors are too dovish on US rates going into Q4 and stocks are vulnerable to more interest rate shocks - the PPI report on 9/14, and the CPI on 9/13 argues that the second wave of inflation is starting and the PCE inflation report early 8/31 validated this. Chairman Powell sounded hawkish on 9/20 and his  "higher for longer" message may have finally got through to many traders who were expecting an easing of interest rate policy in early 2024.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should stretch the SPX and NDX decline into November/December. The SPX could be primed to start another rally phase by 10/23-19/24, but the war news from Gaza should drive the market action and extreme volatility down is a possibility early this week. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold tested $2009 on Friday but the COT report off of Tuesday's Comex gold positioning came in bearish - more Commercial shorting and Large Trader buying. The Israeli-Hamas war could be the catalyst that gold needs to break out to an ATH. 

Stocks –  The SPX tested SPX 4188 on Monday before rebounding in a corrective rally that may have peaked late Tuesday. We are looking for a move down in the SPX and NDX on Wednesday.

Gold – Gold tested $1823 after the NFP report on 10/6 and started a rally that spiked to $2009 on Friday before its reversal down to $1982 on Monday. The Israeli-Hamas war could be the catalyst that drives gold to an ATH.  We have stink bids in for some of our favorite junior gold/silver miners which may make multi-year lows into November/December.

Silver – Silver pulled back to $23.07 Tuesday evening.

Bonds – Bonds are bouncing to 110'11 Tuesday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil continued to correct into $83.35 Tuesday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD is rallying to 106.20 Tuesday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 10/23-10/24.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - October 23, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX opened down today and then tested SPX 4188 before bouncing. The rebound rally looked corrective and could make a lower low by Wednesday. The Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turn day in our work. if the SPX holds up into Tuesday, we will look for a hard down on Wednesday after MSFT and GOOGL report earnings. Our Gann day time window, 10/19-10/20 - argues that we are close to a tradeable low or an accelerated downside.  How the earnings from MSFT and GOOGL are received by the stock market will determine the short-term trend this week. We our trying to hedge both possibilities by holding a large cash position and by holding SPXS and SQQQ shares to 1.5% of our portfolio. We also have long positions in important resource discoveries that are critical to the US transition to an EV dominated economy. We have held our SPXS short position over the weekend as tensions in the Middle East threaten to draw in more US involvement at a time where the US is already financially overextended and running a double-digit budget deficit which is being aggravated by rising global long rates. The 10-yr US rate corrected on Friday but the SPX continued to be pressured down on comments from Chairman Powell of being higher for longer on US Fed funds rate. We added back our SPXS shares early Thursday but will sell them them on Monday/Tuesday on further SPX weakness - cash is still our most strategic position. The stock market is watching the Israeli actions against Gaza and is waiting for its land war to begin. We are still intermediate-term bearish but keeping our options open in the short term for a strong rebound rally. The Israeli-Hamas war could evolve badly for the US and its stock market here and Chairman Powell's bearish tone on 10/19 keep US long rates near their recent highs.  Overall, our view is intermediate bearish on the SPX and we favor the bigger downside probability after another relief rally starts around 10/23-10/24. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups and accumulate SQQQ and SPXS on market rallies. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

10/23/23 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX tested our SPX 4188 and started a bounce that looks corrective. The 10-yr US rate tested 5.0% early in Monday's session before pulling back. We looked for a tradable SPX rally to start on Monday/Tuesday. However, we saw a monthly expiration on Friday and a Gann day in the 10/19-10/20 time window and that could still bring extreme volatility early this week. We still believe that the late July highs in the NDX and SPX are important highs and that the Fall lows may be extended down into November/December by higher US long rates. The Magnificent Seven stocks are favored by the market because they generate large cash surpluses and are not affected by rising borrowing costs, however, we believe these stocks will have their selloffs into November/December as the global economy cools - over 50% of their revenue comes from international sources. The Magnificent Seven Charts all had negative charts on Friday and the 52-wk New Lows indicator was testing lows - we may be close to an inflection point in the market early in the week. We have limited short positions to 1.5% of our portfolio and maintain as much cash as possible for an important SPX low in November/December. The last three years in gold resembles the basing in the SPX from 1980-1982 before the big lift off in August 1982. Gold found support on 10/6 at $1823.5 and started a rally that spiked higher to $2009 on Friday - the $1810 level is now major support for us and should be bought on retests but it is possible that war news from Gaza could take us higher now. We're planning to remain in mostly cash and wait for extreme bargains to appear in our favorite sectors(such as junior gold/silver and uranium miners) into November/December. We believe that investors are too dovish on US rates going into Q4 and stocks are vulnerable to more interest rate shocks - the PPI report on 9/14, and the CPI on 9/13 argues that the second wave of inflation is starting and the PCE inflation report early 8/31 validated this. Chairman Powell sounded hawkish on 9/20 and his  "higher for longer" message may have finally got through to many traders who were expecting an easing of interest rate policy in early 2024.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should stretch the SPX and NDX decline into November/December. The SPX could be primed to start another rally phase by 10/23-19/24, but the war news from Gaza should drive the market action and extreme volatility down is a possibility early this week. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold tested $2009 on Friday but the COT report off of Tuesday's Comex gold positioning came in bearish - more Commercial shorting and Large Trader buying. The Israeli-Hamas war could be the catalyst that gold needs to break out to an ATH. 

Stocks –  The SPX tested SPX 4188 on Monday before rebounding in a corrective rally. We have important earnings from MSFT and GOOG on Tuesday's close. The SPX could give us another leg up in its corrective bounce on Tuesday.

Gold – Gold tested $1823 after the NFP report on 10/6 and started a rally that spiked to $2009 on Friday before its reversal down to $1982 on Monday. The Israeli-Hamas war could be the catalyst that drives gold to an ATH.  We have stink bids in for some of our favorite junior gold/silver miners which may make multi-year lows into November/December.

Silver – Silver is bouncing to test $23.35 Sunday night on weaker bonds.

Bonds – Bonds bounced on Monday and are testing 109'30 overnight.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $85.35 on Monday and is bouncing overnight.

Dollar Index – The USD fell to 105.43  Monday evening and may be breaking down.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 10/23-10/24.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - October 22, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX turned down again with minimal rally attempts on Friday in our Gann day time window, 10/19-10/20 - are we close to a tradeable low or an accelerated downside. We our trying to hedge both possibilities by holding a large cash position and by holding SPXS and SQQQ shares to 1.5% of our portfolio. We also have long positions in important resource discoveries that are critical to the US transition to an EV dominated economy. We have held our SPXS short position over the weekend as tensions in the Middle East threaten to draw in more US involvement at a time where the US is financially already overextended and running double-digit financial deficits which are being aggravated by rising global long rates. The 10-yr US rate corrected on Friday but the SPX continued to be pressured down on comments from Chairman Powell of being higher for longer on US Fed funds rate. We added back our SPXS shares early Thursday but will sell them them on Monday/Tuesday on further SPX weakness - cash is still our most strategic position. The stock market is watching the Israeli actions against Gaza and is waiting for its land war to begin. The SPX bears are looking for a retest of 4216 this coming Monday - going below SPX 4216 would argue that we are in a Wave 5 of C down. The bulls view that we are in a wave 2 pullback of a rally that started on 10/4 is under pressure here. We are still intermediate-term bearish but keeping our options open in the short term for a strong rebound rally. The Israeli-Hamas war could evolve badly for the US and its stock market here and Chairman Powell's bearish tone on 10/19 keep US long rates near their recent highs. The most bullish index is the NDX which is still holding above its 9/27 low but has closed below its 200-dma the past three days - many dip buyers are buying into the Magnificent Seven tech stocks on pullbacks but since these stocks get over 50% of there earnings from international, their profitability for Q3 may fall short of expectations with a strong USD. Overall, our view is intermediate bearish on the SPX and we favor the bigger downside probability after another relief rally starts around 10/23-10/24. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups and accumulate SQQQ and SPXS on market rallies. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

10/22/23 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX subdivided down on Friday bearishly as the 10-yr US rate corrected sideways. The 10-yr US rate made new highs at 4.988% near Thursday's close and corrected sideways on Friday. However, news from the Middle East could pressure stocks down overnight and give us a down open on Monday. We had a hot PPI report on 10/11, a hot CPI report on 10/12, and long rates want to move higher - that is a problem for stocks. Bulls are hoping that we are in a wave 2 down that could bottom above SPX 4216 Monday/Tuesday - we could see a tradable SPX rally start on Monday/Tuesday. However, we saw a monthly expiration on Friday and a Gann day in the 10/19-10/20 time window and that could still bring extreme volatility down on Monday. We still believe that the late July highs in the NDX and SPX are important highs and that the Fall lows may be extended down into November/December by higher US long rates. Dip buyers continue to buy tech stocks on pullbacks and haven't panicked yet about rising rates - this has kept the NDX above its 9/27 low so far, but the charts of the Magnificent 7 looked bearish on Friday(AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, META, GOOG, NVDA, AMZN) and the QQQ could go lower early Monday before some Big Tech stocks report earnings this week. The Magnificent Seven stocks are favored by the market because they generate large cash surpluses and are not affected by rising borrowing costs, however, we believe these stocks will have their selloffs into November/December as the global economy cools - over 50% of their revenue comes from international sources. The Magnificent Seven Charts all had negative charts on Friday and the 52-wk New Lows indicator was testing lows - we may be close to an inflection point in the market early in the week. We have limited short positions to 1.5% of our portfolio and maintain as much cash as possible for an important SPX low in November/December. The last three years in gold resembles the basing in the SPX from 1980-1982 before the big lift off in August 1982. Gold found support on 10/6 at $1823.5 and started a rally that spiked higher to $2009 on Friday - the $1810 level is now major support for us and should be bought on retests but it is possible that war news from Gaza could take us higher now. We're planning to remain in mostly cash and wait for extreme bargains to appear in our favorite sectors(such as junior gold/silver and uranium miners) into November/December. We believe that investors are too dovish on US rates going into Q4 and stocks are vulnerable to more interest rate shocks - the PPI report on 9/14, and the CPI on 9/13 argues that the second wave of inflation is starting and the PCE inflation report early 8/31 validated this. Chairman Powell sounded hawkish on 9/20 and his  "higher for longer" message may have finally got through to many traders who were expecting an easing of interest rate policy in early 2024.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should stretch the SPX and NDX decline into November/December. The SPX could be primed to start another rally phase by 10/23-19/24, but the war news from Gaza should drive the market action and extreme volatility down is a possibility early this week. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold tested $2009 on Friday but the COT report off of Tuesday's Comex gold positioning came in bearish - more Commercial shorting and Large Trader buying. The Israeli-Hamas war could be the catalyst that gold needs to break out to an ATH. 

Stocks –  The SPX continued to sub-divide down on Friday as all the charts of the Magnificent Seven looked negative. We have important earnings from MSFT and GOOG on Tuesday's close. The SPX needs to hold above 4216 early Monday and reverse up impulsively to show bullishness.

Gold – Gold tested $1823 after the NFP report on 10/6 and started a rally that spiked to $2009 on Thursday. The Israeli-Hamas war could be the catalyst that drives gold to an ATH.  We have stink bids in for some of our favorite junior gold/silver miners which may make multi-year lows into November/December.

Silver – Silver stepped in late Friday and we are testing $23.35 Sunday night on weaker bonds.

Bonds – Bonds are testing 108'02 Sunday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $87.80 Sunday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 106.38 Sunday evening and is looking weak.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 10/23-10/24.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - October 19, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: After a brief rally at the open, the SPX subdivided down impulsively into the close. Since we have a Gann day on 10/19-10/20, we could see some extreme volatility down on Friday. The 10-yr US rate continued to make higher highs to 4.988% and this pressured the SPX and NDX down into the close. We sold our SPXS and SQQQ shares Wednesday but there is a chance for lower lows into Friday. The stock market is watching the Israeli actions against Gaza and is waiting for its land war to begin. The SPX bears are looking for a retest of 4216 this week which could be a 5th wave down and the bulls believe that we are seeing a wave 2 corrective pullback to 4269 before the start of a major rally into year end - taking out SPX 4216 would validate that we are in a Wave 5 of C down. We are still intermediate-term bearish but keeping our options open in the short term. The SPX did finish 5-waves up into Tuesday and it started a pullback that could be just an EW a-b-c pullback that bottoms above SPX 4216. The Israeli-Hamas war could evolve badly for the US and its stock market here and Chairman Powell's bearish tone today kept US long rates rising into the close. The most bullish index is the NDX which is still holding above its 9/27 low but has closed below its 200-dma the past two days - many dip buyers are buying into the Magnificent Seven tech stocks on pullbacks but since these stocks get over 50% of there earnings from international, their profitability for Q3 may fall short of expectations with a strong USD. Overall, our view is intermediate bearish and we favor the bigger downside probability after another rally starts around 10/20. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups and accumulate SQQQ and SPXS on market rallies. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

10/19/23 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX opened higher today but quickly subdivided down into the close. Chairman Powell's hawkish tone turned the 10-yr US rate higher into the close. The 10-yr US rate made new highs at 4.988% near close and continued to pressure stocks down. We had a hot PPI report on 10/11, a hot CPI report on 10/12, and long rates want to move higher. Since our bias is that we may be in a wave 2 down that could bottom above SPX 4216 by 10/20, we could see a tradable SPX rally start on Friday, but we are in a Gann day on 10/19-10/20 and that could bring extreme volatility down. We still believe that the late July highs in the NDX and SPX are important highs and the Fall lows may be extended down into November/December by higher US long rates. Dip buyers continue to buy tech stocks on pullbacks and haven't panicked yet about rising rates - this has kept the NDX above its 9/27 low so far, but the QQQ tested 360 on Thursday and could go lower early Friday. The Magnificent Seven stocks are favored by the market because they generate large cash surpluses and are not affected by rising borrowing costs, however, we believe these stocks will have their selloffs into November/December as the global economy cools - over 50% of their revenue comes from international sources. Earnings from TSLA disappointed and that helped give stocks a big down day on Thursday. We have limited short positions to 1.5% of our portfolio and maintain as much cash as possible for an important SPX low in November/December. The last three years in gold resembles the basing in the SPX from 1980-1982 before the big lift off in August 1982. Gold found support on 10/6 at $1823.5 and started a rally that spike higher to $1990 Thursday - the $1800 level is now major support for us and should be bought on retests but it is possible that war news from Gaza could take us higher now. We're planning to remain in mostly cash and wait for extreme bargains to appear in our favorite sectors(such as junior gold/silver and uranium miners) into November/December. We believe that investors are too dovish on US rates going into Q4 and stocks are vulnerable to more interest rate shocks - the PPI report on 9/14, and the CPI on 9/13 argues that the second wave of inflation is starting and the PCE inflation report early 8/31 validated this. Chairman Powell sounded hawkish on 9/20 and his  "higher for longer" message may have finally got through to many traders who were expecting an easing of interest rate policy in early 2024.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should stretch the SPX and NDX decline into November/December. The SPX could be primed to start another rally phase by 10/20 but the war news from Gaza should drive the market action and extreme volatility down is a possibility early Friday. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold tested $1823 after the NFP jobs report on 10/6 and started a rally that accelerated on Friday to test $1990 on Thursday. The Israeli-Hamas war could be the catalyst that gold needs to break out to an ATH. 

Stocks –  The SPX opened higher but then sub-divided down into the close impulsively. TSLA's disappointing earnings gave us a gap-down open on Thursday but holding above SPX 4216 into Friday could give us a reversal up.  The SPX needs to hold above 4216 early Friday and reverse up impulsively to show bullishness.

Gold – Gold tested $1823 after the NFP report on 10/6 and started a rally that spiked to $1990 on Thursday. The Israeli-Hamas war could be the catalyst that drives gold to an ATH.  We have stink bids in for some of our favorite junior gold/silver miners which may make multi-year lows into November/December.

Silver – Silver is testing $23.05 Thursday night and is holding up well against the stronger USD.

Bonds – Bonds tested 107'20 Thursday evening before bouncing.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is spiking to $89.6 Thursday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD is bouncing to 106.38 Thursday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 10/16-10/17 and 10/20.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - October 18, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX opened down and continued down into the close. For the QQQ, TSLA was down before the close and post-earnings continued to decline after hours. The 10-yr US rate hit the high of 4.928% and this pressured the SPX and NDX down into the close despite a decent 20-yr US bond auction. Once again, the day after a weekly VIX expiration gave us a big down day in the SPX.  We sold our SPXS and SQQQ shares today but there is a chance for lower lows into Friday. The stock market is watching the Israeli actions against Gaza and is waiting for its land war to begin. The SPX bears are looking for a retest of 4216 this week which could be a 5th wave down and the bulls believe that this is the start of a major rally into year end - taking out SPX 4216 would validate that we are in a Wave 5 of C down. We are still intermediate-term bearish but keeping our options open in the short term. The SPX did finish 5-waves up on Tuesday and we started a pullback that could be just an EW a-b-c pullback that bottoms above SPX 4216. The surprise Hamas missile attack on 10/7 opened a spectrum of geo-political risks that could evolve badly for the US and its stock market here. The most bullish index is the NDX which is still holding above its 9/27 low and 200-dma - many dip buyers are buying into the Magnificent Seven tech stocks on dips but since these stocks get over 50% of there earnings from international, their profitability for Q3 may fall short of expectations with a strong USD. Overall, our view is bearish and we favor the bigger downside probability after another rally starts around 10/20. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups and accumulate SQQQ and SPXS on market rallies. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

10/18/23 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX opened with a small gap down but continued to make lower lows into the close. The 10-yr US rate made new highs at 4.928% even with a decent 20-yr US bond auction. We had a hot PPI report on 10/11, a hot CPI report on 10/12, and long rates want to move higher. Since our bias is that we may be in a wave 2 down that could test SPX 4216 by 10/20, we could see a tradable SPX rally start on Friday. We still believe that the late July highs in the NDX and SPX are important highs and the Fall lows may be extended down into November/December by higher US long rates. Dip buyers continue to buy tech stocks on dips and haven't panicked yet about rising rates - this has kept the NDX above its 9/27 low and 200-dma so far, but we could see QQQ 360 tested by Friday. The Magnificent Seven stocks are favored by the market because they generate large cash surpluses and are not affected by rising borrowing costs, however, we believe these stocks will have their selloffs into November/December as the global economy cools - over 50% of their revenue comes from international sources. Earnings from TSLA disappointed and that could help give us a down open on Thursday. We have limited short positions to 1.5% of our portfolio and maintain as much cash as possible for an important SPX low in November/December. The last three years in gold resembles the basing in the SPX from 1980-1982 before the big lift off in August 1982. Gold found support on 10/6 at $1823.5 and started a rally that spike higher to $1975 today - the $1800 level is now major support for us and should be bought on retests but it is possible that war news from Gaza could take us higher now. We're planning to remain in mostly cash and wait for extreme bargains to appear in our favorite sectors(such as junior gold/silver and uranium miners) into November/December. We believe that investors are too dovish on US rates going into Q4 and stocks are vulnerable to more interest rate shocks - the PPI report on 9/14, and the CPI on 9/13 argues that the second wave of inflation is starting and the PCE inflation report early 8/31 validated this. Chairman Powell sounded hawkish on 9/20 and his  "higher for longer" message may have finally got through to many traders who were expecting an easing of interest rate policy in early 2024.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should stretch the SPX and NDX decline into November/December. The SPX could be primed to start another rally phase by 10/20 but the war news from Gaza should drive the market action. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold tested $1823 after the NFP jobs report on 10/6 and started a rally that accelerated on Friday to test $1975 today. The Israeli-Hamas war could be the catalyst that gold needs to break out to an ATH. 

Stocks –  The SPX opened and continued down into the close despite a decent 20-yr US bond auction. TSLA's disappointing earnings could give us a gap-down open on Thursday but holding above SPX 4216 into Friday could give us a reversal up.

Gold – Gold tested $1823 after the NFP report on 10/6 and started a rally that spiked to $1975 on Wednesday. The Israeli-Hamas war could be the catalyst that drives gold to an ATH.  We have stink bids in for some of our favorite junior gold/silver miners which may make multi-year lows into November/December.

Silver – Silver is testing $22.97 Wednesday night and is holding up well against the stronger USD.

Bonds – Bonds are down to 108'20 Wednesday evening and the US 10-yr rate is making higher highs.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is hovering around $87 Wednesday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD is bouncing to 106.61 Wednesday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 10/16-10/17 and 10/20.