All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 31, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The Fed's favorite inflation indicator came in a little hotter - YoY 4.3% over 4.2% but the SPX gave us an early rally which took out Wednesday's high. The SPX may have made a weekly high in the 8/30-9/1 in the Full Moon Timing Window but the usual orb allows a high on Friday after the NFP jobs report. The SPX did close down on Thursday as traders positioned themselves for the NFP jobs report. The SPX landed a 3-star critical reversal on 8/28, but the orb could extend to Friday. We saw "euphoric call buying" again early today as the VIX continued its meltdown and the rally from 8/18 appears to be  tracing out a B-Wave. The VIX closed below its lower Bollinger Band for the second day in a row. We may have seen a SPX pattern completion early Thursday but it could extend to early Friday after the NFP jobs report. In our view, inflation forces have finished their corrective decline and are building for their next leg up which will be led by gold, silver, bitcoin, crude oil, natural gas and uranium this fall. If rising rates force a big stock market break this fall, commodities will also be hit but we will favor gold, silver, crude oil and natural gas on dips. The GDX gave us a key-reversal day candle on 8/21 and that lead the PM sector higher into Wednesday. Gold also had a 3-star critical reversal day on 8/28 and may have made a short-term high early Wednesday. Crude oil is rallying to $83.77 Thursday evening. The GDX gave us a key reversal day on 8/21 and rallied to test its 50-dma on Wednesday before declining. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 10% gold and silver stocks, 65% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

8/31/23 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX rallied early Thursday despite the slightly hotter PCE inflation indicator. The USD bounced and pressured the PM sector down. We are counting the SPX rally from 8/18 as a B-wave that is completing in the 8/30-9/1 Full Moon Timing Window. The SPX did make a higher high early Thursday before reversing down into a negative close. Bullish sentiment on Twitter is getting to extreme levels and a reversal down early Thursday, in the orb of the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 7/27 SPX high, seemed likely with Mercury retrograde in full force. The SPX 3-star critical reversal day fell on 8/28 but its orb could expand into Friday as a high. Our indicators continue to trend like late February 2020 with the Option Premium Ratio starting to trend higher after printing multi-year lows - this setup led to an important intermediate high in the SPX on 2/20/20 and a 20% correction into March 23, 2020. The Option Premium Ratio fell rallied to .38 as euphoric call buying dominated most of the early session. The large Spiral Time Cluster indicated a significant market high in the 6/23-6/27+ 1 month timeframe and we believe that the late July highs in the NDX and SPX are following this time cluster down. We have limited short positions to 1.5% of our portfolio and maintain as much cash as possible for an important SPX low in September/October. We have limited short positions to 1.5% of our portfolio and maintain as much cash as possible for an important SPX low in September/October. The last three years in gold resembles the basing in the SPX from 1980-1982 before the big lift off in August 1982. Staying above $1900 will keep gold in a bullish "wave 2" pullback pattern and the GDX rallied in a B-Wave from 8/21 into 8/30 when it tested its 50-dma.  We're planning to remain in mostly cash and wait for extreme bargains to appear in our favorite sectors into September/October. We believe that investors are too dovish on rates going into Q3 and stocks are vulnerable to more interest rate shocks - the PPI report on 8/11 argues that the second wave of inflation may be starting and the PCE inflation report early Thursday validated this - the Fed may hold rates higher for longer and shatter the "soft landing of the economy" that traders are expecting. The USD bounced 0.5% today and pressured the PM sector down.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should magnify the SPX and NDX decline into September/October. We could see a near-term trading high early Thursday in the orb of the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 7/27 SPX high. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold may have seen an important low in the 8/21-8/22 turn window on its test of $1913. The GDX may have traced out a B-Wave high on 8/30.

Stocks – The SPX appears to be tracing out a B-Wave rally from 8/18 into the 8/30-9/1 Full Moon Timing Window and a 3-star critical reversal time window. The NFP jobs report will set the early tone on Friday.

Gold – Gold tested $1977 on Wednesday, near our $1980 target, after rallying through the 8/28 Mars ingress - it made a short-term top in the 8/30-8/31 Full Moon. 

Silver – Silver tested $25.45 on Wednesday and started a correction down to $24.83 Thursday evening. 

Bonds – Bonds rallied are holding up around 121'11 Thursday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil rallied higher to $83.77 in the 8/30-9/1 Full Moon Timing Window .

Dollar Index – The USD bounced back with a 0.5% gain and pressured the PM sector.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week was 8/28-8/29.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 30, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us another rally day on Wednesday as the ADP jobs report came in weaker than expected. On Thursday, we will get the PCE inflation report that the Fed favors - since the Full Moon is exact at 9:35 PM EDT Wednesday evening, the market could still be up early Thursday. We are expecting a reversal down tomorrow as the market weighs the impact of the NFP jobs report on Friday. We got a 3-star critical reversal on 8/28, but the orb could extend to Thursday. We saw "euphoric call buying" again today on the ISEE call/put ratio and the rally from 8/18 may be a triangular B-Wave - we may be close to a pattern completion that could peak on early Thursday. In our view, inflation forces have finished their corrective decline and are building for their next leg up which will be led by gold, silver, bitcoin, crude oil, natural gas and uranium this fall. If rising rates force a big stock market break this fall, commodities will also be hit but we will favor gold, silver, crude oil and natural gas on dips. The GDX gave us a key-reversal day candle on 8/21 and that lead the PM sector higher into Wednesday. Gold also had a 3-star critical reversal day on 8/28 and could be marking a short-term high by early Thursday. Crude oil bounced to $82.05 Wednesday morning and then started a correction. The GDX gave us a key reversal day on 8/21 and rallied to test its 50-dma on Wednesday before pausing - the rally from 8/21 also looks like a B-Wave that could peak early Thursday. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 10% gold and silver stocks, 65% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

8/30/23 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX got a boost from a weak JOLTS number and consumer sentiment. The USD pulled back and the lower US bond yields sparked the Big Tech stocks. The $NYAD showed increasing market breadth as we closed at +1888. We are counting the rally from 8/18 as a B-wave that is triangulating into the Full Moon Timing Window. The SPX needs to push a little higher into tomorrow and then we could see a retracement. Bullish sentiment on Twitter is getting to extreme levels and a reversal down early Thursday, in the orb of the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 7/27 SPX high, seems likely with Mercury retrograde in full force. The SPX 3-star critical reversal day fell on 8/28 but its orb expands into Thursday. Our indicators continue to trend like late February 2020 with the Option Premium Ratio starting to trend higher after printing multi-year lows - this setup led to an important intermediate high in the SPX on 2/20/20 and a 20% correction into March 23, 2020. The Option Premium Ratio fell rallied to .37 as euphoric call buying dominated most of the early session. The large Spiral Time Cluster indicated a significant market high in the 6/23-6/27+ 1 month timeframe and we believe that the late July highs in the NDX and SPX are following this time cluster down. We have limited short positions to 1.5% of our portfolio and maintain as much cash as possible for an important SPX low in September/October. The last three years in gold resembles the basing in the SPX from 1980-1982 before the big lift off in August 1982. Staying above $1900 will keep gold in a bullish "wave 2" pullback pattern and the GDX appears to be rallying in a B-Wave from 8/21 into the 8/29-8/31 Full Moon Timing Window.  We're planning to remain in mostly cash and wait for extreme bargains to appear in our favorite sectors into September/October. We believe that investors are too dovish on rates going into Q3 and stocks are vulnerable to more interest rate shocks - the PPI report on 8/11 argues that the second wave of inflation may be starting and the PCE inflation report early Thursday could validate this. The USD may may have made a weekly reversal pivot last week and the weaker JOLTS number and weaker consumer sentiment number could catalyze more pullback. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should magnify the SPX and NDX decline into September/October. We could see a near-term trading high early Thursday in the orb of the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 7/27 SPX high. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold may have seen an important low in the 8/21-8/22 turn window on its test of $1913. The GDX appears to be tracing out a B-Wave high in the 8/30-8/31 Full Moon.

Stocks – The SPX appears to be tracing out a B-Wave rally from 8/18. A rally into the Full Moon tomorrow and the 34-day Fibonacci step out from 7/27 would give us an EW a-b-c pattern completion from the 8/18 low and setup a pullback.

Gold – Gold tested $1977 on Wednesday, near our $1980 target, after rallying through the 8/28 Mars ingress - it is now making a short-term top in the 8/30-8/31 Full Moon. 

Silver – Silver tested $25.45 on Wednesday and started a correction. 

Bonds – Bonds rallied higher to 121'23 Wednesday and started a sideways correction.

Crude Oil – Crude oil rallied to $82.05 Wednesday and started a sideways correction.

Dollar Index – The USD made a rally high at 104.45 Friday morning and gave us an EW a-b-c correction into Wednesday. The USD was due a weekly reversal top last week.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week was 8/28-8/29.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 29, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us another big rally day as we approach the Full Moon tomorrow. We got a 3-star critical reversal on 8/28, but the orb could extend to Wednesday. We saw "euphoric call buying" today on the ISEE call/put ratio and the rally from Friday's low at SPX 4360 is a C-Wave that is close to completion and could peak on Wednesday. In our view, inflation forces have finished their corrective decline and are building for their next leg up which will be led by gold, silver, bitcoin, crude oil, natural gas and uranium this fall. If rising rates force a big stock market break this fall, commodities will also be hit but we will favor gold, silver, crude oil and natural gas on dips. The GDX gave us a key-reversal day candle on 8/21 and that lead the PM sector higher into Tuesday. Gold also had a 3-star critical reversal day ton 8/28 and could be marking a short-term high week. Crude oil bounced to $81.41 near Tuesday's close - it may be starting a run higher into the 8/30 Full Moon. The GDX gave us a key reversal day on 8/21 and rallied in 5-waves into Tuesday. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 10% gold and silver stocks, 65% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

8/29/23 (Commentary for Tuesday)  The SPX got a boost from a weak JOLTS number and consumer sentiment. The USD pulled back and the lower US bond yields sparked the Big Tech stocks. The $NYAD showed increasing market breadth as we closed at +1888. We are counting the rally from 8/18 as a B-wave that is triangulating into the Full Moon Timing Window. The SPX needs to push a little higher into tomorrow and then we could see a retracement. Bullish sentiment on Twitter is getting to extreme levels and a reversal down early Thursday, in the orb of the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 7/27 SPX high, seems likely with Mercury retrograde in full force. The SPX 3-star critical reversal day fell on 8/28 but its orb expands into Thursday. Our indicators continue to trend like late February 2020 with the Option Premium Ratio starting to trend higher after printing multi-year lows - this setup led to an important intermediate high in the SPX on 2/20/20 and a 20% correction into March 23, 2020. The Option Premium Ratio fell rallied to .37 as euphoric call buying dominated most of the early session. The large Spiral Time Cluster indicated a significant market high in the 6/23-6/27+ 1 month timeframe and we believe that the late July highs in the NDX and SPX are following this time cluster down. We have limited short positions to 1.5% of our portfolio and maintain as much cash as possible for an important SPX low in September/October. The last three years in gold resembles the basing in the SPX from 1980-1982 before the big lift off in August 1982. Staying above $1900 will keep gold in a bullish "wave 2" pullback pattern and the GDX appears to be rallying in a B-Wave from 8/21 into the 8/29-8/31 Full Mon Timing Window.  We're planning to remain in mostly cash and wait for extreme bargains to appear in our favorite sectors into September/October. We believe that investors are too dovish on rates going into Q3 and stocks are vulnerable to more interest rate shocks - the PPI report on 8/11 argues that the second wave of inflation may be starting and the PCE inflation report early Thursday could validate this. The USD may may have made a weekly reversal pivot last week and the weaker JOLTS number and weaker consumer sentiment number could catalyze more pullback. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should magnify the SPX and NDX decline into September/October. We could see a near-term trading high by 8/31 on the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 7/27 SPX high but we could continue lower until Venus turns direct on 9/4.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold may have seen an important low in the 8/21-8/22 turn window on its test of $1913. The 8/28-8/31 time window is important for gold and if it comes in a as a correction low for the GDX this will be very bullish.

Stocks – The SPX blasted through its 50-dma and tested the .618 retracement from the 7/27 SPX high. A rally into the Full Moon tomorrow and the 34-day Fibonacci step out from 7/27 would give us an EW a-b-c pattern completion from the 8/18 low and setup a pullback.

Gold – Gold tested $1966 on Tuesday after rallying through the 8/28 Mars ingress - it is now trending higher into the 8/30 Full Moon. 

Silver – Silver tested $25.20 on Sunday and the silver stocks are leading into the 8/30 Full Moon. 

Bonds – Bonds rallied higher to 121'17 Tuesday and are pulling back to test its Person's Pivot at 120'17 overnight.

Crude Oil – Crude oil rallied to $81.61 Tuesday evening as it trends into the 8/30 Full Moon.

Dollar Index – The USD made a rally high at 104.45 Friday morning and is correcting. The USD was due a weekly reversal top last week.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 8/28-8/29

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 28, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us the first back-to-back rally days in quite awhile. Today, 8/28, is a 3-star critical reversal day for the SPX and we could be close to an important top. The SPX may want to test its 50-dma again at 4460 before reversing down Tuesday, but a daily close above SPX 4460 would be short-term bullish. In our view, inflation forces have finished their corrective decline and are building for their next leg up which will be led by gold, silver, bitcoin, crude oil, natural gas and uranium this fall. If rising rates force a big stock market break this fall, commodities will also be hit but we will favor gold, silver, crude oil and natural gas on dips. The GDX gave us a key-reversal day candle on 8/21 and that lead the PM sector higher into Monday. Gold also had a 3-star critical reversal day today and could be marking a short-term top. Crude oil bounced to $80.69 on Monday - it may be starting a run higher into the 8/30 Full Moon. The GDX gave us a key reversal day on 8/21 and rallied in 5-waves into today. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 10% gold and silver stocks, 65% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

8/28/23 (Commentary for Monday)  The SPX continues to rally despite the hawkish tone from Chairman  Powell at Jackson Hole early Friday. The SPX may want to retest the 50-dma at 4460 before reversing down on Tuesday. Our view remains that the US debt downgrade was a big deal and that Venus retrograde has reversed the SPX and NDX down for an intermediate correction that could post a near-term low by 9/04. The SPX and NDX reversal down on 8/24 after furious AI-tech buying before NVDA earnings seems like a major inflection point to us - it could be an early coming of the 8/28 3-star critical reversal day. Our indicators continue to trend like late February 2020 with the Option Premium Ratio starting to trend higher after printing multi-year lows - this setup led to an important intermediate high in the SPX on 2/20/20 and a 20% correction into March 23, 2020. Venus retrograde kicked in on 7/22 and this is pressuring the stock market down as the US debt downgrade brings the bullish traders back to reality on near-term interest rate risk. The large Spiral Time Cluster indicated a significant market high in the 6/23-6/27+ 1 month timeframe. We have limited short positions to 1.5% of our portfolio and maintain as much cash as possible for an important SPX low into early September. The last three years in gold resembles the basing in the SPX from 1980-1982 before the big lift off in August 1982. Staying above $1900 will keep gold in a bullish "wave 2" pullback pattern and the 8/28-8/31 timing window is a time target for an important low. We're planning to remain in mostly cash and wait for extreme bargains to appear in our favorite sectors into September/October. We believe that investors are too dovish on rates going into Q3 and stocks are vulnerable to more interest rate shocks - the PPI report on 8/11 argues that the second wave of inflation may be starting. The USD may may have made a weekly reversal pivot last week. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should magnify the SPX and NDX decline into early September. We could see a near-term trading high by 8/31 on the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 7/27 SPX high but we could continue lower until Venus turns direct on 9/4.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold may have seen a low in the 8/21-8/22 turn window on its test of $1913. The 8/28-8/31 time window is important for gold and if it comes in a as a correction low for the GDX this will be very bullish.

Stocks – The SPX traced out a minimal 5-waves higher from its Friday low into Monday and may try one more thrust to test its 50-dma at 4460. 

Gold – Gold tested $1954 Monday and then started correcting. The 8/28-8/30 turn window will be crucial for gold - if the GDX makes a corrective low into this turn window, that will be bullish.

Silver – Silver tested $24.59 on Monday and the silver stocks are trying to lead. 

Bonds – Bonds are testing 120'10 Monday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil bounced to $80.69 on Monday and may go higher into the 8/30 Full Moon.

Dollar Index – The USD made a rally high at 104.45 Friday morning and started a correction. The USD was due a weekly reversal top last week.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 8/28-8/29

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - August 27, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX is seeing intense intra-day volatility which can be profitable for day traders but requires a constant vigil with your trading computer. From the post-NVDA earnings euphoria, the E-mini declined in an EW 5-wave pattern which bottomed Friday morning and then rebounded in a 3-wave rally into Friday's close. The oversold rally that started on 8/18 resembles a bear flag pattern that could still rally higher into Monday - we still hold some SQQQ and SPX shares for the next leg down. Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hole was taken initially as slightly hawkish by the market and the SPX and made lower lows early Friday before rebounding. In our view, inflation forces have finished their corrective decline and are building for their next leg up which will be led by gold, silver, bitcoin, crude oil, natural gas and uranium this fall. Bonds are reversing higher which is also bullish for stocks but the commentary from Chairman Powell came in hawkish and argues for no rate cuts until 2024. If rising rates force a big stock market break this fall, commodities will also be hit but we will favor gold, silver, crude oil and natural gas on dips. The GDX gave us a key-reversal day candle on Monday and that lead the PM sector higher into early Thursday before a correction. The USD made a high for the week at 104.45 on Friday and then started a correction. The SPX tested its 50-dma at the open Thursday before reversing down in a bearish engulfing candle - this action makes the entire rally from 8/18 look like a bear flag - the SPX did make a lower low early Friday and then rebounded into the close. Crude oil is rallying to $80.21 Sunday evening - it may be starting a run higher into the 8/30 Full Moon. The GDX gave us a key reversal day on Monday and continued higher into early Thursday before just a 3-wave correction into early Friday. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 10% gold and silver stocks, 65% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

8/27/23 (Commentary for Sunday)  Chairman Powell's speech was slightly more hawkish than the market expected and the SPX tested the 8/18 low early before rallying in a 3-wave bounce into the close. The market is showing some intense intra-day volatility as it navigates the intense astro-finance period of 8/15 to 9/04. The rally from the 8/18 low at SPX 4332 looks like a bear flag but it could have farther to go on the upside into Monday.  Our view remains that the US debt downgrade was a big deal and that Venus retrograde has reversed the SPX and NDX down for an intermediate correction that could post a near-term low by 9/04. The SPX and NDX reversal down on 8/24 after furious AI-tech buying before NVDA earnings seems like a major inflection point to us.  The next 3-star critical reversal day in the SPX falls on 8/30 but it could have come in early on 8/24. The VIX has been basing for a month and a half and started a trend higher on 8/15 but once again it got trashed on a Friday. Our indicators continue to trend like late February 2020 with the Option Premium Ratio starting to trend higher after printing multi-year lows - this setup led to an important intermediate high in the SPX on 2/20/20 and a 20% correction into March 23, 2020. Venus retrograde kicked in on 7/22 and this is pressuring the stock market down as the US debt downgrade brings the bullish traders back to reality on near-term interest rate risk. The large Spiral Time Cluster indicated a significant market high in the 6/23-6/27+ 1 month timeframe. We have limited short positions to 1.5% of our portfolio and maintain as much cash as possible for an important SPX low into early September. The last three years in gold resembles the basing in the SPX from 1980-1982 before the big lift off in August 1982. Staying above $1900 will keep gold in a bullish "wave 2" pullback pattern and the 8/28-8/29 timing window is a time target for an important low. We're planning to remain in mostly cash and wait for extreme bargains to appear in our favorite sectors into September/October. We believe that investors are too dovish on rates going into Q3 and stocks are vulnerable to more interest rate shocks - the PPI report on 8/11 argues that the second wave of inflation may be starting. The USD may may have made a weekly reversal pivot last week. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should magnify the SPX and NDX decline here. We could see a near-term trading low by 8/30 on the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 7/27 SPX high but we could continue lower until Venus turns direct on 9/4.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold may have seen a low in the 8/21-8/22 turn window on its test of $1913. The 8/28-8/30 time window is important for gold and if it comes in a as a correction low for the GDX this will be very bullish.

Stocks – The SPX made a lower low early Friday before rallying in 3-waves into the close - the SPX appears to be tracing out a bear flag but we could rally higher into Monday. The intense intra-day volatility could continue into next week. 

Gold – Gold tested $1951 early Thursday and then gave us a 3-wave correction into just after Chairman Powell's speech before bouncing into Sunday evening. The 8/28-8/30 turn window will be crucial for gold - if the GDX makes a corrective low into this turn window, that will be bullish.

Silver – Silver tested $24.44 on Friday and started a 3-wave correction into Sunday evening.. 

Bonds – Bonds are testing 119'21 Sunday evening and have been tracking sideways after Chairman Powell's speech  and the TLT made a lower low at 92.23. Bonds are pulling back to 119'18 ahead of the Chairman Powell's speech early Friday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil bottomed Friday after Powell's speech and is bouncing to test $80 Sunday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD made a rally high at 104.45 Friday morning and started a correction. The USD was due a weekly reversal top last week.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 8/28-8/29

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 24, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: After the euphoria of the NVDA earnings after Wednesday's close, the E-mini and NQ futures gave us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart. The NDX and SPX both gave us a key-reversal day down on Thursday with bearish engulfing candlesticks. The oversold rally that started on 8/18 now resembles a bear flag pattern. Now the focus is on Chairman Powell at Jackson Powell Friday morning to help turn the tide back up. The $TRIN tested 3 during the session which is statistically bullish for Thursday. In our view, inflation forces have finished their corrective decline and are building for their next leg up which will be led by gold, silver, bitcoin, crude oil, natural gas and uranium this fall. Bonds are reversing higher which is also bullish for stocks but the commentary from Chairman Powell at Jackson Hole and Lagarde from the ECB will be the next focus of the market. If rising rates force a big stock market break this fall, commodities will also be hit but we will favor gold, silver, crude oil and natural gas on dips. The GDX gave us a key-reversal day candle on Monday and that lead the PM sector higher into early Thursday before a correction. The USD made a high for the week at 104.27 Thursday evening. The SPX tested its 50-dma at the open Thursday before reversing down in a bearish engulfing candle - this action makes the entire rally from 8/18 look like a bear flag. Crude oil remains below $80 at $79.39 Thursday evening. The GDX gave us a key reversal day on Monday and continued higher into early Thursday before a correction. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 10% gold and silver stocks, 65% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

8/24/23 (Commentary for Thursday)  After euphoric price action post-NVDA earnings, the SPX opened higher Thursday and tested its 50-dma before reversing down under heavy selling to trace out a bearish engulfing candle. How the market trades after Chairman Powell's talk at Jackson Hole Friday morning at 9:00 AM EDT will set the tone.  Our view remains that the US debt downgrade was a big deal and that Venus retrograde has reversed the SPX and NDX down for an intermediate correction that could post a near-term low by early September. The SPX and NDX reversal down today after furious AI-tech buying before NVDA earnings seems like a major inflection point to us. The VIX has been basing for a month and a half and started a trend higher on last week's VIX expiration. Our indicators continue to trend like late February 2020 with the Option Premium Ratio starting to trend higher after printing multi-year lows - this setup led to an important intermediate high in the SPX on 2/20/20 and a 20% correction into March 23, 2020. Venus retrograde kicked in on 7/22 and this is pressuring the stock market down as the US debt downgrade brings the bullish traders back to reality on near-term interest rate risk. The large Spiral Time Cluster indicated a significant market high in the 6/23-6/27+ 1 month timeframe. We have limited short positions to 1.5% of our portfolio and maintain as much cash as possible for an important SPX low into early September. The last three years in gold resembles the basing in the SPX from 1980-1982 before the big lift off in August 1982. Staying above $1900 will keep gold in a bullish "wave 2" pullback pattern and the 8/28-8/29 timing window is a time target for an important low. We're planning to remain in mostly cash and wait for extreme bargains to appear in our favorite sectors into September/October. We believe that investors are too dovish on rates going into Q3 and stocks are vulnerable to more interest rate shocks - the PPI report on 8/11 argues that the second wave of inflation may be starting. The USD may be making a weekly reversal pivot this week. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should magnify the SPX and NDX decline here. We could see a trading bottom by 8/30 on the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 7/27 SPX high but we could continue lower until Venus turns direct on 9/4.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold may have seen a low in the 8/21-8/22 turn window on its test of $1913. Gold is in a Wave 2 correction and bullish unless we undercut $1900. 

Stocks – The SPX tested its 50-dma early Thursday and then reversed down to close a bearish engulfing candle which makes the oversold rally from 8/18 look like a bear flag pattern. 

Gold – Gold tested $1951 early Thursday before correcting but the GDX/SPX chart is showing gold stocks outperforming the SPX for the first time since May. Gold pulled back into Chairman Powell's speech and how it trades afterward will set the short-term trend.

Silver – Silver tested $24.43 Wednesday evening and is being pressured down by a rising USD. 

Bonds – Bonds made lower lows on Monday at 117'18  and the TLT made a lower low at 92.23. Bonds are pulling back to 119'18 ahead of the Chairman Powell's speech early Friday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is still below $80.00 Tuesday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD made a rally high at 104.27 Thursday evening. The USD is due a weekly reversal top this week.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 8/21-8/22

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 23, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX had another big day going into NVDA earnings after the close. Both the SPX and NDX took out their early Tuesday highs on the 34-day Fibonacci step out which is a BULLISH sign. NVDA had blow out revenue (up 88%) and earnings and could give the market a gap up opening on Thursday. The $TRIN tested 3 during the session which is statistically bullish for Thursday. In our view, inflation forces have finished their corrective decline and are building for their next leg up which will be led by gold, silver, bitcoin, crude oil, natural gas and uranium this fall. Bonds are reversing higher which is also bullish for stocks but the commentary from Chairman Powell at Jackson Hole will be the next focus of the market. If rising rates force a big stock market break this fall, commodities will also be hit but we will favor gold, silver, crude oil and natural gas on dips. The GDX gave us a key-reversal day candle on Monday and that is leading the PM sector higher here. The reversal down in the USD on the BRIC meeting and the pullback in the 10-yr US rate is also giving gold room to move higher. We were bearish on the NDX and SPX but the rallies the last couple of days may be part of a reversal higher and we need to ne flexible. Crude oil remained below $80 Wednesday as the XLE continued its correction. On the weaker 10-yr US rate and the weaker USD, gold rebounded to test $1950 and the GDX and silver led the way. The GDX gave us a key reversal day on Monday and continued higher into Wednesday. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 10% gold and silver stocks, 65% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

8/23/23 (Commentary for Wednesday)  The SPX gave us a Positive Volume Reversal Day and with the $TRIN testing 3 and the blow off earnings on NVDA, we could see a gap-up opening early Thursday that could test the 50-dma. The high put/call ratio 0f 1.17 and high $TRIN of 1.89 argue for a bullish outcome for Thursday.  Our view remains that the US debt downgrade is a big deal and that Venus retrograde has reversed the SPX and NDX down for an intermediate correction that could post a near-term low by 8/30. However, the SPX only declined in 3-waves for a 5% pullback and appears to be giving us a B-Wave bounce. The VIX has been basing for a month and a half and started a trend higher on last week's VIX expiration. Our indicators continue to trend like late February 2020 with the Option Premium Ratio starting to trend higher after printing multi-year lows - this setup led to an important intermediate high in the SPX on 2/20/20 and a 20% correction into March 23, 2020. Venus retrograde kicked in on 7/22 and this is pressuring the stock market down as the US debt downgrade brings the bullish traders back to reality on near-term interest rate risk. The large Spiral Time Cluster  indicated a significant market high in the 6/23-6/27+ 1 month timeframe. We have limited short positions to 1.5% of our portfolio and maintain as much cash as possible for an important SPX low in the last week of August. The last three years in gold resembles the basing in the SPX from 1980-1982 before the big lift off in August 1982. Staying above $1900 will keep gold in a bullish "wave 2" pullback pattern and the 8/15-8/17 New Moon Timing Window is a time target for an important low which could take us into the $1910s - we met that price target on Monday and that pullback could have been a Wave 2 test of $1900. We're planning to remain in mostly cash and wait for extreme bargains to appear in our favorite sectors into September/October. We believe that investors are too dovish on rates going into Q3 and stocks are vulnerable to more interest rate shocks - the PPI report on 8/11 argues that the second wave of inflation may be starting. The USD may be making a weekly reversal pivot this week. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should magnify the SPX and NDX decline here. We could see a trading bottom by 8/30 on the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 7/27 SPX high.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold and silver may have seen a low in the 8/21-8/22 turn window. Gold is in a Wave 2 correction and bullish unless we undercut $1900. 

Stocks – The SPX, NDX, and IWM  all made early lows early Friday and then bounced in an EW a-b-c correction that could peak Thursday's open before reversing down. 

Gold – Gold tested $1913 Sunday and then Monday morning before bouncing to $1945 on Wednesday - the USD has a weekly pivot this week and a pullback could give gold some room to rally. 

Silver – Silver tested $24.43 Wednesday evening and is trying to lead gold higher. 

Bonds – Bonds made lower lows on Monday at 117'18  and the TLT made a lower low at 92.23. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil is still below $80.00 Tuesday evening and the XLE sold off again Wednesday.

Dollar Index – The USD made a rally high at 103.716 early Tuesday before correcting.  The BRIC meeting on Wednesday brought some selling to the USD. The USD is due a weekly reversal top this week.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 8/21-8/22

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 22, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX rallied into Tuesday's open but then reversed down on the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 7/19 NDX high.  Despite our early thinking, the 34-day step out came in as a high which is bearish going forward.  The 34-day Fibonacci step out for the SPX is 8/30 which could be a low. In our work, the Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turning point and our view is that the SPX and NDX finished their corrective bounces this morning and are ready to turn down again. In our view, inflation forces have finished their corrective decline and are building for their next leg up which will be led by gold, silver, bitcoin, crude oil, natural gas and uranium this fall. Rising US rates are pressuring all markets at the current time, but it looks like bonds are close to a reversal higher. If rising rates force a big stock market break this fall, commodities will also be hit but we will favor gold, silver, crude oil and natural gas on dips - we counsel PATIENCE here and a trading low in gold in the last week of August is a possibility. Many traders and market letters were calling for a SPX low on Friday - the drop of our Option Premium Ratio from 0.51 to 0.39 on Friday was a short-term buy signal. Rising rates in August 1987 caused the crash of 1987 and we may be working on an echo of that scenario in August and September 2023 as resurgent US economic numbers threaten to force US rates and the USD higher. The NDX and SPX continue to trend down and the bulls have been unable to sustain rallies so far - we may have seen a reversal down today. Crude oil remains below $80 Tuesday evening as the XLE corrected on Tuesday. Gold tested $1918 Tuesday morning before  reversing up to test $1930 late Tuesday. The GDX gave us a key reversal day on Monday and continued higher on Tuesday.  We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

8/22/23 (Commentary for Tuesday)  The SPX gave us an EW a-b-c correction into Tuesday's open and then reversed down. The 34-day Fibonacci step out today came in as a high not a low but reversed the market down.  Our view is that the US debt downgrade is a big deal and that Venus retrograde has reversed the SPX and NDX down for an intermediate correction that could post a near-term low by 8/30.  The VIX has been basing for a month and a half and started a trend higher on last week's expiration - however, we got a 3-wave correction from early Friday into Tuesday's open. Our indicators continue to trend like late February 2020 with the Option Premium Ratio starting to trend higher after printing multi-year lows - this setup led to an important intermediate high in the SPX on 2/20/20 and a 20% correction into March 23, 2020. Venus retrograde kicked in on 7/22 and this is pressuring the stock market down as the US debt downgrade brings the bullish traders back to reality on near-term interest rate risk. The large Spiral Time Cluster  indicated a significant market high in the 6/23-6/27+ 1 month timeframe. We have limited short positions to 1.5% of our portfolio and maintain as much cash as possible for an important SPX low in the last week of August. The last three years in gold resembles the basing in the SPX from 1980-1982 before the big lift off in August 1982. Staying above $1900 will keep gold in a bullish "wave 2" pullback pattern and the 8/15-8/17 New Moon Timing Window is a time target for an important low which could take us into the $1910s - we met that price target on Monday. We're planning to remain in mostly cash and wait for extreme bargains to appear in our favorite sectors into September. We believe that investors are too dovish on rates going into Q3 and stocks are vulnerable to more interest rate shocks - the PPI report on 8/11 argues that the second wave of inflation may be starting. Bonds are the 800-lb gorilla in the room here and the 10-yr US yield could be breaking out of a cup and handle pattern that could launch it even higher. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should magnify the SPX and NDX decline here. We could see a trading bottom by 8/30 on the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 7/27 SPX high.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold and silver may be close to a low going into the 8/21-8/22 turn window. Gold is in a Wave 2 correction and bullish unless we undercut $1900. 

Stocks – The SPX, NDX, and IWM  all made early lows early Friday and then bounced in an EW a-b-c correction that peaked on Tuesday's open before reversing down. The the 8/19 Time Spiral could make things very volatile into 8/30.

Gold – Gold tested $1914 Sunday evening and then Monday morning before bouncing to $1930 MTuesday evening - the USD has a weekly pivot this week and a pullback could give gold some room to rally. 

Silver – Silver is testing $23.66 Tuesday evening and is trying to lead gold higher. Ideally, we'd like to see silver below $22.26.

Bonds – Bonds made lower lows on Monday at 117'18  and the TLT made a lower low at 92.23. The US 10-yr yield made new rally highs at 43.62 early Tuesday which is a threat to stocks.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is still below $80.00 Tuesday evening and the XLE sold off today.

Dollar Index – The USD made a rally high at 103.716 early Tuesday before correcting.  The BRIC meeting on Wednesday could bring selling to the USD.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 8/21-8/22

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 21, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX corrected early Monday but managed to make a very strong close in their reversal from early Friday. It was an impressive rally day despite the 10-yr US rate making new highs. In our work, the Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turning point - how the NDX and SPX trade on Tuesday will determine the short-term market trend. We were targeting short-term lows for the NDX and SPX into 8/22, the 34-day Fibonacci step out for the QQQ from its 7/19 high - however, it is possible that the NDX and SPX could make a high. In our view, inflation forces have finished their corrective decline and are building for their next leg up which will be led by gold, silver, bitcoin, crude oil, natural gas and uranium prices in the Fall after the 10-yr US rate  peaks. Despite today's trading action, rising US rates are pressuring all markets at the current time. If rising rates force a big stock market break this fall, commodities will also be hit and we will favor gold, silver, crude oil and natural gas on dips - we counsel PATIENCE here and a trading low in gold in the last week of August is a possibility. Many traders and market letters were calling for a SPX low on Friday - the drop of our Option Premium Ratio from 0.51 to 0.39 was a short-term buy signal. The US debt downgrade and the Venus retrograde continues to pressure stocks down - but it had been just a slow, volatile grind lower for the SPX and NDX so far until last week when the CBOE put/call ratio jumped from 1.05 to 1.27 and argued that the market might be approaching a "panic cycle" as we finish monthly option expiration on Monday.  Rising rates in August 1987 caused the crash of 1987 and we may be working on an echo of that scenario in August and September 2023 as resurgent US economic numbers threaten to force US rates and the USD higher.  The NDX and SPX continue to trend down and the bulls have been unable to sustain rallies so far - that could change soon. Crude oil pulled back to test $80 on Monday and the XLE sold off. Gold tested its S1-support level at $1914 Sunday evening and Monday and bounced to $1924 Monday evening. The GDX tested its S1-support pivot at 27.28 and rallied to 27.77 on Monday's close.  We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

8/21/23 (Commentary for Monday)  Despite the negative market breadth, the SPX and NDX had good rally days, but the IWM only gave us a weak EW a-b-c bounce from Friday. The QQQ moved up big today as the AI-trade kicked in big with NVDA, SMH, MSFT and TSLA having big up days. Our belief is that the US debt downgrade is a big deal and that Venus retrograde has reversed the SPX and NDX down for an intermediate correction that could post a near-term low by 8/22 before a bounce - the rally from Friday into Tuesday could be reversed down by Tuesday which is a reversal day. The VIX has been basing for a month and a half and started a trend higher on last week's expiration - however, we got a 3-wave correction from early Friday into Monday. Our indicators continue to trend like late February 2020 with the Option Premium Ratio starting to trend higher after printing multi-year lows - this setup led to an important intermediate high in the SPX on 2/20/20 and a 20% correction into March 23, 2020. Venus retrograde kicked in on 7/22 and this is pressuring the stock market down as the US debt downgrade brings the bullish traders back to reality on near-term interest rate risk. The large Spiral Time Cluster  indicated a significant market high in the 6/23-6/27+ 1 month timeframe. We have limited short positions to 1.5% of our portfolio and maintain as much cash as possible for an important SPX low in the last week of August. The last three years in gold resembles the basing in the SPX from 1980-1982 before the big lift off in August 1982. Staying above $1900 will keep gold in a bullish "wave 2" pullback pattern and the 8/15-8/17 New Moon Timing Window is a time target for an important low which could take us into the $1910s - we met that price target today. We're planning to remain in mostly cash and wait for extreme bargains to appear in our favorite sectors into September. We believe that investors are too dovish on rates going into Q3 and stocks are vulnerable to more interest rate shocks - the PPI report on 8/11 argues that the second wave of inflation may be starting. Bonds are the 800-lb gorilla in the room here and the 10-yr US yield could be breaking out of a cup and handle pattern that could launch it even higher. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should magnify the SPX and NDX decline here. We could see a "panic bottom" by 8/22 on the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 7/19 NDX high.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold and silver may be close to a low going into the 8/21-8/22 turn window. Gold is in a Wave 2 correction and bullish unless we undercut $1900. 

Stocks – The SPX, NDX, and IWM  all made early lows early Friday before recovering into the close. The the 8/19 Time Spiral could make things very volatile for 8/21-8/22.

Gold – Gold tested $1914 Sunday evening and then Monday morning before bouncing to $1924 Monday evening - the USD has a weekly pivot this week and a pullback could give gold some room to rally. 

Silver – Silver is testing $23.44 Monday and is trying to lead gold higher. 

Bonds – Bonds made lower lows on Monday at 117'18  and the TLT made a lower low at 92.23. The US 10-yr yield made new rally highs at 43.54 on Monday which is a threat to stocks.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $80.00 Monday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 103.6 early Friday before rolling over into Monday - we saw  a higher US 10-yr rate today but the USD did not make a higher high. The BRIC meeting on Wednesday could bring selling to the USD.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 8/21-8/22

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - August 20, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX gapped lower early Friday but filled their gaps before the close. The US bond market bounced and traders hoped for a major reversal. However, the NDX and SPX did not close well on Friday and sets us up for at least a retest of Friday's lows. We are targeting short-term lows for the NDX and SPX into 8/22, the 34-day Fibonacci step out for the QQQ from its 7/19 high - we expect to sell all of our SPXS and SQQQ shares by 8/22. In our view, inflation forces have finished their corrective decline and are building for their next leg up which will be led by gold, silver, bitcoin, crude oil, natural gas and uranium prices in the Fall after the 10-yr US rate  peaks. Rising US rates are pressuring all markets at the current time. If rising rates force a big stock market break this fall, commodities will also be hit and we will favor gold, silver, crude oil and natural gas on dips - we counsel PATIENCE here and a low in gold in the last week of August is a possibility. Many traders and market letters were calling for a SPX low on Friday - taking profits is never a bad idea, but we are looking for a low early next week by 8/22. The US debt downgrade and the Venus retrograde continues to pressure stocks down - but it had been just a slow, volatile grind lower for the SPX and NDX so far until last week when the CBOE put/call ratio jumped from 1.05 to 1.27 and argued that the market may be approaching a "panic cycle" as we finish monthly option expiration on Monday.  Rising rates in August 1987 caused the crash of 1987 and we may be working on an echo of that scenario in August and September 2023 as resurgent US economic numbers threaten to force US rates and the USD higher. After the BOJ allowed their long rates to move higher, other global rates in England and Germany have moved higher. The Option Premium Ratio fell from a multi-month high of 0.51 to 0.39 on Friday, which is a short-term buy signal for the SPX - we expect this signal to kick in on Tuesday. The NDX and SPX continue to trend down and the bulls have been unable to sustain rallies so far - that could change soon. Crude oil is testing its R1-resistance pivot at $81.42 Sunday evening evening. Gold tested its S1-support level at $1913 and bounced. The GDX is trying to hold up overnight Sunday. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

8/20/23 (Commentary for Sunday)  Led by the IWM, the SPX , NDX continued to trend to lower lows before rebounding. Traders in China are looking for a more aggressive move from Ji. The dip buyers have contained the SPX sell off to just 5.1% so far but have been unable to launch a sustained, impulsive uptrend - the rally into Friday's end of session did not close well. The SPX and NDX did close slightly lower again on Friday as the market went through monthly option expiration. Our belief is that the US debt downgrade is a big deal and that Venus retrograde has reversed the SPX and NDX down for an intermediate correction that could post a near-term low by 8/22 before a bounce. The VIX has been basing for a month and a half and started a trend higher on the last day going into expiration on Tuesday. After spiking to new highs of the summer >18 last week, the VIX broke "price symmetry" with previous rallies which argues for a trend higher. Our indicators continue to trend like late February 2020 with the Option Premium Ratio starting to trend higher after printing multi-year lows - this setup led to an important intermediate high in the SPX on 2/20/20 and a 20% correction into March 23, 2020. Venus retrograde kicked in on 7/22 and this is pressuring the stock market down as the US debt downgrade brings the bullish traders back to reality on near-term interest rate risk. The large Spiral Time Cluster  indicated a significant market high in the 6/23-6/27+ 1 month timeframe. We have limited short positions to 1.5% of our portfolio and maintain as much cash as possible for an important SPX low early next week. The last three years in gold resembles the basing in the SPX from 1980-1982 before the big lift off in August 1982. Staying above $1900 will keep gold in a bullish "wave 2" pullback pattern and the 8/15-8/17 New Moon Timing Window is a time target for an important low which could take us into the $1910s. We're planning to remain in mostly cash and wait for extreme bargains to appear in our favorite sectors into September. We believe that investors are too dovish on rates going into Q3 and stocks are vulnerable to more interest rate shocks - the PPI report on 8/11 argues that the second wave of inflation may be starting. Bonds are the 800-lb gorilla in the room here and the 10-yr US yield could be breaking out of a cup and handle pattern that could launch it even higher. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The US debt downgrade and global rise in long rates should magnify the SPX and NDX decline here. We could see a "panic bottom" by 8/22 on the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 7/19 NDX high.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold and silver may be close to a low going into the 8/21-8/22 turn window. Gold is in a Wave 2 correction and bullish unless we undercut $1900. 

Stocks – The SPX, NDX, and IWM  all made early lows early Friday before recovering into the close. The the 8/19 Time Spiral could make things very volatile for 8/21-8/22.

Gold – Gold tested $1913 Sunday evening before bouncing. 

Silver – Silver is testing $22.88 Sunday evening after an an EW a-b-c bounce. 

Bonds – Bonds tested 118'14 on Friday  and the TLT may have put in a low. However, the US 10-yr yield may try to test its recent high at 42.74 on Monday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $81.42 Sunday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 103.6 early Friday before rolling over in a correction.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 8/21-8/22