All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 31, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The IWM made a new rally high today as the SPX and NDX continue to grind out their respective B-Waves. With the key earnings from AAPL and AMZN aftermarket on 8/4 the SPX and NDX may tread sideways into Thursday. Tomorrow is the 13-day Fibonacci step out from 7/19 and that could give us a short-term high in the  QQQ. The Venus retrograde event on 7/22 still has not given us a sustained move down in the SPX but its orb of effect still should last until 8/4. The SPX is making a broadening top formation that could take more time to unfold before additional downside and it should hold up into AAPL and AMZN earnings on 8/4. Crude oil rallied higher to tag $82 Monday evening  and today's spike in crude oil galvanized rallies in  XOM and CVX. The volatility measures VXX and VIX remained contained on Monday as the Option Premium Ratio came in at 0.24 - still less than the 7/24 reading of 0.28. We need to see a value greater than 0.28 to give us a confirmed "volatility breakout signal" and we are not there yet. Venus went retrograde on 7/22 and this could still reverse the SPX down hard into 8/5 - the next few days will be telling. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver an platinum.

7/31/23 (Commentary for Monday)  The SPX appears to be doing an EW a-b-c correction with "wave a" down on Thursday, "wave b" up on Friday/Monday and "wave c" down that could start on Tuesday. Our indicators continue to trend like late February 2020 with the VIX BB  "pinching" and the Option Premium Ratio values trending to multi-year lows in the 0.10s-0.20s-0.30s - this setup led to an important intermediate high in the SPX and a 20% correction into March 23, 2020. Venus retrograde kicked in on 7/22 and this has the potential for a 20% correction like it did when it last occurred on 12/28/21. The pullback in the SPX was only 3-waves into Thursday's close and we need an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart to confirm a high. Remember that in 2018, after a series of strong astro-finance signals in 9/18, the 10/3 Venus retrograde turned the SPX down for a 20% correction into 12/26/18. The large Spiral Time Cluster still has our focus for a possible market high from 6/23-6/27+ 1 month. We have limited short positions to 1.5% of our portfolio and maintain as much cash as possible for an important SPX low in late August. One thing that we want to still see for a SPX top is a TRIN-5 overbought sell signal (< 4.0) which has eluded us up to now. We also would like to see bearish Dark Pool positions being accumulated in the SPY, QQQ and IWM indices. The last three years in gold resembles the basing in the SPX from 1980-1982 before the big lift off in August 1982. Staying above $1900 will keep gold in a bullish "wave 2" pullback pattern. We're planning to remain in mostly cash and wait for extreme bargains to appear in our favorite sectors into late August. We believe that investors are too dovish on rates going into Q3 and stocks are vulnerable to an interest rate shock. The most recent plot of the combined Fed+ECB+BOJ balance sheet shows that it has been shrinking in recent weeks and is no longer a source of liquidity for the global stock market. Crude oil hit $82 Monday and the spike in oil galvanized the rallies in the XLE stocks - XOM and CVX for instance. The US bond market is rolling over after a 3-wave rally and the TNX could make another rally. The US bond market still looks heavy to us and we are looking for another leg down in gold and silver this week. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX made a rally high on 7/27 while the NDX made a lower high for a case of bearish divergence. The SPX continues to work on its B-Wave test of its 7/27 high.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold rallied into Monday but the rising 10-yr US rate could pressure it down on Tuesday/Wednesday. 

Stocks – The SPX continued its B-Wave test its 7/27 high at 4607.07. The Option Premium Ratio came in at 0.24 on Monday, still less than its 7/24 reading at 0.28. We need to see the Option Premium Ratio print a reading > 0.28 to confirm a "volatility break out".

Gold – US bonds look heavy and could pressure gold down ino Tuesday/Wednesday. 

Silver – The COTs for silver look short-term bearish.

Bonds – Bonds rallied in 3-waves and appear to be rolling over.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tagged $82 on Monday and sparked the XLE stocks higher - including XOM and CVX. 

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 102 Monday evening and that is pressuring gold and silver down. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/31-8/1 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - July 30, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Weaker than expected inflation data gave the market a gap-up open on Friday and the following rally appeared to be a B-Wave of an EW a-b-c flat correction. This count allows for a C-Wave down on Monday/Tuesday before the SPX presses on to higher highs above 4607.07. The Venus retrograde event on 7/22 still has not given us a sustained move down in the SPX but its orb of effect still should last until 8/4.  Logic here says that the market should hold up until the earnings of AAPL and AMZM are reported on 8/4.  The market rebounded strongly from the 8-day Fibonacci step out for the QQQ which fell on 7/27. We had focused on 7/27, the 8-day Fibonacci step out from the NDX high on 7/19, as a time window to take initial profits in the SQQQ and SPXS shares and hopefully most did. The SPX is making a broadening top formation that could take more time to unfold before additional downside and it should hold up into AAPL and AMZN earnings on 8/4. Crude oil grinded to a higher high at $80.71 Sunday evening before correcting and we are waiting and the earnings reports from XOM and CVX Friday morning didn't help those stocks much. The volatility measures VXX and VIX remained contained on Friday as the Option Premium Ratio came in at 0.25 - still less than the 7/24 reading of 0.28. We need to see a value greater than 0.28 to give us a confirmed "volatility breakout signal" and we are not there yet. Venus went retrograde on 7/22 and this could still reverse the SPX down hard into 8/5. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver an platinum.

7/30/23 (Commentary for Sunday)  The SPX appears to be doing an EW a-b-c correction with "wave a" down on Thursday, "wave b" up on Friday and possibly "wave c" down on Monday/Tuesday before another push higher. Our indicators continue to trend like late February 2020 with the VIX BB  "pinching" and the Option Premium Ratio values trending to multi-year lows in the 0.10s-0.20s-0.30s - this setup led to an important intermediate high in the SPX and a 20% correction into March 23, 2020. Venus retrograde kicked in on 7/22 and this has the potential for a 20% correction like it did when it last occurred in late Dec 2021. The pullback in the SPX was only 3-waves into Thursday's close and we need an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart to confirm a high. Remember that in 2018, after a series of strong astro-finance signals in 9/18, the 10/3 Venus retrograde turned the SPX down for a 20% correction into 12/26/18. The large Spiral Time Cluster still has our focus for a possible market high from 6/23-6/27+ 1 month. We have limited short positions to 1.5% of our portfolio and maintain as much cash as possible for an important SPX low in late August. One thing that we want to still see for a SPX top is a TRIN-5 overbought sell signal (< 4.0) which has eluded us up to now. We also would like to see bearish Dark Pool positions being accumulated in the SPY, QQQ and IWM indices. The last three years in gold resembles the basing in the SPX from 1980-1982 before the big lift off in August 1982. Staying above $1900 will keep gold in a bullish "wave 2" pullback pattern. We're planning to remain in mostly cash and wait for extreme bargains to appear in our favorite sectors into late August. We believe that investors are too dovish on rates going into Q3 and stocks are vulnerable to an interest rate shock. The most recent plot of the combined Fed+ECB+BOJ balance sheet shows that it has been shrinking in recent weeks and is no longer a source of liquidity for the global stock market. Crude oil hit $80.71 Sunday evening and the Friday earnings from XOM and CVX failed to rally their stocks. A bad bond auction shot the 10-yr US rate higher on Thursday and this hit gold and silver hard. The US bond market still looks heavy to us and we are looking for another leg down in gold and silver this week. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX made a rally high on 7/27 while the NDX made a lower high for a case of bearish divergence. The SPX continues to trace out a broadening top formation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold rallied into Comex gold option expiration on Wednesday but reversed down hard on Thursday as the US 10-yr rate started to spike. The US bond market stiil looks heavy here and gold and silver may be pressured down further.

Stocks – The SPX made a new rally high on Thursday at 4607.07 but the NDX made a lower high for a case of bearish divergence. The Option Premium Ratio came in again at 0.25 on Friday, still less than Monday's reading at 0.28. We need to see the Option Premium Ratio print a reading > 0.28 to confirm a "volatility break out".

Gold – US bonds look heavy and could pressure gold down to $1935 on Monday. 

Silver – The COTs for silver look short-term bearish.

Bonds – Bonds look heavy after a bad 7-yr note auction and strong US economic numbers.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tagged $80.71 Sunday evening, but the earnings reports of XOM and CVX failed to lift the energy sector on Friday.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 101.80 Sunday evening and that is pressuring gold and silver down. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/31-8/1 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 27, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Following the earnings of META aftermarket on Wednesday, the SPX and NDX had a gap-up open Thursday morning. The SPX made a new rally high at 4607.07 soon after the open and then declined into the close. The NDX made a lower high soon after the open and then declined in an EW 5-waves into the close on the hourly chart. On the weak close for the market today, we were able to sell some of our SQQQ and SPXS shares near the end of the session. The VXX and VIX gave us key reversal days today and imply that the trend in market volatility has reversed higher. We focused on today, the 8-day Fibonacci step out from the NDX high on 7/19, as a time window to take initial profits in the SQQQ and SPXS shares. The SPX is making a broadening top formation that could take more time to unfold before additional downside. Our strategy was to sell our SQQQ and SPXS shares on post-Fed weakness today with the idea of buying back later. Crude oil grinded to a higher high at $80.6 today before correcting and we are waiting for the earnings reports from XOM and CVX Friday morning before the bell. Today, the closing Option Premium Ratio came in again at 0.27 - still less than Monday's reading of 0.28. We need to see a value greater than 0.28 to give us a confirmed "volatility breakout signal" and we are not there yet. This is the most important week of the summer - Venus went retrograde on 7/22 and this could reverse the SPX down hard post-Fed. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver an platinum.

7/27/23 (Commentary for Thursday)  Once again the SPX gave us another marginal high at 4607.07 but the NDX only gave us a lower high.  Our indicators continue to trend like late February 2020 with the VIX BB  "pinching" and the Option Premium Ratio values trending to multi-year lows in the 0.10s-0.20s-0.30s - this setup led to an important intermediate high in the SPX and a 20% correction into March 23, 2020. Venus retrograde kicked in on 7/22 and this has the potential for a 20% correction like it did when it last occurred in late Dec 2021 - however, despite the reversal down today, the bulls still remain in control.  The pullback in the SPX was only 3-waves into the close and we need an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart to confirm a high. Remember that in 2018, after a series of strong astro-finance signals in 9/18, the 10/3 Venus retrograde turned the SPX down for a 20% correction into 12/26/18. The large Spiral Time Cluster still has our focus for a possible market high from 6/23-6/27+ 1 month. We have limited short positions to 1.5% of our portfolio and maintain as much cash as possible for an important SPX low in late August. One thing that we want to still see for a SPX top is a TRIN-5 overbought sell signal (< 4.0) which has eluded us up to now. We also would like to see bearish Dark Pool positions being accumulated in the SPY, QQQ and IWM indices. The last three years in gold resembles the basing in the SPX from 1980-1982 before the big lift off in August 1982. Staying above $1900 will keep gold in a bullish "wave 2" pullback pattern. We're planning to remain in mostly cash and wait for extreme bargains to appear in our favorite sectors into late August. We believe that investors are too dovish on rates going into Q3 and stocks are vulnerable to an interest rate shock. The most recent plot of the combined Fed+ECB+BOJ balance sheet shows that it has been shrinking in recent weeks and is no longer a source of liquidity for the global stock market. Crude oil hit $80.6 today and the oil stocks(XLE) rallied early only to fall into the close. A bad bond auction shot the 10-yr US rate higher and this hit gold hard. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX made a rally high on 7/27 while the NDX made a lower high for a case of bearish divergence. The SPX continues to trace out a broadening top formation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold rallied into Comex gold option expiration on Wednesday but reversed down hard on Thursday as the US 10-yr rate started to spike.

Stocks – The SPX made a new rally high on Thursday at 4607.07 but the NDX made a lower high for a case of bearish divergence. The Option Premium Ratio came in again at 0.27, still less than Monday's reading at 0.28. We need to see the Option Premium Ratio print a reading > 0.28 to confirm a "volatility break out".

Gold – Gold held up into Wednesday's Comex gold option expiration but reversed down hard on Thursday as the US 10-yr rate started to spike. 

Silver – Silver also fell hard on Thursday on rising US rates.

Bonds – Bonds were hit hard by a bad 7-yr note auction and strong US economic numbers.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tagged $80.6, but the oil stocks(XLE) sold off into the close.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 101.77 Thursday evening and that is pressuring gold and silver down. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/24-7/26 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 26, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Today, the SPX gave us a lot of volatility - after the release of the Fed minutes, it rallied to another marginal rally high at 4582.47 before reversing down to make a low for the session at 4547.58. Then the SPX bounced into the close making just a small down day while the mighty DJIA made its 13th positive close in a row. One again, the NDX lagged because of a post-earnings selloff in MSFT. We took advantage of the volatility to sell some of our SQQQ shares and if the SPX follows through to the downside tomorrow, we plan to sell more of the SQQQ shares. The SPX is making a broadening top formation that could take more time to unfold. Our strategy is to sell our SQQQ and SPXS shares on post-Fed weakness tomorrow with the idea of buying back later. Crude oil tested $79.77 today, high for the year, and the XLE is rotating into a leadership position - oil shares may be worth a look if we get a post-Fed sell off tomorrow. Today, the closing Option Premium Ratio came in at 0.27 - still less than Monday's reading of 0.28. We need to see a value greater than 0.28 to give us a confirmed "volatility breakout signal" and that looks iffy since the VIX closed at 13.16, a multi-week low.  We expect a post-Fed low on the 8-day Fibonacci step out on 7/27 with a QQQ target below 374. This is the most important week of the summer - Venus went retrograde on 7/22 and this could reverse the SPX down hard post-Fed. We continue to hold SQQQ and SPXS shares and will take profits on a big down day. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver an platinum.

7/26/23 (Commentary for Wednesday)  The SPX made a marginal new high post-Fed minutes and then pulled back while the DJIA made its 13th consecutive positive close - tying a record from 1987.  Our indicators continue to trend like late February 2020 with the VIX BB  "pinching" and the Option Premium Ratio values trending to multi-year lows in the 0.10s-0.20s-0.30s - this setup led to an important intermediate high in the SPX and a 20% correction into March 23, 2020. Venus retrograde kicked in on 7/22 and this has the potential for a 20% correction like it did when it last occurred in late Dec 2021 - however, the SPX has held up so far. Remember that in 2018, after a series of strong astro-finance signals in 9/18, the 10/3 Venus retrograde turned the SPX down for a 20% correction into 12/26/18. The large Spiral Time Cluster still has our focus for a possible market high from 6/23-6/27+ 1 month. We plan to limit short positions to 1.5% of our portfolio and maintain as much cash as possible for an important SPX low in late August. One thing that we want to still see is a TRIN-5 overbought sell signal (< 4.0) which has eluded us up to now. The last three years in gold resembles the basing in the SPX from 1980-1982 before the big lift off in August 1982. Staying above $1900 will keep gold in a bullish "wave 2" pattern. We're planning to remain in mostly cash and wait for extreme bargains to appear in our favorite sectors into late August. We believe that investors are too dovish on rates going into Q3 and stocks are vulnerable to an interest rate shock. The most recent plot of the combined Fed+ECB+BOJ balance sheet shows that it has been shrinking in recent weeks and is no longer a source of liquidity for the global stock market. Crude oil is doing a sideways correction from the  high of $79.9 Tuesday afternoon and the oil stocks(XLE) are rotating into a leadership position. The USD tested its S1-support pivot at 100.75 Wednesday evening - this is keeping gold elevated overnight.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX made a new marginal rally high on 7/27 at 4607.07 early before correcting while the NDX made a lower high for a case of bearish divergence. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold rallied into Comex gold option expiration today which is bearish to us..

Stocks – The SPX made a new marginal rally high on Wednesday at 4582.47 but the NDX made a lower high for a case of bearish divergence. The Option Premium Ratio came in at 0.27, still less than Monday's reading at 0.28. We need to see the Option Premium Ratio print a reading > 0.28 to confirm a "volatility break out".

Gold – Gold held up into today's Comex gold option expiration which looks short-term bearish.. 

Silver – Silver is testing $25.17 after Comex silver option expiration today.

Bonds – Bonds are close to finishing an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly chart.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tagged $79.9, a multi-week high on Tuesday and then gave us a sideways correction into Wednesday.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing its S1-support pivot at 100.75 Wednesday evening and that is boosting gold and silver. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/24-7/26 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 25, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Today was an interesting day - the SPX made a new rally high at 4580.62 but the NDX did not for a case of bearish divergence. The stock market is making a broadening top formation that is taking time. Our strategy is to sell our SQQQ and SPXS shares on post-Fed weakness on 7/26-7/27 with the idea of buying back later. Crude oil is trying to break out and the XLE is rotating into a leadership position - oil shares may be worth a look if we get a post-Fed sell off. Today, the closing Option Premium Ratio came in at 0.26 - less than Monday's reading of 0.28. We need to see a value greater than 0.28 to give us a confirmed "volatility breakout signal".  We expect a post-Fed low on the 8-day Fibonacci step out on 7/27 with a QQQ target below 374. This is the most important week of the summer - Venus went retrograde on 7/22 and this could reverse the SPX down hard post-Fed - MSFT and GOOG had earnings after Tuesday's close which should impact the open of the QQQ early Wednesday. We continue to hold SQQQ and SPXS shares and will take profits on a big down day. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver an platinum.

7/25/23 (Commentary for Tuesday) Our indicators continue to trend like late February 2020 with the VIX BB  "pinching" and the Option Premium Ratio values trending to multi-year lows in the 0.10s-0.20s-0.30s - this setup led to an important intermediate high in the SPX and a 20% correction into March 23, 2020. Venus retrograde kicked in on 7/22 and this has the potential for a 20% correction like it did when it last occurred in late Dec 2021. Remember that in 2018, after a series of strong astro-finance signals in 9/18, the 10/3 Venus retrograde turned the SPX down for a 20% correction into 12/26/18. The large Spiral Time Cluster still has our focus for a possible market high from 6/23-6/27+ 1 month. We plan to limit short positions to 1.5% of our portfolio and maintain as much cash as possible for an important SPX low in late August. The last AAII sentiment on 7/20 had a multi-month high of 61% bullish and 21% bearish - the "wall of worry" has broken and everyone is in the pool.  One thing that we want to still see is a TRIN-5 overbought sell signal (< 4.0) which has eluded us up to now. The last three years in gold resembles the basing in the SPX from 1980-1982 before the big lift off in August 1982. Staying above $1900 will keep gold in a bullish "wave 2" pattern. We're planning to remain in mostly cash and wait for extreme bargains to appear in our favorite sectors into late August. We believe that investors are too dovish on rates going into Q3 and stocks are vulnerable to an interest rate shock. The most recent plot of the combined Fed+ECB+BOJ balance sheet shows that it has been shrinking in recent weeks and is no longer a source of liquidity for the global stock market. Crude oil tested a multi-week high of $79.9 Tuesday afternoon and the oil stocks(XLE) are rotating into a leadership position. The USD tested 101.65 Tuesday morning - this pressured gold down to $1951.6.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX made a new rally high on 7/25 while the NDX made a lower high for a case of bearish divergence. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Since 7/18, the GDX has been leading gold down and that is a short-term negative for the PM sector.

Stocks – The SPX made a new rally high on Tuesday at 4580.62 but the NDX made a lower high for a case of bearish divergence. The Option Premium Ratio came in at 0.26, less than Monday's reading at 0.28. We need to see the Option Premium Ratio print a reading > 0.28 to confirm a "volatility break out".

Gold – Gold bottomed on Tuesday at $1951.6 and then bounced. 

Silver – Silver bounced into Wednesday's Comex expiration which may be bearish.

Bonds – Bonds are close to finishing an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly chart.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tagged $79.9, a multi-week high on Tuesday - the XLE continues to sub-divide higher.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 101.65 Tuesday evening which pressured gold down to $1951.6. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/24-7/26 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 24, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turning point day in our work, so an early rally in the SPX tomorrow that gets reversed back down will confirm the SELL SIGNL from 7/19. Also, during a FOMC week with minutes released on Wednesday, the SPX typically peaks on Monday and then pulls back into the Wednesday Fed minutes. On July 19, both the SPX and NDX made a 20-day trading cycle high. We can then expect a low on the 8-day Fibonacci step out on 7/27 with a 20-dma target of SPX 4435. Back-to-back values of 0.18 on 7/18-7/19 was a SELL SIGNAL. Today the Option Premium Ratio made a big percentage jump from 0.18 to 0.28 which could signal another leg down in the SPX. If the Option Premium Ratio on Tuesday comes in above 0.28 on the close, this would give us another confirmed SELL SIGNAL for the SPX. The 7/20-7/21 time window has a history of marking important rally highs. This week is the most important of the summer - Venus went retrograde on 7/22 and this could reverse the SPX down on Tuesday - MSFT and GOOG also have earnings after Tuesday's close. The 8-day Fibonacci step out from the 7/19 SPX high has us initially looking for a low on 7/27 where we could sell our SQQQ and SPXS shares. The SPX and NDX have confirmed a 20-day trading cycle high on 7/19 and we could see the SPX test 4435 (its 20-dma) by 7/27. We continue to hold SQQQ and SPXS shares and will take profits on a big down day. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver an platinum.

7/24/23 (Commentary for Monday) Our indicators continue to trend like late February 2020 with the VIX BB  "pinching" and the Option Premium Ratio values trending to multi-year lows in the 0.10s-0.20s-0.30s - this setup led to an important intermediate high in the SPX and a 20% correction into March 23, 2020. Venus retrograde kicked in on 7/22 and this has the potential for a 20% correction like it did when it last occurred in late Dec 2021. Remember that in 2018, after a series of strong astro-finance signals in 9/18, the 10/3 Venus retrograde turned the SPX down for a 20% correction into 12/26/18 . The large Spiral Time Cluster still has our focus for a possible market high from 6/23-6/27+ 1 month. We plan to limit short positions to 1.5% of our portfolio and maintain as much cash as possible for an important SPX low in late August. The last AAII sentiment on 7/20 had a multi-month high of 61% bullish and 21% bearish - the "wall of worry" has broken and everyone is in the pool.  One thing that we want to still see is a TRIN-5 overbought sell signal (< 4.0) and we are getting close to that after today's reading of 4.40. The last three years in gold resembles the basing in the SPX from 1980-1982 before the big lift off in August 1982. Staying above $1900 will keep gold in a bullish "wave 2" pattern. We're planning to remain in mostly cash and wait for extreme bargains to appear in our favorite sectors into late August. We believe that investors are too dovish on rates going into Q3 and stocks are vulnerable to an interest rate shock. The most recent plot of the combined Fed+ECB+BOJ balance sheet shows that it has been shrinking in recent weeks and is no longer a source of liquidity for the global stock market. Crude oil tested a multi-week high of $79.28 on Monday and the XLE is clearly breaking out. The USD is testing 101.43 Monday evening - this is pressuring gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPY, QQQ and IWM gave has "evening star" reversal signals on 7/20  - our near-term target is SPX 4435 which is near its 20-dma.  We could see this by 7/27.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Since 7/18, the GDX has been leading gold down and that is a short-term negative for the PM sector.

Stocks – The SPX, NDX and the IWN gave us "evening star" reversal signals on 7/20 - the SPX has a short-term target of its 20-dma(4435) on 7/27. If the SPX reverses down early Tuesday, this will confirm another leg down into 7/27.

Gold – The GDX is leading gold down here which is short-term bearish for the PM sector. 

Silver – The silver stocks are leading silver down here which is a negative for the PM sector.

Bonds – Bonds are close to finishing an EW a-b-c correction on the hourly chart.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tagged $79.28, a multi-week high on Monday - the XLE continues to sub-divide higher.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 101.42 Monday evening and that is pressuring the PM sector. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/24-7/26 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - July 23, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: We have seen the 20-day trading cycle high peak on 7/19 for the SPX with a typical minimal decline back to the 20-dma(4435.96). The Option Premium Ratio came in at 0.18 and tied for its lowest failure of the year. The 7/20-7/21 time window has a history of marking important rally highs. This coming week will be the most important of the summer - it has Venus going retrograde on 7/22 and could reverse the market down after Monday. We also have key earnings from Big Tech on 7/26 and a Fed Wednesday. The 8-day Fibonacci step out from 7/19 has us initially looking for a low on 7/27 where we could sell our SQQQ and SPXS shares. The SPX and NDX have confirmed a 20-day trading cycle high on 7/18 and we could see the SPX test 4435 (its 20-dma) by 7/27. We continue to hold SQQQ and SPXS shares and will take profits on a big down day. We prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver an platinum.

7/23/23 (Commentary for Sunday) Our indicators continue to trend like late February 2020 with the VIX BB  "pinching" and the Option Premium Ratio values trending to multi-year lows in the 0.10s-0.20s-0.30s - this setup led to an important intermediate high in the SPX and a 20% correction into March 23, 2020. Venus retrograde kicked in on 7/22 and this has the potential for a 20% correction like it did when it last occurred in late Dec 2021. Remember that in 2018, after a series of strong astro-finance signals in 9/18, the 10/3 Venus retrograde turned the SPX down for a 20% correction into 12/26/18 . The large Spiral Time Cluster still has our focus for a possible market high from 6/23-6/27+ 1 month. We plan to limit short positions to 1.5% of our portfolio and maintain as much cash as possible for an important SPX low in late August. The last three years in gold resembles the basing in the SPX from 1980-1982 before the big lift off in August 1982. We're planning to remain in mostly cash and wait for extreme bargains to appear in our favorite sectors into late August. We believe that investors are too dovish on rates going into Q3 and stocks are vulnerable to an interest rate shock. The most recent plot of the combined Fed+ECB+BOJ balance sheet shows that it has been shrinking in recent weeks and is no longer a source of liquidity for the global stock market. Crude oil tested a multi-week high of $77.29 on Friday and the XLE may be breaking out. The USD is testing 101.05 Sunday evening - this could pressure gold and silver. Our current positions are 5% natural gas, 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPY, QQQ and IWM gave has "evening star" reversal signals on Thursday  - our near-term target is SPX 4435 which is near its 20-dma.  We could see this by 7/27.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) The GDX is leading gold down here and that is a short-term negative for the PM sector.

Stocks – The SPX, NDX and the IWN gave us "evening star" reversal signals on Thursday - the SPX has a short-term target of its 20-dma(4435).

Gold – The GDX is leading gold down here . 

Silver – The silver stocks are leading silver down here which is a negative for the PM sector.

Bonds – Bonds are correcting a 5-wave advance on the hourly chart.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $77.27, a multi-week high  - the XLE continues to sub-divide higher.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 101.05 Sunday evening and that is pressuring the PM sector. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/24-7/26 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 20, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Negative reactions from the TSLA and NFLX earnings - this may have been the 20-day trading cycle high for the SPX with a typical minimal decline back to the 20-dma(4435.96). However, we did not add to short hedges as we prefer to see 5-waves down on the hourly chart for confirmation. The Option Premium Ratio came in at 0.22 and broke its down streak but call buying still dominated over put buying. The VIX got bid up to 14 as traders began to hedge their positions. The 7/20-7/21 time window has a history of marking important rally highs. The SPX gave us a bearish engulfing candle today after yesterday's Doji candlestick and this is a SELL SIGNAL. We continue to hold SQQQ and SPXS shares and will take profits on a big down day. Our near-term target for the SPX is the 20-dma near 4400 and we prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver an platinum.

7/20/23 (Commentary for Thursday) Our indicators continue to trend like late February 2020 with the VIX BB  "pinching" and the Option Premium Ratio values trending to multi-year lows in the 0.10s-0.20s-0.30s - this setup led to an important intermediate high in the SPX and a 20% correction into March 23, 2020. Yesterday, The SPY, QQQ and IWM all gave us a Doji candlestick and today all three indices gave us a "bearish engulfing candlestick" which is a confirming SELL SIGNAL. However, the QQQ and SPY have only given us a 3-wave correction so far and a retest of the highs on Wednesday for the SPY and QQQ is still possible. Remember that in 2018, after a series of strong astro-finance signals in 9/18, the 10/3 Venus retrograde turned the SPX down for a 20% correction into 12/26/18 - the next Venus retrograde is 7/22 and falls on a monthly option expiration. The large Spiral Time Cluster still has our focus for a possible market high from 6/23-6/27+ 1 month. Today, the SPX tested 4578.43 in the 7/16-7/19 New Moon Timing Window which is substantially higher than our target price of 4538 so we will refrain from adding anymore SQQQ and SPXS shares until we see the SPX making an EW 5-waves down on the hour chart. We plan to limit short positions to 1.5% of our portfolio and maintain as much cash as possible for an important SPX low in late August. The last three years in gold resembles the basing in the SPX from 1980-1982 before the big lift off in August 1982. We're planning to remain in mostly cash and wait for extreme bargains to appear in our favorite sectors into late August. We believe that investors are too dovish on rates going into Q3 and stocks are vulnerable to an interest rate shock. The most recent plot of the combined Fed+ECB+BOJ balance sheet shows that it has been shrinking in recent weeks and is no longer a source of liquidity for the global stock market. Crude oil is testing its R1-resistance pivot at $76.28 Thursday evening and the XLE is sub-dividing higher. The USD is testing its R2-resistance pivot at 100.77 Thursday evening - this could pressure gold and silver. Our current positions are 5% natural gas, 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPY, QQQ and IWM gave has "evening star" reversal signals today - our near-term target is SPY 440 which is near the 20-dma.  

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) The GDX is leading gold down here and that is a short-term negative for the PM sector.

Stocks – The SPX, NDX and the IWN gave us "evening star" reversal signals today - the SPX has a short-term target of its 20-dma(4435).

Gold – The GDX is leading gold down here. 

Silver – The silver stocks are leading silver down here which is a negative for the PM sector.

Bonds – Bonds are correcting a 5-wave advance on the hourly chart.

Crude Oil – Crude oil found support at its S1-support pivot at $74.76  - the XLE continues to sub-divide higher.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 100.77 and that is pressuring the PM sector. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/17-7/19. 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 19, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX peaked at noon EDT today at 4578.43 and then it declined in an EW 5-waves down on the 5-min chart - this may have been the 20-day trading cycle high for the SPX with a typical minimal decline back to the 20-dma(4435.96). However, we did not add to short hedges as we prefer to see 5-waves down on the hourly chart for confirmation. The Option premium Ratio has given us 8 declining or equal days in a row and that implies that we are close to an important top. Despite impressive attempts to push it down, the cash VIX has positively correlated with the SPX for 4 out of 5 trading days and that suggests that we are close to an important high. The negative earnings reactions to TSLA and NFLX and the rising VIX futures overnight suggests a gap-down open on Thursday. The 7/20 date has a history of marking important rally highs. We still believe that lower SPX lows could be seen by August and prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver an platinum.

7/19/23 (Commentary for Wednesday) Our indicators continue to trend like late February 2020 with the VIX BB  "pinching" and the Option Premium Ratio values trending to multi-year lows in the 0.10s-0.20s-0.30s - this setup led to an important intermediate high in the SPX and a 20% correction into March 23, 2020. Today, the Option Premium Ratio came in again at 0.18 - very close to a 5-yr low at 0.16, and the OPR has now given us eight-consecutive down days which is very rare and a SELL SIGNAL. Remember that in 2018, after a series of strong astro-finance signals in 9/18, the 10/3 Venus retrograde turned the SPX down for a 20% correction into 12/26/18 - the next Venus retrograde is 7/22. The large Spiral Time Cluster still has our focus for a possible market high from 6/23-6/27+ 1 month. Today, the SPX tested 4578.43 in the 7/16-7/19 New Moon Timing Window which is substantially higher than our target price of 4538 so we will refrain from adding anymore SQQQ and SPXS shares until we see the SPX making an EW 5-waves down on the hour chart. We plan to limit short positions to 1.5% of our portfolio and maintain as much cash as possible for an important SPX low in late August. The last three years in gold resembles the basing in the SPX from 1980-1982 before the big lift off in August 1982. We're planning to remain in mostly cash and wait for extreme bargains to appear in our favorite sectors into late August. We believe that investors are too dovish on rates going into Q3 and stocks are vulnerable to an interest rate shock. The most recent plot of the combined Fed+ECB+BOJ balance sheet shows that it has been shrinking in recent weeks and is no longer a source of liquidity for the global stock market. Crude oil  tested $77 on Wednesday but could still make lows for the year in August. The USD tested 100.57 Wednesday but is rolling over in the evening - this could boost gold and silver. Our current positions are 5% natural gas, 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX tested 4578.43 Wednesday which is above our 4538 price target - we are refraining from adding anymore SQQQ and SPXS until we see 5-waves down on the hourly SPX chart.  

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold pushed up to $1989 Wednesday evening aided by  a weak USD and lower bond rates.

Stocks – The SPX tested 4578.43 Tuesday in the 7/16-7/19 New Moon Timing Window, but since we have exceeded our price target of 4533 we are refraining from adding more SQQQ and SPXS until we see more confirmation of a top.

Gold – Gold pushed up to $1989 and looks like we could go higher. 

Silver – Silver tested $25.48 Wednesday evening on USD weakness.

Bonds – Bonds are making highs for the week at 127'24 - lower rates is helping the PM sector.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $77 and could move higher - the XLE has rallied in 5-waves on the hourly chart.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding above 100 Wednesday evening. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/17-7/19. 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 18, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX rallied beyond our price target of 4538 - the 20-day trading cycle for the SPX came in today with a minimum pullback to the 20-dma. However, the SPX, NDX and IWM are all grinding higher and remain above their respective 9-ema daily averages. We added a few more SPXS shares early in the day, but when the SPX took out yesterday's high at 4532.85, we remained in cash for the rest of the day. At this point the trend remains higher for the SPX, NDX and IWM and the bulls remain in control. Also, the cash VIX went inverse to the SPX and closed down for the day. A lot of traders are trying to push the VIX down and the VXX and UVXY made undercut lows Tuesday. The QQQ has made highs for the year today and the Big Tech stocks(MSFT, TSLA, NVDA) had big blow out days, but we need to see an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart to confirm a trading top. The market continues to be complacent about the VIX and traders are still trying to short it - this will change soon. We still believe that lower SPX lows could be seen by August and prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG) and wheat (WEAT), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver an platinum.

7/18/23 (Commentary for Tuesday) Our indicators continue to trend like late February 2020 with the VIX BB  "pinching" and the Option Premium Ratio values trending to multi-year lows in the 0.20s-0.30s - this setup led to an important intermediate high in the SPX and a 20% correction into March 23, 2020. Today, the Option Premium Ratio came in at 0.18 - very close to a 5-yr low at 0.16, and the OPR has now given us seven-consecutive down days which is very rare and a SELL SIGNAL. Remember that in 2018, after a series of strong astro-finance signals in 9/18, the 10/3 Venus retrograde turned the SPX down for a 20% correction into 12/26/18. The large Spiral Time Cluster still has our focus for a possible market high from 6/23-6/27+ 1 month. Today, the SPX tested 4562 in the 7/16-7/19 New Moon Timing Window which is substantially higher than our target price of 4538 so we will refrain from adding anymore SQQQ and SPXS shares until we see the SPX making an EW 5-waves down on the hour chart. We plan to limit short positions to 1.5% of our portfolio and maintain as much cash as possible for an important SPX low in late August. The last three years in gold resembles the basing in the SPX from 1980-1982 before the big lift off in August 1982. We're planning to remain in mostly cash and wait for extreme bargains to appear in our favorite sectors into late August. We believe that investors are too dovish on rates going into Q3 and stocks are vulnerable to an interest rate shock. The most recent plot of the combined Fed+ECB+BOJ balance sheet shows that it has been shrinking in recent weeks and is no longer a source of liquidity for the global stock market. Crude oil rebounded and tested $75.81 but could still make lows for the year in August. The USD is holding above Tuesday evening and should rally higher in the near term. Our current positions are 5% natural gas and wheat, 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX tested 4562 Tuesday which is above our 4538 price target - we are refraining from adding anymore SQQQ and SPXS until we see more confirmation of a top.  

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold pushed up to $1988 aided by  a weak USD and lower bond rates.

Stocks – The SPX tested 4562 Tuesday in the 7/16-7/19 New Moon Timing Window, but since we have exceeded our price target of 4533 we are refraining from adding more SQQQ and SPXS until we see confirmation of a top.

Gold – Gold pushed up to $1988 and looks like we could go higher. 

Silver – Silver is bouncing to $25.28 Monday evening on USD weakness.

Bonds – Bonds are making highs for the week at 127'14.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $75.82 and could move higher - the oil stocks gave us a weak bounce.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding above 100 Tuesday evening. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/17-7/19.