All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 29, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Holiday seasonality and end-of-quarter window dressing is in effect this week, but the PCE inflation report early Friday will be important. The fact that AAPL made new all-time highs supports the idea of the SPY and QQQ moving higher into next week. DO NOT TRY TO SHORT THE STOCK INDICES HERE. The price action in the SPY and QQQ from 6/15 into 6/26 appears CORRECTIVE and just a 4th wave correction, but we can also put a "bearish count" on this price action if we assume a "complex correction" is taking place. The rise of the NYSE McClellan Oscillator above the zero line on 6/27-6/29 is also bullish for higher prices. In fact, we are now looking for a possible top of the rally from March in the 7/03-7/17 time window.- CAUTION - this rally is too risky to chase - keep your money in mostly cash or just a few "bread and butter" trade setups.  Our indicators look very similar to February 2020 before the big Covid correction.  The market is pricing another Fed hike in September and the higher rates may prove to be sticky.  We still believe that lower SPX lows could be seen by August and prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG) and wheat (WEAT), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver an platinum.

6/29/23 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX and NDX traced out an EW 5-waves higher from Monday's close into early Wednesday on the hourly chart and probably confirms that we are in a 5th wave higher that could test highs next week. However, we could put a bearish "complex correction" count on this price action which allows for the possibility of bearish price action. The large Spiral Time Cluster had our eye for a possible market high from 6/23-6/27 but AAPL's run to a new all-time high today argues that an important high in the SPX and NDX could be farther out in time. Our thinking is that the QQQ rally high may be a week or so ahead in time. If you are holding Big Tech stocks, raise your trailing stops and preserve your profits. We are out of market shorts here and prefer to just watch, raise cash levels, and maybe play a few "bread and butter" trade setups with small amounts of cash. We still believe that the 20-yr cycle needs to make lower lows below SPX 3500 by August. Chairman Powell and the heads of the BOJ, BOE and ECB seemed short-term hawkish on interest rates from Portugal this week and a "hotter-than-expected" PCE number Friday morning could rattle the market. Investors are too dovish on rates going into Q3 and are vulnerable to an interest rate shock. The market is exhibiting "manic behavior" and the Option Premium Ratio is trending in a similar fashion to February 2020 just prior to the Covid correction. Our Bear Market Time Window target may need to be shifted into Q3 for the 20-yr cycle which could take us for a test of SPX 3500 by mid-August. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due by Q3 of 2023 for the stock market as the economy slips into recession. The most recent plots of the Fed balance sheet shows that it has been shrinking in recent weeks and is no longer a source of liquidity for the stock market. Crude oil appears to be coiling below $70 for a run into the 7/2-7/4 Full Moon Timing Window. The USD rallied and is holding above its Person's pivot at 103.37 Thursday evening. Our current positions are 5% natural gas and wheat, 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) Deferred US Treasury issuance could drive US rates higher this summer and drive the 20-yr cycle low to a test of SPX 3500 by mid-August - the plunging M2 money supply has us looking for a sharp turn down in the US economy soon but the investor shift from bank deposits to money market funds is putting more spendable cash into the economy. The SPX could still give us a 20% correction in 2023 as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold tested $1900 Thursday before a sharp reversal higher - cycle work allows for another leg down into next week. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into late Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX traced out an EW 5-waves higher on the hourly chart from Monday's close which is bullish and AAPL is trying to lift the market higher however, we can still put a "bearish count" on the SPX from 6/16. We sat tight for most of the day - the PCE report early Friday is key.

Gold – Gold tested important support at $1900 before bouncing hard above $1920. 

Silver – Silver is coiling for another run above $23.

Bonds – Bonds rolled over on Thursday and the 10-yr rate took out 3.86% - a multi-week high.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is coiling below $70 and could spike higher into the 7/2-7/4 Full Moon Timing Window.

Dollar Index – The USD rallied to 103.37 Thursday evening and this pressured the PM sector.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/26 and 6/30. 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 28, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPY and QQQ gave us an EW 5-waves up from Monday's close on the hourly chart into early Wednesday and confirm that a 5th wave up to test the 6/16 highs has begun. The fact that AAPL made new all-time highs confirms the trend higher.DO NOT TRY TO SHORT THE STOCK INDICES HERE. The price action in the SPY and QQQ from 6/15 into 6/26 was CORRECTIVE and just a 4th wave correction. We are now looking for the SPY and QQQ to rally and take out their highs by next week. In fact, we are now looking for a possible top of the rally from March in the 7/03-7/17 time window. CAUTION - this rally is too risky to chase - keep your money in mostly cash or just a few "bread and butter" trade setups.  Our indicators look very similar to February 2020 before the big Covid correction.  The market is pricing another Fed hike in September and the higher rates may prove to be sticky.  We still believe that lower SPX lows will be seen by August and prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG) and wheat (WEAT), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver an platinum.

6/28/23 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX and NDX traced out an EW 5-waves higher from Monday's close into early Wednesday on the hourly chart and confirms that we are in a 5th wave higher that could test highs next week. The large Spiral Time Cluster had our eye for a possible market high from 6/23-6/27 but AAPL's run to a new all-time high today argues that an important high in the SPX and NDX could be farther out in time. Our thinking is that the QQQ rally high may be a week or so ahead in time. If you are holding Big Tech stocks, raise your trailing stops and preserve your profits. We are out of market shorts here and prefer to just watch, raise cash levels, and maybe play a few "bread and butter" trade setups with small amounts of cash. We still believe that the 20-yr cycle needs to make lower lows below SPX 3500 by August. Chairman Powell and the heads of the BOJ, BOE and ECB seemed short-term hawkish on interest rates from Portugal this morning and the markets corrected into the close. Investors are too dovish on rates going into Q3 and are vulnerable to an interest rate shock. The market is exhibiting "manic behavior" and the Option Premium Ratio is trending in a similar fashion to February 2020 just prior to the Covid correction. Our Bear Market Time Window target may need to be shifted into Q3 for the 20-yr cycle which could take us for a test of SPX 3500 by mid-August. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due by Q3 of 2023 for the stock market as the economy slips into recession. The most recent plots of the Fed balance sheet shows that it has been shrinking in recent weeks and is no longer a source of liquidity for the stock market. Crude oil appears to be coiling below $70 for a run into the 7/2-7/4 Full Moon Timing Window. The USD bounced and tested its R1-resistance pivot at 103.25 Wednesday evening. Our current positions are 5% natural gas and wheat, 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) Deferred US Treasury issuance could drive US rates higher this summer and drive the 20-yr cycle low to a test of SPX 3500 by mid-August - the plunging M2 money supply has us looking for a sharp turn down in the US economy soon but the investor shift from bank deposits to money market funds is putting more spendable cash into the economy. The SPX could still give us a 20% correction in 2023 as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold is testing $1910 Wednesday evening - cycle work allows for another leg down into next week. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into late Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX traced out an EW 5-waves higher on the hourly chart from Monday's close to Wednesday and confirmed that we are in a 5th wave to test the highs from last week. We have a few SPY calls but are holding mainly cash.

Gold – Gold tested its S1-support pivot at $1910. 

Silver – Silver tested $23.09 and rolled over - silver stocks failed to lead here which is bearish.

Bonds – Bonds tested its S1-support pivot at 127'22 Wednesday evening and then bounced - rising rates could come back to haunt the stock market. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil is coiling below $70 and could spike higher into the 7/2-7/4 Full Moon Timing Window.

Dollar Index – The USD rallied to test its R1-resistance pivot at 103.23 Wednesday evening and this pressured the PM sector.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/26 and 6/30. 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 27, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX closed above its 10-dma Tuesday and confirmed that Monday was the 21-22 Trading Day low. The price action in the SPY and QQQ from 6/15 into 6/26 was CORRECTIVE and possibly just a 4th wave correction. We are now looking for the SPY and QQQ to rally and take out their highs by next week. In fact, we are now looking for a possible top of the rally from March in the 7/03-7/17 time window. CAUTION - this rally is too risky to chase - keep your money in mostly cash or just a few "bread and butter" trade setups. The QQQ traced out a minimum EW a-b-c decline into the close Monday - it feels that the SPY and QQQ could give us one more rally (a 5th wave) into the holiday weekend. The market appears to be at an inflection point here - money is flowing out of tech funds and the latest look at the Fed balance sheet has it rolling over again in QT mode. The market is pricing another Fed hike in September and the higher rates may prove to be sticky.  We still believe that lower SPX lows will be seen by August and prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG) and wheat (WEAT), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver an platinum.

6/27/23 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX and NDX traced out a minimal 3-wave correction from 6/16 into Monday and the QQQ looks like it could launch another rally attempt into the holiday weekend. The large Spiral Time Cluster has our eye for a possible market high from 6/23-6/27 and AAPL (a market unto itself)  made new all-time highs today. Our thinking, however, is that the QQQ rally high may be a week or so ahead in time. If you are holding Big Tech stocks, raise your trailing stops and preserve your profits. We are out of market shorts here and prefer to just watch and raise cash levels. We still believe that the 20-yr cycle needs to make lower lows below SPX 3500 by August. Chairman Powell sounds hawkish and is determined to hold rates higher for longer to get inflation down and other central banks are raising rates against higher-than-expected inflation numbers. Investors are too dovish on rates going into Q3 and are vulnerable to an interest rate shock. The market is exhibiting "manic behavior" and we may be close to a major inflection point in several markets. Our Bear Market Time Window target may need to be shifted into Q3 for the 20-yr cycle which could take us for a test of SPX 3500 by mid-August. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due by Q3 of 2023 for the stock market as the economy slips into recession. The most recent plots of the Fed balance sheet show that it has been shrinking in recent weeks and is no longer a source of liquidity for the stock market. Crude oil is testing its S2-support pivot at $68 Tuesday evening. The USD is holding above its Person's pivot Tuesday evening at 102.61. Our current positions are 5% natural gas and wheat, 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) Deferred US Treasury issuance could drive US rates higher this summer  and drive the 20-yr cycle low to a test of SPX 3500 by August - the plunging M2 money supply has us looking for a sharp turn down in the US economy soon but the investor shift from bank deposits to money market funds is putting more spendable cash into the economy. The SPX could still give us a 20% correction in 2023 as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold is testing $1924 Tuesday evening - cycle work allows for another leg down next week. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into late Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX  finished a C-Wave down of an EW a-b-c correction from 6/16 near Monday's close - we got long a few SPY calls but are holding mainly cash.

Gold – Gold is testing $1924 Tuesday evening. 

Silver – Silver is rallying in a corrective bounce that may have more to go. The SIL ETF (silver stocks) has given us an EW 5-waves down on the daily chart.

Bonds – Bonds tested its R1-pivot resistance at 128'20 and then reversed down to test 127'20 Tuesday evening - rising rates could come back to haunt the stock market. 

Crude Oil – Crude oil declined to test $68 Tuesday evening before bouncing.

Dollar Index – The USD is holding above its Person's pivot at 102.58 Tuesday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/26 and 6/30. 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 26, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: We got a SPX SELL SIGNAL on 6/16 and looked for a low today which is the Fibonacci 8-day step out from 6/16 and also the  21-22 Trading Day low. Since we got a second consecutive TRIN-5 buy signal (sum of the closing $TRIN for 5 consecutive days > 6.0), we sold out of our SPY puts and SQQQ calls before the close today. The QQQ traced out a minimum EW a-b-c decline into the close today - it feels that the QQQ could give us one more rally attempt into the holiday weekend.  The 21-22 trading day cycle was due to bottom on Monday for the SPX. If you are long the Big Tech guys, make sure you are raising trailing stops to protect your profits. The market appears to be at an inflection point here - money is flowing out of tech funds and the latest look at the Fed balance sheet has it rolling over again in QT mode. The market is pricing another Fed hike in September and higher rates may prove to be sticky.  We still believe that lower SPX lows will be seen by August and prefer to remain 75% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. Our current positions are 5% natural gas (UNG) and wheat (WEAT), 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver an platinum.

6/26/23 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX and NDX traced out a minimal 3-wave correction from 6/16 into Monday and the QQQ looks like it could launch another rally attempt into the holiday weekend. The large Spiral Time Cluster has our eye for a possible market high from 6/23-6/27 but we closed out our shorts today and prefer to wait for the next rally attempt before we re-establish a few puts. In fact, the last time spiral falls on 6/27, which argues that the SPX and QQQ could hold up into Monday/Tuesday. We then expect an impulsive reversal down by Monday/Tuesday which would confirm a deeper correction is in play. We still believe that the 20-yr cycle needs to make lower lows below SPX 3500 by August. Chairman Powell sounds hawkish and is determined to hold rates higher for longer to get inflation down. Investors are too dovish on rates going into Q3 and are vulnerable to an interest rate shock. The market is exhibiting "manic behavior" and we may be in the midst of some kind of important SPX turn - 5-waves down on the hourly chart from 6/16 and a 3-wave bounce would confirm more downside action is at hand. Our Bear Market Time Window target may need to be shifted into Q3 for the 20-yr cycle which could take us for a test of SPX 3500 by late July/early August. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due by Q3 of 2023 for the stock market as the economy slips into recession. The most recent plots of the Fed balance sheet show that it has been shrinking in recent weeks and is no longer a source of liquidity for the stock market. Crude oil tested $72.72 on 6/21 which may have been its New Moon high and then declined in an EW 5-wave move down to test $68 early Friday. The USD is testing 102.78 Monday night and this could pressure the PM sector down Tuesday. Our current positions are 5% natural gas and wheat, 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) Deferred US Treasury issuance could drive US rates higher this summer  and drive the 20-yr cycle low to a test of SPX 3500 by August - the plunging M2 money supply has us looking for a sharp turn down in the US economy soon. The SPX could still give us a 20% correction in 2023 as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold is testing its R1-resistance pivot at $1938 Monday evening and the GDX has outperformed gold the past few days which is bullish. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into late Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX may have finished a C-Wave down of an EW a-b-c correction from 6/16 - we closed out our few SPY puts and are waiting for a possible rally into the holiday weekend.

Gold – Gold is testing $1938 Monday evening and the GDX is trying to lead gold higher. 

Silver – Silver is testing its R1-resistancet pivot at $23.01 Monday evening and the SIL(silver stocks) may have given us an EW 5-waves down on the daily chart.

Bonds – Bonds are testing 127'20 Monday evening - rising rates could come back to haunt the stock market. 

Crude Oil – After testing $72.72, crude oil declined in 5-waves and tested $68 early Friday before bouncing to test $70 Monday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD is testing 102.63 Monday night before the durable goods report early Tuesday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/26 and 6/30. 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - June 25, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The spiral calendar crowd was looking for a major high in the SPX in the 6/23-6/26 time window but it could also be a low. The 21-22 trading day cycle is due to bottom on Monday for the SPX. It's possible that the SPX and NDX topped out early in the 6/16-6/21 New Moon Timing Window. The surprise 50-basis point rate rise by the Bank of England rate bothered US markets early and reminded them that the US Fed may turn out more hawkish than they had counted on. The SPX rallied from an early low on Friday but hen closed poorly making a lower low late in the session - that is bearish. If you are long the Big Tech guys, make sure you are raising trailing stops to protect your profits. The market appears to be at an inflection point here - money is flowing out of tech finds and the latest look at the Fed balance sheet has it rolling over again in QT mode. The market is pricing another Fed hike in September and higher rates may prove to be sticky.  We still believe that lower SPX lows will be seen by August and prefer to remain 80% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. The Option Premium Ratio sell signal on Tuesday gave us a SPX selloff into the weekend. However, our TRIN-5 indicator is now at 6.93 which and is giving us an oversold buy signal for Monday. Based on the 5-wave down pattern for the hourly QQQ and SPY, we may have already topped out the market here - at least for a 4th wave. 

6/25/23 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX and NDX traced out an EW 5-wave decline from 6/16 on the hourly charts and that is a Sell Signal. The large Spiral Time Cluster has our eye for a possible market high from 6/23-6/26. In fact, the last time spiral falls on 6/27, which argues that the SPX and QQQ could hold up into Monday/Tuesday. We then expect an impulsive reversal down by Monday/Tuesday which would confirm a deeper correction is in play. We still believe that the 20-yr cycle needs to make lower lows below SPX 3500 by August. Chairman Powell sounds hawkish and is determined to hold rates higher for longer to get inflation down. Investors are too dovish on rates going into Q3 and are vulnerable to an interest rate shock. The market is exhibiting "manic behavior" and we may be in the midst of some kind of important SPX turn - 5-waves down on the hourly chart from 6/16 and a 3-wave bounce would confirm more downside action is at hand. Our Bear Market Time Window target may need to be shifted into Q3 for the 20-yr cycle which could take us for a test of SPX 3500 by late July/early August. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due by Q3 of 2023 for the stock market as the economy slips into recession. The most recent plots of the Fed balance sheet show that it has been shrinking now in recent weeks and is no longer a source of liquidity for the stock market. Crude oil tested $72.72 on Wednesday which may have been its New Moon high and then declined in an EW 5-wave move down to test $68 early Friday. The USD is testing 102.78 Sunday night and this could pressure the PM sector down Monday. Our current positions are 5% natural gas and wheat, 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) Deferred US Treasury issuance could drive US rates higher this summer  and drive the 20-yr cycle low to a test of SPX 3500 by August - the plunging M2 money supply has us looking for a sharp turn down in the US economy soon. The SPX could still give us a 20% correction in 2023 as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold is resting on its Person's pivot at $1932 Sunday evening. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into late Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX took out its morning low late in Friday's session and this was bearish price action - Monday could give us a C-Wave down of an EW a-b-c correction or something bigger.

Gold – Gold is resting on its Person's Pivot at $1932 Sunday evening. 

Silver – Silver is testing its R1-resistancet pivot at $22.71 Sunday evening.

Bonds – Bonds are testing 128'02 Sunday evening - rising rates could come back to haunt the stock market. 

Crude Oil – After testing $72.72, crude oil declined in 5-waves and tested $68 early Friday.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 101.91 early Thursday before rallying into Sunday evening to tag 102.76.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/26 and 6/30. 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 22, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: After three days of correction, the NDX and SPX rebounded but the rallies could be correction. Our count on the hourly charts allows for a possible EW 5-waves down from 6/16 into 6/21 followed by just a 3-wave bounce for both the QQQ and SPY. It's possible that the SPY and QQQ topped out early in the 6/16-6/21 New Moon Timing Window. The surprise 50-basis point rate rise by the Bank of England rate bothered US markets early. After three days of decline the rally was tepid for both the SPY and IWM. We are also keying on the 6/23 Spiral Calendar time spiral cluster which is calling for a major high this week. If you are long the Big Tech guys, make sure you are raising trailing stops to protect your profits. Readers ask us if the SPX and NDX could make new highs this summer - the answer is yes, since the 20-yr cycle that we are watching could have bottomed last October as well as the 4-yr cycle from Fall 2018. Since the SPX has closed above its 0.618 retracement and the Fed balance sheet is doing a stealth QE which is juicing market liquidity enough for a test of the highs. However, we still believe that lower SPX lows will be seen by August and prefer to remain 80% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. The Option Premium Ratio came in again Tuesday has given us a back-to-back reading of 0.27 on Tuesday which is a Sell Signal for the market. However, our TRIN-5 indicator is now 5.75 which is close to an oversold buy reading of 6.0.  The Fed balance sheet has continued to expand since March to deal with the banking crisis and this has driven the major indices out of its sideways trading action. MASSIVE LIQUIDITY from the Fed has RAMPED the SPX and NDX higher into June - the Fed balance sheet has continued to expand under a massive stealth QE program - this has been orchestrated to combat the banking crisis.  Based on the 5-wave down pattern for the hourly QQQ and SPY, we may have already topped out the market here. The cash VIX did make a new undercut low below 13 which looks very extended to the downside to us.  Gold grinded down to test $1922 today.

6/22/23 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX and NDX traced out an EW 5-wave decline from 6/16 on the hourly charts and that is a Sell Signal. On this week centered around 6/23, we have a large cluster of time spirals landing which argues for a major high this week. In fact, the last time spiral falls on 6/27, which argues that the SPX and QQQ could hold up into Monday. We then expect an impulsive reversal down by Friday/Monday which would confirm a deeper correction is in play. We still believe that the 20-yr cycle needs to make lower lows below SPX 3500 by August. Chairman Powell sounds hawkish and is determined to hold rates higher for longer to get inflation down. Investors are too dovish on rates going into Q3 and are vulnerable to an interest rate shock. The market is exhibiting "manic behavior" and we may be close to some kind of important SPX turn this week - 5-waves down on the hourly chart and a 3-wave bounce would confirm more corrective action is at hand. Our Bear Market Time Window target may need to be shifted into Q3 for the 20-yr cycle which could take us for a test of SPX 3500 by late July/early August. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due by Q3 of 2023 for the stock market as the economy slips into recession. The most recent plots of the Fed balance sheet show that it has been shrinking now in recent weeks and is no longer a source of liquidity for the stock market. Crude oil tested $72.72 on Wednesday which may have been its New Moon high and then declined in an EW 5-wave move down which is also a bearish signal. The USD is testing its R1-resistance pivot Thursday night at 102.75 and this pressured the PM sector down today. Our current positions are 5% natural gas and wheat, 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) Deferred US Treasury issuance could drive US rates higher this summer  and drive the 20-yr cycle low to a test of SPX 3500 by August - the plunging M2 money supply has us looking for a sharp turn down in the US economy soon. The SPX could still give us a 20% correction in 2023 as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold is testing its S1-support pivot at $1919.5 Thursday evening. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into late Q2 2023.

Stocks – The QQQ and SPY reversed higher Thursday but the price action may be just a corrective move - how we trade on Friday is key.

Gold – Gold is testing $1919.5 Thursday evening after the USD spike into the evening. 

Silver – Silver tested its S1-support pivot at $22.14 Thursday evening before bouncing.

Bonds – Bonds are testing its Person's pivot at 127'07 from below Thursday evening - rising rates could come back to haunt the stock market. .

Crude Oil – After testing $72.72, crude oil declined in 5-waves and fell below $70 again.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 101.91 early Thursday before rallying into the evening to tag 102.76.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/20 and 6/23. 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 21, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The NDX and SPX continued their correction into Wednesday - our bias was that the lows on Tuesday for the SPX and NDX would hold. It's possible that the market holiday on Monday pushed our turning point day out to Wednesday. Otherwise, the extension of the correction in time might argue that the highs are already in for the SPX and NDX. But make no mistake about it, this is a MANIC market and we are in at least a 4th-wave correction. If you are long the Big Tech guys, make sure you are raising trailing stops to protect your profits. Readers ask us if the SPX and NDX could make new highs this summer - the answer is yes, since the 20-yr cycle that we are watching could have bottomed last October as well as the 4-yr cycle from Fall 2018. Since the SPX has closed above its 0.618 retracement and the Fed balance sheet is doing a stealth QE which is juicing market liquidity enough for a test of the highs. However, we still believe that lower SPX lows will be seen by August and prefer to remain 80% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. The Option Premium Ratio came in again Tuesday at 0.27, a 3-yr low, and this reflects panic buying of call options over put options which suggests that a market turn is near. The Fed balance sheet has continued to expand since March to deal with the banking crisis and this has driven the major indices out of its sideways trading action. MASSIVE LIQUIDITY from the Fed has RAMPED the SPX and NDX higher into June - the Fed balance sheet has continued to expand under a massive stealth QE program - this has been orchestrated to combat the banking crisis. Not surprisingly, a lot of this liquidity has entered the stock market to fuel the current blow off in the SPX and NDX. We may have seen a short-term SPX low today, which is in the 6/16-6/21 New Moon Timing Window, and we expect a reversal higher Thursday in the SPX and NDX. The large print in the $TRIN today at 1.71 argues for a rally day tomorrow in the SPX. Gold tested $1929 today before reversing higher to $1948.

6/21/23 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX and NDX continued to pullback into Wednesday and that may be because of the Monday holiday which shifted the bottoms out one day into the future. We expect a reversal higher in the SPX and NDX Thursday and a test of the recent highs by Friday. We've monitored "nested 1-2 wave patterns" on the NDX daily chart which argue that we could be in a 3rd wave higher in technology indices like the NDX and many are calling for new all-time highs. The 20-yr cycle may have bottomed last October as well as the 4-yr stock cycle - this could take us to new highs for highs in the NDX. However, we still believe that the 20-yr cycle needs to make lower lows below SPX 3500.  We may have seen a 4th-wave corrective low for the SPX and NDX on Wednesday. The market is exhibiting "manic behavior" and we may be close to some kind of important SPX turn. The SPX could be setting up for some kind of short-term peak by early next week since it is very overextended. Our Bear Market Time Window target may need to be shifted into Q3 for the 20-yr cycle which could take us for a test of SPX 3500 by late July/early August. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due by Q3 of 2023 for the stock market as the economy slips into recession - however, the massive stealth QE orchestrated on the Fed balance sheet to combat the banking crisis could jeopardize this timing even further. Crude oil tested $72.72 on Wednesday which may have been its New Moon high. The USD fell to 102.09 on Wednesday and helped boost the PM sector late in the session.  Our current positions are 5% natural gas and wheat, 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) Deferred US Treasury issuance could drive US rates higher this summer  and drive the 20-yr cycle low to a test of SPX 3500 by August - the plunging M2 money supply has us looking for a sharp turn down in the US economy soon. The SPX could still give us a 20% correction in 2023 as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold tested $1929 on Wednesday, a possible New Moon low, before reversing up to tag $1948. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into late Q2 2023.

Stocks – The E-mini continued to correct into the 6/16-6/21 New Moon Window - we are looking for a reversal back up on Thursday.

Gold – Gold tested $1929 today which may have been its New Moon low before a reversal up to tag  $1948. 

Silver – Silver tested $22.52 Wednesday before bouncing - is this a low in the New Moon?

Bonds – Bonds tested 128 after a successful 10-yr US bond auction.

Crude Oil – Crude oil rallied to $72.72 which may have been its New Moon high.

Dollar Index – The USD tested its R2-resistance pivot at 102.76 Tuesday and then fell to test 102.08 late Wednesday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/20 and 6/23. 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 20, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The NDX and SPX continued its correction into Tuesday and we consider this bullish price action in the short-term. The Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turning point day and we expect a correction low here and a test of the SPX and NDX highs going into Friday. But make no mistake about it, this is a MANIC market and we are close to at least a 4th-wave correction by next week or so. If you are long the Big Tech guys, make sure you are raising trailing stops to protect your profits. Readers ask us if the SPX and NDX could make new highs this summer - the answer is yes, since the 20-yr cycle that we are watching could have bottomed last October as well as the 4-yr cycle from Fall 2018. Since the SPX has closed above its 0.618 retracement and the Fed balance sheet is doing a stealth QE which is juicing market liquidity. However, we still believe that lower SPX lows will be seen by August and prefer to remain 80% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. The Option Premium Ratio came in again Tuesday at 0.27, a 3-yr low, and this reflects panic buying of call options over put options which suggests that a market turn is near. The Fed balance sheet has continued to expand since March to deal with the banking crisis and this has driven the major indices out of its sideways trading action. MASSIVE LIQUIDITY from the Fed has RAMPED the SPX and NDX higher into June - the Fed balance sheet has continued to expand under a massive stealth QE program - this has been orchestrated to combat the banking crisis. Not surprisingly, a lot of this liquidity has entered the stock market to fuel the current blow off in the SPX and NDX. We may have seen a short-term SPX low today, which is in the 6/16-6/20 New Moon Timing Window, and we expect a reversal higher tomorrow in the SPX and NDX. The large print in the $TRIN today at 2.21 argues for a rally day tomorrow in the SPX. The cash VIX took out Friday's high before a pullback to partially fill the morning gap up. The near-term /VX contract expires tomorrow and it was heavily shorted on Friday.

6/20/23 (Commentary for Tuesday) The /ES has pulled back into the 6/16-6/20 NEW Moon Timing Window and the Tuesday after a monthly expiration which is a turn window in our work. We expect a reversal higher in the SPX and NDX Thursday and a test of the recent highs by Friday. We've monitored "nested 1-2 wave patterns" on the NDX daily chart which argue that we could be in a 3rd wave higher in technology indices like the NDX and many are calling for new all-time highs. The 20-yr cycle may have bottomed last October as well as the 4-yr stock cycle - this could take us to new highs for highs in the NDX. However, we still believe that the 20-yr cycle needs to make lower lows below SPX 3500.  We may have seen a 4th-wave corrective low for the SPX and NDX on Tuesday. The market is exhibiting "manic behavior" and we may be close to some kind of important SPX turn by next week. The SPX could be setting up for some kind of short-term peak by early next week since it is very overextended. Our Bear Market Time Window target may need to be shifted into Q3 for the 20-yr cycle which could take us for a test of SPX 3500 by late July/early August. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due by Q3 of 2023 for the stock market as the economy slips into recession - however, the massive stealth QE orchestrated on the Fed balance sheet to combat the banking crisis could jeopardize this timing even further. Crude oil tested its R1-resistance pivot at $72.25 early Tuesday which is close to a "double-top" in the Monday/Tuesday New Moon window. The USD tested its R2-resistance pivot at 102.75 and that pressured the PM sector down Tuesday. Our current positions are 5% natural gas and wheat, 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) Deferred US Treasury issuance could drive US rates higher this summer  and drive the 20-yr cycle low to a test of SPX 3500 by August - the plunging M2 money supply has us looking for a sharp turn down in the US economy soon. The SPX could still give us a 20% correction in 2023 as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold blasted below its S2-support pivot and tested last week's low at $1936 as the USD spiked - this could be a New Moon low, but  a sustained break below $1955 would be bearish for a possible move below $1900. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into late Q2 2023.

Stocks – The /ES continued to correct into the Monday/Tuesday New Moon Window - we are looking for a reversal back up on Wednesday.

Gold – Gold tested last week's low at $1936 and bounced in the New Moon Timing Window - is this a low or the start of a run below $1900.. 

Silver – Silver tested $22.79 on Tuesday before bouncing - is this a low in the New Moon.

Bonds – Bonds tested its R2-resistance pivot on Tuesday and started a pullback.

Crude Oil – Crude oil rallied to gave us a double top at $72.27 on Monday/Tuesday - a rather weak spike from last week.

Dollar Index – The USD tested its R2-resistance pivot at 102.65 Tuesday and then pulled back.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/20 and 6/23. 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - June 18, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Quad-witching Friday turned out to be pretty tame as the market caught its breath from the big rallies earlier in the week. But make no mistake about it, this is a MANIC market and we are close to at least a correction by next week or so. If you are long the Big Tech guys, make sure you are raising trailing stops to protect your profits. Readers ask us if the SPX and NDX could make new highs this summer - the answer is yes, since the 20-yr cycle that we are watching could have bottomed last October as well as the 4-yr cycle from Fall 2018. However, we still believe that lower SPX lows will be seen by August and prefer to remain 80% in cash that is paying us a risk-free 5% while using small amounts of funds to trade good setups. The Option Premium Ratio came in at 0.27, a 3-yr low, and this reflects panic buying of call options over put options which suggests that a market turn is near. The Fed balance sheet has continued to expand since March to deal with the banking crisis and this has driven the major indices out of its sideways trading action. MASSIVE LIQUIDITY from the Fed has RAMPED the SPX and NDX higher into June - the Fed balance sheet has continued to expand under a massive stealth QE program - this has been orchestrated to combat the banking crisis. Not surprisingly, a lot of this liquidity has entered the stock market to fuel the current blow off in the SPX and NDX. We do expect a short-term market turn by Tuesday but trying to short this market has been dangerous and since we declined into the weekend New Moon Timing Window, this could actually give us a reversal higher by 6/20.  We got another TRIN-5 sell signal Friday and expect at least some big intra-day volatility on Tuesday. The VIX gave us an EW 5-waves up from last week's low and pulled back Thursday/Friday to fill its gap from Monday and print a higher low. 

6/18/23 (Commentary for Sunday) Quad-witching Friday came in as a quiet affair but traders aggressively bought calls near the close and gave the Option Premium Ratio a 3-yr low at 0.27. The SPX  powered to new highs for the year and tested its up channel line from the March low. We've monitored "nested 1-2 wave patterns" on the NDX daily chart which argue that we could be in a 3rd wave higher in technology indices like the NDX and many are calling for new all-time highs. The 20-yr cycle may have bottomed last October as well as the 4-yr stock cycle - this could take us to new highs for highs in the NDX. However, we still believe that the 20-yr cycle needs to make lower lows below SPX 3500.  We are looking for a short-term high by Tuesday - if you are long stocks, raise your trailing stops and protect your profits. The market is exhibiting "manic behavior" and we are close to some kind of correction if we rally into the "6/16-16/20 New Moon Timing Window. The SPX did not pullback into Fed Wednesday as expected, but we got plenty of volatility from the Fed's "hawkish pause" statements. Thursday's rally to SPX highs for the year and the New Moon Timing Window argue that we have not seen the peak yet. However, the SPX could be setting up for some kind of short-term peak by early next week since it is very overextended.  Our Bear Market Time Window target may need to be shifted into Q3 for the 20-yr cycle which could take us for a test of SPX 3500 by late July/early August. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due by Q3 of 2023 for the stock market as the economy slips into recession - however, the massive stealth QE orchestrated by the Fed to combat the banking crisis could jeopardize this timing even further. Crude oil tested its R1-resistance pivot at $71.92 on Friday - a run higher into the weekend New Moon is likely. The USD dipped down to a lower low at 102.006 on Friday and this boosted several commodities - gold, wheat, and natural gas. Our current positions are 5% natural gas and wheat, 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) Deferred US Treasury issuance could drive US rates higher this summer  and drive the 20-yr cycle low to a test of SPX 3500 by August - the plunging M2 money supply has us looking for a sharp turn down in the US economy soon. The SPX could still give us a 20% correction in 2023 as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold tested its S2 support pivot near $1942 Thursday night and is bounced to $1979 late Friday - a sustained break below $1955 would be bearish for a possible move below $1900. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into late Q2 2023.

Stocks – Quad-witching Friday was a quiet affair but traders loaded up on calls near the close. We got another TRIN-5 sell signal at the close of Friday which argues for intra-day volatility on Tuesday.

Gold – Gold tested $1979 elate Friday boosted by a weakening USD. 

Silver – Silver tested $24.28 late Friday and could see higher highs into Monday/Tuesday.

Bonds – Bonds tested its Persons pivot at 127'12 late Friday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil rallied to $71.92on Friday and may be coiling for a spike into the New Moon on Sunday.

Dollar Index – The USD dropped to 102.006 Friday and boosted commodities.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/20 and 6/23. 

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 15, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Since March, MASSIVE LIQUIDITY from the Fed has RAMPED the SPX and NDX higher into June - the Fed balance sheet has continued to expand like we are under a massive stealth QE program - this has been orchestrated to combat the banking crisis. Not surprisingly, a lot of this liquidity has entered the stock market to fuel the current blow off in the SPX and NDX. We do expect a short-term high by Tuesday but trying to short this market has been dangerous. If you are long the market here, raise your trailing stops and protect your gains. We got another TRIN-5 sell signal today and expect at least some big intra-day volatility on tomorrow's quad-witching Friday. The VIX gave us an EW 5-waves up from last week's low and pulled back today to fill its gap from Monday. In fact, on Monday, the VIX actually finished an EW 5-wave up pattern on the hourly chart - this is an early signal of a coming change in market trend. How the SPX trades on Friday is key - a pullback into quad witching expiration + the New Moon Window would be bullish for more rally into next week.

6/15/23 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX and NDX powered to new highs for the year after testing its up channel line from the March low. We've monitored "nested 1-2 wave patterns" on the NDX daily chart which argue that we could be in a 3rd wave higher in technology indices like the NDX and many are calling for new all-time highs. We are looking for a short-term high by Tuesday - if you are long stocks, raise your trailing stops and protect your profits. The market is exhibiting "manic behavior" and we are close to some kind of correction if we rally into the "6/16-16/20 New Moon Timing Window. The SPX did not pullback into Fed Wednesday as expected, but we got plenty of volatility from the Fed's "hawkish pause" statements. Thursday's rally to SPX highs for the year and the New Moon Timing Window argue that we have not seen the peak yet. However, the SPX is setting up for some kind of short-term peak by early next week since it is very overextended.  Our Bear Market Time Window target may need to be shifted into Q3 for the 20-yr cycle which could take us for a test of SPX 3500 by late July/early August. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due by Q3 of 2023 for the stock market as the economy slips into recession - however, the massive stealth QE orchestrated by the Fed to combat the banking crisis could jeopardize this timing even further. Crude oil rallied in 5-waves and tested its R1-resistance pivot at $70.34 before correcting on Wednesday and is testing $70.67 Thursday evening  - a run higher into the weekend New Moon is likely. The USD dipped down to 102.08 Thursday and this boosted several commodities - gold, wheat, and natural gas. Our current positions are 5% natural gas and wheat, 75% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) Deferred US Treasury issuance could drive US rates higher this summer  and drive the 20-yr cycle low to a test of SPX 3500 by August - the plunging M2 money supply has us looking for a sharp turn down in the US economy soon. The SPX could still give us a 20% correction in 2023 as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) Gold tested its S2 support pivot near $1942 Thursday night and is bouncing to $1968 - a sustained break below $1955 would be bearish for a possible move below $1900. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into late Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX and NDX rallied to highs for the year after the intense intra-day volatility seen on Thursday. But, we got another TRIN-5 sell signal at the close of Thursday which argues for more intra-day volatility on Friday.

Gold – Gold is testing $1968 post-Fed boosted by a weakening USD. 

Silver – Silver is testing its Persons pivot at $23.53 Thursday evening and is trying to bounce.

Bonds – Bonds are testing its Persons pivot at 127'15 Thursday night.

Crude Oil – Crude oil rallied to $70.69 and may be coiling for a spike into the New Moon on Sunday.

Dollar Index – The USD dropped to 102.08 Thursday and boosted commodities.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 6/12 and 6/16.