All Star Market Timing

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - April 30, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The QQQ rebounded from its low on Tuesday and gave us a 5-wave rally into Friday's close.  The SPX finished an EW a-b-c correction into Wednesday afternoon and also rallied in 5-waves to make a multi-week high by Friday's close. The SPX has a tendency to pull back into the May 3 Fed Day and we expect the same this week with the RSI and MACD indicators bearish diverging on Friday. We could also see some negative news on FRC (first Republic Bank) on Monday that could spook the market. How the SPX and QQQ respond to the Fed action and statement is key this week. Gold gave us a monthly reversal candle in April which is bearish - the PM sector may have started an important correction. The USD may have given us a double bottom on the daily chart - if so, the bulls need to take control. 

4/30/23 (Commentary for Sunday) The NDX and SPX gave us a minimal 5th wave rally from their lows last week and the markets are set up for a pullback on Monday.  More negative banking news from First Republic Bank could give us some downside volatility. We are are expecting an intermediate top in the SPX in the first half of May and are looking for a possible "Sell in May and go away scenario". The SPX closed the week with a test of 4169 and 5-waves up from Wednesday.  Big Tech earnings (MSFT, META and GOOGL) propelled the 5th wave higher even with a diminished overall market breadth. However, with the "rate of change" of the M2 money supply falling by -4% year over year, the US economy is now slowing fast because of the bank-led credit tightening and the stock market should feel the bite soon (the IWM is already feeling the bite as the small caps are the most sensitive to a credit tightening). Banking news could also take a turn for the worse if First Republic Bank goes under. We are looking for a potential 20% correction into late June but expect to be close to a 100% invested posture by early July at much lower levels in the SPX and NDX.  Our cycle work is calling the SPX below 3500 by late June but the bulls are still in control in the short term. We still contend that the SPX market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that could make new lows in late Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp" - the bank failures argue for a hard economic landing as banks panic and tighten lending standards. Our Bear Market Time Window target in Q2 from the 20-yr cycle  could take us for a test of SPX 3500 by late June. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due by Q3 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown should be bullish for crude oil at some point. Our current positions are 10% natural gas and wheat, 70% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The latest black swan of bank failures could drive the 20-yr cycle to a test of SPX 3500 by late June. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction in 2023 as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold gave us an all-time high monthly and end-of-quarter price in March - this is a Sign of Strength - however, gold gave us a monthly reversal candlestick down in April (a gravestone Doji) and that is very negative. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into late Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX gave us 5-waves up into late Friday and a new short-term high at 4169 so we enter Monday with expectations for a monthly pullback into Fed Wednesday - a failure of First Republic bank over the weekend could be a catalyst.

Gold – Everybody seems bullish on gold here and that concerns us - gold gave us a monthly reversal candle for April which is very bearish. How we trade post-Fed and into Friday's NFP jobs report will set the trend.  

Silver – Silver stocks tried to lead silver higher on Thursday and Friday and that is bullish.

Crude Oil – Crude oil bounced correctively to $75 today but XOM and CVX joined the SPX rally to some extent.

Dollar Index – The USD may have given us a double bottom on the daily but the bulls need to take control.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 5/3-5/5 with the Fed Day and Friday's NFP jobs report.

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The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 27, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The strong earnings from META and the revenue beat gave us a gap and go day today. As we noted yesterday, the SPX finished an EW a-b-c correction into Wednesday afternoon - had we not been in a meeting, we would have taken a small long position in the SPY because we have been looking for a 5th wave higher above 4162.57 going into the first half of May. We noticed, however, that today's rally was not supported by other leadership groups like materials, gold stocks and small cap stocks (IWM) - this is to be expected in a final 5th wave higher. Crude oil gave us a corrective looking bounce today, but the XLE gave us a rally including the uranium stocks. The USD pulled back today but gold just gave us a corrective looking bounce and the gold stocks underperformed the SPX rally.. 

4/27/23 (Commentary for Thursday) It looked to us that the SPX finished an EW a-b-c correction(4th wave?) Wednesday and started a push higher in a 5th wave for a move above 4162.57 into next week's Fed meeting - we clearly saw that develop today. We plan to embrace the old stock market axiom, "Sell in May and go away", if the SPX rally continues into next week. Big Tech earnings (MSFT, META and GOOGL) are propelling the 5th wave higher even with a diminished overall market breadth. However, with the "rate of change" of the M2 money supply falling by -4% year over year, the US economy is now slowing fast because of the bank-led credit tightening and the stock market should feel the bite soon (the IWM is already feeling the bite as the small caps are the most sensitive to a credit tightening). We are looking for a potential 20% correction into late June but expect to be close to a 100% invested posture by early July at much lower levels in the SPX and NDX.  Our cycle work is calling the SPX below 3500 by late June but the bulls are still in control in the short term. We still contend that the SPX market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that could make new lows in late Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp" - the bank failures argue for a hard economic landing as banks panic and tighten lending standards. Our Bear Market Time Window target in Q2 from the 20-yr cycle  could take us for a test of SPX 3500 by late June. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due by Q3 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown should be bullish for crude oil at some point. Our current positions are 10% natural gas and wheat, 70% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The latest black swan of bank failures could drive the 20-yr cycle to a test of SPX 3500 by late June. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction in 2023 as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold gave us an all-time high monthly and end-of-quarter price in March - this is a Sign of Strength - if gold can hold above $1900 going into the May 3 Fed statement, we could see another test of the highs. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into late Q2 2023.

Stocks – Like we surmised yesterday, the SPX finished a 4th wave correction today yesterday and is now pushing higher into a 5th wave high above 4162.57 into the first half of May where we will embrace "Sell in May and go away".  

Gold – Everybody seems bullish on gold here and that concerns us - we are looking for more corrective action this week but holding above $1900 into the May 2-3 will be bullish for post-Fed gains.

Silver – Silver stocks are trying to lead silver lower - more corrective action is possible this week.

Crude Oil – Crude oil bounced correctively to $75 today but XOM and CVX joined the SPX rally to some extent.

Dollar Index – The USD pulled back today allowing gold a corrective-looking bounce.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 4/24-4/25.

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The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 26, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: After strong earnings from MSFT, the markets opened higher on Wednesday but corrective action continued after more banking fears from First Republic Bank. However, the SPX may have finished an EW a-b-c correction (4th wave?) and we are looking for a 5th wave higher above 4162.57 before the May 2-3 Fed meeting. With the renewed banking fears Wednesday, the markets were hit again with a deflationary tone and most commodities like gold, crude oil and wheat were hit. We are still looking for more corrective action in gold and silver going into the May 2-3 Fed meeting. The USD made lows for the week at 101 before bouncing on renewed banking fears. 

4/26/23 (Commentary for Wednesday) It looks to us that the SPX finished an EW a-b-c correction(4th wave?) today and should now push higher in a 5th wave above 4162.57 before the May 2-3 Fed meeting. Even so, we will embrace the old stock market saying, "Sell in May and go away", if this view works out into next week. Big Tech earnings (MSFT, META and GOOGL) should help propel the 5th wave higher even with a diminished overall market breadth. With the "rate of change" of the M2 money supply falling by -4% year over year, the US economy is now slowing fast because of the bank led credit tightening and the stock market should feel the bite soon (the IWM is already feeling the bite as the small caps are the most sensitive to a credit tightening). We are looking for a potential 20% correction into late June but expect to be close to a 100% invested posture by early July at much lower levels in the SPX and NDX.  Our cycle work is calling the SPX below 3500 by late June but the bulls are still in control in the short term. We still contend that the SPX market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that could make new lows in late Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp" - the bank failures argue for a hard economic landing as banks panic and tighten lending standards. Our Bear Market Time Window target in Q2 from the 20-yr cycle  could take us for a test of SPX 3500 by late June. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due iby Q3 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown should be bullish for crude oil at some point, but renewed banking fears today knocked crude oil back to $74 which undercut last week's low. Our current positions are 10% natural gas and wheat, 70% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The latest black swan of bank failures could drive the 20-yr cycle to a test of SPX 3500 by late June. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction in 2023 as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold gave us an all-time high monthly and end-of-quarter price in March - this is a Sign of Strength - if gold can hold above $1900 going into the May 3 Fed statement, we could see another test of the highs. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into late Q2 2023.

Stocks – In our view, the SPX may have finished a 4th wave correction today and should push higher into a 5th wave high above 4162.57 by the May 2-3 Fed meeting - then we will embrace "Sell in May and go away".  

Gold – Everybody seems bullish on gold here and that concerns us - we are looking for more corrective action this week but holding above $1900 into the May 2-3 will be bullish for post-Fed gains.

Silver – Silver stocks are trying to lead silver lower - more corrective action is possible this week.

Crude Oil – Crude oil corrected to $74 today on renewed banking fears - we are looking for a rebound in the coming week.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 101 this morning before banking fears gave us a bounce on rising rates.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 4/24-4/25.

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The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 25, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: More banking fears from First Republic knocked the market down pre-market and we ended the session with a big down day. However, positive earnings from MSFT and GOOGL could rebound the market early Wednesday. The SPX has given us the 100 point SPX correction that we anticipated and since the Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turning point in our work, we are looking for a rebound rally early Wednesday. With the renewed banking fears the markets were hit with a deflationary tone and most commodities like gold, crude oil and wheat were hit. Gold opened the day by testing Monday's low near $1985 and then bouncing into the close - we are still looking for more corrective action going into the May 2-3 Fed meeting. Even with rates down, the USD rallied to test 101.9 and this did pressure gold early. 

4/25/23 (Commentary for Tuesday) The 100 point SPX correction from last week did hit our target and we could see a rebound start early Wednesday. After coiling for three days, the VIX and VXX had a sustained rally day after the renewed banking fears. We found the market too difficult to short here in advance of key Big Tech earnings and so just focused on scaling into more wheat (WEAT). Gold and silver rebounded from an undercut low and bounced into the close - with the universal bullishness for the PM sector, we could see more corrective action going into the May 2-3 Fed meeting. Our cycle work is calling the SPX below 3500 by late June but the bulls are still in control in the short term. We still contend that the SPX market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that could make new lows in late Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp" - the bank failures argue for a hard economic landing as banks panic and tighten lending standards. Our Bear Market Time Window target in Q2 from the 20-yr cycle  could take us for a test of SPX 3500 by late June. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown should be bullish for crude oil at some point – crude oil gave us just a corrective pullback to $77 in Friday's New Moon Timing Window which should give us a bounce. Our current positions are 10% natural gas and wheat, 70% cash and 20% physical gold, silver and platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The latest black swan of bank failures could drive the 20-yr cycle to a test of SPX 3500 by June. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction in 2023 as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold gave us an all-time high monthly and end-of-quarter price in March - this is a Sign of Strength - if gold can hold above $1900 going into the May 3 Fed statement, we could see another test of the highs. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into late Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX has given us a 100 point correction so far but Big Tech earnings this week will determine the extent of the correction. Market breadth has been deteriorating but the bulls are still in control. The SPX did make a low on today's turning point day and we are looking for a rebound early Wednesday.

Gold – Everybody seems bullish on gold here and that concerns us and the 3-wave bounce into the New Moon argues for more corrective action this week but holding above $1900 into the May 2-3 will be bullish for post-Fed gains.

Silver – Silver stocks are trying to lead silver lower - more corrective action is possible this week.

Crude Oil – Crude oil corrected to $77 last week into Friday's New Moon - we are looking for a rebound in the coming week.

Dollar Index – The USD found support near 100 last week and tested 101.9 on Tuesday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 4/24-4/25.

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The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 24, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX has corrected into the Tuesday after a  monthly option expiration which is a turning point in our work. Monday was a quiet day in the markets, but we are expecting more corrective action by late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Crude oil may have bottomed in the New Moon last week and got a boost from the Saudi production cuts. Gold bounced today after giving us a 3-wave rally into last Thursday's New Moon - we are still looking for one more corrective leg down into the May 2-3 Fed meeting. The USD bounced from support at  100 - if this bounce turns impulsive it could pressure gold for another leg down. 

4/24/23 (Commentary for Monday) We still favor more corrective action in the SPX this week as we enter the May time frame - we are watching $VIX and $VVIX closely for signals. We find the market too difficult to short here and so are looking for value areas like natural gas and wheat. Gold and silver started a correction last week and we got a 3-wave bounce into the 4/19-4/21 New Moon Timing Window for gold - this should give us another leg down this week in the PM sector. Our cycle work is calling the SPX below 3500 by June but the bulls are still in control. We still contend that the SPX market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that will make new lows in Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp" - the bank failures argue for a hard landing. Our Bear Market Time Window target in Q2 from the 20-yr cycle  could take us for a test of SPX 3500 by June. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown should be bullish for crude oil at some point – crude oil gave us just a corrective pullback to $77 in Friday's New Moon Timing Window which should give us a bounce. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The latest black swan of bank failures could drive the 20-yr cycle to a test of SPX 3500 by June. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction in 2023 as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold gave us an all-time high monthly and end-of-quarter price in March - this is a Sign of Strength - if gold can hold above $1900 going into the May 3 Fed statement, we could see another test of the highs. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX started a correction last week - we could see a 100 point SPX pullback going into the May Fed meeting - Big Tech earnings this week will determine the extent of the correction. Market breadth has been deteriorating but the bulls are still in control. However, Thursday did give us a lower high and a lower low day in the SPX.

Gold – Everybody seems bullish on gold here and that concerns us and the 3-wave bounce into the New Moon argues for another leg down this week. 

Silver – Silver stocks are trying to lead silver lower - another leg down is possible this week.

Crude Oil – Crude oil corrected to $77 last week into Friday's New Moon - we are looking for a rebound in the coming week.

Dollar Index – The USD found support near 100 and could bounce more this week.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 4/24-4/25.

.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - April 23, 2023

Sorry for the extended absence. We have been traveling extensively to remote places and many did not have internet access. 

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX started some kind of correction last week as we entered monthly option expiration week. Many of the major indices showed MACD divergences and on Thursday we actually has a lower low and lower high day for the SPX. Even so, the bulls are still in control, but as the $VVIX/$VIX ratio continues to spike, we expect more corrective action in the coming week. A correction of 100 SPX points would not surprise us. Both the SPX and gold gave us corrective action going into the 4/19-4/21 New Moon Timing Window which lasted into expiration weekend. The spike on the $VVIX is from traders adding to June volatility calls for hedging. For the record, we still do not believe that the SPX has started a "a new bull market" and still believe that there is a chance of testing the October lows near SPX 3500 in the May/June timeframe. We believe that the bank failures are suggestive of a weaker economy and weaker stock market in Q2 2023 because bank lending standards are being tightened in real estate and auto lending. In our view the SPX has now started to price in a "harder economic landing" and we continue to remain cautious  - there will be a much better opportunity to buy the SPX in May/June based on our cycle count.  One special trade that we are working involves a non-leveraged scale-in trade for UNG - we added a position in UNG in March with natural gas < $2.0 and we also favor wheat (WEAT) at this time. Our portfolio is now about 70% cash, 10% natural gas and wheat, and 20% in physical gold, silver and platinum. 

4/23/23 (Commentary for Sunday) We still favor more corrective action in the SPX this week as we enter the May time frame - we are watching $VIX and $VVIX closely for signals. We find the market too difficult to short here and so are looking for value areas like natural gas and wheat. Gold and silver started a correction last week and we got a 3-wave bounce into the 4/19-4/21 New Moon Timing Window for gold - this should give us another leg down this week in the PM sector. Our cycle work is calling the SPX below 3500 by June but the bulls are still in control. We still contend that the SPX market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that will make new lows in Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp" - the bank failures argue for a hard landing. Our Bear Market Time Window target in Q2 from the 20-yr cycle  could take us for a test of SPX 3500 by June. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown should be bullish for crude oil at some point – crude oil gave us just a corrective pullback to $77 on Friday. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The latest black swan of bank failures could drive the 20-yr cycle to a test of SPX 3500 by June. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction in 2023 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold gave us an all-time high monthly and end-of-quarter price in March - this is a Sign of Strength - if gold can hold above $1900 going into the May 3 Fed statement, we could see another test of the highs. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX started a correction last week - we could see a 100 point SPX pullback going into the May Fed meeting. Market breadth has been deteriorating but the bulls are still in control. However, Thursday did give us a lower high and a lower low day in the SPX.

Gold – Everybody seems bullish on gold here and that concerns us and the 3-wave bounce into the New Moon argues for another leg down this week. 

Silver – Silver stocks are trying to lead silver lower - another leg down is possible this week.

Crude Oil – Crude oil corrected to $77 last week into Friday's New Moon - we are looking for a rebound in the coming week.

Dollar Index – The USD found support near 100 and could bounce more this week.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 4/24-4/25.

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