All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 30, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX continued its end of quarter blow off and only the financials were down as a group. The VIX which rallied for most of the day is warning us that the party is almost over. Even though we came close to a 90% advancing day yesterday, the majority of the NDX 100 rally has come from Big Tech - AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, META, and GOOGL. We believe that the bank failures are suggestive of a weaker economy and weaker stock market in Q2 2023 - a break below SPX 3200 is possible. In our view the SPX has now started to price in a "harder economic landing" and we continue to remain cautious and raise our cash levels - there will be a much better opportunity to buy the SPX in May/June based on our cycle count.  One special trade that we are working involves a non-leveraged scale-in trade for UNG - we added a position in UNG today with nat gas < $2.0 and will add more at nat gas ~$1.77 ....seasonals are at a low here and should pick up into June/July. 

3/30/23 (Commentary for Thursday) The end of quarter rally in stocks continued today as the price action continued to pull in money. Crude oil prices firmed around $75 and  favorites XOM and CVX continued to rally. We have turned cautious and started raising more cash -  our cycle work is calling the SPX below 3000 by May/June and we plan to take advantage then. We still contend that the SPX market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that will make new lows in Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp" - the bank failures argue for a hard landing. Our Bear Market Time Window target in Q2 from the 20-yr cycle  could take us below SPX 3000. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown should be bullish for crude oil at some point – after tagging $75 we like buying pullbacks to $70 if seen. We currently hold 67% cash, 10% VXX, 3% UNG and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The latest black swan of bank failures could drive the 20-yr cycle to new bear market lows below 3000. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that could peak in March. However, we still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into Q2 2023.

Stocks – We view today's action as an "end of quarter blow off" that is ending. We are looking for the SPX to undercut 3800 in April.  However, the tape is very news driven and things could still chop around.

Gold – Gold poked above $2000 again as traders bought large amounts of GLD calls. Sentiment is extremely bullish for gold here.

Silver – Silver stocks are leading silver higher as traders hope for a run to $30.

Crude Oil – Crude oil firmed at $75 - new money is coming .back to the oil sector.

Dollar Index – The USD gave us a shallow 3-wave pullback and looks to go higher.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 3/26-3/27

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The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 28, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX ended its 3-day advance today as the 10-yr US rate rallied and pressured tech stocks. Rising crude oil prices continued to boost XOM and CVX. We believe that the bank failures are suggestive of a weaker economy and weaker stock market in Q2 2023 - a break below SPX 3200 is possible. In our view the SPX has now started to price in a "harder economic landing" and we continue to remain cautious and raise our cash levels - there will be a much better opportunity to buy the SPX in May/June based on our cycle count.  The flight to quality in tech stocks like MSFT and NVDA remains suspicious to us. 

3/28/23 (Commentary for Tuesday) Rising US rates pressured tech stocks down and ended the 3-day SPX advance. Bounces in oil favorites XOM and CVX and helped market breath expand beyond the banking sector as crude oil remained firm. We have turned cautious and started raising more cash -  our cycle work is calling the SPX below 3000 by May/June and we plan to take advantage then. We still contend that the SPX market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that will make new lows in Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp" - the bank failures argue for a hard landing. Our Bear Market Time Window target in Q2 from the 20-yr cycle  could take us below SPX 3000. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown should be bullish for crude oil at some point – after tagging $64 we like buying pullbacks below $70 if seen. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% VXX and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The latest black swan of bank failures could drive the 20-yr cycle to new bear market lows below 3000. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that could peak in March. However, we still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into Q2 2023.

Stocks – We view today's action as more market chop  that ended the 3-day rally and are looking for the SPX to undercut 3800 in April.  However, the tape is very news driven and things could still chop around.

Gold – Gold rallied into today's Comex gold expiration and the GDX tested historic resistance at 32.32.

Silver – Silver stocks are leading silver higher.

Crude Oil – Crude oil held $73 - the XLE confirmed an important low.

Dollar Index – The USD gave us a shallow 3-wave pullback and looks to go higher.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 3/26-3/27

.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 27, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The futures were up big early Monday on news that the SVB bank was bought.  Worries of spreading bank contagion were thwarted at least for Monday and today looked like a relief rally with oversold bounces from banks. We believe that the bank failures are suggestive of a weaker economy and weaker stock market in Q2 2023 - a break below SPX 3200 is possible. The energy sector was a leader on Monday with crude oil testing $73 and oil stocks like XOM and CVX  got a nice bid. In our view the SPX has now started to price in a "harder economic landing" and we continue to remain cautious and raise our cash levels - there will be a much better opportunity to buy the SPX in May/June based on our cycle count.  The flight to quality in tech stocks like MSFT and NVDA remains suspicious to us. 

3/27/23 (Commentary for Monday) A bid for the assets of SVB got the stock futures flying early with rebounds in the hard-pressed bank sector leading the way. Crude oil popping to $73 generated  nice bounces in oil favorites XOM and CVX and helped market breath expand beyond the banking sector. We have turned cautious and started raising more cash - our cycle work is calling the SPX below 3000 by May/June and we plan to take advantage then. We still contend that the SPX market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that will make new lows in Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp" - the bank failures argue for a hard landing. Our Bear Market Time Window target in Q2 from the 20-yr cycle  could take us below SPX 3000. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown should be bullish for crude oil at some point – after tagging $64 we like buying pullbacks below $70 if seen. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% VXX and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The latest black swan of bank failures could drive the 20-yr cycle to new bear market lows below 3000. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that could peak in March. However, we still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into Q2 2023.

Stocks – We view today's action as a relief rally and are looking for the SPX to undercut 3800 in April.  However, the tape is very news driven and things could still chop around.

Gold – Gold gave us an early pullback but gold stocks held firm.

Silver – Silver stocks also firmed up after early weakness.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $73 late - the XLE confirmed an important low.

Dollar Index – The USD gave us a shallow 3-wave pullback and looks to go higher.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 3/26-3/27

.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - March 26, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The futures were down hard early Friday as financial contagion appeared to spread to Deucthe Bank after its CDS were bid up.  However, once again the markets battled back into the close with the SPX taking out Thursday's close. We believe that the bank failures are suggestive of a weaker economy and weaker stock market in Q2 2023. Crude oil tested $67.0 before bouncing back but the Biden administration is not buying back yet. In our view the SPX has now started to price in a "harder economic landing" and we continue to remain cautious and raise our cash levels - there will be a much better opportunity to buy the SPX in May/June based on our cycle count.  The flight to quality in tech stocks like MSFT and NVDA remains suspicious to us. 

3/26/23 (Commentary for Sunday) We had early declines on Friday as traders believed that Deutche Bank was set up to topple but the stock held above 9.  Our bias is that the SPX may be close to breaking down to a Q2 low and last week's test of the 200-dma may be a setup for a reversal down. We have turned cautious and started raising more cash - our cycle work is calling the SPX below 3000 by May/June and we plan to take advantage then. We still contend that the SPX market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that will make new lows in Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp" - the bank failures argue for a hard landing. Our Bear Market Time Window target in Q2 from the 20-yr cycle  could take us below SPX 3000. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown should be bullish for crude oil at some point – after tagging $64 we like buying pullbacks below $70 if seen. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% VXX and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The latest black swan of bank failures could drive the 20-yr cycle to new bear market lows below 3000. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that could peak in March. However, we still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into Q2 2023.

Stocks – With the bank failures, we are looking for the SPX to undercut 3800 soon even as it tested its 200-dma Tuesday and closed down hard after Chairman Powell on Wednesday.

Gold – As the SPX closed at the hihs for the day, gold pulled back to $1981.

Silver – Silver did 5-waves down to $23.22 before bouncing.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $67 before bouncing to $69 - we may have made a short-term low.

Dollar Index – The USD rallied in 5-waves to 103.4 near the close.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 3/26-3/27

.

The Daily JDV market Timer - March 23, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: After the slam down close on Fed Day, the SPX opened higher and tested 4000 at 11:00  EST PM before rolling over. What looked to be an inside day morphed into the SPX taking out yesterday's low. We believe that the bank failures are suggestive of a weaker economy and weaker stock market in Q2 2023. Crude oil tested $70.0 and may have made a short-term low. In our view the SPX has now started to price in a "harder economic landing" and we continue to remain cautious and continue to raise our cash levels - there will be a much better opportunity to buy the SPX in May/June based on our cycle count.  The flight to quality in tech stocks like MSFT and NVDA remains suspicious to us. 

3/23/23 (Commentary for Thursday) Another morning rally and then another reversal down on the /ES but the DJIA and NDX managed to close positive. Our bias is that the SPX may be close to breaking down to a Q2 low and yesterday's test of the 200-dma may be a setup for a reversal down. We have turned cautious and started raising more cash - our cycle work is calling the SPX below 3000 by May/June and we plan to take advantage then. We still contend that the SPX market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that will make new lows in Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp" - the bank failures argue for a hard landing. Our Bear Market Time Window target in Q2 from the 20-yr cycle  could take us below SPX 3000. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown should be bullish for crude oil at some point – after tagging $64 we like buying pullbacks below $70 if seen. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% VXX and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The latest black swan of bank failures could drive the 20-yr cycle to new bear market lows below 3000. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that could peak in March. However, we still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into Q2 2023.

Stocks – With the bank failures, we are looking for the SPX to undercut 3800 soon even as it tested its 200-dma Tuesday and closed down hard after Chairman Powell today.

Gold – As the SPX closed at the lows for the day, gold rallied up to $2005.

Silver – Silver broke out to $23.24.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $71,67  - we may have made a short-term low.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 102,6 late in the day as gold spiked into the close.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 3/21-3/22

.

The Daily JDV market Timer - March 22, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The Fed raised rates 0.25 and talked that maintaining bank stability is a priority. The SPX was extremely volatile and both took out yesterday's high and then undercut the lows going into the close. view is that the Fed will raise 25 bps and talk about bank contagion. The futures opened weak only to finish at highs for the day as we approach the Fed meeting. We believe that the bank failures are suggestive of a weaker economy and weaker stock market in Q2 2023. Crude oil tested $70.0 and may have made a short-term low. In our view the SPX has now started to price in a "harder economic landing" and we continue to remain cautious and continue to raise our cash levels - there will be a much better opportunity to buy the SPX in May/June based on our cycle count.  The flight to quality in tech stocks like MSFT and NVDA remains suspicious to us. 

3/22/23 (Commentary for Wednesday) The  Fed raised rates 25 bps and talked about maintaining the stability of the banking system. Our bias is that the SPX may be close to breaking down to a Q2 low and yesterday's test of the 200-dma may be a setup for a reversal down. We have turned cautious and started raising more cash - our cycle work is calling the SPX below 3000 by May/June and we plan to take advantage then. We still contend that the SPX market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that will make new lows in Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp" - the bank failures argue for a hard landing. Our Bear Market Time Window target in Q2 from the 20-yr cycle  could take us below SPX 3000. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown should be bullish for crude oil at some point – after tagging $64 we like buying pullbacks below $70 if seen. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% VXX and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The latest black swan of bank failures could drive the 20-yr cycle to new bear market lows below 3000. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that could peak in March. However, we still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into Q2 2023.

Stocks – With the bank failures, we are looking for the SPX to undercut 3800 soon even as it tested its 200-dma yesterday and closed down hard after Chairman Powell today.

Gold – As the SPX closed at the lows for the day, gold rallied up to $1972

Silver – Silver broke out to $23.24.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $70  - we may have made a short-term low.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 102 late in the day as gold spiked into the close.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 3/21-3/22

.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 21, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX continued to rally into Fed Day and closed over 4000 as it tested the 200-dma near the close. Our view is that the Fed will raise 25 bps and talk about bank contagion. The futures opened weak only to finish at highs for the day as we approach the Fed meeting. We believe that the bank failures are suggestive of a weaker economy and weaker stock market in Q2 2023. Crude oil tested $69.5 and may have made a short-term low. In our view the SPX has now started to price in a "harder economic landing" and we continue to remain cautious and continue to raise our cash levels - there will be a much better opportunity to buy the SPX in May/June based on our cycle count.  The flight to quality in tech stocks like MSFT and NVDA remains suspicious to us. 

3/21/23 (Commentary for Tuesday) The move by the ECB to raise 0.50 on Friday puts our Fed in an interesting situation and the market expects a 0,25 rise this week. Our bias is that the SPX may be close to breaking down to a Q2 low and today's test of the 200-dma may be a setup for a reversal down. We have turned cautious and started raising more cash - our cycle work is calling the SPX below 3000. by May/June and we plan to take advantage then. We still contend that the SPX market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that will make new lows in Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp" - the bank failures argue for a hard landing. Our Bear Market Time Window target in Q2 from the 20-yr cycle  could take us below SPX 3000. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown should be bullish for crude oil at some point – maybe after tagging $64 today we like buying pullbacks below $70 if seen. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% VXX and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The latest black swan of bank failures could drive the 20-yr cycle to new bear market lows below 3000. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that could peak in March. However, we still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into Q2 2023.

Stocks – With the bank failures, we are looking for the SPX to undercut 3800 soon even as it tested its 200-dma today.

Gold – Gold broke above $2000 before correcting yesterday and today pulled back some more.

Silver – Silver is building a triple top near $22.85.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $69.5  - we may have made a short-term low.

Dollar Index – The USD pulled back after the 0.5 raise by the ECB and tested 103.275.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 3/21-3/22

.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - March 20, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: US banking contagion spread to Europe  Monday as CWS was taken over. The futures opened weak only to finish at highs for the day as we approach the Fed meeting. We believe that the bank failures are suggestive of a weaker economy and weaker stock market in Q2 2023. in May/June for the SPX and it started with the bank failure for SVB last week that spooked the markets into the close on Friday, March 10.  One of our alert readers swooped in to buy SCHW near $45 on the 3/13 first hour low and took advantage of the flight to quality in the Charles Schwab enterprise. Our view is that the current run of bank failures will lead us to SPX < 3000 by May/June. Crude oil broke to lows for the year and tagged $64 today. but did touch some buy points from the Biden Admtoday inistration to refill the SPR.  In our view the SPX has now started to price in a "harder economic landing" and we continue to remain cautious and continue to raise our cash levels - there will be a much better opportunity to buy the SPX in May/June based on our cycle count.  The flight to quality in tech stocks like MSFT and NVDA remains suspicious to us. 

3/20/23 (Commentary for Monday) The move by the ECB to raise 0.50 on Friday puts our Fed in an interesting situation and the market expects a 0,25 rise this week. Our bias is that the SPX may be breaking down to a Q2 low. We have turned cautious and started raising more cash - our cycle work is calling the SPX much below 3000. by May/June and we plan to take advantage then. We still contend that the SPX market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that will make new lows in Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp" - the bank failures argue for a hard landing. Our Bear Market Time Window target in Q2 from the 20-yr cycle  could take us below SPX 3000. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown should be bullish for crude oil at some point – maybe after tagging $64 today we like buying pullbacks below $70 if seen. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% VXX and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The latest black swan of bank failures could drive the 20-yr cycle to new bear market lows below 3000. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that could peak in March. However, we still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into Q2 2023.

Stocks – With the bank failures, we are looking for the SPX to undercut 3800 soon.

Gold – Gold broke above $2000 before correcting....did we put in a short-term high today?

Silver – Silver is building a triple top near $22.85.

Crude Oil – Crude oil pulled back below $70 and tested $64 - we may be close to a short-term low.

Dollar Index – The USD pulled back after the 0.5 raise by the ECB and tested 103.275.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 3/21-3/22

.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - March 19, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: We were looking for a black swan event to kick in the 20-year low that should bottom in May/June for the SPX and it started with the bank failure for SVB last week that spooked the markets into the close on Friday, March 10.  One of our alert readers swooped in to buy SCHW near $45 on Monday's first hour low and took advantage of the flight to quality in the Charles Schwab enterprise. Our view is that the current run of bank failures will lead us to SPX < 3000 into May/June. Crude oil broke below $70 this week but did touch some buy points from the Biden Administration to refill the SPR.  In our view the SPX has now started to price in a "harder economic landing" and we continue to remain cautious and continue to raise our cash levels - there will be a much better opportunity to buy the SPX in May/June based on our cycle count.  The flight to quality in tech stocks like MSFT and NVDA remains suspicious to us. 

3/19/23 (Commentary for Sunday) The move by the ECB to raise 0.50 on Friday puts our Fed in an interesting situation and the market expects a 0,25 rise this week. Our bias is that the SPX may be breaking down to a Q2 low. We have turned cautious and started raising more cash - our cycle work is calling the SPX much low below 3000. by May/June and we plan to take advantage then. We still contend that the SPX market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that will make new lows in Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp" - the bank failures argue for a hard landing. Our Bear Market Time Window target in Q2 from the 20-yr cycle  could take us below SPX 3000. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown should be bullish for crude oil at some point – we like buying pullbacks below $70 if seen. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% VXX and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The latest black swan of bank failures could drive the 20-yr cycle to new bear market lows below 3000. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. 

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that could peak in March. However, we still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down one more time into Q2 2023.

Stocks – With the bank failures, we are looking for the SPX to undercut 3800 soon.

Gold – Gold shot up and tested $1993 on Friday.

Silver – Silver tested highs for the week at $22.65 on Friday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil pulled back below $70 and tested $65.

Dollar Index – The USD pulled back after the 0.5 raise by the ECB.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 3/21-3/22

.