All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 9, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX made a first hour high today and sold off into the close. More important, the AAII Sentiment Survey showed a huge shift in bull/bear sentiment. The AAII bullish sentiment came out the highest since December 2021 at 37.5% and the bearish sentiment came in the lowest in many weeks at 25.0%.Courtesy of the recent AI bubble, the excess bearish sentiment in early January has been reversed to the bullish side. Since 2/2, the US 10-yr govt rate has risen from 3.34% to 3.85% and today a bad 30-yr Treasury auction sent the 10-yr US rate back up to test the highs. The tech stocks have barely noticed so far. Our short-term bias is that the SPX can hold up into the CPI report on 2/14 but will get a negative surprise which will knock both the SPX and gold down hard. In our view the SPX has already priced in a "soft economic landing" and we continue to remain cautious and continue to raise our cash levels - there will be a much better opportunity to buy the SPX in May/June based on our cycle count.  Monthly and weekly Fibonacci step outs from the 1/4/22 SPX high point to the first half of February as a reversal time window and WE ARE THERE. However, the chart of the SPX still has the possibility of making a higher high into next week. Our intermediate-term bias is that the SPX rally from 10/13 is a Bear Market Rally and our Time Window target is now into the first half of February. One price target for this Bear Market rally was the 50% retracement area around 4150 (achieved 2/2) or the 61.8% retracement around 4300. The NDX has been leading the market higher and has outperformed both the SPX and DJIA - investors have moved from the industrial stocks back to chasing technology stocks again like the AI stocks.  Crude oil pulled back to its S1-pivot support at $76.51 before bouncing back to its Person's pivot at $77.72. The USD finished its EW a-b-c correction and spiked higher knocking gold down to $1865. 

2/09/23 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX is in the Time Window - the first half of February - for a major turn and we have a SELL SIGNAL in our Option Premium Ratio and now after today, we have an important bull/bear sentiment inversion from the AAII sentiment survey. We have turned cautious and started raising more cash - our cycle work is calling the SPX much lower by May/June and we plan to take advantage then. The bearish market sentiment seen in early January has been converted to the bullish side and the AI-technology bubble has traders chasing tech stocks again despite their near-term challenges. The tech stocks have ignored the move up in the 10-yr US rate the past five trading days and is vulnerable to a hotter than expected CPI report next Tuesday that could slam down the SPX and gold.  We still contend that the market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that will make new lows in Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp". Our Bear Market Time Window target is the first half of February which included a Fed Day on 2/1, AAPL and AMZN earnings on 2/2, a NFP jobs report on 2/3 and a Full Moon on 2/5.  We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown should be bullish for crude oil at some point – we like buying pullbacks below $70 if seen. The USD made a low at 100.8 on 2/1 and then rallied in 5-waves to test 103.96 before correcting in an EW a-b-c correction that ended today with a spike higher. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% uranium stocks and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX rallied in an EW 5-wave pattern from 12/22 into 1/23 - the 3-wave pullback into 1/25 was bullish for a rally to 4195 during  Fed Week. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to the first half of February for an important turn - this should be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that should peak in the first half of February. However, we still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX made a first hour high today before selling off into the close. Still, the SPX could still mount another rally attempt that could eclipse 4195.

Gold – Gold tested $1900 before dropping hard on a USD spike to $1864.

Silver – Silver is testing $21.85 Thursday evening.

Bonds - Bonds tested a lower low today at 127'25.

Crude Oil – Crude oil pulled back to test its S1-oivot at $76.51 before bouncing to test its Person's pivot.

Dollar Index – The USD finished its EW a-b-c correction early Thursday and spiked higher to derail the PM sector.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 2/6-2/7 Full Moon Timing Window.

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The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 8, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX came back to take back the post-Powell rally from Tuesday. Even the AI-crazed tech stocks pulled back today especially Alphabet which had a bad public demo with its Bard AI app. In the past five trading days, the US 10-yr govt rate has risen from 3.34% to 3.69% and the tech stocks have barely noticed. Our short-term bias is that the SPX can hold up into the CPI report on 2/14 but will get a negative surprise which will knock both the SPX and gold down hard. In our view the SPX has already priced in a "soft economic landing" and we continue to remain cautious and continue to raise our cash levels - there will be a much better opportunity to buy the SPX in May/June based on our cycle count.  Monthly and weekly Fibonacci step outs from the 1/4/22 SPX high point to the first half of February as a reversal time window. Our intermediate-term bias is that the SPX rally from 10/13 is a Bear Market Rally and our Time Window target is now into the first half of February. One price target for this Bear Market rally was the 50%  retracement area around 4150 (achieved 2/2) or the 61.8% retracement around 4300. The NDX has been leading the market higher and has outperformed both the SPX and DJIA - investors have moved from the industrial stocks back to chasing technology stocks again like the AI stocks.  Crude oil rallied to $78.62 as it continues to bounce from the its Full Moon low. Gold has corrected sideways from Friday and got a bounce to $1891 Wednesday night. The USD traced out a clear 5-waves higher from 100.8 to 103.96 yesterday and is doing an EW a-b-c correction.

2/08/23 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX is in the Time Window - the first half of February - for a major turn and we have a SELL SIGNAL in our Option Premium Ratio and now after today, we have an EW 5-wave down pattern on the SPX. We have turned cautious and started raising more cash - our cycle work is calling the SPX much lower by May/June and we plan to take advantage then. The bearish market sentiment seen in early January has been converted to the bullish side and the AI-technology bubble has traders chasing tech stocks again despite their near-term challenges. The tech stocks have ignored the move up in the 10-yr US rate the past five trading days and is vulnerable to a hotter than expected CPI report next Tuesday that could slam down the SPX and gold.  We still contend that the market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that will make new lows in Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp". Our Bear Market Time Window target is the first half of February which included a Fed Day on Wednesday, AAPL and AMZN earnings on Thursday, a NFP jobs report on Friday and a Full Moon on Sunday.  We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown is bullish for crude oil – we like buying pullbacks below $70 if seen. The USD made a low at 100.8 on 2/1 and then rallied in 5-waves to test 103.96 before correcting. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% uranium stocks and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX rallied in an EW 5-wave pattern from 12/22 into 1/23 - the 3-wave pullback into 1/25 was bullish for a rally to 4195 during  Fed Week. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to the first half of February for an important turn - this should be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that should peak in the first half of February. However, we still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX took back its post-Powell gains this afternoon as we played it conservatively and raised more cash. Our short term bias is for a hot CPI report next Tuesday that could slam down the SPX and gold.

Gold – Gold corrected sideways into Tuesday and and is testing $1891 into Wednesday evening.

Silver – Silver is testing $22.40 into Wednesday evening.

Bonds - Bonds tested 128 and then gave us a 3-wave bounce today.

Crude Oil – Crude oil bounced more today to test $78.62.

Dollar Index – The USD traced out an EW 5-wave rally to 103.96 Tuesday afternoon before correcting.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 2/6-2/7 Full Moon Timing Window.

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The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 7, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX showed a lot of volatility during Powell's interview today but ended the day higher. Once again the tech stocks, fed by a growing AI-bubble, led the way. However, during the day, the SPX did print an EW 5-wave decline from Thursday into today's low and that is a SELL SIGNAL for us. In our view the SPX has already priced in a "soft economic landing" and we continue to remain cautious and continue to raise our cash levels - there could be a much better opportunity to buy the SPX in May/June based on our cycle count. The much hotter than expected NFP jobs report gave traders a reason to sell on Friday and Monday but the Fed speak today made the market happy.  Monthly and weekly Fibonacci step outs from the 1/4/22 SPX high point to the first half of February as a reversal time window. Our intermediate-term bias is that the SPX rally from 10/13 is a Bear Market Rally and our Time Window target is now into the first half of February. Our price target for this Bear Market rally is the 50%  retracement area around 4150 (achieved Thursday) or the 61.8% retracement around 4300. The NDX has been leading the market higher and has outperformed both the SPX and DJIA - investors have moved from the industrial stocks back to chasing technology stocks again like the AI stocks.  Crude oil rallied to $77.60 as crude oil continues to bounce from the its Full Moon low. Gold has corrected sideways from Friday and got a bounce to $1884 after Powell. The USD traced out a clear 5-waves higher from 100.8 to 103.96 this afternoon before a 3-wave decline.

2/07/23 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX is in the Time Window - the first half of February - for a major turn and we have a SELL SIGNAL in our Option Premium Ratio and now after today, we have an EW 5-wave down pattern on the SPX. We have turned cautious and started raising more cash - our cycle work is calling the SPX much lower by May/June and we plan to take advantage then. The bearish market sentiment seen in early January has been converted to the bullish side and the AI-technology bubble has traders chasing tech stocks again despite their near-term challenges.  We still contend that the market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that will make new lows in Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp". Our Bear Market Time Window target is the first half of February which included a Fed Day on Wednesday, AAPL and AMZN earnings on Thursday, a NFP jobs report on Friday and a Full Moon on Sunday.  We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown is bullish for crude oil – we like buying pullbacks below $70 if seen. The USD made a low at 100.8 on 2/1 and then rallied in 5-waves to test 103.96 this afternoon. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% uranium stocks and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX rallied in an EW 5-wave pattern from 12/22 into 1/23 - the 3-wave pullback into 1/25 was bullish for a rally to 4195 during  Fed Week. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to the first half of February for an important turn - this should be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that should peak in the first half of February. However, we still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX gave us volatility during Powell's interview but the trading day did end up as a big rally day. However, the SPX did trade out an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart which is another SELL SIGNAL for us - we are playing it conservatively here and raising more cash.

Gold – Gold corrected sideways into Tuesday and and is testing $1886 into the evening.

Silver – Silver is testing $22.06 into Tuesday evening.

Bonds - Bonds gave us 5-waves down to test 128'05 Tuesday evening..

Crude Oil – Crude oil bounced today to test $77.47.

Dollar Index – The USD traced out an EW 5-wave rally to 103.96 Tuesday afternoon.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 2/6-2/7 Full Moon Timing Window.

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The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 6, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX continued to correct Monday into Powell's speech on Tuesday. Will Chairman Powell use this opportunity to ratchet up his hawkishness after the much hotter than expected NFP jobs report on Friday? The much hotter than expected NFP jobs report gave traders a reason to sell on Friday and Monday.  Monthly and weekly Fibonacci step outs from the 1/4/22 SPX high point to the first half of February as a reversal time window. Our intermediate-term bias is that the SPX rally from 10/13 is a Bear Market Rally and our Time Window target is now into the first half of February. Our price target for this Bear Market rally is the 50%  retracement area around 4150 (achieved Thursday) or the 61.8% retracement around 4300. The NDX has been leading the market higher and has outperformed both the SPX and DJIA - investors have moved from the industrial stocks back to chasing technology stocks again like the AI stocks like CGI.AI.  Crude oil tested $72.25, a 52-wk low, before bouncing in today's Full Moon Timing Window and tagging $74.69. Gold has corrected sideways from Friday and looks ready for another leg lower to $1807 or so. The USD tested 103.6 Monday going into Powell's speech on Tuesday.

2/06/23 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX is in the Time Window - the first half of February - for a major turn and we have a SELL SIGNAL in our Option Premium Ratio. We will need to see an EW 5-wave decline on the hourly chart for a confirmation signal - nothing yet.  We still contend that the market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that will make new lows in Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp". Our Bear Market Time Window target is the first half of February which included a Fed Day on Wednesday, AAPL and AMZN earnings on Thursday, a NFP jobs report on Friday and a Full Moon on Sunday.  We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown is bullish for crude oil – we like buying pullbacks below $70 if seen. The USD made a low at 100.8 on Wednesday night and bounced to test 103.6 on Monday. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% uranium stocks and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX rallied in an EW 5-wave pattern from 12/22 into 1/23 - the 3-wave pullback into 1/25 was bullish for more rally into Fed Week. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to the first half of February for an important turn - this should be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that should peak in the first half of February. However, we still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX tested 4195 on Thursday and started a correction into the 2/5-2/6 Full Moon Timing Window - we have a Major Sell Signal on our Option Premium Ratio and our playing it conservatively here. Powell's speech tomorrow provides the market a catalyst.

Gold – Gold just corrected sideways into Monday and could see another leg down.

Silver – Silver gave us 5-waves down to $22.17 Monday.

Bonds - Bonds gave us 5-waves down on the hourly into Monday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil pulled back to test $72.25 on Monday's Full Moon Timing Window and bounced to $74.69.

Dollar Index – The USD rebounded to 103.6 on Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 2/6-2/7 Full Moon Timing Window.

.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - February 5, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us a high for the week on Thursday at 4195 and then started a correction. The much hotter than expected NFP jobs report gave traders a reason to sell on Friday.  However, our Option Premium Ratio indicator has given us a major sell signal like on 8/15/22 and it is possible that we could be topping out by Monday. Monthly and weekly Fibonacci step outs from the 1/4/22 SPX high point to the first half of February as a reversal time window. Our intermediate-term bias is that the SPX rally from 10/13 is a Bear Market Rally and our Time Window target is now into the first half of February. Our price target for this Bear Market rally is the 50%  retracement area around 4150 (achieved Thursday) or the 61.8% retracement around 4300. The NDX has been leading the market higher and has outperformed both the SPX and DJIA -investors have moved from the industrial stocks back to chasing technology stocks again like AAPL which tested important resistance at $157 on Friday.  Crude oil is testing $73 Sunday evening near the exact Full Moon - we could see a reversal higher by Monday. Gold topped out at $1975.2 on Thursday and started a pullback(~$100) into the 12/5 Full Moon - we could see a reversal higher higher start by Monday. The USD is testing 103.28 Sunday evening.

2/05/23 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX is in the Time Window - the first half of February - for a major turn and we have a SELL SIGNAL in our Option Premium Ratio. We will need to see an EW 5-wave decline on the hourly chart for a confirmation signal.  We still contend that the market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that will make new lows in Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp". Our Bear Market Time Window target is the first half of February which included a Fed Day on Wednesday, AAPL and AMZN earnings on Thursday, a NFP jobs report on Friday and a Full Moon on Sunday.  We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown is bullish for crude oil – we like buying pullbacks below $70 if seen. The USD made a low at 100.8 on Wednesday night and is bouncing to test 103.28 Sunday evening. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% uranium stocks and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX rallied in an EW 5-wave pattern from 12/22 into 1/23 - the 3-wave pullback into 1/25 was bullish for more rally into Fed Week. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to the first half of February for an important turn - this should be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that should peak in the first half of February. However, we still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX tested 4195 on Thursday and started a correction into the 2/5-2/6 Full Moon Timing Window - we have a Major Sell Signal on our Option Premium Ratio and our playing it conservatively here.

Gold – Gold started a pullback into the 2/5 Full Moon after the USD made a low at 100.8.

Silver – Silver triple-tested resistance at $24.75 before pulling back on the stronger USD.

Bonds - Bonds fell hard on a much stronger than expected NFP jobs report.

Crude Oil – Crude oil pulled back to test $73 on Sunday's Full Moon - looking for a rebound on Monday.

Dollar Index – The USD made a low at 100.8 and is rebounding to test 103.28 Sunday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 2/6-2/7 Full Moon Timing Window.

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The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 2, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us another big rally day and its 5th wave on the hourly chart continues to sub-divide higher. The futures held up pretty well after key earnings from AAPL, AMZN and GOOGL and the market could be poised to rally more after tomorrow's NFP jobs report.  However, our Option Premium Ratio indicator has given us a major sell signal like on 8/15/22 and it is possible that we could be topping out by Monday. Our intermediate-term bias is that the SPX rally from 10/13 is a Bear Market Rally and our Time Window target is now the first half of February. We also have key earnings from AAPL and AMZN on Thursday this week. Our price target for this Bear Market rally is the 50%  retracement area around 4150 (tested today) or the 61.8% retracement around 4300. The NDX has been leading the market higher and has outperformed both the SPX and DJIA -investors have moved from the industrial stocks back to chasing technology stocks again like AAPL  Crude oil tested its S1-pivot support at $75 and bounced - we may be starting a rally into the 2/3-2/6 Full Moon Timing Window. Gold topped out at $1975.2 and started a pullback into the 12/5 Full Moon. The USD may have made a important low at 100.8 and is reversing higher.

2/02/23 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX continued to extend its rally from Tuesday as we approach Friday's NFP jobs report. The futures held up well after key earnings from AAPL, AMZN and GOOGL however, our Option Premium Ratio indicator gave us a major sell signal like on 8/15/22 which argues for an important top by Monday. We still contend that the market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that will make new lows in Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp". Our Bear Market Time Window target is the first half of February which included a Fed Day on Wednesday, AAPL and AMZN earnings on Thursday, and a NFP jobs report on Friday.  We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown is bullish for crude oil – we like buying pullbacks below $70 if seen. The USD made a low at 100.8 on Wednesday night and is bouncing which is pressuring the PM sector. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% uranium stocks and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX rallied in an EW 5-wave pattern from 12/22 into 1/23 - the 3-wave pullback into 1/25 was bullish for more rally into Fed Week. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to the first half of February for an important turn - this should be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that should peak in the first half of February. However, we still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX continued to extend its rally from Wednesday. However, our Option Premium Ratio gave us a major sell signal like it did on 8/15/22 and argues for a major top by Monday.

Gold – Gold started a pullback into the 2/5 Full Moon after the USD made a low at 100.8.

Silver – Silver tested resistance at $24.75 before pulling back on the stronger USD.

Bonds - Bonds tested 132 before starting a sideways consolidation.

Crude Oil – Crude oil pulled back to test its Si-pivot support at $75 before rebounding.

Dollar Index – The USD made a low at 100.8 and is rebounding.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are the 2/1 Fed Day and the NFP jobs report on 2/3.

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The Daily JDV Market Timer - February 1, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX opened down early Wednesday but then ramped up into the close after Chairman Powell started his press conference. We were wrong about Chairman Powell - he did not try to appear as super hawkish or try to stamp out the "animal spirits" that have crept back into the market in January. The SPX did trace out an EW 5-wave rally from 1/19 that tested the 50% retrace at 4150. Our short-term take is that the SPX could now pull back into Friday's NFP report before another rally attempt to test 4150. Our intermediate-term bias is that the SPX rally from 10/13 is a Bear Market Rally and our Time Window target is now the first half of February. We also have key earnings from AAPL and AMZN on Thursday this week. Our price target for this Bear Market rally is the 50%  retracement area around 4150 (tested today) or the 61.8% retracement around 4300. The NDX has been leading the market higher and has outperformed both the SPX and DJIA -investors have moved from the industrial stocks back to chasing technology stocks again like AAPL  Crude oil tested its S2-pivot support at $76 on Wednesday before bouncing. Gold is spiked to $1970 after Powell's press conference. The USD is testing 100.8 overnight Wednesday which is supporting gold.

2/01/23 (Commentary for Wednesday) The short-term SPX pattern is for a pullback into Friday's NFP report before another rally attempt. We still believe that the market rally from October 13 is a Bear Market Rally that will make new lows in Q2 2023 - we are not in the "this is a new bull market camp". The market rallied hard after the start of Powell's press conference as Powell did not appear earnest in reigning in the "animal spirits" driving the SPX higher.  However, our Bear Market Time Window target is the first half of February which includes a Fed Day on Wednesday, AAPL and AMZN earnings on Thursday, and a NFP jobs report on Friday.  We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower SPX lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market. The China reopening after its Covid lockdown is bullish for crude oil – we like buying pullbacks below $70 if seen. The USD is pulling back to test 100.8 Wednesday night which is supporting gold. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% uranium stocks and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX rallied in an EW 5-wave pattern from 12/22 into 1/23 - the 3-wave pullback into 1/25 was bullish for more rally into Fed Week. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to the first half of February for an important turn - this should be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that should peak in the second half of February. However, we still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers loaded up on gold last year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX opened Fed Day weak, but then rallied strong after the start of Chairman Powell's press conference to finish an EW 5-wave rally on the hourly chart and testing out first price target of 4150. We should now see a pullback into Friday's NFP jobs report before another rally attempt.

Gold – Gold broke higher after the start of Powell's press conference and tested $1972 - will we break out here?.

Silver – Silver broke out above $24 to test its R1-resistance pivot at $24.24.

Bonds - Bonds tested 132 before starting a sideways consolidation.

Crude Oil – Crude oil pulled back to test its S2-pivot support at $76 before rebounding Wednesday night to test its Person's pivot near $77.

Dollar Index – The USD is pulling back to test 100.8 on Wednesday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are the 2/1 Fed Day and the NFP jobs report on 2/3.

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