All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 17, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX rallied into the holiday weekend and then started a modest pullback into Wednesday's PPI report. The SPX posted a multi-week high at 4015.39 before pulling back in a 3-wave correction so far. How the market reacts to the PPI report will set the tone into Friday. The key chart here is for the USD which bounced on Tuesday and gave us a pullback in the SPX and gold. The financial astrology is arguing for big volatility in the next seven days with Mercury going DIRECT on 1/18 and Uranus going DIRECT on 1/22. The USD bounced early Tuesday and that gave us a pullback in the SPX and gold into Wednesday's PPI report. On Friday, gold tested key resistance at $1922 and started a decline into Wednesday's PPI inflation report. A positive market reaction to the PPI report could see a run up in gold to test $1922 again into the 1/20-1/21 New Moon Timing Window. 

1/17/23 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX ran up into the holiday weekend and made a peak Tuesday at 4015.39 before starting a 3-wave pullback. The astro-finance argued for big volatility from 1/12-1/22 as Mars turned DIRECT on 1/12, Mercury turns DIRECT on 1/18 and Uranus turns DIRECT on 1/22. Crude oil is testing its R1-resistance pivot near $81.7 Tuesday evening and the oil stocks may be leading crude oil higher. Tuesday morning will bring us the PPI report and another inflation check point for the SPX rally. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market - despite our bullishness for January. With China reopening after its Covid lockdown, that is bullish for crude oil – we like buying pullbacks below $70 in crude oil. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% uranium stocks and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The continued liquidation of TSLA and AAPL into January argues that we will get a tradable rally in January - if the QQQ can hold above 260. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February 2023 for an important turn - this could be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that should peak in late January/early February. We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX ran up into the holiday weekend and peaked at 4015.39 on Tuesday before pulling back in a 3-wave correction so far. How the market reacts to the PPI inflation report early Wednesday will determine the short-term trend into the 1/20-1/23 New Moon Timing Window.

Gold – Gold tested important horizontal resistance at $1922 near the close on Friday and started a correction into Wednesday's PPI report.

Silver – Silver made highs for the week at $24.67 Sunday night but is also pulling back into the PPI inflation report.

Bonds - Bonds bounced today ahead of the PPI report tomorrow.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested its R1-resistance pivot at $81.7 Tuesday night.

Dollar Index – The USD tested 102.8 Tuesday night and is pressuring gold down. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 1/17 and 1/20.

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The Weekly JDV Market Timer - January 15, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Last week we expected a SPX low in the 1/12-1/13 turn window, but it came in as a high instead. However, the Fibonacci 21-day step out from the 12/22 SPX low came in as a quick correction which is bullish for more near-term gains. The key chart here is for the USD which is making lower lows and boosting the SPX and key commodity stocks. The financial astrology is arguing for big volatility in the next seven days with Mars going DIRECT on 1/12, Mercury going DIRECT on 1/18 and Uranus going DIRECT on 1/22. Gold exceeded the .618 retracement of its March high on 1/6 and that was bullish for last week.  On Friday, gold closed above key resistance at $1922 and that could be bullish for more rally this week. With more breakdown to lower lows in the USD and a 5-wave wave down move in the US 10-year rate, the SPX has room to move higher in the coming week. 

1/15/23 (Commentary for Sunday) The 1/12-1/13 turn window, which we expected to come in as a low, came in as just a quick correction on 1/12 – the Fibonacci 21-day step out from the important 12/22 low – this is bullish for more gains in the SPX this week. The astro-finance argued for big volatility from 1/12-1/22 as Mars turned DIRECT on 1/12, Mercury turns DIRECT on 1/18 and Uranus turns DIRECT on 1/22 – but with the USD dropping, we would buy commodity stocks on dips. Crude oil tested its R2-resistance pivot near $80 on Friday as the weaker USD gave commodities a bid. If the QQQ breaks under 260, we will turn bearish, but our current bias is for an upside break out for the SPX that could run up into early February. Tuesday will bring us the PPI report and another inflation check point for the SPX rally. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market - despite our bullishness for January. With China reopening after its Covid lockdown, that is bullish for crude oil and natural gas – we like buying pullbacks below $70 in crude oil. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% uranium stocks and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The continued liquidation of TSLA and AAPL into January argues that we will get a tradable rally in January - if the QQQ can hold above 260. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February 2023 for an important turn - this could be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that should peak in late January/early February. We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – The bank earnings were originally sold off early Friday, but the SPX recovered to close near 4000 as the USD weakened into the close.

Gold – Gold tested important horizontal resistance at $1922 near the close on Friday.

Silver – Silver made highs for the week at $24.67 Sunday night but is still lagging gold.

Bonds - Bonds made higher highs on Friday and tested 131’09 before starting a correction.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested its R2-resistance pivot at $80 and made highs for the week.

Dollar Index – The USD fell to test 102 on Friday - lows for the year. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 1/17 and 1/20.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 12, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The CPI came in as advertised and after a brief correction, the SPX tested 4000 before declining into the close. The USD made lower lows and gave us a risk-on day. The US bond market finished an EW 5-waves higher on the hourly chart. Today was the 21-day Fibonacci step out from the 12/22 low and that may have given us a short-term high in the SPX.  The SPX appears to be tracing out an EW "flat correction" with the C-Wave down coming in early Friday. The financial astrology is arguing for viscious volatility in the next ten days with Mars going DIRECT yesterday and Uranus going DIRECT on 1/22. Gold tested its .618 retracement of its March high and started coiling sideways. With the breakdown to lower lows in the USD and a 5-wave wave down move in the US 10-year rate, the SPX has room to move higher in the near term. 

1/12/23 (Commentary for Thursday) Both the SPX and E-mini defied our call for a move down into 1/12 and made highs for the week late Wednesday. Then after a market-friendly CPI report - stocks, bonds, gold and crude oil all briefly corrected at the open before moving higher into late Thursday while the USD dropped. Today, the SPX may have made a short-term high on the 21-day Fibonacci step out from the important 12/22 low. The SPX appears to be undergoing an EW "flat correction" and we should get a C-Wave down early Friday. The astro-finance argues for big volatility from 1/12-1/22 as Mars turns DIRECT on 1/12 and Uranus turn DIRECT on 1/22. Crude oil tested $79 on Thursday as the weaker USD gave commodities a bid. If the QQQ breaks under 260, we will turn bearish, but our current bias is for an upside break out for the SPX that could run up into early February -  the positive market reaction after the CPI report could help propel the SPX higher into next week. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market - despite our bullishness for January. If the QQQ can stay above 260 into the 1/12-1/13 turn window, this will be bullish for a rally extension. With China reopening after its Covid lockdown, that is bullish for crude oil and natural gas – we like buying pullbacks below $70 in crude oil. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% uranium stocks and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The continued liquidation of TSLA and AAPL into January argues that we will get a tradable rally in January - if the QQQ can hold above 260. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February 2023 for an important turn - this could be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that should peak in late January/early February. We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – The CPI report came in market-friendly and after an early correction, the SPX rallied to test 4000 before pulling back into the close. We may have started a short-term correction today.

Gold – Gold tested $1903, the .618 retracement of the decline from the March high.

Silver – Silver may have given us a false breakout today and is reversing lower overnight.

Bonds - Bonds finished a 5-wave pattern higher.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $79 and made highs for the week.

Dollar Index – The USD fell to test 102 after the CPI report - lows for the year. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 1/9-1/10 and 1/12-1/13.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 11, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX is coiling for a big move tomorrow after the CPI report and the option markets are pricing in a big one day event. We're looking at probably a +/- 100 SPX point move, but even more than that, the next ten days from 1/12-1/22 are looking to be very volatile. The planet Mars is turning "direct" tomorrow which could be crazy and the planet Uranus will go "direct" 0n 1/22  which will make the next ten days very volatile. The financial astrology is arguing for viscious volatility in the next ten days. The SPX has defied our calls for a pullback from the 1/9-1/10 turn window into the 1/12-1/13 window and, in fact, the SPX and E-mini made highs for the year today. The CPI inflation report on 1/12 will be closely watched and a market catalyst -  a lot of energy has been built up this week and will be released tomorrow.  Stocks, bonds, gold and crude oil have all rallied this week as the USD has trended sideways. Overall, our short-term bias is for the SPX to continue its bear market rally into late Jan/early Feb before its next leg down into April/May. Likewise, we believe that gold could extend its bear market rally into late January/early February before heading down to test its 2022 lows by April 2023. We believe that commodities are still in a bull market and that commodity stocks will be outperformers in 2023. With China re-opening from its Covid lockdown, we like crude oil on dips to $65-$70. We have allocated small amounts of our cash hoard into our favorite sectors: 1) uranium stocks, 2) gold and silver stocks, and 3) etherium for a swing position. We plan to be exiting these positions by late January/early February when we expect a resumption of the bear market in stocks. For this 1/12-1/22 time window, we expect volatility and plan to hold mostly cash with a 20% allocation to physical gold, silver and platinum - we sold out ETHE today and plan to have stink bids in on uranium stocks. After early February, we are looking for a resumption of the SPX bear market which should continue down into April/May and undercut 3000. How the USD handles the CPI report is key and may determine its intermediate trend.

1/11/23 (Commentary for Wednesday) Both the SPX and E-mini defied our call for a move down into 1/12 and made highs for the week late Wednesday. Stocks, bonds, gold and crude oil all moved higher into late Wednesday while the USD trended sideways. We expected the SPX to hold up into our 1/9-1/10 turn window before declining into Wednesday before the CPI report, and since it didn't do that, we are very cautious and remain in cash for the most part. If the QQQ breaks under 260, we will turn bearish, but our current bias is for an upside break out for the SPX that could run up into early February - however, the market reaction tomorrow after the CPI report could set the market tone into next week. The SPX could make a trading low on 1/12-1/13 after the CPI report before turning up again. The SPX low on 12/22 at 3764 is an important low in our work and its 21-day Fibonacci step out falls tomorrow and argues for an IMPORTANT TURN - a HIGH OR LOW. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market - despite our bullishness for January.  If the QQQ can stay above 260 into the 1/12-1/13 turn window, this will be bullish for a rally extension. With China reopening after its Covid lockdown, that is bullish for crude oil and natural gas – we like buying pullbacks below $70 in crude oil. We are looking for the USD to retrace its Friday-Monday decline by Thursday/Friday. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% uranium stocks and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The continued liquidation of TSLA and AAPL into January argues that we will get a tradable rally in January - if the QQQ can hold above 260. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February 2023 for an important turn - this could be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that should peak in late January/early February. We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – Defying our call for a turn down into Wednesday, both the SPX and SPY made highs for the week as the markets tried to price in  a "mild CPY report" tomorrow.  Our bias is for a hotter CPI report than many traders expect. 

Gold – Gold tested highs for the week near $1891. 

Silver – Silver is acting weaker than gold going into the CPI report and actually fell with the USD today.

Bonds - Bonds are testing highs for the week as we near the CPI report.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing highs for the week near $78.

Dollar Index – The USD gave us an EW 5-waves down from early Friday and is due at least a corrective bounce on THursday/Friday. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 1/9-1/10 and 1/12-1/13.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 10, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX did make a peak at 3973.25 on Monday but has managed to just correct sideways into Tuesday so far as we the potentially market-moving CPI report on Thursday. Tomorrow is the last day in our Solar-Lunar Big Range Window and we could expect at least a C-Wave down into Wednesday after the EW a-b-c "flat correction" from Monday. The SPX has held up into the 1/9-1/10 turn window so far, but solar-lunar cycles argue for some volatility going into Wednesday. The CPI inflation report on 1/12 will be closely watched and a market catalyst. Overall, our short-term bias is for the SPX to continue its bear market rally into late Jan/early Feb before its next leg down into April/May. Likewise, we believe that gold could extend its bear market rally into late January/early February before heading down to test its 2022 lows by April 2023. Our longer term bias past is that the USD is close to an important low and that the USD and US rates could reverse up together to pressure the SPX and gold below their 2022 lows. We believe that commodities are still in a bull market and that commodity stocks will be outperformers in 2023. With China re-opening from its Covid lockdown, we like crude oil on dips to $65-$70. We have allocated small amounts of our cash hoard into our favorite sectors: 1) uranium stocks, 2) gold and silver stocks, and 3) etherium for a swing position. We plan to be exiting these positions by late January/early February when we expect a resumption of the bear market in stocks. For this week, we expect some volatility - the SPX will make a short-term high on 1/9-1/10 and then a short-term low on 1/12-1/13. After early February, we are looking for a resumption of the SPX bear market which should continue down into April/May and undercut 3000. Gold and silver held up well on Tuesday as the USD trended sideways.

1/10/23 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX has traded sideways from Monday's high at 3950.57 in what appears to be an EW a-b-c "flat correction" where the Wave C down could start tomorrow. On Tuesday, the USD trended sideways which allowed the SPX to make a B-Wave test of Monday's high. We expected the SPX to hold up into our 1/9-1/10 turn window before declining into Wednesday before the CPI report. If the QQQ breaks under 260, we will turn bearish, but our current bias is for an upside break out for the SPX that could run up into early February. The SPX could make a trading low on 1/12-1/13 on the CPI report before turning up again. The SPX low on 12/22 at 3764 is an important low in our work and the rally into Monday may be just the first leg of a rally into late January. The fact that the generals (AAPL and TSLA) were bloodied into last week is a sign that could get a tradable rally here. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market - despite our bullishness for January.  If the QQQ can stay above 260 into the 1/12-1/13 turn window, this will be bullish for a rally extension. With China reopening after its Covid lockdown, that is bullish for crude oil and natural gas – we like buying pullbacks to $70 in crude oil. We are looking for the USD to retrace its Friday-Monday decline by Thursday/Friday . We currently hold 70% cash, 10% uranium stocks and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The continued liquidation of TSLA and AAPL into January argues that we will get a tradable rally in January - if the QQQ can hold above 260. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February 2023 for an important turn - this could be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that should peak in late January/early February. We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX continued to hold up in our 1/9-1/10 turn window on Tuesday and gave us a B-Wave test of Monday's high. We could see a C-Wave down on Wednesday before the CPI report early Thursday.

Gold – Gold held up into the 1/9-1/10 turn window and tested $1890 Tuesday night. 

Silver – Silver also held up Tuesday night and is testing $24.

Bonds - Bonds finished a 5-wave rally up on Monday and could see some retracement into the CPI report early Thursday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil has been oscillating around $75 the past few days.

Dollar Index – The USD gave us an EW 5-waves down from early Friday and is due a retracement into Wednesday. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 1/9-1/10 and 1/12-1/13.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 9, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX was a coiled spring going into Friday’s NFP jobs report and had built up quite a bit of energy. The lower wage inflation number from the NFP jobs report sparked the SPX to a test of its 200-dma. For this week, we are expecting big volatility – the SPX could hold up into Mon/Tues before correcting into Thur/Fri. The CPI inflation report on 1/12 will be closely watched and a market catalyst. Overall, our short-term bias is for the SPX to continue its bear market rally into late Jan/early Feb before its next leg down in April 2023. Likewise, we believe that gold could extend its bear market rally into late January/early February before heading down to test its 2022 lows by April 2023. Our longer term bias past late January is that the USD is close to an important low and that the USD and US rates could reverse up together to pressure the SPX and gold below their 2022 lows. We believe that commodities are still in a bull market and that commodity stocks will be outperformers in 2023. With China re-opening from its Covid lockdown, we like crude oil on dips to $65-$70. We have allocated small amounts of our cash hoard into our favorite sectors: 1) uranium stocks, 2) gold and silver stocks, and 3) etherium for a swing position. We plan to be exiting these positions by late January/early February when we expect a resumption of the bear market in stocks. For this week, we expect a lot of volatility - the SPX will make a short-term high on 1/9-1/10 and then a short-term low on 1/12-1/13. After early February, we are looking for a resumption of the SPX bear market which should continue down into April and undercut 3000. We are looking for downside action in gold and silver on Tuesday as the USD retraces its steep decline into Monday.

1/09/23 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX tagged 3950.57 before rolling over into the close as the market anticipated Powell's potentially hawkish comments from Sweden at 9:00 AM EDT. On Tuesday, a rebounding USD could bring more pullback in the SPX into Thursday's CPI report. If the QQQ breaks under 260, we will turn bearish, but our current bias is for an upside break out that could run up into early February. The SPX could make a trading low on 1/12-1/13 on the CPI report before turning up again. The SPX low on 12/22 at 3764 could have been an important low. The fact that the generals (AAPL and TSLA) were bloodied into last week is a sign that we are getting a tradable rally here. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market - despite our bullishness for January.  If the QQQ can stay above 260 into the 1/12-1/13 turn window, this will be bullish for a rally extension. With China reopening after its Covid lockdown, that is bullish for crude oil and natural gas – we like buying pullbacks to $70 in crude oil. We are looking for the USD to retrace its Friday-Monday decline on Tuesday. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% uranium stocks and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The continued liquidation of TSLA and AAPL into January argues that we will get a tradable rally in January - if the QQQ can hold above 260. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February 2023 for an important turn - this could be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that should peak in late January/early February. We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPY continued its rally from Friday and  tested its 200-dma before declining into the close. Chairman Powell speaks early Tuesday at 9:00 am EDT and chances are he will reiterate his hawkish message to the stock markets and this could continue the selling into Thursday's CPI report. 

Gold – Gold tagged $1886 before pulling back into the close on Monday. Powell's speech early Tuesday should bring volatility to gold and the gold stocks. 

Silver – Gold made higher highs last week but silver did not for a case of bearish divergence - silver rallied to its R1 resistance pivot at $24.25 before rolling over into the close.

Bonds - Bonds finished a 5-wave rally up on Monday and could see some retracement on Powell's speech early Tuesday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil went sideways into Friday’s Full Moon - a break below $70 by Moon will have us looking to buy back CVX.

Dollar Index – The USD gave us an EW 5-waves down from early Friday and is due a retracement on Tuesday. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 1/9-1/10 and 1/12-1/13.

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - January 8, 2023

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX was a coiled spring going into Friday’s NFP jobs report and had built up quite a bit of energy. The lower wage inflation number from the NFP jobs report sparked the SPX to a test of its 200-dma. For this week, we are expecting big volatility – the SPX could hold up into Mon/Tues before correcting into Thur/Fri. The CPI inflation report on 1/12 will be closely watched and a market catalyst. Overall, our short-term bias is for the SPX to continue its bear market rally into late Jan/early Feb before its next leg down in April 2023. Likewise, we believe that gold could extend its bear market rally into late January/early February before heading down to test its 2022 lows by April 2023. Our longer term bias past late January is that the USD is close to an important low and that the USD and US rates could reverse up together to pressure the SPX and gold below their 2022 lows. We believe that commodities are still in a bull market and that commodity stocks will be outperformers in 2023. With China re-opening from its Covid lockdown, we like crude oil on dips to $65-$70. We have allocated small amounts of our cash hoard into our favorite sectors: 1) uranium stocks, 2) gold and silver stocks, and 3) etherium for a swing position. We plan to be exiting these positions by late January/early February when we expect a resumption of the bear market in stocks. For this week, we expect a lot of volatility - the SPX will make a short-term high on 1/9-1/10 and then a short-term low on 1/12-1/13. After early February, we are looking for a resumption of the SPX bear market which should continue down into April and undercut 3000. We are looking for downside action in gold and silver on Tuesday as the USD retraces its steep decline into Monday.

1/08/23 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX tagged 3950.57 before rolling over into the close as the market anticipated Powell's potentially hawkish comments from Sweden at 9:00 AM EDT. On Tuesday, a rebounding USD could bring more pullback in the SPX into Thursday's CPI report. If the QQQ breaks under 260, we will turn bearish, but our current bias is for an upside break out that could run up into early February. The SPX could make a trading low on 1/12-1/13 on the CPI report before turning up again. The SPX low on 12/22 at 3764 could have been an important low. The fact that the generals (AAPL and TSLA) were bloodied into last week is a sign that we are getting a tradable rally here. We did not see a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 but do believe that lower lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market - despite our bullishness for January.  If the QQQ can stay above 260 into the 1/12-1/13 turn window, this will be bullish for a rally extension. With China reopening after its Covid lockdown, that is bullish for crude oil and natural gas – we like buying pullbacks to $70 in crude oil. We are looking for the USD to retrace its decline on Tuesday. We currently hold 70% cash, 10% uranium stocks and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The continued liquidation of TSLA and AAPL into January argues that we will get a tradable rally in January - if the QQQ can hold above 260. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February 2023 for an important turn - this could be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We consider the rally from 10/13/22 as a bear market rally in gold, silver and the PM stocks that should peak in late January/early February. We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX pulled back into the NFP jobs report and into the 1/6-1/9 turn window which included a Full Moon and the midpoint of Mercury retrograde and reversed higher to test its 200-dma. We could see higher highs on 1/9-1/10 before a retrace to the 1/12-1/13 turn window that includes the CPI inflation report.

Gold – Gold pulled back to test its S2 pivot at $1829 on Thursday and then reversed up hard after the NFP jobs report and tested $1875 late Friday and Sunday evening. A rebounding USD could give us a pullback on Monday.  

Silver – Silver pulled back into the 1/6-1/9 turn window and then reversed hard up into the Full Moon on Friday as the USD fell - we could form a short-term high on Monday.

Bonds - Bonds reversed up after the weaker than expected wage gains in the NFP jobs report and rallied hard on Friday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil went sideways into Friday’s Full Moon - a break below $70 by Moon will have us looking to buy back CVX.

Dollar Index – The USD is coiling sideways before the NFP jobs report. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 1/9-1/10 and 1/12-1/13.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 5, 2023

                                                                     HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The ADP came in stronger than expected and that had the SPX selling off at the open. SPX is the important 1/6-1/9 turn window which includes the midpoint of the Mercury retrograde time period. The SPX has been churning sideways and building up energy for a breakout and a strong trending move. How the stocks react to the NFP jobs report early Friday will set the tone. A break under QQQ 260 will turn us short-term bearish tomorrow but our gut is going against the heavy short bias in the market and our short-term bias into early February is BULLISH and we have allocated small amounts of our cash hoard into our favorite sectors: 1) uranium stocks, 2) gold and silver stocks, and 3) etherium for a swing position. We plan to be exiting these positions by early February when we expect a resumption of the bear market. Our short-term bias is that the SPX will put in a trading low this week or early next and continue higher into early February - we are looking for a similar rally pattern as we saw in Jan/Feb 2020 before the Covid shutdown. After early February, we are looking for a resumption of the bear market which should continue down into March/April and undercut 3000. Crude oil pulled back and tested $72.62 today  - the XLE was the strongest sector today. Gold and silver continued their typical pullback typical pullback into Friday's NFP jobs report.

1/05/22 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX pulled back after the stronger-than-expected ADP jobs report and that now sets the markets up for the NFP jobs report early Friday. How the SPX reacts after the NFP jobs report will set the market tone into next week. The SPX is heading into the 1/6-1/9 turn window and it has built up enough energy to break out and make a trending move. If the QQQ breaks under 260, we will turn bearish but our current bias is for an upside break out that could run up into early February. The SPX could make a trading low this week before rallying into early February like it did in Feb 2020 before the Covid shutdown. The SPX low last week at 3764 could have been the short-term low. The fact that the generals(AAPL and TSLA) are being "taken out and shot"  argues that we are close to a tradable low in the SPX. We have not seen a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off so far in 2022 but do believe that lower lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market - despite our bullishness for January.  If the QQQ can stay above 260 into the 1/6-1/9 turn window, this will be bullish.  Both crude oil and gold appear to be pulling back into the Full Moon tomorrow. How the USD trades on Friday will be very important with the NFP jobs report coming out.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The continued liquidation of TSLA and AAPL into January argues that we may get a tradable rally in January - if the QQQ can hold above 260. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February for an important turn - this could be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX pulled back into the NFP jobs report and into the 1/6-1/9 turn window which includes a Full Moon and the midpoint of Mercury retrograde and this could give us a trading low in the SPX by Monday.

Gold – Gold pulled back to test its S2 pivot at $1829 as we move into the NFP jobs report and Full Moon tomorrow - we are looking for a low in gold by Monday. The GDX pulled back to almost fill its gap from early Wednesday.  

Silver – Silver is pulling back into the 1/6-1/9 turn window and broke its 10-dma today - we should form a low by Monday.

Bonds - Bonds only corrected sideways after the strong ADP jobs report and that is bullish.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is pulling back into the Friday Full Moon - a break below $70 on Friday will have us looking to buy back CVX.

Dollar Index – The USD is coiling sideways before the NFP jobs report. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 1/6-1/9 which includes  the NFP jobs report + Full Moon + midpoint of Mercury retrograde.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 4, 2023

                                                                     HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX took the rather hawkish minutes in stride and managed the first positive market day in 2023. We still measure some of the most bearish sentiment ever recorded in our work - the AAII sentiment survey was more bearish on their 12/22/22 report when the SPX was at 3764 than when the SPX made its yearly low on 10/13/22 at 3492 - THIS IS CONTRARY BULLISH. Fundstat recently reported that their measures of stock market sentiment are even more bearish than after the market crash of 2009. Our short-term bias into early February is BULLISH and we have allocated small amounts of our cash hoard into our favorite sectors: 1) uranium stocks, 2) gold and silver stocks, and 3) etherium for a swing position. We plan to be exiting these positions by early February when we expect a resumption of the bear market. We have the NFP jobs report on Friday and the SPX tends to pull back into this report and we expect some volatility in the 1/6-1/9 time period. Our Option Premium Ratio reading and the ISE call/put ratio showed strong "long put" buying going into the close on Tuesday. Our bias is that the SPX will put in a trading low this week or early next and continue higher into early February - we are looking for a similar rally pattern as we saw in Jan/Feb 2020 before the Covid shutdown.  After early February, we are looking for a resumption of the bear market which should continue down into March/April and undercut 3000. Crude oil pulled back and tested its S2 pivot support at $73.50 - we look to acquire energy stocks on pullbacks into early February.  The SPX looks close to making a tradable low as we enter 2023.  We expect gold to make its typical pullback into Friday's NFP jobs report.

1/04/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) In 2023, we continue to favor 80% cash until we see a high-volume capitulation in the SPX and a breakout in the VIX > 50 but we may undertake some long trades in uranium stocks, gold and silver if we get the  trade setups into 1/12/2022.  If invested in stocks, we favor value over growth stocks in 2023. The agricultural sector still looks attractive to us this year - a break above $8 for wheat could give us a move to $10 and that could be a good trade for the WEAT ETF. The SPX could make a trading low this week before rallying into early February like it did in Feb 2020 before the Covid shutdown. The SPX low last week at 3764 could have been the short-term low. The fact that the generals(AAPL and TSLA) are being "taken out and shot"  argues that we are close to a tradable low in the SPX. We have not seen a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off so far in 2022 but do believe that lower lows are due in Q2 of 2023 for the stock market - despite our bullishness for January.  If the QQQ can stay above 260 into the 1/6-1/9 turn window, this will be bullish.  How the USD trades on Thursday will be very important with the ADP jobs report coming out.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The continued liquidation of TSLA and AAPL into January argues that we may get a tradable rally in January - if the QQQ can hold above 260. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February for an important turn - this could be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in Q2 of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX rallied into the close after hawkish FOMC minutes and we view this as bullish.

Gold – Gold tested $1871 and is pulling back correctively - solar-lunar cycles argue for a Big Range Day on Thursday. The GDX powered up today and led the PM sector higher.

Silver – Silver pulled back on Wednesday but may be close to ending an EW a-b-c correction.

Bonds - Bonds gave us a 5-wave up move from 12/20.

Crude Oil – Crude oil pulled back to to the S2 support pivot at $73.50 and the XLE came back as well.

Dollar Index – The USD is coiling sideways as gold continue higher. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 1/6 - the NFP jobs report.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - January 3, 2023

                                                                     HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  On the first trading day of 2023, the SPX gave us a gap-up open only to pull back and close down for the day. We have the NFP jobs report on Friday and the SPX tends to pull back into this report. Our Option Premium Ratio reading and the ISE call/put ratio showed strong "long put" buying going into the close today. Our bias is that the SPX will put in a trading low this week and continue higher into early February - we are looking for a similar rally pattern as we saw in Jan/Feb 2020 before the Covid shutdown.  After early February, we are looking for a resumption of the bear market which should continue down into March/April and undercut 3000.  Crude oil pulled back today and we consider pullbacks buying opportunities into early February.  The SPX looks close to making a tradable low as we enter 2023.  The USD rallied up with gold today but we expect gold to make its typical pullback into Friday's NFP jobs report.

1/03/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) In 2023, we continue to favor 80% cash until we see a high-volume capitulation in the SPX and a breakout in the VIX > 50 but we may undertake some long trades in uranium stocks, gold and silver if we get the  trade setups into 1/12/2022.  If invested in stocks, we favor value over growth stocks in 2023. The agricultural sector still looks attractive to us this year - a break above $8 for wheat could give us a move to $10 and that could be a good play for the WEAT ETF. The SPX could make a trading low this week before rallying into early February like it did in Feb 2020 before the Covid shutdown. The SPX low last week at 3764 could have been the short-term low. The fact that the generals(AAPL and TSLA) are being "taken out and shot"  argues that we are close to a tradable low in the SPX. The global central banks are raising interest rates to fight inflation and these rate hikes are pressuring Big Tech but the bounce in bonds into today gave the market some relief. We have not seen a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off so far in 2022 but do believe that lower lows are due in the first half of 2023 for the stock market.  If the QQQ can stay above 260 on Tuesday/Wednesday - this will be bullish.  How the USD trades on Wednesday will be very important with the ADP jobs report coming out.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The continued liquidation of TSLA and AAPL into January argues that we may get a tradable rally early in 2023 - if the QQQ can hold above 260. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February for an important turn - this could be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in the first half of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Q2 2023.

Stocks – The SPX gave us a gap-up open Tuesday which was totally retraced but we still held the trendline from 12/22 which is constructive.

Gold – Gold tested $1856 and made a multi-week high - solar-lunar cycles argue for a Big Range Day on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Silver – Silver broke out of a wedge Monday night and SLV challenged the downtrend line from March once again before pulling back. Silver underperformed gold today.

Bonds - Bonds are working on a 5-wave up move from 12/20.

Crude Oil – Crude oil pulled back to $76.50 and the XLE came down hard as well.

Dollar Index – The USD rallied up with gold today which may have been a start of year anomaly. 

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 1/06, the NFP jobs report.