All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 29, 2022

                                                                     HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO ALL!

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  After the SPX gave us a B-wave test of the 3764 low on 12/22, and the QQQ gave us a declining wedge on its hourly chart, stocks gave us a solid rally day today and reversed most of yesterday's loses. The PMI report early Friday should set the tone into the holiday weekend. The SPX declined in an EW 5-wave pattern form 12/13 to 12/22 but has only rebounded in 3-wave fashion so far, but this pattern could morph into something more impulsive. Today may have been a Wave C higher that could continue to sub-divide higher and test SPX 3891.  The QQQ, led by AAPL, fell in a declining wedge pattern yesterday and today broke out of its down trendline with a solid rally day - staying above QQQ 260 is important for the bullish case. Gold rallied to test $1825 on a weakening USD. We still recommend 80% cash and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

12/29/22 (Commentary for Thursday) The QQQ, led by AAPL, ended a falling wedge pattern yesterday on its hourly chart and led the stock market higher on a strong rally day. The SPX finished a B-Wave test of the 12/22 3764 low and looks to test SPX 3890, the previous 4th wave resistance.  We are watching the 3-wave SPX rally from 12/22 to see if it can morph into something more impulsive. The PMI report early Friday could be an early catalyst. Big Tech stocks like TSLA, AAPL and NVDA were sold off hard this week and got a lot of airtime on CNBC - the fact that the generals are being "taken out and shot" argues that we are getting close to some kind of tradable low but the bulls need to take control here and give us another follow through rally day on the QQQ. The global central banks are raising interest rates to fight inflation and these rate hikes are pressuring Big Tech but the bounce in bonds today gave Big Tech some relief. We have not seen a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off so far in 2022 but do believe that lower lows are due in the first half of 2023 for the stock market. However, the hard selling in AAPL and TSLA could also argue that we could be close to a tradable low as we approach the New Year - if the QQQ can stay above 260.  How the USD trades on Friday will be very important.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The continued liquidation of TSLA and AAPL argue that we may get a tradable rally early in 2023 - if the QQQ can hold above 260. However, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to February for an important turn - this could be a trading high for the SPX. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in the first half of 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Jan/Feb.

Stocks – Did the SPX finish 5-waves down at 3764 on Thursday and start a holiday rally? Well, we need more than a 3-wave rally on the SPX from 12/22 to convince us - how the SPX trades after the PMI report Friday is key.

Gold – Gold tested $1825 today as it continues to correct but gold stocks lagged today.

Silver – Silver is correcting sideways - a close above SLV 22.2 would be bullish.

Bonds - Bonds made lower lows for December but ended the session strong.

Crude Oil – Crude oil may have finished an EW a-b-c correction today.

Dollar Index – Moves in the USD drive the volatility in gold and silver. The pullback in the USD today support gold and silver.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/27.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 28, 2022

                                                                     HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO ALL!

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX spoke loudly to us today and is tracing out a potentially very bearish pattern from last Thursday. The SPX declined in an EW 5-wave pattern form 12/13 to 12/22 but has only rebounded in 3-wave corrective fashion so far. Today may have seen part of a Wave B that will test the 12/22 low at SPX 3764 before a reversal higher in a Wave C tomorrow at some point.  The QQQ, led by AAPL, is close to testing "an air pocket" on the chart from 260 to 230 that could lead to a minicrash by 12/30 or 1/3, so how we trade on Thursday needs to be watch closely. Gold corrected to test $1808 as the USD bounced and the 10-yr US rate advanced. We are looking for more volatility in gold and silver on Thursday driven by the intra-day moves in the USD. We still recommend 80% cash and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

12/28/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) The NDX sure is being led down hard by Big Tech and AAPL's chart looks like the chart of TSLA some weeks ago. But the key thing to watch for us is the pattern of the SPX rally from 12/22 - it looks 3-wave corrective so far and even if we rally tomorrow, there is a chance of a 3rd wave down from the 12/13 SPX high that could break through 3764 on 12/30 or 1/3. The NDX appears close to testing its 10/13 low that could trigger a dramatic move down in the QQQ "air pocket" from 260 to 230 which is a very thin demand zone. Big Tech stocks like TSLA, AAPL and NVDA were sold off hard this week and got a lot of airtime on CNBC - the fact that the generals are being "taken out and shot" argues that we are getting close to some kind of tradable low but the bulls need to take control here. The TRIN-5 gave us a second SPX SELL SIGNAL on the close of Tuesday which helped drive the SPX sell off on Wednesday. Notable hedge fund manager, David Tepper, chided traders for fighting the Fed's rate hike strategy and admitted to being short the stock market last week. The global central banks are raising interest rates to fight inflation and these rate hikes are pressuring Big Tech. We have not seen a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off so far in 2022 but do believe that lower lows are due in Q1 2023 for the stock market. However, the hard selling in AAPL and TSLA could also argue that we could be close to a tradable low as we approach the New Year - if the QQQ can stay above 260.  How the USD trades on Wednesday will be very important.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The continued liquidation of TSLA and AAPL argue that we may get a tradable rally early in 2023 - if the QQQ can hold above 260. However,  the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to February for an important turn. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Jan/Feb.

Stocks – Did the SPX finish 5-waves down at 3764 on Thursday and start a holiday rally. Well, with a TRIN-5 SELL SIGNAL on Friday and today, we remain cautious for Wednesday and our sitting on our hands.

Gold – Gold rallied $30 early Tuesday but retraced much of that into the close.

Silver – Silver stocks tried to lead silver higher today which is a bullish thing.

Bonds - Bonds broke down out of its "bear flag" on Friday and continued down hard ton Wednesday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil fell back to $77 on Wednesday.

Dollar Index – Moves in the USD drive the volatility in gold and silver. How we trade on Thursday will be crucial for gold and the SPX.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/27.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 27, 2022

                                                                     HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO ALL!

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The X-mas rally petered out pre-market today and only the DJIA managed a positive day. Low volume, holiday trading dominated today's trading which didn't change much - the SPX made an inside day to Friday's price action. Most notable today was the continued plunge in Big Tech - TSLA and AAPL - which took the QQQ down 1.5% Also noteworthy today was the strength in the XLE and GDX, which has been leading the SPX. The XLE was strong on the continued reopening going on in China which argues to increase Chinese oil consumption. Gold spiked up $30 on the early weakness of the USD and negated its sell signal on Thursday. We are looking for more volatility in gold and silver tomorrow.  We still recommend 80% cash and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

12/27/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) The E-mini looked promising pre-market but fizzled before the open. Big Tech stocks like TSLA, AAPL and NVDA were sold off hard and got a lot of airtime on CNBC - the fact that the generals are being "taken out and shot" argues that we are getting close to some kind of tradable low but the bulls need to take control here. To us it’s a 50-50 proposition. The TRIN-5 gave us another SPX SELL SIGNAL on the close of Tuesday which is bearish. Notable hedge fund manager, David Tepper, chided traders for fighting the Fed's rate hike strategy and admitted to being short the stock market last week. However, it is also possible that the SPX selling ended with the "Jupiter square Uranus aspect" on 12/23. We have not seen a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off so far in 2022 but do believe that lower lows are due in Q1 2023 for the stock market. However, the hard selling in AAPL and TSLA argue that we could be close to a tradable low as we approach the New Year. The USD gave us a "head fake" down early which ignited gold but ended the day strong as the 10-yr US rate continued to rise.  How the USD trades on Wednesday will be very important.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The continued liquidation of TSLA and AAPL argue that we may get a tradable rally early in 2023. However,  SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to February for an important turn. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Jan/Feb.

Stocks – Did the SPX finish 5-waves down at 3764 on Thursday and start a holiday rally. Well, with a TRIN-5 SELL SIGNAL on Friday and today, we remain cautious for Wednesday and our sitting on our hands.

Gold – Gold rallied $30 early Tuesday but retraced much of that into the close.

Silver – Silver stocks tried to lead silver higher today which is a bullish thing.

Bonds - Bonds broke down out of its "bear flag" on Friday and continued down hard today.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $81 on Tuesday on more Chinese opening news.

Dollar Index – Moves in the USD drove the volatility in gold and silver today. How we trade on Wednesday will be crucial for gold and the SPX.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/27.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 26, 2022

                                                                     HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO ALL!

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week Did a X-mas rally start at SPX 3764 on Thursday?  The 21-day Fibonacci step out came in on 12/22 and we formed a low. The SPX pulled back into the 12/22-12/23  New Moon Timing Window on Thursday and reversed higher.  We could continue this rally early Tuesday. However, our TRIN-5 indicator did print a SELL SIGNAL at 3.90 on Friday and that has correlated with sell offs in this bear market year. Gold broke its 10-dma on Thursday and its uptrend – this is a short-term sell signal going into yearend. We still recommend 80% cash and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

12/26/22 (Commentary for Monday) A lot of traders bought the idea of a X-mas rally when we tested SPX 3764 on Thursday. To us it’s a 50-50 proposition. Our indicators are split for trading on 12/27 so we prefer to sit on our hands. The TRIN-5 gave us a SPX SELL SIGNAL on the close of Friday. Notable hedge fund manager, David Tepper, chided traders for fighting the Fed's rate hike strategy and admitted to being short the stock market. However, it is also possible that the SPX selling ended with the "Jupiter square Uranus aspect" on 12/23. We have not seen a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off so far in 2022 but do believe that lower lows are due in Q1 2023 for the stock market. The USD held up into Friday after back testing its down trend line - how the USD trades on Tuesday will be very important.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q2 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to February for an important turn. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows sometime in  2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Jan/Feb.

Stocks – Did the SPX finish 5-waves down at 3764 on Thursday and start a holiday rally. Well, with a TRIN-5 SELL SIGNAL on Friday, we remain cautious for Tuesday and our sitting on our hands.

Gold – Gold bounced into Friday but remains on a SELL SIGNAL.

Silver – Silver pulled back into Friday's New Moon and bounced.

Bonds - Bonds broke down out of its "bear flag" on Friday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $80.50 on Friday’s New Moon.

Dollar Index – After back testing its downtrend line into Thursday, the USD bounced and held up into Friday’s close - how we trade on Tuesday will be crucial for gold and the SPX.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/27.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 22, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week The SPX bottomed in our 1/20/22 turn window an4 gave us a 3-wave corrective rally into Wednesday which ended a 4th wave off the 12/13 high. Today, on an upward revision to GDP and a reduced jobless claims number, the SPX sold off to 3764 before rebounding into the close.  The late bounce may have only been a small 4th wave bounce and we could see a test of Thursday's low early Friday near the exact New Moon.  We still recommend 80% cash and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

12/22/22 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX gave us a 3-wave bounce off Tuesday's low that lasted into Wednesday(a 4th wave) and then reversed down Thursday in a 5th wave. We could see an undercut low early Friday near the exact New Moon and target 3750 before reversing. Notable hedge fund manager, David Tepper, chided traders for fighting the Fed's rate hike strategy and admitted to being short the stock market. It is also possible to see more SPX selling that could continue into the close with the "Jupiter square Uranus aspect" on 12/23 -  we council caution here.  We have not seen a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off so far in 2022 but do believe that lower lows are due in Q1 2023 for the stock market. The USD continues to back test its downtrend line today after the spike up in the Yen Monday evening - how the USD trades on Friday will be very important.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q1 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Jan/Feb.

Stocks – Did the SPX finish 5-waves down at 3764 on Thursday. Our filtered "put/call" data argues that bearish intensity increased on Thursday and this could give us continued SPX selling into 12/26. 

Gold – Gold pulled back in a potential C-Wave down.

Silver – Silver also is pulling back into Friday's New Moon.

Bonds - Bonds appear to be tracing out a "bear flag".

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $80 early Thursday and could spike higher into the 12/23 New Moon.

Dollar Index – The USD continued to back test its downtrend line today - how we trade on Friday will be crucial for gold and the SPX.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 12/20 and 12/23, the New Moon.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 21, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week The SPX rallied for a second day and we could get more rally into Friday's New Moon - a X-mas rally. Larry Williams, who has done extensive seasonal work on December market seasonality, argues that tomorrow would be a good time to buy for the holiday rally. A .382 retracement of the SPX decline from 12/13 would target SPX 3925. The SPX made an important double top on 12/13 (in our 12/13-12/14 turn window) and started a big move down (led by large Dark Pool volume on the 12/14 Fed Day). We view the SPX high on 12/13 as an Intermediate Cycle High(ICH) and we got an EW 5-waves down to SPX 3795 early Tuesday into our 12/20 turn window. The USD continues  be back test its downtrend line after the spike higher in the Yen - this has boosted the PM sector. We still recommend 80% cash and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum, but we do have a modest trading position in gold and silver stocks going into the 12/23-12/26 New Moon Timing Window.

12/21/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX did give us an EW 5-waves down to 3795 into early Tuesday and we started a retracement rally that could carry as far as the New Moon on Friday and reach 3925-3952 or so. In our work, the Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a "turning point day" and we did see a reversal higher early Tuesday that continued into today. Our short-term bias is to buy early weakness on Thursday for a bounce into Friday's New Moon. Jim Cramer also argued from Larry William's work that a X-mas rally could start on Thursday - we need to watch this closely because some cycles argue for more stock weakness into Friday. Crude oil tested $78.5 today but still looks corrective to us  but there is still a chance for a spike higher into the New Moon on Friday. Gold continued its test of the $1836 high and the GDX continued its outperformance.  We have not seen a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off so far in 2022 but do believe that lower lows are due in Q1 2023 for the stock market. The USD continues to back test its downtrend line today after the spike up in the Yen Monday evening - how the USD trades on Thursday will be very important.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – From the 12/13 4100 high, the SPX gave us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart into early Tuesday at 3795 which is a SELL SIGNAL. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q1 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We need to change our short-term bias on the GDX to bullish - the 5-waves down into Monday's close was the end of a "Running B-Wave" correction and we are now rallying into the 12/23 New Moon.  We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Jan/Feb.

Stocks – Our bias is that the SPX started the next bear leg down after double-testing 4100 on the 12/13 open and ending 5-waves down at SPX 3795 early Tuesday - on our turn window. We expect a retracement rally to 3925-3955 by Friday's New Moon.

Gold – Gold continues to coil under the $1836 high from 12/13 - we could see a spike higher into the 12/23 New Moon.

Silver – Silver continues to hold up near its recent high of $24.52 and could also spike higher into Friday's New Moon.

Bonds - Bonds are giving us a 3-wave corrective bounce from Monday evening.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $78.5 on Wednesday and could spike higher into the 12/23 New Moon.

Dollar Index – The USD continued to back test its downtrend line today - how we trade on Thursday will be crucial for gold and the SPX.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 12/20 and 12/23, the New Moon.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 20, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week The news of the Bank of Japan raising their interest rates caused overnight selling in US stock futures, but the SPX and DJIA managed to close positive on Tuesday which is a turning point day in our work. To us, it looked like a  consolidation day in US markets after an EW 5-wave decline in the SPX and that is bearish for the next leg down on Wednesday. The SPX made an important double top on 12/13 (in our 12/13-12/14 turn window) and started a big move down (led by large Dark Pool volume on the 12/14 Fed Day). We view the SPX high on 12/13 as an Intermediate Cycle High(ICH) and are are looking for a potential test of SPX 3750 on Wednesday on the 8-day Fibonacci step out from the 12/13 high. The USD appears to be back testing its downtrend line after the spike higher in the Yen - how we trade on Wednesday will be key. We still recommend 80% cash and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

12/20/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) Despite overnight selling from the Bank of Japan's rate announcement, the SPX and DJIA managed to close positive for the day. In our work, the Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a "turning point day" and since it came in as an up day, we are looking for reversal down tomorrow in the SPX with a potential target of 3750. The Fibonacci 8-day step out from the 12/13 high also points to Wednesday as potential low. Jim Cramer is also arguing from Larry William's work that a X-mas rally could start on Thursday - we need to watch this closely because cycles argue for more stock weakness into Friday.  US bonds continued their sell off in the aftermath of the Japanese rate pivot higher. Crude oil's rally after testing $70 continues to look corrective to us but there is still a chance for a spike higher into the New Moon on Friday. Gold gave us a B-Wave test of the $1836 high and silver actually took out its 12/13 high and tested $24.525 as the USD pulled back today. We have not seen a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off so far in 2022 but do believe that lower lows are due in Q1 2023 for the stock market. Hedge funds have gone heavily short energy stocks since 11/14 and that trade still worked well into Tuesday's close. The USD back tested its downtrend line today after the spike up in the Yen - how the USD trades on Wednesday will be very important.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – From the 12/13 4100 high, the SPX gave us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart into Monday which is a SELL SIGNAL. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q1 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Monday gave us an EW 5-waves down on the GDX which is a SELL SIGNAL.  We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Jan/Feb.

Stocks – Our bias is that the SPX started the next bear leg down after double-testing 4100 on the 12/13 open – closing below SPY 389 on 12/15 was bearish. The Tuesday after a monthly expiration, 12/20, is a turn window and we got a trading bounce. We are looking for a reversal down on Wednesday that could test 3750.

Gold – Gold gave us a B-Wave test of its 12/13 $1836 high today - we could see a C-Wave down tomorrow.

Silver – Silver rallied to a new December high at $24.52 today as the USD weakened.

Bonds - US bonds continued to sell off as the 10-yr US rate rallied in sympathy with the 10-yr Japanese rate.

Crude Oil – Crude oil’s move off of $70 does not look impulsive but crude oil could hold up into the New Moon on 12/23.

Dollar Index – The USD back tested its downtrend line today - how we trade on Wednesday will be illuminating as the Japanese rate decision washes through global markets.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 12/20 and 12/23, the New Moon.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 19, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week In a quiet day of holiday trading, the SPX sold off from the open and tested 3800 before a bounce into the close - the SPX is now an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart which is a SELL SIGNAL The big news came Monday evening when the Band of Japan reset their interest rate levels higher on their 10-yr bond and other government rates - bond, stock, and currency markets around the world are seeing large moves overnight. The ramifications of this move will take weeks to work through the global financial system. In the US markets, the Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a "turning point day" in our work and we expect to see some kind of reversal higher at some point on Tuesday. The SPX made an important double top on 12/13 (in our 12/13-12/14 turn window) and started a big move down (led by large Dark Pool volume on the 12/14 Fed Day).  Statistically, the big plunge down below 3900 on Thursday is usually followed by heavy selling on Monday and Tuesday. From a seasonality point of view, the SPX makes a low between 12/13 and 12/21. If Tuesday comes in as a low for the week, we will expect a bounce into the 12/23 New Moon on Friday. Just a corrective bounce into the 12/23 New Moon will argue for more downside after the X-mas holiday. We still recommend 80% cash and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

12/19/22 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX sold off hard after double testing 2100 on 12/13. After the cooler than expected CPI report early 12/13, the E-mini made a high for the move off of 10/13 at 4180. However, we saw massive selling coming in at the open on Tuesday by hedge fund traders that took their profits and went home for the holidays. On Fed Day, when traders expected big volatility from the lips of Chairman Powell, big Dark pool volume came in and sold the market down to close below the key SPY 389 level. The SPX did make a partial gap fill Friday afternoon that led to a bounce into the close. Our bias is that the SPX double peaked at 4100 and has started the next leg down in the bear market into January. We have not seen a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 so far but do believe that lower lows are due in Q1 2023 for the stock market. Crude oil’s advance did not look impulsive last week and that could generate a retest of $70 in the coming week. Hedge funds have gone heavily short energy stocks since 11/14 and that trade worked well into Friday's close. Silver made a multi-month high on 12/13 at $24.39 but then reversed down in 5-waves for a SELL SIGNAL The USD may have made an important low on 12/15 at 103.45. Monday evening the USD got a 3-wave correction from the BOJ rate move and how the USD trades on Tuesday will set the tone for several markets including gold and silver.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made a partial gap-fill and bounced into Friday’s close but the plunge under 3900 on 12/15 argues for more heavy selling on Monday and Tuesday which would give us an EW 5-waves down from 12/13 and a SELL SIGNAL. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q1 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Monday gave us an EW 5-waves down on the GDX which is a SELL SIGNAL.  We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Jan/Feb.

Stocks – We believe that the SPX started the next leg down after double-testing 4100 on the 12/13 open – closing below SPY 389 on Thursday was bearish. The Tuesday after a monthly expiration, 12/20, is a turn window in our work and we expect a trading bounce.

Gold – Gold is giving us an EW a-b-c correction from its 12/13 high and that is BULLISH - we could see new all-time highs by early January.

Silver – Silver tested $24.39 on Tuesday before falling in 5-waves – this is a SELL SIGNAL but strength in gold could keep silver prices from falling too far into January.

Crude Oil – Crude oil’s move off of $70 does not look impulsive – we could see a retest of $70 this week.

Dollar Index – The USD may have made an important low at 103.45 last Thursday – the USD only gave us a 3-wave correction Monday night after the BOJ raised rates in Japan.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 12/20 and 12/23, the New Moon.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - December 18, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX continued to decline into quad-witching Friday and gave us a partial gap fill before rebounding into the close. In our view, the SPX made an important double top on 12/13 (in our 12/13-12/14 turn window) and started a big move down (led by large Dark Pool volume on the 12/14 Fed Day). The SPX did make an important gap fill late Friday and bounced into the close. Statistically, the big plunge down below 3900 on Thursday is usually followed by heavy selling on Monday and Tuesday. From a seasonality point of view, the SPX makes a low between 12/13 and 12/21. We have turn windows this week on 12/20 and 12/23 – the Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turn window in our work and if Tuesday comes in as a low for the week, we will expect a bounce into the 12/23 New Moon on Friday. Just a corrective bounce into the 12/23 New Moon will argue for more downside after the X-mas holiday. We still recommend 80% cash and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

12/18/22 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX sold off hard after double testing 2100 on 12/13. After the cooler than expected CPI report early 12/13, the E-mini made a high for the move off of 10/13 at 4180. However, we saw massive selling coming in at the open on Tuesday by hedge fund traders that took their profits and went home for the holidays. On Fed Day, when traders expected big volatility from the lips of Chairman Powell, big Dark Pool volume came in and sold the market down to close below the key SPY 389 level. The SPX did make a partial gap fill Friday afternoon that led to a bounce into the close. Our bias is that the SPX double peaked at 4100 and has started the next leg down in the bear market into January. We have not seen a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 so far but do believe that lower lows are due in Q1 2023 for the stock market. Crude oil’s advance did not look impulsive last week and that could generate a retest of $70 in the coming week. Hedge funds have gone heavily short energy stocks since 11/14 and that trade worked well into Friday's close. Silver made a multi-month high on 12/13 at $24.39 but then reversed down in 5-waves for a SELL SIGNAL The USD may have made an important low on 12/15 at 103.45 and how the USD trades will set the tone for several markets including gold and silver.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made a partial gap-fill and bounced into Friday’s close but the plunge under 3900 on Thursday argues for more heavy selling on Monday and Tuesday which would give us an EW 5-waves down from 12/13 and a SELL SIGNAl. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q1 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Monday is an important day for the GDX – do we get a 5-wave decline or not – this will determine the short-term trend.  We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Jan/Feb.

Stocks – We believe that the SPX started the next leg down after double-testing 4100 on the 12/13 open – closing below SPY 389 on Thursday was bearish. The Tuesday after a monthly expiration, 12/20, is a turn window in our work.

Gold – An EW 5-waves down from $1836 last week would be a SELL SIGNAL.

Silver – Silver tested $24.39 on Tuesday before falling in 5-waves – this is a SELL SIGNAL.

Crude Oil – Crude oil’s move off of $70 does not look impulsive – we could see a retest of $70 this week.

Dollar Index – The USD may have made an important low at 103.45 last Thursday – how we trade on Monday is key.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 12/20 and 12/23, the New Moon.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - December 15, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX closed below 3900 - has the next leg down in the bear market started?  Maybe, but we will need to see an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart for confirmation. For tomorrow, we could see an undercut low below below 3879.45 early before a retracement rally and then a weak close - it should be a volatile day. The next turn window will be 12/20 and if this is a low, we could see a secondary high into the 12/23 New Moon. The SPX did double top at 4100 in our 12/13-12/14 turn window but bearishly diverged with the E-mini which made a higher high on 12/13. The market is treacherous here and staying in cash is the smart play until we see a confirmed trend. Crude oil has not given us a clean 5-wave rally from the $70 level so a retest of $70 is still possible. Gold fell to test $1784 - an EW 5-wave decline on the hourly chart would give us a SELL SIGNAL. The USD bounced to test 104.87 and pressured the PM sector down. 

12/15/22 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX undercut 3900 in the mourning and then flushed down hard into the afternoon as we approach Friday's quad-witching. The usual December seasonality sees a low from 12/13 to12/21 but today's breakdown under 3900 argues for heavy selling on the Monday/Tuesday after expiration. The VXX is trying to break out from its downtrend line which could signal a bigger decline in the SPX into our 12/20 turn window. We have not seen a SPX capitulation or a VIX blow off in 2022 so far but do believe that lower lows are due in Q1 2023 for the stock market no matter how high the SPX rallies in the next two weeks. Crude oil gave us a modest 3-wave decline today but has yet to rally in a clean 5-waves from the $70 level level which argue for a roundtrip back down. Gold declined again but has yet to give us an EW 5-waves down from $1833 - we are bearish. The USD bounced higher today to 104.87 and that pressured gold and silver down. We remain in 80% cask and 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX tested 4100 after the CPI report and started a correction that is continuing into quad-witching Friday the Fed Day. The SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by Q1 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down into Jan/Feb.

Stocks – Our Option Premium Ratio sell signal came in with a vengeance today as the SPX plunged under 3900 - we are bearish and are looking for big volatility on quad-witching Friday. 

Gold – Gold plunged under $1800 pre-market and looks bearish.

Silver – Silver is tracing out 5-waves down on the hourly chart Thursday evening and that is a SELL SIGNAL.

Crude Oil – Crude oil has not given us a clean 5-waves up from the $70 low last week so a retest of $70 is still possible.

Dollar Index – The USD bounced to 104.87 and is pressuring the PM sector.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn windows for this week are 12/12 and 12/14.