We are still on travel with limited access to the internet, so our reports will be brief.
Folks,
Market Observations for the Week: The SPX declined in 3-waves from early 11/1 into 11/3 and then rallied in a 3-wave B-Wave that tested 3860 on today's Full Moon. We then reversed down impulsively which may have been the start of a C-wave down that could test 3700 again or lower in the 11/8-11/10 turn window. Today was in the orb of a 3-star critical reversal day for the SPX and it came in as a HIGH. our bias is for a decline down into the 11/10 CPI report which could set the short-term trend for the SPX. The markets may be anticipating a Republican sweep of Congress. Bitcoin plunged below 20000 on the FTX woes which is bearish for the SPX. Our technicals and astro-finance work argue for a B-Wave test of the 10/13 low near 3500 - let's see how this idea works out. -
11/08/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) The CPI report early Thursday could set the market tone into the weekend and it has the power of putting in a short-term SPX low. If the SPX does fall into early Thursday, our favored groups to buy will be the oil stocks and maybe AAPL. Bitcoin's plunge below 20000 is a bearish tell for the SPX. Crude oil pulled back today on the Full Moon. Gold and silver also rallied up into the Full Moon before correcting. The market is now entering one of the most important weeks of the year in terms of astro-finance and the mid-term elections. We are expecting big volatility this week in the SPX and traders will need to be agile around the 11/8 mid-term US election which could be fraught with drama. The 10-yr US rate has only corrected in 3-waves on the hourly here and its trend is still higher which is a risk to the SPX and PM sector.
Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.
Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year as global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates can still pressure the PM sector down.
Stocks – The SPX started a B-Wave early Thursday that may have peaked today at 3860 - we may have started a C-Wave down into the 11/8-11/10 turn window. The negative EW pattern of the SPX daily and the confluence of astro-finance aspects have us looking for a "hard landing" in the 11/8-11/10 Full Moon Timing Window + lunar eclipse before a sharp reversal higher.
Gold – Gold gave us an undercut low to $1618 early Thursday and then bounced up to test $1720 on today's Full Moon - a fast $100 gain. Is this the start of a bigger rally? How we trade into Friday will tell us.
Silver – Silver took out $21.50 on today's Full Moon - just a corrective pullback here would be bullish.
Crude Oil – Crude oil dropped correctively into the Full Moon today.
Dollar Index – The USD has only given us a 3-wave correction from 10/20 - we could test the recent highs near 114 by next week.
TURNING POINT DAY
The turn window for this week is 11/8-11/10, and this includes a Full Moon/lunar eclipse,
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