We are still on travel with limited access to the internet, so our reports will be brief.
Folks,
Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us a low volume rally Monday as we approach the Full Moon and mid-term elections tomorrow. Today was a 3-star critical reversal day for the SPX and it came in more like a HIGH than a LOW which is bearish if the SPX hangs up going into Full Moon tomorrow. The markets are anticipating a split Congress tomorrow but more election strife in tight elections would not be digested well. The multitude of astro-finance aspects will be behind us by the end of the week, so we are expecting an important trend change by Friday. Our technicals and astro-finance work argue for a B-Wave test of the 10/13 low near 3500 - let's see how this idea works out - a test of SPX 3500 would be a short-term buy signal in the stocks that we favor (the oil stocks for one}. The 3-wave decline in the SPX from 11/1 into 11/3 diminishes the possibility of an "impulsive mini-crash" this week in our mind. Bitcoin held above 21000 again Friday which is a positive for the market. Both the SPX and gold pulled back into the NFP jobs report and rebounded on Friday after the report was released.
11/07/22 (Commentary for Monday) The CPI report early Thursday could set the market tone into the weekend and it has the power of putting in a short-term SPX low. If the SPX does fall into early Thursday, our favored groups to buy will be the oil stocks and maybe AAPL. Bitcoin continues to hold above 20000 which is bullish for the SPX. Crude oil is rallying up into the 11/8-11/10 Full Moon Timing Window and we like crude oil on pullbacks here. Gold and silver are also rallying up into the Full Moon. The market is now entering one of the most important weeks of the year in terms of astro-finance and the mid-term elections. We are expecting big volatility this week in the SPX and traders will need to be agile around the 11/8 mid-term US election which could be fraught with drama. The 10-yr US rate has only corrected in 3-waves on the hourly here and its trend is still higher which is a risk to the SPX and PM sector.
Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.
Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year as global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates can still pressure the PM sector down.
Stocks – The SPX did bounce after the NFP jobs report on Friday and into Monday, but the trend still looks down into the 11/8-11/10 turn window. The negative EW pattern of the SPX daily and the confluence of astro-finance aspects have us looking for a "hard landing" in the 11/8-11/10 Full Moon Timing Window + lunar eclipse before a sharp reversal higher.
Gold – Gold gave us an undercut low to $1618 early Thursday and then bounced up to test $1680 on Friday after the NFP jobs report - just a corrective pullback to the 11/8 Full Moon would be bullish for more rally.
Silver – Silver tested $21 on Friday - just a corrective pullback to the 11/8 Full Moon would be bullish.
Crude Oil – If the SPX continues its decline into the 11/8-11/10 turn window, we will be inclined to buy SLB or XOM on dips.
Dollar Index – The USD has only given us a 3-wave correction from 10/20 - we could test the recent highs near 114 by next week.
TURNING POINT DAY
The turn window for this week is 11/8-11/10, and this includes a Full Moon/lunar eclipse,
Comments