All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 15, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX tested 4028 and started a correction that should continue into tomorrow's turn window. Just a 3-wave SPX correction into 11/16-11/17, the 34-day Fibonacci step out, would be a bullish setup for higher prices and perhaps a test of the 200-dma at SPX 4050. We did get a powerful turn in the 11/8-11/10 turn window, but we still believe that this is just a bear market rally that has lower lows to make in the intermediate term.  

11/15/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) The PPI inflation report came in lighter than anticipated and the SPX spiked to 4028 before starting a pullback. Just a 3-wave pullback into the 34-day step out on 11/16-11/17 would be a bullish setup for a test of the SPX 200-dma around 4050.   Our EW interpretation of the rally from 10/13 is that we started a 3rd wave of C higher on Thursday of a large a-b-c bear market correction and we may have started a 4th of C corrective wave today. After a 3-wave bounce into Tuesday, Bitcoin appears ready to rollover - an undercut low below 14925 is likely by Friday. Crude oil bounced correctively to $87.50 but a H&S pattern on the hourly chart makes us cautious here - how the pattern resolves into Friday is key.  Gold spiked to $1791 but then corrected sideways which is bullish. The USD may have finished a 3-wave correction to 105.34 today and we could be close to a reversal higher. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX rally from Thursday does not change our bias that the market rally from 10/13 is just a "bear market" rally. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down.

Stocks – On lighter than expected PPI numbers, the SPX tested new highs for the rally at 4028 before selling off into the close - the SPX may have started a 4th wave correction into the 11/16-11/17 turn window. 

Gold – Gold tested $1791 on Tuesday before correcting sideways into the evening which looks bullish.

Silver – Silver tested $22.38 before pulling back late.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested bounced to $87.50 but a possible H&S top on the hourly chart is keeping us cautious.

Dollar Index – The USD may have completed its 3-wave correction at 105.34 today.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/16-11/17 - the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 10/13 low.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 14, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX rallied up to 4008.97 Monday before falling back late into the close. We may have started a 4th wave into the 11/16 turn window and traders may have gotten some advance notice of the PPI inflation numbers for early tomorrow.  Just a 3-wave SPX correction into 11/16, the 34-day Fibonacci step out, would be a bullish setup for higher prices this week and perhaps a test of the 200-dms at SPX 4050. We did get a powerful turn in the 11/8-11/10 turn window, but we still believe that this is just a bear market rally that has  lower lows to make in the intermediate term.  

11/14/22 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX will be tested by the PPI inflation report early Tuesday and if the report comes in hotter than expected, we could see some early volatility. But, just a 3-wave pullback into the 34-day step out on Wednesday would be a bullish setup for a test of the SPX 200-dma around 4050.  On Monday, the SPX overcame early fallout from the FTX bankruptcy to make higher highs around 4009 before falling into the close - numbers from the PPI inflation report may have been leaked early. Our EW interpretation of the rally from 10/13 is that we started a 3rd wave of C higher on Thursday of a large a-b-c bear market correction and we may have started a 4th of C corrective wave near the close today. After a 3-wave bounce on Thursday, Bitcoin appears to need an undercut low below 14925 going into Tuesday. Based on weak global demand estimates from OPEC, crude oil rolled over late today to test $85.  Gold tested $1780 before rolling over to test its Person's pivot at $1769. The USD is correcting hard in a C-Wave down of an EW a-b-c correction - a break below 106.281 should end the C-Wave down. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The Thursday/Friday stock rally does not change our bias that the market rally from 10/13 is just a "bear market" rally. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down.

Stocks – The SPX tested new highs for the rally at 4009 before selling off into the close . did someone leak the PPI numbers before the close?

Gold – Gold tested $1780  on Monday as we have another solar-lunar Big Range Day.

Silver – Silver tested its R1 pivot resistance at $22.19 before pulling back late.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $85 on weak demand estimates from OPEC.

Dollar Index – The USD is coming down hard in a C-Wave that could still undercut 106.28.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/16 - the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 10/13 low.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - November 13, 2022

We are still on travel with limited access to the internet, so our reports will be brief.

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX reversed higher, as we had predicted, in the 11/8-11/10 turn window. For this week, how we navigate the 34-day Fibonacci step out on 11/16 will be key. The explosive rally on Thursday was Wave 3 of C higher and may have found resistance at SPX 4000 on Friday. Just a 3-wave SPX correction into 11/16, the 34-day Fibonacci step out, would be a bullish setup for higher prices this week and perhaps a test of the 200-dms at SPX 4050. We did get a powerful turn in the 11/8-11/10 turn window, but we still believe that this is still a bear market rally that has  lower lows to make in the intermediate term.  

11/13/22 (Commentary for Sunday) The cooler than expected CPI report launched a massive short-covering rally on Thursday and gave us the biggest rally in the Nasdaq in years that continued into Friday. A target for this rally could take us to test the 200-dma around SPX 4100 by the 34-day Fibonacci step out on 11/16. The PPI inflation report on 11/15 will be a check on wholesale inflation and could give us a correction into the 11/16 turn window. For Monday, more concerns about the bailout of FTX could bring us back some on the SPX in a 4th wave correction. Our EW interpretation of the rally from 10/13 is that we started a 3rd wave of C higher on Thursday of a large a-b-c bear market correction and we may have ended the 3rd wave of C late Friday. After a 3-wave bounce on Bitcoin on Thursday, it appears to be rolling over for an undercut low below 14925 late Sunday. Crude oil continues to bounce into Sunday evening and is testing $90.  Gold is testing $1776 Sunday night. The USD is correcting hard in a C-Wave down of an EW a-b-c correction. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The Thursday/Friday stock rally does not change our bias that the market rally from 10/13 is just a "bear market" rally. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year as global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates can still pressure the PM sector down.

Stocks – The SPX rally continued on Friday and tested .618 resistance near 4000. A test of the 200-dma near SPX 4050 is expected this week.

Gold – Gold is testing $1776 Sunday evening and we have another Big Range Day on Monday.

Silver – Silver is doing a 3-wave correction that could test $21.38.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $90 Sunday evening.

Dollar Index – The USD is coming down hard in a C-Wave that has more to go.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/16 - the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 10/13 low.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 10, 2022

We are still on travel with limited access to the internet, so our reports will be brief.

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The CPI report came in cooler than expected this morning and the futures erupted higher pre-market. The excess bearishness that showed itself to us in elevated TRIN-5 levels, high closing TRIN levels, a yearly high CBOE equity put/call ratio of 1.30 on Tuesday, etc. expressed itself today in massive short-covering. The SPX could now rally for at least a test of the 200-dms at SPX 4050 by the Fibonacci 34-day step out from the 10/13 low by November 16.  We did get a powerful turn in the 11/8-11/10 turn window, but we still believe that this is still a bear market rally that has more to run in time and lower lows to make.  

11/10/22 (Commentary for Thursday) The cooler than expected CPI report launched a massive short-covering rally and gave us the biggest rally in the Nasdaq in years. A target for this rally could take us to test the 200-dma around SPX 4100 by the 34-day Fibonacci step out on 11/16. For tomorrow, more concerns about the bailout of FTX could bring us back some on the SPX but we expect more buying since the next inflation report (PPI report) won't be out until 11/15. Our EW interpretation of the rally from 10/13 is that we started a 3rd wave of C higher today of a large a-b-c bear market correction. Bitcoin gave us a 3-wave rally that tested 18000 before pulling back overnight and that could be a bearish tell for the SPX. Crude oil gave us a small corrective looking bounce today that didn't benefit much from the plunging USD.  Gold exploded to $1760 today on falling rates and the hope of a "real Fed pivot" sooner than later. The USD came down hard today and and brought calls of an important top being made near 114.  We expect big volatility tomorrow in the SPX and our bias is that traders will be buying the dips. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Today's rally does not change our bias that the market rally from 10/13 is just a "bear market" rally. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year as global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates can still pressure the PM sector down.

Stocks – The SPX exploded on short-covering after the weaker-than-expected CPI report ran the bears that had been hovering around this market for the last week.

Gold – Gold found support for the third time near $1620 last week and today exploded to $1760.  Closing far above $1730 resistance today was very bullish for gold.

Silver – Silver tested $22 today  - just a corrective pullback after the CPI report would be bullish.

Crude Oil – Crude oil only gave us a small corrective bounce on the falling USD today and this looked bearish.

Dollar Index – The USD plunged today on the weaker than expected CPI report - have we seen the high in the USD for this cycle?

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/8-11/10, and this includes a Full Moon/lunar eclipse,

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 9, 2022

We are still on travel with limited access to the internet, so our reports will be brief.

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  How the market reacts to the CPI report will set the tone for the SPX into next week.  Fallout from the FTX fiasco continued to pressure the market today as the market digested the absence of a "Red Wave" in the US mid-term elections last night. Some kind of correction low is due in the 11/8-11/10 turn window but we are not chasing the downside here.   Bitcoin's plunge below 16000 continued to pressure the SPX. A symmetry correction in the SPX from SPX 3911 would take us down to 3650 in case of a very hot CPI report. 

11/09/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) More FTX fallout and "The Red Wave" that never was plagued the stock market today but it is clear that the CPI report will set the market tone into next week. We could see a lot of volatility on Thursday - our bias has us looking for a SPX low and a reversal higher by the close. The TRIN closed at 2.51 which statistically correlates for a rally day on Thursday after the CPI report.  If the SPX does fall into early Thursday, our favored groups to buy will be the oil stocks and maybe AAPL. Bitcoin's continued plunge below 15000 Wednesday night is a bearish tell for the SPX.  Crude oil pulled back to $85.85 Wednesday evening. Gold rallied up to test $1726 in the Full Moon Timing Window. The market is now entering one of the most important weeks of the year in terms of astro-finance and the mid-term elections - how the market handles the CPI report tomorrow is key and will set the tone into next week.  We are expecting big volatility tomorrow in the SPX and traders will need to be agile. The 10-yr US rate has only corrected in 3-waves on the hourly here and its trend is still higher which is a risk to the SPX and PM sector.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year as global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates can still pressure the PM sector down.

Stocks – The SPX started a B-Wave early Thursday that may have peaked today at 3860 - we may have started a C-Wave down into the 11/8-11/10 turn window with a symmetry target of SPX 3750. 

Gold – Gold gave us an undercut low to $1618 early Thursday and then bounced up to test $1720 on today's Full Moon - a fast $100 gain.  Is this the start of a bigger rally? How we trade after the CPI report will tell us.

Silver – Silver took out $21.50 - just a corrective pullback after the CPI report would be bullish.

Crude Oil – Crude oil continued to fall into $85.85 late Wednesday.

Dollar Index – The USD has only given us a 3-wave correction from 10/20 - we could test the recent highs near 114 by next week.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/8-11/10, and this includes a Full Moon/lunar eclipse,

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 8, 2022

We are still on travel with limited access to the internet, so our reports will be brief.

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX declined in 3-waves from early 11/1 into 11/3 and then rallied in a 3-wave B-Wave that tested 3860 on today's Full Moon.  We then reversed down impulsively which may have been the start of a C-wave down that could test 3700 again or lower in the 11/8-11/10 turn window. Today was in the orb of a 3-star critical reversal day for the SPX and it came in as a HIGH.  our bias is for a decline down into the 11/10 CPI report which could set the short-term trend for the SPX. The markets may be anticipating a Republican sweep of Congress. Bitcoin plunged below 20000 on the FTX woes which is bearish for the SPX. Our technicals and astro-finance work argue for a B-Wave test of the 10/13 low near 3500 - let's see how this idea works out. -

11/08/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) The CPI report early Thursday could set the market tone into the weekend and it has the power of putting in a short-term SPX low. If the SPX does fall into early Thursday, our favored groups to buy will be the oil stocks and maybe AAPL. Bitcoin's plunge below 20000 is a bearish tell for the SPX. Crude oil pulled back today on the Full Moon. Gold and silver also rallied up into the Full Moon before correcting. The market is now entering one of the most important weeks of the year in terms of astro-finance and the mid-term elections.  We are expecting big volatility this week in the SPX and traders will need to be agile around the 11/8 mid-term US election which could be fraught with drama. The 10-yr US rate has only corrected in 3-waves on the hourly here and its trend is still higher which is a risk to the SPX and PM sector.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year as global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates can still pressure the PM sector down.

Stocks – The SPX started a B-Wave early Thursday that may have peaked today at 3860 - we may have started a C-Wave down into the 11/8-11/10 turn window. The negative EW pattern of the SPX daily and the confluence of astro-finance aspects have us looking for a "hard landing" in the 11/8-11/10 Full Moon Timing Window + lunar eclipse before a sharp reversal higher.

Gold – Gold gave us an undercut low to $1618 early Thursday and then bounced up to test $1720 on today's Full Moon - a fast $100 gain.  Is this the start of a bigger rally? How we trade into Friday will tell us.

Silver – Silver took out $21.50  on today's Full Moon - just a corrective pullback here would be bullish.

Crude Oil – Crude oil dropped correctively into the Full Moon today.

Dollar Index – The USD has only given us a 3-wave correction from 10/20 - we could test the recent highs near 114 by next week.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/8-11/10, and this includes a Full Moon/lunar eclipse,

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 7, 2022

We are still on travel with limited access to the internet, so our reports will be brief.

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX gave us a low volume rally Monday as we approach the Full Moon and mid-term elections tomorrow. Today was a 3-star critical reversal day for the SPX and it came in more like a HIGH than a LOW which is bearish if the SPX hangs up going into Full Moon tomorrow. The markets are anticipating a split Congress tomorrow but more election strife in tight elections would not be digested well. The multitude of astro-finance aspects will be behind us by the end of the week, so we are expecting an important trend change by Friday. Our technicals and astro-finance work argue for a B-Wave test of the 10/13 low near 3500 - let's see how this idea works out - a test of SPX 3500 would be a short-term buy signal in the stocks that we favor (the oil stocks for one}. The 3-wave decline in the SPX from 11/1 into 11/3 diminishes the possibility of an "impulsive mini-crash" this week in our mind. Bitcoin held above 21000 again Friday which is a positive for the market. Both the SPX and gold pulled back into the NFP jobs report and rebounded on Friday after the report was released.

11/07/22 (Commentary for Monday) The CPI report early Thursday could set the market tone into the weekend and it has the power of putting in a short-term SPX low. If the SPX does fall into early Thursday, our favored groups to buy will be the oil stocks and maybe AAPL. Bitcoin continues to hold above 20000 which is bullish for the SPX. Crude oil is rallying up into the 11/8-11/10 Full Moon Timing Window and we like crude oil on pullbacks here. Gold and silver are also rallying up into the Full Moon. The market is now entering one of the most important weeks of the year in terms of astro-finance and the mid-term elections.  We are expecting big volatility this week in the SPX and traders will need to be agile around the 11/8 mid-term US election which could be fraught with drama. The 10-yr US rate has only corrected in 3-waves on the hourly here and its trend is still higher which is a risk to the SPX and PM sector.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year as global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates can still pressure the PM sector down.

Stocks – The SPX did bounce after the NFP jobs report on Friday and into Monday, but the trend still looks down into the 11/8-11/10 turn window. The negative EW pattern of the SPX daily and the confluence of astro-finance aspects have us looking for a "hard landing" in the 11/8-11/10 Full Moon Timing Window + lunar eclipse before a sharp reversal higher.

Gold – Gold gave us an undercut low to $1618 early Thursday and then bounced up to test $1680 on Friday after the NFP jobs report - just a corrective pullback to the 11/8 Full Moon would be bullish for more rally.

Silver – Silver tested $21 on Friday - just a corrective pullback to the 11/8 Full Moon would be bullish.

Crude Oil – If the SPX continues its decline into the 11/8-11/10 turn window, we will be inclined to buy SLB or XOM on dips.

Dollar Index – The USD has only given us a 3-wave correction from 10/20 - we could test the recent highs near 114 by next week.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/8-11/10, and this includes a Full Moon/lunar eclipse,

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - November 6, 2022

We are still on travel with limited access to the internet, so our reports will be brief.

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The Fed day on Wednesday came with a "dovish statement" which initially excited the markets but a hawkish press conference from Chairman Powell turned the tide down. The Fed is determined to bring inflation down and will keep raising rates until something breaks in the global financial markets. The NFP jobs report on Friday came in stronger than expected but the bulls saw something they liked in the wage growth numbers and the SPX closed positive for the day. Still, our technicals and astro-finance work arues for a high early this week and then a potential decline into the Full Moon Timing Window on 11/8-11/10. Our EW count on the daily chafrt from the 1/4 high shows a potential 1-2, i-ii count that indicates a potential 3rd wave down may be in play and this possibility must be respected.  Bitcoin held above 21000 again Friday which is a positive for the market. Both the SPX and gold pulled back into the NFP jobs report and rebounded on Friday after the report was released.

11/06/22 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX and gold declined into the key NFP jobs report and then rallied on the news on Friday.  The market is now entering one of the most important weeks of the year in terms of astro-finance and the mid-term elections. The EW count of the daily SPX chart is showing a possible nested 1-2, i-ii pattern that could indicate that we are either in a 3rd of a 3rd wave down or a 3rd of a C-wave down. We have a 3-star critical reversal day for the SPX on 11/9 - if the SPX can rally to a higher high than 3911, this could mark an important HIGH. However, it appears to us that SPX 3911 was an important high last week, and we are heading down into an important low in the 11/8-11/10 Full moon Timing Window which includes a lunar eclipse. So, we are looking for an important low around 9/9 and then a reversal higher in the SPX as we pass through the hurricane of astro-finance aspects coming this week. We are expecting big volatility this week in the SPX and traders will need to be agile around the 11/8 mid-term US election which could be fraught with drama. These are treacherous markets, and we prefer to stay in 100% cash beyond our physical metals position. Bitcoin has closed above key resistance at 20000 on Friday and that is encouraging to the bulls. The 10-yr US rate has only corrected in 3-waves on the hourly here and its trend is still higher which is a risk to the SPX and PM sector.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-5market 0% correction by spring 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year as global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates can still pressure the PM sector down.

Stocks – The SPX did bounce after the NFP jobs report on Friday, but the trend still looks down into the 11/8 mid-term elections. The negative EW pattern of the SPX daily and the confluence of astro-finance aspects have us looking for a "hard landing" in the 11/8-11/10 Full Moon Timing Window + lunar eclipse before a sharp reversal higher.

Gold – Gold gave us an undercut low to $1618 early Thursday and then bounced up to test $1680 on Friday after the NFP jobs report - just a corrective pullback to the 11/8 Full Moon would be bullish.

Silver – Silver tested $21 on Friday - just a corrective pullback to the 11/8 Full Moon would be bullish.

Crude Oil – Our view remains that the OIH (oil service) stocks are leading crude oil higher for its next leg higher - if the SPX continues its decline into the 11/8-11/10 turn window, we will be inclined to buy SLB or XOM on dips.

Dollar Index – The USD has only given us a 3-wave correction from 10/20 - we could test the recent highs near 114 by next week.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/8-11/10, and this includes a Full Moon/lunar eclipse,

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 3, 2022

We are still on travel with limited access to the internet, so our reports will be brief.

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  After a brief rally attempt early in the session, the SPX continued to subdivide down as we approach the NFP jobs report early Friday, The 21-day Fibonacci step out may have either already come in as the HIGH after the Fed statement yesterday or will come in early tomorrow if the NFP jobs report comes in cooler than expected and the SPX gets an undercut low.  Bitcoin held above 20000 again today which is a positive for the market. The market now is looking for the NFP jobs report early Friday and a stronger than expected jobs creation number could further pressure the SPX.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year as global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates can still pressure the PM sector down.

Stocks – The SPX failed give us a strong reversal early Thursday and instead continued to subdivide down in bearish fashion.  Tomorrow is the NFP jobs report, and we could see a reversal higher early on a weaker than expected report - if not, the SPX could fall into next week's 3-star critical reversal day.

Gold – Gold gave us an undercut low to $1618 early Thursday and then bounced to $1635 - a stronger than expected NFP jobs report would pressure gold back down to test weekly lows.  

Silver – Silver bullishly diverged from gold and held above its recent lows, but the silver stocks look weak.

Crude Oil – Our view remains that the OIH (oil service) stocks are leading crude oil higher for its next leg higher - if the SPX continues its decline into next week's 3-star critical reversal day, we will be inclined to buy SLB or XOM on dips.

Dollar Index – The USD has only given us a 3-wave correction from 10/20 - we could test the recent highs near 114 by next week.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/4, the NFP jobs report.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 2, 2022

We are still on travel with limited access to the internet, so our reports will be brief.

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The Fed raised the FFR by 75-basis pts. as expected but Powell's hawkish rhetoric broke the SPX down below SPX 3800 into the close. The 21-day Fibonacci step out from 10/13 falls early tomorrow and the bulls need a sharp reversal higher early Thursday to reverse the bearish tone from late Wednesday.  Bitcoin held above 20000 during Fed day which is a positive. The market now is looking for the NFP jobs report early Friday and a stronger than expected jobs creation number could further pressure the SPX.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year as global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates can still pressure the PM sector down.

Stocks – The Fed gave us a 75-basis pt rate hike and a dovish sounding statement but when Powell started speaking, he sounded more hawkish as time passed and the SPX responded by falling into the close and closing below 3800. Tomorrow is the 21-day Fibonacci step out from the 10/13 low and we could see a reversal higher early - if not, the market could fall into next week's 3-star critical reversal day.

Gold – Gold bottomed at $1621 on 10/21, its 3-star critical reversal day, but the rally since looks corrective and leaves this market open to a retest of $1621.

Silver – Silver rallied in an EW 5-waves up from 10/14 into 3:00 pm today then started a correction.

Crude Oil – Crude oil sold off into the close, but the OIH(the oil service stocks) suggests that we started a new upleg higher.

Dollar Index – The USD has given us just a 3-wave correction into today - we could still test the recent highs at 114.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/2-11/3.