All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 30, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX declined into Powell's speech at 1:30 PM EST and then a massive short-covering kicked in and launched the SPX to a close above the 200-dma at 4080.11. Our change of bias for lower prices into 12/2-12/7 WAS WRONG and the SPX gap at 4100 looks like a magnet and could be achieved by tomorrow. The SPX will likely test its  downtrend line from the 1/4/22 high before the rally from 10/13 tops out somewhere between 12/1 and 12/14. This market is very treacherous to trade and we need to see an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart before we consider a small short position - we remain in 80% cash and 20% in physical gold and silver. After giving us an undercut low to $73.6, crude oil bounced to test $81.50 today - hedge funds are heavy on the short side of energy stocks here and could be run out if the price of crude oil keeps rallying. Bitcoin is testing 17000 Wednesday night, but we still have our December target below 10000. Gold and silver are testing multi-week highs as the USD retests its low for the week at 105.3.

11/30/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) The DJIA and SPX corrected into Powell's speech today and then reversed sharply higher taking out their highs from the 11/23-11/25 New Moon Timing Window. Taking out the New Moon highs is BULLISH and argues for higher highs into the 12/7-12/14 turn window. The SPX closed above its 200-dma(4050.30) at 4080.11 and should be drawn to fill its gap at 4100 soon. The Fed-watched PCE inflation report early Thursday will be closely followed by traders but traders have been energized to buy dips here. The SPX and DJIA  both made higher highs after the 34-day step out from 10/13 on 11/16 which is bullish for higher prices going into 12/14. Bitcoin is spiking to test 17000 Wednesday night and that is bullish for early SPX strength on Thursday. Crude oil rallied in 5-waves and is testing $81.50 Wednesday night - hedge funds have gone heavily short energy stocks recently which could backfire if crude oil can keep rallying.  Gold and silver shot up to multi-week highs late Wednesday as the USD fell to test lows for the week around 105.3. Gold has a monthly tendency to decline into the monthly NFP jobs report this Friday - we'll see if the PM sector pulls back into Friday. The USD gave us an EW 5-wave down on the hourly chart into early Monday and then only a 3-wave bounce into Tuesday evening - this is a bearish signal.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Our market bias is that the SPX could rally into mid-December or 12/7-12/14. Even so, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down.

Stocks – Both the DJIA and SPX have taken out their respective highs from the 11/23-11/25 New Moon Timing Window which is bullish and the SPX gave us a Large Positive Volume Reversal higher today as it closed decisively above its 200-dma which is also bullish.  

Gold – Gold rallied to multi-week highs late Wednesday as the USD reversed down to test lows for the week at 105.3.

Silver – Silver rallied to multi-week highs as the USD pulled back late.

Crude Oil – Crude oil rallied in 5-waves to test $81.5 on Wednesday - hedge funds are heavily short the energy stocks here.

Dollar Index – After 5-waves down on the hourly chart into early Monday, the USD only bounced correctively into Tuesday and this looks bearish.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/02 on the NFP jobs report.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 29, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX continued its correction today did not bounce into Powell's speech on Wednesday that like we expected. The market may not be expecting any dovish statements from Powell Wednesday afternoon. Our short-term bias is for an EW a-b-c correction into Friday's NFP jobs report or the 12/7 Full Moon. The NFP jobs report on early Friday will be an important data point for the market - weaker than expected jobs creation should generate a rally. Monthly seasonality typically brings the SPX back into the NFP report and hawkish words from Powell may accomplish this. Because of the extent of the market pullback, our bias has changed for lower DJIA and SPX prices into 12/2-12/7 which is close to our next 3-star critical reversal day on 12/6. The closing spike of the CBOE equity put/call to 1.36 last Wednesday is another "bearish excess" data point that keeps us looking for higher levels in the SPX and DJIA into 12/14. The SPX will likely test its 200-dma or its downtrend line from the 1/4/22 high before the rally from 10/13 tops out somewhere between 12/8 and 12/14 and we are just sitting on our hands here. This market is very treacherous to trade and we need to see an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart before we consider a small short position. After giving us an undercut low to $73.6, crude oil bounced to test $79 - hedge funds are heavy on the short side of energy stocks here and could be run out if the price of crude gets a lift. Bitcoin is spiking to its R2 resistance pivot at 16723 Tuesday night but we still have our December target below 10000. The USD appears to be giving us just a 3-wave corrective bounce into Tuesday so far but Powell's comments on Wednesday will give us some volatility.

11/29/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) The DJIA and SPX made their highs for the week on Friday into the 11/23-11/25 New Moon Timing Window and on Monday they started a 3-wave correction that could continue into the NFP jobs report on Friday or the 12/7 Full Moon. If the E-mini does give us an EW 5-waves down on its hourly chart followed by just a 3-wave bounce, we will consider this a SELL SIGNAL and will look to short. The SPX could now give us a bounce into Powell's public comments on Fed policy on Wednesday and then trace out an EW a-b-c into Friday's NFP jobs report. The SPX and DJIA  both made higher highs after the 34-day step out from 10/13 on 11/16 which is bullish for higher prices going into 12/14. Bitcoin is spiking Tuesday night and that is bullish for early SPX strength on Wednesday. Crude oil rallied in 5-waves and is testing $79 Tuesday night - hedge funds have gone heavily short energy stocks recently which could backfire if crude oil can keep rallying.  Gold bounced back on Tuesday and is starting to coil - Powell's comments on Wednesday could bring volatility - gold has a monthly tendency to decline into the monthly NFP jobs report this Friday. The USD gave us an EW 5-wave down on the hourly chart into early Monday and then only a 3-wave bounce into Tuesday evening - this could be a bearish signal.

 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Our market bias is that the SPX could hold up into mid-December or 12/8-12/14. Even so, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down.

Stocks – Both the DJIA and SPX have taken out their respective highs from 11/15 as they rallied into the 11/23-11/25 New Moon Timing Window. The SPX declined into early Tuesday and only bounced correctively - this looks bearish for more decline. How we trade on Wednesday is key.

Gold – Gold rallied back on Tuesday but still has a tendency to pull back into Friday's NFP jobs report.

Silver – Silver started to coil late on Tuesday as the USD bounced correctively. Silver has a tendency to pull back into Friday's NFP jobs report.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $73.6 Monday before reversing higher to test $79 - hedge funds are heavily short the energy stocks here.

Dollar Index – After 5-waves down on the hourly chart into early Monday, the USD only bounced correctively into Tuesday and this looks bearish.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/02 on the NFP jobs report.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 28, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX rallied into the 11/23-11/25 New Moon Timing Window and did start some corrective action on Monday - the traders that shorted Friday's close were correct. Our short-term bias is for a bounce on Tuesday as we get near the public comments from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday. The NFP jobs report on early Friday will also be an important data point. Monthly seasonality typically brings the market back into the NFP report and hawkish words from Powell may accomplish this. However, our TRIN-5 indicator remains neutral at ~ 5.25  and the VIX may be just giving us a corrective bounce after a 3rd wave down. Our bias is for higher DJIA and SPX prices into 12/8 or so which is close to our next 3-star critical reversal day on 12/6. The closing spike of the CBOE equity put/call to 1.36 last Wednesday is another "bearish excess" data point that keeps us looking for higher levels in the SPX and DJIA into mid-December. The SPX will likely test its 200-dma or its downtrend line from the 1/4/22 high before the rally from 10/13 tops out somewhere between 12/8 and 12/14 and we are just sitting on our hands here. This market is very treacherous to trade and we need to see an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart before we consider a small short position. After giving us an undercut low to $73.6, crude oil bounced to test its Person's Pivot at $77.64. Bitcoin rolled over after the New Moon Timing Window and looks ready to head to our target below 10000. The USD undercut 105.34, but the PM sector sold off in sync with the SPX.

11/28/22 (Commentary for Monday) The DJIA and SPX made their highs for the week on Friday into the 11/23-11/25 New Moon Timing Window and on Monday they started a 3-wave correction that could continue into the NFP jobs report on Friday. The SPX could now give us a bounce into Powell's public comments on Fed policy on Wednesday and could trace out an EW a-b-c into Friday's NFP jobs report. The SPX and DJIA are both making higher highs after the 34-day step out from 10/13 on 11/16 which is bullish for higher prices going into mid-December. Bitcoin is rallying Monday night and that is bullish for early SPX strength on Tuesday. Crude oil tested $73.60 early Monday and is now rallying to test $79 Monday evening.  Gold pulled back on Monday's day session but is rallying into Monday evening as the USD attempts to pull back - gold has a monthly tendency to decline into the monthly NFP jobs report this Friday.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Our market bias is that the SPX could hold up into mid-December or 12/8-12/14. Even so, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down.

Stocks – Both the DJIA and SPX have taken out their respective highs from 11/15 as they rallied into the 11/23-11/25 New Moon Timing Window. Today's correction may have been the start of an EW a-b-c correction into Friday's NFP jobs report.

Gold – Gold has a tendency to pull back into Friday's NFP jobs report.

Silver – Silver gave us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart and a SELL SIGNAL on 11/21 - silver may also pull back into Friday's NFP jobs report.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $73.6 today before reversing higher to test $79 - hedge funds are heavily short the energy stocks here.

Dollar Index – If the USD undercuts 105.34, this will give us a SELL SIGNAL.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 12/02.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - November 27, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX rallied into the 11/23-11/25 New Moon Timing Window and made highs for the week at 4034.02. Our short-term bias is for more rally early Monday before some post-New Moon corrective action. However, our TRIN-5 indicator is neutral at ~ 5 and the VIX appears to have a lower target below 18. Our bias is for higher DJIA and SPX prices into 12/8 or so which is close to our next 3-star critical reversal day on 12/6. The closing spike of the CBOE equity put/call to 1.36 on Wednesday is another "bearish excess" data point that keeps us looking for higher levels in the SPX and DJIA.  The SPX will likely test its 200-dma or its downtrend line from the 1/4/22 high before the rally from 10/13 tops out. This market is very treacherous to trade and we need to see an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart before we think about a small short position. Crude oil appears to be targeting our next level at $70. Bitcoin held up into the New Moon Timing Window but looks ready to reverse lower to our target below 10000. Breaking below 105.34 would be short-term bearish for the USD and a boost for the PM sector.

11/27/22 (Commentary for Sunday) The DJIA and SPX both took out their respective highs from 11/15 and turned us short-term bullish - they are also both making higher highs after the 34-day step out from 10/13 which is bullish for higher prices. After a consolidation from last week, the SPX has rallied with vigor into the 11/23-11/25 New Moon Timing Window and could hold up more into Monday before a brief pullback. After a corrective bounce into the 11/23-11/25 New Moon Timing Window, Bitcoin appears ready to be roll over again - our year-end target is under 10000. Crude oil tested our target of $75 early Monday and then only bounced higher in a 3-wave corrective manner into the New Moon- this is short-term bearish. Gold rallied on Friday and tested $1769 - the slumping crude oil price does help the profitability of gold and silver producers. If the USD undercuts 105.34 on Friday, this will give us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart which should boost the PM sector.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We were wrong about the short-term SELL SIGNAL in the SPX last week and the SPX could continue its rally into next week. Even so, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down.

Stocks – Both the DJIA and SPX have taken out their respective highs from 11/15 as they rallied into the 11/23-11/25 New Moon Timing Window. We could see the SPX rally continue to Monday before a brief correction.

Gold – Gold rallied to $1769 on Friday into the New Moon Timing WIndow - how we trade on Monday will set the short-term trend.

Silver – Silver gave us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart and a SELL SIGNAL on 11/21 - how we trade on Monday will determine the short-term trend.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested our target of $75 but only rallied in a 3-wave bounce into the New Moon which is bearish.

Dollar Index – If the USD undercuts 105.34, this will give us a SELL SIGNAL.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/28.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 24, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX rallied out of the gate on Wednesday's Fed-minutes day and the New Moon pulled it above its 11/15 high at 4028.84. The 11/23-11/25 New Moon Timing Window extends to Friday and we could see higher highs in the DJIA and SPX. The SPX will likely test its 200-dma or its downtrend line from the 1/4/22 high into Friday/Monday. This market is very treacherous to trade and we need to see an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart before we think about a small short position. Crude oil tested our $75 target, reversed higher, and then pulled back into the exact New Moon today.  Bitcoin bounced up to test16,400 on the exact New Moon. On a solar-lunar Big Range Day, gold pulled back to $1719 and then bounced to $1755.  We are bearish on the PM sector. The USD tagged 108 and then pulled back on the New Moon to test the recent low at 105.34.

11/24/22 (Commentary for Thursday) The DJIA and SPX both took out their respective highs from 11/15 and turned us short-term bullish. After a consolidation from last week, the SPX has rallied with vigor into the 11/23-11/25 New Moon Timing Window. The Friday after the US Thanksgiving holiday is statistically bullish, so we expect the SPX to continue its rally and attempt the test its 200-dms at SPX 4060. The Positive Volume Reversal Day for the SPY on 11/18 and the TRIN-5 > 6.00 were positive indicators for the SPX to rally into the statistically positive 11/23-11/25 New Moon Timing Window. For tomorrow, we expect the SPX rally to continue.  After a 3-wave bounce into Thursday night, Bitcoin appears to be rolling over again - an undercut low below 14925 is possible this week. Crude oil tested our target of $75 early Monday but only bounced higher in a 3-wave corrective manner - this is short-term bearish. Gold spiked down to $1719 early Wednesday before bouncing to $1755 late Wednesday - how we trade on the truncated Friday session will enlighten us. If the USD undercuts 105.34 on Friday, this will give us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart which is a SELL SIGNAL.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We were wrong about the short-term SELL SIGNAL in  the SPX and the SPX could continue its rally into next week. Even so, the SPX could still give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down.

Stocks – Both the DJIA and SPX have taken out their respective highs from 11/15 as they rallied into the 11/23-11/25 New Moon Timing Window. We could see the SPX rally continue on Friday and test the 200-dma at 4060.

Gold – Gold spiked down to $1719 early Wednesday and then rebounded to $1755 near the exact New Moon - how we trade on Friday will determine the short-term trend.

Silver – Silver gave us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart and a SELL SIGNAL on Monday - how we trade on Friday will determine the short-term trend.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested our target of $75 but only rallied in a 3-wave bounce which is bearish.

Dollar Index – If the USD undercuts 105.34, this will give us a SELL SIGNAL.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/21.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 22, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  

Our short-term market bias changed from bearish to bullish as the DJIA took out its 11/15 high  today. The New Moon on Wednesday should continue to pull up the DJIA and SPX into the 11/23-11/25 turn window. Our bias is the SPX should take out 4028.84 by Wednesday or Friday. The SPX will likely test its 200-dma or its downtrend line from the 1/4/22 high. This market is very treacherous to trade and we need to see an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart before we think about a small short position. Crude oil tested our $75 target, reversed higher,  and appears to want to spike into the 11/23 New Moon.  Bitcoin has rallied in 5-waves to 16,400 and is also trying to spike into Wednesday's New Moon.  Gold declined in 5-waves and tested $1734 and appears to be bouncing correctively into the New Moon - we are bearish on the PM sector. The USD tested 108 and appears to be pulling back correctively.

11/22/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) We have turned cautious on the SPX to rally above 4028.84 this week. A Positive Volume Reversal Day for the SPY on Friday and a TRIN-5 > 6.00 are positive indicators for the SPX to start this week and the New Moon Wednesday afternoon could hold the SPX and DJIA up into the holiday weekend. Still, the bearish price action in gold and crude oil into Monday and further contagion in the crypto currency sector is a WARNING FLAG to us about a possible DEFLATIONARY WAVE that could hit global stock markets into the Spring of 2023 - the combination of our dominant 20-yr stock cycles and 8-yr gold cycle argue for this.  If the SPX takes out 4028.84 to the upside on Tuesday, this could be short-term bullish for the stock market. After a 3-wave bounce into Friday, Bitcoin appears to be rolling over again - an undercut low below 14925 is possible this week. Crude oil tested our target of $75 early Monday but then bounced quickly to $80 - the New Moon on Wednesday could give us a spike higher. Gold tested $1734 Monday before bouncing - the tape has turned negative against the PM sector. The USD continued to rally and targets 109 in the near term. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX may have peaked on 11/15 at 4028.84 as we got an Option Premium SELL SIGNAL on 11/14. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down.

Stocks – The DJIA took out Friday's high near the open but the Russell 2000, SPX and NDX failed to do so which is bearish. Still the New Moon on Wednesday could hold up the DJIA and SPX into the holiday weekend.

Gold – Gold tested $1734 and bounced on Monday which is bearish for the PM sector.

Silver – Silver gave us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart and a SELL SIGNAL on Monday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested our target of $75 and then bounced to $80.

Dollar Index – The USD continues to rally with a target of 109.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/21.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 21, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  With a Option Premium Ratio SELL SIGNAL last week we are cautious this week and holding near %100 cash. However, with the New Moon going exact late Wednesday afternoon, there is still a chance that the SPX could take out the high at 4028.84 going into Wednesday or Friday on this holiday week.  The SPY did give us a Positive Volume Reversal Day on Friday and the decline today was on much less volume than Friday. Also, our TRIN-5 indicator close > 6.00 which is very oversold and argues for higher SPX prices. This market is very treacherous to trade and we need to see an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart before we think about a small short position. The weakness of crude oil and gold into Monday added to our concern of a strong deflationary wave hitting global asset markets soon  Bitcoin has only rallied in 3-waves from its low last week and started breaking down again today. Crude oil tested our $75 target and then gave us a strong rebound to $80. Gold tested $1734 and bounced on Monday - we are bearish on the PM sector.  bearish for the PM sector.  The USD continued its rally which could target 109.

11/21/22 (Commentary for Monday) We have turned cautious on the stock market here despite the bullish seasonal for this week but continue to respect the ability of the SPX to rally above 4028.84 this week. A Positive Volume Reversal Day for the SPY on Friday and a TRIN-5 > 6.00 are positive indicators for the SPX to start this week and the New Moon Wednesday afternoon could hold the SPX and DJIA up into the holiday weekend. Still, the bearish price action in gold and crude oil into Monday and further contagion in the crypto currency sector is a WARNING FLAG to us about a possible DEFLATIONARY WAVE that could hit global stock markets into the Spring of 2023 - the combination of our dominant 20-yr stock cycles and 8-yr gold cycle argue for this.  If the SPX takes out 4028.84 to the upside on Tuesday, this could be short-term bullish for the stock market. After a 3-wave bounce into Friday, Bitcoin appears to be rolling over again - an undercut low below 14925 is possible this week. Crude oil tested our target of $75 early Monday but then bounced quickly to $80 - the New Moon on Wednesday could give us a spike higher. Gold tested $1734 Monday before bouncing - the tape has turned negative against the PM sector. The USD continued to rally and targets 109 in the near term. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX may have peaked on 11/15 at 4028.84 as we got an Option Premium SELL SIGNAL on 11/14. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down.

Stocks – The DJIA took out Friday's high near the open but the Russell 2000, SPX and NDX failed to do so which is bearish. Still the New Moon on Wednesday could hold up the DJIA and SPX into the holiday weekend.

Gold – Gold tested $1734 and bounced on Monday which is bearish for the PM sector.

Silver – Silver gave us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart and a SELL SIGNAL on Monday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil tested our target of $75 and then bounced to $80.

Dollar Index – The USD continues to rally with a target of 109.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/21.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - November 20, 2922

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  Friday ended up a rally for the SPX and left its short-term wave count up in the air. However, the EW count for the Russell 2000(IWM) is 5-waves down and 3-waves up for the hourly chart and we view that as bearish. Our Option Premium Ratio SELL SIGNAL from last week argues that the 11/15 high at SPX 4028.84 might have been the high for the rally and we turned defensive last Thursday. We are cautious here and believe that the Bitcoin contagion may have legs and the ability to further undercut the financial markets like sub-prime mortgages did in the fall of 2008. The weakness of crude oil and gold into the weekend also added to the concern of a strong deflationary wave hitting global asset markets. We understand that holiday seasonals this week are usually bullish but we have a 11/21 turn window that could surprise many traders. A SPX rally above 4020 this week would be short-term bullish (making higher highs past the 34-day step out from 10/13).  Bitcoin has only rallied in 3-waves from its low last week and we are looking for lower prices for the move this week. Gold gave us an EW 5-wave decline into Friday and we view this as bearish for the PM sector.  The USD and the 10-yr US rate have both only given us a 3-wave decline and appear to be reversing higher here.

11/20/22 (Commentary for Sunday) We have turned cautious on the stock market here despite the bullish seasonal for this week. The bearish price action in gold and crude oil into the weekend and further contagion in the crypto currency sector is a WARNING FLAG to us about a possible DEFLATIONARY WAVE that could hit global stock markets into the Spring of 2023 - the combination of our dominant 20-yr stock cycles and 8-yr gold cycle argue for this. Our Option Premium Ratio gave us a SELL SIGNAL on Tuesday and the IWM(Russell 2000) gave us a 5-wave decline from its Tuesday high - this is bearish for the short-term. However, if the SPX takes out 4028.84 to the upside on Monday, this could be short-term bullish. Our alternate EW count that the SPX made its 5th of C high at 4028.84 on 11/15 is now our primary count. The Russell 2000(IWM) gave us 5-waves down from 11/15 with just a 3-wave corrective bounce - this has turned us short-term bearish on the stock market. After a 3-wave bounce into Friday, Bitcoin appears close to rolling over - an undercut low below 14925 is likely by Monday. Crude oil is rolling over and its H&S pattern on the hourly chart is the controlling pattern and predicts a move to $75. Gold spiked to $1791 on Tuesday but then went 5-waves down on the hourly chart into Friday's close which is a sell signal. The USD finished a 3-wave correction to 105.34 on 11/15  and is coiling for a reversal higher. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX may have peaked on 11/15 at 4028.84 as we got an Option Premium SELL SIGNAL on 11/14. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down.

Stocks – An EW 5-waves down on the Russell 2000 from 11/15 and an Option Premium Ratio SELL SIGNAL on 11/14 have turned us bearish on the SPX - how we trade on Monday, a turning point day, will define the short-term trend in the SPX. 

Gold – Gold tested $1791 on 11/15 and then turned down in 5-waves into Friday which is bearish for the PM sector.

Silver – A move under $20.79 on Monday would give us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart and a SELL SIGNAL.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is rolling over bearishly and is targeting $75 from its H&S pattern on the hourly chart.

Dollar Index – The USD completed a 3-wave correction at 105.34 early on 11/15 and is coiling for a rally leg.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/21.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 17, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  To us the tape looked weak today and we saw that the IWM peaked on Tuesday and gave us an EW 5-wave decline. We have an alternate count that the SPX made a 5th wave high at 4028.84 on Tuesday as well. Also, our Option Premium Ratio gave us a multi month low(0.59) on Monday before the rally high of SPX 4028.84 on Tuesday - this is the same pattern that we saw on 8/15 when the Option Premium Ratio gave us a multi-month low (0.50) the day before the SPX made its rally high at 4325 on 8/16 - we view this AS A MAJOR SELL SIGNAL The SPX also made its high in the orb of the 34-day Fibonacci step out on Wednesday. We have turned bearish and have exited our small long position.  The USD and the 10-yr US rate have both only given us a 3-wave decline and appear to be reversing higher here.

11/17/22 (Commentary for Thursday) We have turned bearish on the market and exited our small long position this morning. Our Option Premium Ratio gave us a SELL SIGNAL on Tuesday and the IWM(Russell 2000) gave us a 5-wave decline from its Tuesday high. Our alternate EW count that the SPX made its 5th of C high at 4028.84 on Tuesday is now our primary count. The IWM appears to be rolling over and today was a very negative breadth day for the NYSE. After a 3-wave bounce into Thursday, Bitcoin appears close to rolling over - an undercut low below 14925 is likely by Monday. Crude oil is rolling over and its H&S pattern on the hourly chart is the controlling pattern and predicts a move to $75. Gold spiked to $1791 on Tuesday but is being pressured lower by a rising USD. The USD finished a 3-wave correction to 105.34 on Tuesday  and is coiling for a reversal higher. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX may have peaked on Tuesday at 4028 as we got an Option Premium SELL SIGNAL on Monday. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down.

Stocks – More fallout from the crypto meltdown pressured the SPX this morning - we got a Major SELL SIGNAL on the SPX on Monday and are getting defensive. 

Gold – Gold tested $1791 on Tuesday before hard as the USD turned up.

Silver – Silver tested $22.38 but was pressured down to $20.77 on Thursday by a stronger USD.

Crude Oil – Crude oil is rolling over bearishly and is targeting $75 from its H&S pattern on the hourly chart.

Dollar Index – The USD completed a 3-wave correction at 105.34 early on 11/15 and is coiling for a rally leg.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/16-11/17 - the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 10/13 low.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - November 16, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX continued a 3-wave correction into Wednesday as more bad news in the crypto world was released and the earnings update from Target was poorly received. Just a 3-wave SPX correction into 11/16-11/17, the 34-day Fibonacci step out, would be a bullish setup for higher prices and perhaps a test of the 200-dma at SPX 4050-4080. We did get a powerful turn in the 11/8-11/10 turn window, but we still believe that this is just a bear market rally that has lower lows to make in the intermediate term.  

11/16/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) The retails sales report came in at the hottest number in eight months but a poor earnings update from Target again revealed increasing pressure on the US consumer. Just a 3-wave pullback into the 34-day step out on 11/16-11/17 would be a bullish setup for a test of the SPX 200-dma around 4050-4080.  Our EW interpretation of the rally from 10/13 is that we started a 3rd wave of C higher on Thursday of a large a-b-c bear market correction and we may have started a 4th of C corrective wave on Tuesday. After a 3-wave bounce into Wednesday, Bitcoin appears ready to rollover - an undercut low below 14925 is likely by Friday. The contagion in the crypto world could be more far-reaching than thought.  Crude oil may be succumbing bearishly to a H&S pattern on the hourly chart makes us cautious here - how the pattern resolves into Friday is key.  Gold spiked to $1791 on Tuesday but then corrected sideways into Wednesday which is bullish. The USD may have finished a 3-wave correction to 105.34 today and we could be close to a reversal higher. 

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX rally from 11/10 does not change our bias that the market rally from 10/13 is just a "bear market" rally. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 - down to SPX 2400 - as the 20-yr stock cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows into a recession. The 13-month Fibonacci step out from the 1/4/22 SPX high and the 55-wk Fibonacci step out have us looking to early February for an important low. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – We still expect gold stocks to test their COVID lows by Fed/March 2023 as the 8-yr gold cycle and the 20-yr stock market cycle converge on the downside. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates could still pressure the PM sector down.

Stocks – Retail sales came in at the strongest number in eight months but bad earnings from Target hit the retail sector of the market and the SPX continued to trace out a 3-wave correction - our bias is that the SPX is working a 4th wave correction into the 11/16-11/17 turn window that could reverse higher in a 5th wave to test SPX 200-dma near 4050-4080. 

Gold – Gold tested $1791 on Tuesday before correcting sideways into Wednesday which looks bullish.

Silver – Silver tested $22.38 early Tuesday before pulling in 3-waves into Wednesday.

Crude Oil – Crude oil just bounced correctively on news of Russian missiles hitting Poland and the short-term trend looks bearish.

Dollar Index – The USD may have completed its 3-wave correction at 105.34 early Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 11/16-11/17 - the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 10/13 low.