All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 15. 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX tested the 9/6 low before closing above the key SPX 3900 support level as we enter into the quad-witching expiration. The trading action in the SPX since Wednesday looks like a bear flag. Bitcoin is trading below 20000 overnight which is a negative tell for the SPX early Friday. We are looking for more volatility into the weekend on this quad-witching week because some of our stock cycles are still pointing down and a close below SPX 3900 would be significant. Crude oil tested $84.50 and may have finished a “Running B-Wave” correction which is bullish. As the 30-yr fixed rate mortgage holds near 14-yr highs at 6.30%, the USD is holding at 109.7 overnight.

9/15/22 (Commentary for Thursday) After the huge move down after the Tuesday CPI inflation report, the SPX has traced out a bear flag since early Wednesday. The SPX 3900 level is being pressured intra-day – if the 3900 level is lost on the close Friday, we could see a big move down on Monday. The SPX and NDX both gave us Negative Volume Reversal days on Thursday which is bearish. We are looking for more downside volatility into quad-witching Friday. A close below SPX 3900 would be bearish.  Bitcoin is trading below 20000 overnight which is a bearish tell for the SPX early Friday. Crude oil pulled back to test $84.50 but may have finished a bullish “Running B-Wave correction” today. After the 10-yr US rate continued to hold at highs for the year, gold got beat down to close at $1668 – under key support at $1675 which is bearish. The USD remains in correction mode but is still holding up to 109.7 overnight. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Closing above SPX 3900 is key here going into quad-witching Friday or another leg down could emerge. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The 10-yr US rate remains near highs for the year and gold got pressured to close below $1675 which is bearish. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year as global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates can still pressure the PM sector down.

• Stocks – Today’s retail sales report came in stronger than expected but was actually negative when looking at the report ex-autos. We are expecting more volatility into Friday’s quad-witching and a Friday close below SPX 3900 would be bearish.
• Gold – After Monday’s high at $1747, gold declined in 5-waves down on the hourly and continued to sub-divide down bearishly below key support at $1675 – this looks weak.
• Silver – Silver fell below $19 before rebounding overnight.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil may have finished a “Running B-Wave correction” at $84.50 which is bullish.
• Dollar Index – The USD is in correction mode but holding at 109.7 overnight.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 9/12-9/13.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 14, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The month/month PPI inflation report came in as expected at --0.1% and the year/year PPI report came in softer at 8.7% compared to 9.8% in August but the reports were impacted by the decline of gasoline prices. Evidence of broad-based wholesale price pressures are still visible in the economy. The SPX and NDX made slight gains but the bounces today in the averages looked corrective. We are looking for more volatility into the weekend on this quad-witching week because some of our stock cycles are still pointing down. Bitcoin is holding above 20000 overnight Wednesday but looks weak to us. Crude oil popped above $90 on Wednesday but gold fell to test $1700 overnight. As the 30-yr fixed rate mortgage hit 14-yr highs at 6.30%, the USD held above 109.

9/14/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) The PPI came is as expected but traders saw that wholesale price pressures are broad-based in the economy and gasoline prices may start to reverse higher. The SPX and NDX were positive for the day but their rallies looked corrective. We are looking for more downside into quad-witching Friday. A close below SPX 3906 would be bearish.  Commodities rebounded on Wednesday as traders saw broad-based inflation in the PPI report. Crude oil popped above $90 and natural gas spiked above $9.0 – even silver looked resilient. After the 10-yr US rate spiked to 3.48% early, gold pulled back below $1700 overnight. The USD is in correction mode but still holding up to 109.7 overnight. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Closing above SPX 3906 is key here going into quad-witching Friday. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Despite broad-based wholesale inflation pressures, gold pulled back below $1700 overnight as nominal rates continue higher. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year as global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates can still pressure the PM sector down.

• Stocks – Today’s PPI report showed broad-based inflationary pressures in the US economy that can’t be masked much longer by declining gasoline pressures. We are expecting more volatility into Friday’s quad-witching and a close below SPX 3906 would be bearish.
• Gold – After Monday’s high at $1747, gold has declined in 5-waves down on the hourly and broken $1700 overnight Wednesday – this is bearish.
• Silver – Silver looks stronger than gold and is trying to hold above $19.50.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil popped above $90 and gave the oil sector a bid.
• Dollar Index – The USD is in correction mode but holding at 109.7 overnight.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 9/12-9/13.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 13, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The CPI report came in hotter than expected early Tuesday and the SPX had its biggest down day since 2020. Our TRIN-5 SELL SIGNAL and Option Premium SELL SIGNAL came home to roost in a big way. The “inflation has peaked” crowd really took it on the chin today. The PPI inflation report comes in early Wednesday and could give us another volatile day in this quad-witching week. The Option Premium Ratio dropped dramatically from 1.51 to .89 which showed that traders bought call options looking for a bounce higher on Wednesday after today’s extreme sell off. The USD gave us a strong corrective bounce higher that tested 110.

9/13/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX rallied into the Full Moon Timing Window and into Tuesday’s early CPI report. Sell signals from our TRIN-5 indicator and Option Premium Ratio indicator came in and gave us one of the biggest down days since the 2020 Covid selloff.  Hotter than expected CPI numbers sent the SPX back to test support at 3906. The PPI inflation report early Wednesday has the ability to rally the SPX hard if the numbers are cooler than expected – that is our expectation. Crude oil pulled back to test $85 today before reversing higher to test its Person’s Pivot at $87.44 overnight Tuesday. After the 10-yr US rate spiked to 3.46%, gold was pressured down to test $1706. The USD gave us a strong rebound rally that tested 110. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – AAPL gave up a huge $7+ today as over-confidant traders took their losses on the hotter-than-expected CPI report. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tagged $1747 on Monday but then came back down on Tuesday to tag $1706. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year as global physical inventories continue to decline but higher nominal US rates can still pressure the PM sector down.

• Stocks – Today’s hot CPI report shocked the market into one of its biggest losing days since the 2020 Covid sell off and the SPX fell to test support at 3900.  A cooler than expected PPI report early Wednesday could give the SPX a huge relief rally in this volatile quad-witching week.
• Gold – Gold finished an EW a-b-c correction late Monday and reversed down to test $1700 again after the hot CPI report.  
• Silver – Silver pulled back to test $19.23 in what appears to be a 3-wave correction.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil pulled back to test $85 before bouncing overnight to test $87.44.
• Dollar Index – The USD gave us a furious corrective bounce to test 110.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 9/12-9/13.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 12, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX rallied hard today into the 9/9-9/12 Full Moon Timing Window and the key CPI report early Tuesday. Our TRIN-5 indicator printed a second SELL SIGNAL at the very overbought level of 3.0 on Monday’s close which is a SELL SIGNAL. We are expecting big volatility in this week’s quad-witching and it could start Tuesday if the inflation numbers come in hotter than the “inflation has peaked” crowd expects. AAPL closing above 155 on Friday’s close was a bullish tell for the market on Monday but our Option Premium Ratio indicator has given us back-to-back values of 1.51 which is a SELL SIGNAL. Bitcoin holding above 22000 overnight Sunday was a bullish tell for the SPX on Monday. Crude oil rallied in 5-waves into Monday’s Full Moon Timing Window and that gave the oil stocks a boost today. The USD gave us an EW 5-waves down below 108.33 and that is a SELL SIGNAL that could help commodities move higher.

9/12/22 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX rallied into the Full Moon Timing Window and into Tuesday’s early CPI report. Sell signals from our TRIN-5 indicator and Option Premium Ratio indicator have us looking for some downside volatility after the CPI inflation report as we expect some hotter than expected numbers. Our TRIN-5 indicator gave us a second consecutive SELL SIGNAL as it hit the very overbought value of 3.0. Bitcoin rallied above 22000 Sunday night which was a bullish tell for the SPX On Monday. Crude oil gave us 5-waves up into the Full Moon Timing Window on Monday – just a 3-wave pullback is bullish for a run above $88. The USD gave us 5-waves down below 108.33 which is a SELL SIGNAL and that should help boost gold, silver and other commodities. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – AAPL’s huge rally on Monday helped give the SPX a big day but traders are over-confidant going into tomorrow’s CPI inflation report. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tagged $1747 on Monday before reversing down. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year as global physical inventories continue to decline.

• Stocks – AAPL’s blowout day kept the SPX elevated but a SELL SIGNAL from the Option Premium Ratio and a second SELL SIGNAL from the TRIN-5 indicator today have us looking for downside after tomorrow’s CPI report.
• Gold – Gold may have finished an EW a-b-c correction today and is rolling over.  
• Silver – Silver tested $20 before correcting and got a big boost from the declining USD.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil spiked to test $88 today before correcting – a break above $88 would be bullish.
• Dollar Index – The USD broke below 108.33 and gave us 5-waves down and a SELL SIGNAL that should benefit commodities.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 9/12-9/13.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - September 11, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX finished an EW 5-waves higher from 3886 on 9/6 and should be ready for a pullback on Monday. Our TRIN-5 indicator printed 3.72 on Friday’s close which is a SELL SIGNAL. Just a 3-wave pullback in the SPX into the 9/12 CPI report could set up a reversal higher. In fact, AAPL closed at 157.5 on Friday (above 155) which takes this “market tell” out of the short-term bearish camp. Bitcoin is soaring to over 22000 overnight Sunday which is a bullish tell for the SPX early Monday. Crude oil did pop to $87.19 on Friday’s Full Moon Timing Window. Gold may have finished an EW a-b-c correction and is rolling over Sunday night. A move below 108.33 on the USD will give us 5-waves down on the hourly chart and a SELL SIGNAL.

9/11/22 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX is an EW 5-waves up from 3886.75 on 9/6 and argues for a pullback on Monday into Tuesday’s CPI report. Our TRIN-5 indicator printed 3.72 on Friday’s close which is a SELL SIGNAL. Our technical work did not confirm an important low last week so another move down is possible. However, Bitcoin is rallying above 22000 Sunday night which is a bullish tell for the SPX early Monday. Crude oil spiked to $87.19 on Friday’s Full Moon Timing Window. Fears of a global recession are taking center stage and have taken crude oil to recent lows of $81.5. If the USD trades below 108.33, that will give us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart and a SELL SIGNAL. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – AAPL closed above its bear market tell of 155 on Friday and tagged 157.5. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold may have finished just an a-b-c bounce on Friday and may have turned lower. However, Central bankers are loading up on gold this year as global physical inventories continue to decline.

• Stocks – The SPX finished an EW 5-waves higher from 3886 on 9/6 and so we are looking for a correction early Monday. We are in cash.
• Gold – Gold also appeared to have finished a flat correction Friday and is reversing lower.  
• Silver – Silver is testing $19 overnight Sunday and remains stronger than gold.
• Bonds – Bonds are tracing out a coil pattern into Sunday night which may resolve on Tuesday’s CPI report.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil spiked to test $87 on Friday’s Full Moon but the trend still looks down.
• Dollar Index – A break below 108.33 would give us 5-waves down and a SELL SIGNAL.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 9/12-9/13.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 8, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX may only be tracing out a “flat correction” here so the ideas of an important low yesterday has not been confirmed. In fact, AAPL plunged below its bearish tell of 155 and that has put us on the defensive. Bitcoin only gave us a weak bounce and remains trapped below its key resistance at 20000. Crude oil just gave us a corrective-looking bounce today and then pulled back to test its Person’s Pivot at $82.79 overnight. The USD is only giving us a 3-wave corrective pullback so far.

9/08/22 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX may be just tracing out a “flat correction” here and that has short-term bearish implications. A low of importance was not confirmed by our technicals. Also, Bitcoin just gave us a corrective bounce and remains below key resistance at 20000 which is a bearish tell for the SPX. Crude oil and natural gas continue to trade weakly – has the worst-case scenario already been priced into natural gas and crude oil in the short term? Fears of a global recession are taking center stage. The USD only gave us a 3-wave pullback so far so higher highs are still a possibility. The British Pound is trading weakly against the USD – almost at 1985 lows. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – AAPL spiked below its bearish tell of 155 today and that puts a bearish spin on the whole market here in the short term. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold only traced out a flat correction itself into today and looks lower. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year as global physical inventories continue to decline.

• Stocks – The SPX may be tracing out a flat correction into today and AAPL’s spike below 155 today looks bearish. We are in cash.
• Gold – Gold also appeared to have finished a flat correction today and looks lower.  
• Silver – Silver remains above $18 and looks stronger than gold.
• Bonds – Bonds also look bearish here as higher rates look lightly.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil only gave us a weak bounce today which looks bearish.
• Dollar Index – The USD only gave us a 3-wave pullback which argues for a test of the recent highs.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 9/6.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 7, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: After holding above our bearish markets tells (SPX 3903 and AAPL 155) on a daily close on Tuesday, the SPX and NDX generated big market rallies on Wednesday. The SPX may have made a B-Wave low and we may get a C-Wave higher on an EW a-b-c bounce from the 6/17 low. Bitcoin is rallying overnight to test 19375 – a move above 20000 would be a bullish test for the SPX. Crude oil plunged below $82 even after OPEC called for production cuts a few days ago – China is leading the global economy into recession. The USD hit 110.79 early, multi-year highs, but then came down hard giving the PM sector a bounce.

9/07/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) After yesterday’s intra-day reversal that closed our bearish market tells above water, both the SPX and NDX gave us solid market rallies. We may have seen the end of the B-Wave pullback of a 3-wave upside correction from 6/17 and we may have started a C-Wave higher that could last into mid-September. Bitcoin rallied to 19375 overnight – a move above 20000 would be a bullish tell for the SPX. Crude oil and natural gas continued to fall hard – has the worst-case scenario already been priced into natural gas and crude oil in the short term? Crude oil got down to $81.50 today as fears of a global recession are taking center stage. The USD gave us early highs at 110.78 before falling hard and sparking the PM sector. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The stock market took out our bearish tells today on an intra-day basis Tuesday (SPX 3903 and AAPL 155) but managed to close above them which generated a strong rally on Wednesday. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The 10-yr US rate eased off today and this helped spark a rally in the PM sector. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year as global physical inventories continue to decline.

• Stocks – After some intra-day violations in our bearish tells yesterday (SPX 3903 and AAPL 155), they did manage to close above water and this led to strong rallies in both the SPX and NDX today.
• Gold – The 10-yr US rate pulled back today and the PM sector rebounded hard.  
• Silver – Silver closed handily above $18 today as the USD corrected.
• Bonds – Bonds reversed higher on Wednesday and that gave us a pullback in rates after the Fed hinted at a 75-basis point rate hike.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil touched $81.5 on global recession fears.
• Dollar Index – The USD touched highs for the year at 110.78 before reversing hard.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 9/6.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 6, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: After a gap-up open, the stock came down below our bearish triggers (SPX 3903 and AAPL 115) and we made a lower low at 3886.75 before rebounding. We were surprised, however, that the European markets held up after Russia formally cut off natural gas deliveries. The drop in natural gas prices may reflect that the energy markets may have already priced in worse-case scenarios for the time being. With our bearish stock market triggers hit we decided to just stand aside as the NDX has now fallen in six out of seven market days. Many analysts are bearish here and expected a resumption on the downturn in the SPX to continue on Tuesday.  We were not so sure ourselves, but we stood aside after AAPL broke through 155. The SPX may be close to a B-Wave low but hitting our bearish triggers is keeping us cautious here. Bitcoin fell to 18840 which is another bearish tell for the SPX. Crude oil pulled back to the $87 area even as Russia shut off the natural gas spigot to Europe. As the USD tested multi-year highs above 110, gold was pressured down to $1713.

9/06/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX gave us another gap-up open on Tuesday that got retraced for a loss into the close. Both of our bearish triggers (the SPX below 3903 and AAPL below 155) kicked in and kept us on the sidelines. This could still be just the B-Wave pullback of a 3-wave upside correction from 6/17, but we prefer to watch from the sidelines. Bitcoin’s move down to 18475 overnight Tuesday is a bearish tell for the SPX early Wednesday. Russia announced a cutoff of natural gas to Europe, but the European markets held up and the price of natural gas fell – has the worst case scenario already been priced into natural gas in the short term? Crude oil is making lower lows to $85.61 overnight as fears of a global recession are taking center stage. The 10-yr US rate made multi-year highs at 3.35% and this gave the USD a bid at highs for the year at 110.61 which pressured gold down to $1706 overnight. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The stock market took out our bearish tells today on an intra-day basis Tuesday (SPX 3903 and AAPL 155) - this has put us cautiously on the sidelines in the short-term. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – The 10-yr US rate continues to make multi-year highs and that continues to strengthen the USD and pressure the PM sector. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year as global physical inventories continue to decline.

• Stocks – The SPX gap-up open on Tuesday was totally retraced – our bearish tells in the SPX and AAPL were violated intra-day but closed above at the end of the session. Still, we moved to the sidelines and prefer to stay in cash.
• Gold – The 10-yr US rate is making multi-year highs at 3.25% which is pressuring the PM sector.  
• Silver – Silver pulled back to $17.75 overnight in the face of the strong USD.
• Bonds – Bonds spiked down to 132’02 overnight Tuesday and that is keep the trend higher in rates.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is making lower lows at $85.17 overnight as natural gas breaks down.
• Dollar Index – The USD touched 110.60 which is a multi-year high.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 9/6.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - September 4, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: On a weaker than expected NFP jobs report the SPX gapped up and tested 4017 early Friday before correcting into the close as traders left for the long holiday weekend. Many analysts are bearish here and expect a resumption on the downturn in the SPX to continue on Tuesday.  We are not sure ourselves, but if AAPL trades below 155 on Tuesday and the SPX breaks below 3903, we will be joining the bearish camp. Bitcoin appears to be tracing out a bear flag pattern and is stuck below 20000 which is a bearish tell for the SPX. Crude oil appears to be giving us a bearish a-b-c bounce Sunday night which is bearish. Gold bounced after the NFP jobs report and tested $1730 but the USD is trading at highs for the year over 110 and that should pressure the PM sector down.

9/04/22 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX gave us a gap-up open on Friday that got retraced for a loss into the close. The momentum is pointing down for the SPX but we want to see AAPL trade below 155 on Tuesday and the SPX trade below 3903 before we join the bearish camp. This could still be just the B-Wave pullback of a 3-wave upside correction from 6/17 but how the SPX trades on Tuesday will set the tone. Bitcoin is giving the SPX a negative tell by tracing out a bear flag pattern on Sunday night and holding below resistance at 20000. The summer rally in stocks appears to have peaked out at SPX 4325 on a test of its 200-dma and the downtrend has resumed. Crude oil is giving us just a 3-wave corrective bounce from Friday which is bearish - fears of a global recession are taking center stage. Gold spiked to $1730 after Friday’s NFP jobs report but the USD trading over 110 Sunday night is providing resistance. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made an EW 5-wave decline from 8/16 at 4326 into 3903 early Thursday – how the SPX reacts to a weaker NFP jobs report on Tuesday will be key – a break of 3903 will be bearish. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold made new lows for the week at $1699 Thursday morning but spiked to $1730 after the NFP jobs report on Friday. Central bankers are loading up on gold this year as global physical inventories continue to decline.

• Stocks – The SPX gap-up open on Friday was totally retraced. How the SPX trades on Tuesday will set the tone – a break under 3903 will be bearish. AAPL trading under 155 will also be a bearish tell.
• Gold – Gold spiked to test $1730 after Friday’s NFP jobs report, but the USD trading over 110 is providing resistance Sunday night.  
• Silver – Silver bounced to test $18.17 on Friday but a strong USD overnight Sunday is providing resistance.
• Bonds – Bonds spiked down to 133’03 early Friday before bouncing after the NFP jobs report.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil’s corrective 3-wave bounce on Friday looks bearish.
• Dollar Index – The USD trading over 110 Sunday night is negative for the SPX and PM sector.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 9/6.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - September 1, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX tested 3900 at 11:00 AM EDT and then reversed higher testing 3970 late in the session and avoiding five declining days in a row. The big number of the week is the NFP jobs report early Friday and a weaker than expected number(+318,000) will be welcomed by the market. Today we were focused on the trading in AAPL which briefly broke 155 before reversing to 158 into the close. Bitcoin tested 19310 during the day before reversing higher to test overhead resistance at 20000 overnight – this is not bullish behavior. A weaker than expected ADP jobs report did not placate the market on Wednesday but maybe a weaker than expected NFP jobs report on Friday will. Crude oil plunged to test $86 before bouncing back to $88 overnight. Gold tested $1699 today before a bounce higher overnight as the USD broke higher to test 110 – highs for the year.

9/01/22 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX tested lower lows at 3900 before reversing higher to test 3970 into the close. The bulls pushed the SPX higher in the last 15 minutes to avoid a fifth straight down day. This could still just be the B-Wave pullback of a 3-wave upside correction from 6/17 but how the SPX reacts to the NFP jobs report early Friday will set the tone. AAPL did briefly fake us out by briefly falling below 155 but it reversed higher impulsively to close near 158. Bitcoin tested lows for the week at 19310 but is still unable to bounce above resistance at 20000.  The summer rally in stocks appears to have peaked out at SPX 4325 on a test of its 200-dma and the downtrend has resumed. Crude oil tested $86 today but bounced back to $88 overnight - fears of a global recession are taking center stage. Gold spiked lower to test $1699 before bouncing back above $1700 overnight. The USD broke higher to test 110 which is the high for the year and this pressured the PM sector. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made an EW 5-wave decline from 8/16 at 4326 into 3903 early Thursday – how the SPX reacts to a potentially weaker NFP jobs report on Friday will be key. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold made new lows for the week at $1699 Thursday morning, but central bankers are loading up on gold this year as global physical inventories continue to decline.

• Stocks – The SPX may have finished an EW 5-wave decline into 3903 this morning. How the SPX trades after the NFP jobs report will set the tone.
• Gold – Gold is tested $1699 Thursday morning before bouncing – the strong USD is keeping a lid on gold.
• Silver – Silver tested $17.40 and made another undercut low.
• Bonds – Bonds spiked down to 133’04 early Thursday before bouncing. Rates continue to grind higher, especially the US 2-yr note.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $86 on fears of a global recession.
• Dollar Index – The USD tested 110  and this continues to pressure the PM sector.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 9/2 which is the NFP jobs report.