All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 31, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX has been down four days in a row and is still tracing out bearish patterns. Late in today’s session AAPL filled a gap from late July 29 and gives us a special tell for tomorrow’s trading. If 155 gets taken out for AAPL early Thursday, the SPX could have a very bad day. Bitcoin is tracing out a bearish looking continuation pattern and is having trouble getting above 20000 – this is a bearish tell for the SPX. A weaker than expected ADP jobs report did not placate the market today but maybe a weaker than expected NFP jobs report on Friday will. Crude oil fell below $90 today on global recession fears. Gold was pressured down to $1713 as the USD continues to trace out a “bull flag pattern” near109.

8/31/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX gave us four down days in a row and its volume appears to be picking up – however, this could still just be the B-Wave pullback of a 3-wave upside correction from 6/17. At this point we will be watching AAPL closely early Thursday and a break below 155 could see the SPX selling accelerate. Bitcoin is tracing out a bearish continuation pattern and remains stuck below 20000 which is another bearish sign for the SPX on Thursday. The summer rally in stocks appears to have peaked out at SPX 4325 on a test of its 200-dma and the downtrend has resumed. Crude oil fell below $90 today on fears of a global recession. Gold pulled back to test $1713 afterhours today as the USD continues to hover near 109. Gold has a seasonal tendency to decline into Friday’s NFP jobs report. The USD may be tracing out another bull flag pattern after it made highs for the year at 109.48. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made an EW 5-wave decline from 8/16 at 4326 into 3954 on Wednesday – how the SPX reacts to a potentially weaker NFP jobs report on Friday will be key. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold made new lows for the week at $1713 overnight Wednesday, but central bankers are loading up on gold this year as global physical inventories continue to decline.

• Stocks – The SPX summer rally appears to have peaked out on 8/16 at 4326. After a touch of its 200-dma, the SPX may have renewed its downtrend. We are watching AAPL closely early Thursday – an early break below $155 could make a long day for the SPX.
• Gold – Gold is testing $1713 overnight but a strong USD is keeping a lid on gold here.
• Silver – Silver is diving to $17.45 overnight.
• Bonds – Bonds are spiking down to 134’19 overnight Wednesday. Rates continue to grind higher.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil fell below $90 on Wednesday on fears of a global recession.
• Dollar Index – The USD hovers near yearly highs around $109.48 and this continues to pressure the PM sector.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 9/2 which is the NFP jobs report.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 30, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The 5-min chart of the SPX continues to decline in 5-waves and rally in 3-waves which is bearish. We continue to look for lower lows in the SPX by Friday. Bitcoin traded below 20000 which is another bearish tell for the SPX. Early economic reports Wednesday include the ADP jobs report and the Chicago PMI. Crude oil fell a fast $7 Tuesday and that brought the XLE down hard. Gold made lows for the week at $1730.8 Tuesday as the USD tested 109.

8/30/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX tagged $3965 today but made another sideways continuation pattern that has us looking at lower prices going into Friday’s NFP jobs report. Bitcoin traded below 20000 which is another bearish sign for the SPX on Wednesday. So far, the reversal signature from Venus going into Opposition with Saturn Sunday night, has only been a corrective bounce which is bearish for lower SPX lows. The summer rally in stocks appears to have peaked out at SPX 4325 on a test of its 200-dma and the downtrend has resumed. Crude oil fell a whopping $7 on fears that Russian excess production to pay for its Ukrainian war is creating a global glut. Gold pulled back to undercut its $1731 low and tested $1730.8 to make lows for the week so far. Gold has a seasonal tendency to decline into Friday’s NFP jobs report. The USD may be tracing out another bull flag pattern after it made highs for the year at 109.48. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made an EW 5-wave decline from 8/16 at 4326 into 3965 on Tuesday – lower lows this week are likely. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold made new lows for the week at $1730.8 but central bankers are loading up on gold this year and global physical inventories continue to decline.

• Stocks – The SPX summer rally appears to have peaked out on 8/16 at 4326. After a touch of its 200-dma, the SPX may have renewed its downtrend. The SPX may have finished an EW 5-waves down at 3965 and we could get a bounce early Wednesday but lower lows are likely by week’s end.
• Gold – Gold made lows for the week at $1730.8 this morning as the USD continues to hover around multi-year highs.
• Silver – Silver made multi-week lows at $18.225.
• Bonds – Bonds spiked down to 135’17 early Tuesday before bouncing. Rates continue to grind higher.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil dropped $7 Tuesday on fears of a Russian oil glut.
• Dollar Index – The USD hovers near yearly highs around $109.48 and this continues to pressure the PM sector.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 9/2 which is the NFP jobs report.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 29, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX took out Friday’s low and touched 4017 but the reversal looked corrective. It appears likely that the SPX will make lower lows by Tuesday/Wednesday.  Crude oil spiked to multi-week highs at $97.37 and this drove the oil stocks sharply higher. Gold took out multi-week lows and tested $1731 before bouncing. The USD made highs for the year at 109.48 overnight Sunday.

8/29/22 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX made lower lows than Friday but only bounced correctively which suggests lower prices by Tuesday/Wednesday. So far, the reversal signature from Venus going into Opposition with Saturn Sunday night, has only been a corrective bounce which is bearish. The summer rally in stocks appears to have peaked out at SPX 4325 on a test of its 200-dma and the downtrend may have resumed.  On the last day of the New Moon Timing Window, crude oil made a multi-week high at $97.37 and the oil stocks had a big day. After testing $1778 on Thursday, gold pulled back to undercut its $1740 low and tagged $1731 before bouncing. The USD made highs for the year at 109.48. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made an EW 5-wave decline from 8/16 at 4326 into Monday at 4017. A 3-wave corrective bounce appears to have emerged today which is the 13-day Fibonacci step out from 8/16 – lower lows this week are likely. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold touched $1778 early Thursday before rolling over to tag $1731 early Monday as the USD made highs for the year.

• Stocks – The SPX summer rally appears to have peaked out on 8/16 at 4326. After a touch of its 200-dma, the SPX may have renewed its downtrend.
• Gold – Gold tested $1778 early Thursday and then rolled over in 3-waves to test $1731 early Monday before bouncing.
• Silver – Silver gave us an undercut low and tested $18.40 this morning before bouncing.
• Bonds – Bonds made multi-week lows at 135’23 early Monday before bouncing. Rates may be resuming their uptrend.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil spiked to $97.37 on Monday and energy stocks had a big day.
• Dollar Index – The USD made highs for the year at $109.48 and this pressured the PM sector.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 8/29 which is the tail end of the New Moon Timing Window and the 13-day Fibonacci step out from 8/16.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - August 28, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: We have been harping for weeks that traders underestimate the resolve of the Fed to raise rates into a recession and serious job loss, but Friday Chairman reiterated his resolve to raise rates again and the market listened. However, it terms of our change on Thursday night to short-term bullish before Chairman Powell’s speech - WE WERE JUST FLAT OUT WRONG based on the SPX’s reaction to Bullard’s hawkish rate comments on Thursday. The SPX price action last week was a Running B=Wave correction (4^th wave) and we got a strong 5^th wave down move on Friday. We should now get a rebound relay early next week – the $TRIN closed > 2.0 on Friday and that argues for a rally on Monday. Our short-term view is that we should see at least a 3-wave corrective bounce start on Monday.  Crude oil tested $96 in the 8/25-8/26 New Moon Timing Window but fell to test $91 after Powell’s deflationary rhetoric. Gold sold off after Powell’s speech but held above its recent low ($1740) unlike the SPX. The USD broke down to lows for the week at 107.6 but rebounded to 108.8 on Friday’s close.

8/28/22 (Commentary for Sunday) Powell’s short but resolute speech about raising rates into economic pain pummeled the SPX on Friday. The big jump in the Option Premium Ratio on Thursday’s close from 0.98 to 1.51 showed that the bears had loaded up on puts going into Powell’s speech. However, with Venus going into Opposition with Saturn Sunday night, we are expecting some kind of reversal higher by early Monday. However, if we only get a 3-wave SPX rally on Monday, that will be potentially very bearish. We now have a potential 5-wave correction from SPX 4325 on 8/16 into Monday which is the 13-day Fibonacci step out – we are expecting some kind of rally to emerge by early Monday.  After testing $96 in the 8/25-8/26 New Moon Timing Window, crude oil pulled back on Friday to test $91 after Powell’s deflationary-sounding speech. After testing $1778 on Thursday, gold pulled back in 3-waves on Friday but held above its $1740 low. The USD initially broke down to 107.6 after Powell’s speech but then rebounded to test its R1 resistance pivot at 108.84 by Friday’s close. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made an EW 5-wave decline from 8/16 at 4326 into Friday’s close. We are expecting at least a 3-wave corrective bounce to emerge by Monday which is the 13-day Fibonacci step out from 8/16. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold touched $1778 early Thursday and then rolled over in a 3-wave correction to test $1748 post-Fed on Friday. It was bullish that gold was able to hold above its recent low at $1740.

• Stocks – The SPX got pummeled Friday after Powell’s firm and resolute speech about raising rates to quench inflation. We are now looking for a rebound rally to start early Monday.
• Gold – Gold tested $1778 early Thursday and then rolled over in 3-waves to test $1748 post-Fed. Holding about the $1740 low was a positive on Friday.
• Silver – Silver’s rally from 8/22 looks corrective to us and we are looking for an undercut low below $18.60 by early Monday.
• Bonds – Bonds made an early low on Thursday at 136’00 but then gave us a 3-wave rally into Friday’s close with bearish divergence. How we trade on Monday will be enlightening.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil peaked near $96 in the New Moon Timing Window and then pulled back to test $91 post-Fed.
• Dollar Index – The USD made lows for the week at 107.6 after Powell’s speech but then rebounded to close Friday near 108.8.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 8/29 which is the tail end of the New Moon Timing Window and the 13-day Fibonacci step out from 8/16.

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The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 25, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Today was an important day in our work and the price patterns in the SPX altered our short-term outlook. The SPX price action from Tuesday-Thursday is not a 4^th wave correction in our opinion – we now favor a bullish short-term view going into Powell’s speech on Friday. The SPX ONLY DECLINED in an EW a-b-c corrective pattern from last week’s high at 4326 into Tuesday’s turn window and we have then rallied in an EW 5-waves from Wednesday morning into Thursday’s close in the SPX, NDX and IWM – we view this as bullish price action. The SPX was able to overcome a “hotter than expected” inflation number of 8.9% from the revised Q2 GDP and also the bearish roadmap laid out by St. Louis Fed governor Bullard that sees the Fed Funds rate at 3.75-4.0% by year end. What is Powell going to say tomorrow that is more hawkish than that? Our short-term view is that if we get just a 3-wave pullback in the SPX early Friday that we could then rally back up to test 4326 into early next week. The SPX spoke today and we listened – we would not be trying to short the SPX early Friday.  Crude oil pulled back to $92.36 this morning but could still spike and test $96 on early Friday’s New Moon. Gold rallied to $1778 this morning and started pulling back after Bullard’s hawkish roadmap into yearend for Fed rate policy. The USD appears to be coiling in a “bull flag” between 108 and 109 as we approach Powell’s speech early Friday.

8/25/22 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX price action today in the face of a revised Q2 PCI inflation number(8.9%) and the hawkish Fed policy roadmap from Bullard has charged our view to short-term bullish. We would not try to short the SPX early Friday. We only have a 3-wave correction from SPX 4325 into our Tuesday turn window and then we rallied in 5-waves higher from early Wednesday to the close of Thursday in the SPX, NDX and IWM – this is bullish behavior in face of two negative news items this morning. Crude oil pulled back to $92.36 this morning but could still spike higher to test $96 on early Friday’s exact New Moon. After test $1778, gold rolled over on the hot 8.9% PCI inflation number and the hawkish Fed roadmap laid out by Bullard. The USD appears to be tracing out a “bull flag” as we approach Powell’s speech on Friday. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX only declined in an EW a-b-c from last week’s print of 4325 into Tuesday’s turn window – the 5-waves higher from early Wednesday has turned us short-term bullish for a rally back up to test 4325 early next week. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested $1778 early Thursday and rolled over on a hotter PCI inflation number (8.9%) and Bullard’s hawkish roadmap for Fed policy into year end.

• Stocks – The SPX shook off two negative new items early this morning and rallied in 5-waves into the close to test 4200 – this is short-term bullish behavior. We are now looking for a rally that retests SPX 4325 into early next week.
• Gold – Gold tested $1778 into the 8/25-8/26 New Moon Timing Window this morning and then rolled over on Bullard’s hawkish Fed funds roadmap into yearend.
• Silver – Silver’s rally from early Monday looks corrective to us and we are looking for an undercut low below $18.60.
• Bonds – Bonds made an early low for the week at 136’00 but then rallied into the close after Bullard’s hawkish roadmap – this is short-term bullish.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil pulled back early to $92.36 but is still poised to spike higher on Friday’s exact New Moon.
• Dollar Index – The USD is coiling in a bull flag as we approach Powell’s speech on Friday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 8/25-8/26 which is the New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 24, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX appears to be tracing out a 4^th wave correction from Monday, so we could see a 5^th wave down into the 8/25-8/26 New Moon Timing Window that undercuts 4100. As we said yesterday, just a corrective SPX bounce into Friday’s New Moon would be bearish and so we expect an undercut low. Overall, we believe that we’ve seen just a “bear market rally” from 6/17 and we believe that traders are not “fearing the Fed” here which could raise rates 1.5% higher going into yearend – as Marty Zweig used to say, “Don’t fight the Fed”. Crude oil is making run into the 8/25-8/26 New Moon Timing Window and is testing $96 overnight. Gold is rallying in 5-waves and testing $1770 overnight. The USD appears to be coiling in a triangle between 108 and 109 as we approach Powell’s speech early Friday.

8/24/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX bounce from Tuesday looks corrective (perhaps a 4^th wave) and it looks like we could see a SPX pattern completion below 4100 on Thursday. Overall, many traders are not “fearing the Fed” and that is bearish for lower prices in the intermediate term. The Fed could raise rates another 1.5 points before year end, but many traders are skeptical of this which is dangerous from our perspective. The SPX, NDX and IWM all gave us a Negative Volume Reversal Day on Wednesday and on Friday which painted a bearish tape. The SPX got as overbought as any time in 2022 and the dip buyers returned. However, the SPX undercut its symmetry correction target of 4234 last Friday, and this implied more correction into Tuesday/Friday. The astro-finance has been extremely intense so far in August and the Uranus aspects which served to accelerate global markets higher in early August may be reversing that influence now. We still view the SPX run from 6/17 as a bear market rally but its longevity is being tested this week – a run into mid-September is still possible but how we trade into Friday is key.  Crude oil is spiking to test $96 as we enter the 8/25-8/26 New Moon Timing Window. Gold rallied in 5-waves to test $1770 overnight Wednesday. The USD appears to be coiling between 108 and 109 as we approach Powell’s speech on Friday. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX gave us a Negative Volume Reversal Day on Wednesday and Friday and then another big down day on Monday – how we trade into Friday will determine if this rally can retest last week’s high at SPX 4325. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested $1740 early Monday and then rattled off a 5-wave rally to test $1770 overnight Wednesday.

• Stocks – The SPX has down hard the past three days and may need to undercut 4100 for a pattern completion tomorrow.
• Gold – Gold gave us a 5-wave rally from the early Monday low of $1740 into the 8/25-8/26 New Moon Timing Window.
• Silver – Silver’s rally from early Monday looks corrective.
• Bonds – Bonds made a low for the week at 136’05.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil spiked to test $96 and is carrying oil stocks higher.
• Dollar Index – The USD is coiling between 108 and 109 as we approach Powell’s speech on Friday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 8/25-8/26 which is the New Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 23, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The E-mini is making a lower low overnight Tuesday but could see a bounce into Friday’s New Moon and Powell’s speech. Just a corrective SPX bounce into Friday’s New Moon would be bearish. Overall, we believe that we’ve seen just a “bear market rally” from 6/17 and we believe that traders are not “fearing the Fed” here which could raise rates 1.5% higher going into year end. Crude oil tested $94 today and is beginning a run into the 8/26 New Moon. Gold tested $1744 early Tuesday and then rallied to touch $1767. The USD pulled back to test $108 early today and gave gold some room to rally.

8/22/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX may have made a low in Tuesday’s turn window and we now could see a bounce into Friday’s New Moon with Chairman Powell’s speech. Overall, many traders are not “fearing the Fed” and that is bearish for lower prices. The Fed could raise rates another 1.5 points before year end, but many traders are skeptical of this. The SPX, NDX and IWM all gave us a Negative Volume Reversal Day on Wednesday and on Friday which painted a bearish tape. The SPX got as overbought as any time in 2022 and the dip buyers returned. However, the SPX undercut its symmetry correction target of 4234 last Friday, and this implied more correction into Tuesday. The astro-finance has been extremely intense so far in August and the Uranus aspects which served to accelerate global markets higher in early August may be reversing that influence now. We still view the SPX run from 6/17 as a bear market rally but its longevity is being tested this week – a run into mid-September is still possible but how we trade into Friday is key.  Crude oil spiked to $94 Tuesday and oil stocks had a big run – this market is coiling for a run higher into the 8/26 New Moon. Gold bounced to $1767 Tuesday as the USD pulled back to 108. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX gave us a Negative Volume Reversal Day on Wednesday and Friday and then another big down day on Monday – how we trade into Friday will determine if this rally can retest last week’s high at SPX 4325. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold continues to sub-divide down bearishly as the USD makes higher highs above 109. We are now looking for an undercut of $1678 in the next two weeks.

• Stocks – The SPX, NDX and IWM have come down hard the past three days and are due a bounce into Friday’s New Moon – just a 3-wave corrective rally into Friday will be bearish.
• Gold – Gold gave us just a 3-wave bounce to $1767 which looks bearish.
• Silver – Silver appears to be giving us just a 4^th wave bounce here which is bearish.
• Bonds – Bonds dropped to 137’03 and continued their downtrend.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil spiked to $94 and carried oil stocks higher.
• Dollar Index – The USD pulled back to 108 and gave the PM sector a chance to bounce.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 8/23 which is the Tuesday after a monthly option expiration.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 22, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The bears jumped to short the SPX early Monday and the market is declining into the Tuesday turn window. The SPX failed on its first attempt at testing its 200-dma last week but still has a chance at making another leg higher as the selling today seemed overdone in some sectors. With Powell’s speech on Friday and the New Moon Friday, there is a chance for a SPX rally into the weekend. However, overall, we believe that we’ve seen just a “bear market rally” from 6/17 and we believe that traders are not “fearing the Fed” here which could raise rates 1.5% higher going into year end. Bitcoin’s plunge on Friday, testing 21048, set the SPX up for its plunge today. Crude oil pulled back early Monday but still is above $91 overnight – it appears to be basing for a run higher into Friday’s New Moon. Gold continued to sub-divide its C-Wave down and tested $1738 early Monday. The USD rallied to 109.1 during Monday’s session which is pressuring both the PM sector and the SPX.

8/22/22 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX ran into technical resistance last week and declined hard into the Tuesday turn window with Monday’s SPY volume being greater than Friday’s. Overall, many traders are not “fearing the Fed” and that is bearish for lower prices. The Fed could raise rates another 1.5 points before year end, but many traders are skeptical of this. How the SPX trades into Tuesday’s turn window will determine if this bear market rally is over. The SPX, NDX and IWM all gave us a Negative Volume Reversal Day on Wednesday and on Friday which painted a bearish tape. The SPX got as overbought as any time in 2022 and the dip buyers returned. However, the SPX undercut its symmetry correction target of 4234 on Friday – down to 4218 - and this implied more correction into Tuesday. The astro-finance has been extremely intense so far in August and the Uranus aspects which served to accelerate global markets higher in early August may be reversing that influence. The fact that Bitcoin plunged to 21180 on Friday also sets a negative tone for the SPX going into Monday. We still view the SPX run from 6/17 as a bear market rally but its longevity is being tested here – a run into mid-September is still possible but how we trade on Tuesday is key.  Crude oil corrected early Monday but rebounded over $91 overnight – this market is coiling for a run higher into the 8/26 New Moon. The C-Wave down for gold continued to sub-divide down and tested $1738 early Monday. The USD rallied to 109.2 on Monday pressuring the SPX and the PM sector. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX gave us a Negative Volume Reversal Day on Wednesday and Friday and then another big down day on Monday – how we trade into Tuesday’s turn window will determine if this rally can retest last week’s high at SPX 4325. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold continues to sub-divide down bearishly as the USD makes higher highs above 109. We are now looking for an undercut of $1678 in the next two weeks.

• Stocks – The SPX, NDX and IWM gave us Negative Volume Reversal Days on both Wednesday and Friday and that set us up for a big down day on Monday – how we trade into Tuesday’s turn window will determine the short-term trend going into Friday’s New Moon which features Powell’s speech.
• Gold – Gold is declining impulsively and tested $1738 early Monday.
• Silver – Silver dropped hard to $18.60 but only bounced correctively.
• Bonds – Bonds dropped to 137’25 and only bounced correctively which implies the trend is lower.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is coiling around $91 for a spike into Friday’s New Moon.
• Dollar Index – The USD made multi-week highs at 109.2 on Monday and senses that higher US rates are coming sooner rather than later.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 8/23 which is the Tuesday after a monthly option expiration.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - August 21, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX, NDX and IWM are undergoing a critical test this week. The SPX retraced 50%+ from the low on 6/17, tested its 200-dma and downtrend line and pulled back in a Negative Volume Reversal Day on Friday. How we trade into Tuesday’s turn window will determine if this rally was a bear market bounce or something more. Bitcoin’s plunge on Friday, testing 21048, is also a negative factor for the SPX. Crude oil tested its R1 resistance pivot at $91.50 on Friday and reversed down. Gold continued to sub-divide its C-Wave down and is testing $1759 late Friday as the USD spiked to 108.2. The USD put in a DCL (Daily Cycle Low) on 8/10 and has surprised many traders by its rally into the weekend.

8/21/22 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX is at a critical juncture this week. Last week it retraced >50% of its 2022 bear market and then tested its 200-dma and downtrend line from January. How it trades into Tuesday’s turn window will determine if this market rally is over. The SPX, NDX and IWM all gave us a Negative Volume Reversal Day on Wednesday and on Friday which paints a bearish tape. The SPX got as overbought as any time in 2022 and the dip buyers returned. However, the SPX undercut its symmetry correction target of 4234 on Friday – down to 4218 - and this implies more weakness into Tuesday. The astro-finance has been extremely intense so far in August and the Uranus aspects which served to accelerate global markets higher in early August may be reversing their influence. The fact that Bitcoin plunged to 21180 on Friday also sets a negative tone for the SPX going into Monday. We still view the SPX run from 6/17 as a bear market rally but its longevity is being tested here – a run into mid-September is still possible but how we trade into Tuesday is key.  Crude oil rebounded to test $91.50 on Friday but the rally doesn’t look impulsive so far. The C-Wave down for gold continues to sub-divide down and tested $1759 late Friday. The USD gave us a DCL on 8/10 and we saw 108.2 on Friday which is pressuring gold down. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX gave us a Negative Volume Reversal Day on Wednesday and Friday – how we trade into Tuesday’s turn window will determine if this rally has more to go. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold rallied impulsively from $1678 to $1824 on the 8/10 Full Moon but is now giving us a C-Wave down that has tested $1759 late Friday – the strong USD is pressuring gold.

• Stocks – The SPX, NDX and IWM gave us Negative Volume Reversal Days on both Wednesday and Friday – how we trade into Tuesday’s turn window will determine the short-term trend for the stock market.
• Gold – Gold is declining in a C-Wave that tested 1759 late Friday.  
• Silver – Silver pulled back hard to test $18.92 on Friday as the USD spiked.
• Bonds – Bonds tested 138’07 on Friday and may be rolling over.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $91.50 on Friday but the move was not impulsive.
• Dollar Index – The USD made multi-week highs at 108.2 on Friday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 8/23 which is the Tuesday after a monthly option expiration.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - August 18, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Today the SPX traded an inside day to yesterday’s FOMC day but the SPX is still in correction mode and could still target a symmetry correction to 4234 into option expiration Friday. Bitcoin is rolling over and testing 22660 overnight and that could be leading the way lower for the SPX on Friday’s open. Crude oil rebounded to test $91 but the trend still looks down. Gold continues to sub-divide its C-Wave down and is testing $1766 overnight as the USD spikes to 107.72. The USD put in a DCL (Daily Cycle Low) on 8/10 and appears ready to move higher.

8/18/22 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX tested its 200-dma and started a pullback into the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. The SPX, NDX and IWM all gave us a Negative Volume Reversal day on Wednesday and the correction could go past Option Expiration Friday. The SPX is as overbought as any time in 2022 but this rally appears to have staying power as dip buyers are buying the pullbacks. Our bias is for a symmetry correction to test 4234 by early Friday before starting a rally to test 4300+ by the 8/27 New Moon. The astro-finance has been extremely intense so far in August and the Uranus aspects have served to accelerate global markets higher. The fact that Bitcoin pulled back to 22060 overnight is suggesting a weak SPX open on Friday. We still view the SPX run from 6/17 as a bear market rally but it could last into mid-September and venture above SPX 4400. Crude oil rebounded to test $91, but the trend still looks down. The C-Wave down for gold continues to sub-divide down and tested $1766 so far overnight. The USD gave us a DCL on 8/10 and we are seeing 107.72 overnight which is pressuring gold. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX made an important ICL (intermediate cycle low) on the Fibonacci 5-month step out from the Jan high on 6/17 and we are now looking for this rally to last until the Fibonacci 8-month step out into September. After a quick pullback into Thursday that finds support near 4200, we could see the SPX rally to 4300+ into the 8/27 New Moon. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold rallied impulsively from $1678 to $1824 on the 8/10 Full Moon but is now giving us a C-Wave down that has tested $1766 overnight.

• Stocks – The SPX tested its 200-dma today at 4326 on Tuesday and started a pullback into the FOMC minutes. The SPY, QQQ, and IWM all gave us a Negative Volume Reversal Day down on Wednesday which set a negative tone. The SPX traded just an inside day on Thursday. We are looking for a symmetry correction to SPX 4234 early Friday before a reversal higher.
• Gold – Gold is declining in a C-Wave that is testing $1766 overnight.  
• Silver – Silver is pulling back hard overnight to test $19.22 as the USD spikes.
• Bonds – Bonds may be tracing out a bear flag pattern here that is starting to break down.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $91 but the trend still looks down to us.
• Dollar Index – The USD is making multi-week highs at 107.73 overnight.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 8/15 which is the last day of the Full Moon Timing Window.