Folks,
Market Observations for the Week: The SPX continued its rally into the New Moon today and tested 4080. With favorable earnings from AAPL and AMN, we could have a strong open on Friday, however, we are looking for a short-term high. As it turned out the SPX finished just a simple EW a-b-c correction at 3910 late Tuesday before rocketing higher on Wednesday’s fed Day and into today’s New Moon. The 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 6/17 low led to just a 3-wave correction into 7/26 which led to the and rally extension into today. The rally in crude oil still looks corrective to us so a thrust down into the 7/28-7/29 New Moon Timing Window is a possibility. Bitcoin followed the SPX higher again and tested 24126 - perhaps just a B-Wave test of 24300. Gold is spiking into the New Moon and testing its R1 resistance pivot at $1781.6 – rallying above $1785 could give us higher targets. The USD may be spiking down to its symmetry correction at 104.3.
7/28/22 (Commentary for Thursday) Despite the negative Q2 GDP number which is indicating a US recession, the SPX continued its rally into the 7/28-7/29 New Moon Timing Window. The 6/17 low at SPX 3636 was an intermediate cycle low and the 34-day Fibonacci step out from that low “has confirmed” more strength into the 7/28-7/29 New Moon Timing Window. Just a simple EW a-b-c SPX correction from 7/22 into late Tuesday set the market up for another rally leg. Typically, both the SPX and gold correct into Fed Wednesday. Bitcoin also made its low late Tuesday and headed higher in a big rally today. Crude oil still looks weak to us so our bias is for a spike down into the 7/28-7/29 New Moon Timing Window. Gold rallied post-Fed and is testing its R1 resistance pivot at $1781 overnight. The USD gave us a “head fake” post-ed to 107.4 before reversing down to potentially tag its symmetry correction target at 104.30. The Euro has made an important low and appears to be rallying impulsively. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.
Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX held up into the 7/21-7/22 and gave us just a 3-wave pullback into late Tuesday which set up the Fed Day rally extension to 4039 and into a test of 4080 on today’s New Moon. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.
Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold popped to $1758 post Fed and closed above the critical $1720 key support. We had “stink bids” in for GLD calls that never got triggered.
- Stocks – Despite a negative Q2 GDP number which indicates a US recession, the SPX continued its rally into the New Moon and tested 4081. With good earnings from AAPL and AMN, we are looking for a strong market early Friday.
- Gold – Gold popped to $1781 on a spike into the New Moon today – unfortunately our trigger to buy GLD calls was never touched post-Fed.
- Silver – Silver also spiked into today’s New Moon and is testing $20 overnight.
- Bonds – Bonds rallied on the negative Q2 GDP report and rallied to multi-week highs at 143’27.
- Crude Oil – Crude oil could see a spike lower into the 7/28-7/29 New Moon and test $93.11.
- Dollar Index – The USD gave us a head fake to 107.4 post-Fed before pulling back to test its symmetry target of 104.3 today. The Euro has made a major low.
TURNING POINT DAY
The turn window for this week is 7/27-7/28 which includes the 7/27 Fed day and the 7/28 New Moon.
Comments