The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 19, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us a trend up day as we approach the important 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 6/17 low on 7/21. Yesterday’s 4^th wave correction made us tentative, but today’s rally clearly traced out an EW 5-waves up from last week – the SPX is rallying into the key 7/20-7/21 turn window. Just a 3-wave corrective pullback from this turn window would be bullish for a test of 4000. Our solar-lunar tables predicted big volatility again on Tuesday and we got a 3.1% rally in the NDX. Bitcoin once again led the way and tested its R2 pivot at 23725, a multi-week high. After testing 90.56 on Thursday’s Full Moon Timing Window, crude oil may be just ending a 3-wave upside correction as it tested $101 today – that is bearish. Gold is treading sideways just above important support at $1700. Gold tested $1695 on the 7/13-7/14 Full Moon Timing Window but only gave us a shallow 3-wave bounce into Monday which was bearish. On Tuesday, gold could only test important resistance at $1720 before rolling over. The USD gave us an EW 5-waves down from 109.29 on the hourly chart and that is a SELL SIGNAL – the Euro appears to have made a major low.

7/19/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) Tuesday followed the predicted solar-lunar volatility by rallying to exceed Monday’s high in an impulsive manner. The SPX is clearly rallying into the 34-day Fibonacci step out from 6/17 on 7/20-7/21 and we expect a correction. The nature of the correction will enlighten us – just a 3-wave correction will suggest a test of SPX 4000. Once again Bitcoin led the market higher today and tested its R2 resistance pivot at 23725. Bitcoin continues to hold up overnight and that bodes well for the SPX early on Wednesday. Crude oil tested $101, but the rally pattern from the Full Moon low at $90.56 on 7/14 still looks just 3-wave corrective. Gold only gave us a shallow 3-wave bounce from its Full Moon low last week and still is unable to get above $1720 – still looks bearish. The USD declined in 5-waves from its 109.26 high last week and that is a SELL SIGNAL – the Euro has made an important low. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX rallied back from Monday’s decline and should hold up into the 7/20-7/21 turn window before a correction. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold is still finding resistance at $1720 and testing $1700 support. A washout to test $1675 is likely soon.

• Stocks – We were faked out – yesterday’s decline was just the 4^th wave of a larger impulse pattern. However, the SPX is now rallying into the 7/20-7/21 turn window and we are expecting some kind of pullback.
• Gold – Gold is still finding resistance at $1720 and testing $1700 support which looks weak.
• Silver – Silver is trending sideways here and could be tracing out a 4^th wave.
• Bonds – Bonds continue to correct as the 10-yr US rate holds above 3%.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil rallied in 3-waves from its Full Moon low and tested $101 Tuesday.
• Dollar Index – The USD fell in 5-waves from 109.26 to 106.41 during early Tuesday – this is a sell signal. The Euro has made a major low.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/21, the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 6/17 low.