All Star Market Timing

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - July 17, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: Our solar-lunar tables show big volatility on Monday for the NDX and that could be more blowoff higher or a reversal down. There was an hourly SPX turn window near Noon EDT on Friday and that just gave the SPX a sideways correction – that is bullish for higher SPX highs on Monday. Bitcoin is testing 21000 overnight Sunday and that gives a bullish bias to the SPX early Monday. After testing 90.56 on Thursday’s Full Moon Timing Window, crude oil only gave us a 3-wave bounce into late Friday before a reversal down on Sunday night – that is bearish.  Gold tested $1695 on the 7/13-7/14 Full Moon Timing Window and is bouncing sideways into Sunday evening. The USD spiked to 109.29 on Thursday and then pulled back in an EW a-b-c correction, so far, to 107.74 overnight Sunday.

7/17/22 (Commentary for Sunday) The bullish case is that the SPX made a low at 3721 in the Full Moon Timing Window and could bounce correctively to test 4000 into the 7/21 turn window. However, Monday has intense solar-lunar volatility cycles that could either give us more blowoff or reverse the SPX down. The failure of the hourly turn window at Noon EDT on Friday to turn the SPX down is bullish for early strength on Monday and the BTC rally to 21000 overnight Sunday is giving the stock market a bullish tone for early Monday. Crude oil only managed a 3-wave bounce from its $90.56 low on Thursday and that is bearish for at least a test of $90 again. The Option Premium Ratio dropped from 1.83 to 1.71 on Friday and that is bearish for the SPX on Monday. The USD made a new high of 109.29 on Thursday but then declined in an EW a-b-c correction into Sunday night. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The bearish view is that a large C-Wave down began on 7/8 and could break below the 6/17 low at 3636 by 7/21. The bullish view is that the SPX made an important low at 3721 on Thursday’s Full Moon Window and could test SPX 4000 by 7/21. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Pressured by a roaring USD, gold spiked down to test $1695 but failed to recover key support at $1720 by Friday’s close. A washout to test $1675 this week is likely.

• Stocks – The SPX made a short-term low on the Full Moon at 3721 on Thursday and rallied hard into Friday’s close. Our solar-lunar cycle for Monday shows extreme volatility – the bear case calls for a reversal into 7/21, the bull case calls for a test of SPX 4000. How the SPX trades on Monday will enlighten us.
• Gold – Gold tested $1695 on Thursday’s Full Moon Timing Window but more importantly failed to close above key support at $1720 at Friday’s close – this opens gold up to a test of $1695 this week.
• Silver – Silver tested $18 on Thursday’s Full Moon Timing Window but its bounce into the weekend looked corrective.
• Bonds – Bonds made highs for the week on Friday despite the hot CPI and PPI report.
• Crude Oil – After just a 3-wave bounce after bounce from $90.56 on Thursday, crude oil is rolling over to test $90 again which is bearish.
• Dollar Index – The USD gave us an EW a-b-c decline and tested 107.74 overnight Sunday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/21, the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 6/17 low.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 14, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The hotter than expected CPI report was followed by the hotter than hoped PPI report and the SPX fell to test the 3700 before rebounding into the close. Overnight, the news of a Chinese contraction in there Q2 GDP casts a pall over the global economy. Our bias is that the SPX is dropping in a C-Wave from 7/8 and that we may have entered a Wave 3 of C this morning. Today’s hot PPI report recirculated rumors of a 100-basis- point rise by the Fed at their next meeting. Crude oil dropped to $90.56 in the 7/12-7/14 Full Moon Timing Window as a Fed determined to make a 100-basis point move could dampen the US economy stronger than anticipated. Despite the NDX closing a positive day after the early drubbing, our view is for more market decline into 7/20, the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 6/17 SPX low at 3636. Bonds rallied from an early low and is testing 139’23 overnight. The USD spiked to yet another high at 109.29 and that pressured gold down to $1695.

7/14/22 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX rally back after the early test of 3721 appears to be a Wave-C of an EW a-b-c correction that started after yesterday’s CPI report and that makes us bearish for more decline into next week’s 7/20 turn window. Jamie Dimon’s sour view of the global economy, the Q2 contraction in the Chinese economy and the mercurial winds of war drifting out of the Ukraine all add up to huge risks to global growth in the 2^nd half of 2022. We expect the C-Wave move down from 7/8 to continue sub-dividing bearishly and a test of SPX 3636 should be imminent. Traders continued to add to their puts today as the Option Premium Ratio moved from 1.76 to 1.83. Crude oil gave us an undercut low to $90.56 after Dimon’s downbeat view on global growth in the 2^nd half. The USD spiked to another new high of 109.29 as gold got pounded to $1695 early in the session. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Our view is that a large C-Wave down began on 7/8 and  could break below the 6/17 low at 3636 by 7/20 – we may have entered a Wave 3 of C early today.  Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Pressured by a roaring USD, gold spiked down to test $1695 but failed to recover key support at $1720 by today’s close. A washout to test $1675 into next week is likely.

• Stocks – The PPI report came in hot and the dour comments from Jamie Dimon about global growth prospects for the 2^nd half of 2022 did not cheer the market. Our view is that the early low today at SPX 1721 was a “running B-wave” low and that the bounce back into the close was the C-wave of an EW a-b-c correction that may have already peaked.
• Gold – Pressured by a spiking USD, gold tested $1695 early but more importantly failed to close above key support at $1720 at the close – this opens gold up to a test of $1695 soon.
• Silver – Silver gave us just a sideways bounce today that could reverse down early Friday.
• Bonds – Bonds held up well after the hot PPI report as Jamie Dimon’s sour outlook for 2^nd half global growth gave bonds a bid.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil fell to $90.56 on prospects for weaker global growth into year end.
• Dollar Index – The USD spiked to 109.56 early Thursday and then started a correction.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/12-7/14, the Full Moon Timing Window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 13, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The CPI report came in hot on today’s Full Moon and we made a trading low early before a 3-wave corrective bounce. Commentators (like Jim Cramer) argued that the June CPI report was backward looking and the worst inflation that we will be seeing this year, but rumors of a 100-basis point rise by the Fed at the next meeting started making the rounds. Crude oil declined to $93.67 yesterday as we entered the 7/12-7/14 Full Moon Timing Window and traded in a tight-range today. Bitcoin made an undercut low and tagged 18860 this morning and then rallied to test its R1 pivot resistance at 20220 – this could be a positive omen for the SPX after tomorrow’s PPI inflation report. Bonds opened down but rallied to highs for the week. The USD rallied to highs for the year at 108.58 before correcting sideways. Gold tagged $1704.5 early but rebounded back to $1744 near mid-day before pulling back.

7/13/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) The rally after the CPI report looked corrective but could continue into early Thursday. The PPI report could bring us a relief rally on Thursday but we expect that to be just a C-Wave rally of an a-b-c correction. We expect the C-Wave move down from 7/8 to continue sub-dividing bearishly. Traders loaded up on index puts today and one wonders if the PPI numbers were leaked early. Crude oil gave us an undercut low to $93.67 on Tuesday but traded in a tight range on today’s exact Full Moon. The USD rallied to a new high of 108.58 as gold got pounded early before a bounce to $1743 mid-day. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX traced out a B-Wave test of 3945 on Friday and then gave us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly which confirmed an important high on Friday was made and that a C-Wave down is now in progress. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Pressured by a roaring USD, gold spiked below key support at $1720 and tagged $1704.5 before rebounding to test $1743 and finally close above key support at $1720. A washout to $1675 by August is still possible.

• Stocks – The CPI report came in hot and the SPX came down early to test 3760 before rebounding. The post-CPI rally looks 3-wave corrective but it allows for a relief rally after tomorrow’s PPI inflation report.
• Gold – Gold continued to get slammed as the USD hit 108.58 – $1704.5 was tested early before a rebound and close above key support at $1720.
• Silver – Silver reversed up after the CPI report and tagged $19.35 before trading below $19 overnight Wednesday.
• Bonds – Bonds rallied in 5-waves to a weekly high today after the CPI report – some traders believe that today’s CPI report will be the peak for the year.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil fell to $93.67 Tuesday and traded in a tight-range on today’s Full Moon.
• Dollar Index – The USD spiked to 108.58 after the CPI report early Wednesday and then started a sideways correction.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/11-7/12.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 12, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX declined impulsively from Friday into Tuesday’s close on the eve of the CPI report early Wednesday. Declining energy prices may foreshadow a weaker year-over-year number early tomorrow, but if all we get is a 3-wave bounce after the CPI report, the C-Wave down will continue to sub-divide down. Bitcoin is testing 19000 overnight and is paralleling weakness with the E-mini. Crude oil made an undercut low to 93.67 which is validating our predicted weakness. The USD is rallying to a new high at 108.56 overnight Tuesday and that continues to pressure gold and silver down.

7/12/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX and NDX finished an EW 5-waves from Friday’s high at 3918 and that confirms that Friday was an important high in our work. Has the entire C-Wave down now finished or just Wave 1 of C? How we trade after the CPI report early Wednesday should tell the tale. The SPX is declining impulsively into the CPI inflation report on Wednesday which should set the market tone for the rest of the week. Crude oil gave us an undercut low to $93.67 and that validates our bearish view. The USD rallied to a new high of 108.56 as gold continued to get pounded down to important support at $1720. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX traced out a B-Wave test of 3945 on Friday and then gave us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly which confirmed an important high on Friday was made. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Pressured by a spiking USD, gold fell to test important support at $1720. A washout to $1675 by August is possible.

• Stocks – The SPX gave us a B-Wave test of its 200-hourly-ma going into the NFP jobs report early Friday and then declined in 5-waves down into Tuesday’s close which is bearish. How we trade after the CPI report will set the tone.
• Gold – Gold continues to get slammed as the USD hit 108.56 – we may be close to an important low in gold stocks by August.
• Silver – Silver touched a lower low at $18.63 and closed below $19.
• Bonds – Bonds appear bullish and we may continue to see lower rates as a spiking USD pressures commodities down.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil fell to $93.67 and is validating our bearish view.
• Dollar Index – The USD spiked to 108.56 on Tuesday as stocks sold off into Wednesday’s CPI report.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/11-7/12.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 11, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us an EW 5-wave decline from Friday into today and our view now is that a B-Wave test of the 6/28 high was made on Friday and that we are now heading down in a C-Wave into the 7/20-7/21 turn window. The SPX is declining impulsively into Wednesday’s CPI inflation report which should set the market tone for the rest of the week. Bitcoin also declined in an EW 5-wave decline from Friday to confirm the negative tone in the SPX.  The USD is rallying to 108.49 overnight and that continues to pressure gold and silver down.

7/11/22 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX finished an EW 5-waves from Friday’s high at 3918 and that confirms that Friday was an important high in our work. The SPX is declining impulsively into the CPI inflation report on Wednesday which should set the market tone for the rest of the week. A solid earnings report from COSTCO also argues that the retail consumer is still hanging in there despite high prices at the pump. Crude oil still looks bearish to us but a break below $95.1 is needed to confirm our C-Wave down wave count. The USD rallied to a new high of 108.49 as gold continued to get pounded down to important support at $1720. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX traced out a B-Wave test of 3945 on Friday and then gave us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly which confirmed an important high on Friday was made. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Pressured by a spiking USD, gold fell to test important support at $1720. A washout to $1675 by August is possible.

• Stocks – The SPX gave us a B-Wave test of its 200-hourly-ma going into the NFP jobs report early Friday and then declined in 5-waves down into Monday which is bearish.
• Gold – Gold continues to get slammed as the USD hit 108.49.
• Silver – Silver tested $19 again today and appears weak.
• Bonds – Bonds rallied in 5-waves and tested the R1 resistance pivot at 139’16.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil still looks bearish for a test of $90 to us.
• Dollar Index – The USD spiked to 108.49 on Monday as stocks sold off into Wednesday’s CPI report.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/11-7/12.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - July 10, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us a gap-down open after the strong NFP jobs report but the SPX bounced back in what appeared to be a 4^th wave pattern. By our count, the SPX still needs a 5^th wave for a pattern completion into 7/11-7/12.  A B-Wave test of the 6/28 high at SPX 3945 jumps looks likely into early next week. The USD rallied to another new high at 107.79  and may have started a 4^th wave correction.

7/10/22 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX may be giving us just a B-Wave test of the 6/28 high at 3945 and a final thrust higher to 3945 on Monday/Tuesday is expected. The NFP number came in at 372000 and blew away the consensus number at 250,000 and that could drive a test of SPX 4000 by Tuesday. Crude oil needs to validate our bearish count by taking out $95.1 on Monday/Tuesday. The USD rallied to a new high of 107.79 before a 4^th wave correction took hold. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX could be tracing out a B-Wave test of 3945 going into our 7/11-7/12 turn window.  Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold was further pressured down this week and tested $1726 as the USD spiked to 107.79. The sideways action late in the session argues for more down into Friday’s NFP jobs report.

• Stocks – The SPX gave us a B-Wave test of its 200-hourly-ma going into the NFP jobs report early Friday. A thrust higher to test 3945 on Monday/Tuesday’s turn window is our bias.  
• Gold – Gold got slammed down to $1726 on Friday from the collapsing Euro and spiking USD. Gold has a tendency to decline into Friday’s NFP jobs report and an undercut low below $1730.7 was possible.
• Silver – Silver traced out a sideways pattern into Friday that looks bearish. Silver typically declines into the monthly NFP jobs report on Friday.
• Bonds – The strong NFP jobs report hit bonds and gave the 10-yr US rate a bounce to 3.1%.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil still looks down for a test of $90 to us.
• Dollar Index – The USD spiked to 107.79 on Friday on the strong NFP jobs report.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/11-7/12.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 07, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX had a big rally day and tested its 200-hourly-ma as we get the NFP jobs report early Friday. Our “bear flag pattern” idea doesn’t look right but a B-Wave test of the 6/28 high at SPX 3945 jumps out at us. How the SPX perceives the NFP jobs report early Friday is key. Bitcoin is testing 22500 overnight and that bodes well for the SPX early Friday. The USD gave us just a shallow 3-wave correction and looks ready to test the high at 107.26.

7/07/22 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX may be giving us just a B-Wave test of the 6/28 high at 3945. On a weaker than expected NFP jobs report on Friday, the SPX could test 3738 as economic weakness gets more discounted by the market. On a close to consensus NFP number, the SPX could be testing 4000. The market is shifting from inflation fears to recession fears as many key commodities like crude oil and copper have been rolling over. Our bias remains that crude oil is in a C-Wave down from the B-Wave top at $123.57 on 6/14 and that it could test $87-$90 soon. The USD only gave us a shallow 3-wave correction and is looking to test its high at 107.29 overnight. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX could be tracing out a B-Wave test of 3945 on 6/28 that could kick off a C-Wave down after the NFP jobs report.  Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold was further pressured down this week and tested $1730.7 as the USD spiked to 107.29. The sideways action late in the session argues for more down into Friday’s NFP jobs report.

• Stocks – The SPX bear-flag pattern doesn’t look right here, but the SPX may have given us a B-Wave test of its 200-dma going into the NFP jobs report early Friday. We could see a C-Wave down on a weaker than expected report.
• Gold – Gold got slammed down again to $1730.7 from the collapsing Euro and spiking USD. Gold has a tendency to decline into Friday’s NFP jobs report and an undercut low below $1730.7 is possible.
• Silver – Silver only gave us a 3-wave bounce into Thursday so an undercut of $18.70 is possible early Friday. Silver typically declines into the monthly NFP jobs report on Friday.
• Bonds – A strong NFP jobs report could derail the bonds here by spiking rates.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil still looks down for a test of $90 to us.
• Dollar Index – The USD spiked to 107.26 on Wednesday and appears to have higher targets in mind after just a shallow 3-wave correction.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/8 – the NFP jobs report.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 6, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: On today’s Fed minutes day, the SPX tested the upper trendline of its bearish wedge and reversed down near the close. If the SPX declines below 3738, there is a chance for more selling into the 7/20-7/21 turn window. A typical “bear flag pattern” will include three rally attempts and we may have ended today on the 3^rd rally attempt today. From here, taking out SPX 3738 would argue for more washout into the 7/20-7/21 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 6/17 low. Crude oil tested $95.51 and bounced correctively – we may have entered a Wave 3 of C down to test $90 soon. Bitcoin held up above 20000 for most of the trading day and tested its R1 resistance pivot at 20620 overnight. The Euro’s collapse to 20-yr lows spiked the USD to 107.26 which pressured gold down to $1730.7.

7/06/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX tested the upper trendline of its bearish wedge late in the session and reversed down but the NDX outperformed because of its interest rate sensitivity. On a weaker than expected NFP jobs report on Friday, the SPX could test the 6/17 low at 3637 but the strength in the NDX is bullish and makes that market projection too problematical to trade for us.  The market is shifting from inflation fears to recession fears as many key commodities like crude oil and copper have been rolling over. However, our TRIN-5 indicator continues very oversold at an elevated 7.46 and this could still prime the SPX for more washout this week in the SPX. Crude oil fell to test $95.1 before the Fed minutes today and started to bounce correctively overnight. Our bias remains that crude oil is in a C-Wave down from the B-Wave top at $123.57 on 6/14 and that it could test $87-$90 soon. A collapsing Euro spiked the USD to multi-year highs at 107.29 and that pressured gold down to $1730.7. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX is tracing out a “bear flag pattern” and today’s post-Fed rally tested the upper trendline of its bearish wedge before reversing down.  Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold was further pressured down today and tested $1930.7 as the USD spiked to 107.29. The sideways action late in the session argues for more down into Friday’s NFP jobs report.

• Stocks – The SPX continued its rally after the FOMC minutes but reversed down after testing the upper trendline of the bearish wedge. The support at 3730 did hold today but the late rally may be the 3^rd and final rally attempt in a “bear flag pattern” that looks terminal. A flush to SPX 3500 is possible if we get a weak NFP jobs report on Friday.
• Gold – Gold got slammed down again to $1730.7 from the collapsing Euro and spiking USD. Gold has a tendency to decline into Friday’s NFP jobs report.
• Silver – Silver tested $18.97 today and looks lower. Silver typically declines into the monthly NFP jobs report on Friday.
• Bonds – Bonds spiked to 142’06 today as the 10-yr US rate tested 2.91% - the stock market is shifting its concerns away from inflation to recession.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil plunged below $101.53 and may have entered a Wave 3 of C down – we tested $95.1.
• Dollar Index – The USD spiked to 107.26 on Wednesday and appears to have higher targets in mind.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/8 – the NFP jobs report.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 5, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The trade in SPX and several other markets asserted themselves DOWN on today’s tape. The E-mini turned down overnight and gave the SPX a gap-down open. The SPX made its lows early in the session and then rallied into the close – it appears to us that the SPX has been tracing out a “bear flag pattern” since early Thursday. A typical “bear flag pattern” will include three rally attempts and we may have ended today on the 3^rd rally attempt. From here, taking out SPX 3830 would argue for more washout into the 7/20-7/21 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 6/17 low. Crude oil reacted to numerous calls for recession and fell to test $97.43 – it may have entered a Wave 3 of C down to test $90 soon. Bitcoin tested 20500 today but it may be also tracing out a “bear flag pattern”. The Euro’s collapse to 20-yr lows spiked the USD to test 106.79 which pressured gold down to $1763.

7/05/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) The trade on Tuesday has defined the trend in the SPX and crude oil to be DOWN. On a weaker than expected NFP jobs report on Friday, the SPX could be testing the 6/17 low at 3637.  The market is shifting from inflation fears to recession fears as many key commodities like crude oil and copper have been rolling over. Our TRIN-5 indicator continues very oversold at an elevated 7.38 and this could still be primed for more washout this week in the SPX. Crude oil plunged below $101.53, as we had anticipated, and tested $97.43. Our bias remains that crude oil is in a C-Wave down from the B-Wave top at $123.57 on 6/14 and that it could test $87-$90 soon. A collapsing Euro spiked the USD to multi-year highs at 106.79 and that pressured gold down to $1763. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX is clearly tracing out a “bear flag pattern” and today’s late rally may be the third rally attempt that could reverse down hard.  Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold was crushed today down to $1763 on the back of a strong USD and weak Euro. The sideways action late in the session argues for more down into Friday’s NFP jobs report.

• Stocks – The E-mini rolled over overnight and gave the SPX a gap-down open. The support at 3730 did hold today but the late rally may be the 3^rd and final rally attempt in a “bear flag pattern” that looks terminal. A flush to SPX 3500 is possible if we get a weak NFP jobs report on Friday.
• Gold – Gold got slammed down to $1763 from the collapsing Euro and spiking USD. Gold has a tendency to decline into Friday’s NFP jobs report.
• Silver – Silver tested $18.97 today and looks lower. Silver typically declines into the monthly NFP jobs report on Friday.
• Bonds – Bonds spiked to 141’17 today as the 10-yr US rate tested 2.87% - the stock market is shifting its concerns away from inflation to recession.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil plunged below $101.53 and may have entered a Wave 3 of C down – we still are looking for a test of $90.
• Dollar Index – The USD spiked to 106.79 on Tuesday and appears to have higher targets in mind.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/8 – the NFP jobs report.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - July 4, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us the first leg down in its bear market from from Jan 4 to June 17 and since then are rallying in a 3-wave corrective bounce. The 13-day Fibonacci step out from 6/17 to 6/30 gave us a trading low on 6/30 at SPX 3738 and then we bounced into Friday’s 3828. If the C-Wave of an a-b-c bounce started on 6/30, we could see a symmetry test of SPX 4000 this week. However, taking out 3830 would argue for more washout into the 7/20-7/21 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 6/17 low. How we trade on Tuesday will be key to the short-term trend. Crude oil gave us a 3-wave bounce into Monday - how we trade on Tuesday is key. Bitcoin tagged 18525 last Thursday before rebounding – how it trades on Tuesday is also important. Gold took out its 5/16 low and tested $1783 on 6/30 and then rebounded.  The 3-star critical reversal day for gold fell ideally on 6/30 and came in as a low. The USD spiked to a weekly high at 105.65 on Friday.

7/04/22 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX reversed up on the 13-day Fibonacci step out at 3738 on 6/30 and finished Friday strong – a symmetry a-b-c corrective bounce from 6/17 could see us testing SPX 4000 this week. However, the 3-wave rally up to 3940 on 6/28 could have been the entire a-b-c bounce and a move under SPX 3738 could take us down to new lows under the 6/17 low by the 7/20-21 turn window. Our TRIN-5 indicator continues very oversold at an elevated 6.95 and this could be still arguing for more washout this week – how we trade on Tuesday will set the short-term trend for the SPX. Bitcoin tagged 18525 on Thursday and is trying to bounce – how we trade on Tuesday will be important to its short-term trend. Crude oil is giving us a 3 - wave bounce from Thursday into Monday – we have viewed last week’s rally in crude oil as CORRECTIVE and are looking for lows below $101.53. Our bias remains that crude oil is in a C-Wave down from the B-Wave top at $123.57 on 6/14 and that it could test $87-$90 soon. Gold took out the 5/16 low and tested $1883 on 6/30 which was the ideal 3-star critical reversal day – an important short-term low was made. The USD rallied to 105.65 on Friday and higher targets are still in play. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX reversed higher at 3738 on 6/30 and bounced into Friday’s close at 3830 – how we trade on Tuesday is key for the short-term trend.  Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold and gold stocks washed out into the New Moon Timing Window last week on 6/30 and bounced. Gold turned up on the ideal 3-star critical reversal day on 6/30.  

• Stocks – The SPX made a low on the 13-day Fibonacci step out from 6/17 at 3738 on 6/30 and bounced into Friday’s close – a symmetry EW a-b-c corrective bounce could test 4000 this week – how we trade on Tuesday will set the short-term trend.
• Gold – Gold and gold stocks washed out into last week’s New Moon on 6/30 which was also the 3-star critical reversal day. Gold may have made a short-term low.
• Silver – Silver tested $19.29 on the 6/30 low and bounced. Gold and silver typically decline into the monthly NFP jobs report on Friday.
• Bonds – Bonds spiked to 141’11 on Friday and the 10-yr US rate tested 2.79%.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $110 on Monday in global markets – we still are looking for a test of $90.
• Dollar Index – The USD spiked to 105.65 on Friday and appears to have higher targets in mind.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/8 – the NFP jobs report.