All Star Market Timing

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - July 31, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX rallied into the 7/28-7/29 New Moon Timing Window and started a correction that could run into Monday/Tuesday.  The E-mini appears to have given us a “Running B-Wave” correction on Friday which is a bullish continuation pattern. Both AAPL and AMZN just gave us sideways corrections after their earnings reports which is bullish. Bitcoin appears to be giving us an EW a-b-c correction overnight Sunday which argues for a weak SPX open on Monday. Crude oil may have finished an EW a-b-c correction that tested its R2 resistance pivot at $101.51 on Friday. The rally in crude oil still looks corrective to us so a thrust down into Monday is a possibility. Gold spiked into Friday and tested its R1 resistance pivot at $1781.6 – rallying above $1785 could give us higher targets. The USD could be heading down to test its symmetry correction target at 104.3.  

7/31/22 (Commentary for Sunday) Despite the negative Q2 GDP number which is technically a US recession,  the SPX continued its rally into the 7/28-7/29 New Moon Timing Window and may have made a short-term peak late Friday. The 6/17 low at SPX 3636 was an intermediate cycle low and the 34-day Fibonacci step out from that low “confirmed more strength” into the 7/28-7/29 New Moon Timing Window. Just a simple EW a-b-c SPX correction from Friday into Monday/Tuesday would be bullish for a test of SPX 4300. Bitcoin made its low late Tuesday and traded higher into the 7/28-7/29 New Moon Timing Window to 24620 – Bitcoin follows the lunar cycle pretty tightly. Crude oil still looks weak to us so our bias is for a spike down into Monday after finishing a weak EW a-b-c bounce into Friday. Gold rallied post-Fed and tested its R1 resistance pivot at $1782 on Friday. The USD gave us a “head fake” post-ed to 107.4 before reversing down to potentially tag its symmetry correction target at 104.30. The Euro has made an important low and appears to be rallying impulsively. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX appears to have made a short-term peak on Friday and could correct into Tuesday before a run higher to 4300. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold popped to test $1782 post Fed and closed far above the critical $1720 key support on Friday.  A close above $1785 would open up some higher targets.

• Stocks – Despite a negative Q2 GDP number which technically indicates a US recession, the SPX continued its rally into Friday and tested 4140. Both AAPL and AMZN held up after their earnings games which is positive for the market.
• Gold – Gold popped to test $1782 into Friday – a close above $1785 would open up a test of $1800.
• Silver – Silver really spiked into the New Moon Timing Window and touched $20.55 on Friday which is a multi-week high.
• Bonds – Bonds rallied on the negative Q2 GDP report and rallied to multi-week highs at 144’12 on Friday.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil may have finished a weak a-b-c bounce to $101.51 on Friday and could be down on Monday.
• Dollar Index – The USD gave us a head fake to 107.4 post-Fed before pulling back to test its symmetry target of 104.3 overnight Sunday. The Euro has made a major low.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 8/1-8/2.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 28, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX continued its rally into the New Moon today and tested 4080. With favorable earnings from AAPL and AMN, we could have a strong open on Friday, however, we are looking for a short-term high. As it turned out the SPX finished just a simple EW a-b-c correction at 3910 late Tuesday before rocketing higher on Wednesday’s fed Day and into today’s New Moon. The 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 6/17 low led to just a 3-wave correction into 7/26 which led to the and rally extension into today. The rally in crude oil still looks corrective to us so a thrust down into the 7/28-7/29 New Moon Timing Window is a possibility. Bitcoin followed the SPX higher again and tested 24126 - perhaps just a B-Wave test of 24300. Gold is spiking into the New Moon and testing its R1 resistance pivot at $1781.6 – rallying above $1785 could give us higher targets. The USD may be spiking down to its symmetry correction at 104.3.  

7/28/22 (Commentary for Thursday) Despite the negative Q2 GDP number which is indicating a US recession,  the SPX continued its rally into the 7/28-7/29 New Moon Timing Window. The 6/17 low at SPX 3636 was an intermediate cycle low and the 34-day Fibonacci step out from that low “has confirmed” more strength into the 7/28-7/29 New Moon Timing Window. Just a simple EW a-b-c SPX correction from 7/22 into late Tuesday set the market up for another rally leg. Typically, both the SPX and gold correct into Fed Wednesday. Bitcoin also made its low late Tuesday and headed higher in a big rally today. Crude oil still looks weak to us so our bias is for a spike down into the 7/28-7/29 New Moon Timing Window. Gold rallied post-Fed and is testing its R1 resistance pivot at $1781 overnight. The USD gave us a “head fake” post-ed to 107.4 before reversing down to potentially tag its symmetry correction target at 104.30. The Euro has made an important low and appears to be rallying impulsively. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX held up into the 7/21-7/22 and gave us just a 3-wave pullback into late Tuesday which set up the Fed Day rally extension to 4039 and into a test of 4080 on today’s New Moon. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold popped to $1758 post Fed and closed above the critical $1720 key support.  We had “stink bids” in for GLD calls that never got triggered.

• Stocks – Despite a negative Q2 GDP number which indicates a US recession, the SPX continued its rally into the New Moon and tested 4081. With good earnings from AAPL and AMN, we are looking for a strong market early Friday.
• Gold – Gold popped to $1781 on a spike into the New Moon today – unfortunately our trigger to buy GLD calls was never touched post-Fed.
• Silver – Silver also spiked into today’s New Moon and is testing $20 overnight.
• Bonds – Bonds rallied on the negative Q2 GDP report and rallied to multi-week highs at 143’27.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil could see a spike lower into the 7/28-7/29 New Moon and test $93.11.
• Dollar Index – The USD gave us a head fake to 107.4 post-Fed before pulling back to test its symmetry target of 104.3 today. The Euro has made a major low.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/27-7/28 which includes the 7/27 Fed day and the 7/28 New Moon.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 27, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX received the 75-basis point rate hike well today and some Fed critics actually believe that the Fed has regained some of its credibility. As it turned out the SPX finished just a simple EW a-b-c correction at 3910 late Tuesday before rocketing higher on today’s Fed Day. The 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 6/17 low led to just a 3-wave correction and today’s rally extension. The rally in crude oil still looks corrective to us so a thrust down into the 7/28-7/29 New Moon Timing Window is a possibility. Bitcoin followed the market higher and tested 23462 near its R1 resistance pivot. Gold rallied post-Fed and is testing $1752 overnight – well above the critical $1720 resistance line. The Fed rate hike spiked the USD to 107.39 but it fell back to 106.17 overnight.  

7/27/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX reversed down on the 7/21-7/22 turn window and gave us a simple EW a-b-c correction to 3910 late Tuesday before the extended rally on Wednesday. The 6/17 low at SPX 3636 was an intermediate cycle low and the 34-day Fibonacci step out from that low “has confirmed” more strength into the 7/28-7/29 New Moon Timing Window. Just a simple a-b-c SPX correction down into late Tuesday set the market up for another rally leg. Typically, both the SPX and gold correct into Fed Wednesday. Bitcoin also made its low late Tuesday and reversed up in a big rally today. The rally in crude oil still looks corrective to us so our bias is for a spike down into the 7/28-7/29 New Moon Timing Window. Gold rallied post-Fed and tested $1758 overnight. The USD gave us a “head fake” post-ed to 107.4 before reversing down to test weekly lows at 106.15. The Euro has made an important low and appears to be rallying impulsively. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX held up into the 7/21-7/22 and gave us just a 3-wave pullback into late Tuesday which set up the Fed Day rally extension to 4039. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold popped to $1758 post Fed and closed above the critical $1720 key support.  We had “stink bids” in for GLD calls that never got triggered.

• Stocks – The SPX made a simple a-b-c correction into late Tuesday at 3910 – and this was bullish for a Fed Day rally extension.
• Gold – Gold popped to $1758 post-Fed and held the gains into the close. Our trigger to buy GLD calls was never touched post-Fed.
• Silver – Silver also rallied hard post-Fed on good volume and is testing $19.25 overnight.
• Bonds – Bonds held up well after the ed rate hike.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil could see a spike lower into the 7/28-7/29 New Moon.
• Dollar Index – The USD gave us a head fake to 107.4 post-Fed before pulling back to test weekly lows at $106.15 overnight. The Euro has made a major low.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/27-7/28 which includes the 7/27 Fed day and the 7/28 New Moon.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 26, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX continued its correction from Friday into Fed Wednesday – for just a simple EW a-b-c correction, we get a symmetry target of 3880. Our turn window on 7/21 was based on the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 6/17 low which is important to determine trend in the SPX. Crude oil rolled over today and tested $94.67 – a low into the 7/28 New Moon is a possibility into the 7/28 New Moon. Bitcoin continued its decline to test its S2 support pivot at 20739 again today – the decline in Bitcoin is looking impulsive. Gold closed at $1738 today – above the key $1720 resistance line – an undercut low below $1678 post-Fed is a possibility. The USD has a symmetry target of 104.3 going into Fed Wednesday.  

7/26/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX reversed down on the 7/21-7/22 turn window and so far the correction looks like a simple EW a-b-c affair as we head into Fed Wednesday . The 6/17 low at SPX 3636 was an intermediate cycle low and the 34-day Fibonacci step out from that low will “test the strength” of this rally leg. Just a simple a-b-c SPX correction down into Fed Wednesday could set the market up for another rally leg after the Fed minutes on 7/27. However, if we get an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart from Friday’s early high post-Fed, this will be a SELL SIGNAL. Typically, both the SPX and gold correct into Fed Wednesday. Bitcoin diverged from the SPX late last week making a lower high and then continued its decline today – Bitcoin could be a bearish tell for the SPX here. Bitcoin peaked at 24300 last Wednesday and gave us a heads up of the SPX correction on Friday. Crude oil pulled back to $94.67 on Tuesday and the move into the 7/28 New Moon could be a high or low at this point. Gold closed above key support at $1720 Tuesday – gold could still make an undercut low of $1678 which would be a buy signal post-Fed. The USD is working on an EW a-b-c correction with a symmetry target around 104.3. The Euro has made an important low and appears to be rallying impulsively. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX held up into the 7/21-7/22 and made a high at 4012 early Friday – just a 3-wave pullback into the Fed Wednesday could give us a post-Fed rally extension. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold closed well above $1720 today as gold does its typical correction into Fed Wednesday. There is a chance that gold could undercut $1678 after the Fed minutes on Wednesday, and this could give us a short-term buy signal in gold.

• Stocks – The SPX appears to be making a simple a-b-c correction into Fed Wednesday – this could be bullish for a post-Fed rally extension.
• Gold – Gold closed at $1738 Tuesday- well above above $1720 today. If gold undercuts $1678 after the Fed minutes on Wednesday, that would be a short-term buy signal.
• Silver – Silver is tracing out a sideways triangle on its hourly chart.
• Bonds – Bonds tested highs for the week at 143’11 today and have a seasonal tendency to bounce into the Fed minutes.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil fell to test $94.67 today - we could see a spike lower into the 7/28 New Moon.
• Dollar Index – The USD has a symmetry correction target that could take us to 104.3. The Euro has made a major low.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/27-7/28 which includes the 7/27 Fed day and the 7/28 New Moon.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 25, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX continued its correction from Friday – just a 3-wave decline that holds SPX 3929 (previous 4^th wave) should be bullish for more gains into the 7/28 New Moon. Our turn window on 7/21 was based on the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 6/17 low which is important to determine trend in the SPX. Crude oil is rallying to test its R1 resistance pivot overnight at $97.98 and could rally into the 7/28 New Moon. Bitcoin continued its decline to test its S2 support pivot at 20842. Gold is struggling to hold its key support at $1720 on a daily basis – an undercut low below $1678 post-fed is a possibility. The USD has a symmetry target of 104.3 going into ed Wednesday.  

7/25/22 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX reversed down on the 7/21-7/22 turn window and the nature of this correction will tell us a lot early this week. The 6/17 low at SPX 3636 was an intermediate cycle low and the 34-day Fibonacci step out from that low will “test the strength” of this rally leg. Just a simple a-b-c SPX correction down into Fed Wednesday could set the market up for another rally leg after the Fed minutes on 7/27. However, if we get an EW 5-waves down from Friday’s early high post-Fed, this will be a SELL SIGNAL. Typically, both the SPX and gold correct into Fed Wednesday. Bitcoin diverged from the SPX late last week making a lower high and then continued its decline today. Bitcoin peaked at 24300 last Wednesday and gave us a heads up of the SPX correction on Friday. Crude oil bounced to $98 overnight and may be setting up for a rally into the 7/28 New Moon. Gold struggled to close above key support at $1720– gold could still make an undercut low of $1678 which would be a buy signal post-Fed. The USD is working on an EW a-b-c correction with a symmetry target around 104.3. The Euro has made an important low and appears to be rallying impulsively. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX held up into the 7/21-7/22 and made a high at 4012 early Friday – just a 3-wave pullback into the Fed Wednesday could give us a post-Fed rally extension. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold struggled to hold $1720 today as gold does its typical correction into Fed Wednesday. The GDX underperformed again led by NEM. There is a chance that gold could undercut $1678 after the Fed minutes on Wednesday, and this could give us a short-term buy signal in gold.

• Stocks – The SPX appears to be making a simple a-b-c correction into Fed Wednesday – this would be bullish for a post-Fed rally extension.
• Gold – Gold struggled to close above $1720 today – if gold undercuts $1678 after the Fed minutes on Wednesday, that would be a short-term buy signal.
• Silver – Silver gave us a 3-wave rally from early Thursday and could test $18.12 after the Fed.
• Bonds – Bonds held up nicely today and have a seasonal tendency to bounce into the Fed minutes.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil rallied to test $98 overnight Monday - we could see a spike higher into the 7/28 New Moon.
• Dollar Index – The USD has a symmetry correction target that could take us to 104.3. The Euro has made a major low.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/27-7/28 which includes the 7/27 Fed day and the 7/28 New Moon.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - July 24, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX rallied to 4012 early Friday before starting a correction. The SPX declined in 5-waves on the 5-min chart Friday – just a 3-wave decline that holds SPX 3929 (previous 4^th wave) should be bullish for more gains into the 7/28 New Moon. Our turn window on 7/21 was based on the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 6/17 low which is important to determine trend in the SPX. Our solar-lunar tables may be hinting at a trending move here in the NDX and that most likely would be down. Crude oil gave us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart and appears to be rolling over here. Bitcoin also appears to be rolling over here and that is a negative bias for the SPX early Monday. Gold tested $1736 on Friday and then started rolling over – many gold advisors have turn bullish here. The USD made lows for the weak on Friday as the Euro rebounded.

7/24/22 (Commentary fo Sunday) The SPX came close to filling the gap from 6/9 at 4015 and reversed down in an EW 5-waves on the 5-min chart. The SPX reversed down on the 7/21-7/22 turn window and the nature of this correction will tell us a lot early this week. The 6/17 low at SPX 3636 was an intermediate cycle low and the 34-day Fibonacci step out from that low will “test the strength” of this rally leg. Just a quick 3-wave SPX correction down into early next week could set the market up for another rally leg after the Fed minutes on 7/27. However, if we get an EW 5-waves down from Friday’s early high this will be a SELL SIGNAL. Typically, both the SPX and gold correct into Fed Wednesday. Bitcoin diverged from the SPX making a lower high. Bitcoin peaked at 24300 last Wednesday and gave us a heads up of the SPX correction on Friday. Crude oil made lows for the week on Friday at $94.19 and appears to be rolling over. Gold tested key support at $1675 and then bounced $60 while the gold stocks underperformed – gold could still make an undercut low of $1678 for a trading signal next week. The USD is working on an EW a-b-c correction with a symmetry target around 104.3 and this giving gold and silver a bounce. The Euro has made an important low. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX held up into the 7/21-7/22 and made a high at 4012 early Friday – just a 3-wave pullback into the Fed Wednesday could give us a post-Fed rally extension. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested $1675 support today and spiked up $60. The GDX underperformed. There is a chance that gold could undercut $1678 after the Fed minutes on wednesday and this could give us a short-term buy signal in gold.

• Stocks – The SPX made a partial gap-fill at 4012 from 6/9 and then started a correction – just a 3-wave correction into Fed Wednesday would be bullish for a rally extension.
• Gold – Gold tested $1678 and bounced $60 – if gold undercuts $1678 after the Fed minutes on Wednesday, that would be a short-term buy signal.
• Silver – Silver gave us a 3-wave rally from early Thursday and could test $18.12 after the Fed.
• Bonds – Bonds tested their R2 pivot at143 on Friday and started to correct sideways – bonds have a seasonal tendency to bounce into the Fed minutes.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil may be rolling over here but we could see a spike higher into the 7/28 New Moon.
• Dollar Index – The USD fell in 5-waves from 109.26 to 106.41 into Tuesday and then a weak sideways bounce which rolled over to make weekly lows on Friday. A symmetry correction for the USD could take us to 104.3. The Euro has made a major low.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/27-7/28 which includes the 7/27 Fed day and the 7/28 New Moon.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 21, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX got to 3999.29 late on today’s session but Bitcoin diverged to a lower high. Today’s turn window is based on the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 6/17 low which is important to determine trend in the SPX. Just a 3-wave corrective pullback from this turn window would be bullish for further rally above 4000. Our solar-lunar tables may be hinting at a trending move here in the NDX and that most likely would be down. Crude oil pulled back hard today and appears to be reversing lower after just a 3-wave rally from the Full Moon. Gold tested $1675 and then bounced $40, however, the GDX underperformed the yellow metal. After an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart, the USD only got a weak bounce which is bearish.

7/21/22 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX got to 3999 late in the 7/21 turn window as market internals continue to improve. The SPX clearly rallied into the 34-day Fibonacci step out from 6/17 on 7/20-7/21 and we expect a correction. The nature of the correction will enlighten us – just a 3-wave correction will suggest a move above SPX 4000. Bitcoin diverged from the SPX making a lower high. Bitcoin pulled back in 5-waves overnight Wednesday and that could be predicting weakness for the SPX early Friday. Crude oil rolled over today and may be heading down impulsively. Gold tested $1675 and then bounced $40 while the gold stocks underperformed. The USD declined in 5-waves from its 109.26 high last week and only gave us a weak bounce which is bearish. The Euro has made an important low. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX continued to hold up into the 7/21 turn window and only a 3-wave correction tomorrow would keep us bullish for higher highs above 4000. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested $1675 support today and spiked up $40. The GDX underperformed.

• Stocks – The SPX got to 3999 near the close today. Just a 3-wave correction in the SPX tomorrow argues for higher highs into next week’s New Moon.
• Gold – Gold couldn’t hold $1720 and tested $1675 today before bouncing $40.
• Silver – Silver is trending sideways here and holding above $18.51.
• Bonds – Bonds rallied on Thursday and tested 141’03 overnight.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil may be rolling over here.
• Dollar Index – The USD fell in 5-waves from 109.26 to 106.41 and just gave us a weak bounce which is bearish. The Euro has made a major low.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/21, the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 6/17 low.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 20, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX continues to grind higher into the 7/21 turn window from the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 6/17 low. The SPX appears to be sub-dividing higher in a bullish way and tested 4000 today. Just a 3-wave corrective pullback from this turn window would be bullish for a test above 4000. Our solar-lunar tables predicted big volatility again on Wednesday and we got that. Bitcoin continued to trend higher and tested 24300 before reversing down. Crude oil appears to want to sub-divide higher. Gold is treading sideways just above important support at $1700. Gold is falling to test $1687 overnight – a test of $1675 could be close at hand. Failing to recover key support at $1720 put gold in a weak technical position. After an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart, the USD only got a weak bounce which is bearish.

7/20/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX continued to grind upward into the 7/21 turn window as market internals continue to improve. The SPX is clearly rallying into the 34-day Fibonacci step out from 6/17 on 7/20-7/21 and we expect a correction. The nature of the correction will enlighten us – just a 3-wave correction will suggest a test above SPX 4000. Once again Bitcoin led the market higher today and tested its R1 resistance pivot at 24300. Bitcoin pulled back in 5-waves overnight Wednesday and that could be predicting weakness for the SPX early Thursday. Crude oil traded sideways today and may be trying to sub-divide higher above $101. Gold fell overnight Wednesday to test $1687 – a test of $1675 may have started. The USD declined in 5-waves from its 109.26 high last week and only gave us a weak bounce which is bearish. The Euro has made an important low. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX rallied back from Monday’s decline and should hold up into the 7/20-7/21 turn window before a correction. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold is still finding resistance at $1720 and testing $1700 support. A washout to test $1675 is likely soon.

• Stocks – The SPX continues to grind higher toward 4000 as we approach the 7/21 turn window. Just a 3-wave correction would be bullish.
• Gold – Gold couldn’t hold $1720 and is now testing $1675.
• Silver – Silver is trending sideways here and holding above $18.51.
• Bonds – Bonds continue to move sideways here as the US 10-yr note hangs near 3%.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil continues to sub-divide higher and its 3-wave rally from last week’s Full Moon may have more to go.
• Dollar Index – The USD fell in 5-waves from 109.26 to 106.41 and just gave us a weak bounce which is bearish. The Euro has made a major low.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/21, the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 6/17 low.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 19, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us a trend up day as we approach the important 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 6/17 low on 7/21. Yesterday’s 4^th wave correction made us tentative, but today’s rally clearly traced out an EW 5-waves up from last week – the SPX is rallying into the key 7/20-7/21 turn window. Just a 3-wave corrective pullback from this turn window would be bullish for a test of 4000. Our solar-lunar tables predicted big volatility again on Tuesday and we got a 3.1% rally in the NDX. Bitcoin once again led the way and tested its R2 pivot at 23725, a multi-week high. After testing 90.56 on Thursday’s Full Moon Timing Window, crude oil may be just ending a 3-wave upside correction as it tested $101 today – that is bearish. Gold is treading sideways just above important support at $1700. Gold tested $1695 on the 7/13-7/14 Full Moon Timing Window but only gave us a shallow 3-wave bounce into Monday which was bearish. On Tuesday, gold could only test important resistance at $1720 before rolling over. The USD gave us an EW 5-waves down from 109.29 on the hourly chart and that is a SELL SIGNAL – the Euro appears to have made a major low.

7/19/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) Tuesday followed the predicted solar-lunar volatility by rallying to exceed Monday’s high in an impulsive manner. The SPX is clearly rallying into the 34-day Fibonacci step out from 6/17 on 7/20-7/21 and we expect a correction. The nature of the correction will enlighten us – just a 3-wave correction will suggest a test of SPX 4000. Once again Bitcoin led the market higher today and tested its R2 resistance pivot at 23725. Bitcoin continues to hold up overnight and that bodes well for the SPX early on Wednesday. Crude oil tested $101, but the rally pattern from the Full Moon low at $90.56 on 7/14 still looks just 3-wave corrective. Gold only gave us a shallow 3-wave bounce from its Full Moon low last week and still is unable to get above $1720 – still looks bearish. The USD declined in 5-waves from its 109.26 high last week and that is a SELL SIGNAL – the Euro has made an important low. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX rallied back from Monday’s decline and should hold up into the 7/20-7/21 turn window before a correction. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold is still finding resistance at $1720 and testing $1700 support. A washout to test $1675 is likely soon.

• Stocks – We were faked out – yesterday’s decline was just the 4^th wave of a larger impulse pattern. However, the SPX is now rallying into the 7/20-7/21 turn window and we are expecting some kind of pullback.
• Gold – Gold is still finding resistance at $1720 and testing $1700 support which looks weak.
• Silver – Silver is trending sideways here and could be tracing out a 4^th wave.
• Bonds – Bonds continue to correct as the 10-yr US rate holds above 3%.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil rallied in 3-waves from its Full Moon low and tested $101 Tuesday.
• Dollar Index – The USD fell in 5-waves from 109.26 to 106.41 during early Tuesday – this is a sell signal. The Euro has made a major low.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/21, the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 6/17 low.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - July 18, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us an EW 5-waves up on the gap-up open and may have finished a 3-wave upside correction from after the CPI report last Wednesday. Our solar-lunar tables predicted big volatility on Monday for the NDX and that came true after APPL announced that it was cutting back on its expenses for Q3. The hourly SPX turn window that was due last Friday at Noon EDT came in a half trading later this morning and left a lot of ugly candlesticks on tech stocks in the wake of AAPL’s news. Bitcoin made multi-week highs at 22785 before reversing down with the market. After testing 90.56 on Thursday’s Full Moon Timing Window, crude oil may be just giving us just a 3-wave upside correction as it tested $100 today – that is bearish.  Gold tested $1695 on the 7/13-7/14 Full Moon Timing Window but only gave us a shallow 3-wave bounce today to test its R2 resistance pivot at $1723 before reversing down hard. The USD spiked to 109.29 on Thursday and then pulled back in an EW a-b-c correction on Monday to test its S1 support pivot at 106.9 before bouncing.

7/18/22 (Commentary for Monday) Monday followed the predicted solar-lunar volatility for today by giving us more blowoff from Friday in a gap-up open followed by a reversal down in tech stocks that looked terrible on the charts. It appears that the hourly turn window that was due at Noon EDT last Friday came in a half trading day late into this morning. After reaching multi-week highs of 22785, Bitcoin reversed sharply down with the market. Crude oil had a big day and tested $100 but the rally pattern from the Full Moon low at $90.56 on 7/14 looked just 3-wave corrective. Gold only gave us a shallow 3-wave bounce from its Full Moon low last week and tested $1723 before reversing down. The USD made a new high of 109.29 on Thursday but then declined in an EW a-b-c correction into Monday that tested 106.9 before getting a bounce. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Today’s price action has tilted us to the bear side and we are looking for a pullback into the 7/21 turn window. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold spiked above $1720 but could not close there and ended the day testing $1700 again. A washout to test $1675 this week is likely.

• Stocks – The gap-up open tested a SPX downtrend line and turned the market down in the first hour. Our solar-lunar cycle for Monday predicted extreme volatility which we got. We favor the bear case here which calls for a move down into 7/21.
• Gold – Once again gold spiked above $1720 but could not close there. A move down to test $1675 is likely today.
• Silver – Silver tested $18 on Thursday’s Full Moon Timing Window but its bounce into the weekend looked corrective – we are now looking for a retest of $18 later this week.
• Bonds – Bonds fell back today and the 10-yr US rate got a bounce.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil rallied in 3-waves from its Full Moon low and is testing $100 overnight.
• Dollar Index – The USD made a high of 109.26 on Thursday before an EW a-b-c correction that pulled us back to 106.90 during Monday’s session.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 7/21, the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 6/17 low.