All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 15, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The 75-point basis rate hike idea floated in Tuesday’s session came to pass in today’s Fed minutes and the stock market was so heartened with Chairman Powell’s resolve to fight inflation that the SPX broke its 5-day losing streak and finished with an up day. Our TRIN-5 indicator remains at 9.62 – and this highly oversold level could still lead to more downside on Thursday. The Option Premium Ratio ramped from 1.90 to 3.29 today and that argues for some weakness early Thursday. However, there is a chance for more SPX rally extension early Thursday since Bitcoin is extending its rally to its R1 resistance pivot at 22653 overnight Wednesday. We have experienced tremendous volatility this week from the following five factors: the 6/13-6/15 Full Moon Timing Window, the 6/14 monthly VIX expiration, multiple astro-finance aspects, the 6/15 Fed day and the 6/17 quad-witching expiration – so traders need to buckle up. The bonds bounced correctively on Wednesday and appear to be rolling over. Crude oil continues to correct after the exact Full Moon and is testing 113.47 overnight – the XLE is rolling over. Gold bounced in an EW a-b-c pattern and tested $1845 overnight. The USD powered to another 20-yr high at 105.79.

6/15/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) The 75-basis point Fed rate hike rumor came to pass today and the SPX rallied into the close. Was today just an oversold bounce or did we make a trading low? The SPY gave us a Positive Volume Reversal Day today and that could extend the rally. How we trade early Thursday will tell us. The day after a monthly VIX expiration gave us another big range day today and we ended positive after five consecutive losing days for the SPX. We still expect major volatility going into the weekend from five sources: the 6/13-6/15 Full Moon Timing Window, the 6/14 monthly VIX expiration, multiple astro-finance aspects, the 6/15 Fed Day and the 6/17 quad-witching expiration. Our TRIN-5 indicator came in at 9.62 which is still conducive to more market meltdown post-Fed. Bitcoin is extending its rally overnight Wednesday and that gives the SPX a positive bias for early Thursday. Crude oil continues to decline after the Full Moon and tested $113.47 overnight Wednesday and the XLE continues to correct. Gold bounced in an EW a-b-c pattern and is testing $1845 overnight. The USD tested 105.79, another 20-yr high, and then declined sharply . Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Monday’s SPX action confirmed that the first leg down in the 2022 Bear Market is still ongoing. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low hits and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold made an intermediate cycle low at $1785 on 5/16 and then bounced to $1882.5 on Friday after the CPI report. Gold tested $1806 late Tuesday and may have made an important low.  

• Stocks – The SPX liked the Fed decision for a 75-basis point rate hike today and we closed positive after five consecutive declining sessions. The Option Premium Ratio soared from 1.90 to 3.29 as the bears reloaded and that could pressure the market down early Thursday.
• Gold – Gold rallied in an EW a-b-c bounce and tested $1845 . Gold declined in an EW 5-wave down from Friday’s high at $1882.5 and may have bottomed at $1806.
• Silver – Silver rallied as high as $21.82 after the Fed rate hike.
• Bonds – Bonds bounced in a 3-wave corrective structure.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $113.47 as it continues to roll over after the Full Moon.
• Dollar Index – The USD tested 105.79 on Wednesday – a 20-yr high.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/13-6/14.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 14, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The PPI came in a little tamer than expected but the SPX still couldn’t mount any convincing rallies intraday. Our TRIN-5 indicator came in at 9.86 – the highest in our database – and this highly oversold level could lead to more down tomorrow if the Fed minutes and press conference continue to track hawkish. A rumor of a 75-basis point Fed rate hike hit the market today and kept it under pressure throughout the session.  We are expecting tremendous volatility this week from the following five factors: the 6/13-6/15 Full Moon Timing Window, the 6/14 monthly VIX expiration, multiple astro-finance aspects, the 6/15 Fed day and the 6/17 quad-witching expiration – so traders need to buckle up. The bonds continue to lead stocks down and hit 131’03 which took the 10-yr US rate to 3.48% - another multi-year high. Crude oil hit $123.68 near the exact Full Moon   and then dropped a quick $7 to 116.62 – the XLE may be rolling over here. Gold tested $1807 late Tuesday as we head into Fed Wednesday – gold has a tendency to pull back into a Fed day. The USD powered to another 20-yr high at 105.

6/14/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) Rumors of a 75-basis point Fed rate hike held the SPX down today without much upside volatility. All the major stock indices made lower lows on today’s Full Moon as we approach tomorrow’s Fed Day. However, the monthly VIX option expiration occurred today and the day following has given us intense volatility every month of the year so far. In fact, we expect major volatility into the weekend from five sources: the 6/13-6/15 Full Moon Timing Window, the 6/14 monthly VIX expiration, multiple astro-finance aspects, the 6/15 Fed Day and the 6/17 quad-witching expiration. Our TRIN-5 indicator came in at 9.86 which is conducive to more market meltdown post-Fed. Bitcoin is rolling over and testing its S1 pivot support at 20750 and that is a negative bias for the SPX early Wednesday. Crude oil gave us a 3-wave spike up to $123.68 near the exact Full Moon before reversing down sharply to test $116.62 - the monthly trend in US crude oil inventories in 2022 is falling far under the average trend from 2009-2021 which is bullish for prices. Gold gave us an EW 5-waves down from $1882.5 on Friday’s close and tested $1806 before rebounding – did gold make an important low? The USD is testing 20-yr highs at 105.65 overnight Tuesday. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Monday’s SPX action confirmed that the first leg down in the 2022 Bear Market is still ongoing. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low hits and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold made an intermediate cycle low at $1785 on 5/16 and then bounced to $1882.5 on Friday after the CPI report. Gold tested $1806 late Tuesday and may have made an important low.  

• Stocks – The SPX made lower lows Tuesday on a weak tape with a very oversold TRIN-5 at 9.86 which could mean more washout after the Fed minutes and press conference Wednesday afternoon.
• Gold – Gold came down hard on Tuesday with the nominal 10-yr US rate going to multi-year highs at 3.48% and the USD going to 20-yr highs. Gold declined in an EW 5-wave down from Friday’s high at $1882.5 and may have bottomed at $1806.
• Silver – Silver may have finished an EW a-b-c correction at $20.85 and is reversing up on Fed Day.
• Bonds – Bonds plunged to 131’03 on the close Tuesday and may be close to 5-waves down on the hourly chart.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil gave us a 3-wave spike to $123.68 near the exact Full Moon before falling sharply to $116.62.
• Dollar Index – The USD tested 105.65 on Tuesday – a 20-yr high.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/13-6/14.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 13, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  A meltdown in Bitcoin and plunging bond prices gave the SPX a gap-down open and we ended up closing near the lows for the day at 3755. Our TRIN-5 indicator came in at 9.75 – higher than the Covid low on 3/23/20 – and this highly oversold level could lead to more down tomorrow if the PPI report comes in as hot as the CPI report on Friday.  The bonds came down once again and the 10-yr US rate made it to 3.37% which is a multi-year high. Crude oil entered the Full Moon Timing Window today and undercut Friday’s low to $117.52 before spiking higher to $122.23 but the XLE corrected hard. After Friday’s strong close at $1882.5, gold plunged to $1809.2 into overnight Monday as the USD spiked to a 20-yr high at 105.28.

6/13/22 (Commentary for Monday) Our bias since 5/20 was that the SPX 3810 low was a Wave B down low and that it would be taken out after the “bear market bounce” ran its course – which was the SPX 4177 high on 6/2. The strong sell off from Monday’s open consisted of sell programs in stocks and bonds and 3810 was taken out quickly into the 6/13-6/14 Full Moon Timing Window. However, we got a very oversold TRIN-5 reading of 9.75 Monday, a multi-year high, and if the PPI report comes in hot early Tuesday, the stock washout could continue. If the PPI inflation report comes in lighter than expected, that could help form a short-term low for the SPX. Crude oil took out Friday’s low and tested $117.4 on Monday’s Full Moon Timing Window before reversing up sharply to tag $122.37 - the monthly trend in US crude oil inventories in 2022 is falling far under the average trend from 2009-2021 which is bullish for prices. Bitcoin is giving us a mini-crash to 20775 overnight Monday and that is a bearish bias for the SPX early Tuesday. Gold plunged to $1809 overnight Monday before bouncing but a test of $1800 into early Tuesday looks likely. The USD is testing 20-yr highs at 105.28 overnight Monday. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Monday’s SPX action confirmed that the first leg down in the 2022 Bear Market is still ongoing. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low hits and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold made an intermediate cycle low at $1785 on 5/16 and then bounced to $1882.5 on Friday after the CPI report. The price action on Monday argues for a retest of $1800 on Tuesday.  

• Stocks – The SPX declined 150+ points on Monday and ended the day with a very oversold TRIN-5 at 9.75 which could mean more washout on Tuesday if the PPI inflation report doesn’t come in cooler than expectations.
• Gold – Gold came down hard on Monday with the nominal 10-yr US rate going to multi-year highs at 3.37% and the USD going to 20-yr highs. Gold declined on Friday to test $1827 before rebounding to $1882 on Friday’s close.
• Silver – Silver tested its S2 pivot support at $20.90 on Monday but an undercut low is possible on Tuesday.
• Bonds – Bonds plunged to 131’19 on the close Monday and may be close to 5-waves down on the hourly chart.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is holding up into the Full Moon Timing Window.
• Dollar Index – The USD tested 105.28 on Monday – a 20-yr high.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/13-6/14.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - June 12, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The stock market did not get its “peak inflation wish” in the CPI report and the strongest YoY inflation print in over 40 years hit the stock market hard on Friday and the E-mini is trying to test its 5/20 lows overnight Sunday. Our bias was that the SPX 3810 low was just a B-Wave low and should be taken out early this week. A divergent undercut of SPX 3810 could set up a “double bottom” pattern. Bitcoin is also plunging to multi-week lows overnight Sunday below 26000. The PPI report early Tuesday could help the market put in a low if it comes in lighter than expected. Crude oil is pulling back overnight Sunday to test its S1 pivot at $118.28. Bonds did make the low of the week at 135’05 on Friday and could have seen 5-waves down on the hourly chart. Gold initially plunger to $1827 after the hot CPI report but ended up closing the week at $1882.5.

6/12/22 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX dropped another 100+ SPX points on Friday after the hottest YoY print in CPI inflation in over 40+ years. The E-mini is testing its 5/20 low overnight Sunday and we could see a divergent low below SPX 3810 on Monday/Tuesday. If the PPI inflation report comes in lighter than expected early Tuesday, that could help form a double bottom in the low 3800s. Many global markets peaked near the 3-star critical reversal date on 5/31 and the SPX made its high at 4177 on 6/2. Crude oil is pulling back to test its S1 support pivot at $118.28 overnight Sunday - the monthly trend in US crude oil inventories in 2022 is falling far under the average trend from 2009-2021 which is bullish for prices. Bitcoin is testing 25000 overnight Sunday and that is a bearish bias for the SPX early Monday. Gold plunged to $1827 after the CPI report early Friday but rebounded fiercely into the close to tag $1882.5. The USD is testing multi-week highs at 104.6 overnight Sunday. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – It appears that the SPX low of 3810 on 5/20 could get undercut on Monday/Tuesday. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low hits and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold made an intermediate cycle low at $1785 on 5/16 and then bounced to $1882.5 on Friday after the CPI report. The 5-wave down and 3-wave bounce move on the gold hourly last week argues for a retest of $1800.  

• Stocks – On the hottest CPI YoY report in 40 years, the SPX declined another 100+SPX points on Friday. We could see a double bottom low on 6/13-6/14.
• Gold – Gold gave us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly into Monday and then a 3-wave bounce on Wednesday which was bearish. Gold declined on Friday to test $1827 before rebounding to $1882 on Friday's close.
• Silver – Silver is testing $21.50 overnight Sunday.
• Bonds – Bonds tested lows Friday at 135’05 and may be set up to rally after 5-waves down on the hourly chart.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil spiked a 5^th wave higher to $123.18 on Wednesday and then pulled back to test its S1 pivot support at $118.43 overnight Sunday.
• Dollar Index – The USD is testing 104.58 overnight Sunday  – a multi-week high.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/13-6/14.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 9, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX got sold hard today going into the CPI report early Friday but the $TRIN closed at 2.28 which statistically makes it very likely that Friday will be a rally day. The stock market is dying for a CPI YoY number that is less than the consensus and the SPX may have set itself up for a rally day tomorrow. The AAII sentiment report on 6/9 showed an increase in bearish sentiment from 37.1% to 46.7% and also argues for a rally day on Friday. Crude oil pulled back today to test its S1 pivot at $120.45. Bonds did make the low of the week at 136’07 and could have seen 5-waves down on the hourly chart. After yesterday’s bearish setup, gold declined to $1841 but did not make lows for the week.

6/09/22 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX dropped near 100 points today as sentiment grew negative into the close. However, the $TRIN spiked to 2.28 which statistically argues for a rally tomorrow. The SPX can be viewed as tracing out waves 1 to 3 of a C-Wave up from 3810 into 4177 late 6/2 and is now tracing out a 4^th wave consolidation into the key CPI inflation report on Friday. With that viewpoint, we are looking for a 5^th wave thrust after the CPI report that could be reversed down later in the day. Crude oil pulled back to test $120 on Thursday - the monthly trend in US crude oil inventories in 2022 is falling far under the average trend from 2009-2021 which is bullish. Bitcoin is spiking to test 31000 overnight Thursday and may be trying to break higher out of the triangle pattern this week. Gold continued lower after its bearish setup yesterday. The USD is testing highs for the week at 103.3 overnight Thursday. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We may have seen the end of the first leg down in the 2022-2023 Bear Market on 5/20 but that hasn’t been confirmed yet. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low hits and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold may have seen an intermediate cycle low at $1785 on 5/16 and then bounced to $1878.6 on 6/2. The 5-wave down and 3-wave bounce move on the gold hourly argues for a retest of $1800.  

• Stocks – After dropping nearly 100 SPX points today and closing with a $TRIN of 2.28, the SPX is statistically set up to rally after the CPI report on Friday.
• Gold – Gold gave us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly into Monday and then a 3-wave bounce on Wednesday which is bearish. Gold declined on Thursday to test $1842.
• Silver – Silver fell to test its S2 pivot support at $21.56 before bouncing.
• Bonds – Bonds tested lows today at 136’07 and may be set up to rally after 5-waves down on the hourly chart.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil spiked a 5^th wave higher to $123.18 on Wednesday and then pulled back to test its S! pivot support at $120.70.
• Dollar Index – The USD tested 103.23 Thursday – its high for the week.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/10.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 8, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX continues its volatile, sideways consolidation into early Friday’s CPI report. This sideways consolidation from last week is most likely a 4^th wave of C correction off the 5/20 low which appears to be a “Running B-Wave low” to us. The market is hoping for a sign of a weaker YoY CPI number and if it gets one, we could see a 5^th wave higher off the 5/20 low that could test 4200 and finish a “Running B-Wave correction” from the 5/12 low. Our bias is still that the SPX will stay in its trading range until the CPI report is released early Friday and then the market will spike higher to test E-mini 4210-4230 before coming back before the market opens. With the 3-star critical reversal day falling on 5/31 for the SPX, the 4177 high near the close on 6/2 appears to have been the important SPX high in our work – a post CPI rally may only give the E-mini a 5^th wave spike higher. The AAII sentiment report on 6/2 showed an increase in bullish sentiment consistent with a topping “bear market rally” as more bears jumped aboard the rally – trading should remain in a volatile trading range going into Friday. Crude oil broke out above $121 today as the latest US crude oil inventories are coming in much lower than the average summer trends in years 2009-2021. After yesterday’s 3-wave bounce, bonds look determined to test lows again and mark the US 10-yr rate above 3.1%. Gold gave us a 5-wave decline on the hourly followed by the 3-wave bounce yesterday – this looks bearish to us.

6/08/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) Our bias is that a “Running B-Wave” correction started on 5/12 and that the 5/20 low was a B-Wave low followed by a C-Wave rally that is now underway. The sideways action seen over the last week is the 4^th wave of the C-Wave and we could see the start of the 5^th wave higher after the CPI report early Friday where the market is hoping for a weaker YoY number than the consensus. The SPX can be viewed as tracing out waves 1 to 3 of a C-Wave up from 3810 into 4177 late 6/2 and is now tracing out a sideways 4^th wave consolidation into the key CPI inflation report on Friday. With that viewpoint, we are looking for a 5^th wave thrust after the CPI report that could be reversed down later in the day. The 3-star critical reversal day for the SPX was due on 5/31 and may have landed on 6/2 after the short-covering rally into the close to 4177. Crude oil broke above $121 today and could move higher since the monthly trend in US crude oil inventories in 2022 is falling far under the average trend from 2009-2021. Bitcoin has oscillated around the 30000 level the last four trading days. Gold has printed 5-waves down on the hourly chart and just a 3-wave bounce which looks bearish. The USD pulled is coiling around 102.5 overnight Wednesday as the Yen continues to melt down. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We may have seen the end of the first leg down in the 2022-2023 Bear Market on 5/20 but that hasn’t been confirmed yet. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low hits and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold may have seen an intermediate cycle low at $1785 on 5/16 and then bounced to $1878.6 on 6/2. The 5-wave down and 3-wave bounce move on the gold hourly argues for a retest of $1800.  

• Stocks – In our EW count, the SPX has been giving us a “Running B-Wave correction” from 5/12 and the sideways action from last week is a 4^th wave of C higher – we could see the 5^th wave of C higher after the CPI report on Friday.
• Gold – Gold gave us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly and a 3-wave bounce which is bearish.
• Silver – Silver has been tracing out a sideways pattern the last four trading days heading into Friday’s CPI report.
• Bonds – Bonds just gave us a 3-wave bounce on Tuesday and is now rolling over to test lows.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil spiked a 5^th wave higher above $121 on Wednesday.
• Dollar Index – The USD is coiling around its Person’s Pivot at 102.5 overnight Wednesday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/10.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 7, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX gave us another volatile session, but the trading day set up well for traders that bought the early low and held into the close. Our bias is still that the SPX will stay in its trading range until the CPI report is released early Friday and then the market will stage a break higher or lower. With the 3-star critical reversal day falling on 5/31 for the SPX, the 4177 high near the close on 6/2 appears to have been an important high in our work. The AAII sentiment report on 6/2 showed an increase in bullish sentiment consistent with a topping “bear market rally” as more bears jumped aboard the rally – trading should remain in a volatile trading range going into Friday. Crude oil is doing a high-range consolidation near $121 and the XLE made a new high for the year – it was a great day-trading session for the oil stocks. Bonds bounced today as rates backed off a little. Gold bounced as rates backed up a little and the USD pulled back hard.

6/07/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) Our bias is that the SPX printed an EW 5-waves up from 3810 into 4177 late Thursday and is now tracing out a sideways consolidation into the key CPI inflation report on Friday. How the CPI inflation rate breaks out will generate a big move one way or another in the SPX. The 3-star critical reversal day for the SPX was due on 5/31 and may have landed on 6/2 after the short-covering rally into the close to 4177. Crude oil is giving us a bullish high-range consolidation and looks to make a 5^th wave higher soon. Bitcoin is dropping hard overnight to test its S1 pivot support at 29808. Gasoline futures gave us a 3-wave correction after making an all-time high at $4.33 overnight Sunday. Gold managed to climb to $1858 as the USD pulled back and the 10-yr US rate pulled back below 3.0%. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities – we also hold some FXY (Yen) shares.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We may have seen the end of the first leg down in the 2022-2023 Bear Market on 5/20 but that hasn’t been confirmed yet. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low hits and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold may have seen an intermediate cycle low at $1785 on 5/16 and then bounced to $1878.6 on 6/2. The 5-wave down move in gold is argues for a retest of $1800.  

• Stocks – The SPX peaked 5-waves up from the 3810 low at 4177 late Thursday and may have started a sideways consolidation that could last into Friday’s CPI report.
• Gold – Gold gave us an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart that tested $1840 and today we got a corrective bounce.
• Silver – Silver is pulling back correctively after testing $22.56 yesterday.
• Bonds – Bonds bounced today and the 10-yr rate pulled back below 3.0%.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is coiling for a 5^th wave leg higher above $121.
• Dollar Index – The USD tested 102.84 before its pullback.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/6-6/7.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 6, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  Another volatile day for the SPX and once again early strength got sold. The market is triangulating going into Friday’s CPI inflation report which should give us a big move one way or another. With the 3-star critical reversal day falling on 5/31 for the SPX, the 4177 high near the close on Thursday appears to have been an important high. The SPX gave us an EW 5-waves up from the SPX 3810 low on 5/20 into the 6/2 high at 4177. In the short-term, we are looking for at least a 3-wave correction now from SPX 4177 but the hourly pattern is triangulating. The AAII sentiment report on Thursday showed an increase in bullish sentiment consistent with a topping “bear market rally” as more bears jumped aboard the rally – trading will be volatile going into Friday. Crude oil looks poised to make a 5^th wave higher above $121. Bonds continued to sub-divide down and test 136’12 as the 10-yr US rate made it above 3.0% again. Rising nominal US rates also pressured gold down to $1839.7. The USD bounced to 102.65 after a strong decline in the Yen.  

6/06/22 (Commentary for Monday) Rising rates led the SPX down on Monday as the initial SPX rally got retraced and the 10-yr US rate got above 3.0% on Monday. Our bias is that the SPX printed an EW 5-waves up from 3810 into 4177 late Thursday and is now tracing out a triangle into the key CPI inflation report on Friday. How the CPI inflation rate breaks out will generate a big move one way or another in the SPX. The 3-star critical reversal day for the SPX was due on 5/31 and may have landed on 6/2 after the short-covering rally into the close to 4177. After just a 3-wave correction last week, crude oil rallied up to make new multi-week highs at $121 and looks to make a 5^th wave higher still. Bitcoin dropped hard overnight Monday to test 29000. Gasoline futures hit its high for the year at $4.32 overnight Sunday but then pulled back on Monday. Gold rolled over to test $1840 pressured by rising nominal US rates. After the 10-yr US rate rose above 3.0%, the USD bounced to test 102.65. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities – we also hold some FXY (Yen) shares.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We may have seen the end of the first leg down in the 2022-2023 Bear Market on 5/20 but that hasn’t been confirmed yet. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low hits and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold may have seen an intermediate cycle low at $1785 on 5/16 and then bounced to $1878.6 on Thursday– a 5-wave decline from late Thursday would argue for a test of $1800.  

• Stocks – The SPX peaked 5-waves up from the 3810 low at 4177 late Thursday and may have started a 3- wave correction that has more to go on Monday.
• Gold – Rising rates pressured gold down to test $1840. An EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart argues for another retest of $1800.
• Silver – Silver gave us a bullish “Rising B-Wave” that tested $22.56.
• Bonds – Bonds gave us another undercut low at 136’07 as the 10-yr US rate again rose above 3.0%.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is poised for a 5^th wave leg higher above $121.
• Dollar Index – The USD bounced on Monday to test 102.65 but the action still looks corrective.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/6-6/7.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - June 5, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX blow off to 4177 late Thursday was the high for the week and the pullback on Friday went deeper than we expected. Friday’s NFP report came in stronger than expected and the most market reaction, to us, was in the continued sell off in bonds and rise in rates. With the 3-star critical reversal day falling on 5/31 for the SPX, the 4177 high near the close on Thursday appears to have been an important high – 5-waves up from the SPX 3810 low on 5/20. In the short-term, we are looking for at least a 3-wave correction now from SPX 4177. The AAII sentiment report on Thursday showed an increase in bullish sentiment consistent with a topping “bear market rally” as more bears jumped aboard the rally. After a 3-wave move down into early Thursday, crude oil is test new rally highs at $121 Sunday evening. Bonds reacted to the strong NFP report with another undercut low and the 10-yr US rate looks to test 3.0% soon. Rising nominal US rates also pressured gold on Friday. The USD bounced to 102.25 after the strong NFP jobs report and was supported by a decline in the Yen.  

6/05/22 (Commentary for Sunday) The bond market reacted negatively to the NFP jobs report and made an undercut low to the S1 pivot at 137’18 and the 10-yr US rate should now test 3.0% on Monday. Our bias is that the SPX printed an EW 5-waves up from 3810 into 4177 late Thursday and has now started an EW a-b-c correction that should continue down into Monday in a Wave C with a symmetry target of 4060. The 3-star critical reversal day for the SPX was due on 5/31 and may have landed on 6/2 after the short-covering rally into the close. After just a 3-wave correction last week, crude oil rallied up to make new multi-week highs at $121. Bitcoin is rallying up to test R2 resistance at 31265 overnight Sunday but the correlation with the NDX has not been as strong in the last week or so.  3-wave correction into early Thursday, so another test of the $120 high is possible. Gasoline futures hit its high for the year at $4.32 overnight Sunday. Gold rolled over after the strong NFP jobs report pressured by rising nominal US rates – gold tested its Person’s pivot at $1860 overnight Sunday. After the stronger than expected NFP jobs report, the USD bounced to test 102.25. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities – we also hold some FXY (Yen) shares.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We may have seen the end of the first leg down in the 2022-2023 Bear Market on 5/20 but that hasn’t been confirmed yet. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low hits and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold may have seen an intermediate cycle low at $1785 on 5/16 and then bounced to $1878.6 on Thursday– a 5-wave decline from late Thursday would argue for a test of $1800.  

• Stocks – The SPX peaked 5-waves up from the 3810 low at 4177 late Thursday and may have started a 3- wave correction that has more to go on Monday.
• Gold – Gold rallied to test $1878.6 overnight Thursday – 5-waves down on the hourly chart argues for another retest of $1800.
• Silver – Silver is holding up overnight Sunday at $22.30.
• Bonds – Bonds gave us an undercut low at 137’18 after the strong NFP jobs report and then just a corrective bounce – the 10-yr US rate could be testing 3.0% early Monday.
• Crude Oil – After just a 3-wave correction after last week’s New Moon, crude oil rallied to test multi-week highs at $121 overnight Sunday.
• Dollar Index – The USD bounced on Friday to test 102.25  but the action looked corrective.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/6-6/7.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 2, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  Once again the SPX showed some impressive intra-day volatility. Our bias for the week is that the “bear market rally” from 5/20 would correct into the NFP jobs report early Friday and then make a high into the 6/3-6/6 turn window. The SPX pullback into Wednesday did look corrective to us and we are looking for highs for the week on Friday/Monday and then a correction. Our thinking Wednesday was that the rally from 5/20 is a “bear market rally” and the corrective action so far this week could extend this rally into next week. The AAII sentiment report today showed an increase in bullish sentiment consistent with a topping “bear market rally” as more bears jump aboard the rally. Crude oil only gave us a 3-wave correction so far and could make another test of $120. Gold bounced to test $1878.6 overnight but typically pulls back into the NFP jobs report. The USD bounced to 102.7 and may have finished an EW a-b-c upside correction.  

6/02/22 (Commentary for Thursday) The AAII sentiment report today shows that bullish sentiment has picked up over the last week as a short-covering rally has driven the SPX to highs of the week at 4175. The market bears tried to short the SPX in the last hour of trading and got run over as the SPX spiked into the close with a NYSE market breadth of >+2000. We view the market rally from 5/20 as another “bear market rally” but it could extend its rally into early next week. The CORRECTIVE PULLBACK in the SPX so into Wednesday argues for a higher target in this “bear market rally” to 4200-4300 by 6/3-6/6. Crude oil only gave us a 3-wave correction into early Thursday, so another test of the $120 high is possible. Gasoline futures hit its high for the year at $4.27 – if prices can continue higher into next week it could be a long summer for US drivers. Gold tested $1830 early Tuesday and then bounced hard overnight Thursday to test $1878 – a pullback into the NFP report early Friday would be typical. The USD gave us a strong down day which tested 101.7 – the Euro gave us an impulsive looking rally. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities – we also hold some FXY (Yen) shares.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We may have seen the end of the first leg down in the 2022-2023 Bear Market on 5/20 but that hasn’t been confirmed yet. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low hits and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold may have seen an intermediate cycle low at $1785 on 5/16 and if gold pulls back to a higher low this week above $1785 that could be bullish.  

• Stocks – Despite some bearish inflation numbers and more hawkish talk from Leal Brainard the SPX managed to rally into the close -  we are looking for a short-term SPX high on 6/3-6/6.
• Gold – Gold pulled back to test $1830 early Wednesday and then rallied to test $1878.6 overnight Thursday – our EW count has gold close to finishing an EW a-b-c bounce.
• Silver – Silver rallied to multi-week highs today at $22.52.
• Bonds – Bonds may have finished a 3-wave correction early Thursday and could bounce on a weaker than expected NFP report.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil only gave us a 3-wave correction after Monday’s New Moon and another test of $120 is possible.
• Dollar Index – The USD fell to test 101.7 as the Euro rallied impulsively.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/3 which is includes the NFP jobs report.