All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 30, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX gave us a gap-down open after the PCE inflation report and then rallied back to fill the opening gap. Still, we are at a do-or-die time in the market – breaking 3827.67 would start a washout into 7/5 next week. How we trade going into the holiday weekend tomorrow is key – the PMI and ISM reports early Friday could be a catalyst. The PCE report came in stronger than anticipated and the SPX did close lower for the day. Crude oil spiked into the 6/28-6/29 New Moon Timing Window, tested $114, and then reversed down today. Crude oil tested and that is bearish. Our TRIN-5 indicator became increasingly oversold at 7.47 and this could be a sign that the SPX could wash out into 7/5. Bitcoin broke through 20000 support and tested 18500 before rebounding. Gold made lows for the week by testing $1800 early Thursday in the New Moon Timing Window. The USD tested 105.54 Thursday and then gave us a sharp move down.

6/30/22 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX gave us a gap-down open again today and may be setting up for a wash out down into July 5. The ISM and PMI reports should provide an early catalyst for trading. Our TRIN-5 indicator continues very oversold at 7.48 and this could be arguing for a washout into 7/5 – it is possible that on 6/28, the 55-day Fibonacci step out from 5/4 gave us an important high at 3946 early Tuesday. We got a convincing break below Wednesday’s low at SPX 3798 today and that is bearish for lower prices into 7/20. Bitcoin broke through 20000 Thursday and rebounded after testing 18500. Crude oil continued its spike into Tuesday’s New Moon Timing Window and tested $114 on Wednesday before reversing down – we have viewed this week’s rally in crude oil as CORRECTIVE and are looking for lows below $101.53. Our bias remains that crude oil is in a C-Wave down from the B-Wave top at $123.57 on 6/14 and that it could test $87-$90. Gold continued lower in today’s New Moon Timing Window and tested $1800 overnight. The USD tested its R2 pivot resistance at 105.56 before reversing down sharply. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX took out 3798 and looks bearish for a possible washout into 7/5.  Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold stocks are underperforming gold here and that may relegate gold to a choppy sideways trading range in the near term. Weakly trending gold stocks may imply more weakness in the SPX.  

• Stocks – The SPX gapped down after the PCE inflation reports and managed to fill the opening gap but closed weak on Thursday’s close.
• Gold – Gold continued lower to test $1800 overnight Thursday as the USD roared back to test the 105.56 level before reversing down.
• Silver – Silver took out $20.00 overnight and looks weak.
• Bonds – Bonds continued higher today and tested 138’29 as the 10-yr US rate broke below 3.0%.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil spiked into today’s New Moon Timing Window and tested $114 before reversing down.
• Dollar Index – The USD broke out of its triangle to test its R2 pivot resistance at 105.67 before reversing down.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/27-6/28.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 29, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX has been working sideways since Tuesday’s early high at 3946 and hard reversal down to 3798.34 early Wednesday. The market appears to be waiting for the PCE report early Thursday and that should confirm the short-term trend in the SPX. IF the “inflation is peaking” traders get a weaker than expected PCE report, they could drive the SPX for a test of 4000 by Friday. A stronger than expected inflation report would generate more selling in stocks below SPX 3798. Crude oil spiked into the 6/28-6/29 New Moon Timing Window, tested $114, and then reversed down today. Our bias is that the rally in crude oil this week was corrective and we are looking for lower lows below $101.53. Our TRIN-5 indicator remains oversold at 7.00 and this could give us quite a rally early Thursday if the PCE report is favorable. Bitcoin is still trending sideways about 20000 support overnight Wednesday. Gold made lows for the week at $1810.7 in the New Moon Timing Window and appears to be grinding down for a test of $1800. The USD broke up out of its triangle pattern and tested its R2 pivot at 105.22 and this pressured the PM sector down.

6/29/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX is treading water until the PCE inflation report early Thursday. If the “peak inflation” traders get the PCE number they are looking for, they could push the SPX back higher for a test of 4000 by Friday. A stronger inflation number than expected, however, would continue the selling in the SPX that started on Tuesday. Our TRIN-5 indicator is very oversold at 7.00 and this could fuel an impressive rally phase if the PCE report breaks the right way. On the other hand, it is also possible that on 6/28, the 55-day Fibonacci step out from 5/4 gave us an important high at 3946 early Tuesday.  A convincing break below Wednesday’s low at SPX 3798 would be bearish for lower prices into 7/20. Bitcoin is hanging around 20000 overnight Wednesday and that is bearish for the SPX early Thursday. Crude oil continued its spike into today’s New Moon Timing Window and tested $114 before reversing down – we have viewed this week’s rally in crude oil as CORRECTIVE and are looking for lows below $101.53. Our bias remains that crude oil is in a C-Wave down from the B-Wave top at $123.57 on 6/14 and that it could test $87-$90. Gold continued lower in today’s New Moon Timing Window and tested $1810.7 before bouncing. The USD broke up out of its triangle pattern and tested 105.19 which pressured the PM sector. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX may have started a 4^th wave correction Monday that should resolve in a 5^th wave higher to test SPX 4000 by Friday if traders like the PCE inflation report early Thursday.  Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold stocks are underperforming gold here and that may relegate gold to a choppy sideways trading range in the near term. Weakly trending gold stocks may imply more weakness in the SPX.  

• Stocks – The SPX is treading water going into Thursday’s PCE inflation report which should set the short-term trend.
• Gold – Gold continued lower to test $1810.7 as the USD roared back to the 105 level.
• Silver – Silver continued lower and looks to test $20.54.
• Bonds – Bonds continued higher today as crude oil reversed down.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil spiked into today’s New Moon Timing Window and tested $114 before reversing down.
• Dollar Index – The USD broke out of its triangle to test the R2 pivot resistance at 105.12 which pressured gold.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/27-6/28.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 28, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX rallied early to 3945.86 and then declined impulsively into the close. Is the bear market rally over, or do we have another leg up into Friday?  The strength of today’s decline did surprise us, but the SPX did decline into today’s New Moon. Our bias is that the SPX can rally into Friday and still test 4000. It all depends on how the PCE inflation report is perceived by the market early Thursday. Our TRIN-5 indicator remains oversold at 6.48 and this could give us a rally early Wednesday. Bitcoin is testing 20000 overnight Tuesday which is bearish for the SPX early Wednesday. Crude oil really spiked into today’s New Moon and tested $112.31. The strength of crude oil for the past three days has somewhat stressed the market which wants to believe in the “peak inflation” story. Gold may have made a short-term low today going into the New Moon. The USD continues to trace out a sideways triangle and continues to trade around 104.

6/28/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX selloff today was stronger than expected but it corrected into our turn window for the week 6/27-6/28, and so we believe that the SPX still has a shot to test SPX 4000 by Friday if the market likes the PCE inflation report early Thursday. Last week’s decline in the SPX into the 6/18 Venus square Saturn was the launching pad for this bear market rally. A convincing break below Tuesday’s low at SPX 3820 would turn us cautious, though. The PCE inflation report early Thursday is very important to the “peak inflation” crowd this week. Bitcoin is testing 20000 overnight Tuesday and that is bearish for the SPX early Wednesday. Crude oil continued its spike into today’s New Moon and tested $112.3 – this was also unsettling to the “peak inflation” crowd. Our bias remains that crude oil is in a C-Wave down from the B-Wave top at $123.57 on 6/14 and that it could test $87-$90. Gold may have made a short-term low in the New Moon today at $1819. The USD is still tracing out a sideways triangle and is holding up near its Person’s pivot of 104. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX started a 4^th wave correction Monday that should resolve in a 5^th wave higher above 4000 on Friday.  Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold stocks are underperforming gold here and that may relegate gold to a choppy sideways trading range in the near term. Weakly trending gold stocks may imply more weakness in the SPX.  

• Stocks – The strength of the SPX decline did surprise us today but it could be a Running B-Wave corrective pattern – if so, we should turn up Wednesday and be testing 4000 by Friday.
• Gold – Gold may have made a short-term low at $1819 today and could give us a bounce.
• Silver – Silver may have finished an EW a-b-c correction on today’s New Moon.
• Bonds – Bonds got a bid today after the SPX fell hard early.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is spiking into today’s New Moon and tested $112.3.
• Dollar Index – The USD is tracing out a triangle after the Swiss central bank raised its rate by 50-basis point on 6/16 but continues to hold up near 104.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/27-6/28.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 27, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX opened strong but then corrected sideways in a 4^th wave correction. Our bias is for a low by tomorrow and then a run to 4000 into Friday before the holiday weekend. We are looking at this bounce as another Bear Market rally that has potential to SPX 4100-4200. Our TRIN-5 indicator remains oversold at ~6 and this could keep the rally going into next week. Bitcoin continues to base around 21000 which is bullish for a short-term bounce. Gold continues to work its way down and another test of $1800 is possible. The USD is tracing out a sideways triangle and continues to trade around 104.

6/27/22 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX started a 4^th wave correction early Monday that should continue into Tuesday. A 5^th wave higher to test SPX 4000 is likely by Friday. Last week’s decline in the SPX into the 6/18 Venus square Saturn aspect was the launching pad for this bear market rally. We would not be short the SPX, NDX or IWM here. We are seeing another large bear market rally that could take us above SPX 4000 into Friday’s holiday weekend. Bitcoin continued to base around 21000 as the SPX corrected today. Crude oil continued its corrective bounce and tested $110. Our bias is that crude oil is in a C-Wave down from the B-Wave top at $123.57 on 6/14 and that it could test $87-$90. Gold continues to grind lower and could see another test of $1800 soon. The USD is tracing out a sideways triangle and is holding up near its Person’s pivot of 104. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX started a 4^th wave correction Monday that should resolve in a 5^th wave higher above 4000 on Friday.  Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold stocks are underperforming gold here and that may relegate gold to a choppy sideways trading range in the near term. Weakly trending gold stocks may imply more weakness in the SPX.  

• Stocks – The SPX turned higher on the 6/18 Venus square Saturn aspect and could see 4000 by Friday.
• Gold – The GDX continues to underperform gold here and that should hold gold in a choppy, sideways trading range.
• Silver – Silver continues in its trading range $20.5 - $22 but the silver COTs continue to look strong.
• Bonds – The Treasuries looked weak after a bad 5-yr US note auction.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil appears to be in a large C-Wave down from the Full Moon high at $123.68 on 6/14.
• Dollar Index – The USD is tracing out a triangle after the Swiss central bank raised its rate by 50-basis point on 6/16 but continues to hold up near 104.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/27-6/28.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - June 26, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The “Venus square Saturn” on June 18 did give the SPX a large rally last week that tested 3900 near Friday’s close. The mild, sideways correction in the E-mini futures from Wednesday into Thursday was the tip off for more rally in the SPX into the weekend. The SPX may have started a 3^rd wave higher from the 6/16 low at 3637. Bitcoin is trading sideways near 2100 overnight Sunday. The Biden-led ban on accepting Russian gold imports gave gold a rally overnight Sunday. USD continued to trade in a tight range around 104.

6/26/22 (Commentary for Sunday) The E-mini is trading above 3900 overnight Sunday and may top out early Monday before a pullback into Tuesday. Last week’s decline in the SPX into Friday the 6/18 Venus square gave us a reversal higher. We would not be short the SPX, NDX or IWM here. We may be seeing another large bear market rally that could take us above SPX 4000 into Friday’s holiday weekend. Bitcoin followed the SPX higher and is coiling around 21000 overnight Sunday. Crude oil is bouncing in a corrective pattern. We could be doing a C-Wave down from the B-Wave top at $123.57 on 6/14 that could test $87-$90. The GDX tested multi-month lows at 28.64 last week and bounced after reversing a spike lower early Friday. The USD appears to be tracing out a complex correction and is holding up near its Person’s pivot of 104.41 overnight Sunday. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX broke higher above 3900 on Friday and the tape reversed up from 3923.  Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold stocks are underperforming gold here and that may relegate gold to a choppy sideways trading range in the near term. Weakly trending gold stocks may imply more weakness in the SPX.  

• Stocks – The E-mini rallied in an EW 5-waves higher into the 6/21-6/22 turn window and then gave us a mild 3-wave correction into Thursday. The run higher late Thursday may be the start a 3^rd wave higher that could run higher into the 7/4 holiday weekend.
• Gold – The GDX undercut multi-month lows at 28.65 and reversed higher on Friday.
• Silver – Silver continues in its trading range under $22 but the silver COTs continue to look strong.
• Bonds – Bonds continued to rally as the 10-yr US rate declined in 5-waves down on the hourly chart.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil appears to be in a large C-Wave down from the Full Moon high at $123.68 on 6/14.
• Dollar Index – The USD declined in 3-waves after the Swiss central bank raised its rate by 50-basis point on 6/16 but is still holding up near 104.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/27-6/28.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 23, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  After an EW 5-wave advance from the 6/16 low into Wednesday, the SPX started a small EW a-b-c correction that ended around 1:00 PM EDT and then a “short-squeeze” drove the SPX and NDX higher into the close. The mild, sideways correction in the E-mini futures from Wednesday into Thursday was the tip off for a late rally in the SPX. The SPX may have started a 3^rd wave higher from the 6/16 low at 3637. Bitcoin followed the SPX higher and is testing 21000 overnight Thursday. The GDX/GLD ratio continues to point down and that leaves gold in a choppy sideways phase – the GDX tested multi-month lows today. The USD continued to trade in a tight range around 104.

6/23/22 (Commentary for Thursday) The mild, sideways correction in the E-mini from Wednesday into Thursday afternoon was the fuse that lit the short-covering rally into Thursday’s close. We would not be short the SPX, NDX or IWM here. The SPX got historically oversold last week but the rebound from 6/16 lacked power so far until today. Bitcoin followed the SPX higher and is testing 21000 overnight Thursday which gives the SPX a positive bias for early Friday. Crude oil is correcting in a sideways wave 4 of 3 of a larger C-Wave down. We could be doing a C-Wave down from the B-Wave top at $123.57 on 6/14. The GDX tested multi-month lows at 28.64 and gold came back to the $1820s. The USD appears to be tracing out a complex correction and is holding up near its Person’s pivot of 104.41 overnight Thursday. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Last week’s SPX action confirmed that the first leg down in the 2022 bear market may still be ongoing. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold stocks are underperforming gold here and that may relegate gold to a choppy sideways trading range in the near term. Weakly trending gold stocks may imply more weakness in the SPX.  

• Stocks – The SPX rallied in an EW 5-waves higher into the 6/21-6/22 turn window and only gave us a mild 3-wave correction into Thursday. The run higher late Thursday may be the start a 3^rd wave higher that could run higher on Friday.
• Gold – The GDX got hit hard today as underperforming gold fell and that argues for more choppy, sideways trading for gold.
• Silver – Silver continues in its trading range under $22 but the silver COTs continue to look strong.
• Bonds – Bonds continued to rally as the 10-yr US rate declined in 5-waves down on the hourly chart.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil declined to $101.75 early Wednesday and appears to be in a large C-Wave down from the Full Moon high at $123.68 on 6/14.
• Dollar Index – The USD declined in 3-waves after the Swiss central bank raised its rate by 50-basis point on 6/16 and the correction appears to be going complex.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/21-6/22.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 22, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX traced out an EW 5-waves higher from the 6/16 low and started a correction late in today’s session. The nature of this SPX correction will determine the short-term trend of the market. Just a 3-wave correction would be bullish for highs above SPX 3800 but 5-waves down on the hourly chart will argue for lower lows in the near term. Bitcoin traded below 20000 again overnight Wednesday before bouncing back. The Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turning point day in our work and we have a 3-star critical reversal day for the SPX on 6/21-6/22 – we could have seen a significant high today. Our next lower target of SPX 3500 could still be in play in the short-term. The GDX/GLD ratio continues to point down and that leaves gold in a choppy sideways phase. The USD continues to trace out a large EW a-b-c correction after the Swiss central bank raised its rate by 50-basis points last week.

6/22/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX rallied in an EW 5-wave advance into the 3-star critical reversal window 6/21-6/22 on Wednesday and we started a correction down late in the session. The SPX has a 3-star critical reversal day on June 21-22 and if it came in as a high on Tuesday/Wednesday that could be bearish for another leg down in the SPX this week. The SPX got historically oversold last week but the rebound from last Thursday has lacked power so far – we may need more washout down to 3500 this week before a substantial rebound. The SPX bounced from Thursday and rallied into the powerful Venus square Saturn aspect on Tuesday/Wednesday which could give us a reversal back down. Bitcoin is testing 20000 again overnight Wednesday and this gives the SPX a negative bias for early Thursday. Crude oil fell to test $101.53 early Wednesday and appears to be sub-dividing down impulsively – we could be doing a C-Wave down from the B-Wave top at $123.57 on 6/14. Gold stocks are underperforming gold here and that has us looking for a choppy sideways trading range for gold. The USD appears to be tracing out a complex correction and is holding up near its Person’s pivot of 104.33 overnight Wednesday. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Last week’s SPX action confirmed that the first leg down in the 2022 bear market may still be ongoing. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold stocks are underperforming gold here and that may relegate gold to a choppy sideways trading range in the near term. Weakly trending gold stocks may imply more weakness in the SPX.  

• Stocks – The SPX rallied in an EW 5-waves higher into the 6/21-6/22 3-star critical reversal window which may have come in as a high today – how we trade on Thursday will enlighten us.
• Gold – Gold stocks are underperforming gold and that argues for more choppy, sideways trading for gold.
• Silver – Silver continues in its trading range under $22.
• Bonds – Bonds continued to rally as the 10-yr US rate declined in 5-waves down on the hourly chart.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil declined to $101.75 early Wednesday and appears to be in a large C-Wave down from the Full Moon high at $123.68 on 6/14.
• Dollar Index – The USD declined in 3-waves after the Swiss central bank raised its rate by 50-basis point on Thursday and the correction appears to be going complex.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/21-6/22.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 21, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX made a low on Thursday and rallied into the Tuesday after a monthly expiration which is a “turn window”. Our bias is now for a reversal down on the SPX on Wednesday and just a 3-wave correction would be bullish for highs above SPX 3800. Bitcoin is coming down hard overnight to test 20000 again which argues for a weak open in the SPX on Wednesday. The Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turning point day in our work and we have a 3-star critical reversal day for the SPX on 6/21-6/22. Our next target of SPX 3500 could still be in play in the short-term. Gold rallied in 3-waves and tagged $1861 last week before reversing down to test $1828 overnight Tuesday. The USD is tracing out a large EW a-b-c correction after the Swiss central bank raised its rate by 50-basis points last week.

6/21/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX rallied hard into the 6/21-6/22 turn window on Tuesday and the E-mini is declining overnight. The SPX has a 3-star critical reversal day on June 21-22 and if it came in as a high on Tuesday that could be bearish for another leg down in the SPX this week. The SPX got historically oversold last week but the rebound from last Thursday was not obviously impulsive – we may need more washout down to 3500 this week before a substantial rebound. The SPX bounced from Thursday and rallied into the powerful Venus square Saturn aspect on Tuesday/Wednesday which could give us a reversal back down. Bitcoin is testing 20000 again overnight Tuesday and this gives the SPX a negative bias for early Wednesday. Crude oil fell to test $105 overnight Tuesday and appears to be sub-dividing down impulsively – we could be doing a C-Wave down from the B-Wave top at $123.57 on 6/14. Gold bounced in 3-waves to test $1861 after the Fed rate hike before reversing down to test $1828 overnight Tuesday. The USD appears to be tracing out a complex correction and is testing 104.71 Tuesday night. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Last week’s SPX action confirmed that the first leg down in the 2022 bear market may still be ongoing. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold bounced to $1861 after the 50-basis rate hike from the Fed and then declined to $1828 overnight Tuesday. Gold gave us 5-waves down from $1882.5 on 6/10 and just a 3-wave bounce today to $1861 on Thursday which is bearish.  

• Stocks – The SPX rallied hard into our turn window today and the E-mini is rolling over overnight Tuesday. The SPX is historically oversold but the 6/21-6/22 3-star critical reversal window could have come in as a high today – how we trade Wednesday will enlighten us.
• Gold – Gold rallied in a 3-wave bounce and tested $1861 on 6/16 before pulling back Tuesday night to test $1828.
• Silver – After testing $22 on Tuesday, silver is falling overnight to test $21.34.
• Bonds – Bonds started to rally overnight as the E-mini sells off.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil declined to $105 overnight Tuesday and appears to be in a large C-Wave down from the Full Moon high at $123.68 on 6/14.
• Dollar Index – The USD declined in 3-waves after the Swiss central bank raised its rate by 50-basis point on Thursday and the correction appears to be going complex.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/21-6/22.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - June 20, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  We looked for a reversal week last week – did we get a reversal higher on Thursday as Jim Cramer of CNBC thinks? On Friday, three analysts on CNBC argued for SPX 4500 by year end – we are very skeptical of this idea, Still, we got historically oversold last week on the SPX based on data going back to 1928. However, our bias is that the Fed engineered “A Bubble of Everything” after the 3/23/20 Covid low and the financial markets are now adjusting in a “historical way” to the popping of this bubble.  Our TRIN-5 indicator remains elevated at 8.33 and our Option Premium Ratio jumped from 1.74 to 3.60 which argues for weakness sometime tomorrow. The Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turning point day in our work. Our next target of SPX 3500 could still be in play in the short-term. If we do get a mini-crash washout on Tuesday, there is a hard financial-astro aspect (Venus square Saturn) that should bring a strong reversal higher and last longer than the “bear market bounce” from 5/20 to 6/2. A VIX spike > 50 will tell us that a strong reversal is at hand. Gold rallied in 3-waves and tested $1861 last week before reversing down. The USD is tracing out a large EW a-b-c correction after the Swiss central bank raised its rate by 50-basis points.

6/20/22 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX is close to staging a reversal higher, but it may need a final minicrash to SPX 3500 first on Tuesday/Wednesday. The SPX has a 3-star critical reversal day on June 21-22 and that could come in as a low – if it comes in as a high on Tuesday/Wednesday that would be a bearish for another leg down in the SPX. The SPX got historically oversold last week but the rebound from last Thursday is not obviously impulsive – we may need a mini-crash down to 3500 this week before a substantial rebound. The high TRIN-5 number at 8.33 and the 5-yr high on the Option Premium Ratio of 3.6 argue for weakness on Tuesday. The SPX is bouncing from Thursday and contacting the powerful Venus square Saturn aspect on Tuesday/Wednesday which could give us a reversal back down. Bitcoin traded below 20000 over the holiday weekend. Crude oil is rebounding to its R2 resistance pivot at $110.59 overnight Monday. Gold bounced in 3-waves to test $1861 after the Fed rate hike before reversing down. The USD tested 105.79, another 20-yr high, and then declined sharply in 3-waves after the Swiss central bank raised rates by 50-basis points. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Last week’s SPX action confirmed that the first leg down in the 2022 bear market may still be ongoing. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low bottoms and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold bounced to $1861 after the 50-basis rate hike from the Fed and then declined into the holiday weekend. Gold gave us 5-waves down from $1882.5 on 6/10 and just a 3-wave bounce today to $1861 on Thursday.  

• Stocks – The SPX rapidly erased the post-Fed pop in another 90% down today. The SPX is historically oversold and we are approaching the 6/21-6/22 3-star critical reversal window which should be a low. The Option Premium Ratio plunged from 3.29 to 1.74  as traders expect an early rally on Friday.
• Gold – Gold rallied in a 3-wave bounce and tested $1861 on 6/16 post-Fed before correcting.
• Silver – Silver continues to consolidate after the Fed rate hike between $21.50 and $22.00.
• Bonds – Bonds bounced in a 3-wave corrective structure that made an early low at 131’01 on Thursday before rallying into the holiday weekend.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil declined to $106.4 on Friday before bouncing to $110.5 overnight Monday.
• Dollar Index – The USD declined in 3-waves after the Swiss central bank raised its rate by 50-basis point on Thursday and the correction appears to be going complex.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/21-6/22.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - June 16, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The post-Fed SPX bounce got erased today and once again more than 90% of stocks in the S&P 500 declined. It’s the fifth time in the past seven trading days and since 1928, there have been exactly zero precedents. We are witnessing the fiercest display of market selling in US market history. Our TRIN-5 indicator remains elevated at 8.76 – and this highly oversold level could still lead to more washout on quad-witching Friday. The Option Premium Ratio plunged from 3.29 to 1.74 today and that argues for early strength on Friday. Our closing $TRIN was 2.02 and that also argues for statistical SPX strength early Friday. We have experienced tremendous volatility this week from the following five factors: the 6/13-6/15 Full Moon Timing Window, the 6/14 monthly VIX expiration, multiple astro-finance aspects, the 6/15 Fed day and the 6/17 quad-witching expiration – so traders need to buckle up. The SPX has a 3-star critical reversal day on 6/21-6/22 and that should be a reversal higher – perhaps after a mini-crash first. Bonds made a lower low early Thursday at 131’01 before rallying into the close – this could have been a bearish Running B-Wave continuation pattern. Crude oil made an undercut low at $110.43 early Thursday before bouncing in 3-waves – the XLE continues to roll over. Gold rallied in 3-waves and tested $1861 before reversing down. The USD powered to another 20-yr high at 105.79 and then declined in 3-waves to 103.5 after the Swiss central bank raised its rate by 50-basis points.

6/16/22 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX is close to staging a reversal higher, but it may need a final minicrash first. The SPX has a 3-star critical reversal day on June 21-22 and that should come in as a low. The SPX is on a historic run of 90% down days and this market has become historically oversold. We are expecting more volatility on Friday, but it is probably getting too late to try shorting. Quad-witching Friday could give us volatility on steroids. This extremely volatile week came from five sources: the 6/13-6/15 Full Moon Timing Window, the 6/14 monthly VIX expiration, multiple astro-finance aspects, the 6/15 Fed Day and the 6/17 quad-witching expiration. Our TRIN-5 indicator remains elevated at 8.76 and is still conducive to more market sell off. Bitcoin found support at 20025 and is trying to form a bottom. Crude oil continued to decline after the Full Moon and tested $110.43 before bouncing, but the XLE continues to correct. Gold bounced in 3-waves to test $1851 before reversing down. The USD tested 105.79, another 20-yr high, and then declined sharply in 3-waves after the Swiss central bank raised rates by 50-basis points. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~20% in physical gold/silver/platinum.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – Monday’s SPX action confirmed that the first leg down in the 2022 Bear Market is still ongoing. Longer term, the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low lands and the US economy slows to a recession. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold made an intermediate cycle low at $1785 on 5/16 and then bounced to $1882.5 on Friday after the CPI report. Gold gave us 5-waves down from $1882.5 and just a 3-wave bounce today to $1861 on Thursday.  

• Stocks – The SPX rapidly erased the post-Fed pop in another 90% down today. The SPX is historically oversold and we are approaching the 6/21-6/22 3-star critical reversal window which should be a low. The Option Premium Ratio plunged from 3.29 to 1.74  as traders expect an early rally on Friday.
• Gold – Gold rallied in a 3-wave bounce and tested $1851 before reversing down.
• Silver – Silver tested $22 on Thursday before pulling back late to tag its Person’s pivot at $21.75.
• Bonds – Bonds bounced in a 3-wave corrective structure that made an early low at 131’01 before rallying into the close.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil declined to test $110.43 before getting a 3-wave bounce but the XLE continued to get sold hard.
• Dollar Index – The USD tested 105.79 on Wednesday before declining in 3-waves to test 103.5 on Thursday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 6/13-6/14.