All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 16, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The corrective bounce in the SPX appeared to run its course today on the Full Moon and left a Doji candlestick on the daily candlestick. Our bias is that the low volume of today’s SPX rally and the weak close is pointing to more downside into Tuesday. The SPX did take out our multi-month symmetry target at 3931 last week and that break of symmetry argues for lower lows in the near term. Gold tested $1785 overnight Sunday and rallied to $182 by the close on Monday on today’s Full Moon. Crude oil bounced into the Monday Full Moon and tested $115 – the XLE rallied to a new high at 83.76. The USD declined on Monday and is testing $104 overnight.  

5/16/22 (Commentary for Monday) It appeared that the SPX finished a Running B-Wave correction from Thursday on Monday – the low volume of the SPX on Monday looked bearish as did the Doji candlestick. Our bias is for more correction down in the SPX on Tuesday. A move down to test 3800 is still possible this week as we approach monthly option expiration. The Option Premium Ratio held up at 2.84 today and that argues for lows below SPX 3858 by next week. Last week started off with Mercury going retrograde on Monday and it appeared that stocks, bonds and currencies were poised for reversals from short-term lows, however, the stock rally into Monday is not convincing to us so far. Bitcoin is holding above 30000 and its Person’s pivot on Monday night and that is positive for the open on Tuesday. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities – we also hold some FXY (Yen) shares. Crude oil is testing $115 Monday evening on the Full Moon. The USD rolled over to test 104 on Monday, but the Yen and Euro continue to trend sideways.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We believe that the SPX could give us a 20%-50% correction by spring 2023 as the 20-yr cycle low hits and the US economy slows. We favor a high percentage of cash for capital preservation.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold is close to an intermediate cycle low that should bottom by early next week.

• Stocks – The SPX undercut out symmetry target of 3930 by a wide margin and this keeps are target range of 3500-3800 going into 5/20-5/23.
• Gold – Gold spiked down to tag $1785 overnight Sunday but finished Monday at $1822 on the Monday’s Full Moon. The ICL may not be seen until 5/20-5/23.
• Silver – Silver briefly undercut its 50% retracement from the Covid low ($20.77) and tagged $20.42 on Friday before bouncing up to test $21.60 on Monday’s Full Moon.
• Bonds – Bonds appear to be bouncing correctively from 134’30 and that implies a test of 3.17% on the 10-yr US rate.  
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $115 overnight Monday on the Full Moon.
• Dollar Index – The USD ran to a new high for the year at 105 on Friday but is rolling over to test 104 on Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for the next week is 5/16.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - May 15, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX and NDX both had big rally days, but we view the market rally from Thursday as a corrective bounce into Monday’s Full Moon/lunar eclipse. The GDX (gold stocks) led the SPX down from the 4/18 high and their relative weakness on Friday is a tell that the SPX has more to go on the downside into the coming week. The SPX did take out our multi-month symmetry target at 3931 last week and that break of symmetry argues for lower lows in the near term.  This market still needs a capitulation and a catalyst for that might be the Monday Full Moon/lunar eclipse – a market bounce into Sunday night or early Monday may see a strong reversal down. Money statistics indicate that the “buy the dip” crowd bought heavily in the March rally and are deeply under water – this group needs to capitulate before we get a lasting low. Our bias is now for a whoosh down to test the SPX 3500-3800 sometime in the next two weeks. Gold undercut $1800 on Friday and we view the weekly close below $1822 as negative for the SPX. Crude oil bounced into the Full Moon Timing Window and is testing $111 – the XLE got a bounce on Friday. The USD made a new high at 105 on Friday but the currencies like the Euro and Yen appear ready for a bounce.

5/15/22 (Commentary for Sunday) Bitcoin bounced from 25230 pre-market Thursday and tested 30564 on Friday but the rally looks corrective to us. In our view, Bitcoin just made a corrective bounce into the 5/13-5/16 Full Moon/lunar eclipse and is about to lead the SPX down next week. A whoosh down to 3500-3800 is still possible next week after early Monday’s Full Moon/lunar eclipse. The Option Premium Ratio held up to 2.82 last week and that argues for lows below SPX 3858 going into next week. The stock, bond and currency markets all appeared ripe for a reversal last week – but the reversal attempts in stocks and currencies did not look convincing. The SPX high-energy geo-cosmic turn window which looks to be a low could extend into Monday’s Full Moon/lunar eclipse. Last week started off with Mercury going retrograde on Monday and it appeared that stocks, bonds and currencies were poised for reversals from short-term lows, however, the stock rally on Friday was not convincing to us. Bitcoin is holding above 30000 so far on Sunday evening but its bounce from Thursday looks complete. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities – we also hold some FXY (Yen) shares. Crude oil tested $111.71 on its R1 resistance pivot Sunday night and then reversed down. The USD made a new high at 105 on Friday, but the Yen may have made an important low last Monday and the Euro on Thursday.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX undercut our symmetry correction target of 3930 on Thursday and our target range remains 3500-3800 by 5/20-5/23.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold’s weak close on Friday below $1810 argues for more down on Monday’s Full Moon/lunar eclipse.

• Stocks – The SPX undercut out symmetry target of 3930 by a wide margin and this keeps are target range of 3500-3800 going into 5/20-5/23.
• Gold – Gold made a weak close on Friday below $1810 and that argues for more down into Monday. The ICL may not be seen until 5/20-5/23.
• Silver – Silver gave us a 3-wave rally Sunday night to test its R1 resistance pivot at $21.29 before rolling over.
• Bonds – The move down in the 10-yr US rate last week looked corrective and the rally in bonds looked corrective – we could see higher rates this week.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $111.71 overnight Sunday and rolled over when it tested its R1 resistance pivot.
• Dollar Index – The USD ran to a new high for the year at 105 on Friday, but the Yen and Euro may have made lows last week.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for the next week is 5/16.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 12, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The PPI came in at 11% YoY and the SPX gave us a gap-down open followed by an EW a-b-c bounce into the close. We saw some capitulation in the “generals” - AAPl and MSFT  =and that means we are getting closer to a sustainable low. The SPX did take out our symmetry target at 3931 and made a low at 3859 – we did not get a “whoosh” down in the SPX but the Big Tech stocks have sold off with heavy volume. However, this market still needs a capitulation and the best catalyst for that might be the Monday Full Moon/lunar eclipse – we are expecting a low on Monday/Tuesday. Money statistics indicate that the “buy the dip” crowd bought heavily in the March rally and are deeply under water – this group needs to capitulate before we get a lasting low. Our bias is now for a whoosh down to test the SPX 3500-3800 range into the 5/16-5/17 Full Moon Timing Window. We are expecting some kind of short-term SPX low to form and a relief rally to start in several markets by early next week. Gold tested  $1809 overnight Thursday and then bounced to tag $1824 – gold is very close to an intermediate cycle low (ICL) but the PM sector is going down with the stock market here and could overshoot to the downside. Crude oil is testing $108 overnight Thursday and appears to be in a run up into the 5/16 Full Moon. The USD made a new high at 104.925 but the currencies like the Euro, Yen and gold all appear ready for a bounce.

5/12/22 (Commentary for Thursday) Bitcoin declined down to 25350 pre-market Thursday and that helped give the SPX a gap-down open after the hot PPI report. The hotter-than-expected PPI report did give us a move down to 3858 before a bounce into the close. A whoosh down to 3500-3800 is still possible going into Monday’s Full Moon/lunar eclipse. The Option Premium Ratio bounced back to 2.99 on Thursday and that argues for lows below SPX 3858 going into Monday. The CNN Fear and Greed indicator hit lows for the year at 6 – extreme fear. The bond market relief rally continued higher Thursday and tagged 141’03 pre-market. The stock, bond and currency markets all appeared ripe for a reversal this week. The SPX high-energy geo-cosmic turn window which looks to be a low could extend into Monday’s Full Moon/lunar eclipse. This week started off with Mercury going retrograde on Monday and it appears that stocks, bonds and currencies are poised for short-term reversals soon – bonds have already reversed higher. Bitcoin is testing its R1 resistance pivot at 30525 and this points to a higher open for the SPX. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities – we added some FXY (Yen) shares this morning. Crude oil is bouncing to $108 overnight and could be making a run into the Monday Full Moon. The USD made a new high at 104.92, but the Yen may have made an important low early Monday and the Euro today.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX undercut our symmetry correction target of 3930 on Thursday and our target range remains 3500-3800 by Monday/Tuesday.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested $1809 overnight Thursday before bouncing to $1824 – we are very close to an intermediate cycle low (ICL) this week.

• Stocks – The SPX undercut out symmetry target of 3930 by a wide margin and this keeps are target range of 3500-3800 going into Monday. The hot PPI report gave us more decline but not a capitulation. We could see a whoosh to “3500-3800” by Monday.  
• Gold – Gold tested $1809 Thursday night and then bounced to $1824.
• Silver – Silver gave us a head fake below $21 Thursday and could now bounce into the Full Moon Monday.
• Bonds – Bonds continued its relief rally on Thursday and tested 141’03 pre-market today.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is rallying to $108 overnight and could have started a run higher into the Full Moon.
• Dollar Index – The USD ran to a new high for the year at 104.92, but the Yen and Euro look close to a reversal higher.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for the next few days is 5/16.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 11, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The CPI number came in hotter than expected but still no capitulation in the SPX. The SPX did reach a symmetry correction from the 1/4/22 high at 3931 – will this give us a reversal higher Thursday after the PPI inflation report?  Maybe, but this market needs a capitulation and the best catalyst for that might be the Monday Full Moon/lunar eclipse. Money statistics indicate that the “buy the dip” crowd bought heavily in the March rally and are deeply under water – this group needs to capitulate before we get a lasting low. Our bias is now for a whoosh down to test the SPX 3500-3800 range into the 5/16-5/17 Full Moon Timing Window. We are expecting some kind of short-term SPX low to form and a relief rally to start in several markets by early next week. Gold tagged $1830.6 overnight Tuesday and then bounced to test $1858 overnight Wednesday after the CPI report – gold is very close to an intermediate cycle low (ICL) but the PM sector is going down with the stock market here and could overshoot to the downside. We sold our GOLD shares early this morning. Crude oil rallied to test $106 on Wednesday and may be in a run up into the 5/16 Full Moon. The USD continues to hold up above 104 but the currencies like the Euro, Yen and gold all appear ready for a bounce.

5/11/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) Bitcoin is down hard to test 26600 overnight Wednesday and that implies early weakness in the SPX on Thursday. Bitcoin appears to be getting sold to meet margin calls. We are expecting volatility in several markets after the release of the PPI inflation report early Thursday. A whoosh down to 3500-3800 is possible on a hot PPI report. The extreme spike in the Option Premium Ratio Tuesday from 2.22 to 3.41, a 5-year high, argued for big volatility on Wednesday and we got that. The bond market relief rally continued higher Wednesday and is testing 140 overnight. The stock, bond and currency markets appeared ripe for a reversal this week. The SPX high-energy geo-cosmic turn window on 5/10-5/11 suggests that the market could see a capitulation low by Monday. This week started off with Mercury going retrograde on Monday and it appears that stocks, bonds and currencies are poised for short-term reversals this week – bonds have already reversed higher. Bitcoin is testing 26,600 overnight – traders may be meeting margin calls with digital currency sales. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities – we sold our GOLD shares early this morning on a corrective bounce. Crude oil bounced to test $106 overnight and could be making a run into the Monday Full Moon. The USD continues to hold up around 104, but the Yen may have made an important low early Monday.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX tested our symmetry correction target of 3930 near the close Wednesday – we are expecting big volatility in the SPX on Thursday.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold tested $1830 late Tuesday and ran up to tag $1859 after the CPI report – we are very close to an intermediate cycle low (ICL) this week.

• Stocks – The SPX closed near to our “symmetry” target of 3930. The hot CPI report gave us more decline but not a capitulation. We could see a whoosh to “3500-3800” by Monday.  
• Gold – Gold tested $1830 Tuesday night before the CPI and then rallied to tag $1859 Wednesday night.
• Silver – Silver is looking to test $21 by Thursday.
• Bonds – Bonds continued its relief rally on Wednesday and is testing 140 overnight.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tagged $106 and gave the XLE a bounce today.
• Dollar Index – On the back of higher US rates, the USD continues to hold up around 104 but the Yen and Euro look close to a reversal higher.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 5/10-5/11.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 10, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  Led by Bitcoin, the SPX gapped higher early Tuesday only to once again roll over and make new lows for the year at 3958.17. A symmetry correction from the 1/4/22 high at SPX 4818 yields a calculation of 3931 which is close to today’s low. We are expecting big volatility after the CPI report early Wednesday – a YoY rate below the consensus of 8.1% inflation could spark a rally and a hotter number could takes us lower for a potential whoosh to 3800. The bears really piled on today – the Option Premium Ratio spiked from 2.22 to 3.41, a 5-year high. One way or another, we are expecting big volatility on Wednesday. Our bias was for a whoosh down to test SPX 3800 in a capitulation move into the 5/10-5/11 turn window but we’re not so sure that this is likely to happen tomorrow as so many expect it. We are expecting some kind of short-term SPX low to form and a relief rally to start in several markets. Gold tested $1835 support late in the afternoon in our 5/10-5/11 high–energy turn window and that was our signal to add some gold shares like GOLD or NEM. Crude oil declined in 5-waves and tested $98 before a bounce – the XLE also completed a 5-wave down pattern. The USD continues to hold up above 104 but the currencies like the Euro, Yen and gold all appear ready for a bounce.

5/10/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) Bitcoin’s early rally led the SPX to another early fake-out gap-open higher which failed and then made lows for the week at 3958.7. We are expecting volatility in several markets after the release of the CPI report early Wednesday. A whoosh down to 3800 is possible on a hot number or a relief rally if the number is more benign. A symmetry correction from the 1/4/22 high yields 3930 which is close to today’s low. The extreme spike in the Option Premium Ratio today from 2.22 to 3.41, a 5-year high, argues for big volatility on Wednesday. The bond market relief rally continued higher today as the 10-yr US rate continued to back off to the 2.98% area. The stock, bond and currency markets appear ripe for a reversal this week. The SPX 3-star geo-cosmic turn window on 5/10-5/11 suggests that the market may see a capitulation low by early Wednesday. This week started off with Mercury going retrograde on Monday and a possible SPX capitulation whoosh down into the high-energy 5/10-5/11 turn window could take us to SPX 3800 early Wednesday. It appears that stocks, bonds and currencies are poised for short-term reversals this week. Bitcoin tested 29,700 overnight Monday but is continuing to hover just above 31,000 Tuesday night – traders may be meeting margin calls with digital currency sales. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities – we added some GOLD shares today when gold touched $1835. Crude oil fell to test $98 overnight but is bouncing – we could see a bounce in the XLE stocks early Wednesday. The USD continues to hold up around 104, but the Yen may have made an important low early Monday.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX tested 3958.7 on Tuesday near the 55-day Fibonacci step out from 3/14  – we are expecting big volatility in the SPX on Wednesday.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold slid lower and tested $1831 today before the CPI report tomorrow – we are very close to an intermediate cycle low this week.

• Stocks – The SPX tagged 3958.17 today which is close to our “symmetry” target of 3930. A hot CPI report could give us a capitulation move down to 3800 early Wednesday but a more benign number could kick off a relief rally in several markets.  
• Gold – Gold tagged $1835 late in the session and triggered our addition of GOLD shares.
• Silver – Silver is testing $21 before the CPI report – we consider that a “head fake” down that should be reversed higher early Wednesday.
• Bonds – Bonds continued its relief rally on Tuesday and tested 139’14.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $98 late Tuesday and bounced – that could give the XLE stocks a bounce early Wednesday.
• Dollar Index – On the back of higher US rates, the USD continues to hold up around 104 but the Yen and Euro look close to a reversal higher.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 5/10-5/11.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 9, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  Led once again by Bitcoin, the SPX gapped down on Monday and closed below 4000 as the 10-yr US rate gapped higher early in the day. The DJIA joined the SPX and NDX and took out its Jan-March lows today. The SPX gapped down on its 55-day Fibonacci step out 3/14 which fell on Sunday. After the opening gap down, the SPX was too weak to fill the opening gap. Our bias has been for a whoosh down to test SPX 3800 in a capitulation move – we’ll see if that is attainable on Tuesday. Bonds continue to grind lower to 134’30 pre-market Monday but staged a relief rally into Monday evening that could turn the 10-yr US rate down impulsively early Tuesday. Gold tested $1850 late Monday and is bouncing overnight – we have a high-energy geo-cosmic turn window on 5/10-5/11. Crude oil is testing $100 overnight Monday and that hit the XLE hard today. The USD made a new high for the year at 104.19 on Monday but the Yen made a new low and reversed higher.

5/09/22 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX gave us a gap down open on the 55-day Fibonacci step out from 3/14, and the E-mini appears to have made a pattern completion overnight Monday. The SPX may give us a bounce on Tuesday as it awaits the CPI inflation number early Wednesday. The bond market made a lower low to 134’30 and then gave us a strong relief rally into Monday evening. The stock, bond and currency markets appear ripe for a reversal this week. The SPX 3-star geo-cosmic turn window on 5/10-5/11 suggests that the market may see a capitulation low by early Wednesday. In defiance of the US Fed, the 10-yr US rate rallied to new yearly highs at 3.17% overnight Sunday before declining during Monday’s session to reach 3.07% 3.31%. This week starts off with Mercury going retrograde on Monday and a possible SPX capitulation whoosh down into the high-energy 5/10-5/11 turn window could take us to SPX 3800. Bonds made new lows at 134’30 before rebounding sharply into overnight Monday. It appears that stocks, bonds and currencies are poised for short-term reversals. Bitcoin tested 29,700 overnight and is giving the NDX a negative bias for the NDX early Tuesday – traders may be meeting margin calls with digital currency sales. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities. Crude oil fell to test $100 late Monday and that could further pressure the XLE early Tuesday. Gold is testing $1867 overnight Monday but could still see a test of the $1830s. The USD made a new high at 104.19 overnight Sunday, but the Yen may have made an important low early Monday.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX tested 3975.48 late Monday on the 55-day Fibonacci step out from 3/14  – we may see a bounce on Tuesday before the CPI report early Wednesday.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold is testing $1867 Monday evening but could still see a decline to the $1830s.

• Stocks – The SPX tested 3975 late Monday on the 55-day Fibonacci step out from 3/14 - a bounce into Tuesday makes sense before the CPI report early Wednesday.
• Gold – Gold is testing $1867 Monday evening but could still head down to the $1830s this week.
• Silver – Silver tested $21.65 Monday night before getting a bounce.
• Bonds – Bonds tested 134’30 before staging a large relief rally into Monday night that could give the 10-yr US rate a 5-wave decline early Tuesday.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil tested $100 late Monday and that could pressure energy stocks more early Tuesday.
• Dollar Index – On the back of higher US rates, the USD tested 104.17 early Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 5/10-5/11.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - May 8, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  On Friday, the stronger than expected NFP jobs report took the SPX and bonds down early to test the low of the week at SPX 4062.51 early before a final bounce into the close. The E-mini and NQ are taking out last week’s lows overnight Sunday which is bearish. Bitcoin is once again leading the stock futures down overnight Sunday. On the positive side, the SPX and NDX have taken out their Jan-March lows, but the DJIA remains above its Jan-March low for a case of intermarket bullish divergence. Bonds continue to grind lower to 135’29 overnight Sunday which could translate into a higher 10-yr US rate early Monday above 3.31%. Our bias is that the SPX is in a 3^rd of a 3^rd wave down from 3/29, and we could see a mini-crash into the 5/10-5/11 turn window Mon/Tues that could test 3800. Gold is testing $1875 overnight Sunday and could break lower on Monday/Tuesday – the PM sector has a monthly tendency to decline into Friday’s NFP jobs report and we have a high-energy geo-cosmic turn window on 5/10-5/11. Crude oil is holding above its Person’s Pivot at $110 overnight. The USD made a new high for the year at 104.06 on Friday as Dark Pool prints in the USDU and UUP came in as buy prints.

5/08/22 (Commentary for Sunday) The stock market appears close to an important turn as we enter the new week, however, the bond market continues to grind lower overnight and that translates into a higher 10-yr US rate above 3/31% early Monday. The SPX 3-star geo-cosmic turn window on 5/10-5/11 suggests that the market may see a capitulation low early this week. The SPX has been acting in “true bear market fashion” since its high on 3/29 - big rally days that get followed by plunges to new lows – Thursday continued to follow that pattern. In defiance of the US Fed, the 10-yr US rate rallied to new yearly highs at 3.11% on Thursday and reached even higher early Friday at 3.31%. This week starts off with Mercury going retrograde on Monday and a possible  capitulation whoosh down into the high-energy 5/10-5/11 turn window could take us to SPX 3800. Bonds are making new lows at 135’29 Sunday night and this argues for a 10-yr US rate testing highs above 3.31% early Monday. Bitcoin is coming down hard Sunday night and testing 33,000 – this augurs for a negative SPX open early Monday. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities. Crude oil is holding above its Person’s Pivot at $110 overnight Sunday – the oil stocks held up well on Friday. Gold is testing $1874 overnight Sunday and looks poised to test the $1830s. The USD made a new high at 104.06 overnight Sunday on the back of higher US long rates.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX declined in an EW 5-waves down from 3/29 to 4062 on 5/3 and all we got was a 3-wave bounce back to test 4300 on Thursday – the E-mini and NQ are taking out their Friday lows Sunday night.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold is testing $1874 Sunday evening and looks poised for a decline to the $1830s.

• Stocks – The SPX tested 4062 early Friday and bounce correctively. The E-mini and NQ futures are taking out the lows from Friday. The SPX is in a 3^rd of a 3^rd wave down from3/29 and could make a capitulation low into early next week below 3800.
• Gold – Gold is testing $1874 Sunday evening and it looks headed down to the $1830s early Monday.
• Silver – Silver is testing the Friday lows at $22.11 Sunday night.
• Bonds – Bonds continue to grind down on Sunday evening to new lows at 135’29 – the 10-yr US rate could pop above 3.31 early Monday.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is holding above its Person’s Pivot at $110 Sunday night.
• Dollar Index – On the back of higher US rates, the USD is testing 104.07 Sunday evening.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is 5/10-5/11.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 5, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The Bear Market of 2022 took back yesterday’s post-Fed gains in one of the worst days of the year, but we got no volume spike of capitulation. The very oversold US bond market continued to grind lower and the 10-yr US rate continued to subdivide higher to 3.11% as the US Treasury market gave its response to Chairman Powell comment yesterday of “no 0.75% Fed funds rate hike was considered.” Bitcoin once again led the SPX down and is just bouncing correctively overnight Thursday which augurs for SPX weakness early Friday. Our bias is that the SPX is in a 3^rd of a 3^rd wave down from 3/29 and we could see a mini-crash into the 5/10-5/11 turn window next week. Gold tested $1909 early Thursday before selling off to $1865 Thursday evening – the PM sector has a monthly tendency to decline into Friday’s NFP jobs report. Crude oil tested $111 before correcting but the XLE held up better than most sectors on today’s decline. The USD made a new high for the year at 103.94 as the 10-yr US rate made a higher high.

5/05/22 (Commentary for Thursday) A US bond market continuing to grind down and yielding higher long bond rates knocked the SPX back down after the post-Fed rally on Wednesday. The SPX 3-star geo-cosmic turn window on 5/10-5/11 suggests that the market may see a capitulation low early next week. The SPX has been acting in “true bear market fashion” since its high on 3/29 - big rally days that get followed by plunges to new lows – Thursday continued to follow that pattern. In defiance of the US Fed, the 10-yr US rate rallied to new yearly highs at 3.11% on Thursday and this put the stock market through the wringer. This week contains some of the most dangerous financial astrology of the year and a capitulation whoosh down into the high-energy 5/10-5/11 turn window could take us to SPX 3800. Bonds are testing lows overnight Thursday and this argues for a 10-yr US rate testing highs on Friday if the NFP jobs report is received in an inflationary way. Bitcoin came down hard on Thursday and is just bouncing correctively overnight which is a negative tell for the SPX Friday morning. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities. Crude oil broke out of its coil pattern and tested $111 early Thursday before correcting – the oil stocks held up better than most sectors. Gold tested $1910.7 early Thursday before pulling back on higher long rates and testing $1865. Did gold make an intermediate-cycle low at $1849 earlier this week – the post-NFP jobs report should enlighten us. The USD made a new high at 103.94 on the back of higher US long rates.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX declined in an EW 5-waves down from 3/29 to 4062 and all we got was a 3-wave bounce back to test 4300 on Thursday – the SPX may have entered a 3^rd of a 3^rd wave down from the 3/29 high.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Did gold make an ICL at $1849.7 on Tuesday? How we trade post-NFP jobs report on Friday will tell us.

• Stocks – The SPX took back the big post-Fed rally to 4308 in another bear market tantrum over rising US long rates. Our take is that the SPX is in a 3^rd of a 3^rd wave down from3/29 and could make a capitulation low into early next week below 3800.
• Gold – Gold tested $1910.7 early Thursday before rising long rates knocked the metal down to $1865 overnight.
• Silver – Silver declined in 5-waves down to test its S1 support pivot at $22.11 before bouncing overnight.
• Bonds – Bonds continued to grind down on Thursday and undercut the 138’20 low – rising long rates pressured the SPX today.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil broke out of its coil pattern and tested $111 before correcting.
• Dollar Index – The USD broke higher to make a new high at 103.94.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 5/6 NFP job report.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 4, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX waffled after the release of the FOMC minutes at 2:00 PM EDT but when Chairman Powell took the stage the SPX took off. His answer to the question of the possibility of a 0.75% Fed funds rate hike was a DEFINITE NO and that eased the fears of traders that the Fed was going to overreact to being so far behind the curve. Our short-term bias about the post=Fed SPX reaction was wrong, the SPX managed to test resistance at 4300 and now the trade on Thursday becomes key – it is possible that we could start a short-covering rally here. However, the 3-star critical reversal day is still on 5/9-5/10 and that has to be navigated. Bitcoin is bouncing overnight Wednesday and that is market positive. Gold tested $1890 post-Fed and may have made a major low this week – the GDX rallied in 5-waves higher post-Fed and the gold stocks may have made a short-term low. Crude oil broke out above its coil pattern by vaulting above$108. The USD rolled over as traders sensed that the US buck may have peaked out over fears of a 0.75% Fed Funds hike in the near term.

5/04/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) After Chairman Powell denied that a 0.75% rate hike was even discussed by the FOMC, the SPX rallied into the close and tested 4308. Is this the start of a substantial rally? Perhaps, another rally day on Thursday could trigger more short covering in the SPX but the 3-star critical reversal day on 5/9-5/10 could end this rebound. The SPX has been acting in “true bear market fashion” since its high on 3/29 - big rally days that get followed by plunges to new lows – a follow through rally on Thursday would change this pattern. The 10-yr US rate rallied to new yearly highs at 3.11% early Wednesday before declining in a 3-wave correction – the bond market continues to be pressured down. This week contains some of the most dangerous astrology of the year and a large post-Fed rally into the 5/9-5/10 3-star critical reversal day could give us a high rather than a low. Bonds are testing lows overnight Wednesday and this argues for a 10-yr US rate testing highs on Thursday. Bitcoin is bouncing overnight Wednesday and this augurs for early strength in the SPX Thursday morning. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities. Crude oil broke out of its coil pattern and is testing $109 Wednesday night – XOM and CVX had big rally days. Gold rallied post-Fed to test $1900 overnight. Did gold make an intermediate-cycle low at $1849 earlier this week – the trade on Thursday should enlighten us. The USD broke down out of its sideways triangle after the threat of a short-term 0.75% Fed funds rate hike was dismissed by Powell.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX declined in an EW 5-waves down from 3/29 to 4062 – was this the end of a large corrective pattern? How we trade into early next week will tell us.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Did gold make an ICL at $1849.7 on Tuesday? How we trade on Thursday will give us a clue

• Stocks – The SPX gave us a big post-Fed rally to test 4300 - was the Monday low at 4062 an important low?  How we trade into Friday will tell us.  
• Gold – Gold spiked post-Fed to test $1900 and the GDX rallied in 5-waves up on the hourly chart. We like Barrick Gold on a 3-wave pullback.
• Silver – Silver tested its S2 support pivot at $22.182 early Wednesday before reversing higher in 5-waves to test $23.35 overnight.
• Bonds – Bonds continue to be under pressure over night Wednesday and the 10-yr US rate could rally back to test 3.11% on Thursday.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil broke out of its coil pattern and is looking to test $109 on Thursday.
• Dollar Index – The USD broke down out of its triangle pattern – does this mark an important high for the USD at 103.93?

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 5/4 Fed Day.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - May 3, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX continued its bounce from Monday into today but the price pattern still looks weak and corrective to us. Our bias is that the SPX is in a 3^rd wave down from 3/29 and will continue to decline after the FOMC minutes tomorrow and until we get a “real capitulation day” and maybe an overshoot to SPX 3800 by next week. To us the SPX price pattern from early Monday is a clear “bearish continuation pattern” which is very negative after the clustered series of 1-2, i-ii patterns down from 3/29. Our bias is that the market will continue down after the Fed minutes tomorrow and perhaps find a capitulation low by the 5/9-5/10 3-star critical reversal day. Bitcoin is bouncing Tuesday night and that gives the SPX a positive bias for early Wednesday. Gold tested $1849 pre-market and then spiked to $1878 – gold is close to finishing an Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) – a move down to $1830-$1840 is possible later this week. Crude oil is coiling for a break out of its triangle on the hourly chart. The USD is coiling in a sideways pattern on the hourly chart and looks to break out higher above 103.93.

5/02/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX continued its corrective rebound from Monday’s low but found resistance at SPX 4195, its R1 resistance pivot. The 10-yr US rate only declined in 3-waves from its 3.02% high on Monday and the allows a possible test of the highs on Wednesday after the FOMC minutes. The SPX has been acting in “true bear market fashion” since its high on 3/29 - big rally days that get followed by plunges to new lows. This week contains some of the most dangerous astrology of the year and a hard post-Fed decline into the 5/9-5/10 3-star critical reversal day is a possibility. Bonds are testing lows overnight Tuesday and this argues for a 10-yr US rate above 3.02% on Wednesday. Bitcoin is bouncing Tuesday night and this augurs for early strength in the SPX Wednesday morning. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities. Crude oil is close to a breakout in a coil pattern on the hourly chart and a test of $108 is possible later this week. Gold tested $1849 pre-market Tuesday and spiked to $1878 - we should be close to making an ICL after the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. The USD has traced out a bullish triangle on the hourly chart and a break higher post-Fed to test 103.93 is a possibility.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX continues to decline in a 3^rd wave down from 3/29 as we approach the Fed rate hike this week. The SPX made a low on Monday and is bouncing correctively into the Fed Day.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold lost $1920 support on a daily and weekly basis and now could test $1840 after the 5/4 Fed rate hike.

• Stocks – After Monday’s low, the SPX bounced correctively to test 4195 on Tuesday and there is a chance for one more thrust above 4200 early Wednesday.  Our bias is for more SPX decline post-Fed and a flush down to 3800 into early next week.  
• Gold – Gold plunged to test $1849 pre-market and then spiked higher to test $1878 – we could make an ICL soon after the FOMC minutes on Wednesday.
• Silver – Unlike gold, silver held up pre-market Tuesday as we approach the Fed Day tomorrow.
• Bonds – Bonds continue to be under pressure over night Tuesday and the 10-yr US rate could thrust above 3.02% after the Fed rate hike tomorrow.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is threatening to break out of its coil pattern on the hourly chart and test $108 on Wednesday.
• Dollar Index – The USD has traced out a bullish triangle on the hourly chart going into Fed Day – a break above 103.93 is possible.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 5/4 Fed Day.