All Star Market Timing

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 28, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX made a low early Wednesday at 4176 and that appears to have been the low for the week. The SPX rally on Thursday and the post-market reaction to the earnings from AAPL and AMZN (just a 3-wave correction in the QQQ after hours) argue that we are in a rally up into the Friday/Monday New Moon/solar eclipse. Even though it is a 50-50 proposition, our short-term bias has changed for more rally into Friday/Monday and then a pullback into the Fed Day on 5/4. However, the Euro/USD and Yen/USD meltdowns could continue into the weekend and provide a negative catalyst for global stock markets early next week. Bitcoin pulled back early in the session but ramped up into the close. The relief rally in bonds may be over for the moment and we may see one more low in bonds in the near term but we are very close to the start of a major rally. Crude oil rallied to $105.68 Thursday on its run higher into the weekend New Moon/solar eclipse. On its “Big Range” Day gold fell to $1870.9 before reversing higher to $1895 – gold and gold stocks could give us a pop into the weekend New Moon. The USD tagged 103.93 early in today’s session as the Yen and Euro continued to meltdown against the USD.

4/28/22 (Commentary for Thursday) Once again following Bitcoin’s lead, the SPX managed a big rally day Thursday and the corrective action after the earnings from AMZN and AAPL (just a 3-wave pullback in the QQQ) should give us follow through into the Friday/Monday New Moon/solar eclipse. The relief rally for bonds may have ended and the 10-yr US rate is bouncing higher but the DSI sentiment numbers argue that we are very close to the start of a major rally in US bonds. Bitcoin led the SPX down early, but ramped higher into the close and helped give the SPX a big rally day. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities. Today we stopped out of our SPY put when the SPX climbed above 4240 and added some GOLD (Barrick) shares for a rally into the weekend New Moon Timing Window. Crude oil is ramping higher into the weekend New Moon and tagged $105.68 today. Gold flushed pre-market to $1870 but reversed higher to test its R1 resistance pivot at $1904 overnight. The USD rallied to new highs for the year at 103.93 as the Yen and Euro continue to melt down.  The Yen and Euro may be close to ending their blood bath phase as we approach the weekend New Moon/solar eclipse.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX confirmed that the weekly low at $4162.9 was an important low and ramped to test 4308 near the end of the session. The SPX may now ramp higher into the Friday/Monday New Moon before pulling back into the 5/4 Fed Day.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold made a monthly close at $1942 on 3/31, so both the monthly and quarterly charts look bullish. On today’s “Big Range” for gold and silver, gold flushed early to test $1870 and then ramped up overnight to touch $1904.

• Stocks – Confirming the test of 4176 on Wednesday as an important low, the SPX ramped higher to tag 4308 near the close and looks to go higher into the weekend New Moon. The SPX projected a test of $4162 this week and we got it early Wednesday. Our bias is for more rally into the Friday/Monday New Moon/solar eclipse and then weakness after Monday.
• Gold – Gold flushed to $1870 early and then ramped higher to test $1904 overnight Thursday – more rally is possible going into the weekend New Moon.
• Silver – Silver flushed to test $22.94 early today and bounced to tag $23.40 overnight.
• Bonds – The relief rally in bonds may have ended on a bad bond auction Wednesday – the 10-yr US rate may bounce back up to test highs.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is ramping higher into the Friday/Monday New Moon and tagged $105.68 on Thursday.
• Dollar Index – The USD is rallying to test 103.4, highs for the year, as the Yen and Euro continue to melt down.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 4/29-5/2 New Moon/solar eclipse time window.

 

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - April 27, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX declined in an EW 5-wave down pattern into Tuesday’s close and closed under SPX 4200 support at 4176. On Wednesday, the SPX made a lower low at 4162 early, and then rallied into a positive close. Have we started a rally into the weekend New Moon/solar eclipse, or do we have lower to go into Friday? This is the second time since 1996 that equity mutual finds and ETFs saw outflows of more than $20 billion in back-to-back weeks – the other time was October 2008 during the great US financial crisis. Our bias is for lower lows into Friday/Monday and the New Moon/solar eclipse could make it scary. The Euro/USD and Yen/USD meltdowns could continue into the weekend and provide a negative catalyst for global stock markets. Bitcoin led the market higher today with a strong bounce but its pattern looked corrective. The relief rally in bonds may be over and the 10-yr US rate is bouncing higher. Crude oil looks like it is basing for a run higher into the weekend New Moon/solar eclipse. Gold is pulling back to $1877 overnight and may want to sell off into the New Moon. The USD is testing 103.4 overnight as the Yen and Euro continue to meltdown against the USD.

4/27/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) Once again following Bitcoin’s lead, the SPX managed a rally day today but the tone of the market looks weak. The relief rally for bonds may have ended and the 10-yr US rate is bouncing higher.  Bitcoin may have ended a corrective bounce today and how it trades pre-market Thursday will set the tone for the SPX open. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities. Today we added one SPY put and watched the SPX trade weakly into the close. Crude oil is testing its S2 pivot support line at $100.21 but appears to be coiling for a run into the weekend New Moon. Gold is flushing overnight to $1877 – closing below $1920 for two consecutive days was a sign of weakness. The USD is rallying to new highs for the year at 103.4 as the Yen and Euro continue to melt down.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX managed to tweak out a rally day on Wednesday but its overall tone looked weak. The SPX confirmed a 3^rd wave down from the 3/29 high which is bearish and may be looking to test $4000 by this weekend.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold made a monthly close at $1942 on 3/31, so both the monthly and quarterly charts look bullish. However, back-to-back daily closes below $1920 is a sign of weakness and gold is flushing down to test $1875 overnight.

• Stocks – The SPX managed to tweak out a rally day despite the weak tone of the market. The SPX confirmed a 3^rd wave down from the 3/29 high which projected a test of $4162 this week and we got it early today. Our bias is for more SPX weakness into the Friday/Monday New Moon/solar eclipse.
• Gold – After two daily closes below $1920, gold is falling overnight to test $1875.
• Silver – Silver is testing $23.18 overnight Wednesday and is feeling the strong USD.
• Bonds – The relief rally in bonds may have ended on a bad bond auction today – the 10-yr US rate may bounce back up to test highs.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing its S2 support pivot at $100.25 and is basing for a run higher into the weekend New Moon.
• Dollar Index – The USD is rallying to test 103.4, highs for the year, as the Yen and Euro continue to melt down.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 4/25-4/26 time window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 26, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The “dead cat bounce” from Monday did not even last overnight for the E-mini and the futures started declining before the open. The SPX opened at 4278 and dropped over 100 points before a bounce into the close. If the SPX opens strong after the good MSFT earnings early Wednesday, that could be another rally to short. However, back-to-back “single digit” new 52-wk hjghs on the NYSE and a TRIN-5 > 7 and a CNN Fear & Greed Index drop from 40 to 26 argue that the bear side is getting stretched here. Bitcoin led the market down today and needs a strong bounce early Wednesday to give the SPX and NDX a boost. The relief rally in bonds took us to 143’05 today but the 10-yr US rate gave us 5-waves down on the hourly chart which may be bullish for US bond prices. Crude oil is bouncing back over $100 Tuesday night and may start a run higher into the weekend New Moon/solar eclipse. Gold is slipping under $1900 Tuesday night and once again failed to close above $1920 during today’s Comex gold option expiration. The USD continues to power higher at 102.4 overnight.

4/26/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX opened big at 4278 but fell over a +100 points into the close. The relief rally in bonds from 4/21 gained some steam and got us to 143’05 – the DSI numbers for US bonds paint a bullish picture. Bitcoin undercut 38,000 and got to 37,665 as it led the SPX down into the close - an overnight rally would be welcome to the bulls.  Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities. Today we missed buying a SPY put early and watched the SPX decline steadily through the day. Crude oil rallied to above $100 Tuesday and may be on a run into the weekend New Moon. Gold didn’t close above $1920 on the close and that opens the door to an undercut low below $1891 on Wednesday. The USD rallied to new highs for the year at 102.4 on multi-year Euro weakness.  

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX gave us another big down day after the “dead cat bounce” petered out near the open. The SPX confirmed a 3^rd wave down from the 3/29 high which is bearish and may be looking to test $4000 by this weekend.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold made a monthly close at $1942 on 3/31, so both the monthly and quarterly charts look bullish. Gold struggled to stay above $l900 overnight Tuesday and that could give us a whoosh down tomorrow.

• Stocks – The “dead cat” bounce petered out pre-market and the SPX dropped another 100 SPX points on Tuesday. Early strength from the MSFT earnings report on Wednesday should be faded.  The SPX confirmed a 3^rd wave down from the 3/29 high which projected to test 4162 this week – we got to SPX 4175 near the close.
• Gold – Gold failed to close above $1920 again on today’s Comex gold option expiration – we could see a whoosh down early Wednesday.
• Silver – Silver tested $23.65 overnight Tuesday.
• Bonds – The relief rally continued, and bonds tested 143’05 as stocks plunged into the close.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil bounced above $100 and may be starting a run higher into the weekend New Moon/solar eclipse.
• Dollar Index – The USD rallied to test 102.4 – the high for the year.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 4/25-4/26 time window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - APril 25, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  We got a gap-down open on the SPX Monday, but no mini-crash. The SPX found support at 4200 - the intersection of the downtrend line from 4818 on 1/4/22 and the uptrend line from the Covid low on 4/23/2020 could give us a bounce while the market waits for the earnings from MSFT after the close on Tuesday.  Our bias is that we are getting a “dead cat bounce” that could take us to SPX 4350 or so. The relief rally in bonds took us to 142’12 but may be rolling over already. Bitcoin tested its S2 pivot support at 38261 pre-market and is rallying to 40540 overnight. Gold and gold stocks gave us a big gap down today going into Comex option expiration tomorrow and gold closed below important support at $1920 which could give us a big whoosh down tomorrow. The USD made highs for the year at 101.86.

4/25/22 (Commentary for Monday) The SPX gave us a gap-down open but not a mini-crash and we found support at SPX 4200 for a “dead cat bounce” that could take us into the MSFT earnings report after-market Tuesday. The relief rally in bonds from Wednesday continued into Monday and tested 142’12 before rolling over late – the DSI numbers for US bonds paint a bullish picture. Bitcoin is rallying over 40,000 Monday night and that augurs well for a positive SPX open on Tuesday.  Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities. Today we sold our SPX put early and are waiting for more rally on Tuesday to re-enter. The 10-yr US bond rate pulled back in 3-waves to test 2.76% and that supported the stock market. Crude oil pulled back to tag $95.42. GLD and the GDX both gapped down today and gold closed below key support at $1920 which is bearish for tomorrow’s Comex gold option expiration. The USD rallied to 101.86 which is the high for the year.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX gave us a hard day down on Friday, but after a gap-down day early Monday we got a relief rally that could hold up into the MSFT earnings after-market Tuesday. The SPX confirmed a 3^rd wave down from the 3/29 high which is bearish and may be looking to test $4162 this week.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold made a monthly close at $1942 on 3/31, so both the monthly and quarterly charts look bullish. Gold closed below key support at $1920 Monday and that could give us a whoosh down on tomorrow’s Comex gold option expiration.

• Stocks – After a gap-down open, the SPX found support at 4200 and is giving us a “dead cat” bounce that could carry us into late Tuesday. On Thursday, the SPX confirmed a 3^rd wave down from the 3/29 high which projects to test 4162 this week.
• Gold – Gold plunged below to $1892 early Monday and failed to close above $1920 which augurs for more weakness going into tomorrow’s Comex gold option expiration.
• Silver – Silver tested $23.42 on Monday before bouncing but typically trends down into the Comex option expiration on 4/26.
• Bonds – The relief rally continued and bonds tested 142’12 and helped give stocks a bounce.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil fell hard to test $95.42 as Chinese weakness is trying to take hold.
• Dollar Index – The USD rallied to test 101.86 – the high for the year.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 4/25-4/26 time window.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - April 24, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The big down day on Friday sets the SPX up for a gap-down open early Monday and a potential mini-crash. Last fall we argued that the 34-yr Fibonacci step out from the great Crash of 1987 would usher in a fierce bear market that could take the SPX down to test the Covid lows (-2400) by early 2023. The NYSE composite peaked in early Nov 2021 and the NDX peaked in Nov 2021 – that validates our market timing. We did expect that “spiking US rates” in October 2021 could usher in a potential crash in the fall of 2021 – that did not happen because the Chinese led credit contraction gave a “flight to quality” in US Treasury bonds and kept US Treasury rates low. However, US Treasury rates are now spiking and that sets the stage for a potential minicrash on Monday. With the USD at a multi-year weekly closing high above 101, how the Chinese Yuan/USD and Japanese Yen/USD exchange rate trades Sunday night could be crucial to US Treasury bonds – if the Chinese cheapen their currency against the USD Sunday night, that could cause US Treasury rates to spike. The relief rally in US bonds that started Wednesday looked corrective and may be over – higher rates could further pressure US stocks early Monday.

4/24/22 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX continued its free fall from Thursday and appears to be in a 3^rd wave down from the 3/29 high at SPX 4627. The big down day on Friday argues for a “gap-down” open on Monday and/or a mini-crash. The relief rally in bonds from Wednesday looks corrective and may reverse down by Monday’s open. Bitcoin is heading down Sunday evening and that is a negative tell for the market early Monday. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities. Friday we sold our TLT shares and added a one stock market hedge before the close. The 10-yr US bond rate climbed consolidated on Friday below 2.94% and bonds are rallying to the R1 resistance pivot at 140’29 Sunday night. Crude oil is falling Sunday night to test its S2 pivot support at $99.21. Gold is falling Sunday night to test important support at $1921 – the seasonal trend for gold is to decline into the 4/26 Comex Gold Option expiration. The USD is consolidating near its Friday high of 101.33 Sunday night.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX gave us a hard day down on Friday and is setting up for a “gap-down” open on Monday’s open or a mini-crash. The SPX confirmed a 3^rd wave down from the 3/29 high which is bearish and may be looking to test $4162 this week.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold made a monthly close at $1942 on 3/31, so both the monthly and quarterly charts look bullish. However, gold is falling to test $1920 Sunday night which is key support.

• Stocks – The SPX had a hard down day on Friday and is setting up for a gap-down open on Monday which could yield a minicrash. On Thursday the SPX confirmed a 3^rd wave down from the 3/29 high which projects to test 4162 this week.
• Gold – Gold is falling to test key support at $1920 Sunday night – seasonality has gold down into the 4/26 Comex gold option expiration.
• Silver – Silver is undercutting $24 Sunday and typically trends down into the Comex option expiration on 4/26.
• Bonds – The 10-yr US rate consolidated below 2.94% on Friday – bond prices are taking out Friday’s high Sunday night but the rally looks corrective.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing its S2 support pivot at $98.92 Sunday night.
• Dollar Index – The USD is consolidating near Friday’s high at 101.33 overnight Sunday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 4/25-4/26 time window.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 21, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX bounced to SPX 4512.94 early and then spent the rest of the day going down. The rally from 4/18 now looks corrective and the market trend looks down. We got big volatility in the SPX today as the VIX monthly expiration statistics warned us. The day after a monthly VIX expiration (3^rd Wednesday of the month) has given us an average of 105 SPX point daily range in the first three months of 2022 – three down and one up after today. Our bias was for a bounce to SPX 4500-4510 before a reversal down and it made it 4512.94 – we bought a single SPY put and sold it when we got an EW 5-waves down on the 5-min chart. Bitcoin rallied to 43010 early and sold off hard with the SPX. For Friday, we look for an early bounce in the SPX, but the trend is down and we could see lower lows.

4/21/22 (Commentary for Thursday) The SPX made its high for the day early at 4512 and then dropped like a stone the rest of the day. The day after a monthly VIX expiration (3^rd Wednesday of the month) has seen big down days (3 out of 4 times) so far in 2022. The SPX may have entered a 3^rd wave down from the 3/29 high and just a corrective bounce early Friday should be shorted. Bitcoin made a high at 43010 at 9:20 AM EST and then rolled over, leading the SPX down. Bitcoin is just getting a weak bounce overnight and that could be a weak sign for the SPX early Friday. Some analysts think that Bitcoin reversed higher from a “daily cycle low” early Monday but we need a strong reversal higher on Friday to convince us. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities. Today we sold our one SPY put before the close and added some TLT shares as we may have started a relief rally in bonds. The 10-yr US bond rate climbed to 2.94% before rolling over in the afternoon as bonds got a bounce. Crude oil bounced correctively from yesterday’s 5-wave down low at $100 and that looks bearish. Gold fell to test $1938 early Thursday before bouncing to tag $1955 overnight – the test of $2000 on 4/18 came in as a 3-star critical reversal day. The USD declined in just 3-waves into early Thursday and bounced impulsively during the day session.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX touched 4512 early Thursday and then dropped like a rock. The SPX confirmed a 3^rd wave down from the 3/29 high which is bearish.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold made a monthly close at $1942 on 3/31, so both the monthly and quarterly charts look bullish. Gold fell to $1938 early Thursday but then bounced to $1955 as the SPX sold off.

• Stocks – The SPX touched 4512 before dropping like a stone and confirming a 3^rd wave down from the 3/29 high.
• Gold – Gold fell to $1938 early Thursday before bouncing to $1955 – gold’s rally was tepid considering the drop in the SPX.
• Silver – Silver tested $26.49 on Monday and fell to test $24.48 on Thursday – commodities across the board got hit today.
• Bonds – The 10-yr US rate spiked to 2.94% but bonds didn’t make a lower low – this could be bullish divergence for bonds.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil in 5-waves to test $100 on Wednesday and just bounced correctively to $102 on Thursday – this is bearish action.
• Dollar Index – The USD gave us 3-waves down into early Thursday before a strong rally to 100.6.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 4/15-4/18 Full Moon Timing Window which includes a 3-star critical reversal day.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 20, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX tested 4488 early and then spent the rest of the day correcting – how we trade on Thursday will determine whether the rally from 4/18 is just an EW a-b-c bounce or a more substantial rally. We are expecting big volatility in the SPX tomorrow. The day after a VIX expiration (3^rd Wednesday of the month) has given us an average of 105 SPX points in the past three months – two down and one up day. Our bias is for an initial runup to SPX 4500-4510 and then a reversal down. If we get a big up day tomorrow, that will change our short-term bias. Bitcoin may have peaked today at 42295 before it reversed in 5-waves – the bounce overnight Wednesday may be corrective, but it does point to early strength in the SPX on Thursday. The SPX trade on Thursday will determine the short-term market trend and we will adjust accordingly. Traders are convinced that “peak inflation” is behind us and that the coming Fed rate hikes are “already priced into the stock market”. We are maintaining our ~80% cash holdings and 20% in the PM sector – we sold our GOLD and NEM shares today and expect lower prices into Comex gold option expiration next week. We expect the US economy to be in recession by Q4 and the 20-yr stock cycle points to much lower stock prices by the end of 2022/early 2023. We view the US financial war against Russia as highly destabilizing to the global USD hegemony and we could see enormous volatility in the Euro and Yen in April/May and a large USD increase in the price of gold in the second half of 2022. Crude oil tested its S1 pivot support at $100 and bounced back to $103 overnight. The USD declined in 5-waves into Wednesday and then bounced correctively – this may be a trend change event. The high USD is a headwind for the US multi-national companies.

4/20/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) The SPX made its high for the day at 4488 before correcting sideways into the close. Bitcoin made a high at 42295 before declining in 5-waves down and bouncing overnight. Bitcoin may be starting a decline here and that makes us cautious for Thursday. Some analysts think that Bitcoin reversed higher from a “daily cycle low” early Monday but we need more follow through Thursday to convince us. Our bias for tomorrow is a bounce to SPX 4500-4510 and then a big reversal down. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities. If the SPX rally extends above 4510 tomorrow, we will adjust accordingly. Today we sold our NEM and GOLD today as the PM sector may correct more into next week’s Comex gold expiration. Bonds rallied today and sent the 10-yr US bond rate back down to 2.82%. The fundamentals of this market are not stock friendly here – 1) we have a Fed that has lost its credibility on forecasting and containing inflation, 2) a crude oil price that more than doubled in the past 12 months and 3) a 2-yr/10-yr yield curve that inverted – a US recession by Q4 is likely. Also, the US-led financial war against Russia could lead to blow backs on the Euro, Yen and USD price of gold. Crude oil declined to test its S1 support pivot at $100 before bouncing back to tag $103 overnight. Gold fell to test $1945 Tuesday evening and then rallied Wednesday to touch its Person’s Pivot at $1961 – the test of $2000 on 4/18 came in as a 3-star critical reversal day. Bonds bounced on Wednesday and sent the 10-yr US rate back down to 2.82%.  The USD declined in 5-waves into Wednesday and is bouncing correctively overnight – this may be a trend change event.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX tested 4488 early Wednesday before going sideways into the close – our bias is for a move to 4500-4510 early Thursday before a reversal down. How the SPX trades on Thursday will determine the short-term trend.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold made a monthly close at $1942 on 3/31, so both the monthly and quarterly charts look bullish. Gold bounced back from its overnight low at $1945 and tested its Person’s pivot at $1961.

• Stocks – The SPX rallied to test 4488 early today and it looks like a run up to 4500-4510 early Thursday is in the cards before a reversal down.
• Gold – Gold tested $1945 overnight Tuesday and then bounced to tag its Person’s Pivot at $1961 today. The high on Monday at $2003 was the 3-star critical reversal day.
• Silver – Silver tested $26.49 on Monday and fell to test $25 early Wednesday.
• Bonds – Bonds bounced on Wednesday and the 10-yr US rate pulled back to 2.82%.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil fell to test $100 mid-day before rebounding to tag $103 overnight.
• Dollar Index – The USD gave us 5-waves down on the hourly chart and then a corrective bounce – we may be seeing a trend change event.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 4/15-4/18 Full Moon Timing Window which includes a 3-star critical reversal day for the SPX and gold.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 19, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX continued its rally from Monday’s close and tested 4471 – how we trade on Wednesday will determine whether the rally from Monday is just an EW a-b-c bounce or a more substantial rally. Earnings are rolling in and IBM, a safe haven for 2022, is up to $131.55 afterhours and NFLX is down big to $256 on big losses in subscribers. Bitcoin rallied to 41620 and tested its R1 pivot – how we trade overnight will guide the Wednesday morning open on the SPX. We looked for a short-covering rally to SPX 4480 today and we made it to SPX 4471. The SPX trade on Wednesday will determine the durability of this rally and we will adjust accordingly. Traders are convinced that “peak inflation” is behind us and that coming Fed rate hikes are “already priced into the stock market”. We are maintaining our ~80% cash holdings and 20% in the PM sector – we sold our SPY calls today and bought GOLD and NEM on gold’s big down day. We expect the US economy to be in recession by Q4 and the 20-yr stock cycle points to much lower stock prices by the end of 2022/early 2023. We view the US financial war against Russia as highly destabilizing to the global USD hegemony and we could see enormous volatility in the Euro and Yen in April/May and a large USD increase in the price of gold in the second half of 2022. After leaving the Full Moon Timing Window, crude oil got knocked down to $101.76 today. The USD rallied to 101.02 on Monday, the high for the year, as the 10-yr US rate made its high at 2.93%. The high USD is a headwind for the US multi-national companies.

4/19/22 (Commentary for Tuesday) The SPX gave us a “trend move” today and made it to test 4471 before a pullback into the close – it appeared that traders got over Fed governor Bullard’s talk of a 75 bps rate hike in May to catch up with inflation. Bitcoin may be giving us just a sideways EW a-b-c here and that makes us cautious for the SPX tomorrow. Some analysts think that Bitcoin reversed higher from a “daily cycle low” early Monday but we need more follow through Wednesday to convince us. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities. If the SPX rally extends, we will adjust accordingly. Today we sold our SPY calls and bought some GOLD and NEM on the decline in gold today. Bonds continue to grind lower here which is giving us the highest 10-yr US rate in years. The fundamentals of this market are not stock friendly here – 1) we have a Fed that has lost its credibility on forecasting and containing inflation, 2) a crude oil price that more than doubled in the past 12 months and 3) a 2-yr/10-yr yield curve that inverted – a US recession by Q4 is likely. Also, the US-led financial war against Russia could lead to blow backs on the Euro, Yen and USD price of gold. After traversing the Full Moon Timing Window, crude oil pulled back to test $102 Tuesday making the oil stocks one of the few sectors to close down today. Gold also fell hard to test $1945 Tuesday evening – the test of $2000 on 4/18 came in as a short-term high. Bonds are continuing their decline to 138’14 and so we are looking for the 10-yr US rate to test 2.95% early Wednesday.  The USD is making highs for the year Tuesday night at 101.04 and that is becoming a headwind for US multi-national companies.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX tested 4471 Tuesday and may have ended an EW a-b-c correction that started last week. How the SPX trades on Wednesday will enlighten us to the short-term trend.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold made a monthly close at $1942 on 3/31, so both the monthly and quarterly charts look bullish. After testing $2003 on Monday in the Full Moon Timing Window, gold is plunging to test $1945 Tuesday evening.

• Stocks – The SPX rallied to test 4471 today but we may have just finished an EW a-b-c correction. How the SPX trades on Wednesday will enlighten us as to how far this SPX can go.  We sold our SPY calls today before the close.
• Gold – Gold spiked to test $2003 Monday in the Full Moon Timing Window and now is testing $1945 Tuesday evening on the solar-lunar Big Range Day. The high on Monday at $2003 argues that it was the 3-star critical reversal day.
• Silver – Silver tested $26.49 on Monday and is falling to test $25 Tuesday evening.
• Bonds – Bonds continue to grind to new lows – 138’14 on Tuesday evening and that could give us a US 10-year rate above 2.95% early Wednesday.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil fell to 102.02 on Tuesday but the XLE held up reasonably well.
• Dollar Index – The USD is making highs for the year at 101.04 Tuesday night and is becoming a headwind for US multi-national companies.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 4/15-4/18 Full Moon Timing Window which includes a 3-star critical reversal day for the SPX and gold.

The Daily JDV Market Timer - April 18, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX declined into our 4/14-4/18 turn window which included the 4/16 Full Moon and the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 3/14 low on 4/17. On a whipsaw day, the SPX made an undercut low at 4370 but finished the session with a ramp higher. With the reversal higher in Bitcoin early in the day and its continued strength overnight Monday, we are looking for early strength in the SPX on Tuesday – a short-covering run to test SPX 4480 is a possibility. Overall, our bias is that the 4637 high on 3/29 was an important SECONDARY HIGH for the SPX and that we are now in a C-Wave down to test SPX 4167 – however, there is a possibility of a short-covering run to SPX 4500 by Wednesday. We are maintaining our ~80% cash holdings and 20% in the PM sector. We expect the US economy to be in recession by Q4 and the 20-yr stock cycle points to much lower stock prices by the end of 2022/early 2023. We view the US financial war against Russia as highly destabilizing to the global USD hegemony and we could see enormous volatility in the Euro and Yen in April/May and a large USD increase in the price of gold in the second half of 2022. Crude oil ramped higher to $109.2 today in the 4/16-4/18 Full Moon Timing Window. Gold also spiked higher to $2003 before correcting. The USD is rallying to 100.89 on overnight Monday, the high for the year, as the 10-yr US rate made its high at 2.868%.

4/18/22 (Commentary for Monday) On a whipsaw day, the SPX gave us an undercut low at 4370 and then finished the session with a ramp higher that almost took the SPX positive. With the reversal higher in Bitcoin today, we are bracing for a possible short-covering rally in the SPX early Tuesday.  Because we are in the orb of a 3-star critical reversal day for the SPX and the 34-day step out from the 3/14 low which fell on 4/17, we are open to the possibility of a strong short-covering rally in the SPX early Tuesday that could fill the gap at 4480. Bitcoin may have reversed higher from a “daily cycle low” early Monday and looks strong overnight – that should augur well for early strength in the SPX on Tuesday. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities. The fundamentals of this market are not stock friendly here – 1) we have a Fed that has lost its credibility on forecasting and containing inflation, 2) a crude oil price that more than doubled in the past 12 months and 3) a 2-yr/10-yr yield curve that inverted – a US recession by Q4 is likely. Also, the US-led financial war against Russia could lead to blow backs on the Euro, Yen and USD price of gold. Despite the Shanghai shutdown, crude oil bounced to test $109.2 today in our Full Moon Timing Window. Gold also spiked higher in today’s Full Moon Timing Window and tested $2003– did the 3-star critical reversal day on 4/15 come in as a high? Bonds continued their decline to 140’00 Monday and we got a higher 10-yr US rate to 2.868%. The USD is making highs for the year Monday night at 101.02.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The 34-day Fibonacci step out from 2/24 landed on 3/29 and peaked the bear market rally in the SPX and NDX – the plunge in the DJTA after 3/29 confirmed that top as an important high. The SPX made an undercut low today at 4370 and ramped higher into the close – did the 3-star critical reversal day come in as a low today?

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold made a monthly close at $1942 on 3/31, so both the monthly and quarterly charts look bullish. Gold gave us a 3-wave decline on Thursday to $1963  but bounced back to test $2003 on Monday – did the 3-star critical reversal day come in as a high today.

• Stocks – The spike in the 10-yr US rate to highs for the year at 2.868% on Monday pressured the SPX to an undercut low at 4370 and cast doubt on the “peak inflation” mantra of many traders. However, the SPX is in the orb of a 3-star critical reversal day and the way the SPX ramped higher into the close could see more follow through on Tuesday.
• Gold – Gold spiked to test $2003 today in the Full Moon Timing Window – did we make a high on the 3-star critical reversal day?  
• Silver – Silver spiked higher to test $26.50 but then corrected – tomorrow is a Big Range Day for silver and we should get some volatility.
• Bonds – Bonds made lower lows on Monday to 140’00 and that took the 10-yr US rate to 2.868% Monday afternoon.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil spiked to $109.2 today in the 4/15-4/18 Full Moon Timing Window.
• Dollar Index – The USD is making highs for the year at 101.02 Monday night.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 4/15-4/18 Full Moon Timing Window which includes a 3-star critical reversal day for the SPX and gold.

The Weekly JDV Market Timer - April 17, 2022

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week:  The SPX declined into our 4/14-4/18 turn window which includes the 4/16 Full Moon and the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 3/14 low. Will the SPX continue down into Monday which is part of the Full Moon Timing Window or will we reverse higher?  On Friday, the SPX sold off into the 3-day holiday weekend – the highest 10-yr US rate of the year at 2.835% contributed to the pressure on tech stocks on Friday. We believe that the SPX traded into a “bull trap” last week and we look for more downside on Monday. After an EW 5-waves down from the 3/29 high, the E-mini gave us essentially a “sideways up-down-up” correction from Monday evening into Wednesday’s close which looks bearish to us. Bitcoin has also traced out what appears to be a sideways EW a-b-c correction into Thursday. Overall, our bias is that the 4637 high on 3/29 was an important SECONDARY HIGH for the SPX and that we are now in a C-Wave down to test SPX 4167. We are maintaining our ~80% cash holdings and 20% in the PM sector. We expect the US economy to be in recession by Q4 and the 20-yr stock cycle points to much lower stock prices by the end of 2022/early 2023. We view the US financial war against Russia as highly destabilizing to the global USD hegemony and we could see enormous volatility in the Euro and Yen in April/May and a large USD increase in the price of gold in the second half of 2022. As we approached the 4/16 Full Moon, crude oil ramped higher to its R2 resistance pivot at $107.64 on Friday. Gold rallied into the Full Moon Timing Window and Mars Ingress on Thursday and then started to roll over. The USD rallied to 100.76 on Thursday, the high for the year, as the 10-yr US rate made its high at 2.835%.

4/17/22 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX was held up last week by “peak inflation” hopes after hot CPI and PPI numbers but the rise in the 10-yr US rate to highs for the year at 2.835% late Thursday began to challenge that idea. The NYSE market breadth tested multi-week highs at +2250 early Tuesday and +2000 mid-day Wednesday, and those early “rallies of hope” faded on Thursday. From overnight Monday to Wednesday’s close, the E-mini traced out a sideways EW a-b-c correction that is getting undercut overnight Sunday. Bitcoin also looks weak Sunday night and that could argue for a down SPX open early Monday. Our current holdings are ~80% cash and ~ 20% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities. The fundamentals of this market are not stock friendly here – 1) we have a Fed that has lost its credibility on forecasting and containing inflation, 2) a crude oil price that more than doubled in the past 12 months and 3) a 2-yr/10-yr yield curve that inverted – a US recession by Q4 is likely. Also, the US-led financial war against Russia could lead to blow backs on the Euro, Yen and USD price of gold. Despite the Shanghai shutdown, crude oil bounced into the 4/16 Full Moon and rallied to test $108 Sunday night. Gold only declined in 3-waves to $1963 on Thursday but bounced back smartly to test $1993 on Sunday night – will the 3-star critical reversal day on 4/15 may come in as a high? Bonds continued to fall to 140’08 Sunday night and that argues for a 10-yr US rate above 2.835%. The USD is testing highs for the week near 100.7 Sunday night and looks to go higher early Monday.

Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The 34-day Fibonacci step out from 2/24 landed on 3/29 and peaked the bear market rally in the SPX and NDX – the plunge in the DJTA after 3/29 confirms that top as an important high. The SPX declined has declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart from the 3/29 high and gave us just a sideways 3-wave correction last week – this is Bearish Price Action.

Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold made a monthly close at $1942 on 3/31, so both the monthly and quarterly charts look bullish. Gold gave us a 3-wave decline on Thursday but is bouncing back to test $1993 Sunday night. More rally into the 4/14-4/18 Full Moon Timing Window could give us an important short-term high.

• Stocks – The spike in the 10-yr US rate to highs for the year at 2.835% on Thursday cast doubt on the “peak inflation” mantra of many traders going into the 3-day holiday weekend. After an EW 5-waves down on the hourly from 3/29 to 4/11, the E-mini just gave us an EW a-b-c sideways correction into Wednesday’s close – the move down in the E-mini to undercut last week’s low validates this count. We believe that the bear market rally from 3/14 peaked on 3/29 – the rapid roll over of the DJTA from 3/29 is bearish for both stocks and the US economy.
• Gold – After just a 3-wave correction into Thursday to test $1963, gold rebounded Sunday night to test $1993.  Gold could make an important short-term high going into the 4/14-4/18 Full Moon Timing Window.
• Silver – Silver spiked to $26.21 overnight Sunday and could higher highs into Monday.
• Bonds – Bonds are making lower lows Sunday night at 140’08 and we could see the 10-yr US rate above 2.835% early Monday.
• Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing multi-week highs at $108 in the 4/15-4/18 Full Moon Timing Window.
• Dollar Index – The USD is testing highs for the week at 100.76 Sunday night and could go higher early Monday.

TURNING POINT DAY

The turn window for this week is the 4/15-4/18 Full Moon Timing Window.