Folks,
Market Observations for the Week: Despite Triple-Witching volatility, the SPX spiked higher on Friday and made a weekly close above its downtrend line from 1/04/22 and that is bullish. However, we are in the orb of a 3-star geo-cosmic turn window on 3/21 and that should bring us a short-term top here. We are now expecting a SPX pullback into Tuesday/Wednesday – the Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turn window in our work. The NYSE McClellan Oscillator spiked to 68.86 on Friday and needs to cool off for at least a few days. Just a 3-wave correction into Tuesday/Wednesday could set the market up for a run to SPX 4500 this week. Triple witching expiration on Friday could be very volatile with all the market hedging going on recently and we would use declines in the SPY, QQQ, AAPL, and CCJ shares as a chance to get long. The SPX marked a low at 4161.72 on 3/14 and our bias is that we have started a large bear-market rally that could gain >15% in a few weeks. The SPX continues to trade on Ukrainian war developments - a “real cease fire” respected by the Russians could generate a big, short-covering rally to 4650. Bitcoin is rolling over Sunday evening and may foreshadow some SPX weakness early Monday. Crude oil made a low in the 3/17 Full Moon Timing Window and could rebound into Monday. Gold declined to $1896 on Wednesday after the Fed rate hike and then pulled back after the spike higher to $1951 on Thursday but still made a weekly close above $1920. We think that silver and gold are making an important low here. After selling some AAPL shares Friday, we are in 70% cash and have a 30% allocation to gold/silver/platinum in various forms – we also added some shares in AG and SLV on Friday and believe that silver is making an important low. The USD appears to be doing a high-range EW a-b-c correction with the 10-yr US rate holding around 2.2%.
3/20/22 (Commentary for Sunday) The SPX rallied into the weekend and gave us a weekly close above the downtrend line from 1/4/2022 which is bullish, but we are expecting at least a 3-wave pullback into Tuesday/Wednesday. The Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turning point in our work and that also coincides with the 3-star geo-cosmic turn window on 3/21. Also, the spike in the NYSE McClellan Oscillator to 68 is a short-term overbought condition that needs correcting on Monday. We are holding ~70% cash and ~ 30% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities -we sold AAPL shares on Friday and added some SLV and AG shares. Bitcoin is rolling over to test its S2 support pivot at 40529 Sunday night which is bearish for the SPX early Monday. Crude oil is bouncing to test its R2 resistance pivot at $106.56 Sunday night. Gold historically makes a low on the first Fed rate hike and that may have been at $1895 late Wednesday. The pullback in gold and silver into Friday’s Full Moon and Triple-Witching Expiration may have been an IMPORTANT LOW. Solar-lunar cycles argue for big gold/silver volatility on overnight Sunday. Overall, we hold ~70% cash and 30% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms as we sold some AAPL shares on Friday and added some AG and SLV shares. Bonds bounced on Friday as the 10-yr US rate pulled back to 2.148%. The USD is close to completing an EW a-b-c correction with a symmetry target of 97.6.
Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – We made an important low at 4161.72 on 3/14 and have started a substantial bear market rally that could run up to test 4650 after a pullback early this week. We are holding about 70% cash in our accounts and ~30% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms + some newly acquired shares in SLV and AG.
Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Gold declined to $1896 Wednesday after the first Fed rate hike but managed to close the day above import support at $1920. Gold and silver pulled back correctively on Friday’s Full Moon and made an important low.
- Stocks – The SPX rallied into the weekend and 3-star geo-cosmic turn window on 3/21 – we are expecting at least a 3-wave pullback into Tuesday/Wednesday before a rally up to 4500.
- Gold – Gold declined to $1896 after the Fed rate hike and then made a higher low on Friday’s Full Moon – this looks like a setup for an important low.
- Silver – Silver pulled back into a higher low on Friday’s Full Moon. Silver is coiling for a quick run to $30. We added some shares in SLV and AG on Friday.
- Bonds – Bonds bounced on Friday as the 10-yr rate pulled back to 2.148%.
- Crude Oil – Crude oil made a low at $93 on the 3/17 Full Moon Timing Window and continue to bounce back to test $106 Sunday night.
- Dollar Index – The USD is tracing out a sideways EW a-b-c correction with a symmetry target of 97.6.
TURNING POINT DAY
The turn windows for this week are 3/22, the Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turn window in our work.
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