Folks,
Market Observations for the Week: The SPX peak on 3/22 at 4522 and started a correction on Wednesday that continued into Thursday. The pattern of the correction so far looks like a standard EW a-b-c with today being the “Wave B” segment. However, since SPX 4522 peak correlated with a 3-star geo-cosmic critical reversal day, we could see a scary selloff in the “Wave C” component into 3/25-3/28. There is a potential “panic day” on 3/25 which comes from adding the “1974-1987” time fractal to the bull market starting day from March 2009. The last “panic day” on 1/28/2022 gave us a big reversal higher in the SPX. Are we starting a C-Wave down here that could undercut SPX 4176 (our EW alt count) or just a corrective pullback that back tests the downtrend line from 1/04/2022 in a rally up to ~5100? We will probably find out on Friday. We are getting more cautious here as our “alternate EW-count on the SPX” may have completed its rally pattern near the 3/22 close at SPX 4522. We are now in 70% cash and 30% PM holdings. Bitcoin led the SPX higher today and tested 44340. Crude oil rolled over Thursday and tested $110.71 into the close of the session, but the oil stocks held up well today. Gold rallied up to test $1967 during the day – a close above $1952 would be bullish. The USD is wedging higher on the hourly chart and looks close to breaking out to 99.
3/24/22 (Commentary for Thursday) Despite the NATO meeting with the intensified sanctions against Russia, the SPX managed to rally up in a B-Wave and test the SPX 4522 high from Tuesday. The SPX correction patten from Tuesday looks to be morphing into an EW “flat correction” with a C-Wave down coming into Friday which has a potential “panic day signature” on it. The SPX finished an EW 5-wave rally on the hourly chart into the 3/21-3/22 turn window which included a 3-star critical reversal day and still could correct hard into 3/25-3/28. The AAII investment survey saw a large swing from last Thursday as the Bearish % dropped 15% to 35.4% and the Bullish % rose to test highs for 2022 at 32.8%. Our current holdings are ~70% cash and ~ 30% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities. Following Bitcoin’s overnight strength, we could see early stock market strength into Friday up to SPX 4530. Crude oil rolled over to test $110.67 during the day, but the XLE continued to hold up around 77. After testing $1910 Tuesday, gold powered up to test $1967 during Thursday’s session and bullishly closed above the key $1952 level – solar-lunar cycles are predicting big volatility into Friday/Monday. Bonds continued to consolidate on Thursday and the 10-yr US rate closed around 2.34%. Higher rates continue to support the USD and a break higher out of its sideways pattern to 99 looks imminent.
Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX rallied into the 3/21-3/22 turn window Tuesday which includes a 3-star critical reversal day and started a correction on Wednesday – time fractals point to a potential “panic day” on 3/25. We are holding about 70% cash in our accounts and ~30% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms.
Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Our bias is that gold made an important low at $1895 on Fed rate-hike day last week and we have a symmetry target of $1980 in the near term.
- Stocks – From 3/14, the SPX completed a 5-wave rally to 4522 late Tuesday and started a correction – we may have seen a B-Wave test of 4522 late Thursday. Our bias is for more correction into Friday which has a possible “panic-day” signature.
- Gold – Gold closed above $1952 today and is now in bullish mode. We have a symmetry target to $1980.
- Silver – Silver rallied close to our symmetry target of $26.20 and then gave us a sideways correction – we are looking for a test of $26.70 on Friday.
- Bonds – Bonds continued to consolidate sideways on Thursday as the 10-yr US rate lined out to 2.34%.
- Crude Oil – Crude oil is hugging its Person’s Pivot near $113 overnight Thursday and the XLE held up around 77.
- Dollar Index – The USD appears to be breaking down out of its wedge Thursday and testing 98.49.
TURNING POINT DAY
The turn windows for this week are 3/22, the Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turn window in our work.
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