Folks,
Market Observations for the Week: The SPX peak on 3/22 at 4522 and started a correction on Wednesday. Since, this peak correlated with a 3-star geo-cosmic critical reversal day, we could see a scary selloff into 3/25-3/28. There is a potential “panic day” on 3/25 which comes from comparing a “1974-1987” time fractal to the bull market from March 2009. The last “panic day” on 1/24/2022 gave us a big reversal higher in the SPX. Are we about to start a C-Wave down here that could undercut SPX 4176 (our EW alt count) or just a corrective pullback that back tests the downtrend line from 1/04/2022 in a rally up to ~5100? We will probably find out by Friday. The SPX did rally into the 3/21-3/22 turn window that includes a 3-star geo-cosmic reversal day and that could give a bigger correction than many traders expect. We are getting more cautious here as our “alternate EW-count on the SPX” may have completed its rally pattern near the 3/22 close at SPX 4522. After selling our CCJ shares Tuesday, we are now in 70% cash and 30% PM holdings. Bitcoin tested its R2 resistance pivot at 43578 – this is arguing for early SPX strength on Thursday. Crude oil is testing $116 overnight and the oil stocks held up well today. Gold powered up to test $1949 overnight Wednesday – our bias is that gold made an important low at $1895 on Fed Day last week and then a higher low at $1910 Tuesday morning in the orb of the 3-star geo-cosmic critical reversal day. The USD is wedging higher on the hourly chart and looks close to breaking out to 99.
3/23/22 (Commentary for Wednesday) After peaking at 4522 late Tuesday, the SPX pulled back on Wednesday and looks to correct more into Friday which has a potential “panic day signature” on it. The SPX finished an EW 5-wave rally on the hourly chart into the 3/21-3/22 turn window which included a 3-star critical reversal day and could correct more into 3/25-3/28. It could take more downside volatility here to correct the large overbought condition in the SPX. Following Bitcoin’s overnight strength, we could see early strength in the SPX on Thursday, but are expecting more correction into the weekend that could get scary. We sold our CCJ shares Tuesday and today we sold our SLV and AG shares. This takes our current holdings to ~70% cash and ~ 30% in physical gold/silver/platinum and PM equities. Bitcoin continues to hold above its Person’s Pivot at ~43000 overnight – this bodes well for the SPX early Thursday. Crude oil is testing $116 overnight Thursday and appears to be rallying impulsively. The XLE continued to hold up around 77 during the day. After testing $1910 Tuesday, gold powered up to test $1949 overnight Wednesday – solar-lunar cycles are predicting big volatility from Wednesday into Friday. Bonds bounced Thursday as the 10-yr US rate corrected in 3-waves down to 2.30%. Higher rates continue to support the USD and a break higher out of its sideways pattern looks imminent.
Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) – The SPX rallied into the 3/21-3/22 turn window Tuesday which includes a 3-star critical reversal day and started a correction on Wednesday – time fractals point to a potential “panic day” on 3/25. We are holding about 70% cash in our accounts and ~30% in gold/silver/platinum in various forms.
Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) – Our bias is that gold made an important low at $1895 on Fed rate-hike day last week and we have a symmetry target of $1980 in the near term.
- Stocks – From 3/14, the SPX completed a 5-wave rally to 4522 late Tuesday and started a correction – we sold some SPY puts today. Our bias is for more correction into Friday which has a possible “panic-day” signature.
- Gold – The banksters slammed gold down to $1910 early Tuesday before it rebounded to test $1949 Wednesday evening. A break above $1952 would be bullish.
- Silver – Gold took out Tuesday’s high but silver did not. However, the silver stock WPM got bought hard after hours.
- Bonds – Bonds rebounded today as the 10-yr US rate dropped to 2.3%.
- Crude Oil – Crude oil is testing $116 overnight Wednesday and appears to be rallying impulsively.
- Dollar Index – The USD is close to a break out higher to 99 from its sideways pattern.
TURNING POINT DAY
The turn windows for this week are 3/22, the Tuesday after a monthly option expiration is a turn window in our work.
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